global warming, basics and measures
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Climate Change
Teaching Unit: Scientific Basics of Climate Change
http://www.seso
lar.ch/energie.jpg
Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 1
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Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 2
Structure of the Teaching Unit: Engineering, Innovation
Climate Change Possibilities to Tackle Climate Change
with Technological and Economical Means
Lecture 1: Global warming, basics and measures, IPCC
Lecture 2: Latest Measures, Emissions by Sectors
Lecture 3: UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
Lecture 4: Greenhouse gas inventoryLecture 5: Direct and indirect land use change (dLUC/iLUC)
Lecture 6: Rainforest: Climate Impact and protection REDD
Lecture 7: The EU Biomass regulations
Lecture 8: Relevant renewable technologies
Lecture 9: Geo engineering and Adaptation Strategies
Lecture 10: Current Indonesian Greenhouse Gas Inventory
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Structure of Lecture 1
1.1 Scientific basics of global warming and climate change
1.2 Greenhouse gases and warming potentials
1.3 The 2 target, tipping points
1.4 IPCC, structure and reports
"Engineering, Innovation ClimateChange Possibilities to Tackle
Climate Change with Technologicaland Economical Means"
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1.1 Climate protection a global challenge
Indonesia/Sumatra
AustriaAfrica
Arctic
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1.1 Impacts of climate change
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1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect Basics
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http://www.co2crc.com.au/images/imagelibrary/gen_diag/greenhouseeffect_media.jpg
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1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect - Radiation
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http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/images/spectrum.jpg
On the earths surface ultraviolet radiation is converted in Infrared(heat) radiation
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1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect
http://www.grida.no/_res/site/Image/series/vg-africa
/graphics/10-threefactors.jpgThe greenhouse effect isabsolutely necessary for life
on Earth. The average
temperature at the surface of
the earth is plus 15 C,
without the natural
greenhouse effect, it wouldbe minus 18 C. In the
Earth's atmosphere
greenhouse gases like water
vapor, carbon dioxide and
methane are responsible for
the greenhouse effect sincethe origin of Earth, having a
decisive influence on the
climate history of the past
and the present climate.
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1.1.3 Planets and their Atmospheres
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1.3.3 Land areas warm more than the oceans
Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_WatsonSpeech: Fig 13; Urquelle: IPCCC2001_TAR1 Fig.9.10d, p.547 (vereinfacht)Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 10
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1.1.4 Summary Green House Effect
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1.1.5 Annual & global mean energy balance
www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-r
eport/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf
Estimate of the Earths annual and global mean energy balance. Over the long term, the amount of incoming solar radiation
absorbed by the Earth and atmosphere is balanced by the Earth and atmosphere releasing the same amount of outgoing
longwave radiation. About half of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the Earths surface. This energy is transferred to
the atmosphere by warming the air in contact with the surface (thermals), by evapotranspiration and by longwave radiation
that is absorbed by clouds and greenhouse gases. The atmosphere in turn radiates longwave energy back to Earth as well as
out to space. Source: Kiehl and Trenberth (1997).
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1.1.5 Energy Balance Board Picture (Summary)
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1.2 Greenhouse Gases
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Source: http://www2.cplan.org.uk/
Carbon dioxide: It is responsible for 63% of man-made global warming. One of the main sources of
CO2 in the atmosphere is the combustion of fossil
fuels - coal, oil and gas.
Nitrous oxide: Nitrous oxide is responsible for
6% of man-made global warming. Emission
sources include nitrogen fertilizers, the
combustion of fossil fuels and some industrial
processes, including nylon production.
Methane: Methane, the next most common
greenhouse gas after CO2, is responsible for19% of global warming from human activities.
One reason behind rising methane emissions is
the expansion of livestock farming due to the
growing consumption of meat and dairy
products.
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1.2 Greenhouse Gases and warming potencial
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The relevant Unit is the
so-called radiative forcing
in Watts per square
meter (W/m2). The unit
indicates how much the
radiation household is
changing by a specific
gas.
The current
anthropogenic
greenhouse gases cause
a disturbance of the
radiation household of
2.7 Watt/m (with an
uncertainty of +/-15%).
60% goes to the account
of CO2, 40% are caused
by other gases.
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1.2.1 Radiation transmitted by the Atmosphere The figure shows the major absorbing (and
scattering, other than aerosols) constituents
of the atmosphere for shortwave and
longwave wavelengths and their impact on
atmospheric transmission.
Obviously the atmospheric transmission
depends on the concentrations of these
constituents, but the figures given might be
taken as typical. In the Ultraviolet, Ozone is
primarily responsible for solar radiation
absorption. At visible wavelengths, the main
factors are Rayleigh scattering and aerosols.
At thermal wavelengths, water vapour and
CO2 are the most important constituents.
Clouds also affect atmospheric transmission.
Low, thick cloud primarily reflect shortwave
radiation, whereas high thin clouds allow
most shortwave radiation through but absorb
longwave radiation.
Aerosols have a range of complicated
effects on radiation. Whilst many aerosols
such as sulfates and nitrates reflect most
shortwave radiation, black carbon absorbs
most of it. Another important role of aerosolsis to act as cloud condensation nuclei which
enable water vapour in the atmosphere to
condense and coalesce. Interesting biogenic
sources include volatile organic compounds
(VOCs) and other materials emitted from
forests (Spracklen et al., 2008) and volatile
sulphur compounds emitted both by
terrestrial and marine biota.
Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 16 http://www2.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~plewis/geogg124/carbonCycle.html
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1.2.2 Cooling Factors in Climate System
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1.2.3 Albedo
The albedo of an object is a measure of how
strongly it reflects light from light sources such asthe Sun. It is therefore a more specific form of the
term reflectivity. Albedo is defined as the ratio of
total-reflected to incident electromagnetic radiation.
It is a unitless measure indicative of a surface's or
body's diffuse reflectivity. The word is derived from
Latin albedo "whiteness", in turn from albus "white",
and was introduced into optics by Johann Heinrich
Lambert in his 1760 work Photometria. The range of
possible values is from 0 (dark) to 1 (bright).
Fresh asphalt 0.04Worn asphalt 0.12
Conifer forest(Summer) 0.08 to 0.15Deciduous trees 0.15 to 0.18Bare soil 0.17Green grass 0.25Desert sand 0.40New concrete 0.55Ocean Ice 0.50.7Fresh snow 0.800.90Clouds 0.1 - 0,8
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1.2.4 Integrated RF over two time horizons
www.ipcc.c
h/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.p
df
Figure Integrated RF of year 2000 emissions over
two time horizons (20 and 100 years). The figure
gives an indication of the future climate impact of
current emissions. The values for aerosols and
aerosol precursors are essentially equal for the
two time horizons. It should be noted that the RFs
of short-lived gases and aerosol depend critically
on both when and where they are emitted; the
values given in the figure apply only to total globalannual emissions. For organic carbon and Black
carbon (BC), both fossil fuel (FF) and biomass
burning emissions are included. The uncertainty
estimates are based on the uncertainties in
emission sources, lifetime and radiative efficiency
estimates.
Climate or radiative forcing is a way to
measure how substances such asgreenhouse gases affect the amount of
energy that is absorbed by the atmosphere.
An increase in radiative forcing leads to
warming while a decrease in forcing
produces cooling.
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1.2.5 The present Carbon Cycle
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1.2.5 Carbon Cycle in managed ecosystems
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Source: The main greenhouse gas emission sources/removals and processes in managed ecosystems (After IPCC
Volume 4 Chapter. 1 Introduction HWP=Harvested wood products).
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1.2.5 The present Carbon Cycle
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1.2.6 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
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Objected rise of global CO2 concentration is caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
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1.2.6 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2
http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/60/104260-004-139F9FCD.gif
Shift in atmospheric concentrationof CO2 within the last about 150
years from 280 to 380 ppm
(Keeling Curve)
Main cause: increasing burning of
fossile carbon material like oil, coal
and natural gas Other non-anthropogenic causes
like overexploitation of forests
(especially rain forests) and
increase in animal factory farming
because of growing consumption
of meat Other non-anthropogenic causes
like natural variations in solar
activity
The Keeling Curve, named after American climate scientist
Charles David Keeling, tracks changes in the concentration of
carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earths atmosphere at a research
station on Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Although these concentrations
experience small seasonal fluctuations, the overall trend shows
that CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere.
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1.2.6 Global temperature change in detailGlobal temperature change according to the three major compilations based on measured
surface temperatures: GISS, HadCRU and NCDC. They are expressed as the temperaturedifference (anomaly) with respect to the 1901-2000 average as the baseline.http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/03/01/global-average-temperature-increase-giss-hadcru-and-ncdc-compared/
GISS: Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
HadCRUT3: Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
NCDC: National Climatic Data Center (US) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html
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1.2.7 CO2 Emissions from industrial prozesses
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1.2.8 Correlation between GHG Emissions and
Prosperity
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1.3 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling
The drill head (on the left) cutsaway a ring of ice approx. 2 cm
wide with an inner diameter of 98
mm. The ice core slides into the
inner core barrel (with the spirals),
while the chips move up between
the inner core barrel and the outer
barrel. The brass section is the
pump, which pumps drill liquid with
chips into the chips chamber, where
the chips are retained before the
drilling liquid is recycled through thehollow shaft. In reality, both the
inner core barrel and the chip
chamber are about 4 meters long,
but they have been shortened here
for clarity.Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 28
Source: http://neem.dk/about_neem/drillingicecores/
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1.3 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling
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Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/
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1.3 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling
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Source: bbc
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1.3.1 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling
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Source: http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/cryosphere/6a.html
19 cm long section of Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core from 1855 meters showing annual
layer structure illuminated from below by a fiber optic source. Section contains 11 annual layers with
summer layers (arrowed) sandwiched between darker winter layers. Image source: Wikimedia
Commons. => Layer structure depends on the former temperature
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1.3.2 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling
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Source: http://www.awi.de/de/forschung/fachbereiche/geowissenschaften/glaziologie/palaeoclimate/gases_in_ice_cores/
Bubble enclosures in polar ice cores. The
investigation of this gas by careful extraction andhigh precision analysis allows to reconstruct
atmospheric trace gas concentrations over the last
approximately 500,000 years.Gas extraction from ice cores
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1.3.3 Correlation of Temperature and CO2
Emission
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1.3.3 Fluctuation of Climate in the Past
Rahmstorf, S., Timing of abrupt climate change: a precise clock, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1510, 2003
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are rapid climate fluctuations. They occurred 25
times during the last glacial period.
The course of a D-O event sees a rapid warming of temperature, followed by a
cool period lasting a few hundred years. This cold period sees an expansion of
the polar front, with ice floating further south across the North Atlantic ocean.
The processes behind are still unclear.
Some scientists claim that the events occur quasi-periodically with a
recurrence time being a multiple of 1,470 years, but this is debated.
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Source: Copenhagen Diagnoses 2008. www.copenhagendiagnoses.com
1.3.4 Northern Hemisphere reconstructed
temperature change since 200 AD
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1.3.5 Atmospheric concentrations of LLGHGs
www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf
Figure: Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHG) over the last 2,000
years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are
parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per
million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample.
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1.3.6 Climate change in the Past
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/global-jan-dec-error-bar.gif
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Source: Eckhard Rebhan (Univ. Dsseldorf)
Since 1850 in atmosphere concentration of methane doubled, of CO2 increased by 30 %
Temperature and CO2 concentration correlate.
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1.3.7 CO2 Concentration and Temperature Summary
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1.3.8 Past Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations and
Future Projections
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Structure of CO2
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1.4 The two-degree target some basics Global mean temperature increases of up to 2C (relative to pre-industrial levels) are
likely to allow adaptation to climate change for many human systems at globallyacceptable economic, social and environmental costs. However, the ability of many
natural ecosystems to adapt to rapid climate change is limited and may be exceeded
before a 2C temperature increase is reached.
A global mean temperature increase greater than 2C will result in increasingly costly
adaptation and considerable impacts that exceed the adaptive capacity of many
systems and an increasing and unacceptably high risk of large scale irreversible
effects. In order to have a 50% chance of keeping the global mean temperature rise below 2C
relative to pre-industrial levels, atmospheric GHG concentrations must stabilise below
450ppm CO2 equivalence. Stabilisation below 400 ppm will increase the probability to
roughly 66% to 90%.
Current atmospheric GHG concentrations and trends in GHG emissions mean that
these concentration levels may be exceeded. The 2C target can still be achieved if thisovershoot of concentrations is only temporary and reversed quickly. Thus, to avoid a
warming in excess of 2C, global GHG emissions should peak by 2020 at the latest and
then be more than halved by 2050 relative to 1990.
Deep emission reductions can be achieved by employing a broad range of
currently available technologies and technologies that are expected to be
commercialised in coming decades.
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Figure : Tipping-points in the climate system
1.4.1 Tipping-points in the Climate System
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A climate tipping point is a
concept, of a point when global
climate changes from one
stable state to another stable
state, in a similar manner to a
wine glass tipping over. Afterthe tipping point has been
passed, a transition to a new
state occurs. The tipping event
may be irreversible,
comparable to wine spilling
from the glass: standing up theglass will not put the wine back.
Source: Wikipedia
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PN
AS_
2008.pdf
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Figure : Major tipping-points in the climate system
1.4.2 Major tipping-points in the Climate System
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http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PN
AS_
2008.pdf
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1.4.2 Major tipping-points in the Climate System
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Policy-relevant potential future tipping elements in the climate system (PIK)http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PN
AS_
2008.pdf
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1.4.3 The two-degree target some basics
http://ec.europa.e
u/environment/climat/pdf/bro
chure_
2c.pdf
Projections of global mean surface temperatures for three SRES non-mitigation scenarios as
presented by IPCC AR4 and the Year 2000 constant concentration experiment. Without
mitigation of emissions, the 2C target (red dashed line) will be exceeded towards the middle ofthe century. Likely ranges in average 2090-2099 warming for the six SRES marker scenarios
are shown on the right. Source: Adapted from IPCC AR4 WGI, SPM-5.
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Exercise
http://serc.ca
rleton.edu/eslabs/cryosphere/6b.html
Ice cores have been taken from many locations around the world, primarily in
Greenland and Antarctica. One of the deepest cores ever drilled was at the
Vostok station in Antarctica, which includes ice from as far back as over600,000 years ago.
Examine the plot below of Vostok ice core data. NOTE: in the plot, ppm stands
for parts per million.
Based on the Vostok ice core data plot above, how would you describe the
relationship between temperature (red line) and atmospheric CO2
concentration (blue line)? Explain why you think this relationship exists.