global trends in clean energy and transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · naturgy/iese energy...
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Trends in Clean Energy and TransportationNaturgy/IESE Energy ProspectivesMadrid, 14 March 2019
Michael LiebreichFounder and CEOLiebreich Associates
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3 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Image: Wikimedia Commons
Solar and wind are not taking over the world
The great hope for a quick and sweeping transition to renewable energy is wishful thinking.
Vaclav SmilDistinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Environment
at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
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4 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Image: Lomborg.com
Wind and solar are not taking over the world
Today, solar and wind make up just 0.8% of global energy. In a quarter century, solar and wind will produce less than 4% of global energy
Bjørn Lomborg visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School
President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center4 February 2018
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5 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
2040: Welcome to the Three-Third World
1/3 of electricitywill be wind and solar
1/3 of vehicles will be electric
Economy will be 1/3 more energy productive
Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica
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8 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
10
100
1,000
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000Cumulative installed capacity (MW)
€/MWh (real 2018)
2008
2018
1985
0.1
1
10
100
1 100 10,000 1,000,000
$/W (real 2018)
2003
1976
Cumulative capacity (MW)
2018
Source: BNEFNote: LCOE in real 2017
Wind – learning rate 15% Solar – learning rate 24-29%
Wind and solar experience curves
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9 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Solar scale-up 2005 – 2018
Images: Nissan; Enel Villanueva solar plant
2005 2018
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12 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2015
Country:Bidder:Signed:Construction:
USAVarious20152016
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:Bidder:Signed:Construction:
UAEAQWAJanuary 20152017
Country:Bidder:Signed:Construction:
Horns Rev, DenmarkVattenfallFeb 20152017
US$ 12.1 c/kWhUS$ 4.5 c/kWhUS$ 5.8 c/kWhSource: Various manufacturers and project developersNote: images are illustrative only
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13 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2018
Country:Bidder:Signed:Construction:
MexicoNeoenNov 20172019
Solar PV Onshore wind
Country:Bidder:Signed:Construction:
MexicoEnelNov 20172018
Offshore wind
Country:Bidder:Signed:Construction:
DenmarkVattenfall20162022
US$ 5.3 c/kWhUS$ 1.77 c/kWhUS$ 1.97 c/kWhSource: Various manufacturers and project developersNote: images are illustrative only
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14 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: Liebreich Associates; BNEF; BPNote: Calculated as GWh renewable production / GWh consumption
RE proportion of power generation 2007 – 2017
8%17%
US
61% 66%Canada
88% 81%Brazil16%
52%
Italy
14%36%
Germany
18% 19%
India
15%27%
China
9% 17%
Japan
8% 20%
Australia
8%20%
AustraliaWind & solarOther renewables
19%34%
Spain
5%33%
UK
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15 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2002-2009 Reference, 2010-2018 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
GW
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Historical 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GW per year Annual solar additions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
40
80
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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16 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: EIA International Energy OutlookNote: Reference scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
EIA solar capacity forecast evolution
GW GW per year Annual solar additions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Historical 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2016 2017
0
40
80
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
1,000
2,000
3,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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17 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2002-2009 Reference, 2010-2018 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative wind installations
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
GW
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Historical 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GW per year Annual wind additions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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18 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: EIA AEO; BNEF
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet2004200520062007200820092010201220132014201520162017Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet2004200520062007200820092010201220132014201520162017Actual
Impo
rter
Expo
rter
2018
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19 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: PJM
PJM net energy forecasts
Note: Excludes ATSI, DEOK and EKPC
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
TWh
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
2008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032
TWh
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
TWh
2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 Historical 8
Historical 9 Historical 10 Historical 11
Historical 12 Historical 13 Historical 14
Historical 15 Historical
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20 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: AEMO
Australian electricity demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Historical0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh
Historical
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
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21 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mtce
IEA 2013IEA 2014IEA 2015IEA 2016IEA 2017IEA 2018BNEF 2016BNEF 2017BNEF 2018Historical
Source: IEA; BP; Liebreich Associates
Global coal demand forecasts
Note: Using IEA NPS scenarios
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mtce
HistoricalIEA 2013IEA 2014IEA 2015IEA 2016IEA 2017IEA 2018BNEF 2016BNEF 2017BNEF 20180
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mtce
HistoricalIEA 2013IEA 2014IEA 2015IEA 2016IEA 2017IEA 2018BNEF 2016BNEF 2017BNEF 2018
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22 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Image: Twitter
Price of renewable energy in India
The cost of solar power is now cheaper than coal in this country.
Piyush GoyalMinister of State for Power, Coal, New &
Renewable Energy and Mines, India
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23 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: IEA
Global investment in coal supply2000 – 2017
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
$ bn (nominal)
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24 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: Liebreich Associates; Coalswarm
Net new coal generation capacity 2006 – 2018
-100
-50
0
50
100
2006 2010 2015 2018
GW
RoW
India
China
Retirements
Net additions
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AJ 78(!%+#$(9:7;
!"#$%#"&'())*+,-./)
<='"&*+&"#$>%6.+?@AB2C2(2/&+?@(D+-5E"F&5G(!%0+"0(9:7;
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26 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Image: Mark Lyons/Getty Images
Trump digs coalJuly 2017
Everybody was saying, well, you won’t get any mining jobs. We picked up 45,000 mining jobs
Donald TrumpUS President
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28 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF
Gas plays an important role, but increasingly for flexibility only
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
2017-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40China India Rest of APAC AmericasEurope ME & Africa ROW
-1,200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1,200
2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040
Δ generation (TWh)
Coal Gas
Incremental change in gas consumption Incremental change in generation
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29 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
MtCO2
Improved electricity productivity
New non-fossil generation
Coal-to-gas switching
CO2 MtCO2
Historical
Pro rata to GDP growth
Source: EIA; Liebreich Associates; FRED
US electricity CO2 emissions 1990 – 2017
Note: 2017 figures are estimates; new non-fossil generation includes nuclear uprates
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
MtCO2
Coal-to-gas switching
New non-fossil generation
Improved electricity productivity
Historical
Pro rata to GDP growth
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
MtCO2
Coal-to-gas switching
New non-fossil generation
Improved electricity productivity
Historical
Pro rata to GDP growth
2017
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![Page 33: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
31 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
India China U.S.
Nuclear vs. non-hydro renewable generation in selected countries 1990 – 2017
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% electricity generation
Nuclear Non-hydro renewablesSource: BP; Liebreich Associates
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% electricity generation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% electricity generation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% electricity generation
![Page 34: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
32 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Image: Lomborg.com
Wind and solar are not taking over the world
Today, solar and wind make up just 0.8% of global energy. In a quarter century, solar and wind will produce less than 4% of global energy
Bjørn Lomborg visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School
President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center4 February 2018
![Page 35: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
33 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Lab
Sankey for the U.S. in 201668% of primary energy is wasted…
…almost all of it from coal, oil, gas and nuclear
![Page 36: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
34 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
0
200
400
600
800Mtoe
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
TWh
Primary energy Electricity
Primary energy, final consumption and electricity generation
67% waste heat
Nuclear Hydro Nuclear Hydro
Source: IEA WEO2018; Liebreich Associates
![Page 37: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
GJ 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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37 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF
Evolving structure of power supply Northern Europe
Past – summer
Past – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Current – summer
Current – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Future – summer
Future – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
GW
Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/Storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR
![Page 40: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
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40 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Image: Tesla; Detroit Electric, courtesy of EVASD
The future of transportation – EVs
Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until they're within reach of the average family.
The Washington Post , 1915
![Page 43: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
41 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
thousand sold
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
thousand sold
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
thousand sold
APAC EMEA AMER
Quarterly EV sales by regionQ1 2012 – Q4 2018
CAGR 86% CAGR 62% CAGR 54%
Source: BNEF
![Page 44: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
42 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF EVO 2018
Annual global light duty vehicle sales Global light duty vehicle fleet
BNEF electric vehicle outlook to 2040
3%
28%
55%
0
30
60
90
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million vehicles
1%9%
33%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million vehicles on road
3%
28%
55%
0
30
60
90
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million vehicles
PHEV BEV ICE All EVs % of sales
1%9%
33%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million vehicles on road
PHEV BEV ICE All EVs % of fleet
![Page 45: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
43 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Sources: BNEF; BP; Exxon Mobil; OPEC; IEA
Global EV fleet forecasts by various organisations – 2018
Notes: IEA values are base case. ExxonMobil and IEA forecasts prior to 2018 include BEVs, PHEVs and FCVs; all other forecasts include just BEVs and PHEVs.
0
200
400
600
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Million EVs
BNEF – 2016BP – 2016BP – 2017BP – 2018ExxonMobil – 2016ExxonMobil – 2017ExxonMobil – 2018OPEC – 2016OPEC – 2017OPEC – 2018IEA – 2016IEA – 2017BNEF – 2017BNEF – 2018
0
200
400
600
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Million EVs
BNEF
BP
OPEC
IEA
ExxonMobil
2016
2017
![Page 46: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
44 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
10
100
1,000
10,000
100 10,000 1,000,000Cumulative capacity (MW)
€/MWh (real 2018)
2018
1985
Solar – learning rate 28.5% Wind – learning rate 15% Batteries – learning rate 20%
Experience curves
Source: BNEF
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1 1,000 1,000,000
$/W (real 2018)
1976
Cumulative capacity (MW)
2018
10
100
1,000
10,000
1 1,000 1,000,000Cumulative production (MWh)
$/MWh (real 2018)
2010
2018
![Page 47: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
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46 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Shanghai, China
Image: Michael Liebreich
![Page 49: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
47 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Delhi, India
Image: Newsclick India
![Page 50: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
48 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Paris, France
Image: D€NNI$/Creative Commons
![Page 51: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
49 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
London, UK
Image: HHRCA
![Page 52: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
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![Page 57: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
JJ 78(!%+#$(9:7;
!"#$%#"&'())*+,-./)
<='"&*+&"#$>%6.+?@AB2C2(2/&+?@(D+-5E"F&5G(!%0+"0(9:7;
e1,#*&)"):3(-:&:%(&2(#3#312)j
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56 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF EVO 2018
Public EV charging points installed globally 2008 – 2018
0
200
400
600
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Thousand outlets
OthersJapanU.S.EuropeChina
CAGR 62%
![Page 59: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
57 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
Europe U.S. China
Impact of EVs on power demand
0
200
400
600
800
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + Evs
0
200
400
600
800
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + Evs
0
200
400
600
800
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + EV
0
200
400
600
800
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + EV
0
200
400
600
800
2015 2030 2040 2050
TWh/yr
EV demand Rooftop PV Gross demand Net demand Net demand + Evs
Note: EV demand includes light duty vehicles only; Europe and US EVs are 19% of the fleet by 2040; Chinese EVs are 28% of LDV fleet by 2040 Source: BNEF NEO 2018; Liebreich Associates
![Page 60: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
58 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: Various, BNEF
Spot price of solar-grade silicon, year 2000 – February 2018
Notes: Annual data 2000-07 from various industry sources. Data November 2007–May 2009 based on a 3-point moving average of actual spot deals. Consistent monthly data collection using the Spot Price Index began in May 2009.
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
$/kg
![Page 61: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
59 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: Antaike Information Development Co., Bloomberg; Benchmark Mineral Intelligence; BNEF
China Shanghai Cobalt Asia Lithium Hydroxide
Cobalt and lithium prices
Note: Data up to Feb 2019
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$/metric ton
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$/metric ton
![Page 62: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
60 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF
Battery electric vehicles Fuel cell vehicles
Global BEV vs. FCV sales
0
250
500
750
1,000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Thousand units
0
250
500
750
1000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Thousand units
![Page 63: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
N> 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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NG 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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N? 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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X)E5)"&3-L)=&L#3#(D%1K JB&L-*53),&P ABB&L-"), >B&L-*53),&P GBB&L-"),
e(-;)&3(%-*&L#;-*0&2%(3,K >O k&ABB
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NJ 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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66 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Not just cars going electric – buses
Images: Thomas Jouley; BYD; Proterra
![Page 69: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
NO 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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NQ 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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OB 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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O> 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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72 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF; Liebreich Associates
Cumulative oil displacement by electric vehicles
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mbpd
Diesel (light vehicles)
Gasoline (light vehicles)
Diesel (buses)
Gasoline (2 & 3 wheelers)
![Page 75: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
OG 78(!%+#$(9:7;
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76 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
2040: Welcome to the Three-Third World
1/3 of electricitywill be wind and solar
1/3 of vehicles will be electric
Economy will be 1/3 more energy productive
Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica
![Page 79: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
77 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2018
€/MWh
U.K. Denmark Germany
Spain U.S. (average) Australia
Residential electricity prices by cost segment
Source: EIA; AEMC; Eurostat; BNEF; Liebreich AssociatesNote: Australian data excludes the carbon price repealed in 2014. EU data only available until H1 2018. Other includes taxes, levies and FiTs.
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2018
€/MWh
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2018
€/MWh
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2018
€/MWh
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2018
€/MWh
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2018
€/MWh
OtherNetwork costsElectricity supply
![Page 80: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
78 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF
Evolving structure of power supply Germany
Past – summer
Past – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Current – summer
Current – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Future – summer
Future – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
GW
Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/Storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR
![Page 81: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
79 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF
Future power supply
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
GW
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-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
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-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
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Summer
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
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-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
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Low carbon generation
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
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Flexible generation
=
=
+
+
Total generation
![Page 82: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
80 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Source: BNEF
Future power supply
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50.0
70.0
90.0
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GW
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-40
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0
20
40
60
80
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0
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40
60
80
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-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
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-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Low carbon generation
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
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Flexible generation
=
=
+
+
Total generation
![Page 83: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
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86 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
Images: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica; Wikipedia Commons
Beyond the Three-Third World
Shipping/air/freight Chemicals
Energy accessHeatAgriculture
Manufacturing
![Page 89: Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation · 2020. 7. 22. · Naturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019 @mliebreich 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Note: 2002-2009](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071007/5fc516fcb7eb272dc045b550/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
87 14 March 2019
LIEBREICHAssociates
@mliebreichNaturgy/IESE Energy Prospectives, Madrid 2019
[email protected]@mliebreich
Thanks!