Global Trends Impacting Child Rights and Wellbeing:

Background Situation Analysis for Save the Children’s next Global Campaign

March 2014

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This research was led by Dr. José Manuel Roche, Head of Research from Save the Children UK. It specially benefited from contributions from: Lana Pasic (external consultant leading the literature research process), Sophie Dicker and Georgina Kenlock (assisting on interview transcripts and specific literature review), Dr. Grace Kite (research on IT section), Philippa Lei (interviewed GI Director on Education), Rachel Garthwaite (on climate change), Lara Barley (UHC), Francis West (private sector), Julian Fiori (data on conflicts) and Dr. David McNair (inputs for the section “Save the Children’s values”). We thank all those that participated during the interview process (see appendix 1 and 2) and many other colleagues from Save the Children who contributed in various ways throughout the research process – there are just too many names to be mentioned. Brendan Cox, Kitty Ariel, Elizabeth Stuart and Sarah Jacobs provided valuable insights at various stages of the research process. Special thanks to Jonas Keiding Lindholm and Michel Anglade who shared their research and knowledge as part of the Mid-Term Strategy Review, and to colleagues from UNICEF David Anthony & Nicholas Rees who shared a draft global trends analysis undertaken by their team. The final but more important thanks go to the members of Save the Children Global Advocacy Group who commissioned this work and were actively engaged during the research process. For comments please email: j.roche@savethechildren.org.uk

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ABSTRACT

This Global Situation Analysis reviews the key social, economic and environmental trends likely to impact on children in the next decade, with particular focus on those areas which can be linked back to the achievement of Save the Children’s breakthroughs. The analysis aims to inform Save the Children’s decision about the theme of its next Global Campaign and its approach to campaigning globally after 2015.

It summarizes the state of the debate gathered throughout: 1) internal Save the Children interview with CEOs & Country Directors, Global Initiative Directors, GAG Members and SC Staff; 2) and External Interviewees to leading thinkers including think-tanks, academics, member of regional coalitions, UN agencies among others; 3) Literature review covering main reports and analysis on Global Trends, and further review of specific salient topics; and 4) Literature review covering Save the Children’s Global Initiatives related documents (education, health, child rights governance and child protection).

The paper starts by recognizing that there are plenty of reports, papers and presentations on global trends analyses produced by INGOs, Child focused agencies, think-tanks and government/international agencies. While reports are similar in identifying the overall trends, they differ in the emphasis and interpretation given. We followed advised received during the interview process and reads the trends from a Save the Children’s lens. We do not aim to be neutral in the analysis but rather rooting it in the core values Save the Children stands up for. Equally, we avoid a futuristic vision, yet avoid also nostalgia for the past. Finally, we aim to combine a conscious understanding of the risks ahead but equally identifying the opportunities for substantial positive transformation.

The paper distinguishes three main areas and related trends: 1) Global economic, social and environmental trends that are trends that will have a direct impact on child right and wellbeing, including Climate Chang, Demographic transition (Urbanization, Ageing & Migration, Economic and Power Shifts (from the North to South East / from Global to National and networks), Changes in the Geography and Nature of Poverty, - Persistent & Increasing Inequalities, New technologies, data sharing & accountability and Changing in values, norms, and mentalities; 2) Contextual changes affecting INGO which are not directly affecting child rights and wellbeing but affects Save the Children, including Changing Global Infrastructure of Aid & New Donor Landscape, Diffusion of Power to networks and coalition, National level restrictions for CSO’s public action, and Continued redefinition of “international development” and role of INGOs; 3) Uncertainties & risks which refers to uncertainties and risks as we understand that change is in fact less predictable and linear than we want to accept, including Economic volatility and fragile economic recovery, Environmental degradation and resource scarcity (water, food and pollution), Risk of national/international conflicts, Frequency of natural disasters and Risk of unpredictable pandemics & increase in non-communicable diseases.

The paper concludes by presenting a summary of implications for next Global Campaign:

• Consider the impact of climate change in every area of work including the next Global Campaign • Be prepared to confront new forms of poverty, while finishing the task of eradicating extreme poverty • Develop a coherent strategy to engage with issues of inequality • Ensure that economic progress and recovery delivers for children • Building resilience and protection against shocks • Urbanization implies opportunities and new risks • Be prepared for demographic transitions • Ensure protection for “children on the move” • New strategies for a new global order • Promote peace and good governance • Engage with new technology and forms of activism • Become a movement that shifts norms

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Contents 1. Background ............................................................................................................................... 5

2. Research Methodology .............................................................................................................. 5

3. A Save the Children’s lens – standing up for our values .............................................................. 6

4. Overview of main global trends ................................................................................................. 7

5. Impact on Child Rights and Wellbeing ........................................................................................ 9

a) Climate change will impact every area of Save the Children’s work ........................................ 9

b) Demographic transition (Urbanization, Aging & Migration) .................................................. 11

c) Economic and Power Shifts (from the North to South East / from Global to National and networks) .................................................................................................................................... 14

d) Changes in the Geography and Nature of Poverty ................................................................ 17

e) Persistent and Increasing Inequalities .................................................................................. 19

f) New technologies, access to information & accountability ................................................... 24

g) Changing in values, norms, and mentalities .......................................................................... 29

6. Summary of implications for next Global Campaign ................................................................. 31

Appendix 1: Internal Save the Children Interviews ........................................................................... 37

Appendix 2: External Interviews ...................................................................................................... 38

Appendix 3: An overview of global trends (Annotated Literature Review) ....................................... 39

Appendix 4: Save the Children’s Global Initiative (Annotated literature review) ............................... 95

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Global Trends Impacting Child Rights and Wellbeing:

Background Situation Analysis for Save the Children’s next Global Campaign

1. Background

This Global Situation Analysis reviews the key social, economic and environmental trends likely to impact on children in the next decade, with particular focus on those areas which can be linked back to the achievement of Save the Children’s breakthroughs. The analysis aims to inform Save the Children’s decision about the theme of its next Global Campaign and its approach to campaigning globally after 2015.

This is one of the background pieces that will support development of the “options paper” for the next Members Meeting in Berlin. It will help guide a discussion on what will enable Save the Children in the next decade to lead a high impact global campaign.

The analysis builds on work done at Save the Children on child rights and wellbeing, in particular those in connection with the 2013 Save the Children Mid-Term Strategy Review.1

The current paper presents an overview of the key research findings. This document is accompanied by an annotated literature review on Global Trends (appendix 3), an annotated literature review from Save the Children’s GIs related documents (appendix 4), and a presentation with a graphical overview of the key findings.2

2. Research Methodology

The situation analysis summarizes the state of the debate gathered throughout an interview process and an extensive literature review.

The interviews consisted in two types:

• Internal Save the Children interviews with CEOs & Country Directors, Global Initiative Directors, GAG – Members and some Staff expert on certain topics (see detailed list below in Annex 1).

• External interviews to leading thinkers including think-tanks, academics, member of regional coalitions, UN agencies among others (see list below in Annex 2)

The interviews were recorded and transcribed whenever possible – this interim report and the presentation attached present the overview of the debate.

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The literature review process was divided in two separate related themes:

• Literature review covering main reports and analysis on Global Trends, and further review of specific salient topics (e.g. demographic transition, geography of poverty, global inequality, climate change, role of private sector, conflict trends).3 The output of this literature review is attached in Annex 3.

• Literature review covering Save the Children’s Global Initiatives related documents (education, health, child rights governance and child protection). The review provides an overview of main publications by Save the Children on these areas, but also other organisations and agencies, and explores the various fields of work within each of the area. The output of this literature review is attached in Annex 4.

3. A Save the Children’s lens – standing up for our values

There are plenty of reports, papers and presentations on global trends analyses produced by INGOs, Child focused agencies, think-tanks and government/international agencies. We have review a wide range of these report, including “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” by the National Intelligence Council, ODI Horizon 2025, “Global Trends” by UNICEF, the “2020 Development Futures” report commissioned by ActionAid, “The State of the International Order” by Brookings, among many others. Naturally, we have produced our own situation analysis at Save the Children as well, including the most recent presentations produced as part of the Mid-Term Strategy Review. We have systematically review these reports and prepared an annotated literature review which is presented in appendix 3.

While the trends identified are mostly similar, reports vary in their emphasis and often in the way the authors interpret each trend. For example, some reports may refer to the fast progress in monetary poverty reduction experienced in many countries while others may emphasise the “emerging middle classes”, their consumption capacity and growing sense of empowerment and aspirations. When looking at the evidence and background research, these visions are of course two sides of the same coin. The differences may then be related to the emphasis given to the available evidence (when there is). In other cases it is the result of the interpretation given to the direction of the different trends. Often, it is a matter of conflicting narratives in reading “where we come from” and “where we are going”. Some reports are rooted in a positive/hopeful interpretation while in the other extreme there are those that emphasise the risks and problems ahead. While reports are similar in identifying the overall trends, they differ in the emphasis and interpretation given.

It comes then the obvious question: How should we interpret these global trends to inform our action? During the interview process, many internal and external interviewees advised us to read the trends from a Save the Children’s lens. They considered that in contrast to other organizations, Save the Children is a value based organization. We do not need to be neutral in the analysis but rather rooting it in the core values our organization stands up for. We should avoid a futuristic vision (e.g. all will be technology in the future and direct giving), yet we should also avoid a nostalgia for the past (e.g. old international governance and traditional ODA). There was also the advice to combine a

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conscious understanding of the risks ahead but equally identifying the opportunities for substantial positive transformation. What does Save the Children stands up for? As a value based organization, Save the Children aims for “a world where every child attains the right to survival, protection, development and participation”. We believe that every child should be free of fundamental deprivations and that every child, indistinctive of their background, should have the same chances to thrive in life. Unfortunately, there are forces that work within countries and internationally that, by action or omission, are systematically depriving children of what we regard as fundamental rights and entitlements. Save the Children systematic work on programing, research, advocacy and campaigning is oriented to identifying the drivers of the problems and finding innovative solutions to overcome them.

We should then be centred in our values – which hold regardless of the trend, uncertainty, or change taking place. As defenders of child rights and wellbeing, we should minimize risks and maximize opportunities to their fulfilment. What this mean is:

We must articulate where cultural mores or practices contravene these rights and oppose them through programming, campaigning and policy change: a movement that shifts norms.

We must build the resilience of children to respond to uncertainty – in terms of environmental stress, economic crises, or demographic transition. This resilience, in almost every case, involves reducing inequality and extreme poverty – poor people are vulnerable because they are poor: a movement that shapes the fair allocation of resources.

We must understand, address and respond to the underlying drivers of child right and wellbeing, and of many of these trends – urbanisation, migration, economic crises, and climate change: an organisation that learns and is flexible to change and gets to the root causes.

We must harness best research techniques with country evidence; and through thought leadership, programming, advocacy and campaigning catalyse change for children.

Naturally, it is beyond this paper to exhaust the analysis of the global trends and of the underlining drivers of child right and wellbeing. However, we do hope to provide insights for needed thinking and reflexion, initially as background for the decision on the next Global Campaign but more generally on how Save the Children should adapt to changes.

4. Overview of main global trends

We start by distinguishing trends that may affect children, changes that may affect INGOs and broader uncertainties and risks. Box 1 presents a summary of these trends and proposed groupings and labels to facilitate interpretation. Let us start by providing an overview of these global trends.

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• Global economic, social and environmental trends: these are trends that will have a direct impact on child right and wellbeing. It includes first the impact of Climate Change which is a global trend that will have a significant impact on children. Second, it discusses broader demographic the world is going through, including process of fast urbanization, unprecedented aging in some countries and migration process. Third, it refers to the global economic and power shift which is highlighted by almost all trend analysis but where there is still much disagreement on interpreting the change. Fourth, it discusses the transformation in the geography and nature of poverty. This is partly the now common discussion on middle income countries and fragile states, but also on how focus is shifting from extreme absolute poverty to other forms of poverty: chronic poverty, vulnerability, relative poverty, and more generally on multidimensional poverty. Sixth, it refers to the persistent and increasing inequalities, deliberating about the rising of economic inequality and linkages to development processes, but also the debates on inequality in life chances, and on group-based inequality. Seventh, it highlights the emerging of new technologies, data sharing and accountability. Eight, it finally discuss about the changes in values, norms and mentalities that are happening in parallel to the previous processes.

Table 1: Summary of Global Trends affecting Child Right and Wellbeing

Global economic, social and environmental trends

Contextual changes affecting INGOs

Uncertainties & risks

- Climate Change

- Demographic transition (Urbanization, Ageing & Migration)

- Economic and Power Shifts (from the North to South East / from Global to National and networks)

- Changes in the Geography and Nature of Poverty

- Persistent & Increasing Inequalities

- New technologies, data sharing & accountability

- Changing in values, norms, and mentalities

- Changing Global Infrastructure of Aid & New Donor Landscape

- Diffusion of Power to networks and coalitions

- National level restrictions for CSO’s public action

- Continued redefinition of “international development” and role of INGOs

- Economic volatility and fragile economic recovery

- Environmental degradation and resource scarcity (water, food and pollution)

- Risk of national/international conflicts

- Frequency of natural disasters

- Risk of unpredictable pandemics & increase in non-communicable diseases

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• Contextual changes affecting INGOs: We distinguish a second set of trends which are not directly affecting child rights and wellbeing, but that are contextual changes affecting INGOs. First, there is the debate on the changing global infrastructure of aid & new donor landscape. Second, there is the discussion on the diffusion of power to networks and coalitions which is part of the power shift but here highlighted as affecting directly INGOs. Third, there are concerns of national level restrictions for CSO’s public action as shown by ongoing research in Save the Children Sweden. Fourth, there is the continue redefinition of “international development” and role of INGOs.

• Uncertainties & risks: Finally we distinguish those other events which refer not so much to predicable trends but rather to uncertainties and risks. There is a growing understanding that change is in fact less predictable and linear than we want to accept, especially INGOs and other development agencies. Truly game changing events are rather associated to shocks and crises, and it is how the world adjusts to these shocks and crises what matters. Many of the events highlighted in the green box imply uncertainties and risks, which may develop on specific shocks and crises as highlighted in the red box. First, we highlight the economic volatility and the concern on the fragile economic recovery. Second, climate change and population growth represents risks on environmental degradation and resource scarcity. Third, there are important risks of national/international conflicts. Fourth, there will most likely be an increase in frequency of natural disasters as a consequence of climate change. Fourth, an expected uncertainty refers to risk of unpredictable pandemics & increase in non-communicable diseases.

5. Impact on Child Rights and Wellbeing

Next we expand and discuss the implications of the key global economic, social and environmental trends. We summarized the trend and present in red boxes a summary of implications for the decision of the next global campaign.

a) Climate change will impact every area of Save the Children’s work

Some of the major risks that will affect children rights and wellbeing over the next decade are related to the effects of climate change. While this is a complex issue to engage with for a Save the Children Global Campaign, the general consensus among interviewees was that Save the Children needs to understand the risks that it poses to the delivery of our objectives, and take steps to manage them for every programme and global initiative.

• The global temperature is increasing and this is driving changes in rain, snowfall and wind patterns, and rising sea-levels. Hurricanes, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, and natural systems are changing reducing crop yields and water availability and altering disease distribution and prevalence

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• The impacts on children are significant and diverse, including increased mortality and morbidity from communicable and non-communicable causes and the rising frequency of weather related disasters, loss of assets and livelihoods, decline in food security and income, forced population movement/migration, and increased resource insecurity/conflict.

• Climate change is driving environmental, social, political and economic change. It is, and will continue to have, both positive and negative impacts on development as a consequence of the physical changes listed above, as well as the social, economic and political responses. This was stressed by some interviewees who considered the game-changing nature of climate change for development is often overlooked. Examples of positive changes were given of the way it has already driven technological innovation and development in many places, for example solar panel production in China, and solar water treatment in Africa.

Box 1: Climate change impact on Children Rights

Source: UNICEF (2009) A brighter tomorrow: climate change and intergenerational justice, New York, UNICEF.

Implications:

Certainly, Climate Change is a difficult topic for a Global Campaign. However, the impacts of climate change on Save the Children’s objectives and how it will affect the aims of the next global campaign should be considered. At least a climate risk analysis ought to take place in the

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concept and design stage of the next global campaign. There is also need for Save the Children to undertake its own analysis and research to understand better the impacts of climate change on children, and implications for the global campaign and achievement of its goals.

b) Demographic transition (Urbanization, Aging & Migration)

Poverty reduction progress can be eroded by rapid population growth and by the process of demographic transition.4 According to the UNFPA State of the World Population report5 the world will undertake a substantial demographic transition that will have at least three major trends: rapid urbanization, ageing and migration.

• Rapid Urbanization: The world will go through a rapid process of urbanization especially in Asia and Africa (see graph). Closet to 50% of the population in Asia and Africa will live in urban settings by 2030, and this is expected to increase to over 60% by 2050. The magnitude of the transformation is evident when we observe that in 19070 less than 25% of people in Asia and Africa lived in urban settings. The urbanization process will continue but with a different dynamic in other regions, where some cities are growing while others are shrinking. Recent studies show how Mexico City, Acapulco and Guadalajara are growing at a much faster rate while other cities are shrinking. The result of both trends is that a large proportion of the urban population will in fact live in “megacities” of more than 10M people. The UN predicts 32 megacities in 2025, only 8 in the developed world and most of these in Asia, yet approximately 1bn in cities in Africa.6 The risks for children associated to internal migration are significant, as well as pressure on public services and risk of increase of informal settlements. The recent experience over the last ten years shows that countries and municipal governments have made important progress to improve slums conditions. In relative terms the proportion of people living in slums has reduced from 46% to 33%. However, in absolute terms the total number of people living in slums has in fact increase to 828M by 2010. What this is telling us is that countries need to be prepared to adapt to the process of urbanization, and that the pace of progress needs to be faster to actually reduce the absolute number of people living in informal settlements.

• Unprecedented aging: A window of opportunity opens to some countries with young large productive workforce. According to demographers China is precisely in their window of opportunity and this will end by 2025. In 2010 the median age of China was 35 years but this will be 43 years by 2030. India will experience a longer window of opportunity that stats in 2015 and finishes in 2050, as well as Iran which finishes in 2040. Russia on the other hand is reaching the end of their window of opportunity by 2015.

Some countries will experience unprecedented and widespread ageing accompanied by slowdown of economic growth. Germany for example experienced a window of opportunity between 1950 and 1990, and by 2030 the median age will be 49. Japan is

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another case that will experience unprecedented aging with a median age of 52 by 2030. There will be an effect of slowing down economic growth and as attention shifts to elderly population, it will become harder to advocate for children. Some countries will have a significant reduction in the share of world children, including high and upper middle income countries, and the East Asia and Pacific (see graph).

Box 2: Process of Urbanization

Source: Graph taken from UNFPA (2010) State of world population 2010

• Migration: The fast growing process of urbanization implies movement of children from rural areas to urban settings, or of their families leaving children behind. This presents an opportunity as well as a challenge. Families will be looking for better life chances, jobs opportunities and there is an economy of scale in service provision in new urban settings. However, there are a series of risks as well, including child protection issues associated to migration, prospect of growing urban slumps in countries that are not prepared for the transition, and generally the need for countries and cities to be prepared to go through the institutional transition that fast urbanization process demand. International migration will intensify associated to the process of demographic transition and changes in the age structure in many countries. Some countries will be enjoying "economic dividends" of having a youth working force while other will experience unprecedented aging. It is expected that globalization will imply also increasing population movement as a result of workforce shortages with the opportunities and risks that it implies for children. It is expected also that the increase in natural disasters and risk of conflicts will be accompanied by movement of people. This is harder to predict, and requires ad hoc solutions and system of social protection. These dynamics may further increase inequalities.

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Box 3: Demographic transition

Source: Figure from National Intelligence Council (2012)

Source: Figures from You and Anthony (2012) Generation 2025 and beyond, UNICEF, Occasional Papers No. 1.

Implications:

In terms of the next Global Campaign, engaging in the problems and risks that are common to urban settings will become increasingly important. However, at the same time, a significant number of children will remain in rural settings.

Urbanization offers opportunities in terms of employment and there may be an economy of scale in service provision. However, countries/cities need to be prepared to adapt to the changes. Megacities bring a new political dimension regarding how to influence the right

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decision makers in order to improve the lives of the poor at that level. There is a risk that issues around internal migration and growing informal settlements may become ‘politicised’. The effect of social inequality also becomes more evident in urban settings and puts further pressure on the system.

Cities have different socioeconomic dynamics as well as demand different responses to problems. We require a better understanding of the underlying drivers of problems in urban settings.

While the demographic transition will offer windows of opportunities to some countries, others will experience a slowdown in economic growth. Attention will shifts to elderly population in countries with unprecedented aging, and it will become harder to advocate for children. Migration will intensify as a result of workforce shortages.

c) Economic and Power Shifts (from the North to South East / from Global to National and networks)

Over the last decade the world has experienced important changes in the global economic and political order which is expect to continue. The literature review of global trends and interviewees allow us identifying the following trends:

• Economic Shift from north to south east: The world has experienced a truly remarkable transformation over the last two decades and is expected to continue changing. The economic growth of many countries such as India and China has being remarkable, which is evident when compared with the time it took to countries like Britain, the US or Germany to achieve similar increase in GDP per capita (see graph). Naturally, GDP per capita is only a country average and, although countries are moving towards convergence, the gap in average living standards between countries is still considerable. Despites these differences, recent research shows the current transformation in global wealth distribution has no precedent since the industrial revolution.7 Fast growth in many of these large countries means that as a whole “emerging” economies are having a much larger share of the world economy, for example, the size of the economy of all BRIC countries together is now almost as big as the size of the US economy (see graph). It is expected that China alone will have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030. 8

• Diffusion of Power: The world has also been experiencing a transformation of the global power relations and more specifically what many see as a diffusion of power. The view is that the world is transforming so there will not be any hegemonic power, but a shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world. 9 Part of this transformation is related to the economic shift, it is expected that “Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size, military spending, and technological investment”.10 China, India, and as many other Non-OECD countries will increase their shared of power (see graph).

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• Change in the nature of power and challenges for governance: Many consider there is in fact

a change in the nature of power which has been partly enabled by communication technologies, so power is shifting towards multifaceted and amorphous networks which are increasingly influencing state and global action. 11 Some consider we are moving to the “End of Power” as we knew it, as currently power is easier to get, harder to use, and easier to lose. It is claimed this is the result of three revolutions: a) the more revolution (describing a world of abundance, more people, more political parties, NGOs, companies, money, etc.); b) the mobility revolution (people and resources move more which make them harder to govern) and c) the mentality revolution (as it is harder to impact people mind-set).12 As a result national and global governance institutions are under pressure as they were designed for a significantly different world. The diffusion of power implies that it is increasingly difficult to reach multilateral agreements as not any single or reduced group of players have the power they used to have in the past. There is a call for reform the global institutions while regional and multiple networks have emerged.13 The national level there is also a growing distrust on national institutions and government while national power is also defused among regional and local actors.14

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Box 4: Economic and Power Shifts

Source: National Intelligence Council (2012)

Source: Foreign Policy at Brookings (2014) The State of the International Order

Implications:

The world is experiencing a truly remarkable transformation in welfare distribution that in the view of many has no precedent since the industrial revolution. This has been accompanied by an economic and power shift from the north to the south east. Power is shifting from hegemonic

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powers to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world. The world today is more complex, and reaching global multilateral agreements is ever more difficult. Many see challenges ahead. In terms of global governance, some consider there is a risk of growing deterioration of trust in institutions which are unable to adapt fast enough to harness change. Such distrust on institution is also manifested at a national level in many countries. In terms of the global economy, risks remain as the world has not yet recovered from the recent economic crisis and it is difficult to reconcile different economic interest.

The current landscape is different and challenging for a Global Campaign. Traditional campaigning strictly focused on global institutions and appeared limited and distant from where changes are taking and can take place. However, working at a national level and through various networks is more complex for a global movement. Save the Children has itself gone through an impressive process of transformation in the last few years. The challenge is to continue refining the institutional setup and mechanisms in place so Save the Children can truly maximize its global impact thought a global movement. This implies working through networks and at various levels, including with regional and local authorities within countries.

d) Changes in the Geography and Nature of Poverty

We are the generation that could see eradication of extreme forms of poverty and deprivations, including extreme forms of monetary poverty, lack of immunization, been free of early death for preventable causes, access to basic education, among others. However, we will be increasingly in the presence of a new geography and nature of poverty.

• First, as we reach “zero” targets, we will find greater resistance and increase marginal cost

to eradicate extreme forms of chronic poverty.15 The chronic poor are those who share a series of interconnected conditions hampering them to overcome poverty. This will be particularly common in Fragile and Conflict-Affected countries as the structural conditions generate reinforcing dynamics. Research has shown how as low income countries improve, the world poor have increasingly being concentrated in middle income countries which now concentrates two third of the world poor population.16 While stable middle income countries are expected to show important improvements in poverty reduction, as they reach lower level they will also be dealing with eradication of chronic poverty. Extremely disadvantage groups and regions in MICs will be of particular concern as in these settings similar reinforcing dynamics to FCA states manifest (see wide disparities in subnational poverty level in sub-Saharan Africa). It will become more difficult to reduce these forms of chronic poverty which demand better understanding of complex dynamics and innovative responses.

• Second, as we reduce extreme poverty, we will increasingly pay more attention to vulnerability and to relative poverty. On the one hand, the aim will not only be on escaping poverty but on remaining there, and how household are able to overcome environmental

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and economic shocks. Access to social protection programs and building resilience will be fundamental to reduce vulnerability. On the other hand, we will increasingly pay attention to issues of relative poverty. Consider for instance overcoming extreme forms of monetary poverty, those just above $1.25 or $2 a day are still experiencing very difficult conditions, and those moving further up to $4 or even $10 a day can hardly be considered stable middle classes in a conventional western way. While some forms of absolute extreme poverty will be eradicated, relative forms of deprivations will remain a concern. This applies to monetary poverty but especially to outcomes in other dimensions such as education, health or child development. Latin American countries are examples where substantive progress has been made in eradicating extreme forms of poverty and deprivations but still experience large number of non-extreme poverty. New problems will emerge associated to these new forms of poverty, including obesity or increase on non-communicable diseases.

Box 5: Changes in the Geography and Nature of Poverty

Source: Figure from Chandy et al (2013) The Final Countdown

Source: Alkire, Roche & Seth (2012) Multidimensional Poverty Index

Source: Figure from Sumner (2011) The New Bottom Billion

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• Third, as countries make progress in reducing extreme forms of absolute poverty, attention will shift to multidimensional approaches. This is partly because as we deal with chronic forms of poverty, it will be more about overcoming the mutual reinforcing dynamics of deprivation. Those hardest to reach children are often suffering multiple overlapping deprivations that reinforced each other. There will be a need to overcome typical silos in policy intervention and to promote action across ministries and agencies working in different sectors (finance, education, health, infrastructure, child protection, etc.). Multidimensional approaches will provide incentive to policy makers to incorporate systemic approaches. In this new perspective the effort will be oriented to achieve combined effects or stimulate positive reinforcing dynamics. We will be moving to more multidimensional understanding of poverty and coordinating actions across different sectors.

Implications:

The challenge ahead is to continue being ambitious and making progress in a world where the geography and nature of poverty is changing. There is an increasing polarization in the distribution of world poverty between stable middle income countries (MICs) and unstable, fragile and conflict affected states. While still related to global processes, poverty eradication in MICs will increasingly have to do with national policies. Different strategies will be required in FACs states, demanding more international actions. Similarities may exist between deprived and unstable regions in MICs and FACs.

The nature of the way we understand and tackle poverty will change as we approach eradication of extreme forms of poverty and deprivation. Chronic poverty will be harder to reduce which will demand more comprehensive and multidimensional interventions. A global campaign that aims at extreme poverty eradication would need to consider how different dimensions interact, and advocate for more coordination in public policy between different sectors. Our advocacy and campaigning may need to be more political at the national level if we are to impact people who may in many cases, by action or inaction, have been marginalised for political, social or cultural reasons. Campaigning in this context will be more complex and it will require longer terms campaign.

As the aim is not only for households to exit poverty but to stay out of poverty, the need for policies to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience will become more evident. It will be increasingly necessary to rely on national policies.

Extreme absolute poverty might be eradicated, but other forms of relative poverty and deprivation will emerge.

e) Persistent and Increasing Inequalities

While the world has made important development progress over the last decades, there are raising concerns about increasing and persistent inequalities. As Doley and Stiglitz explained in their note to the OWG8, the final goal is not to reach complete equality.17 There is the recognition that some inequalities are conducive to economic growth, and addressing other may

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infringes on cherished liberties. So what types of inequalities are increasing or persisting and why are some of these problematic?

• Extreme economic inequality. Recent studies show the world remarkable progress in economic growth has been accompanied by sharp increase of economic inequality.18 While countries like China or India have experienced extraordinary fast growth, this has been accompanied by increase in inequality. China went from a Gini of 32 to 42 between 1998 and 2008, widening also the gap between the urban and rural areas. Income inequality has also increased among many OECD countries, including USA, UK, Canada, France and Germany (see graph below). However, not all the stories are negative, some countries, remarkable Latin America, have experienced important decline in inequality.19 The good news is that growth in developing countries has been faster, and so inequality between countries is reducing. While the main determinant of someone income still is the lottery of their country of birth, within country inequality went from explaining 83% of someone income in 1998 to 76.6% in 2008. Yet, the overall story is still not positive. The increase of within country inequality has cancelled this effect, and evidence show that global inequality instead of decreasing has probably remained invariant.20 What this mean is that countries are becoming more equal among each other but more unequal within.

Why is the increase of inequality a problem if countries are on average increasing wealth? There are two main problems with the increase of inequality. The first one refers to issues of share prosperity and the need of redistribution to accelerate progress in poverty eradication. The share prosperity argument looks at the extent to which those at the bottom of the distribution, including the poor, are benefiting from the fast growth. Evidence shows that in Latin American countries where inequality is decreasing, the bottom 40% is doing better than the average.21 However, this is not the case everywhere. There is a debate on whether fast economic growth in India is delivering enough to the poor. 22 Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient for poverty eradication. Save the Children’s Getting to Zero report showed that even under an optimistic scenario of economic growth, redistribution is needed to eradicate extreme forms of deprivations.23 Similar conclusions have been reached by other research that instead of relying in econometric models simulates monetary poverty reduction based on different scenarios of growth and inequality.24 The bottom line is that economic growth is not sufficient and reducing economic inequality will be necessary for poverty eradication.

The second problem refers to the broader negative effect that extreme inequality has on development. The problem is that extreme inequalities hamper economic growth and undermine both political equality and stability. Recent research by IMF presents compelling evidence that inequality is harmful for growth, and that indeed more equal societies experience faster and durable growth.25 Joseph Stiglitz and other economists have expressed concern about the damaging economic dynamics that extreme inequality cause in growth and economic stability more broadly. The problem is that increase inequality (especially when at the top of the distribution)

21

lessens aggregate demand that then slow economic growth. As a result, monetary authorities are inclined to offset these effects through measures that contribute to credit bubbles and lead to economic instability. 26 Evidence indicates that growth over the last two decades was highest in the median, and precisely at the top 1% of the global income distribution which is a harmful inequality for economic stability (see graph). 27 In summary, the growing extreme inequality is bad for growth, and it may also cause economic instability that undermines progress in poverty reduction. In addition to the economic argument, there are concerns about interlink to other spheres such as political equality, where those at the very top are increasingly in better place to influence and being listen by governments and so steering public policies.28 Extreme inequality also undermines social cohesion and creates conditions for social instability, among a series of other harmful effects for development.

Box 6: Extreme economic inequality

Source: OECD (2014) United States Tackling High Inequalities Creating Opportunities for All

Source: Lakner and Milanovic (2013) Global income distribution

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• Inequality in life chances and reinforcing dynamics. The worse manifestation of inequality is certainly inequality of opportunities. A child’s life chances to be free of basic deprivations and to thrive in life should not be determined before he or she is born. This is bad for children, but it is also an “economic inefficiency” as it means children are unable to contribute to country development in their full capacity. Consider for example the window of opportunity related to demographic transition. Countries will only fully take advantage of having a large young labour force if children grow healthy, educated and realised their full potential. It is argued that China’s advance in basic education and healthcare in the 70’s and 80’s contributed substantially to today fast economic growth, while India still experience substantial inequalities in both of these dimensions.29 Unfortunately, the rising of global economic inequity is interlinked to inequality in other dimensions, and more broadly inequality of opportunities and lack of social mobility. Inequality has complex detrimental effects; Children are often acutely aware of inequalities with their peers, with damaging impacts on their self-esteem, aspirations and long term achievement.30 There are also concerns about persistent and damaging inequalities. Latin American countries that have been successful in reducing economic inequality during the last decade still face important inequalities in education and barriers to social mobility. Some of these inequalities are manifested in the significant difference in education quality of public and private schooling (see graph). A recent report from World Bank Latino America shows an education divide using data from the international test scores from the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Evidence is tricking, for example in Peru, only 18% of public school students were able to achieve a score of 2 or higher in the mathematic test, a score achieved by 75% of their private-school counterpart. Naturally, this wide inequality in education affects social mobility and is ultimately inefficient for country development as children are not realising their full potential. Similar inequalities occur in access to basic healthcare and other dimensions. There is today greater consensus on the relevance of tackling these forms of inequalities for country development which is evident by recent statements of IMF Director Christine Lagarde: “in response to that risk that rising [economic] inequality actually conflict with growth, the least that should be done, that must be done is proper investment in health and education so there is opportunity for all to actually reach their potential, participate in growth, participate in the job market”.31 The argument is that the world should not move to a Globalization of indifference but instead to a Globalization of opportunities, Globalization of prosperity, Globalization of inclusion. Universal Health Coverage policies advocated by the WHO and World Bank among other are instruments to precisely reduce these forms of inequalities.32 Summing up, there is concern that raising economic inequality has been associated to inequality in opportunities, life chances and lack of social mobility. Inequality in children’s life chances matter in its own sake as a matter of social justice, but

23

reducing these forms of inequalities is also instrumental for country development and ultimately for poverty eradication.

Box 7: Inequality in life chances and reinforcing dynamics

Students of private school in LAC outperform their public school peers on international tests

Source: World Bank LAC (2014) Social Gains in the Balance: A Fiscal Policy Challenge for Latin America & the Caribbean

• Inequality between social groups – a concern on those that are being left behind.

Evidence shows that although countries are making important overall progress in MDGs, in some countries certain groups are being left behind, and gaps are often widening.33 The poorest regions or disadvantage groups are simply not progressing at the same pace; let alone catching up with more advantage one. Again, this is not just an issue of social justice, but research show that persistence inequalities between groups can lead to violent conflicts that may undermine development progress in the long run.34 This raises concerns about the need of having an equity approach to poverty reduction, and being able to improve the life of those that are “hardest to reach”. Consider the case of Kenya and gaps between subnational regions and the urban/rural divide. In term of multidimensional poverty, the central urban region of Kenya is in a better position than average Indonesia, while the North Eastern Rural part is worse than average Niger (see graph). While the evidence shows the gap may be reducing, wide inequalities between regions still persist (see graph).35 Overcoming these inequalities implies confronting the wider processes and dynamics that reinforce them. Research on Kenya, indicates that unequal public spending patterns have played no small part in creating these disparities, and that precisely the review of public spending, for example in education, could reduce these gaps and contribute more broadly to accelerating economic growth.36 Reducing group based inequality still remains an important challenge. The “leave no one behind” principle introduced by the high level panel report on post2015 aims precisely to correct this blind spot of the MDGs, by promoting equitable progress. Incidentally, this links to the concept of shared prosperity, but one that goes beyond share economic growth and also considers share prosperity in the many dimensions

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of human wellbeing. A world where children enjoy equal life chances to survive and thrives in life regardless of their circumstances.

Box 8: Inequality between social groups

Source: Alkire & Santos (2010) Multidimensional Poverty Index

Source: Alkire & Roche (2013) How multidimensional poverty went down?

Implications:

Global and national concerns on inequality will increase, partly related to social justice arguments on shared prosperity, but also for the instrumental impact that extreme inequality of outcomes and inequality of opportunities have on broader processes of development. What this means is that, even if poverty reduction remains the main focus of the new Sustainable Development Goals, dealing with various form of inequality will be paramount for the success of the new framework. The next Global Campaign should consider a coherent strategy to engage with issues of inequality. Naturally, inequality is a more political topic and it requires dialogue and actions at a national level. Save the Children can contribute to this dialogue by providing better understanding on the consequences that inequality has for children. While deep inequalities have existed for a long time, campaigning on this topic becomes more relevant now as there is a far greater understanding of the impacts of inequality. Further analysis and research are of course required.

f) New technologies, access to information & accountability

The pace of technological change is accelerating. It took Americans more than 30 years for technology invented in the XIX century (electricity, telephone or radio) to be used by 25% of the US population, 18 years for colour TV (1951), 13 years for mobile phone (1983) and only

25

7 years for World Wide Web (1991).37 A fast absorption of new technology is equally happening across the world with respect to access to internet and mobile phone (see graph). There are at least two aspects worth considering associated to this trend:

• Are new technologies benefiting the poor?§ There is no question that new technologies have contributed to quality of life and empowered people. From the small holders in Uganda who can check prices before journeying to market38, through the illiterate person in India who can petition against corruption with a missed call. 39 However, there is wide debate in the literature about whether new technologies have brought substantial improvements to livelihoods, health and welfare. On the ‘pro’ side are those who consider new technologies provide information or communications which can facilitate poor people to participate in markets.40 Information technology might also facilitate the process of changing economic activity.41 While a number of case studies highlight the benefits of new technologies for poor people to participate successfully in markets42, there is still a debate on whether this has brought a substantial step forward for the most disadvantaged people in the world.43 Other debates in the literature discuses about initiatives on providing health and education via computers and mobile phones, concluding that a complexity of factors intersect to determine whether they are successful or not.44 As technological change is accelerating, further experimentation and learning on how new technologies may be used for poverty alleviation and development is still needed.

• Big data and accountability - new forms of activism: New technologies also offer unique opportunities for data sharing which may be used for accountability, and may be enhanced by online social media networks and new forms of activism.45 Evidence indicates that while interstate violent conflicts may be decreasing, internal conflicts have been on the rise since the second half of the XX century (see graph). Recent research also shows that world protests increased during the period 2006 and 2013 (see graph).46 What is unique of some of these new protests is the use of online social media networks as a way to share information and organize themselves. These new forms of technology played an important role in various protest, including the occupied movement, the Arab Spring and recent protests in Brazil. There has been also much debate about the role of social media in the recent London riots.47 There is plenty of academic research underway and debate on the role that social media really played in these events, and whether new technologies are liberating or complicating democratic development. For example, there are discussions on whether media really brings us closer to the reality of conflicts or whether the ‘news’ are manipulated during conflicts.48 The potential of new forms of social media for the next Global Campaign is further discussed in a parallel research about the Landscape of Campaigns. At this stage all that matter is to highlight the trend in the use of social media by new forms of activism, and that the Global Campaign should consider the risks and opportunities this may bring to accountability and democratic processes.

Implications: § The data cited in this section is drawn from an analysis conducted by Dr. Grace Kite.

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The pace of technological change is accelerating and the amount of information available has reached levels that were unimaginable in the past. While there is evidence that mobile phone technology is changing the life of many for better, it is still unclear if unequal access will also deepen inequality. Naturally, there are risks and opportunities and it depends on the way they are used, and on the mechanisms in place to diminish the risks for children. The potentials are significant and it is important for Save the Children to engage in these new technologies through programming and research and evaluate how they can best be used to improve the life of many.

The available capacity for information sharing and potential for accountability is one of the features to explore, as well as engaging in emerging forms of activism. The dynamism of social networks offers vast opportunities – yet it is unclear if they are truly liberating or if in the immediate future they will complicate governance. As with other trends, it would be better to engage than be passive and making use of technology to further our cause while ensuring children are properly protected and we are doing things in a safe way. For example, we should better understand how data is used by new forms of activism, what data comes from trusted sources and how to generally process and manage Big Data for the benefits of our cause.

27

Box 9: New technologies and trends on democratic/authoritarian regimes

Source: Figure from Foreign Policy at Brookings (2014) The State of the International Order

28

Box 10: Prevalence of conflicts and world protests

Source: Figure from National Intelligence Council (2012),

data from Centre from International Development and Conflict Management.

Number of World Protests by Main Grievance/Demand, 2006-2013

Source: Figure from Ortiz et al(2013) World Protest 2006- 2013

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g) Changing in values, norms, and mentalities

Naturally, values, norms, and mentalities are also changing and will continue doing so at global and national level. In relation to the next Global Campaign it is worth distinguishing:

• Societal changes on values and norms: In the one hand there are important changes happening at societal level, and it is important to recognize that processes are not linear and changes may not always go in the right direction. As a way to illustrate the complex process of norm change, the graph below shows a conceptual proposal from a recent research discussing the drivers of change and forces maintaining discriminatory gender norms affecting adolescent girls.49 It is suggested that change can be rapid and abrupt or incremental and unnoticed, and that it is often complex, messy and non -linear. It also suggests that agency plays an important role in challenging norms (at individual and collective action). Surely, implementation of the Convention on the Right of the Child goes well beyond institutional set ups, but in order to endure progress new norms and values needs to be truly embraced at all societal level.

• Changes on private sector and shared values: Much is currently discussed about changes in the role of the private sector and on their risks and opportunities. The topic also emerged during the interview process. While it may be early to call for the impact of this trend, it is clear the debate is changing and there is a shift in global partnership thinking towards shared value creation.50

Implications:

While values, norms and mentalities will continue changing, Save the Children should recognize that processes are not linear and changes may not always go in the right direction. The next Global Campaign should contribute in shaping changes in values, norms and mentalities that have a positive impact in the life of children, by riding the wave and building momentum around progress. The campaign must continue creating awareness and challenging mores and practices that contravene the right of the child. As changes in the role of the private sector offer risks and opportunities, the campaign should contribute in shaping the current trend, and may identify case studies that can be champions or models of change in the right direction. Challenges are not few, but enduring progress occurs when new norms and values are truly embraced at all societal levels.

30

Source:

Figure from

Marcus, Rachel and Caroline Harper (2014) Gender justice and social norms

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6. Summary of implications for next Global Campaign

• Consider the impact of climate change in every area of work including the next Global Campaign. At least a climate risk analysis should take place at the concept and design stage of the global campaign, and analysis and research should be planned to better understand how climate change will affect achieving the aims of the campaign.

• Be prepared to confront new forms of poverty, while finishing the task of eradicating extreme poverty. While we are the generation that may see eradication of extreme forms of poverty and deprivations, the task will become more complex as we confront new forms of poverty. The next Global Campaign requires a strategy that deals with the complexity of poverty eradication in poor and stable MICs as well as in FACs. In MICs, poverty eradication will have to do more with national policies and inequality, while FACs will demand persistent international response. As extreme absolute poverty goes down, we will face other forms of poverty including chronic poverty, vulnerability, relative poverty and multidimensional poverty. Our advocacy and campaigning may need to get more political at the national level if we are to impact people who may in many cases, by action or inaction, have been marginalised for political, social or cultural reasons. Campaigning will have to deal with this complexity which may require longer terms and more complex strategies.

• Develop a coherent strategy to engage with issues of inequality: Concerns with extreme inequality is growing as well as a general consensus that it is paramount to reduce harmful inequalities as a matter of social justice but also, more broadly, for its instrumental role in development. While deep inequalities have existed for a long time, campaigning on this topic becomes more relevant now as there is a far greater understanding of the impact of that inequality. Even if the main focus is to reduce extreme forms of poverty and deprivation, dealing with various forms of inequality will be required in order to accelerate progress or even to avoid experiencing reversal. Naturally, this is a challenging political topic at national level that requires dialogue. Save the Children should develop a coherent strategy to engage in issues of inequality which should include further research and understanding of the complex underlying factors.

• Ensure that economic progress and recovery delivers for children. Economic progress in emerging economies has not always been accompanied by equivalent progress for the life of children. Economic crisis and recent volatility have on the other hand frequently affected children disproportionately. Regardless of how specific the topic of the next Global Campaign is, Save the Children should ensure that economic progress and recovery delivers for children.

• Building resilience and protection against shocks. Changes are commonly non-linear or predictable but come in the form of crises and shocks. Save the Children should be aware of the uncertainties and various risks ahead associated to economic crises, resource scarcity, violent conflicts, natural disasters and also unpredictable pandemics, just to mention a few. As the world makes progress in eradicating extreme absolute forms of poverty, the difficulties in coping with crises and shocks entail that many will find barriers to thrive and

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develop their full potential, some will be at risk of falling back again into poverty, and even some of the currently poor will see their condition deteriorate with slims chances of overcoming chronic poverty.

• Urbanization implies opportunities and new risks. The world will become more urban with further concentration in megacities – Will countries/cities be prepared to adjust to these changes? Who to influence & how to ensure changes at this level? Internal migration and issues around growing informal settlements may become politicised topics, while social inequality will become more evident and put further pressure on the system.

• Be prepared for demographic transitions. Some countries will experience “windows of opportunities” while others will see unprecedented aging and slow down of economic growth. There will be a less absolute and relative number of children in high and upper middle income countries, and some countries in East Asia and the Pacific. There will be an attention shift towards elderly population and so it will become harder to advocate for children.

• Ensure protection for “children on the move”. While issues of “children on the move” may not be a topic for a global campaign, it is an area that requires further research, specific programmatic responses, and delineating broader policy proposals.

• New strategies for a new global order. The current global order represents a challenge for a Global Campaign. Traditional global campaigns focusing on global institutions and main players seem limited and distant from where changes are taking and can take place. However, working at a national level and through various networks is more complex for a global movement. There is also concern of growing mistrust on institution including global/national, inter-governmental/non-governmental ones. Save the Children will need to campaign with a new set of partners which may include regional/local governments rather than national ones. The challenge is to design new strategies for this new global order.

• Promote peace and good governance. As trust in global institutions decline, and they seem unable to adapt fast enough to changes, INGOs as Save the Children have a greater responsibility in contributing to promote peace and good governance. The strategy of the next Global Campaign should also take into account this role of the Save the Children Global Movement.

• Engage with new technology and forms of activism. Technological change is happening at a pace never seen before, and new dynamic forms of activism are increasingly assisted by social media. The amount of information being shared is vast, representing opportunities and risks. It is unclear whether these new technologies are truly liberating or if in the immediate future they will complicate governance. In any case, it is better to engage than be passive, and making use of technology to further our cause while ensuring children are properly protected and we are doing things in a safe way.

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• Become a movement that shifts norms. Enduring progress occurs when new norms and values are truly embraced at all societal levels. The next Global Campaign should contribute to in shaping a change in values, norms and mentalities that may have a positive impact on the life of children, by riding the wave and building momentum around progress. This includes celebrating examples of success, engaging people in and further challenging the practices that contravene the rights of the child, as well as contributing to shape the current trend on the new role of the private sector.

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Endnotes:

1 Including: Save the children. (2013). MTSR Considerations on External Trends Challenging trends, emerging roles and strategic considerations (PDF – PPT) (SC) 18 April 2013. London: Save the Children; Save the Children. (2013). A 2025 social fiction: Megatrends & possible implications for Save the Children Looking 10-15 years ahead to start the planning now; Save the Children. (2013). Key trends in Asia. Child Protection Initiative. Asia Child Protection Technical Advisors Meeting. London: Save the Children; Save the Children. (2013). Emerging global and Asian issues, their impact on the work of development organisations in general and Save the Children in particular. Annual Review and Reflection meeting. London: Save the Children; Renberg, G. (2011). What is going on? Global context analysis 2011 for Save the Children Sweden. Stockholm: Save the Children; Cox, B. (2011). Campaigning for international justice. Learning lessons (1991-2011). What next? (2011-2015). London: Save the Children. 2 The presentation can be found at: http://prezi.com/nvk7q3gacxm4/?utm_campaign=share&utm_medium=copy&rc=ex0share 3 In addition to the reports mentioned in note 1, the following global trend analyses were included: Evans, A, (2011). 2020 Development Futures. London: Action Aid; Glenn, J.C., Gordon, T.J. and Florescu, E. (2012) 2012 State of the Future. Washington DC: The Millennium Project; Green, D. (2012). The changing external context. OISP 2012-2016. Oxford: Oxfam; Kharas, H. And Rogerson, A. (2012). ODI Horizon 2025: Creative destruction in the aid industry. London: Overseas Development Institute; National intelligence Council. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Washington: National intelligence Council; Trocaire. (2011). Leading edge 2020: Critical thinking on the future of international development. The Catholic Agency for World Development: Maynooth, Ireland; World Economic Forum (2013). Global Agenda Outlook 2014. Cologne/ Geneva: WEF. 4 Foreign Policy at Brookings (2014): The State of the International Order 5 UNFPA (2011) State of the World Population, New York: UNFPA. 6 A reflection on the implications for Save the Children is further developed in: Save the Children (2013). A 2025 social fiction: Megatrends & possible implications for Save the Children. Looking 10-15 years ahead to start the planning now. London: Save the Children. 7 Lakner and Milanovic (2013) Global income distribution: from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession. Policy Research Working Paper, No WPS 6719. 8 National Intelligence Council (2012) Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council: Washington. 9 National Intelligence Council (2012) Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council: Washington. 10 National Intelligence Council (2012) Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council: Washington. 11 National Intelligence Council (2012) Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council: Washington. 12 Naim, Moises (2013) From Boardrooms to Battlefields and Churches to States, Why Being In Charge Isn’t What It Used to Be, Basic Books: New York. 13 On reform global institutions reform see: Goldin, Ian (2013) Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing, and what we can do about it, Oxford University Press: Oxford; and also Maxwell, Simon (2005) How to help reform multilateral institutions: an eight-step program for more effective collective action, Global Governance, 11(4), p415-424. 14 The recent protest in Brazil, growing disatisfaction in urban middle class in Russia or protest again corruption in India have been mentioned as examples of this distrust, see: Foreign Policy at Brookings (2014): The State of the International Order. 15 ODI (2014) The road to zero: the Chronic Poverty Report launch 2014, ODI: London. 16 For monetary poverty see: Sumner, A. (2012a). Where Do the Poor Live? World Development 40(5), 865–877. For multidimensional poverty see: Alkire, Sabina; José Manuel Roche and Andy Sumner (2013) Where Do the World’s Multidimensionally Poor People Live?, OPHI Working Paper No. 61, University of Oxford:Oxford. 17 Doley, Michael and Joseph Stiglitz (2014) Eliminating Extreme Inequality: A Sustainable Development Goal, 2015-2030. Notes for UN 8th Open Working Group.

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18 Lakner and Milanovic (2013) Global income distribution: from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession. Policy Research Working Paper, No WPS 6719. 19 Lustig, Nora; Lopez-Calva, Luis F. and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez (2012) Declining Inequality in Latin America in the 2000s: The case of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. Working Paper 307. CGD: Washington. 20 Recent work by Lakner and Milanovic (2013) shows that when adjusted by underreporting Gini remains unchanged over the last twenty years. Before adjustment the decrease is only of two point in the Gini. 21 World Bank LAC (2014) Social Gains in the Balance: A Fiscal Policy Challenge for Latin America & the Caribbean. World Bank: Washington. 22 Dreze, Jean and Amartya Sen (2011) Putting Growth In Its Place: It has to be but a means to development, not an end in itself, Outlook India < http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?278843>. 23 Save the Children (2013) Getting to Zero: How we can be the generation that ends poverty, London: Save the Children. 24 Chandy, Laurence; Ledlie Natasha and Veronika Penciakova (2013) The Final Countdown: Prospects for Ending Extreme Poverty by 2030, Policy Paper 2014-04, Global Economy and Development at Brookings: Washington. 25 Ostry, Jonathan; Andrew Berg and Charalambos Tsangarides (2014) Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth. IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/14/02, IMF: Washington. 26 Doley, Michael and Joseph Stiglitz (2014) Eliminating Extreme Inequality: A Sustainable Development Goal, 2015-2030. Notes for UN 8th Open Working Group. 27 Lakner and Milanovic (2013) Global income distribution: from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession. Policy Research Working Paper, No WPS 6719. 28 A recent report from Oxfam presents compelling argument on how political institutions are undermined and governments are inclined to attend demands from elites: Fuentes-Nieva, Ricardo and Nicholas Galasso (2014) Working for the Few: Political capture and economic inequality, Oxfam Briefing Papers, Oxfam International: Oxfam. 29 See Amartya Sen article in the difference between China and India at: Amartya, Sen (2013) Why India Trails China, New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/20/opinion/why-india-trails-china.html?hp&_r=1& 30 See for example Hoff, K. and Pandey, P. (2006) ‘Discrimination, social identity and durable inequalities’ American Economic Review 96, 2 pp206-211; Save the Children and Young Lives (2013) Growing up with the promise of the MDGs Save the Children: London; Woodhead, M., Dornan, P. and Murray, H. (2013) What inequality means for children: evidence from Young Lives.Young Lives: London. 31 Statement of IMF Director Christine Lagarde during interview at Question time in Australia: http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s3941811.htm 32 Universal Health Coverage is a policy agenda that seeks to overcome the unfair and avoidable inequalities in access to health care. Defined as ensuring that all people have access to quality needed health services without financial hardship, it is fundamentally about redistributing resources to disassociate coverage of health services and financial risk protection from ability to pay. This movement has the ability to advance social protection, fostering household resilience and promoting productivity and economic growth. See the 2010 World Health Report: http://www.who.int/whr/2010/en/ 33 UNICEF raised concern on this issue in their 2010 report “Narrowing the gap to Meet the Goals” where they state the need for an ‘equity-focused’ approach. 34 Yoichi Mine, Frances Stewart, Sakiko Fukuda-Parr and Thandika Mkandawire (2013) Preventing Violent Conflict in Africa Inequalities, Perceptions and Institutions. London: Palgrave Macmillan, p 328. 35 Alkire & Roche (2013) How multidimensional poverty went down?, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, University of Oxford: Oxford. http://www.ophi.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/How-Multidimensional-Poverty-Went-Down-Dynamics-and-Comparisons.pdf?79d835 36 Watkins , Kevin and Woubedle Alemayehu (2012) Financing for a fairer, more prosperous Kenya: A review of the public spending challenges and options for selected arid and semi-arid counties, Center for Universal Education at Brookings, Working Paper, Brookings: Washington. 37 National Intelligence Council (2012) Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council: Washington.

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38 Martin and Abbot (2013) Development Calling: The Use of Mobile Phones in Agriculture Development in Uganda http://mak.ac.ug/documents/IFIP/DevelopmentCalling.pdf 39 As occurred in the Anna Hazare campaign in India in 2013. 35 million people ‘signed’ a demand for anti-corruption action using missed calls. See http://www.policymic.com/articles/29910/this-new-mobile-tool-is-redefining-the-power-of-petitions 40 For example, Annamalai, K and Rao, S (2003) What Works: ITC's E-Choupal and Profitable Rural Transformation, World Resources Institute, http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/pdf/dd_echoupal.pdf 41 Singh, A and Ahuja, M (2006) Evaluation of Computerisation of Land Records in Karnataka, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol - XLI No. 01, January 07, 2006 42 In journals like “Information Technology and Development” and discussed in ICT4D conferences. Some of these find impressive results, particularly in the cases where systems are designed in consultation with the poor people that will use them, and which work within existing social systems for example: Harris, R (2012) Information and Communication Technologies for Poverty Alleviation, Chapter 5 “The Lessons of Experience” UNDP Asia-Pacific Development Information Programme (UNDP-APDIP) 43 See for example: Avgerou, Chrisanthi (2004) The study of information technology in developing countries In: Andersen, K.V. and Vendelo, M.T., (eds.) The past and future of information systems. Elsevier Butterworth-Heinenmann, Oxford, UK 44 For example, in 2012 the World Bank carried out a survey of mobile health applications. Despite offering a positive narrative around the potential of such systems, they found that a wide range of factors – from finance, through co-ordination with existing health services, and issues of patient privacy and confidentiality – could present an obstacle. Reference in: Kelly, Tim; Friederici, Nicolas; Minges, Michael; Yamamichi, Masatake. 2012. 2012 Information and communications for development : maximizing mobile. Washington, DC: World Bank. 45 This topic was covered in some length in: Save the Children; Save the Children. (2013). A 2025 social fiction: Megatrends & possible implications for Save the Children Looking 10-15 years ahead to start the planning now. 46 Ortiz, Isabel; Sara Burke; Mohamed Berrada and Henán Cortéz (2013) World Protest 2006- 2013. Working Paper 2013. Initiative for Policy Dialogue and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, University of Columbia: New York. 47 See for example: http://www.theguardian.com/media/2012/mar/28/uk-riots-twitter-facebook ; or also http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-14457809 48 See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-26248178 49 Marcus, Rachel and Caroline Harper (2014) Gender justice and social norms – processes of change for adolescent girls, Report, ODI: London. http://www.odi.org.uk/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/8831.pdf 50 See for example: Porter, Michael E. and Mark R. Kramer (2011) Creating Shared Value, Harvard Business Review <http://hbr.org/2011/01/the-big-idea-creating-shared-value> or Save the Children Private Sector Transparency and Post 2015 <http://www.savethechildren.org.uk/sites/default/files/images/Private_sector_transparency_briefing.pdf>

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Appendix 1: Internal Save the Children Interviews

CEOs & Country Directors

• David Skinner, Ghulam Qadri & Arshad

Mahmood (SC Pakistan)

• Heloisa Oliveira, (SC Brazil)

• Thomas Chandy, Shireen Miller (SC

India)

• Tove Wang (SC Norway)

Global Initiative Directors

• Desmond Bermingham, GI Education

(SCNorway)

• Kathryn Bolles, GI Health and Nutrition

(SC US)

• Lena Karlsson, GI Director Child

Protection (SC Sweeden)

• Lene Steffen, GI Director Child Rights &

Governance (SC Denmark)

GAG - Members

• Brendan Cox, Director Advocacy Division

(SC UK)

• Eva Geidenmak, Director, Section for

Thematic Support, Int. Prog. (SC

Sweeden)

• Kitty Arie, Policy and Advocacy Division

(SC UK)

• Michael Klosson, Vice President Policy &

Humanitarian Response SC US

• Monica Sydgård, Head of Advocacy at

Save the Children Norway (CS Norway)

• Patrick Watt, Global Campaign and

Advocacy Director (SCI)

Other interviews

• David McNair Policy and Research (SC

UK)

• Gerorge Graham, Advoacy (SC UK)

• Jonas Keiding Lindholm, Deputy

Secretary General (SC Denmark)

• Juliano Fiori, Humanitarian (SC UK)

• Michael Anglade, Campaigns and

Advocacy Director Asia (SCI)

• Simon Wright, Policy and Research (SC

UK)

• Tom Ling, Programme Policy & Quality

(SC UK)

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Appendix 2: External Interviews

• Alberto Minujin, Prof. at the New School; and Director of Equity for Children

• Alex Evan, Senior Fellow NYU Centre on International Cooperation / Contributor global

dashboard

• Andy Sumner, Co-Director International Development Institute at Kings College

• Banko Milanovic, Former Wold Bank, current City University New York

• Corinne Woods, UNDP, UN Millennium Campaign

• David Anthony, Chief, Policy Advisory Unit, UNICEF

• Duncan Green, Oxfam Special Advisor

• George Ronald Gray, Chief Economist, Regional Bureau for LAC, UNDP New York

• Gonzalo Fanjul, Researcher, ISGlobal & CIECODE

• Guenay Salazar, the New School; and Equity for Children

• Homi Kharas, Deputy Director for the Global Economy and Development program at the

Brookings, Lead Author and Executive Secretary of the Secretariat supporting the High Level

Panel advising the U.N. Secretary General on the Post2015 development agenda

• James Foster, Prof. of Economics and International Affairs; Director, Institute for

International Economic Policy, George Washington University

• Jan Vandemoortele, Independent researcher, served in various capacities in UNDP, including

Resident Humanitarian Coordinator to Pakistan, and Director of the Poverty Group at UNDP

NY during the MDGs design (2001-05)

• John Christensen, Tax Justice Movement

• Jorge Freyre, Coordinator, RedLamyC

• Jos Verbeek, World Bank, Lead Economist/Acting Manager Global Modelling and Analytics

(GMA)

• Kevin Watkins, Director Overseas Development Institute, former non-resident senior fellow

at the Centre for Universal Education at the Brookings Institution, and former director and

lead author of the UNESCO's Education for All Global Monitoring Report

• Leila Zerrougui, Special Rep. of the Secretary-General for Children & Armed Conflict

• Marta Santos Pais, UN Specialist Representative to the Secretary-General, Children and

Violence

• Melanie Llana, Child Rights Coalition Asia

• Nick Rees, Researcher, Policy Advisory Unit, UNICEF

• Richard Morgan, Senior Advisor UNICEF Executive Office Including Post-2015 Agenda

• Simon Maxwell, Development Economist, Former Director ODI

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Appendix 3: An overview of global trends (Annotated Literature Review)

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An overview of global trends

Annotated Literature Review

Authors: Lana Pasic & José Manuel Roche2

March 2014

2 We thank contributions from Grace Kite and Sophie Dicker.

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CONTENTS

Abstract List of Acronyms 1. Introduction 2. Analysis of global trends 3. Conclusion Recommended further reading References

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Abstract

The ever changing global environment presents a number of opportunities and challenges for the work of international non-governmental organisations in the area of child rights and wellbeing. This literature review provides an overview of various global trends and new political, economic, social and environmental context within which governments, INGOs, businesses and other stakeholders operate. The literature points to the increasing inequality, rise of middle income countries, changing balance of power, demographic changes, urbanisation and migration, technological advancements, and humanitarian disasters arising from conflicts and natural disasters, among others. We conclude that the trends present both, risks and opportunities, and that preparedness, responsiveness, vision and long-term planning are needed in order to take advantage of the developments.

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Acronyms

CSOs Civil Society Organisations

EFA Education For All

EU European Union

HIV Human Immunodeficiency Syndrome

IDPs Internally Displaced Population

INGOs International Nongovernmental Organisations

LICs Low Income Countries

MICs Middle Income Countries

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MNCs Multinational Companies

ODA Overseas Development Assistance

UN United Nations

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1. Introduction

Global context is constantly changing and evolving, brining new opportunities, risks and challenges to governments, organisations and other actors working in development, particularly in the context of child rights and wellbeing. Although numerous changes have happened at the global level over the last 25 years, a number of new trends are expect to emerge.

This literature review presents an overview of main social, economic and environmental trends which will be influencing our work and global events over the next decade. The objective of the review is to understand the potential impact of the trends and emerging challenges on child rights and wellbeing, and look at proposed global solutions. Contemporary and future trends pose challenges and present opportunities, and awareness of these developments is a first step towards timely and appropriate response.

This review looks at the published work of Save the Children and other international non-governmental organisations, reports of international agencies, forecasts by various think tanks and books and academic sources.

The literature reveals changing economic and political balance of power, rise of China and India, and emergence of middle income countries and non-state actors and social movements. The increasing global inequality presents another challenge for the poor and particularly to children’s development and opportunities, in terms of not only economic, but also education and health outcomes. New forms of violence, crime and conflict, as well as climate change, natural disasters and scarcity of land, water, energy and other resources have created a context of increased insecurities. The growth of the social media has influenced not only global networking, but also spread of ideas, knowledge and values. Finally, the demographic changes, including the increasing number of people, especially youth bulges, are expected to have effects on youth employment, social protection and living conditions.

New trends, challenges and risks also create a different space for the work of INGOs, particularly when it comes to the changing donor landscape, emergence of new donors, changing focus from the ODA to the domestic resources, and changing geography of poverty. New environment will thus affect the ways in which these organisations respond to the child rights realities across the world and the extent to which they can contribute to creation of space for child development and wellbeing.

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2. Analysis of global trends

The analysis of global trends is based on Save the Children’s documents and publications, such as Mid-Term Strategic Review, recommendations, and Strategy, and particularly publications relating to regional trends, publications and reports by other INGOs, including Oxfam’s and Action Aid’s overview of trends, as well as the academic sources and reports by World Economic Forum, Overseas Development Institute and Oxford Martin School.

Besides for the literature which gives overview of the trends, some works present overview of specific developments. These documents will also be given a space in the review, but the more detailed list can be found in the recommended further reading section.

Main trends identified through this review include changes in demographics, with both, increasing population, large youth population and ageing, migration and urbanisation, rapid and expanding communication networks, rise of new actors and movements and new forms of activism, changing location of poverty and deeper and wider inequalities, climate change, resource shortages, conflict and fragility, disasters and need for humanitarian responses.

Renberg, G. (2011). What is going on? Global Context Analysis 2011 for Save the Children Sweden. Stockholm: Save the Children.

This document is a global context analysis for Save the Children Sweden. It aims to provide picture of overall trends for the future, by discussing a number of important areas, including changes in the world economy, rapid urbanisation, communications and democracy movements, climate change, humanitarian disasters and migration flows, the Millennium Development Goals, children and youth rights and principles of work and cooperation for the CSOs.

Renberg argues that the centre of economic power is shifting towards East and South, which is not a new trend in itself, but is the one that will intensify in the future. There is a rapid increase in the number of people living in urban areas, spread of communication technology and growing dissatisfaction among the poor and the youth. These factors have influenced the rise of social movements and protests, in the Middle East, Europe and Israel. In addition, climate change and disaster management is a concern which arose as a consequence of global warming, droughts and floods, all of which are difficult to forecast, but cause great consequences for the society.

As UNHCR believed that 43 million people are currently displaced, humanitarian disasters and migration flows present an important trends, and political solutions are needed to address forced displacement, starvation and violence. Moreover, the Millennium Development Goals will not be met by the 2015 deadline, and even though the progress has

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been made in education, health and child equality, there is still a need for greater international commitment in terms of resources. Over the next decade, it is also expected that issues of child and youth rights will gain on prominence, especially in the area of birth registration and citizenship, child protection and exploitation, girls’ rights and quality of education. Civil society organisations will also need to re-examine their work and focus on ways of improving their cooperation and collaboration with other development actors. This will include strengthening Paris Declaration on aid effectiveness, principles of Accra Agenda for Action and Busan 2011 High Level Forum, as well as the Istanbul Principles for CSO Development Effectiveness and corporate social responsibility.

The document also states that this list of trends and issues is not exhaustive and it outlines additional topics we should pay attention to in the future, including democracy, corruption, human rights, conflict, HIV and trafficking.

Save the Children. (2013). MTSR Considerations on External Trends Challenging trends, emerging roles and strategic considerations (PDF – PPT), 18 April 2013. London: Save the Children.

This PowerPoint presentation gives outline of 2010-2015 strategy for Save the Children, current and emerging trends and new developments.

The presentation identifies three types of factors, which are a part of existing strategy: main trends, trends for INGOs and persistent inequalities. Main current trends are food shortage, urban poverty, climate change, migration and widening gap between opportunities for youth and population in lower income countries. Considering these changes, the report reveals some of the main trends for international NGOs, such as need for sustainability, changes in donor funding, rise of new private foundations, increase in requirements for accountability more crowded communications market through technological developments and better access.

Finally, the presentation discusses the persistent inequalities between countries and people, including cases of conflict, HIV prevalence, violence against children, malnutrition, gender inequities, lack of education and still high number of deaths from preventable illnesses in poor countries.

The 2010-2015 strategy identifies three main trends and developments which need to be kept in mind, due to their influence on the global context and impact on the work of the NGOs. These are: rise of the middle-income countries, urbanisation and new forms of activism.

We have been witnessing a rapid growth of the middle income countries, with 108 out of 214 states falling in the category. Although countries differ in many of the characteristics,

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they are all undergoing rapid urbanisation and unequal distribution of wealth, resulting in widening income inequalities. These changes have implications for the work of Save the Children, and other INGOs, as two-third of poor people now live in the middle income countries, yet traditionally development organisations have focused their presence on low-income regions. At the same time, these states are also a potential source of revenue, even though at the moment, there is a limited fundraising from them. Working in middle income countries might provide INGOs with the new model for engaging and working with stakeholders, obtaining funding and collaboration with regional and global powers.

Secondly, increasingly urbanisation and emergence of megacities will continue to shape the future. It is expected that by 2050, more that 70% of world’s population will live in cities. Currently, 65% of urban population lives in slums and poor housing, and this percentage will only increase as the higher number of people move to urban areas. Save the Children is doing some urban programming, but there are no reliable models yet for this work, and organisation will need to be more creative in its response in this area.

Finally, new forms of activism, both formal and informal, are further shaped and aided by the developments in technology. There is an increasing youth and social media activism, which presents opportunities for organisations. In line with this trend, the presentation discusses the extent to which Save the Children could be part of and engage with the new youth movements. Although Save the Children works with youth and is accountable to them, the organisation is not a youth movement.

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The existing and emerging trends have implications, challenges and benefits for Save the Children’s work. In light of the new trends, the organisation should focus on working in urban areas, building resilience and response, confronting inequality, addressing governance, putting youth on the agenda, forging new networks and alliances, adapting to changing donor landscape and tapping into the private sector, building relations with other stakeholders, and re-examining its engagement model in MICs.

Although these trends pose demands for changes, which is a challenge, they could also allow organisation to stay relevant in the field, connect better with the stakeholders and produce more efficient and relevant campaigns. On the other hand, Save the Children also needs to deal with a number of other challenges in its work, such as tokenism, adult involvement in youth organisations and selective participatory requirements.

In order to take full advantage of potential benefits, Save the Children needs to discuss how to utilise the trends in order to achieve its goals, and identify main partners, stakeholders and its capabilities within the new context.

Save the Children (2009). Drivers for Change. Appendix 1 to current Save the Children strategy (2010-2015). London: Save the Children.

The Annex to the current strategy begins by explaining its focus on new global trends, changing NGO environment and contemporary role of Save the Children, especially within the new globalised environment, where the NGOs need to show what value they add.

“The unique added value is our role as a catalyst for change for children. We can generate valuable knowledge about effective solutions by learning from our work – from innovation and delivery on the ground to research, advocacy and campaigning.”

Save the Children needs to play this role within the changing context, and considering new global trends, trends affecting the INGOs and persisting inequalities.

Global trends include icnreasing migration, long term food shortage, urban poverty, climate change and lack of opportunities for youth. In that context, INGOs find themselves faced with the need for sustainable results, tensions around western domination, changing landscape of aid and potential investment from emerging powers, changing donor strategies towards local communities, more access to and spread of communication, rise of new foundations, working on rights and causes rather than symptoms and increasing need to be accountable to beneficiaries. Furthermore, the persisting inequalities, such as violence against children, HIV, conflict, lack of education in fragile and less developed countries, chronic malnutrition, gender and minority inequities and persistence of treatable illnesses, continue to influence the ways in which organisations set their priorities and engage.

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As the new trends shape the global context, Save the Children needs to keep in mind several critical areas which will influence its work, such as technology, people, accountability, outcomes and impact, partnership and communications. Technology will allow for better vertical and horizontal network-building, but will also ensure that the stakeholders are better informed in this process. This will bring changes, but also innovation to the sector. INGOs will need to show how they are accountable to stakeholders, including host governments, donors and beneficiaries and demonstrate the benefits of their work. The work will involve greater partnerships with civil society and private sector, and will require creating additional space for individual and volunteer engagement. The engagement of different stakeholders depends on well-developed communication channels. Communication is crucial in popular mobilisation and creating change, thus it is necessary to encourage better communication and use of new media. Finally, the organisation needs to pay attention to the people within the organisation, their representativeness, skills and abilities.

In conclusion, the Annex addresses competitive environment within which Save the Children works and the organisation’s place within it. It indicates that World Vision, Oxfam and Plan are getting larger share of global funding than Save the Children, and that the organisation should improve in this area.

Save the Children. (2013). A 2025 social fiction: Megatrends & possible implications for Save the Children. Looking 10-15 years ahead to start the planning now. London: Save the Children.

This presentation discusses a number of megatrends which will shape the future developments and impact children’s rights and wellbeing and work of Save the Children. Megatrends include demographic changes, poverty and inequality, technological changes, climate change, scarcity of resources and development of multipolarity and global governance. Demographic changes do not only refer to the increasing number of people in the world, but also concerns such as bulging youth population and imminent ageing, movement of people and urbanisation, as well as people’s changing health characteristics, including obesity and illnesses. In addition to demographic changes, GDP is icnreasing globally and poverty is declining, while there is a rise of the middle class. However, at the same time, inequality and poverty in middle income countries are increasing, and so is the unemployment. With the climate change, resource scarcity is becoming more apparent, particularly when it comes to the scarcity of food, land, energy and water. The scarcity of resources makes conflict over these more probable. The world’s power balance is changing, and we are seeing an increasingly multipolar world. Non-state actors and youth and social movements are gaining more power, and are utilising new technologies and advocating for altruistic economy.

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All of these new trends have impact on global governance, indicating the need for reform of the institutions. Delivery of aid is also affected by these changes due to the emergence of new donors among the middle income countries, new balance of power, rise of regional centres, different development models and South-South cooperation. The changes in aid patterns are a dilemma for Save the Children because middle income countries have the largest number of poor people, but do not necessarily qualify for external funding. This may lead to new ventures, such as PPP, development of new altruistic economy and rise of philanthropy. The presentation also stipulates that, although trends are important for planning, the period over the next fifteen years will be driven by shocks, in the areas of climate, health, resources, governance, economy and geopolitics and it is crucial to focus efforts on building resilience towards these. International NGOs should focus on strengthening resilience and responses to emergencies, addressing inequalities and placing youth high on the agenda and finding new alliances and networks.

Save the Children. (2013). Key trends in Asia. 2013. Child Protection Initiative (CPI). Asia Child Protection Technical Advisors Meeting. London: Save the Children.

The report examines high levels of poverty, violence against children, growing inequality, urbanisation, natural disasters, climate change and conflict, and their impact on the lives of children in Asia.

Although the number of people living below $1.25 has declined from 1.5 billion in 1990, to 0.8 billion in 2008, Asia will still have 330 million people living below the poverty line in 2015. At the same time, middle class in the region has been growing, and is expected to further jump from half a billion in 2009, to 1.7 billion in 2020 and 3.2 billion in 2030, giving the region the highest proportion of the middle class in the world. However, out of ten countries with the highest number of poor people, six are middle income states, and five of them are in Asia: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Philippines. Poverty and inequality will remain to be the biggest challenges in Asia, as the continent had 536 million undernourished people in 2012. The region still experiences high levels of stunting and under-5 mortality rates, and 13 million of children in South Asia are still out of school.

Violence against children, child labour and child marriage are also a notable problem. 46% of women between 20 and 24 years of age in South Asia were married before they turned 18. The region has the highest number of working children under the age of 15- 122.3 million. Corporal punishment is widely practiced, with 95% of children living in countries where they are not legally protected from all forms of corporal punishment by parents, while over 50% of children also have no protection from corporal punishment in schools.

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These bring questions of need for rights-based child protection systems, at the national level and within communities.

In addition, the report identifies increasing inequalities, and particularly when it comes to the marginalised ethnic and minority groups. There is a rapid move to the urban areas and with it the urbanisation of poverty. Parents often migrate to the cities, while leaving children behind. In China, 58 million children are growing up without one or both parents, due to migration. There is also an increasing number of children on the move, who migrate alone, either within or across the borders.

Additional issues concerning children in Asia are related to the impacts of climate change and disasters. In 2011, 116 million people were affected by natural disasters or changing climate, and in 2012, 75 million. There are also a number of ongoing conflicts in the region, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Thailand and Philippines, all of which bring forth the concerns regarding child protection in emergencies.

Save the Children. (2013). Emerging global and Asian issues, their impact on the work of development organisations in general and Save the Children in particular. Annual Review and Reflection meeting. London: Save the Children.

The report addresses key issues of importance for children including poverty, inequality disasters and climate change, urbanisation, technology, and financing. Poverty eradication will remain to be a challenge after 2015 and programming in health, nutrition and education will remain to be relevant, as these services are still inaccessible to a large number of the poor. As there is an increasing inequality, it is important to focus on most marginalised and those who are difficult to reach.

Due to the increasing urbanisation, Save the Children needs to build expertise in urban programming. In Asia, 120 000 people move to cities every day. By 2050, two-thirds of population will live in cities. However, large number of these will be living in slums and experience poverty.

Asia is also particularly vulnerable to disasters and 50% of population in five large Asian cities are at the risk of flooding. Thus, there is a growing need to build resilience and responsiveness, and reduce our vulnerability to disasters and risks.

Access to mobile phones and internet is driving technological advancements in Asia, including e-health and electronic money transfers. Although the region is still a large recipient of ODA, the move towards middle income countries will present the risks for availability of aid, but it will also open the opportunities for accessing domestic wealth. In

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2010, Asia had 1.6 million of high net worth individuals owning $5.6 trillion, and in 2015, it is forecasted that there will be 2.82 million of them, worth $15.81 trillion.

In order to assess the impact of changes on the international NGOs and their working context, we have also analysed a number of reports from other international non-governmental organisations, including Oxfam, Action Aid and Trocaire.

Evans, A. 2011. 2020 Development Futures. Action Aid: London.

2020 Development Futures provides overview of upcoming trends for Action Aid. The report first outlines eight trends and uncertainties which are a result of the “long crisis of globalisation”. Firstly, we are witnessing the changing balance of power, with declining power of the US and emergence of a multipolar world, with G20 and BRICS gaining more grounds, in both economic and political terms.

The changing demographics and increasing numbers of young, working-age population could provide new opportunities, through demographic dividend, or cause conflicts and instabilities, due to lack of employment opportunities. On the financial front, as we are still experiencing the crisis and its consequences, questions are arising regarding the financial regulations and status of dollar as reserve currency. Furthermore, as technological innovations in genetics, biotechnology, energy, computer science and IT are affecting the context in which we operate, we need to keep in mind the potential risks which come with

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these new technologies, and the extent to which the poor could benefit from them. Fifth uncertainty concerns the limited resources. Amid the expansion of the middle classes and middle income countries, the use of resources is increasing and availability of water, energy, land, food and oil is at risk. Increasing protectionism in terms of goods and products is causing concerns about decline of global trade and return to regional and local markets. Together with other changes, growing influence of non-state actors, youth and supranational bodies, is opening a new ways of exerting pressure on politics and shaping global values. Finally, the last uncertainty Evans discusses is global shocks. He argues that it is shocks rather than stresses which will influence global changes in the future. These shocks may be economic, governance, geopolitical, security, infrastructure, health, climate and resource related. All these uncertainties related with globalisation could put poor at a greater risk, or alternatively, could bring about changes which would produce a more just, sustainable and resilient model of development. Evans concludes his report by giving recommendations for Action Aid and its work in the changing global context. He urges INGOs to be ready with concrete ideas and advocacy strategies in order to take advantage of shocks and prepare for resilience, by devising social protection, peace-building, climate adaptation, disaster risk and humanitarian assistance strategies. Members of the civil society organisations should be given a grater space to participate, express their views and be in charge. When it comes to the use of resources, Evans argues that, considering the contemporary consumption patterns and growing middle class, fair distribution and use need to be prioritised. Organisations should specialise in building coalitions with state and non-state actors and range of partners, in order to add more value to advocacy efforts. Advocacy should be targeted at both, emerging economies and rich states, in order to address poverty and social exclusion. Innovation, and particularly innovation by poor, should be a focus of attention. INGOs need to work for poor people, not poor countries. Finally, the organisations and civil society should be prepared for failure, and ready to respond to shocks and stresses, and at the same time, change the way they communicate and present themselves within the development transitions.

Trocaire. (2011). Leading edge 2020: Critical thinking on the future of international development. The Catholic Agency for World Development: Maynooth, Ireland.

Trocaire’s report examines new international trends which will shape development frameworks and affect the future of international NGOs. We are experiencing changes in the international power balance, climate change, new political forces, persistent conflicts and government’s inabilities to reach agreements on these issues. International development framework thus needs to be redefined in line with these changes.

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The five major global trends identified in the report are climate change, shifting geopolitics, demographic changes, pressure on natural resources and widening inequality. Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the development frameworks. Global warming trends have already been reported around the world, and the impact of these changes will be most adverse in poor countries. Even though efforts might be taken to mitigate its effects, climate change is likely to cause more draughts, floods, and humanitarian crises in the coming years. The unipolar world is coming to an end, and there is uncertainty regarding the new geopolitical power arrangements. We are witnessing the rise of China, India, BRICS and G20. The GDP in China, India, Russia and Brazil has been progressively higher and increasing since 2000s, in comparison to the combined GDP of US, Canada, Germany, UK and France. Demographic changes, including population growth, migration and urbanisation, will have a substantial impact during the next decade, as the population size increases to 9 billion by 2050, with greatest growth experienced in the global South.

The population increase will be accompanied by urbanisation, with 70% of people expected to live in urban areas by 2050. Urbanisation, unless coupled with the provision of services, will have implications for the rise in urban poverty, demand for land and water, and thus potential for conflict and violence. Population movements across borders have also increased over the last ten years, with estimated 213 million migrants. This has facilitated cross-border money transfers, as $307 billion in remittances were sent to developing countries in 2009.

Economic and demographic growths also affect the use and availability of natural resources, particularly when it comes to agricultural land. Resources are also a cause for the conflicts

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and violence, and many resource rich countries have experienced fragility and poor governance. Finally, widening inequalities at national, regional and global levels are an important trend, as they will require much higher economic growth and redistribution strategies.

Trocaire’s report also identifies other relevant trends which should be kept in mind, including war on terror, technology, securitisation of aid, gender equality, HIV and education. Finally, it summarizes ten recommendations to the NGOs in order to prepare them to better deal with challenges of changing global context. These include: more and better advocacy, downward accountability, becoming more flexible and responsive, engaging with power and politics, building capacities of southern civil society, planning for a changed funding environment, developing stronger analysis of local context, engaging more with own societies, building a global culture of solidarity and promoting innovation and technology.

Green, D. (2012). The changing external context. Oxfam International Strategic Plan 2012-2016. Oxford: Oxfam.

The document discusses external trends for the period 2012-2016, stating that existing trends, together with the unforeseen shocks, are expected to shape the context within which the INGOs operate. The main trends identified in this Oxfam’s report are geopolitical transformation and economic austerity, and age of protests and reform.

Since economic crisis in the G8, we are witnessing the emergence of new economic powers, namely India and China. South-South trade and investment has also grown, but so have their carbon emissions. In light of that, there is a growing awareness of ecological impact of human activity, especially in terms of water and food prices. The economic and geopolitical changes are expected to have an impact on levels of international aid, which will require a change of focus towards the domestic sources of funding, mostly taxation.

When it comes to protests and reforms, economic transformations had also come in hand with political changes. Arab uprising has reconfirmed the idea that active citizenship lies at the heart of changes. It is expected that similar protests and reforms will take place in other regions over the next few years.

Besides for changes in the context, there are also changes in the way we understand development. These are a result of changes in the location and nature of poverty, risk, multipolarity and inequality, among others.

The location and nature of poverty, as well as our understanding of it, have changed, and today, most poor live in the middle income countries. This has had an effect on the approaches for addressing poverty, such as targeted spending and progressive taxation. Due to the increasing risk, volatility and vulnerability, there is a greater emphasis on resilience

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and ability to deal with the shocks and crises. Furthermore, the changes in the balance of power and greater emphasis on multipolarity and rise of non-state actors and private corporations are changing the way we think about global politics. Gender equality and policy frameworks focusing on role of women in development have become more prominent and some progress has been made in this area. There is a growing reaffirmation of the national, and state’s responsibility regarding management and distribution of resources, scepticism about the UN system and their ability to respond to disasters and humanitarian emergencies. Non-state armed groups have a greater role in promoting violence and state fragility, while at the same time they contribute to increasing these countries’ vulnerability to poverty. Questions of inequality and distribution are gaining on importance, and we are seeing a move from traditional methods of aid delivery. In terms of demography, we are experiencing increasing urbanisation, emergence of middle classes, youth bulge and increasing number of ageing population. With the technological advances, we are also seeing better access to information and social networking. Yet, hostile political environments are placing restrictions on advocacy and CSOs.

Due to the great number and scope of changes, the previous ways of conceiving development need to be replaced by the systems thinking, where we focus on more inter-related issues rather than one problem and its solutions, power analyses and development of resilience. Duncan Green concludes that with changes in the external trends, INGOs also need to change their role and response strategies.

Cox, B. (2011). Campaigning for international justice. Learning lessons (1991-2011). What next? (2011-2015). London: Save the Children. The report is divided in two parts: learning lessons and future trends. The first part starts with a number of case studies regarding past campaigns, including Save Darfur Campaign, TAC and Make Poverty History, and it claims that the sector hasn’t been using the best lessons from the past and replicating the past successes. It identifies the main steps campaigners should think through, by focusing on what has worked in the past. The second part of the report discusses the new challenges and opportunities. New trends and changes are making it more difficult to organise and implement successful campaigns. These changes are the changes in fiscal climate, shifting power dynamics, changing global infrastructure of aid and need for new donor approaches, change in the location of the poor, technological changes, changes in the civil society, taking on bigger challenges and move from working at global towards national levels. Changes in fiscal climate have begun with the financial and economic crisis. However, the crisis did not affect all countries in the same way, and most poor countries have felt it more

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through the decrease in aid, than internally. Although the crisis is expected to end in the 2011-2015 period, it will be difficult to advocate for funding of new targets in this fiscal context. When it comes to the shifting power dynamics, US will remain an important player, since the South-South leadership has not yet materialised and BRICS are still in the process of ceasing their political influence. There are two presumed impacts of this shift in power dynamics. The first is a reduced willingness and capacity, politically and fiscally, among traditional G8 powers to lead on development issues. The second is the opportunity of new leadership from emerging economies. The change in the balance of global power, including that from G8 to G20 has also necessitated a change in the institutional arrangements through which these powers collaborate and compete. With the shifts in power balance, global infrastructure of aid has also changed and organisations and donors need to devise new strategies and approaches. One of the most notable trends is the change in the location of the poor, as there is an increasing poverty in the middle income countries. There are three main possible responses to this shift: prioritising middle income states, keeping focus on the low income countries believing that middle income states will address its internal poverty, and spread across both. Technological developments, including access to information and internet, digitalisation of society, advocacy and campaigning, make it easier to input into decision making and to communicate with others in the world. Although this is a positive trend, it might be problematic due to overload of information and spread of inaccurate information. Changes in the civil society, resulting from financial crisis, war on terror, internet campaigns and type of funding available also need to be kept in mind. Furthermore, as the bigger global challenges, such as climate change, become more prominent, the new strategies and responses are needed to address them. Finally, as the global processes have proven less effective at delivering change, national campaigning is confirmed to be more effective. Although international campaigns and institutions still matter, the focus should be given to national efforts. Besides for the trends, there are also a number of arising opportunities which campaigning efforts can focus on. These include questions of inequality, women’s rights, social protection, zero poverty, democratisation and governance, trade and climate change. Inequality is becoming a stronger focus than poverty and work on addressing inequality includes promoting rights of specific groups, and change of economic models. When it comes to women’s rights, global movement has existed for a long time, but has been badly organised and inadequately included in the NGO work. Another campaigning opportunity,

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social protection, encompasses a wide range of mechanisms and policies, such as child grants, work guarantees, pensions, unemployment benefits and direct cash transfers. It also includes access to essential services. Addressing social protection at international level is difficult, as low income countries may not be able to afford it. There are worries from middle-income countries that international standards could be used for future economic protectionism, reducing their competitiveness and concerns about universalism, as social protection system should be locally-specific. While campaigning on the issue of zero poverty is important, the focus of these campaigns would be on developing countries only and there are poor measurements for monitoring the results. Additionally, democratisation and governance, and requests for competent, accountable governments, better rights to information, open budgeting and anti-corruption, also impact positively on development efforts. Issue of trade is another difficult goal for campaigning, as breakthroughs on trade are far away, but it has numerous advantages, since it is more sustainable route towards poverty reduction. Finally, inability to reach a global deal on climate change, pushes this issue on the political agenda. However, working on climate change in a way which will benefit the poor and ensure equitable distribution is even more of a complicated task. The campaigning efforts identify a number of moments which will be beneficial prior to 2015. These are 2012 Rio +20, 2012 London Olympics, MDG Review Summit in 2013, 2015 expiry of current MDGs and ongoing G8/G20/UNGA Summits. Each of the campaigning opportunities identified provides an area for potential progress. Taking into consideration current trends, we need to focus on the following: recent campaigns since financial crisis, working in coalitions, investing in Brazil as potential development leader, increasing focus on poor people in MICs, broadening climate change campaigns and building more effective national campaigns in middle income countries. The report forecasts that over the next ten years, the world will be better, but changing at a slower pace than since 1990, which means that the urgent areas, such as HIV, use of resources and climate change will not be addressed fast enough. The changing environment requests all actors to be involved in forecasting changes and devising response strategies. Thus, academic and business publications have also been included in this review.

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Jones, B. Wright, T., Shapiro, J. and Keane, R. (2014). The State of the International Order. Policy Paper Number 33, February 2014. Washington DC: Foreign Policy at Brookings.

The State of the International Order report examines a range of new challenges and issues in the world, and the magnitude of international cooperation since the 2008 financial crisis. It also gives attention to the extent to which the great powers and emerging countries can respond to the changing context and cooperate within it.

The authors start by defining the international order and goals for the more peaceful, prosperous and just world, with better relations between the countries, greater trade links and increased stability and security. The report then outlines the six Rorschach tests of the state of the order, including changing balance of global economy, carbon emissions and fuel imports, trade integration and military spending, trends in war, poverty, development and population and democracy and access to information technology.

In the third and final chapter, authors examine eleven characteristics of the current international order, which encompass economic, financial, security and political concerns. Firstly, global economic order remains in place, despite the crisis, but the issues with the financial and economic system are also very much present, including lack of protection against financial instability and changing economic realities. Second characteristic of the order is the stagnation of Europe, the near collapse of the Euro during the last decade and the overall weak capacity of the Union. Another important characteristic is the rise of emerging economies in the global system and the relative stagnation of the Western countries during the same period. Fourth characteristic is the declining economic capacity of the BRICS countries. The next challenge is the issue of security and competition in the world, including rivalries between China and Japan, US and China, and Eastern Europe, which might influence the current pattern of international cooperation. Sixth challenge is the issue of territorial disputes at sea. The competition exists in East and South China Sea, and there is also an issue of piracy, especially off the coast of Somalia. Seventh characteristic is the improvement of technology and its potential usage in the conflicts. Next issue is the question of human security, which has generally improved globally, but remains to be a challenge in the Middle East, and increasing risk of civil wars. Ninth characteristic is the question of responsibility to protect and its implementation, in the context of varying strategic interests. Another question is the new geopolitics of energy and new discoveries in the US, as well as changing climate. Finally, the authors argue that the US will reduce its commitment to the Gulf, and insecurity in the region will decrease.

The report concludes that although the contemporary international order is mixed, the extent of both, diplomatic and economic cooperation, between existing and emerging powers, is generally viewed as positive. The economic and financial crisis has been largely

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overcome and there are fewer conflicts. On the other hand, emerging countries might be facing their own economic crises and instabilities, which requires more commitment from the US.

World Economic Forum. (2013). Global Agenda Outlook 2014. Cologne/ Geneva: WEF.

The Global Agenda Outlook 2014 identifies ten main global trends for 2014. There are societal tensions in the Middle East and North Africa, due to political instability and high unemployment. Persistent structural unemployment and a need for regulatory structures are global concerns. Additionally, cyber threats against individuals, corporations and governments, inaction on climate change and potential threats and opportunities for innovative action arising from it, decreasing confidence in economic policies, lack or political role models and values of leadership, rise in megacities and online misinformation, have all been identified as major concerns for the year ahead. Growth of the Asian middle class, currently at 500 million, but expected to rise to 1.75 billion by 2020, has long-term effects on the environment and political stability.

Besides for global trends, report also outlines regional developments. In Asia, the main trends are continued rise of China, increasing inequality and geopolitical conflict, while in Africa, poverty, unemployment and youth unemployment are expected to mark the year. In Europe, the trends are similarly, unemployment, but also economic growth and debt/fiscal crisis. In Middle East and North Africa, political instability is projected to continue, and so is unemployment, but there is a growing focus on education. In North America, increasing inequality will persist, while unemployment and climate change will also continue to shape the context. Finally, in Latin America, increasing inequality, economic growth and education are forecasted for the near future.

Report also sets ideas for future agenda and technology, including questions regarding biotechnology, the future of shale gas, democracy, surveillance and digital intelligence, the future of Arctic and melting North and emerging multi-national corporations (MNCs).

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National intelligence Council. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Washington: National intelligence Council.

According to the National Intelligence Council, the world in 2030 will be different from the one today and this report is intended to stimulate the thinking about geopolitical changes for the next 15-20 years. The report identifies three types of trends and scenarios: mega trends and tectonic shifts, game-changers and potential worlds. The megatrends affecting the world are individual empowerment, diffusion of power, demographic patterns and food, water and energy nexus. Individual empowerment happens due to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances. Secondly, due to the shifting power to networks and coalitions, and decline of hegemony, we’ll be experiencing the diffusion of power. The changes in demographic patterns will be related to the increase in migration, and particularly urbanisation. Finally, the growing demand for resources such as food water and energy, requires not only our awareness, but preparation. Besides for megatrends, there are a number of tectonic shifts which are thought to be crucial when it comes to future changes. These include growth of global middle class, wider access to lethal and disruptive technologies, shift of economic power to the East and South, ageing population, urbanisation, food and water resources, and US energy dependence.

The report also identifies the game changers which require us to change the way in which we approach development. The crisis prone global economy and its imbalances and volatility can cause collapse, or develop greater resilience towards fiscal changes. Rapid changes and shifts are increasing the potential for intrastate and interstate conflict, and the wider regional instabilities are noted in the Middle East and South Asia. New technologies may boost economic productivity and solve problems caused by growing world population, urbanisation and climate change. Changing balance of power will require US to develop new ways of working with partners and reinventing international system, so that it can respond to new realities.

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There are additional potential issues which could have disruptive impact on the future, such as severe pandemic, rapid climate change, collapse of the Euro and the European Union, changes within China, reformed Iran, nuclear war or cyber attack, solar geomagnetic storms and US disengagement from global politics.

The third issue raised in the report concerns the potential future worlds, new actors, inequalities, risks of interstate conflict and global collaboration. Non state actors, supported by new technologies, have the potential to tackle global challenges, increasing inequalities and social tensions. The changing global political and economic shifts will require countries, particularly US and China to collaborate on global issues and find common solutions.

Goldin, I. (2013). Divided Nations: why global governance is failing and what we can do about it. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

The Divided Nations book, written by the former Vice President of the World Bank, focuses on new challenges of global governance in the 21st century, examining how to reconcile global, national and local interests. It looks at environment, medical and social sciences and gives potential solutions to future global governance issues.

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Goldin emphasises that the world today is more interconnected, which has advantages and risks, such as urbanization and technological leaps, but also challenges such as climate change, financial issues, pandemics, internet security and migration. International bodies and United Nations system are increasingly less able to deal with managing these risks. Finally, he discusses reforms of nations and knowledge structures and roles of different actors, including individuals.

Maxwell, S. (2013) Review of “Divided Nations”, 19 June 2013. Available at: http://www.simonmaxwell.eu/blog/review-of-divided-nations-why-global-governance-is-failing-and-what-we-can-do-about-it-by-ian-goldin.html Access: 15 January 2014. According to this review, the book provides a worst-case-scenario when it comes to development aid, grid-lock in global politics and issues arising from globalisation, such as financial issues, health pandemics, cyber security and climate change. It does not give overview of possible opportunities or solutions. In the last chapter, there are 5 principles for reform which Goldin, together with Ngaire Woods proposes for the future: subsidiarity, selective inclusion in decision making, variable geometry when it comes to combination of countries to address certain issues, legitimacy, representativeness and accountability of institutions, enforceability of decisions and prescribed sanctions. Besides for overview of main principles, Maxwell’s review also identifies additional points discussed in the book, such as use of transnational and professional networks, including civil society and business to create norms and expectations, and mobilisation of power via digital democracy.

Maxwell offers a different list of 8 principles for the future. These recommendations include: working in small group, developing trust-building measures from the beginning, using the same core group to keep the costs down, making it embarrassing not to cooperate, choosing the right issues, thinking about positive incentives, setting up institutions to manage these interactions and relationships and considering high costs of defection. Maxwell concludes by arguing that the book should have focused more on trust building and positive and negative incentives. When looking at the list and comparing it to real world problems, from Syrian war to climate change, Maxwell concludes that some of Goldin’s principles can be applicable, and are a useful contribution to examining future context, but the problems arise with regard to the principle of enforceability.

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Glenn, J.C., Gordon, T.J. and Florescu, E. (2012) 2012 State of the Future. Washington DC: The Millennium Project.

A book 2012 State of the Future discusses the rapid changes we are seeing in the world, both positive and negative. The world and the people are becoming richer, there is a fall in extreme poverty, we are better educated, more peaceful, better connected and live longer. But, there is also instability, rise against the abuse of power, rising food prices, water shortage, corruption, crime, environmental issues, debt and economic insecurity, climate change, and increasing gap between the rich and poor. There are resources which can be used to address these rising challenges, but there is also a limited willingness among decision makers to address them. Yet, there are still constant improvements. The report notes that the world has witnessed progress in numerous areas, including literacy, access to water, life expectancy at birth, falling poverty levels, as measured by $1.25 a day, infant mortality, number of wars, HIV prevalence, higher GDP per capita, more internet users, greater number of women in parliaments, secondary school enrolment, prevalence of undernourishment and nuclear proliferation. At the same time, we are failing to address issues such as total debt, unemployment, income inequality, ecological footprint, green house gasses emissions, terrorist attacks and voter turnout. Together with positive and negative changes, there is also stagnation when it comes to issues of corruption, freedom rights, renewable electricity, forest-covered land, expenditures for research and development, and number of physicians per capita.

Where will we be by 2030? Item 4 (full reference needed) The report looks at the changing location of world poverty and move from the low income countries to the middle income countries, as well as the conflict prone and fragile states. The numbers and power of middle income countries in the world are increasing, particularly when it comes to the African states. With the rise in middle income countries, there is a growing resource constraint, which affects the access to water, oil, nitrogen and food, with demand exceeding supply. The resource scarcity, together with population growth and climate change, increases the potential for conflict. All of these factors, climate change, inequality, development fallback and demographic shifts, influence the resources, distribution and future development trends. In order to best respond to the global trends, the report suggests that we have to focus on sustainability, engage more at the national level, due to shifting power of aid provision from external to internal, develop our expertise in conflict and fragile states, keep children on the agenda and maintain engagement on inequality.

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Kharas, H. And Rogerson, A. (2012) ODI Horizon 2025: Creative destruction in the aid industry. London: Overseas Development Institute. The ODI report discusses global changes we have been experiencing since the 2000s. Developing and emerging economies have been driving global growth during this time. New sources of development finance have mushroomed and we have seen the diversification of actors, instruments and delivery mechanisms. The location of world’s poor has changed, and it is now concentrated in the middle income and fragile and conflict areas. However, projections are that by 2025, focus on poverty will be in low income countries, mainly in African states. New calls at addressing and eliminating poverty will be targeted largely at national level institutions. In addition, there is an increasing number of new actors, institutions, business models and practices challenging the traditional actors in development, politics and economics, as well as large number of “disruptors” to the current order. The key disruptor is high-impact philanthropy and non-governmental giving channels. Philanthropy is expected to replace ODA in the future, as it is also perceived to be more effective and more responsive to contributors. It has become easier to target poor people due to new technologies and mobile money systems, which are facilitating transfers at low costs. The second disruptor is growth of South–South cooperation, combining trade and finance, and blended public–private funding in general. Aid was considered as main means for accelerating economic growth, but it is no longer the case and there is a growing focus on importance of trade, FDI and remittances. Aid is now used among the emerging economies to foster trade links and relations and there is a complex relationship between aid, investment, trade and promotion of PPP. The third disruptor relates to the protection of shared space, including climate change responses and finance and development cooperation. Climate change goal to keep global average temperature rise to below 2°C by 2035 will impact international development collaboration far more than the latter will shape climate change responses. The less progress there is by 2025 on agreed emissions reductions, the more pressure, there will be on public sector financing for climate change, including ODA. Despite changes in development financing and new appeals, most funding for climate change response by 2020 is likely to come from ODA. The changes and key disruptors will have impact on developing country governments, who will need to start mobilising national resources towards development initiatives. There will also be more diversity in terms of funding options from the outside, but these may not always be aligned with national development plans. Competition is likely between

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governments, NGOs and private sector in terms of service delivery. In general, funding for global public goods will be more supply-driven and less responsive to country circumstances and priorities. Finally, the ODI report analyses the ways in which development agencies will react to these changes. The disruptors will be a stress-test for bilateral and multilateral donors, UN system, EU, global funds and INGOs and will determine how capable the institutions are when it comes to dealing with global changes.

Oxford Martin School. (2013). Now for the Long Term. The Report of the Oxford Martin commission for Future Generations. Oxford: Oxford Martin School.

Oxford Martin School’s report consists of three parts: trends and challenges, factors and examples of positive changes, and suggestions for achieving desired goals.

First part identifies the main megatrends which will shape our global context. These include changes in demographics, mobility, society, geopolitics, health and technology. Demographic changes refer to the increasing number of people on the planet, as well as the rapidly ageing population. There is a mobility, both social and geographic, with move to the urban areas and mobility towards middle classes. In terms of society, there is a growing inequality and persistent unemployment. We are experience political and economic power transitions. Oxford Martin School report further argues that the issues of sustainability and resource scarcity, health and shifting burdens of disease, as well as information and communication revolution should be on the agenda.

Besides for megatrends, there are also numerous challenges the world will face:

1. How can society grow and develop while being more sustainable and inclusive? 2. How can resources- food, energy, water and biodiversity be made more secure? 3. How can public health infrastructure respond to the needs of all? 4. How can power transitions and new geopolitics be the basis for new forms of collaboration? 5. How can governance, including businesses, institutions and governments contribute to more inclusive and sustainable growth?

In the second part of the report, the authors examine drivers of change, including crisis, institutions, goals, leadership and campaigns which are needed to achieve positive changes.

Finally, the last part suggests principles and practical proposals for future action: building creative coalitions with multiple stakeholders, innovative and open institutions for modern environment, looking at long term, being open to participation and transparent taxation, focusing on the long term, investing in people and measuring long-term impact, investing in

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younger generations, breaking intergenerational cycle of poverty through social protection measures and addressing youth unemployment, and establishing a common platform of understanding and common vision of society and global values.

Although the literature mainly gives overview of wide range of trends, risks and uncertainties, there are also works which focus on specific trends. These include Oxfam’s reports and Milanovic’s works on inequality, UNFPA reports on demographic changes, Save the Children’s documents on changing geography of poverty and financing, and analyses of conflict and environmental changes. The following section will analyse these, more focused works.

Save the Children. (...). The Middle Income Country challenge for Save the Children. A proposal for the way forward in Latin America. London: Save the Children.

The document discusses the rise of middle income countries and the consequences this trend has for the work of Save the Children in the Latin American region, in terms of availability of resources. Donor funding for the middle income countries has been reduced, yet large number of poor people live in them, particularly in Latin America. Nine out of twenty top countries on Gini coefficient index are in Latin America, which has one of the most unequal income distributions. The rise of middle income countries forces organisations to re-think the understanding of poverty.

”We need to adapt to changing contexts and rethink aid objectives and strategies to meet this "new geography of global poverty" (Sumners, 2011)”

The focus of organisation’s work should be on the locations where poor and vulnerable children live, rather than on country’s GDP and economic growth indicators. Save the Children and other INGOs need to continue engaging in this context because middle income countries are efficient in ensuring that aid reaches poor children, and provide valuable lessons for engagement in low income countries. Involvement can also promote voice and technical capacity of local groups and culture of giving can be fostered among emerging middle classes. The report further gives overview of the current situation in the country offices across the region. According to this document, country offices are driven more by the survival instinct and past practices rather than strategy. They are focused on getting funding and thus become implementers rather than drivers of change. Organisation might have further role in advocacy, strengthening capacity of civil society and building a global culture of solidarity. The report suggests three strategies for work in Latin America. These include continuing with the current type of work and approach in Haiti, Bolivia and Nicaragua, while exiting from countries where sustainable presence can not be maintained. On the other hand, in

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countries like Peru, Ecuador and El Salvador, the organisation should maintain operations as full members. The report proposes that Save the Children should create a plan for establishing new members throughout the region and continue using both, government and private sector resources, but also finding ways of getting funding from the public. This new approach requires changes in the country offices and their greater role and responsibility in funding and technical resources. Besides for the country offices, regional offices need to have a new role in knowledge management, sharing and learning, support for humanitarian mandate, regional advocacy, networking and representation and visibility.

Save the Children. (2013). Financing the Post-2015 Agenda. A Briefing for the Intergovernmental Expert Committee on Sustainable Development Financing, august 2013. London: Save the Children.

The report discusses the crucial role of finance for sustainable development and the changes in development financing since the introduction of the MDGs. Insufficient or inadequate finance is one of the most frequently mentioned barriers to the pursuit of sustainable development. Thus, here is a need for additional investment in order to finance development.

The document then mentions the changes in development financing, traditional ODA, and potential new sources of funding, such as tax revenue, FDI and remittances. The changes in the development actors have emphasised the need for the mobilisation of domestic resources to finance the development and need for local solutions.

These changes have implications for Save the Children, which needs a robust financing plan for post-2015 era. The organisation should identify the sources of funding, a mix of taxation, stable foreign and domestic private investment, philanthropic flows and ODA, and ensure their equitable distribution. Public should be widely engaged in policy making and holding government accountable.

Save the Children’s Committee of Experts should be engaged in the development of these finance plans. They should examine the mobilisation of domestic resources, global tax justice and resource allocation, role of ODA in conflict and fragile states and low and middle income countries, raising new sources of innovative financing, including PPP and distinct role of development and climate financing.

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Save the Children (2013). Using Taxation to Improve Investment in Children Policy brief 01/03. Investment in Children: Policy Brief Series: November 2013. London: Save the Children.

The document discusses the importance of taxation and use of domestic resources as sustainable sources of revenue, in order to improve investment in children. Developing countries could raise almost additional $200 billion annually for this purpose and about $100 billion could be raised from informal sector. Tax evasion, on the other hand, results in loses of millions in low and middle income countries.

The report identifies main benefits of taxation to children, which could be summarised as 4Rs: revenue, representation, re-pricing and redistribution. Revenue is needed to finance public services to children. Tax systems often create interest groups that often advocate for their rights as tax payers, thus ensuring proper representation of all groups and their interests is necessary. Re-pricing for certain products and services, such as increasing the costs of tobacco or fossil fuels, while decreasing the price of critical products and services to children, would ensure better distribution of funds. Finally, in order to reduce inequality, taxes should be utilized in an equitable way through redistribution.

Governments’ responsibility should be to strengthen their taxation systems by ensuring that tax policy addresses inequality, transparency and accountability in taxation, through establishing international cooperation in taxation, and by finding missed taxing opportunities, either through sin taxes or luxury goods.

The report concludes by giving several recommendations regarding taxation to all actors. Donors and multilateral institutions should support strengthening the tax systems of the countries, fiscal policy, and international tax system. Governments, on the other hand, should conduct child rights impact assessments, have more open revenue collection systems, conduct cost-benefit analyses of tax policies and explore innovative and progressive taxation opportunities. Finally, private sector should fulfil their legal obligations, pay taxes fully and publish financial position in every country in which they operate.

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Naim, M. (2013). “Quick Study: Moises Naim on Power. It ain’t what it used to be.” The Economist, 28th March 2013. Available at: http://www.economist.com/blogs/prospero/2013/03/quick-study-mois%C3%A9s-na%C3%ADm-power. Access: 15 January 2014. The article discusses Naim’s new book The End of Power and the ways in which power has changed over time. Naim argues that those in power have shorter time-span in their positions, in terms of both, military, politics and business, than their predecessors. The reasons are the increasing competition, changes in business models and new technologies, and the ways in which micro-powers and weaker sides are able to constrain mega-players, such as Taliban’s high level of influence. According to Naim, since 1950s, 3 revolutions took place: “more revolution”, mobility revolution and mentality revolution. The more revolution refers to the increase in the numbers, including number of people, youth, companies, communications and money. The mobility revolution encompasses intensive and extensive movement of people, which makes governance more difficult. Mentality revolution includes cultural changes that have come about due to other global changes. There are fewer monopolies and dictatorships, and we might be in a situation where everyone has a little bit of power to block things, but no one has power to get things done.

Oxfam. (2014). Working for the few. Oxfam briefing paper 178. Oxford: Oxfam.

The first chapter of the report provides main trends and data regarding inequality, claiming that during the last 25 years, inequalities have increased. Global economic inequality divides the world in two- the richest 1%, who own half of world’s wealth, and the other 99%, who divide the other half. Europe’s richest 10 people own 217 billion Euros, while stimulus measures to address the effects of the crisis across the Union during the 2008-2010 period amounted to 200 billion Euros. The wealth of the rich is increasing, and so is the number of billionaires. Even in the previously more equal countries, such as Russia and China, the gap between rich and poor has grown.

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Such high level of inequality is not only morally questionable, but also presents a risk to human progress, serves the interests of economic elites and opens the space for the abuse of political power and non- democratic governance, including corruption and tax avoidance. Oxfam’s surveys across the world show that there is a belief that laws favour the rich. Although modern societies are based on the belief of equality of opportunity, regardless of person’s race, gender, family or any other characteristic, in reality social mobility is low. If left unaddressed, the inequality will result in the best opportunities, particularly in education, being reserved for the rich, which creates generational transfer of wealth and poverty. High inequalities increase the risk of social tensions and societal breakdown. Oxfam provides several recommendations, especially in the context of World Economic Forum in Davos, and calls the leaders at the WEF to pledge that they will not support tax havens, use wealth for political favours and undermine democracy, but will support progressive taxation, make all investments public, challenge governments to use tax revenue towards universal healthcare, education and social protection for citizens, demand living wage in all companies they own and challenge economic elites to join them in these pledges. Oxfam has also proposed a number of policies to increase the political representation of the poor and achieve greater equity. These policies include: aiming to end extreme economic inequalities in every country, ensuring stronger regulations of markets for sustainable and equitable growth and curbing the power of the rich to influence political processes and policies. Policies should be devised to best respond to particular national context. The countries which have succeeded in addressing inequality suggest that addressing financial secrecy and tax dodging, redistribution and social protection, investment in universal health and education, progressive taxation, strengthening workers’ rights and ensuring equal rights and opportunities for women, might be some of the potential choices for policy-makers.

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Milanovic, B. 2012. Global Income Inequality by the Numbers: In History and Now. An Overview. Policy Research Working Paper 6259. The World Bank.

This paper presents an overview of calculations of global inequality, and main political and philosophical implications of the findings. It focuses on winners and losers of the globalisation and last twenty years of changes between 1988 and 2008. The paper suggests that we might be seeing the first decline in global inequality since Industrial Revolution, yet the global inequality is much greater than inequality within countries. During the 1988-2008 period, the winners and losers of globalisation have been identified. Biggest increase in income per capita has been among the rich and emerging global middle class in India, China, Brazil, Indonesia and Egypt. Richest one percent of population has increased its income by 60%, while the median has increased its income by 80%. Yet, the income of the poorest 5% of population has remained the same. Former communist states and Latin America have seen stagnation in their income, and they, together with people in African countries, have been the losers of the globalisation process. Usually, inequality is understood as an issue within the borders, yet at the time of globalisation, inequality across borders is as important. There are three concepts of inequality which have emerged over the past 60 years: international inequality in per capita incomes among the countries, population-weighted between-country inequality, considering population size, and interpersonal inequality of individuals. The inequality between individuals is difficult to measure because of the lack of household surveys. The inequalities within countries refer to class and can be called “within inequalities” while the inequalities in location can be called “between inequalities”. More than 50% of one’s income depends on the average income of the country where a person lives or was born, which gives large importance to the element of location. Other factors, such as gender, parents’ education, as well as own education, play a role, but a large percentage of our income will be determined by our citizenship. Milanovic then argues that, in the light of these findings, class solidarity is dead, as there are huge differences between poor in Europe and Asia, for instance. There are three ways of addressing these inequalities: accelerating growth in poor countries, global redistribution of wealth, or migration. Accelerating growth in poor countries will take time, while the redistributive schemes are difficult to devise, as rich countries are not willing to spend much on aid. Development assistance is at $100 billion, which is only 5 times more than the bonus Goldman Sachs paid itself in one year. Third way is migration. 30% of Albanians and 80% of population of Ivory Coast live below the Italian poverty levels- if they move to Italy, they would be better off, even if they are amongst the poorest Italians. Thus, migration will become one of the main problems and opportunities of the century, as the rich world continues to close its doors and the poor world looks for ways to increase its income.

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Milanovic. 2010. The haves and have-nots. A brief and Idiosyncratic History of Global Inequality. New York: Basic Books.

Milanovic in his book summarizes the literature on inequality, and explains three understandings of the concept. He argues that 80% of one’s income is determined at birth by citizenship and parents’ income, and that little can be done to change one’s social mobility. Thus, citizenship is at the heart of global inequality. As the wealth gaps within nations have declined, inequality between nations has become more important. The poorest Danes are richer than 82% of world’s population. Due to the inequalities between nations, Milanovic argues that we no longer live in the world of class differences, but one of location-based differences.

Milanovic uses examples from novels and history, such as Pride and Prejudice and Anna Karenina in order to explain the ways in which inequalities have evolved over time. He also uses an example of Obama’s life story, by looking at three generations, in order to show how those born in the rich world have “citizenship premium”. Milanovic also proposes ways of reducing inequalities between nations, including economic growth in poor countries, greater redistribution of income through aid and migration. He argues that migration is the most effective way of reducing inequality between individuals and nations, and that barriers to migration are problematic, considering that goods, technology and ideas move freely.

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World Bank. (2011). World Development Report. Conflict Security and Development. Washington DC: IBRD/WB.

The report discusses world’s vulnerability to conflict and violence and potential strategies for dealing with it. The first part of the report focuses on challenge of conflict and repeated cycle of violence, as well as vulnerability to violence. Part 2 explores the lessons from national and international responses, by emphasising resilience, coalition-building, transforming institutions to deliver security, justice and jobs, gaining international support for transforming institution and mitigating external stresses. Part 3 gives practical options and recommendations for countries and for gaining international support.

Maintaining human and global security has always been the main goal of the policy- makers, yet insecurity, including fragility, conflict and criminal violence, has been the primary development challenge. The World Development Report asks what causes and increases the risk of violence, why is it difficult to prevent it and what leaders and their partners can do to stabilise fragile and conflict-prone areas. Violence and conflict are not once-off events, but have become repeated cycles. There are also new emerging forms of violence related to crime and insecurities. Violence affects country’s ability to develop, as no low-income fragile or conflict-affected country has yet achieved a single MDG. Those living in conflict areas are twice as likely to be undernourished or for their children to die before their 5th birthday, and three times more likely not to be able to send their children to school. On average, country which experienced violence or conflict between 1981 an 2005 has 21% higher rates of poverty than a country that did not. Conflict can also occur due to new and unpredictable challenges and risks, such as demand for food and energy, climate change and resource scarcity. These can heighten the risk of violence and conflict, especially in fragile and conflict-prone states.

“climate change can multiply natural resource–related pressures due to its potential effects on food production, water availability, energy demand, and land-use patterns (such as carbon sinks and biofuel production).”

Climate change has already had effects on availability of water and arable land. Report gives recommendations on ending conflict and violence and moving beyond fragility. The recommendations are focused on institution-building and ensuring legitimacy, as well as provision of security, justice and employment to the citizens. It is possible for these transformations to take place within one generation, however strong national leadership and international system which supports these processes and prevents violence are needed. In order to address the conflicts, diplomatic, security, development and humanitarian actors need to be involved. World Development Report gives four main recommendations in this regard for improving global response to security: provide more integrated specialized assistance for citizen security, justice and jobs, support the reform of internal institutions,

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act regionally and globally and gain support from low, middle and high income countries in order to reflect the changes in the global political environment. OCHA. (2012) World Humanitarian Data and trends in 2012. Geneva: OCHA.

OCHA document gives overview of global and country level data regarding humanitarian assistance. It intends to establish a common baseline for humanitarian data which can support humanitarian policy decisions and provide context for operational decision-making. It covers three main areas: humanitarian needs in 2011, humanitarian responses and humanitarian trends.

When it comes to humanitarian needs in 2011, the OCHA report states that UNHCR has targeted more than 100 million people during the year, yet there is still no comprehensive global picture on the crises. The second area, humanitarian response in 2011, covers the sum of actions by communities, civil society, private sector, governments, international humanitarian aid agencies, donors, diasporas and international actors. It can include material assistance such as provision of food, water, shelter and health services, as well as protecting people’s welfare and rights and promoting crisis prevention and recovery.

Finally, the last part of the report covers humanitarian trends, in terms of appeals, disasters, conflict, high and volatile food and energy prices, funding and prevention.

Appeals happen mainly in the conflict zones and natural disaster areas. Over the last decade, most funding in this area has gone to the DRC and Sudan, while the responses to natural disasters are mainly in Asia. Another trend is conflict and increasing number of refugees, mainly in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. High and volatile food and energy prices increase the food and nutrition insecurity of poor households and cost of providing humanitarian assistance. While the proportion of the population that is undernourished is falling globally, the actual number of undernourished people in sub-Saharan Africa is increasing. Funding is important factor in responses to conflict. As much as humanitarian funding, from donors and governments, is important, the crises and conflicts have also seen growth in remittances, although these are difficult to quantify. Remittances to Haiti surged after the 2010 earthquake. 10% of remittances to Somalia (estimated between US$1.3 and US$2 billion per year) are thought to be for humanitarian and development purposes. Finally, disaster prevention and investment in food aid, agriculture and basic nutrition and peace-building has been proven as more cost effective than humanitarian responses in protecting livelihoods. Yet, spending on risk reduction and disaster preparedness is only a small proportion of humanitarian aid and development assistance.

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UNESCO. (2011). Global Monitoring Report. The Hidden Crisis: Armed Conflict and Education. Paris: UNESCO.

Education For All Global Monitoring Report 2011 focuses on education within the context of armed conflict. The report reminds of the need and commitment, through the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and EFA, of ensuring peace and discusses the ways in which conflict impacts on education.

The report evaluates progress made towards EFA in six areas: early childhood care and education, universal primary education, youth and adult learning needs, improving levels of adult literacy, assessing gender parity and equality in education, and quality of education and discusses issues with financing, stating that we are not on track in reaching these goals.

Although progress has been made when it comes to gender parity, more children are in school and there is better early childhood care, large gaps are still seen between goals set in 2000 and their advances, in terms of hunger, increasing number of children out of school, dropping out, adult illiteracy, low education quality and wider inequalities.

Financing, both, domestic, and from foreign aid, is under pressure. Although the funding for education has increased in terms of commitments, donors are not meeting these targets, and more funding is now going towards higher education levels. The need for innovative sources of funding has now become more prominent than ever.

The second part of the report discusses education in armed conflict, by examining the role of conflict as a barrier to education, providing education in the armed conflict, acting upon abuses, and reconstructing education through peace and tolerance. Countries in conflict face most difficult education challenges, as violence increases the proportion of children dying under the age of 5, lowers literacy levels, increases displacement, being out of school and diverts funding towards military rather than education.

“The impact of armed conflict on education has been widely neglected. This is a hidden crisis that is reinforcing poverty, undermining economic growth and holding back the progress of nations. At the heart of the crisis are widespread and systematic human rights violations which fully deserve to be called ‘barbarous acts’”.

In order to address the issues, international action is needed in four areas: protection, provision, reconstruction and peace-building. Protection requires us to stop violations of human rights. When it comes to provision, humanitarian system needs to be changed to ensure adequate support for education. There should be better efforts at peacemaking and reconstruction. And finally, peace-building can be done through education, and this potential has not yet been fully explored.

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Pinker, S. (2011) The Better Angels of Our Nature: why Violence has Declined? London: Penguine Books. Pinker argues that violence has been declining throughout history, and that we are now experiencing the most peaceful period. He rejects the idea that human beings are violent. Decline in violence has come about with changes in cultural and material context, which made peaceful means more rational to use. He examines in detail the historical trends which have led to the decline of violence. These include pacification process, from anarchy to agricultural societies, about 5000 years ago, the civilizing process, between middle ages and 20th century, which saw a decrease in homicides, the humanitarian revolution in the 17th and 18th century, with the movement for abolition of slavery, torture and superstitious killings, the long peace, since the end of the Second World War, when the great powers stopped waging war on one another, the new peace, since the end of the Cold War, as the organised conflict, such as wars, genocide, repression and terrorist attacks have declined, and finally, the Rights Revolutions, and opposition to aggression towards ethnic minorities, women, children and homosexuals. Pinker further identifies “inner demons” which are psychological systems which could lead us to the acts of violence. He rejects the idea that anger and aggression are single motives, but argues instead that violence is a result of complex interaction of several psychological systems. The motives are: predatory or instrumental violence, as practical means to an end, urge for dominance, revenge, or urge towards retribution, justice and punishment, sadism and ideology, or shared belief system that justifies violence in the pursuit of unlimited good. On the other hand, human beings can be deterred from violence through four characteristics: empathy, self-control, moral sense and reason. In his final chapter, Pinker discusses why peaceful means have become favoured. He identifies five factors: rise of modern nation-state and judiciary, rise of technological progress and trade, increasing respect for the value of women, cosmopolitanism and rise of forces such as literacy, mobility and mass media, and “escalator of reason”, or application of knowledge and rationality to human affairs.

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Fearon, J. (2008), ‘The Rise of Emergency Aid’, in Barnett and Weiss (eds), Humanitarianism in Question: Politics, Power and Ethics, New York: Cornell University Press.

Fearon analyses the patters of emergency aid over time. Humanitarian aid is different from development aid. Humanitarian aid is given in emergency and emergency can be defined as “an urgent situation created by an abnormal event which a government cannot meet out of its own resources and which results in human suffering and/or loss of crops or livestock”. Emergency can occur as a result of natural or man-made disasters of food scarcity due to crop failure or draughts. Emergencies are sudden, and usually involve loss of livelihood and lives.

Between 1945 and 1990s, developing countries have experienced increase in warfare, which resulted in the rising number of refugees, from about 3 million in 1975 to 18 million in 1991. Since 1991, there has been a steady decline in the number of refugees to about 9 million in 2005. On the other hand, emergency aid has been increasing since the 1980s, leaping upwards in 1990s, and has continued increasing over the last 15 years, in spite of the drop in the number of refugees.

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The trend can be explained by the potential increasing number of IDPs, or humanitarian agencies’ ability to convince donors into this increase, changes in foreign policy after the Cold War, or increases in natural disasters. Humanitarian aid has been highly concentrated in the countries which have suffered high-profile conflicts, or been bombed or invaded by the US in the pursuit of regime change, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq and Afghanistan. It is linked with post-cold war foreign policy objectives. Increasing number of natural disasters might have increased the number of displaced people, but not refugees.

Themnér, L. and Wallensteen, P. “Armed Conflicts, 1946-2011”, Journal of Peace Research, 10 July 2012. Volume 1 (11).

Uppsala Conflict Data Program studies the conflicts around the world. In 2011, it recorded 37 armed conflicts, which was an increase from 31 conflicts in 2010, and a return to the 2008 level. Only one peace agreement was signed during the year. Yet, these statistics are still much lower than during the peek in the early 1990s, when the world witnessed more than 50 active conflicts.

Number of armed conflict by type 1946-2011

Although there is an increase in conflicts in the last two years, Themner and Wallensteen argue that the general trend is that of stability. Despite of the conflicts in the 1990s, post-Cold War period has been marked by the internationally driven peace processes and agreements.

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UNEP. (2012). The Global Environmental Outlook (5) Environment for the future we Want. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP): Nairobi, Kenya.

Goal of the report is to keep governments and stakeholders informed about global environmental trends. Currently, there are efforts to achieve universal human well-being and environmental sustainability at the same time, but the problem arises when it comes to the use of resources and environmental damage. The GEO-5 in-depth report outlines several environmental trends and drivers of environmental change, including socio-economic forces. Drivers of change, such as population dynamics, transport, economic demands and unsustainable consumption and production patterns impact on the environment and increase emissions of the pollutants and wastes, which has pressures on both, humans and ecosystems. The remainder of the first part of the report evaluates whether internationally agreed goals in terms of atmosphere, land, water, biodiversity, chemicals and waste are being met. There are changes in each of these aspects driven by climate change and human-ecosystem interaction. Due to these changes, there is an urgent need to address the underlying drivers of the human pressures on the Earth System. At the same time, it is necessary to adopt approaches that can deal better with the complexities and inherent uncertainties of the Earth System. This must include three elements: basic research to understand interactions and feedbacks; sustained long-term monitoring and observation to underpin basic research; and regular evaluation of progress to allow the adjustment of responses when observations indicate that this is necessary. Strengthening collection, analysis and interpretation of data relevant to tracking state and trends of environment, is needed for both, scientific evaluation and policy making. The second part of the report outlines policy options based on geographical regions. Policy appraisal was conducted to identify environmental priority challenges in each area. Regions have selected different priority areas, with Europe focusing on air pollution, while West Asia and North America identifying energy as their main concern. The selection of freshwater, climate change and environmental governance as priorities by all regions suggests recognition that these issues have reached a point of global importance requiring responses that could have relevance worldwide. Finally, third part gives scenarios and needs for global responses and potential actions at the global level. The report suggests two futures: business as usual and alternative approaches future, and the difference is in deep transformation which takes place through the alternative approach. The vision for 2050 proposes climate change, governance, people living within planetary limits and no instability and conflict over resources. It identifies ambitious goals and targets for each of the themes discussed in part one, including atmosphere, water, land and biodiversity, among others.

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The envisioned sustainable world aims simultaneously to achieve universal human well-being and environmental sustainability at global, national, regional and local levels. The vision assumes that, by 2050, all people have access to food, safe drinking water, improved sanitation and modern sources of energy, all within the ecological limits of the planet. Transformation towards this vision requires gradual transition process, political determination and strong governance.

Guha- Sapir, D., Hoyois, P. And Below, R. (2013). Annual Disaster statistical Review. The numbers and trends. Brussels: Université catholique de Louvain.

The Review defines disaster as “a situation or event which overwhelms local capacity, necessitating a request to a national or international level for external assistance; an unforeseen and often sudden event that causes great damage, destruction and human suffering”. There are natural and technological disasters. Natural disasters are classified as meteorological, geophysical, hydrological, climatological and biological. The report also gives main trends of 2012 and discusses geographical coverage and distribution of crisis.

The authors indicate that during 2012, 357 natural disasters took place, which was a decrease from the 2002-2011 average (394). However, in spite of the lower statistics than the 2002-2011 average, disasters still took 9,655 lives and 124.5 million people became victims. Economic damage, on the other hand has increased, with costs of $157 billion. 53% of victims were from floods, 27% from droughts and 16% from storms.

Countries most hit by disasters have been China, India, Indonesia, USA and the Philippines. Out of ten countries with highest disaster mortality, six are classified as low-income, or lower-middle income states. Asia was the continent most affected by natural disasters, experiencing 40.7% of global burden.

FAO. (2011). The State of Food Insecurity in the world. Recent trends in world food commodity prices: costs and benefits. Past and future trends in world food prices. Rome: FAO.

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Report by Food and Agricultural Organisation on recent trends indicates that high and volatile prices will continue to be a trend, due to the increasing demand and continuing population growth. Furthermore, the stronger links between agricultural and energy markets, and the demands for the biofuels will put greater pressures on the food systems. In some regions, there is a scarcity of natural resources, and declining yield growth. However, the sudden price increase between 2006 and 2008 caused concerns over world’s ability to produce enough food for everyone. The factors which have been influencing the increase since 2003 are weather shocks, policies promoting the use of biofuels, which increased the demand for maize, depreciation of the US dollar, longer term economic growth in large developing countries which increased the prices for petroleum and fertilizers and increased the demand for meat and animal feeds, rising production costs, slower growth of cereal yields, trade policies, export bans and aggressive buying by governments.

The decline of prices in 2008 raised hopes of stabilisation, but in 2010, the prices surged again, renewing concerns regarding this volatility. It is expected that prices will rise because of increasing population numbers and economic growth, as well as oil prices. Furthermore, environmental shocks and limited availability of land and water put pressure on prices.

High food prices tend to worsen poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition, as the poorest segments of population usually need to buy more food than they can produce or sell. Even short-term shocks have long-term effects on smallholders farmers and the poor

Global Food Security. 2013. “Future trends.” Available at: http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/future.html. Access: 21 January 2014.

The Global Food Security identifies several future trends in the areas of population, production and consumption, investments, environment and water. World’s population is expected to reach 9 billion by 20150, 90% of the growth will take place in the developing countries. This will impact on scarcity of water and food, especially as the population along the banks of the Nile is expected to double to 300 million by 2025. By 2040, 70% of world population will live in urban areas.

Obesity is expected to increase. It is estimated that 1 billion people are already overweight, and 300 million are obese. It will increase in industrialised countries, with the increase of the GDP. Poverty and consumption of cheap, carbohydrate-rich foods is also responsible for weight gain and diabetes. The food production needs to increase in order to meet the rising demand, especially in developing countries. The World Bank estimates that cereal production should increase by 50% and meat production by 85% by 2030, in order to meet the increasing demand. Increase the food production, would require increasing investment in agriculture in developing countries, which would cost about 83 billion annually. Climate change is expected to affect southern hemisphere more harshly than the northern.

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Almost three-quarter of the world’s water is used for irrigation and agriculture, and demands for this resource will increase between 50-100% by 2025. In Africa, a quarter population is already in water stress and 2.8 billion globally live in these conditions. Political disagreements over water access will lead to military conflicts. The potential areas of tension include Mekong Delta (China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam), Bangladesh and India, Turkey, Syria and Iraq, Israel, Syria, Jordan and Palestine, and Zambezi basin.

UNFPA (2011). State of World Population: People and possibilities in a world of 7 billion. New York: UNFPA.

2011 report looks at increasing world population and trends defining the new demographic context. It is based on the field research in China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Finland, India, Mexico, Mozambique, Nigeria and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. New demographic trends identified in the report are: half of population living in cities, large number of ageing population over 60 and 43% of population being youth, under the age of 25. This report then explores some of these trends, including youth, ageing populations and migration, but also the interrelationship among fertility patterns, reproductive health services, gender and the rights of women and girls, the management of vast urban areas and environmental strains. The more young people there are in the country, the greater the development potential, but there is also a need to prepare large job market for them. The new trends are that young people are having smaller families and entering marriage later in life. However, there are still instances of child marriage globally, but these usually occur in particular cultural or poor education contexts. Sexual education is not available to many of the young people.

The larger number of ageing population is a trend present in all countries, and as the current youth moves to working age and later on, the ageing population will rapidly increase, which has economic and social consequences and presents a policy challenge. Ageing population is facing various health challenges and requires access to health and social services.

Another issue explored in the report is fertility, in terms of number of children a women has. It is used not only to determine the population growth or decline, but also to measure quality of women’s lives. This indicator is linked with family size, total population, health, education, equality, economic opportunities and women’s rights to make decisions about children. Reduction in fertility usually accelerates economic growth and reduces poverty. Tradition, gender inequality, a belief that large families are a sign of wealth and misconceptions about modern contraceptives, discourage many women and men from taking advantage of family planning services. In certain contexts, women also have a little say in the decisions about having children, and there is also a strong preference for boys. In cases of infertility, males count for 50% of failure to conceive, yet women are usually disproportionately blamed.

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Another trend included in the report is migration. The Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates that in today’s world of 7 billion people at least 214 million are living outside their countries of birth. An unknown number move around inside their countries. In spite of risks of migration, people choose to move, and are vulnerable to traffickers and smugglers. Remittances which migrants send home are one of the main sources of livelihood and economic development for the countries. Urbanisation and growth of megacities, but also smaller cities call for planning of urban areas. Urbanisation can provide opportunities in terms of jobs, access of education and CSOs for women. Although the economic growth over the past two decades has been remarkable, it has come at a cost in terms of resources. From climate change, to the loss of biodiversity, and from rising land degradation to increasing scarcity of freshwaters, environmental change is translating into escalating social and economic impacts and scarcities. The most concerning are climate change and limited access to water supplies. The report concludes by emphasising the continued need to examine the trends and challenges of the population growth, in both low income and middle and high income countries.

UNFPA. (2009). State of the World Population: Facing a changing world: women, population and climate. New York: UNFPA. The report discusses ways in which population dynamics affect greenhouse emissions and climate change, which are a result of human activity, and the ways in which urbanisation and ageing population affect global warming. People are changing the climate through their actions, and also climate change affects the way people need to behave and adapt to these changes. Our effect on climate is linked with energy we use and produce, what we consume, whether we live in urban or rural area, rich or poor country, whether we are young or old, what we eat and our consumption patterns. The report discusses what happens during climate change and its effects on poverty, women, migration, health, agriculture, mobilising government and individuals. Climate change also affects people through migration, destruction of livelihoods, disrupting economies and undermining development. The global warming, and resulting changes to land, water and atmosphere, have effects on livelihoods, health and migration, and also affect negatively women, due to their role in food production and deep gender inequalities. Due to the fast changing environment and the effects of greenhouses gases on nature and migration of people, there is a need to ensure adaptation and development of resilience plans. Resilience is most likely to be developed in societies with good education records and strong economies, which will leave out once again the poor. Additional trends which will be

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exacerbated by the climate change are: conflict, rising sea levels, urbanisation, spread of diseases, food insecurity and health risks. The report also gives 5 steps for action to reverse the change and its effects:

bring a better understanding of population dynamics, gender and reproductive health to climate change and environmental discussions at all levels;

fully fund family planning services and contraceptives; prioritize research and data collection to improve gender and population dynamics in

climate change mitigation and adaptation; improve sex-disaggregation of data related to migration flows influenced by environmental

factors; and integrate gender considerations into global efforts to adapt to climate change.

UNFPA (2007). The UNFPA state of the world population reports: unleashing the potential of urban growth. New York: UNFPA

Since 2008, more than half of world’s population has been living in cities. In the next decades, urban growth will be most notable in Africa and Asia. Scale, size and speed of urbanisation are all increasing. Over the past 30 years, two trends have been notable: speed of urbanisation in developing countries and rise of mega cities. Smaller cities (under 500 000) account for half of urban population growth in the period between 2005 and 2015.

Policy- makers have responded differently to the urbanisation. Usually, there is a reluctance to accept the new migrants, as rural poverty is less visible and rural populations are less likely to organise and mobilise against discriminatory policies. Although urban centres are characterised by the deteriorating social and economic conditions and accommodation problems, people choose to move because of increasing opportunities in terms of education, access to jobs, access to health and property ownership, especially for women. However, in reality, access to health and skilled birth attendants in urban areas is very low, and women also suffer from gender based violence. Urban context also increases the risk of HIV infections, although research suggests that it might curb the new infections in the long term.

The cities are changing in demographics and are now largely populated by youth. It is estimated that by 2030, 60% of urban dwellers will be under the age of 18. There is a concern regarding growing number of orphans and street children in the urban areas, as they lack the support of extended families, which they would have in rural settings. Need for education and skills in the urban areas is largely unmet, and children's participation in the decision making is limited. Besides for the changes in demographics involving youth, ageing is also a global trend, and ageing population in urban areas will need access to health facilities and social services. The main concerns regarding the rapid urbanisation are the need to increase the capacity and competence of authorities for urban development, safeguarding environment and

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responding to needs of all citizens for infrastructure, safety and services, overcrowding, health and social issues. Considering the scale and scope of urbanisation, policy action regarding the urban poor and urbanisation in general is needed as soon as possible. The report recommends several policy initiatives which would be useful for urbanisation:

1. Need to respect the rights of the poor to move to the cities. Attempts to curb migration to cities by denying good living conditions and services are futile. Authorities need to respect human rights and ensure advances in social development.

2. Cities need a long term and broader vision on the use of urban space to promote sustainability and ensure provision of land for the poor, while at the same time protecting the environment.

3. Need to support community organisations, social movements, governments and international community in improving the nature and form or urban expansion. Urbanisation provides opportunities for poverty reduction, gender inequality and sustainable development, but without the government strategy to take advantage of the opportunities, increasing number of poor in urban areas will result in increase in slums and deteriorating living conditions, as well as unsustainable use of resources. Without a strategy for urban governance, ecological and environmental damage is likely to continue.

OECD. (2013). International Migration Outlook 2013. Paris: OECD Publishing.

The first chapter of the report provides an overview of migration flows and migration policies. The second chapter takes a look at impact of economic crisis on employment situation of immigrants. Chapter 3 discusses fiscal impact of immigration in OECD countries, while chapter 4 discusses discrimination immigrants and their children face in OECD. Chapter 5 gives country-by-country statistics on developments regarding migration and policies in the OECD countries.

High unemployment in OECD states has increased the debates about immigration and the extent to which migrants use benefits. The study shows that 50% of people believe that immigrants use more services that they pay in taxes. However, the results indicate that although highly skilled workers find it easier to migrate, unskilled workers also contribute to economy, and fare better than local skilled workers. Factors such as age of immigrants also affect the extent to which they contribute to the system. The younger the immigrants, the more positive impact they make on fiscal redistribution. In cases when immigrants contribute less, it is because of their lower wages and not because of the higher use of social services.

Although the migration flows in OECD are increasing, they are still below the pre-crisis levels. Greatest migration is from India, China, Poland and Romania, and recipient countries are US, France, Germany and Italy. In 2011, immigrants have comprised 12.5% of population in OECD countries. Between 2009 and 2011, there is a 45% increase in migration from

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southern European countries. In 2011, there were over 400 000 requests for asylum, mostly from the Arab countries.

Immigration accounts for 40% of population growth in OECD countries in the period between 2001 and 2011. Permanent migration has been constant, at 2%, or just below 4 million. Furthermore, number of international students in OECD is constantly increasing, and has grown by 20% in the period between 2004 and 2009. In 2010, the number of international students stands at 2.6 million. International study is the first step towards eventual migration, with 15-30% of graduates staying in the country where they studied.

Labour market integration of immigrants is proven to mitigate social pressures and improve their economic performance. On the other hand, discrimination against migrants is a key obstacle to immigrants and can damage social cohesion in the society and negatively affects the investments made in education. Discrimination is difficult to measure, and its biggest impact is felt during the hiring process. Studies show that immigrants need to send double the job applications than the native-born in order to get an interview. Immigrants are also more affected than native born by rising unemployment. The immigrant unemployment in OECD has risen from 8.1% in 2008 to 12.9% in 2012. Most affected are the migrants from North Africa and Latin America.

During the last decade, countries have changed their migration policies, due to the increase in migration and changing political environment. UK, Switzerland and Australia have increased the restrictions and requirements, as did the southern and eastern European states. Germany, Hungary and Slovak Republic have adopted regulations to bring in more skilled labour. Point-based systems have been adopted by a number of countries, including Austria, UK, Netherlands, Japan and Korea. Korea and Italy have also changed regulations for temporary and seasonal labour.

West, A., Karkara, N., Stuckenbruck, D., Sterky, L. And Ceccheti, R.

(2012). City Kids- Urbanisation and its consequences for children’s right to be

protected from abuse, neglect, exploitation and violence. Stockholm: Save

the Children.

Throughout the majority of the Save the Children literature on child protection, there is a

primary focus on what is referred to as “children on the move”, and the challenges this

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presents in being able to provide an adequate framework that protects children who have

either been displaced, or are the subject of abuse at home and/or in their communities.

Implicit in this is the growing trend towards urbanisation, and so this paper focuses on

urbanisation in isolation from other forms of movement and seeks to address how it can

have an adverse affect on child protection and what can be done to remedy this.

The paper examines social, economic and environmental trends towards urbanisation. Over

half of the world’s population, including a billion children now live in urban areas. Whilst

urbanisation is sometimes seen as beneficial, as it can promote economic growth, lower

fertility rates and lead to a higher quality of life and environmental sustainability, it is also

viewed as an emerging humanitarian disaster because an increasing proportion of the global

population are living in urban slums, and are at risk of climate change problems resulting

from extreme weather and rising sea levels. It is estimated that by 2030, 60 per cent of

urban dwellers will be children. Urbanisation is also associated with inequalities, poverty,

slums, increased interpersonal violence, and the break-up of extended families and

traditional based child protection mechanisms.

Problems are further exacerbated by the fact that international migrants who often make

up some of the most vulnerable in society tend to settle in urban areas where children in

particular are not only at risk of abuse such as child labour, child trafficking and sexual

exploitation but in many cases are already victims of circumstance having been forced to

flee their native countries with or without parents as a result of disaster and conflict or a

lack of appropriate care.

Despite the clear problems presented by urbanisation the authors note that, “to date child

protection has been largely missing from development priorities, and from the migration and

urbanisation agenda”.

The paper then goes on to identify the different forms of abuses and problem areas,

including children living and working on the street and other forms of child work, gang

violence, emergency and conflict situations and urban poverty.

Due to high levels of unemployment many children are under pressure to take exploitative

work, especially in urban areas were livelihood for families is a big concern. According to

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the International Labour Organisation, 115 million children are in hazardous work situations.

Children need safe, non exploitative employment and education. In order to address the

issues, in Bangladesh, an innovative project has been developed in three urban areas aiming

to reach over 70 000 working children. The project establishes a system whereby employers,

local government authorities and civil society all agree to take responsibility for creating a

safe and protective work environment for children, and to keep each other accountable for

any lapses in safety standards for children.

Crime and violence affect children, either through their participation, or witnessing

muggings, assaults, communal conflict and murder. In Colombia, Save the Children’s project

aims to prevent forced recruitment of children by armed groups and provides technical

assistance to government staff to develop and strengthen protections systems in an

environment with limited resources; to interpret and put into practice child protection

policies; and to develop strategies to prevent violence and forced recruitment of children.

In conflict and emergency situations, internally displaced children and their families may

find themselves without livelihood and access to protection, education and other services.

In Libya, Save the Children is providing skill=-building in IDP camps for youth and children

and organising safe spaces.

Urban poverty and unemployment increase the alcohol abuse and domestic violence, and

increase children’s chances to be placed in orphanages, which results in them being

neglected and often abused. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Save the Children has piloted a

drop in centre for the children living on the streets and those at risk of being separated from

family because of poverty. The centre conducts outreach activities through social workers

and provides financial and shelter assistance. After the end of the project, local authorities

have continued funding the centre.

Save the Children aims to focus on all aspects of urbanisation, include human-rights

framework and strengthening child protection systems in urban programming, safe

migration and new technologies, family support and putting children at the centre of urban

planning.

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3. Conclusion

The changing international environment impacts on the work of development organisations, and has particular effects on the work with children, as they are more vulnerable to the shocks and changes. This literature review provides an overview of main global trends and developments which will mark the next decade. The review includes Save the Children’s publications, but also the work of other INGOs and development agencies, as well as academic publications.

The main changes in the environment refer to political, economic, social and environmental changes, including rise of middle income countries and changing power balance, increasing global inequality, changes in demographics, including both expanding population, but also their increased mobility to urban areas, and across borders, improvements in technology, and risks of conflict, climate change and natural disasters.

All these changes impact on the work of INGOs not only in terms of their need to respond to the new challenges, but also in terms of their need to adapt to different ways of working, collaborating with new range of partners, and finding innovative means of financing. In the light of new developments, Save the Children needs to be aware of these emerging trends, prepare for the changes and build resilience and its responsiveness for the shocks and uncertainties.

Recommended further reading

FAO. (2013). FAO statistical yearbook 2013: World food and agriculture. Rome: FAO.

Fanjul, G. (2013 forthcoming paper) European Migration CDI Paper.

Green, D. What’s changed in development 2007-2012, ppt.

Lakner, C. And Milanovic, B. (2013). Global income distribution: from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession. Policy Research Working Paper no. WPS 6719. Washington DC: World Bank.

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Milanovic,B. 2011. Global income inequality: the past two centuries and implications for 21st century. Power point presentation

OECD Center for Educational Research and Innovation (2013). Trends Shaping Education. Paris: OECD.

OECD (2012). Outlook 2050: The consequences of Inaction. Paris: OECD.

Save the Children. (2013). Middle Income countries: Programming challenges and opportunities. London: Save the Children.

Shirky, C. 2011. “The Political Power of Social Media”. Foreign Affairs, Issue 90, January/ Febraury 2011.

The WorldWatch Institute (2012). Vital Signs. The trends that are shaping our future. The WorldWatch Institute: Washington DC.

UNCCD. (2013). Desertification and water. UNCCD Thematic Fact Sheet Series, Number 2. Bonn: UNCCD.

UNEP. (2011). Keeping Track of Our changing environment. From Rio to Rio+ 20 (1992-2012). UNEP: Nairobi

UNHCR. (2012). UNHCR global trends 2012: displacement the new 21st century challenge. Geneva: UNHCR.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2012). “World Population Prospects. The 2012 Revision.” Available at: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2012-revision.html Access: 27 December 2013.

United Nations Population Division. (2013). Population, Development and Environment. New York: United Nations.

References

Cox, B. (2011). Campaigning for international justice. Learning lessons (1991-2011). What next? (2011-2015). London: Save the Children.

Evans, A, (2011). 2020 Development Futures. London: Action Aid.

FAO. (2011). The State of Food insecurity in the world. Recent trends in world food commodity prices: costs and benefits. Past and future trends in world food prices. Rome: FAO

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Fearon, J. (2008), ‘The Rise of Emergency Aid’, in Barnett and Weiss (eds), Humanitarianism in Question: Politics, Power and Ethics. New York: Cornell University Press

Glenn, J.C., Gordon, T.J. and Florescu, E. (2012) 2012 State of the Future. Washington DC: The Millennium Project.

Global Food Security. (2013). “Future trends.” Available at: http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/future.html. Access: 21 January 2014.

Green, D. (2012). The changing external context. OISP 2012-2016. Oxford: Oxfam.

Guha- Sapir, D., Hoyois, P. And Below, R. Annual Disaster statistical Review. The numbers and trends. Université catholique de Louvain – Brussels.

Goldin, I. 2013: Divided Nations: why global governance is failing and what we can do about it. Oxford: Oxford University Press/

Kharas, H. And Rogerson, A. (2012). ODI Horizon 2025: Creative destruction in the aid industry. London: Overseas Development Institute.

Maxwell, S. (2013). Review of “Divided Nations”, 19 June 2013, Available at: http://www.simonmaxwell.eu/blog/review-of-divided-nations-why-global-governance-is-failing-and-what-we-can-do-about-it-by-ian-goldin.html Access: 15 January 2014.

Milanovic, B. 2012. Global Income Inequality by the Numbers: In History and Now. An Overview. Policy Research Working Paper 6259. Washington DC: The World Bank.

Milanovic. 2010. The haves and have nots. A brief and Idiosyncratic History of Global Inequality. New York: Basic Books.

Naim, M. (2013). “Quick Study: Moises Naim on Power. It ain’t what it used to be.” The Economist, 28th March 2013. Available at: http://www.economist.com/blogs/prospero/2013/03/quick-study-mois%C3%A9s-na%C3%ADm-power Access: 15 January 2014.

National intelligence Council. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Washington: National intelligence Council.

OCHA (2012). World Humanitarian Data and trends in 2012. OCHA: Geneva (2012)

OECD. (2013). International Migration Outlook 2013. Paris: OECD Publishing

Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Violence against Children (2013). Toward a world free from violence: Global Survey on Violence against children. New York: Unicef.

Oxfam. (2014). Working for the few. Oxfam briefing paper 178. Oxford: Oxfam.

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Oxford Martin School. (2013). Now for the Long Term. The Report of the Oxford Martin commission for Future Generations. Oxford: Oxford Martin School.

Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature: why Violence has Declined? London: Penguine Books.

Renberg, G. (2011). What is going on? Global context analysis 2011 for Save the Children Sweden. Stockholm: Save the Children.

Save the Children, (2013). Financing the Post-2015 Agenda. A Briefing for the Intergovernmental Expert Committee on Sustainable Development Financing, August 2013. London: Save the Children UK.

Save the children. (2013). Using Taxation to Improve Investment in Children Policy brief 01/03. Child Rights Governance Global Initiative Investment in Children: Policy Brief Series: November 2013. London: Save the Children.

Save the children. (2013). MTSR Considerations on External Trends Challenging trends, emerging roles and strategic considerations (PDF – PPT) (SC) 18 April 2013. London: Save the Children.

Save the Children. (2013). A 2025 social fiction: Megatrends & possible implications for Save the Children Looking 10-15 years ahead to start the planning now. London: Save the Children.

Save the Children. (2013). Key trends in Asia. Child Protection Initiative. Asia Child Protection Technical Advisors Meeting. London: Save the Children.

Save the Children. (2013). Emerging global and Asian issues, their impact on the work of development organisations in general and Save the Children in particular. Annual Review and Reflection meeting. London: Save the Children.

Save the Children. (...). The Middle Income Country challenge for Save the Children. A proposal for the way forward in Latin America. London: Save the Children

Save the Children. (2009). Drivers for Change Annex to current Save the Children strategy (2010-2015). London: save the Children.

Themnér, L. and Wallensteen, P. (2012). ‘Armed Conflicts, 1946- 2011’, Journal of Peace Research, 10 July 2012. Volume 1 (11)

Trocaire. (2011). Leading edge 2020: Critical thinking on the future of international development. The Catholic Agency for World Development: Maynooth, Ireland.

UNEP. (2012). The Global Environmental Outlook (5) Environment for the future we Want. United Nations environment Programme (UNEP): Nairobi, Kenya.

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UNESCO (2011).The Hidden Crisis: Armed Conflict and Education. GMR 2011. Paris: UNESCO.

UNFPA (2011). State of World Population: People and possibilities in a world of 7 billion. New York: UNFPA.

UNFPA. (2009). State of the World Population: Facing a changing world: women, population and climate. New York: UNFPA.

UNFPA. (2007). The UNFPA state of the world population reports: unleashing the potential of urban growth. New York: UNFPA.

West, A., Karkara, N., Stuckenbruck, D., Sterky, L. and Ceccheti, R. (2012). City Kids- Urbanisation and its consequences for children’s right to be protected from abuse, neglect, exploitation and violence. Stockholm: Save the Children.

World Bank. (2011). World Development Report. Conflict Security and Development. Washington: IBRD/WB.

World Economic Forum (2013). Global Agenda Outlook 2014. Cologne/ Geneva: WEF.

National intelligence council. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Washington: National Intelligence Council..

Where will we be by 2030? Item 4

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Appendix 4: Save the Children’s Global Initiative (Annotated literature review)

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Child Rights and Wellbeing Save the Children’s Themes

Annotated literature review

Authors: Lana Pasic & José Manuel Roche3

March 2014

3 We thank contributions from Georgina Kenlock in the section on Child Rights.

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CONTENTS

Abstract

List of Acronyms

1. Introduction

2. Themes

2.1 Education

2.2 Health

2.3 Child Rights Governance

2.4 Child Protection

3. Conclusion

References

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Abstract

Save the Children’s work within the area of child rights and wellbeing focuses on four main themes: education, health, child rights governance and child protection. This literature review gives an overview of main publications by Save the Children, but also other organisations and agencies, and explores the various fields of work within each of the area.

The review concludes that, due to the large variety of contexts within countries, and diverse priorities within education, health, child rights governance and child protection, INGOs and other stakeholders need to be able to work on improving children’s lives and opportunities, while keeping in mind the risks and challenges of the changing environment.

Acronyms

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CPI Child Protection initiative

CRG Child Rights Governance

CSOs Civil Society Organisations

ECCD Early Childhood Care and Development

EFA Education For All

EU European Union

HIV Human Immunodeficiency Syndrome

HRC Human Rights Council

IDPs Internally Displaced Population

ILO International Labour Organisation

INGOs International Nongovernmental Organisations

LICs Low Income Countries

MICs Middle Income Countries

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MNCs Multinational Companies

ODA Overseas Development Assistance

OOPS Out of Pocket Spending

UHC Universal Health Coverage

UN United Nations

UNCRC United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child

UPR Universal Periodic Review

3. Introduction

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The work of Save the Children in the area of child rights and wellbeing focuses on four main themes: education, health, child rights governance and child protection. Each of the topics covers important issues such as access to schools and quality of education, skill development, malnutrition, universal health coverage, immunisation, strengthening institutions and accountability and child participation. A literature review on these topics was conducted with the goal of examining main trends and developments within these thematic areas. The review focuses on Save the Children documents, but it also examines other publications. The review of the themes should be seen in the light of new and emerging global trends, changing world and unexpected shocks and volatilities, but also in the context of the need for long-term planning, flexibility and resilience.

2. Main themes

This section identifies main themes when it comes to child rights and wellbeing: education, health, child rights governance and child protection. Prior to the examination of specific themes, Unicef’s State of the World’s Children is reviewed, as it gives an overview of main advances and challenges when it comes to working with children.

UNICEF. 2014. The State of the World’s Children 2014: Every Child Counts. Unicef: New York.

Although important advances have been made to the lives of children, in 2012, 18,000 children died daily, almost 230 million children under 5 have never been registered, 31 million of girls were out of school in 2011 and millions still experience violence, neglect and abuse. State of the World’s Children 2014 in Numbers gives overview of the main trends and data important for children’s wellbeing. The indicators which report looks at are stunting/wasting/underweight, use of insecticide- treated nets, violent discipline, use of improved water sources and sanitary facilities, birth registration, immunization coverage, exclusive breastfeeding, care for pneumonia and diarrhoea, comprehensive knowledge of HIV, having a skilled attendant at birth, primary and secondary school enrolment, youth and adult literacy rates, use of mass media and adolescent pregnancy. Poorest children have three times less chances of having a skilled birth attendant at their delivery. In Niger, 39% of rural households have access to safe drinking water. 4% of the poorest Tanzanians are registered at birth, compared with 56% of the richest. In Chad, for every 100 boys in secondary school, there are 44 girls. These disparities indicate what large barriers stand in the way of children’s development. The report emphasises the importance of data for informing decisions and policies and obtaining necessary resources. In 2010 in the DRC, it was found that only 28% of births were

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registered and that this resulted in denial of many other rights. Unicef worked with communities and other stakeholders in order to increase the registration, which brought results in less than a year. Data also shows that progress has been made during the past decades. Additional 90 million children have lived past the age of 5. Deaths from measles fell from 482,000 in 2000 to 86,000 in 2012, thanks to immunization. Stunting has dropped by 37% due to improvements in nutrition. Primary school enrolment has increased even in the least developed countries, from 53% to 81% between 1990 and 2011. Besides for witnessing positive trends, the data also points to the violations of children’s rights. In 2012, 6.6. million children died before turning 5. 15% of children engage in child labour. 11% of girls are married before they turn 15.

3.1 Education

Education is one of the most important areas when it comes to improving the wellbeing and rights of children. It is an end in itself, but it is also an instrument for improving the wellbeing of children and is beneficial for their social and economic situation later in life.

Save the Children. (2013). Ending the hidden exclusion. Learning and equity in education post-2015. London: Save the Children

The report emphasises the need to achieve further progress on MDGs and set more ambitious post-2015 goals, including increasing access, ensuring quality and expanding educational opportunities.

Education is an end in itself, but it is also central to development, as it creates fair, inclusive and prosperous societies and addresses inequalities. The goals for post-2015 framework are zero children out of school and zero children failed in learning by poor quality. However, education is affected by a range of external and internal trends

External trends are changes in societies, economic challenges, demographics, changing balance of power and effects of emergencies and humanitarian crises. When it comes to societies, growth of the middle class increases the need for better schools, reaching the poor, however not the poorest segments of society, and it impacts of education quality and the extent of private sector’s involvement in education. After 2015, there will also be changes in economic context, and more focus will be on economic, rather than social opportunities, yet the need remains for equitable growth. In terms of demographics, youth bulges will also create a need for better and more suited education. Although there has been a changing balance of power towards the middle income countries, the global share of

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out of school children in these countries has almost tripled in the last decade, while it has halved in low income countries. Humanitarian emergencies and climate change have effects on the context within which education is delivered. Climate change can cause natural disasters which affect education, but education can also contribute to better knowledge and dealing with disasters. Conflict increases the number of children out of school, affects learning and puts at risk students and teachers.

The points which should drive our work in education in the post-2015 context are: reducing income inequalities, focusing on educational inequity, responding to the growth of middle class and improving quality of public schools, responding to demographic changes and youth bulges, by focusing on youth and their skills, empowering domestic CSOs to demand greater educational investment and quality and finding innovative approaches for providing education in humanitarian emergencies.

Keeping these in mind, Save the Children’s proposed education goal for post- 2015 framework is:

“by 2030 we will ensure all children receive a good quality education and have good learning outcomes”.

This goals needs to be underpinned by two important principles: learning and equity.

On the other hand, internal trends, within the education system are also important. The access is moving backwards and both, access and learning should be achieved. There is a difference between simple and effective enrolment rate, or the difference between children who are enrolled, and the ones that are learning. The focus should be on the inequalities in wealth, gender and location, and addressing the early inequalities before schooling. The internal and external trends both have implications for post-2015 framework and should be kept in mind when working on achieving our education goals.

Save the Children (2013). Attacks On Education. The impact of conflict and grave violations on children’s futures. London: Save the Children

This report looks at education in conflict areas and humanitarian crises and provides several case studies: CAR, DRC, Mali, occupied Palestinian territory, Pakistan and Syria. All of these countries have different contexts, but in all of them, there is a long-term impact of conflict on education system.

Large number of children, over 50 million, are out of school. Conflicts and fragile contexts affect the children’s education in many ways, including availability of teachers, difficulties of providing education when state is fragile, low humanitarian funding for education and a greater risk of attacks.

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Attacks on education include killings, disappearances, abductions, forced exile, imprisonment, torture, child soldier recruitment, targeting teachers, use of explosive weapons in populated areas, sexual and gender based violence, as a result of which parents fear sending children to school. Targeted attacks have happened in at least 24 conflict-affected countries since 2007. Attacks may occur because of curriculum, political ideologies or may be targeted at stopping social and economic progress for certain groups.

Attacks have long-term impact on children’s learning trajectories. There are long-term consequences of prolonged time out of school and dropping out, including loss of opportunities for young people. Denying education to children also prevents them from leaving the cycle of violence and conflict, and denying them the positive impact education might have had on their lives. Education needs to be better included in humanitarian response and report calls on governments, humanitarian donors, UN, Security Council and humanitarian stakeholders to take action in facilitating better access and delivery of education in conflict settings, which will require more funding.

Save the Children (2011). Education Global Initiative Moving ahead on education. A focused strategy for achieving our education goals 2012-2015. London: Save the Children

The Global Education Initiative is one of Save the Children’s six global initiatives. Its strategic objectives and key breakthrough areas: basic education, education in emergencies, early childhood care and development, education for youth empowerment, driving global and national policy change.

Save the children education breakthrough is:

“Every child receives a good quality education and learns the skills and knowledge they need to thrive in the 21st century. This is the right of every child, irrespective of their gender, ethnicity, social class, and income or whether they live in conflict zones or fragile states.”

We are still far away from achieving this goal and still 27 million of children in conflict and fragile states are out of school. In order to address this issue, we need to find ways to increase access and quality of schooling, and build emergency response in education.

Yet, in spite of the need to increase the investments in education, there are numerous barriers, such as climate change, related disasters, conflict, migration, economic recession, slowdown in progress, providing access to education for hard to reach, raising the quality of

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education for all, education in emergencies, providing early childhood care and education, and education for youth empowerment.

In order to address these concerns, education strategy for 2012-2015 identifies two breakthroughs: providing education in emergencies and improving literacy for all children and young people. The strategy proposes five strategic objectives: 1. Basic education: All children have access to a good quality basic education, especially those who are excluded and marginalised or living in conflict-affected fragile states. 2. Education in Emergencies: Children and youth at risk of, or affected by, emergencies have access to quality education as a fundamental part of all humanitarian responses. 3. Early childhood care and development: An increased number of young children have access to quality early childhood care and development programmes that ensure their rights to survival, health and education. 4. Education for youth empowerment: To empower vulnerable youth in rural and urban areas through education and training to become active economic, social and political citizens. 5. Driving global and national policy change. To secure global and national policy change so that all children benefit from their right to a good quality education.

In order to track progress in achieving these goals, four global indicators are used: quality of learning environment, learning outcomes, access in Rewrite the Future countries and increased access to education in emergency situations.

UNESCO. (2013). Education for all: Global Monitoring Report 2013/2014. Teaching and learning: achieving quality for all. UNESCO: Paris.

The 2013 Global Monitoring Report emphasises that the goals will not be achieved in time. 57 million children are still not in school, and poor quality is affecting those who gain access to education. One-third of primary school children are not learning the basics. This report calls governments to increase their efforts to ensure the provision of learning to all who are disadvantaged due to poverty, gender or place of residence. It further emphasises the need for providing good teachers, by recruiting additional 1.6 million teachers, but also ensuring adequate and quality training for them.

The report consists of three parts. First part deals with six EFA goals and monitors the progress made so far, as well as the need for financing. The second part of the report examines the positive effects of education in improving people’s lives, through poverty reduction, job creation, and improving health and creating better societies. The third part of the report puts emphasis on quality of education and access, need for ensuring better teachers and also better curriculum.

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When it comes to the EFA goals, early childhood care and development has seen improvements, as under-5 child mortality has fell by 48% since 1990, yet 6.6 million children still died before their 5th birthday in 2012. In the same year, 162 million children under 5 were still malnourished, three-quarters of them in Sub-Saharan African and West Asia. Stunting has also dropped from 40% to 25% between 1990 and 2012, yet a lot of work still remains to be done in this area.

The second EFA goal, achieving universal primary education will be missed, as although the number of children out of school has halved since 1990, 57 million children remain to be out of school. 54% of those out of school are girls, and the number in Arab countries, 60%, has not changes since 2000. School access is associated with other factors, and often it is the disadvantages they are born with that prevent children from gaining education. Disability, for example, halts progress of many children, In Iraq, 51% of those at risk of mental disability have never been in school.

The third goal, youth and adult skills has been neglected partly because there are no adequate targets or monitoring options. Foundation skills can be achieved through lower secondary education and this has increased from 72% to 82% in the 1991-2011 period. 774 million adults still remain illiterate, and not much progress has been achieved since 2000. Almost 75% of the illiterate adults are based in only 10 countries and women make up for two-third of those. When it comes to gender parity, 63% of countries have achieved the target. Quality of education, partly measured through the pupil/teacher ratio, still needs to be addressed. In a third of countries, less than 75% of teachers are trained according to national standards. 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a teacher pupil ratio above 1:40

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in 2011. Teachers lack quality learning materials and textbooks. In Tanzania, 3.5% of grade 6 pupils had sole use of a reading textbook. Poor physical infrastructure is another problem, due to overcrowded classrooms. In Malawi, there are on average 130 children per class in grade 1.

After 2015, the goals will still remain relevant, yet new priorities, particularly inequality are likely to emerge. In sub-Saharan Africa, the richest boys will achieve universal primary completion in 2021, but the poorest girls only in 2086, while they would achieve secondary completion only in 2111.

Insufficient financing remains to be one of the main obstacles and some countries have even decreased their education budgets. Aid towards education fell between 2010 and 2011. There is a need for increasing domestic revenue from taxes and diverting them towards education.

The second part of the report looks at the importance of education for children’s lives and education as a fundamental human right. Education is a catalyst for achieving other development goals, it reduces poverty, boosts job opportunities, increases one’s income, fosters economic prosperity, strengthens democracy, improves understanding of politics and improves health. If all students in low income countries left school with basic reading skills, 171 million people could escape poverty, decreasing it by 12%.

A large part of the report is dedicated to the learning crisis and the need to support the teachers. Teachers which are trained and motivated, support learners and operate in well-managed education system, are crucial for the better learning environment. Child’s learning is largely influenced by family wealth, as living in poor and disadvantaged areas presents not only geographical barrier, but is also linked with other barriers such as gender, ethnicity and poverty. In Senegal, only 20% of rural young women could read, compared with 65% of urban young men. Improving quality and learning outcomes should be national priorities. Quality is affected by the lack of teachers and class size. Sub- Saharan Africa needs additional 225,000 primary school teacher annually between 2011 and 2015.

The report identifies 10 most important teaching reforms that policy makers should adopt in order to achieve equitable learning for all. These are: filling the teacher gap, attracting the best candidates for teaching, training teachers to meet the needs of all children, preparing teacher educators and mentors to support teachers, getting teachers to where they are needed most, using a competitive career and pay structure to retain the best teachers, Improving teacher governance to maximize impact, equipping teachers with innovative curricula to improve learning, developing classroom assessments to help teachers identify and support students at risk of not learning, and providing better data on trained teachers

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UNESCO (2012). Education For All - Global Monitoring Report: Youth and skills: putting education to work. Paris: UNESCO.

The report focuses on youth, education and employment and transferable skills, for both, urban and rural youth. One of the goals of EFA is to ensure that all young people have the opportunity to acquire skills, and in the context of falling employment levels, this is even more crucial. Education is not only about making sure all children can attend school, but about providing them with opportunities to work and fulfil their potential. The report also monitors and evaluates progress towards 6 EFA goals. It concludes that most goals are slowing down and are unlikely to be met. Early childhood care and education has seen improvements in child nutrition, but progress is slow and uneven. There is a need to focus on expanding pre-primary education and preparing children for school. Progress towards achieving universal primary education has stalled. Addressing this will require reduction of school costs for the poorest, especially non-fee costs such as uniforms and supplies. Youth and adult learning have taken a back seat and more progress is needed towards measuring skill development. Progress in adult literacy has been slow. There are still gender disparities when it comes to learning outcomes and girl’s access to education, but there is also a disengagement of boys in secondary schools. The quality of education and learning is linked with one’s socio-economic status, and millions are failing to learn the basics in school.

Financing EFA is a great challenge, especially as the donor commitment to education is stagnating due to financial crisis. Since 1999, education funding has increased, and although budgets have been cut during the crisis, it has not significantly affected education. Aid constitutes a substantial percentage of funding for education, in poor countries, as much as one-fifth in some countries. Although there has been stagnation in education aid, there is a potential to use funds from natural resources and private organisations in order to finance education. If resource rich countries use revenue from the resources in transparent and efficient manner, funding could be going towards EFA. Additionally, private foundations and corporations engage in education in many different ways and with very different motivations, ranging from altruistic philanthropy to self-interested investment, and channel millions of dollars annually to education in developing countries. The problem is that private contributions are seldom aligned with EFA goals and they may attempt to influence public policy in other arenas through provision of funds. The report then further focuses on skills and transferable skills of youth, as well as the painful transition from school to work. There is a growing youth population globally, yet not enough jobs are available for them. This is often combined with the lack of skills and unequal access to skills and job market. Skills can be foundation, transferable, technical and vocational. Many still lack foundation skills, due to wide inequalities in income and location, gender and disabilities, and care must be taken to give young people a second chance to acquire these.

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The report also discusses skills of urban and rural youth. Increasing number of people are living in urban areas, but urban poverty is also increasing. Most youth in urban areas are informally engaged in work, but expansion of their skills and education can increase their chances of better employment, or higher wages. On the other hand, most of the world’s poor live in rural areas and they need different type of skills, meaning that trainings should be tailored to their specific needs and new technologies integrated into their work.

Investing in youth skills should be part of the broader development effort. These include strategies such as providing second chances, tackling barriers to secondary school access, provision of training to urban youth, aiming policies at rural areas, linking skills training with social protection, provide trainings for disadvantaged young women, harnessing the potential of technology to increase opportunities for youth, improving planning and data collection, and mobilising diverse sources of funding to provide training for disadvantaged youth.

OECD Center for Educational Research and Innovation (2013). Trends Shaping Education. Paris: OECD.

The publication focuses on the OECD countries and it provides overview of key social, economic, demographic and technological trends linked with education. 5 major themes are examined: globalisation, wellbeing and lifestyle, skills and labour market, modern families and new technologies.

Globalisation involves issues such as greater communications and movement of goods and people, changing global economic context, income inequalities and need for global solutions. Wellbeing and lifestyle concern urbanisation, increase of megacities in less developed countries, ageing population, national security and democratic principles. When it comes to skills and labour market, attention should be given to changing role of women in the labour market and associated difficulties, need for skills and knowledge, income inequalities and the extent to which education can stimulate social mobility. Family environment impacts on children’s life chances and their performance later in life, yet modern families are becoming smaller, with older parents, higher divorce rates, and higher incomes. New technologies and internet have transformed our lives, with online banking, apps and social connectivity, but there are also downsides to this, including internet fraud, identity theft and misleading information.

3.2 Health

The second thematic area important for the work of Save the Children, and affecting child rights and wellbeing, is health. Health is a broad term that encompasses everything from malnutrition, universal health coverage, immunisation and access to food and agriculture.

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Save the children. (2013). Food for Thought. Tackling Child Malnutrition to unlock potential and boost prosperity. Save the Children. London.

This report looks at effects of nutrition and malnutrition on child development, long term health and education. Malnutrition has effects on brain development, cognitive development and educational outcomes. Research shows that malnourished children have lower test scores and are less likely to be in appropriate grade for their age.

The report further links malnutrition with economic growth and economic outcomes later in life, as malnutrition is identified to be a cause and a driver of poverty. Malnourished children earn 20% less later in life, which perpetuates the cycle of inequality. Thus, investing in malnutrition is important for economic growth and development.

The report promotes investment in nutrition, especially in the first 1000 days of pregnancy and birth, as there are serious consequences of missing the investment at this stage of demographic changes, especially since there is an emphasis of taking advantage of the demographic dividend, particularly in Africa.

Report outlines six interventions and recommendations on prevention of malnutrition: support and finance national plans to scale up nutrition, declare and meet interim impact targets by 2016 as part of the global goal to alleviate the burden of malnutrition in children by 2025, enhance nutrition-sensitivity of agriculture initiatives so food-based approaches can contribute more to improving nutritional status, ensure nutrition is a core part of the G8 Accountability Report, recognise the importance of nutrition for cognitive and educational development, and ensure that nutrition is integrated as a key component of early years’ programming, and Integrate stimulation interventions into early years’ programmes, in order to mitigate the impacts of malnutrition on children’s cognitive development.

Save the Children (2013). Universal Health Coverage: A commitment to close the gap. London: Save the Children.

The report discusses the need for universal health coverage (UHC), as a human right, and the need for quality of services. It defines universal health coverage as ensuring

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“that all people obtain the health services they need, of good quality, without suffering financial hardship when paying for them”.

Access to good quality health services should be based on a need, not on the ability to pay or other social attributes. This report focuses on how and why inequity, or unfair and avoidable inequalities, should be prioritised as countries progress on the path towards UHC. There are growing inequalities between rich and poor in the countries, but also within countries, and unequal access to health services increases these, due to high level of out-of-pocket-spending. Health disparities are a result of lack of available health services. Structural factors also play an important role. These are social determinant of health, including conditions in which people are born, grow, live, work and age. These conditions are shaped by unequal distribution of wealth, resources and influence, both across and within countries.

“health outcomes and access to health services are based on wealth, education,

urban/rural location, gender, ethnicity and age”

In order to address the inequities, most important issue is financing of health provision. There are numerous lessons from low income countries when it comes to health coverage, which can be useful for the work of Save the Children in this area: 1. Increased and equitable funding for the health system through increasing progressive mandatory prepayment mechanisms and revenues from taxation, scaling contributions by ability to pay eliminating OOPS (out of pocket spending) for vulnerable populations and/or priority services in the absence of effective targeting mechanisms. 2. Pooled risks and resources at scale: consolidating pools to increase redistribution across the population and ensuring inclusion for all vulnerable groups. 3. Strategic purchasing: designing a benefit package that meets the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable, aligning provider incentives through performance-based and other appropriate payment mechanisms. Report then identifies policy options and recommendation for implementing reforms for UHC to governments and donors. Governments need to work on reform of laws, policies and practices, political will, resource allocation, transparency, increased participation, and strategies to address OOPS for the poorest. Donors, on the other hand should increase investment, strengthen civil society's capacity, address global policies and arrangements and invest in strengthening data to monitor effects. Post-2015 framework is an opportunity for more equitable approaches to health. There is already a strong support for UHC globally, and through Rio+20 Declaration.

Save the Children. (2013). Enough Food for Everyone IF. The need for UK action on global hunger. London: Save the Children.

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IF report discusses what is needed to tackle global food crisis, in terms of high prices and unequal distribution, starting by describing the extent of the problem.

There is enough food produced for everyone, yet almost 900 million people are hungry and 2 billion do not receive adequate nutrients. In both cases, women suffer more than men due to gender inequalities. Hunger is a human tragedy and affects economic development. Majority of hungry are small scale farmers pushed off their land by climate change or business acquisitions.

The report emphasises importance of small scale farming, especially women farmers and aid investment in this area, as well as issue of climate change, revealing tax dodgers, exposing tax havens and enabling developing countries to collect taxes domestically and raise revenue, land availability for sustainable and fair use of land, food security, growth and development which benefits the poor, issue of land grabs and biofuels, and open governance and citizen participation and private sector investment in food security, including seeing clearly what’s happening to land, and what businesses and governments do, in addressing food crisis.

The funding for addressing hunger should not only come from the outside, but also from the domestic sources- taxes.

The IF coalition emphasises that UK can improve the food access through enough aid for agriculture, and financing commitment and supporting small scale farmers, investing in nutrition, financing adaptation to climate change, preventing tax dodging, but investing these funds in agriculture, preventing land grabs and displacement, planting food, not fuel, increasing transparency and accountability of government and businesses.

The chapters discuss work on hunger through cost-effective investment in agriculture and nutrition, revealing tax dodgers, ensuring access to land to grow food and improving transparency. Cost-effective investment in agriculture and nutrition means that we need to support sustainable and small scale farmers. There is a need for further aid investment in agriculture and aid focus on malnutrition, and providing funding for climate change and its effects. Developed countries need to commit themselves to contributions in this sector. Revealing tax dodgers is important because both, public and private funding is needed to end hunger and malnutrition. This can be done by exposing tax havens and urgent action on tax evasion. Access to land and issue of land grabs is important because of lack of land to grow food on and increased use of land for biofuels. Improving transparency requires better access to information on land and natural resources, actions of companies and their public reports and government’s actions and strategies.

Save the Children. (2012). Immunisation for All. No child left behind. London: Save the Children.

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The report emphasises the need for immunisation for all children and it discusses the contribution immunisation makes to declining child mortality. Immunisation is considered most cost-effective and affordable intervention promoting child survival. All children, regardless of their economic status, political affiliation, geographical location, gender, caste, colour or religion, should have equal access to immunisation. Global immunisation coverage has increased over the years, and it currently stands at 83%. The report gives key considerations for strengthening routine immunisation: effective and integrated use of outreach, investments in frontline health workers, including addressing issues of motivation and performance, innovations to strengthen supply chains and service delivery, specific initiatives such as Reaching Every District, and engaging and empowering communities to demand immunisation, and to shape delivery mechanisms to increase uptake and improve the quality and supply of immunisation services. Currently, 1 in 5 children is not immunised. Immunisation is not a matter of chance, but is deeply linked with socio-economic status, education and exclusion from the society. States need to provide access for all children and international community should ensure affordability of vaccines for poor countries. Two chapters focus on country level and global level action in order to ensure immunisation for all. At the country level, there is a need for better delivery and addressing bottlenecks, and the task demands political will and commitment. This can be done through improving or changing the delivery channels and creating strategies for getting to hard-to-reach: investing in frontline health workers, innovation to improve delivery, community empowerment to demand better services and accountability. At the global level, R&D agendas should be adapted to respond to major causes of mortality and morbidity of the poor and vulnerable, such as development and adaptation of products to be better suited for the context. Low and middle income countries need access to medicines at low prices, which can be encouraged by facilitating competition, supporting technology transfers to build capacities, or pooled purchasing. Additional factor to be considered at the global level is that majority of the poor no longer live in low income, but middle income countries and fragile and conflict states, which puts emphasis on addressing inequalities within countries, not only globally. The report concludes by giving recommendations to governments, GAVI, private sector, civil society, bilateral donors and WHO and Unicef. Governments should develop strategies to address inequalities, empower communities and invest in national R&D. GAVI should make equity a top priority, ensure budget allocations and encourage price transparency with pharmaceuticals. Private sector also needs to prioritise R&D, increase transparency about pricing and support capacity building of emerging market suppliers through knowledge transfers. Civil society should actively participate in immunisation and health systems and engage in monitoring. Bilateral donors are to continue investments in R&D and champion opportunity of immunisation to promote equity. Finally, WHO and Unicef should promote equity as primary agenda, and ensure meaningful civil society representation in monitoring and accountability frameworks.

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Save the Children. (2013). Livelihoods at the Limit: Food Security in a Changing World. London: Save the children.

Focus of this report is on the rural poverty. Through Household economy analysis and cost of diet, report looks at the ways in which poor rural household meet food needs. The conclusion is that poor do not meet food needs from own crop production, but instead through selling their labour to others for food production. Report also provides strategies for improving food security. These include providing enabling environments and better risk management approaches in order to enable investments in poor households, increasing food security and poverty reduction by protecting wellbeing and productivity of household labour, and increasing their earning off their own land, prioritising the importance of livestock and livelihood, and improving access to nutrients, by narrowing the gap between income and nutritious diet, raising income, reducing cost of nutrient dense foods and extending health coverage. The report puts forward four policy recommendations: 1. Since the majority of households in poor and very poor wealth groups obtain much of their food and cash income from sources other than their own crop production, international aid organisations and national governments aiming to raise income and improve food security for these households should expand the investments outside of just small-holder agriculture 2. Because much of poor households’ total income is obtained through deploying their own labour, often on the farms of richer households and through seasonal migration to better-off areas both within and outside their own countries, investments in protecting labour income should be considered more seriously as a means of both reducing seasonal and inter-annual food security risks, as well as an avenue for reducing poverty. 3. Investments in livestock could pay off for all wealth group areas. 4. The sheer size of the affordability gap between total income and the cost of a nutritious diet, particularly for the poorest households, suggests that a combination of strategies is needed in order to improve access to nutrients essential for the well-being of mothers and for the growth of children.

Pradhan et al (2012) “Newborn survival in Nepal: a decade of change and future implications”, Health Policy and Planning, Volume 27, Issue suppl 3, Pp. iii57-iii71.

Nepal is on track to meet maternal and child health MDG by 2015 in spite of high levels of poverty, infrastructure and recent conflict. The changes between 2000 and 2010 have been significant: reduction in neonatal mortality rate (30%) and total fertility rate, improvements in female education, community based child health interventions and skilled birth

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attendance. This was mainly achieved due to national newborn strategy, which was replicated in the region, and innovation and use of community- based package.

The report looks at results in terms of neonatal mortality rates. Consistent decrease has been noted since the 1990s. Since 2006, important policy changes have taken place in Nepal, and associated improvements in health indicators. There are three main causes of neonatal deaths: complications of preterm birth, infections and intrapartum related. These have been addressed due to expansion of community prenatal care, availability and quality of newborn care services.

Nepal is one of the leaders in MDG 4 and newborn survival, due to community based newborn health interventions. Early innovation and political commitment have brought rapid changes, and emphasised the need to focus on quality care in facilities due to rapid increase in facility-based births.

Countdown 2015. (2012). Briefing Note: East Asia/Pacific and South Asia Regions: Progress on Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival. Geneva: Countdown2015. The briefing note gives overview of countries’ progress in achieving the MDG 4 and 5. Two-third of countries are on track for achieving MDG4, and only six, of fifteen, for MDG5. In South Asia, only Nepal and Bangladesh are on way of achieving both goals, while in East Asia, these are Cambodia, China, Laos and Vietnam. A key difference between countries in South Asia and East Asia is the antenatal care, skilled birth attendance, postnatal care, or early initiation of breastfeeding. Only a third of women in South Asia receive assistance with these, while 60% of women in East Asia are covered by these services. There are inequities of access, and more should be done to reach the poorest and most vulnerable. Coverage is much higher for wealthier and those in urban areas.

Unicef. 2012. Situation of Child Health in Asia. Ppt presentation At the High level meeting in Washington in June 2012, governments, CSOs and faith leaders pledged to act on reducing child survival. Twenty countries which had high mortality of children under the age of 5 have reduced it by half, yet the burden remains concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Child mortality is linked with mother’s education, household wealth and location. More than a third of child deaths are due to under-nutrition, pneumonias, neonatal, diarrhoea and malaria. There is a link between maternal and child health and nutrition and prenatal care, childbirth care and postnatal and newborn care. Addressing preventable child deaths requires a change of focus towards geographical disparities, enabling environment, neonatal and nutrition. Health care financing for addressing inequities, improving effectiveness of existing interventions and strengthening national and subnational budgeting are needed in order to address these.

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OECD/ WHO. (2012). Health at a glance. Asia Pacific 2012. Paris: OECD/WHO

The OECD/ WHO report gives overview of main indicators on health for 27 countries in Asia/Pacific region. First chapter shows variations between countries regarding life expectancy, infant and child mortality, and causes of mortality and morbidity, such as HIV, malaria and diabetes. Life expectancy at birth is increasing due to the increase in living standards and better nutrition, better education and access to quality health services. Life expectancy at birth reached an average of 72.2. years in 2010. However, a large regional divide remains, and factors such as women’s education, income and socio economic status have important role in this. Infant mortality is higher in South and South East Asia. In 2010, 7.6 million children died in the world before they turned 5, and one third of these deaths took place in Asia/Pacific region. Second chapter analyses non-medical determinants of health, and discusses reproductive health issues, low birth weight and breastfeeding, and lifestyle indicators such as smoking, alcohol, nutrition and water and sanitation. Leading factor of death among young women in Asia is unsafe sex. 27 million unwanted pregnancies were terminated, 11 million of which in unsafe conditions. Poor nutrition is linked with ill health. 6,000 deaths occur from tobacco, and 2.3% of all deaths in 2004 were linked with alcohol. Subsequent chapters discuss health care systems and resources, including supply of doctors and nurses, hospital beds and health care services, health financing and spending, and quality of services. 3.3 Child Rights Governance

Child rights governance is one of the most prominent issues, which requires improvements in government approaches to child rights, strengthening institutions, transparency and accountability, and ensuring involvement and participation of children.

Save the Children. (2012). Child Rights Governance Analysis Tool. London: Save the Children.

The document describes CRG, as one sector of Save the Children’s work. It defines governance as:

”set of institutions and processes by which authority in a country is exercised, public policy is carried out and public services are provided.“

Good governance should incorporate human rights, democratisation, rule of law, non-discrimination, equity, decentralised power, voice of civil society, responsible management of public resources and effective public administration.

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The document is a guideline for CRG analysis and discusses its importance for children, because it affects their lives. Children cannot vote, they are dependent and more vulnerable in conflict. It further analyses the importance of CRG for the work of INGOs and how it adds value to Save the Children’s work.

First part of the report starts with description of what is necessary for implementation according to the UNCRC. These include 11 principles, such as legal reform, resources, strategies, capacity building, cooperation with civil society and cooperation with international actors, among others.

In the second part, report looks at some of the governance areas and key actors. When it comes to the governance areas, citizenship and economic governance are both important. Citizenship refers to free, accessible and compulsory birth registration, in order to establish the relationship between the child and the state, and statelessness, rights and freedoms, as defined by the UNCRC. Economic governance entails investment in children and breakthrough areas, socio economic context, regulation of private sector and social protection. Four focus areas here, which affect financing for children, are taxation, budget allocation, aid and anti-corruption.

In terms of socio-economic context, economic policies affect the lives of children and social policy should enhance children’s lives through development plans and social protection programmes. There are also trends and shocks affecting children, such as HIV, conflict and natural disasters which are a part of wider socio-economic environment.

Furthermore, regulating private sector also requires assessment of impact of non-state actors on children and how businesses can help state fulfil its duties. ‘Social protection’ is understood as a set of public actions that address poverty, vulnerability and exclusion and provide means to cope with life's major risks throughout the life cycle. There is a need to improve state’s supply of goods and services. Economic governance also includes ensuring financing investment in children, better aid effectiveness for child rights and improving transparency and accountability of investment for children.

Report also analyses the key actors and their role in the area of child rights. These are: state, children and non-state actors, including civil society, private sector, religious groups, media and academia. Non-state actors and private sector can contribute towards achievement of child rights, but there is also a requirement for their regulation. International and regional factors influence the interaction between state, non-state actors and citizens, including children.

Save the Children. (2013). Investment in Children strategy (2013-2015). Our Breakthrough. London: Save the Children.

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The report is a 3 year strategy for Investment in Children for Child Rights Global Initiative. There is a need for prioritization of investment in children, and increased mobilization and utilization of private and public resources, in order to meet their immediate and long term needs.

Investment in children is defined as:

“private or public spending on specific areas that directly benefit children as set out in the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC) and its Optional Protocols particularly on social protection, health, education, child protection, emergencies and the requisite child rights infrastructure and systems (UNCRC General Measures of Implementation).”

The situation analysis discusses challenges related to investments in children, such as political will, growing inequality, especially in middle income countries, debt, limited citizen engagement, corruption, structural bottlenecks and fiscal policies. Political will refers to commitment of governments and donors to provide resources. There is growing inequality, unsustainable debt, illicit financial flows and weak domestic resource mobilization through taxation, together with corruption and lack of transparency in public spending. Citizen engagement with budget processes is limited and there are structural bottlenecks, such as lack of analysis on child situation, poor targeting and unequal distribution.

CRG GI goal by 2020 is that all children, especially the poorest, benefit from greater public investment and better use of society’s resources in realizing their rights. In order to achieve that goal, states need to prioritise spending on poorest and vulnerable children by focusing on inequality, and ensuring that all children benefit, concentrating advocacy and campaigning on public spending, but still allowing a role for private sector, balancing between more spending and better spending. Additionally, increasing social protection spending and good governance brings better outcomes for children. The strategy of investing in children has 3 pillars: 1) Resource mobilization to invest in children, technical assistance, capacity building, policy research, participation in advocacy and engagement with donors and private sector. 2) More and better spending on children, focusing on poorest and vulnerable, raising political profile of children’s issues, budget analysis and advocacy, promoting costing of child rights policies and plans, impact assessment of policies, budget monitoring and expenditure tracking, promoting child responsive budgeting frameworks, promoting regional and global norms on public spending, leveraging key events and state party reporting. 3) Transparency, participation and accountability in resource mobilization and spending: promoting budget transparency and accountability, supporting social accountability initiatives, participation in ongoing transparency and accountability initiatives, and promoting citizen participation in planning and budgeting.

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Governments must prioritize investment in children and there is a need for shifts in political will, in order to make children a priority in resource mobilization and utilization. CRG programme guide (full reference needed)

The guide describes the CRG, Save the Children’s theory of change and need for partnerships. Child rights’ governance helps strengthen governance system that implements the UNCRC and child rights obligations. CRG breakthrough is:

“By 2020, all children, especially the poorest, benefit from greater public investment and better use of society’s resources in realising their rights.”

The guide discusses in detail the CRG programming, work in humanitarian context and monitoring and evaluation of Save the Children’s work. Second part of the report discusses the national child rights infrastructure, policies, legal reforms, child rights impact assessment and child focused budgeting. It also covers key governance areas, including citizenship and birth registration, civil rights and freedoms of children, including those of voice, expression and association and investments in children and spending in areas which benefit children directly.

Strengthening actors and relationships in CRG, including civil society, international and regional level institutions, media, academia, religious groups and leaders, private sector and involving children are all essential steps towards achieving good governance for children. Strengthening relationship with private sector also helps advocate for good business practices.

Document is meant to be used as a guide towards child rights situation analysis. It discusses progress made in CRG and Save the Children’s role in this process, and explains in detail the CRG process, requirements, actors and bottlenecks. Special attention is given to investment in children and budgeting, taxation, aid and child friendly budgeting. Save the Children. (2013). Turning children’s rights into children’s realities. Why open, inclusive and accountable budgets are important for children. London: Save the Children.

The document is a discussion of why open accountable budgets are important for realisation of children’s rights. It discusses relationship between governance, children’s rights, open budgets and budget transparency.

Since UNCRC, important progress has been made on child rights, due to government’s commitments, yet still much remains to be done and governments need to ensure further legislative and administrative steps in order to facilitate child rights.

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There is a growing global consensus that the best way to manage public funds effectively and equitably is through budget systems that are transparent, open to public engagement and scrutiny, and that have robust oversight institutions and mechanisms.

The document outlines recommendations to governments, including budget transparency and participation, geographical spread of resource allocation, and publishing info on spending, particularly spending on child rights. There is a need to address income inequality and manage public funds effectively and equitably, include children in the debates and increase their opportunities to participate.

Research reveals the good practices and challenges of child friendly budgeting and identifies cross-country findings on child malnutrition and budgeting.

Save the Children. (2013). Child Rights Governance IS Good Governance for Children A strategy for achieving our Child Rights Governance goals 2013 – 2015. London: Save the Children.

Document describes the need for child rights governance and the role of civil society, state and other actors in ensuring child rights. CRG is meant to encourage actors to promote child rights and strengthen civil society, which in turn can hold government accountable. Save the Children aims to improve the situation of children in all societies and advocate their rights on the political agenda.

Goals are for states to meet obligations regarding rights of children and civil society to hold states accountable. The need for good governance includes all state institutions and national, regional and international actors which play a role in child rights. Since UNCRC, progress has been made in child rights, and added accountability given to actors since implementation of the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) mechanism through the Human Rights Council. The goals of child rights governance are: child rights monitoring, strengthening national systems and building awareness and capacity. The objective of monitoring is to improve accountability of states and other actors regarding child rights. Strengthening national systems and state institutions assists them to implement the UNCRC. Finally, awareness and capacity building ensures that civil society is mobilised to promote children’s rights. The report also discusses Save the Children’s breakthroughs. Past breakthroughs are the formation of the organsation, and drafting of UNCRC in 1989. New breakthrough by 2020 is defined:

“All children, especially the poorest, benefit from greater public investment and better use of society’s resources in realising their rights.”

The breakthrough focuses on increased mobilisation, allocation and utilisation of private and public resources, in order to realise children’s immediate and long term needs.

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Save the Children. (2012). Child Rights Governance- CRGI Annual Report 2012.

London: Save the Children.

This document illustrates the types of initiative that have proved effective in protecting and

securing children’s rights in particular through child participation, which significantly is one

of the main recommendations put forward in helping to combat child protection issues.

In Tanzania, resources were increased in six out of the seven programme districts in 2012,

for activities prioritised by children as a result of advocacy conducted at local level jointly by

Save the Children, children’s councils and partners. 4,298 children’s council members used

skills gained through the programme to identify and report 537 child rights violation cases

to designated government officials.

Globally, 15 countries reported that policy or legislative changes to institutionalise children’s

rights have taken place with the support of the organisation.

In Afghanistan, Save the Children provided training on child rights in Islam to over 1,500

religious leaders, community elders, teachers and school administrators in Balkh and

Nangarhar provinces. Children and children with disabilities advocated for the problems and

key issues to be included in the first report submitted to UNCRC by the Afghanistan

government and civil society. As a result, the Ministry of Justice has started working on the

development of a Child Act with the support of civil society organisations, including children

with disabilities.

In Nicaragua, projects directly suggested by children and implemented by municipalities

benefitted 135.300 children in 2012, through securing new classrooms and sports fields.

Save the Children used the media to reinforce the importance of children’s rights reaching more than 300,000 people with radio and TV messages.

3.4 Child protection

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Kleve-Ruud, L. (2013). Child Protection in the post 2015 agenda, Thematic think

piece. (...)

This document outlines Save the Children’s position on child protection in the post 2015

debate and calls for a stand-alone goal on child protection. A stand-alone goal is imperative

because the protection of children and the promotion of their well-being is closely linked to

the development and well being of their societies. It would also remedy the omission of the

current MDG framework to adequately address children’s protection and wider human

security issues. Lack of inclusion in the current framework has meant that child protection

was not a priority for international community.

The persistent scarcity of sustained funding for child protection has put children at further

risk of being abused, exploited and neglected, with a direct impact on their lives and

development, and with an invisible but high cost on society as a whole. In the US, child

abuse and neglect affects over 1 million children every year, and is estimated to cost the

country $220 million every day. Between 500 million and 1.5 billion children experience

violence annually.

Save the Children’s ambitions, which should underpin the goal are: ending child deaths from

armed conflict and halving the number of non-conflict violent deaths of children, halving the

number of children who are subject to sexual violence and abuse of any form, halving the

number of children subjected to violent discipline at home and halving the number of

children unnecessarily living outside family care.

Delap, E. (2013). Protect my future: Why child protection matters in the post-2015

development agenda. (...)

The document argues that child protection should be a priority in the post- 2015

development agenda and that it should include the following proposed goal on child

protection:

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“All children live a life free from all forms of violence, are protected in conflicts

and disasters, and thrive in a safe, caring, family environment”

Child protection is important for ensuring strong societies and is a foundation of wellbeing

for children and allowing them to develop their full potential.

However, despite its clear importance and global attempts to ensure that the rights of

children are internationally recognised through treaties and organisations such as the

United Nations Conventions on the Rights of the Child, it is felt that child protection is all too

often and frequently overlooked to detrimental effect. By way of illustration it is pointed

out that surprisingly the issue of child abuse, neglect and exploitation is missing from both,

the existing MDGs and many of the debates around the framework that will replace the

MDGs when they come to an end in 2015.

The authors also provide examples to highlight the extent of the problem that they refer to

as a global crisis. Between 0.5 and 1.5 billion children experience violence annually. 150

million girls and 73 million boys are raped or subject to sexual violence and 115 million

children are engaged in harmful ways of work.

Whilst this not only represents a violation of children’s rights, it also has a wider impact and

harm on society with the consequence that broader development objectives relating to

child survival and health are being adversely affected. Abuse, neglect and exploitation lead

to deaths of many children, while vulnerable children which survive into adulthood are at a

disadvantage due to developmental delays, gaps in schooling and mental and physical

health problems.

Hence, it is argued that as we near the end of the current MDGs and the opportunity to

shape future policy is ripe we should strive to ensure that governments, UN agencies and

other parties involved in the process include child protection in the post 2015 framework.

Further, with the advent of global trends such as climate change, migration and

urbanization all increasing the vulnerabilities of children it seems perverse that

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governments should be systematically failing to invest enough resources in building and

maintaining comprehensive child protection systems.

The targets are: ending all forms of violence against girls and boys in all settings, preventing

the unnecessary separation of children from families and ensure no child is placed in

institutional care unnecessarily, ending the worst forms of child labour, ending child

marriage, birth registration of all children without discrimination, and establishment of child

protection systems that operate effectively at all levels.

The achievement of these aims requires national governments to take several steps. Firstly,

governments and UN agencies should ensure that strengthening child protection systems is

a key part of development agendas and national plans of action. Second, governments,

supported by UN agencies, donors and civil society, should develop coordination and

accountability mechanisms between child protection and other services (including health,

education, justice and social protection) at national and local levels. The actors should

prioritise family-strengthening programmes with child protection systems. Finally,

governments, UN agencies and civil society should develop mechanisms to involve children

and young people and community-based organisations in the design, implementation,

monitoring and evaluation of child protection and relevant services.

Save the Children. (2013). Families first signature programme: Reforming the Child Welfare system in Indonesia, ppt and word document Powerpoint presentation

The programme in Indonesia follows holistic approach and has three objectives. First objective is preventing institutionalisation and helping families to understand the importance of family care for children and assisting them to access services within their homes and communities. Second objective is to provide direct and effective response to girls and boys based on their individual needs and best interests. Third objective is to undertake legal and policy changes in order to provide legal protection for children, while promoting family based care.

Programme has been evaluated through first gathering documentation, going through positive mid-term evaluation and testing the efficiency and effectiveness of key outcomes, such as school enrolment, child maltreatment, family placement of child in institutional care and family economic self-sufficiency.

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The programme has a vision by 2017 to increase access to social workers and social protection schemes and to provide parental education within the communities, access to quality education and ensure that families see no benefits of sending children to institutional care. Institutions should be transformed into community centres, and alternative home based care should be provided for children who cannot live with their biological families. All government´s investments should be shifted from support to institutional towards family based care. Word document The document gives analysis of child situation in Indonesia. Half a million children live in childcare institutions, although they have one or both parents. Institutions are considered to be a safety net, due to provision of education and other services to children. Signature programme aims by 2017 to increase number of children living in family or community-based alternative, preventing institutionalisation, and ensuring legal and policy changes and direct response to children. Programme uses theory of change to ensure that legal and policy changes at the national level are replicated throughout the country. Four components of the theory of change are innovation, results of scale, voice and partnership. Innovation should be used in child and family support services and family visits. The scale of the programme is targeted at half a million children in institutions, but also at 11.5 million of those at risk of institutionalisation. Finally, by ensuring that child-friendly material is produced, including info material, academic research and documenting model of family and child support services, these will be easily available to children. The document also identifies several risks to the programme and the challenge of sustainability. Save the Children. (2013). Child Protection Initiative: FAQs. London: Save the Children. This document explains the CPI and the ways in which it links with breakthroughs, priority areas and main goals in child protection strategy. It is mainly technical, defining and describing the functioning of the CPI.

„The Child Protection Initiative (CPI) provides a global strategic framework under/ or in which Save the Children as a networked movement (members, regions and countries) aligns all of its Child Protection work to achieve greater impact for children“.

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CPI and Child Protection Strategy sets out four priority areas: children without appropriate care, children in emergencies, physical and humiliating punishment, and children and harmful work. The child protection breakthrough is:

“All children thrive in a safe family environment and no child is placed in harmful institutions”.

The child protection breakthrough is monitored through indicators for child protection: utilisation of child protection services, quality of services, child protection legislation and policy change and orphans and vulnerable children.

Save the Children/ Unicef. (2013). Children’s rights and Business Principles. London: Save the Children. Children make up one-third of world’s population and are inevitably affected by business interests and operations. They are more affected by hazards than adults, as they are going through a unique period of physical and psychological development. Since there is greater awareness of links between business and human rights, there is a need to ensure that businesses prevent harm and safeguard child’s interests. Children’s rights are enshrined in UNCRC and ILOs Conventions 138 and 182 on minimum working age and worst forms of child labour. The business principles to protect child rights are driven by responsibility to protect and commitment to support. The document sets out 10 main principles for businesses:

Meet their responsibility to respect children’s rights and commit to supporting the human rights of children

Contribute to the elimination of child labour, including in all business activities and business relationships

Provide decent work for young workers, parents and caregivers Ensure the protection and safety of children in all business activities and facilities Ensure that products and services are safe, and seek to support children’s rights through

them Use marketing and advertising that respect and support children’s rights Respect and support children’s rights in relation to the environment and to land acquisition

and use Respect and support children’s rights in security arrangements Help protect children affected by emergencies Reinforce community and government efforts to protect and fulfil children’s rights.

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Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Violence against

Children (2013). Toward a world free from violence: Global Survey on Violence against

children. New York: Unicef.

As its backdrop this paper uses the 2006 Global Survey on Violence against children and the

12 recommendations that were originally put forward and confirms that, “they continue to

serve as a fundamental reference for child protection the world over.”

It asserts that Governments must re-double their efforts to translate into practice the

recommendations identified in the 2006 UN study, and re-focuses the report for a

contemporary audience by looking beyond the concerns expressed in the original UN study

to explore new themes and challenges in child protection and the prevention of violence,

including social exclusion and deprivation aggravated by the world economic crisis, climate

change, rising food prices, natural disasters and mass population movements.

It acknowledges that policy and reality have become disjointed. Whilst Freedom from

violence is a fundamental human right, enshrined in the UNCRC, many children are still

devoid of such protections and it is estimated that every year between 500 million and 1.5

billion children worldwide endure some form of violence. The paper advocates that child

protection must be given a place in the post 2015 agenda.

The paper makes clear that violence is corrosive for children, in stunting growth,

development and causing psychological harm, and also for society, by affecting country’s

human and social capital.

In order to address the problem of violence, Global Survey sets out 8 imperatives which

although not necessarily radical in that they echo much of the existing rhetoric on the

subject and the suggestions made, they show that there is some universal agreement on

how best to tackle the problem:

1. All governments should develop and promote a national, child centred, integrated,

multidisciplinary and time-bound strategy to address violence against children.

2. Explicit legal bans on violence against children should be enacted as a matter of

urgency, accompanied by detailed measures for implementation and effective enforcement.

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3. Policy initiatives and legal measures should be accompanied by greater efforts to

address the social acceptance of violence against children.

4. There must be an ongoing commitment to children’s meaningful participation.

5. All governments must work to ensure the social inclusion of girls and boys who are

particularly vulnerable.

6. Governments must recognize the crucial importance of collecting appropriately

disaggregated data on violence against children and match this recognition with adequate

support.

7. There must be a stronger focus on the factors that influence levels of violence and

the resilience of children, their families and communities. These include poverty and

inequality, environmental degradation, natural disasters, mass population movements,

political instability and organised crime.

8. As the international community considers the future global development agenda

beyond 2015, violence against children, including the most vulnerable and marginalized

girls and boys must be made a priority and recognised as a cross-cutting concern. The

human dignity of children and their right to protection from violence must be at the heart

of this global effort just as they must be at the heart of national strategies.

5. Conclusion

Education, health, child rights governance and child protection are all important areas through which Save the Children sets its breakthroughs and priorities for achieving child rights and wellbeing. The changing global context and emerging trends present opportunities, risks and challenges for Save the Children’s work, and the literature review is done with the goal of informing about the contemporary context and developments within each of the thematic areas.

Thematic areas presented in this review present the priority areas of work for Save the Children, but are certainly not exhaustive themes when it comes to work on child rights and wellbeing. Furthermore, as the context of work changes from country to country, and as the new trends impact the global environment, the prioritisation of subjects within the themes will differ.

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In the area of education, the literature points to the benefits of providing access to the quality education in terms of reduction of poverty, increasing income and employment opportunities and ensuring positive health outcomes. Further emphasis is also given to the early childhood care and development and working with youth on skill building, as well as ensuring the provision of education in conflict areas.

When it comes to working on health, it is important to note that children’s health is related to other determinants, including socio-economic status, mothers’ education and their geographic location. This includes child immunisation, malnutrition, access to food and land, use of resources towards health and education, and provision of universal health coverage.

Another important area of work is Child Rights Governance, and raising awareness and capacity of society to ensure that government and other actors make decisions in the interest of children, by ensuring child participation and respect for child rights.

The final thematic area, child protection, deals with issues of violence against children and child labour. In the light of violations of child rights, Save the Children insists on prioritising violence against children and provision of family care in the post-2015 agenda.

Working within each of these areas, the organisations need to examine the realities of the local context, global influences and potential risks and opportunities, and in the light of these develop strategies, approaches and priorities for child rights.

References

Countdown 2015. (2012). Briefing Note: East Asia/Pacific and South Asia Regions: Progress on Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival. Geneva: Countdown2015. Delap, E. (2013). Protect my future: Why child protection matters in the post-2015 development agenda. (...) Kleve-Ruud, L. (2013). Child Protection in the post 2015 agenda, Thematic think piece. (...)

Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Violence against Children

(2013). Toward a world free from violence: Global Survey on Violence against children. New

York: Unicef.

OECD/ WHO. 2012. Health at a glance. Asia Pacific 2012. Paris: OECD/WHO.

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Pradhan et al (2012) “Newborn survival in Nepal: a decade of change and future implications”, Health Policy and Planning, Volume 27, Issue suppl 3, Pp. iii57-iii71. Save the Children. (2013). Child Rights Governance IS Good Governance for Children. A strategy for achieving our Child Rights Governance goals 2013 – 2015. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2013). Food for Thought. Tackling Child Malnutrition to unlock potential and boost prosperity. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2013). Universal Health Coverage: A commitment to close the gap. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2013). Enough Food for Everyone IF. The need for UK action on global hunger. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2013). Livelihoods at the Limit: Food Security in a Changing World. London: Save the children. Save the Children. (2013). Ending the hidden exclusion. Learning and equity in education post-2015. London: Save the Children Save the Children. (2013). Attacks On education. The impact of conflict and grave violations on children’s futures. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2013). Investment in Children strategy (2013-2015). Our Breakthrough. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2013). Turning children’s rights into children’s realities. Why open, inclusive and accountable budgets are important for children. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2013). Families first signature programme: Reforming the Child Welfare system in Indonesia. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2013). Child Protection Initiative: FAQs. London: Save the Children. Save the Children/ Unicef. (2013). Children’s Rights and Business Principles. London: Save the Children Save the Children. (2012). Child Rights Governance- CRGI Annual Report 2012. London: Save the Children. Save the Children. (2012). Child Rights Governance Analysis Tool (SC), March 2012. Child Rights Governance Global Initiative. Save the Children: London. Save the Children. (2012). Immunisation for All. No child left behind. London: Save the Children.

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