global trade flow index q2 2010
DESCRIPTION
The Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index tracks trade by quarter, based on the latest available official data from national agencies. The Index, which is published every three months, assesses the developments in global trade and the relative position of the 23 countries playing the biggest role in the global trade arena. http://www.capgemini.com/services-and-solutions/challenges/supply-chain-management/overview/TRANSCRIPT
Global Trade Flow Index
Q2 - 2010
October 2010
Supported by:
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 2
Global trade growth in Q2 2010 has slowed down and rose by 3.6% q-o-q following a cautious optimism, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America continue to rise on trade growth
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 3
16311698
18031926
2027 2016
1621
1356 1391
1506
16381721
1784
-22,0
-17,0
-12,0
-7,0
-2,0
3,0
8,0
13,0
0
400
800
1.200
1.600
2.000
Q1 09Q4 08Q3 08Q2 08Q1 08Q4 07Q3 07 Q2 10Q1 10
Growth (%)
Volume (billion USD)
TOTAL TRADE- TOP 23 COUNTRIES (BILLION USD)
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09Q2 07
Despite the slowing of trade recovery momentum,
trade volumes continued to grow in Q2 2010,
characterized by easing of the crisis-induced
credit crunch and the rebuilding of inventories in
several economies
Growth in the Eurozone picked up in Q2 2010
with the recovery in construction output and
positive growth in its domestic consumption,
however its trade recovery faced a downside risk
as export volumes declined slightly in all major
European regions
USA total trade increased majorly on account of
6.2% q-o-q rise in its imports with increase in both
oil and non-oil imports, further widening the trade
deficit in Q2 2010
China‟s accelerating export growth rate of 23%
over Q1 2010 has continued to be a major
component supporting its economic growth,
outpacing US
Brazil‟s exports surged 7% q-o-q in Q2 2010 on
account of steady growth in the agriculture
industry and services sector, while Mexico
witnessed a 5.3% q-o-q growth in its exports of
goods because of the big jump in sale of
automotive products to US
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 4
China replaced US at No.1 position, backed by its own domestic consumptionand a huge jump in industrial production along with accelerating exports
Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 5
CountryRANK
Q2-2010
RANK
Q1-2010
China 1 2
United States2 1
Germany 3 3
Japan 4 4
France 5 5
Netherlands 6 6
South Korea 7 9
United Kingdom
8 7
Italy 9 8
Canada 10 11
Belgium 11 10
Mexico 12 14
Russian
Federation13 12
Trade Volume
Score
(A)
Q-o-Q Growth
Score (B)
4.00 4.00
3.77 3.53
2.62 3.33
1.68 3.32
1.26 3.25
1.24 3.35
1.05 3.57
1.07 3.35
1.04 3.35
0.92 3.53
0.90 3.25
0.70 3.56
0.72 3.22
Global Trade
Index Score*
16.00
13.27
9.24
5.78
4.33
4.32
3.80
3.68
3.62
3.21
3.09
2.50
2.43
Foreign Market
Score (C)
Domestic
Market Score
(D)
4.00 4.00
3.36 3.66
3.56 3.69
3.43 3.60
3.37 3.67
3.38 3.73
3.51 3.73
3.32 3.70
3.45 3.65
3.29 3.67
3.39 3.63
3.43 3.71
3.44 3.45
Trade related parameters Market related parameters
Brazil’s decelerating trade growth and India’s poor performance over the lastquarter led to their fall in their global ranking in Q2 2010
Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D))
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 6
CountryRANK
Q2-2010
RANK
Q1-2010
India 14 13
Spain 15 15
Australia 16 17
Brazil 17 16
Poland 18 19
Switzerland 19 18
Sweden 20 20
Austria 21 21
Czech
Republic22 22
Norway 23 23
Trade Volume
Score (A)
Q-o-Q Growth
Score (B)
0.65 3.40
0.61 3.16
0.48 3.76
0.45 3.62
0.41 3.66
0.39 3.31
0.35 3.47
0.34 3.26
0.28 3.25
0.24 3.21
Global Trade
Index Score*
2.19
2.07
1.81
1.62
1.45
1.35
1.23
1.16
0.95
0.81
Foreign Market
Score (C)
Domestic
Market Score
(D)
3.21 3.43
3.30 3.66
3.92 3.64
3.55 3.73
3.45 3.65
3.33 3.69
3.47 3.67
3.45 3.65
3.36 3.69
3.27 3.70
Trade related parameters Market related parameters
Amongst Asian economies, China excelled with its accelerating exports; while Germany emerged as the growth engine of the eurozone in Q2 2010
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2009, Tradingeconomics.com, Standardandpoors.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com.
China
Russia
* As per the revised Q1 2010 figures released by OECD
X - Foreign Market Growth (%)
Y - Domestic Market Growth (%)
Bubble – GDP Q1 2010
X - Foreign Market Growth (%)
Y - Domestic Market Growth (%)
Bubble – GDP Q2 2010
China
2nd Quarter- 2010
US
* As per the Q2 2010 figures released by OECD
1st Quarter- 2010
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 7
India
India’s economy
slumped as both export
and import growth
contracted and despite
stimulus packages like
reduction in excise
duties and service tax,
its domestic
consumption dropped
by 5% q-o-q in Q2 2010
China witnessed an accelerating 23%
q-o-q growth in foreign market trade,
constituting 32% of its GDP; backed by
governments‟ liberalization initiatives
and investments in infrastructure
Japan
-35,0
-30,0
-25,0
-20,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
-15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
-35,0
-30,0
-25,0
-20,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
-15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
AustraliaUS
India Germany’s GDP increased by 2.2%
q-o-q in Q2 2010; supported by growth in
exports (benefiting from the Asian
demand and the depreciation of the
euro) and Investments (rise in
construction spending and an increase in
investment in machinery & equipments)
Germany
Australia
Germany
Australia’s economy grew by 3.5% and a
20% rise in exports were spurred by
soaring exports of iron ore and coals
alongside the robust trade linkages with
Asia
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3’10
• Appendix
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 8
While Global Trade is slowly mending and is expected to grow in the coming quarter, the risk of a constrained growth remains as governments continue withdrawal of stimulus
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 9
Is growth going to be limited with
growing talks on monetary and fiscal
stimulus withdrawals?
With capacity utilization continuing to
increase and inventory restocking
reaching a comfortable level in several
economies, is global trade going to
weaken?
With high unemployment, a weak euro
and the possibility of international
frictions and protectionist pressures,
are trade imbalances in the European
region going to rise?
RISKS TO WATCH OUT FOR
2016
1621
13561391
1506
1638
17211784
-22,0
-17,0
-12,0
-7,0
-2,0
3,0
8,0
13,0
0
400
800
1.200
1.600
2.000
Q1 09Q4 08Q3 08 Q3 10EQ2 10
Growth (%) Volume (billion USD)
TOTAL TRADE (Q2 2010) - TOP 23 COUNTRIES (USD Bn)
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10
Note: Q3 „10 growth estimation is based on trade flow data for July 2010; the actual growth rate might vary depending on total trade figures for the entire quarter.
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Trading Economics, 2010.
If monetary and fiscal stimulus are taken away too soon, when the recovery in trade is still tentative - there is a risk of falling back into recession and deflation.
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 10
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix
• Country Profiles
• The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
• Methodology & Base Data Files
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
11
Country profile – China
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 1251.1 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 10.94%
Population 133.86 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 6000 USD
RANK 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-30
-15
0
15
Growth(%)
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Yuan)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com.
China‟s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially
for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected
to international markets through its vast port facilities
Chinese accelerated export growth rate constituted a major
component supporting China's rapid economic growth of 10.9%
q-o-q in Q2 2010
China witnessed a 19% growth in total trade in Q2 2010 over the
previous quarter, backed by governments‟ liberalization initiatives
and investments in infrastructure
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
12
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-2
008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – United States
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 3643.75 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.89 %
Population 30.72 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 35,645 USD
RANK 2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-25
-10
5
20
Value (billions USD)
Growth(%)Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)
3,400,000
3,450,000
3,500,000
3,550,000
3,600,000
3,650,000
3,700,000
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Value (billions USD)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, Market-melange.com, BEA.gov.
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
13
Q4-2
008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-2
009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good
quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient
custom administration
The US economic growth slowed in Q2 with less than 1% GDP
growth over Q1, as companies invested heavily in equipment
from abroad and the pace of consumer spending eased, raising
concerns about the recovery in the rest of 2010
Though International trade increased in volume, its growth has
slowed down and imports continue to outpace exports leading to
sustained trade deficits
Country profile – Germany
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 794.14 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.26 %
Population 8.23 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 35400 USD
RANK 3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-30
-15
0
15
Growth(%)
570,000
580,000
590,000
600,000
610,000
620,000
630,000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Chinapost.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com.
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-2
008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
14
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Germany‟s GDP increased by 2.2% q-o-q in Q2 2010;
supported by growth in exports and because of an increase in
investment in machinery and equipment & rise in construction
spending
Germany is the world's second-biggest exporter after China
and in Q2 2010, its export of goods & services grew by 9.4%
over previous quarter, benefiting from the Asian demand and
the depreciation of the euro
Country profile – Japan
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 1300.47 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -0.63 %
Population 12.71 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 34000 USD
RANK 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-30
-15
0
15
Growth(%)
112,000,000
114,000,000
116,000,000
118,000,000
120,000,000
122,000,000
124,000,000
126,000,000
128,000,000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Yen)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, News.bbc.co.uk ,”Japan‟s economy”, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
Japan‟s economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas
linked to international trade, but productivity is far lower in
protected areas such as agriculture, distribution, and services.
In Q2, Japan‟s economy has reduced by 0.63% due to deflation
and a rise in the yen
With the reduction in its exports, its total trade also come down
by 1% q-o-q thus threatening an expected export-reliant recovery
15
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-2
008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – France
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 619.28 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.99 %
Population 6.41 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 33200 USD
RANK 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-30
-15
0
15
465,000
470,000
475,000
480,000
485,000
490,000
495,000
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade
Value (billions Euro)
Growth(%)
Domestic & Export Market
Growth Export Market (%)
Growth Domestic market (%)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Value (billions USD)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Economic-research.credit-agricole.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 16
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-2
008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
An increase in consumer spending, a rise in inventories and a
rebound in business investment helped Eurozone's second
largest economy to expand by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010
With revival of private sector investment, French domestic
demand showed strength in Q2 although its net trade went
down due to an increase in energy imports and a drop in car
exports
Country profile – The Netherlands
Description Values
GDP 189.08 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.98 %
Population 1.67 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 40400 USD
RANK 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-30
-15
0
15
Growth(%)
138,000
140,000
142,000
144,000
146,000
148,000
150,000
152,000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)
General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Nfia.co.uk, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 17
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-2
009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-2
010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an
outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of
the world‟s best seaports, enhancing the country‟s connectivity to
rest of the world
The Dutch economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 2010
mainly through increased exports, though the q-o-q growth of
export of goods & services was less as compared to Q1 2010
Growth in consumption and investment showed an increase over
the previous quarter
Country profile – South Korea
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 248.94 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.10 %
Population 4.85 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 27600 USD
RANK 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
-30
-15
0
15
Growth(%)
230,000,000
240,000,000
250,000,000
260,000,000
270,000,000
280,000,000
290,000,000
300,000,000
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Won)
Korean economy grew 2% q-o-q during the second quarter of
2010 due to robust investments, fiscal stimulus and the export
boost from inventory restocking
Even when the domestic market growth slowed down, facility
investment continue to improve and foreign market grew by
approximately 8% making it the world's ninth-largest exporter
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Oecdobserver.org, “Korea‟s economy 2010”, Roubini.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 18
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-20
08
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – United Kingdom
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 465.62 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.74 %
Population 6.11 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 46900 USD
RANK 8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-30
-15
0
15
Growth(%)
330,000
335,000
340,000
345,000
350,000
355,000
360,000
365,000
370,000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions GBP)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Financemarkets.co.uk , Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
The UK economy continued to expand over the second quarter
of 2010 as GDP rose by 1.7%; the increase in output was
mainly due to increases in business services and Finance and
construction sector
With hardly any change in its total trade, UK „s trade deficit remained quite high
19
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-2
010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Italy
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 493.17 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.10 %
Population 5.81 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 31300 USD
RANK 9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
365,000
370,000
375,000
380,000
385,000
390,000
395,000
400,000
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)
Italy‟s GDP rose by 1.1% in Q2 2010, mainly driven by exports,
inventories and investment, especially in machinery, while
domestic demand remained subdued
Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in
value chain using latest processes & technology, but the
structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs
and undermines investor confidence, making the strength of
recovery in 2010 a little uncertain
Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Alibaba.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 20
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-2
008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Canada
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 391.61 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.71 %
Population 3.35 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 39100 USD
RANK 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Growth(%)
360,000
370,000
380,000
390,000
400,000
410,000
420,000
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Canadian Dollar)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com, Roubini.com.
Canada‟s economy growth slowed as GDP grew by just 0.7%
due to weaker spending in the retail and wholesale sectors and
a downturn in the housing market
Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure
as well as highly efficient markets, however it is highly
dependent on the US as a market, with 3/4th of its exports to US
Canadian exports to US fell in Q2 and its trade deficit widened
with increase in its import of petroleum and automobiles
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 21
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-201
0
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Belgium
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 111.38 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.25 %
Population 1.04 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 37400 USD
RANK 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
-30
-15
0
15
Growth(%)
81,000
82,000
83,000
84,000
85,000
86,000
87,000
88,000
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)
Belgium's economy resumed growth in the second quarter
with boost from increase in households private consumption
expenditure
Exports equal around two thirds of its GDP and 80% of Belgium's
trade is with fellow EU member states
With decrease in both Export and Import of goods, its total trade
dropped by 3% q-o-q in Q2 2010
Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010 .
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 22
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-2
009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Mexico
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 256.46 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.18 %
Population 11.12 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 14200 USD
RANK 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
2,700,000
2,800,000
2,900,000
3,000,000
3,100,000
3,200,000
3,300,000
-4
-2
0
2
4
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Peso)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Businessweek.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of
Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more
than 40 countries
Mexico‟s economy rose by 2.18% due to an increase in services
and a climb in the manufacturing and agricultural sector
Mexico‟s domestic and foreign market showed upward trend in
comparison with its Q1 2010 results
Its exports of goods rose to 5.3% because of a big jump in its
sales of automotive products to the United States
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 23
Q4-2
008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-2
009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Russian GDP reduced by a sharper 7% in the second quarter of
2010 due to waning of crisis stimulus spending and continuing
low demand
Russia‟s total trade volume reduced by 4% due to major
reduction in its export of goods, hit by a slump in world demand,
weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports
Country profile – Russian Federation
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 334.62 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -7.73 %
Population 14 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 16100 USD
RANK 13
0
20
40
60
80
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Growth(%)
8,500,000
9,000,000
9,500,000
10,000,000
10,500,000
11,000,000
11,500,000
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Rouble)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Reuters.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 24
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-2
008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – India
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 352.85 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -6 %
Population 116.61 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 2900 USD
RANK 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Rupees)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 25
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-2
009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-2
010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
India‟s GDP fell by 6% q-o-q as both export and import growth
contracted and in spite of strong supply, domestic
consumption dropped to 5% in Q2 2010 over the previous
quarter
Although India‟s economy slumped in Q2, on a yearly basis it
expanded by 9% with services as the major source of
economic growth, accounting for more than half of India's
output further lifted by robust activity in manufacturing
Country profile – Spain
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 336.70 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.16 %
Population 4.05 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 34700 USD
RANK 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
255,000
260,000
265,000
270,000
275,000
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)
The Spanish economy rose by just 0.16% weighed down by
sluggish private consumption, still falling construction
investment and erratic business capital spending as the
government battles to trim a bloated budget
With EU accounting for 70 percent of Spain's exports, the slight
upturn in eurozone along with a weak euro translates into
relatively lesser benefit for spain as compared to other
European economies
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 26
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-20
08
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Australia
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 301.12 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.64 %
Population 2.13 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 38100 USD
RANK 16
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Dollar)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Forexyard.com, World Economic Forum, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
Australia has transparent border administration and transport but
its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition
along with high domestic and foreign market barriers
The economy looked more balanced with a 3.6% q-o-q growth;
with the private sector increasingly taking over the government
stimulus as the engine of growth
Australia‟s 20% q-o-q growth in export of goods was spurred by
soaring exports of iron ore & coal; coupled with robust trade with
Asia
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 27
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-2
008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Brazil
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 499.79 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.36 %
Population 19.87 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 10200 USD
RANK 17
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Real)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Prnewswire.com, XE.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 28
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-2
009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-2
010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Brazil economy continue to grow steadily and its GDP grew by 3.3% due to increase in its export and domestic consumption though cyclical forces and controlled measures to withdraw monetary stimulus slowed the rates
Household spending growth continued to ease and investment lost momentum although government consumption rose sharply as spending swelled ahead of elections in next quarter
Brazil exports surged due to steady growth in the agriculture industry and services sector
Country profile – Poland
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 112.17 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.49 %
Population 3.85 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 17300 USD
RANK 18
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
290,000
300,000
310,000
320,000
330,000
340,000
350,000
360,000
0
1
1
2
2
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Poland)
The Polish economy expanded at a faster pace in Q2 2010 as
compared to Q1 led by investment, consumer spending,
construction and increase in exports
The total trade volume rose by 9% in comparison with Q1 2010
supported by a sharp rise in its export of goods & services
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, mt5.com, Forexyard.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 29
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Switzerland
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 124.23 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.17 %
Population 0.76 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 41800 USD
RANK 19
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
130,000
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Franc)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, World Economic Forum, “Global Enabling Trade”, 2009, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
Switzerland has stable modern market economy with low
unemployment, a highly skilled labor force, and a per capita
GDP among the highest in the world
The Swiss economy continued its growth in the second quarter
of 2010, expanding at 1.2% as companies' investment
spending fuelled growth and both exports and consumer
spending rose
30
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-2
008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Sweden
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 108.07 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.84 %
Population 0.91 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 38100 USD
RANK 20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
720,000
740,000
760,000
780,000
800,000
820,000
840,000
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Krona)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Iesingapore.gov.sg , Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 31
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-2
008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Swedish economy grew by 1.8% in Q2 2010 due to increase in
its domestic demand, consumer spending, inventory
investments and declining unemployment
Its export of goods & services, which make up about half of
Sweden‟s output, expanded by 6% on q-o-q basis, as the
global demand pushed production
Country profile – Austria
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 89.92 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.73 %
Population 0.82 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 40200 USD
RANK 21
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
66,000
67,000
68,000
69,000
70,000
71,000
72,000
-2
-1
0
1
2
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-10
-5
0
5
10
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. XE.com, Chinadaily.com.cn, Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group, “Country Reports: Austria”, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 32
Q4-
2008Q3-2
008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Austria's economy grew 1.7% in Q2; Industrial production rose
strongly from the previous year and the capacity utilization rate
was again over the long- term average, giving significant push
to its economy in the second quarter
Exports and investment were the biggest factors behind the
rise; its exports of goods & services rose by 6% because of the
rising demand from main export destination Germany which
accounts for 1/3rd of its total exports
Country profile – Czech Republic
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 45.71 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.21 %
Population 1.02 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 25900 USD
RANK 22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
880,000
890,000
900,000
910,000
920,000
930,000
940,000
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Koruna)
Inventory replenishment drove the Czech economic upturn in
the second quarter of 2010
The economy returned to positive growth in Q2 2010 on
account of reviving household consumption and the
unexpectedly fast growth spurt in Germany, the country‟s main
trading partner
Being a highly open economy as well as highly export-oriented,
the economy‟s fate is tied to that of the Eurozone
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Roubini.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 33
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-2
009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-20
09Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
Country profile – Norway
Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information
Description Values
GDP 99.82 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.04 %
Population 0.47 Crore
GDP per Capita (2008) 59300 USD
RANK 23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-30
-15
0
15
30
Growth(%)
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Growth(%)
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Growth Domestic market (%)
Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Kroner)
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 34
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009
Q2-
2010Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010Q3-
2009
Q2
2009
Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2
2009Q4-
2008Q3-
2008
Q4-
2009Q2-
2010
Q2-
2008
Q1-
2009Q1-
2010
Q3-
2009
Q2-
2009
The country is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which
accounts for nearly half of its exports
GDP grew by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010, mostly driven by private
sector spending
Economic output was low; struggling due to sluggish external
demand and weak competitiveness
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix
• Country Profiles
• The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
• Methodology & Base Data Files
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
35
While Brazil’s foreign trade levels have increased, its growth rate in export of goods has slowed to 50% of its growth last quarter
Brazil GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market
Brazil’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003.
At current growth levels, Brazil has
crossed 2023 GDP levels as per projections
Brazil‟s foreign trade has been approx. 9-17% of its domestic consumption
over the past decade
US, Germany and
Japan represents more
than 50% of Brazil's
total trade
Change in economic
environment / trade
policies of top trading
partners may impact
Brazil‟s trade growth
Country
USA
Germany
Japan
Korea
France
Netherlands
Mexico
Spain
UK
Canada
36%
15%
9%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
5%
36%
16%
9%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
Q2 2009 Q2 2010
3% 4%
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
36GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
Russia’s total trade volume reduced by 4% q-o-q due to a major reduction in its export of goods, hit by weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports
Russia GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market
Russia’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003.
At current growth levels, Russia has crossed 2011 GDP levels as per projections Russia was worst hit from
crisis amongst the BRIC nations
Russia‟s foreign trade which was approx. half of its domestic consumption
in 2000, is now 1/4th of the domestic consumption and has gradually decreased over the past decade
Germany alone constitutes
1/4th of Russia‟s total trade
and more than 3/4th of its
exports consisting of oil,
natural gas, metals & timber
Change in trade policies of
European Union may impact
Russia‟s trade growth
because of its high
dependence on European
economies
Country
Germany
USA
Netherlands
Turkey
France
Japan
Korea
UK
Spain
Czech
Republic
28%
13%
9%
11%
10%
6%
4%
5%
4%
Q2 2009 Q2 2010
27%
12%
9%
9%
9%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3% 4%
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
37GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
In Q2 2010, India’s growth of export of goods & services fell sharply because of poor performance in certain service sectors
India GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market
India’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003.
At current growth levels, India has
crossed 2013 GDP levels as per projections
India‟s foreign trade ration has been gradually increasing and has reached
approx. 1/4th of its domestic consumption over the past decade
US alone constitutes 1/3th
of India‟s total trade
followed by Germany and
Australia
Gems and jewelry
constituted the single
largest export item,
accounting for 16% of
exports
Country
USA
Germany
Australia
Korea
UK
Japan
France
Netherlands
Spain
Turkey
28%
13%
11%
9%
9%
7%
6%
4%
3%
31%
11%
10%
10%
8%
8.%
5%
3%
3%
Q2 2009 Q2 2010
2% 3%
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
38GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
China’s accelerated export growth rate constituted a major component supporting China's rapid economic growth in Q2 2010
China GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market
At current growth levels, China has
crossed 2015 GDP levels as per projections
China‟s foreign trade has been approx. 7-11% of its domestic
consumption over the past decade
China’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003.
US, Japan and Korea
represent more than
50% of China's total
trade
Change in economic
environment / trade
policies of top trading
partners may impact
China‟s trade growth
Country
USA
Japan
Korea
Germany
Australia
France
Canada
UK
Mexico
Netherlands
30%
19%
12%
10%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
29%
20%
13%
11%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
Q1 2009 Q1 2010
3% 3%
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
39GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix
• Country Profiles
• The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
• Methodology & Base Data Files
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
40
Appendix - Global Trade Index – Methodology and Data Sheets
Trade related parameters
Market related parameters
Global Trade Index
© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 41
Base Data FilesMethodology : Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the Index
Thank you very much for your attention!