globale markedstrends og forventninger · 2020. total installed base (mwe) forecast cumulative...

Globale markedstrends og forventninger Gastekniske Dage 2018 8 May 2018

Lindsay Sugden [email protected] +45 20 74 40 90

John Murray [email protected] +44 131 625 1007

Dina Darshini [email protected] +44 131 625 3334

mailto:[email protected]







2 Experts in New Energy Gastekniske Dage 8 May 2018

About Delta-ee

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Agenda

European CHP market status & outlook Main market drivers Case study: Germany Implications: Capturing energy market value

Source: Delta-ee Distributed Power Service S D lt Di t ib t d P S i


European CHP market status

- 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000

MaltaCyprus

LuxembourgIreland

SloveniaEstoniaGreeceCroatia

BulgariaLatvia

LithuaniaPortugalRomaniaHungaryBelgium

SpainSlovakia

AustriaCzech Republic

SwedenDenmark

FinlandFrance

United KingdomPoland

ItalyNetherlands

Germany

CHP Cumulative Installed Capacity (MWe)

DK: 2 x as much CHP capacity per person as Germany

Source: Delta-ee Distributed Power Service


European market outlook: Installed base to remain stable at ~100-150 GWe

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tota

l ins

talle

d ba

se (M

We)

Forecast cumulative installed capacity of CHP in Europe by size band

<= 100 kWe > 100 kWe to 1 MWe

>1 MWe to 2 MWe > 2 MWe to 10 MWe

> 10 MWe +

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tota

l ins

talle

d ba

se (M

We)

Forecast cumulative installed capacity of CHP in Europe by prime mover

Steam TurbineCombined Cycle Gas TurbineGas TurbineInternal Combustion Engine

>10 MWe

2-10 MWe

Steam Turbine

Gas Turbine

Gas Engine (ICE)

1-2 MWe 0.1-1 MWe

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine



EU outlook: Most change expected in the gas engine sector

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tota

l ins

talle

d ba

se (M

We)

Forecast cumulative installed capacity of CHP in Europe by prime mover

Steam TurbineCombined Cycle Gas TurbineGas TurbineInternal Combustion Engine

Steam Turbine

Gas Turbine

Gas Engine (ICE)

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2017 2020 2022

Annu

al in

stal

led

capa

city

(MW

e)

Europe: Projected gas engine sales

0.4 - 1 MWe 1 - 2 MWe 2 - 5 MWe

5 - 10 MWe 10 + MWe

0.4-1 MWe

1-2 MWe

2-5 MWe

5-10 MWe

>10 MWe



EU Outlook: CHP market drivers

€

Increasing electricity prices

Policy (efficiency, carbon) Increasing need for flexibility

Manufacturer push


0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Annu

al in

stal

led

capa

city

(MW

e)

Historic & forecast annual installed CHP capacity

0.4 - 1.0 MWe 1-2 MWe 2-5 MWe 5-10 MWe 10+ MWe

Case-Study: Germany – market development

Biogas-led market Natural gas-led market

.

1

FIT for biogas introduced

4

Change of policy

5

CHP Law uncertainty

CHP Law incentivising large flexible plants

7

2

EEG uncertainty

Revised EEG

6

Improved biogas

incentive

3



Case Study Germany:190 MWe CHP plant feeding District Heating network & exporting elec to grid

190 MW elec. capacity Excess power exported to the grid (incentivised by CHP law) 192 MW thermal capacity Supplying district heating network Integrated heat storage unit (60m high)

To be commissioned this year, replaces coal fired power station


Implications: How can CHP capture future energy market value?

High part load efficiencies… gas engines Exporting to the grid Combined with thermal stores

Biogas: Too costly?

Biomethane: Emerging…

Lower carbon CHP

Flexible

Decarbonised

CHP plants that can operate flexibly e.g.

Highly policy dependent, but CHP will maximise its value gains if it is:…


Thank you

For more information, visit Delta-ee’s Distributed Power Service page https://www.delta-ee.com/DPS

https://www.delta-ee.com/DPS




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Copyright © 2018 Delta Energy & Environment Ltd. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of Delta Energy & Environment Ltd. Unless otherwise credited all diagrams in this report belong to Delta Energy & Environment Ltd. Important This document contains confidential and commercially sensitive information. Should any requests for disclosure of information contained in this document be received, we request that we be notified in writing of the details of such request and that we be consulted and our comments taken into account before any action is taken. Disclaimer While Delta Energy & Environment Ltd (‘Delta-ee’) considers that the information and opinions given in this work are sound, all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgement when making use of it. Delta-ee does not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in tie report and assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Delta-ee will not assume any liability to anyone for any loss or damage arising out of the provision of this report. The report contains projections that are based on assumptions that are subject to uncertainties and contingencies. Because of the subjective judgements and inherent uncertainties of projections, and because events frequently do not occur as expected, there can be no assurance that the projections contained herein will be realised and actual events may be different from projected results. Hence the projections supplied are not to be regarded as firm predictions of the future, but rather as illustrations of what might happen. Parties are advised to base their actions of an awareness of the range of such projections, and to note that the range necessarily broadens in the latter years of the projections.

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