Global Population Aging and Human Capital

Futures

Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.

Center on Aging NORC and the University of Chicago

Chicago, Illinois, USA

Alarmists believe that our planet may become a global nursing

home

Japan example shows the future for other countries

China shows population aging

Indian population also started to age

United States in 2010

Demographic Determinants of Population Aging

Declining fertility Increasing longevity Out-migration of youth

Declining fertility

Demographic studies demonstrated that the declining fertility (birth) rates has the greatest role in causing population aging

Population aging happens because the declining fertility (birth) rates make recent cohorts smaller than the preceding ones, thus tilting the age distribution towards older ages.

World fertility rate is declining

Sourse: Economist,

2009

Total fertility rates in European countries

In developing countries (with exception of Africa) fertility declines even faster

In wealthy Asian countries the problem of low fertility is exacerbated by

delaying marriage of women

Many women in wealthy Asian countries remain single

Workforce participation in combination with cultural traditions result in

delaying marriage among Asian women

Poor countries have higher fertility

Consequences for Population Growth

Increasing longevity The increase in life expectancy has

two components, acting on population aging in the opposite directions.

The first component is the mortality decline among infants, children and relatively young persons, having age below the population mean. This component of mortality decline is acting against population aging, because its effects (saving young lives) are similar to effects of increased fertility

Increasing longevity (2) The second component of the increase in

life expectancy is related to a new trend of mortality decline, which had emerged after the 1950s in the developed countries -- an accelerating decrease in mortality rates among the oldest-old (85+ years), and the oldest-old women in particular

This second component of mortality decline, which is concentrated in older age groups, is becoming an important determinant of population aging (women in particular) in industrialized countries (population aging “from the bottom”).

Life expectancy at age 65, 2003-2005

10 15 20 25

BelarusLatvia

LithuaniaMoldova

RussiaUSA

UkraineFranceEstonia

Life expectancy at 65, years

Men Women

The role of immigration

Immigration usually slows down population aging, because immigrants tend to be younger.

In Russia immigration during the 1990s partially alleviated the effects of population aging

The role of emigration

Emigration of working-age adults accelerates population aging, as it is observed now in many Eastern European countries

Socio-demographic processes that accompany population

aging

Feminization of population aging

The fact that in most nations females have lower mortality than males in every age group results in “feminization” of population aging.

In 2005 in Russia, there were 16.8 million older women and 8.4 million older men aged 60 and over, or a sex ratio of 50 men for every 100 women.

In 2007 in the Eastern Europe this ratio was equal to 57 men to 100 women and 69 men per 100 women in Europe.

Increasing load on social welfare system

The potential support that elderly may receive from the working population can be measured by the potential support ratio: the ratio of population aged 15-64 years to that aged 65 years and over

The ratio is measured as an inverse of age-old dependency ratio

Demographic load and the concept of

demographic dividend

Child and Elderly Dependency Ratios

The child dependency ratio is equal to the number of individuals aged below 15 divided by the number of individuals aged 15 to 64, expressed as a percentage.

The elderly dependency ratio is equal to the number of individuals aged 64 and above divided by the number of individuals aged 15 to 64, expressed as a percentage.

Total dependency ratio: Europe, Russia, USA, and

Japan

Demographic dividend The demographic dividend (the term

coined by David Bloom from the Harvard school of Public Health) is a demographic stimulus to economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population.

This usually occurs late in the demographic transition when the fertility rate falls and the youth dependency ratio declines.

During this demographic window of opportunity, output per capita may rise.

Demographic dividend in the world due to decline of total

dependency ratio

For China demographic dividend is over

For India demographic dividend is at its beginning

Positive attitude to aged people is the key to successful adaptation to the

population aging