global water?

The Environment InstituteWhere ideas grow

This world’s water - have we got enough?

Mike Young Executive Director, The Environment Institute

The Environment Institute

Life Impact The University of Adelaide

Global water?• Energy• Health• Climate change• Supply• People• Challenges



Energy



Australia

WorldPrimary Energy



Where could we go?



Nicholson, Biegler & Brook (2010)

“How carbon pricing changes the relative competitiveness of low-carbon baseload

generating technologies”

Energy doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.039

Technology cost comparisons – should nuclear be part of the mix?



Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions



Water



Health• 3,900 children under 5 die every day from

water supply & sanitation related diseases• MDG to halve the number people without

access to drinking water and sanitation by 2015– Drinking water goal expected to be met– Sanitation goal will not be met



MDG Sanitation Target Progress



Global flow and use

70% Agriculture, 20% Industry & 10% Urban

After Molden 2007



Global water scarcity

After Molden 2007



International Trade

After Hoekstar & Chapagain 2007



Causes increasing water scarcity• Adverse climate change• Population increase• Increased living standards• Over-exploitation• Declining water quality



Threats to Biodiversity and Water



Climate



Getting hotter



Has been getting drier in south & east



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Rainfall for Jarrahdale

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S tre a m in flo w fo r P e rth d a m s (P rio r to S tirlin g D a m )

PERTH

- 1%

- 3%



With half as much water, how much can you use?

Users

Environment

River Flow

Environment

River Flow

Users

River Flow

Environment

Users



Global impacts of climate change• Some areas get wetter and warmer• Some areas get drier and warmer• The aggregate affect of climate change on

water supplies is expected to be negative.– By 2030 child malnutrition is predicted to

increase by 20%.



People



World Population



One more Australian every 1 minute 18 seconds

Source: ABS, 2008



An emerging gap



Water scarcity gap – billions m3

After 2030 Water Resources Group



MENA = Middle East & Northern Africa



Water stressed people

After OECD 2009



The reality1. Failure to provide reliable access to water and sanitation services

is one of humankind’s greatest failings.2. By 2030, over half the world’s population is expected to be living

in a water stressed region.3. Demand is growing and supply costs are rising.4. Health and quality of many rivers and aquifers is declining.

Restoration is a non-trivial challenge!5. The aggregate affect of climate change on water supplies is

expected to be negative.– By 2030 child malnutrition is predicted to increase by 20%.

6. The rate of change necessary to close the gap is an order of magnitude faster than has been achieved in recent times.



Avoiding the crisis1. Parallel investments in governance, the development

of taxation systems, the removal of market distortions and freer trading arrangements for agricultural products.

2. Freer international trading arrangements will significantly reduce the costs of facilitating adjustment and attaining MDG targets.

3. The early introduction of greenhouse gas trading or taxation arrangements will reduce the costs of achieving a transition

• {Gravity is cheap.}



Pricing arrangements1. In India, 15% of food is produced from

subsidised groundwater depletion.– Subsidies need to be phased out.

2. In many cases, the poorest of the poor would be better off paying the full cost of supply

– The cost of obtaining access to water from other sources a central source and the impact of unsanitary conditions on them is enormous.



GovernanceCorruption has been estimated to be raising the cost of achieving the MDG by $50 billion per year



Financing investment (3 T’s)

After Marin and OECD 2009



Seven global observations1. When water is mismanaged, economic growth and development is inordinately difficult. 2. Globally, there appears to be under-investment in water.3. When accelerated investment is coupled with improvements in governance and water policies,

the amount that needs to be invested in the water can be reduced significantly.4. For many people, the lack of access to reliable clean water and adequate sanitation services

means that these people cannot participate in a green economy. 5. Investment in the development of water entitlement and allocation systems designed to both

ensure the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services and, also, to facilitate adjustment in the way water resources are used can be expected to pay long-term dividends.

6. The cost of resolving the constellation of water scarcity crises emerging around the world depends upon the extent of commitment to water policy reform and the development of improved governance arrangements.

7. The resolution of global water supply problems is heavily dependent upon the degree to which agricultural water use can be improved

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www.adelaide.edu.au/environment

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global water?

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