Global Population Trends: Shaping The Strategic Future

Nicholas Eberstadt

Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy

American Enterprise Institute

eberstadt@aei.org

The Sixth Herzliya Conference

On the Balance of Israel’s National Security

January 21-24, 2006

Herzliya, Israel

Four Strategically Significant World Population Trends:

• The Global March Into “Sub-Replacement Fertility”

• Sustained Reversals In Health Progress

• Rising Sex Ratios At Birth

• United States ‘Demographic Exceptionalism’

World Total Fertility and PopulationGrowth Rates:

1975-2025 (projected)

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 22 November 2004; 5:48:48 PM.

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Total Fertility Rate

Grow th Rate

Total Fertility Rate of Less Than 2.1: U.S. Census Bureau Projections for the World, 2004

Oceania TFRAustralia 1.76New Zealand 1.79Northern Mariana Islands 1.33

North America TFRBermuda 1.90Canada 1.61Saint Pierre & Miquelon 2.05United States 2.07

Asia TFRBurma 2.08China 1.69Cyprus 1.85Hong Kong S.A.R 0.91Iran 1.88Japan 1.38Lebanon 1.95Macau S.A.R. 0.98Singapore 1.04South Korea 1.25Sri Lanka 1.88Taiwan 1.57Thailand 1.89Turkey 1.98Vietnam 1.97

Latin America TFRAnguilla 1.74

Aruba 1.79

Barbados 1.65

Brazil 1.94

Cayman Islands 1.90

Chile 2.06

Cuba 1.66

Dominica 1.98

Guadeloupe 1.91

Guyana 2.06

Jamaica 1.98

Martinique 1.79

Montserrat 1.79

Netherlands Antilles 2.02

Puerto Rico 1.91

Saint Vincent & the

Grenadines 1.90

Trinidad & Tobago 1.77

British Virgin Islands 1.72

Uruguay 1.96

Africa TFRAlgeria 2.04

Mauritius 1.97

Saint Helena 1.54

Seychelles 1.77

Tunisia 1.79

W. Europe TFRAndorra 1.28

Austria 1.35

Belgium 1.64

Denmark 1.74

Finland 1.73

France 1.85

Germany 1.38

Gibraltar 1.65

Greece 1.32

Guernsey 1.38

Iceland 1.93

Ireland 1.87

Italy 1.27

Jersey 1.57

Liechtenstein 1.51

Luxembourg 1.79

Malta 1.49

Isle of Man 1.65

Monaco 1.76

Netherlands 1.66

Norway 1.78

Portugal 1.46

San Marino 1.32

Spain 1.27

Sweden 1.66

Switzerland 1.42

United Kingdom 1.66

E. Europe TFRAlbania 2.05

Bosnia &

Herzegovina 1.71

Bulgaria 1.37

Croatia 1.39

Czech Republic 1.18

Hungary 1.31

Macedonia 1.56

Poland 1.38

Romania 1.35

Slovakia 1.31

Slovenia 1.23

Serbia &

Montenegro 1.56

C.I.S. TFRArmenia 1.31

Belarus 1.36

Georgia 1.40

Kazakhstan 1.90

Moldova 1.78

Russia 1.26

Ukraine 1.37

Baltics TFREstonia 1.39

Latvia 1.25

Lithuania 1.17

Source: U.S. Census Bureau International DatabaseAvailable online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, accessed 11/18/04

Own-children estimates of total fertility rates for Iran: 1972-2000

Source: Figures calculated by the author using the own-children method applied to the 1986 and 1996 censuses, and the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey. Figure Selected from “Recent changes and the future of fertility in Iran,” Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations.

Population Structure: China, 2000 vs. 2025 (projected)

80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000

0-4

15-19

30-34

45-49

60-64

75-79

90-94

2025200020252000

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 25 April 2003; 2:57:12 PM.

China and the United States: Median Age, 1970-2025

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Statistics Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 24 April 2003, 2:36:38 PM.

18

23

28

33

38

China

U.S.

Per Capita GDP vs. Percent Population Ages 65+: Russia, Europe, United States, and China 1950-2000

Note: Europe data for 13 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K.

Sources: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: T http://esa.un.org/unpp, 25 April 2003; Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. (Development Centre Studies, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Paris, 2003), Tables 2c, 3c and 7c; U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Database, available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbacc.html, accessed 8/5/04.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Percentage of Population 65+

Per

Cap

ita G

DP

(1990 In

tern

ati

on

al G

eary

-Kh

am

is D

ollars

)

Russia 1995/2000

Europe

United States

China

Japan

Percentage 65+: Russia, 2025 (projected)

Percentage 65+: China, 2025 (projected)

Coverage and Actuarial Balances of Current Public Pension System: USA, Japan, China (percent)

Coverage Net Present Value Unfunded Liabilities vs. GDP

USA 2004 871 32

Japan 2001 c. 1002 60-703

China 2003 c.16 125-150

Notes: 1. Proportion of fully insured persons 20+ in OASDI, 2003. 2. Mandatory participation of persons 20+ in basic plan. 3. Estimates for burden post-2000 round of reforms.

Sources: China: Loraine A. West and Daniel Goodkind, “Population Aging and Social Safety Nets in China: Factors and Trends Affecting Policy Trade-Offs.” U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, April 2003 (unpublished paper); Japan: Hamid Faruqee and Martin Muehleiser, “Population Aging in Japan: Demographic and Fiscal Sustainability,” IMF Working Paper WP/01/40, April 2001, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp0140.pdf USA: Derived from U.S. Social Security Administration, Annual Statistical Supplement 2003 (March 2004), Table 4.c5, http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/supplement/2003/4c.pdf 2004 OASDI Trustees Report (March 24, 2004), Table VI.F5 and Chapter II.D, http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR04/

Percentage of Age-60 Chinese Women with No Born Sons by Year of Her 60th Birthday: Illustrative Calculation

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1989-1990

1991-1995

1996-2000

2001-2005

2006-2010

2011-2015

2016-2020

2025

Notes: Calculations are illustrative, based upon simplifying assumptions: 1. Reported parity distributions in 1990 census are accurate; 2. SRB as in previous graphic; 3. SRB not parity-specific; 4. Childbearing completed by age 35 for the 2025 cohort of 60-year old women; 5) Posits the following distribution of childbearing for the 2025 cohort of 60-year-old women: no children, 3%; one child, 25%; two children, 65%; three or more children, 7%.

Sources:Derived from Feeney et. al. 1993, op cit; China National Bureau of Statistics 2002, op cit.

Countries facing long-term decline in life expectancy at birth (1990 vs. 2010): U.S. Census Bureau Current Projections

Sub-Saharan Africa

1990 2010Angola 36.7 35.0

Benin 49.1 47.9

Botswana 66.8 34.1

Burkina Faso 46.8 43.5

Cameroon 50.1 47.9

Central African Rep. 48.5 41.0

Congo 52.6 47.0

Djibouti 43.8 43.4

Eritrea 51.8 48.9

Ethiopia 45.6 40.0

Gabon 58.1 52.9

Ghana 56.3 55.6

Kenya 60.3 53.5

Lesotho 44.5 36.5

Malawi 43.3 36.9

Mozambique 45.3 38.5

Namibia 63.7 43.3

So. Africa 63.2 48.8

Swaziland 65.1 33.0

Tanzania 50.0 47.2

Togo 56.6 50.7

Zambia 44.3 41.2

Zimbabwe 60.6 34.6

Latin America & Caribbean 1990 2010

Bahamas 67.2 65.8

Barbados 73.1 71.2

Dominican Rep. 70.0 66.7

Grenada 66.9 66.3

Honduras 67.5 62.2

Panama 72.9 72.1

Trinidad & Tobago 69.5 64.5

Commonwealth of Independent States

1990 2010Azerbaijan 68.4 66.0

Belarus 70.9 70.6

Russia 68.5 67.0

Tajikistan 67.2 66.5

Turkmenistan 64.7 63.7

Ukraine 69.7 68.5

Uzbekistan 67.4 66.2

Oceania 1990 2010Nauru 66.7 64.6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau International DatabaseAvailable online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, accessed 11/18/04

Male Death Rates: France in World War II vs. Zimbabwe today

Sources:http://gfeeney.com/pubs/2001-aids-zimbabwe/table1.xls accessed June 7, 2004.

htttp://www.demog.berkeley.edu/wilmoth/mortality/France/LifeTables/fmper.lt.5x1.new accessed June 7, 2004.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54

Ages

De

ath

s p

er

1,0

00

Ma

les

France 1939

France 1944

Zimbabwe 1986

Zimbabwe 1997

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

020406080100120140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Males Females

Projected population structure in 2020

Deficits due to AIDS

Population (thousands)

Ag

e in

yea

rs

Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000

Projected population structure with and Projected population structure with and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020

Projected Total Population: Russia, 2000-2025

120000

125000

130000

135000

140000

145000

150000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

To

tal

Po

pu

lati

on

(T

ho

usan

ds)

UN ProjectionsCensus Projections

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Russian Population: 1960-2003

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

1960 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

Births Deaths Natural Increase

Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2002), Table 2.1

Source for 2002 figures: Goskomstat, as reported by ITAR-TASS, Feb 21, 2003

Life Expectancy at Birth1958-59, 1961-62, 1963-64, 1965-2003

55

60

65

70

75

1958

-59

1961

-62

1963

-64

1965

-66

1966

-67

1967

-68

1968

-69

1969

-70

1970

-71

1971

-72

1972

-73

1973

-74

1974

-75

1975

-76

1976

-77

1977

-78

1978

-79

1979

-80

1980

-81

1981

-82

1982

-83

1983

-84

1984

-85

1985

-86

1986

-87

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

at B

irth

(yea

rs)

Female

Male

Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2003, Table 2.6; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 1994, Table 2.5

"More Aged Than Their Years":Mortality At Age 30 for Men In Selected Post-Socalist Countries

Compared With The Dutch Male Mortality Schedule, c. 2003

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Age

Dutch male survival schedule

Bulgarian male at age 30

Czech Republic male at age 30

East German male at age 30

Hungarian male at age 30

Latvian male at age 30

Lithuanian male at age 30

Russian male at age 30

"Positive Health Momentum":Male Mortality in Japan by birth cohort 1920-1969

0.1

1

10

10020 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65

Age

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1969

"Negative Health Momentum":Male Mortality in Russia by birth cohorts 1920-1970

0

1

10

10020 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65

Ages

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

Health Equals Wealth:Worldwide LE vs. PPP Per Capita GDP, 2003

y = 46.101e0.0723x

R2 = 0.6519100

1000

10000

100000

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

China: Sex Ratio at Birth by Province, 2000

Source: Tabulation on the 2000 Population Census of the People's Republic of China, Vols. I & III, Population Census Office under the State Council & Department of Population, Science, and Technology Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics of China (China Statistics Press: Hong Kong, 2001), Table 6.1.

90

100

110

120

130

140

Province

Sex R

atio

at B

irth

(Male

s p

er

100 F

em

ale

s)

90

100

110

120

130

140

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Female Illiteracy Rate (percent)

Sex

Rat

io, C

hild

ren

Age

s 1-

4

(mal

es p

er 1

00 fem

ales

)

China: Sex Ratio (Children Ages 1-4) vs.

Female Illiteracy Rate by Province, 2000

Sex Ratio at Birth vs. GDP per Capita: China, 1953-1999

104106108110112114116118120122

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500GDP per Capita

Sex

Rat

io GDP vs. SR 0-4

GDP vs. SRB

INDIA: Sex Ratio Among Children Under Age 7By State, 2001

100 105 110 115 120 125 130

Punjab Haryana

ChandigarghDelhi

GujaratHimachal Pradesh

UttaranchalRajasthan

Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Daman & Diu

Madhya Pradesh Goa

Jammu & KashmirBihar

Tamil Nadu Karnataka

Orissa Pondicherry

Manipur Arunachal Pradesh

Kerala West Bengal

Andhra PradeshAssam

Andaman & NicobarJharkhand

MizoramDadra & Nagar Haveli

Lakshadw eepTripura

Nagaland Meghalaya Chhatisgarh

Sikkim

Sta

te

Sex Ratio Among Children Under Age 7 (Males per 100 Females)

Population Structure:EU 15, 2000 vs. 2025 (projected)

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census International Database, available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbacc.html, accessed 9/23/04.

20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000

0- 4

10- 14

20- 24

30- 34

40- 44

50- 54

60- 64

70- 74

80+

2025

2000

Male Female

Population Structure:USA, 2000 vs. 2025 (projected)

15000000 10000000 5000000 0 5000000 10000000 15000000

0- 4

10- 14

20- 24

30- 34

40- 44

50- 54

60- 64

70- 74

80+

2025

2000

Male Female

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census International Database, available online at http://w w w .census.gov/ipc/w w w /idbacc.html, accessed 9/23/04.

Total Fertility Rate: United States vs. Europe

Sources: Institut National d'etudes demographiques, "Population en chiffres," http://www.ined.fr/population-en-chiffres/pays-developpes/index.html, accessed 8/4/04; National Vital Statistics Report: Vol 52, No. 19 May 10, 2004.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Tota

l Fer

tility

Rat

e

US TFRs 2000 Eur TFRs 2000 EU TFRs 2000 Russia

US “Demographic Exceptionalism”:TFRs, Canada vs. USA, 1975-2001

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

QuebecCanadaU.S.

Source: Statistics Canada Current Demographic Analysis “Fertility in Canada” 1984; Demographic Situation 1998-1999. U.S. National Vital Statistics Report Vol. 51 No.2 Dec. 2002. U.S. White includes Hispanics. Note: Note: Figure selected from Barbara Boyle Torrey’s PowerPoint presentation “A Demographic Divergence? Canada and the United States” (no date)

American Exceptionalism: Outlier Attitudes, Part I

American Exceptionalism: Outlier Attitudes, Part II

American Exceptionalism: Outlier Attitudes, Part III

Estimated and Projected Proportion of World Population: United States, Western Europe, and Russia, 1950-2050

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Year

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f Wo

rld

Po

pu

latio

n (

Pe

rce

nt)

United States Western Europe Russia