global mobile connections forecast, 2012 - 2017 · 2016-05-17 · connections over the next 5 years...

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Global Mobile Connections Forecast, 2012 - 2017

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Published First Quarter, 2013 Version 1.0

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 1 Figure A: Global Connections by Technology Generation, 2012-2017 ................................... 1

Methodology .................................................................................................................. 4

Introduction .................................................................................................................... 5

Worldwide Overview ...................................................................................................... 7 Table 1: Worldwide Connections, Population, and Penetration, 2012-2017 (000) ................ 7 Figure 1: Worldwide Connections and Population, 2012-2017 (000) .................................... 7 Table 2: Connections by Region, 2012-2017 (000) ................................................................ 8 Figure 2: Connections by Region, 2012-2017 (000) .............................................................. 9 Figure 2A: Share of Connections by Region, 2012-2017 (000)............................................... 9 Table 3: Worldwide Connections by Technology Generation, 2012-2017 (000) .................. 10 Figure 3: Worldwide Connections by Technology Generation, 2012-2017 (000) ................. 10 Table 4: Worldwide Connection by Technology, 2012-2017 (000) ...................................... 11 Figure 4: Worldwide Connections by Technology, 2012-2017 (000) ................................... 12

Definitions .................................................................................................................... 13 General ................................................................................................................................. 13 Device Types ......................................................................................................................... 13 Services ................................................................................................................................. 14 Network Technology............................................................................................................. 15 Regions ................................................................................................................................. 19

About iGR ..................................................................................................................... 20 Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................. 20

Distribution of this report outside of your company or organization is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2013 iGillottResearch Inc.

1

Executive Summary

Worldwide wireless connections are growing briskly and will surpass 6 billion in 2013 to reach nearly 7.5 billion in 2017. In 2012, 2G connections comprised about 71 percent of worldwide mobile connections.

However, 2G connections are in decline and will fall by more than 2.8 billion over the next 5 years as 3G connections become predominant with about 63 percent of all connections in 2017. Fourth generation LTE grows rapidly over the next few years, reaching nearly 19 percent of all connections by 2017. Figure A shows the overall trend in connections by technology generation. Note that the steep decline in 2G technologies starts to slow in 2015.

Figure A: Global Connections by Technology Generation, 2012-2017

Source: iGR, 2013

Mobile WiMax has largely been occluded by LTE deployments with some of the major WiMax proponents (Yota, Clearwire, Sprint) shifting to LTE in the last several years. The technology will remain in niche markets and will steadily wane throughout the forecast period.

The following is a brief overview of the major trends in each geographic region:

0%

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

4G

3G

2G


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North America: Will gain connections steadily, adding more than 26 million connections over the next 5 years and reaching 98 percent penetration in 2017. Currently, a majority of North American connections still use 3G technologies (EV-DO and UMTS/HSPA), but iGR expects LTE-based devices to rapidly penetrate the market with more than 66 million LTE connections by year-end 2013. North America is a forerunner of 4G technologies, but that status will fade as LTE rollouts continue across the globe.

Latin America: Expanding coverage, escalating wireless competition, and increased device adoption will propel net connection growth of 56 million over the forecast period in the region. While 2G connections currently account for the majority of all mobile connections in Latin America, this share will dramatically decrease as 3G connections increase at a compounded annual rate of 25 percent between 2012 and 2017. LTE in Latin America will is off to a slow start relative to other regions, but growth will accelerate in the 2015 timeframe as more LTE networks are available and the cost of devices has dropped because of the fast pace of adoption in other regions.

Europe: Mobile connections are likely to experience low growth, increasing by about 16 million over the next 5 years to nearly 1.1 billion in 2017. Europe currently has exceptionally high penetration, 143 percent at the end of 2012, that will rise to 145 percent in 2017. The bulk of Europe’s connections are currently 2G, but 3G connections will experience significant growth over the forecast period. Europe substantially lags in LTE deployments relative to the U.S., Asia-Pacific and Japan. iGR does anticipate substantial LTE growth in Europe, but a great deal depends on the macroeconomic environment in that region.

Middle East and Africa: Currently this region has the lowest wireless penetration of all, but is also the world’s fastest growing wireless region. The Middle East and Africa will surpass Europe in 2014 to become the world’s second largest region by connections (behind Asia-Pacific). Though the region’s wireless market will be dominated by 2G connections throughout the forecast period, 3G-market share will begin to grow during 2014. Total 3G connections in this region will exceed 2G connection in 2016. 4G adoption will be low and largely limited to the Arabian Peninsula and South Africa, though there are some other deployments in other African countries.

Asia-Pacific: Mobile connections in this region will swell at a compounded annual rate of 5.4 percent over the forecast period, increasing to 3.73 billion in 2017. The abundance of emerging markets in the region will allow mobile penetration in Asia-Pacific to increase by 19 percent over the next 5 years. The market share of 2G mobile technologies will fall over the period as 3G connections rise sharply to 2.3 billion connections in 2016. The majority of the Asia-Pacific region will not begin significant 4G deployment until late 2013 – and more likely later.


3

Japan: The population of Japan will shrink by nearly 1 million between 2012 and the end of 2017, but mobile connections will grow by 12 million during the period, driving Japan to a 112 percent penetration rate in 2017. The large appetite for mobile web and media among Japanese consumers quickly promoted the adoption of 3G technologies that dominate the region. Second generation connections will lose share through 2013 and will disappear completely by the end of 2014. Fourth generation connections will increase to nearly 54 million in 2017, claiming a 38 percent market share (LTE and WiMax).


4

Methodology

This report provides an overview of the worldwide mobile connection market. Population and demographic data used in formulating the forecast was primarily drawn from 5the United Nations, the U.S. Census Bureau International program, and various other international census bureaus.

Sources of cellular connection and subscriber information also include information found on wireless operators’ Internet sites, regulatory filings, annual results, and quarterly results. In addition, information was gathered from industry organizations including the CTIA, the GSM Association, the CDMA Development Group and 4G Americas. When available, data from relevant government agencies around the globe was used.

Information was also gathered from respectable news sources, business information websites and websites related solely to wireless coverage. Data generated in this report was compared to information published by various wireless vendors. Information from infrastructure providers was also collected and used appropriately.


5

Introduction

In order to correctly interpret this forecast, it is important clarify the terminology and scope that will be used in the report. Please be aware of the following:

This forecast estimates mobile connections. Connections can be for many types of mobile devices such as mobile phones, smartphones, tablets, mobile hotspots, portable modems, and embedded modems. There are more connections than there are actual people / subscribers because some people have more than one mobile device and/or more than one subscription to a wireless service.

This forecasts deals exclusively with mobile connections, not fixed wireless connections. As a result, 802.16d WiMax connections are not included in estimates, but 802.16e WiMax connections are. However, 802.16e connections that are fixed (such as stationary home modems) are also counted since the device makes use of mobile air interface technology.

Secondly, a given device may have support for multiple air interface technologies (such as GSM, EDGE, HSPA and LTE). However, when connections are broken out by technology, a connection is categorized only by the most advanced air interface technology used in the device (LTE in the above example).

This forecast does not include machine-to-machine (M2M) connections.

All regions used in this report are roughly based on traditional geographic conventions. There are no countries that are divided between multiple regions or that are a member of multiple regions.

Asia-Pacific: All countries in East Asia, South Asia, Oceania, and the Pacific. Afghanistan and Pakistan, sometimes considered parts of the Middle East, are also part of the region. Other exceptions are Russia (which is part of Europe) and Japan (which is its own region).

Europe: All countries on the continent of Europe. Additionally the following transcontinental and Western Asia countries are part of the Europe region: Cyprus, Russia, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Japan: the nation of Japan.

Latin America: All countries in Central America (including Mexico), the Caribbean, and South America.

Middle East and Africa: All countries in Africa and the Middle East. Additionally, the following Central Asian countries are a part of the region: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.


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Some countries traditionally considered to be part of the Middle East region are a categorized under other regions. Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are a part of the Europe region. Afghanistan and Pakistan are a part of the Asia-Pacific region.

North America: The United States and Canada.

Finally, readers may find it necessary to familiarize themselves with the definitions outlined in the definitions section which defines how iGR uses the various terms common to the wireless industry are used in this report.


7

Worldwide Overview

Looking at the world’s mobile connection data holistically allows one to see the overarching patterns that will play out over the next five years and which markets will see the most growth. The worldwide population is expected to continue its steady growth over the next five years surpassing 7.4 billion people in 2017.

As the following table shows, worldwide penetration will rise at an annually compounded rate of 4.86 percent over the next five years from 83.5 percent in 2012 to 100.4 percent in 2017.

Table 1: Worldwide Connections, Population, and Penetration, 2012-2017 (000)

World (000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR

Population 7,051,454 7,128,047 7,204,663 7,280,882 7,357,443 7,434,367 1.06%

Connections 5,887,430 6,192,341 6,502,381 6,818,914 7,136,963 7,462,944 4.86%

Penetration 83.5% 86.9% 90.3% 93.7% 97.0% 100.4%

Source: iGR, 2013

Worldwide wireless connections are growing briskly and will surpass 6 billion connections in 2013 to reach nearly 7.5 billion in 2016 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Worldwide Connections and Population, 2012-2017 (000)

Source: iGR, 2013

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In 2012, Asia-Pacific lead in total connections with nearly 2.9 billion connections, followed by Europe with nearly 1.1 billion. However, the Middle East and Africa will surpass Europe in total connections in 2014 and reach 1.5 billion connections in 2017.

The Middle East and Africa is also the fastest growing region, with a compounded annual growth rate of 10 percent over the forecast period. Asia-Pacific follows with a compounded annual growth rate of 5.4 percent and Latin America comes in next at 2 percent (Table 2). Note that penetration is relatively high (depending on the country), so the growth is starting from a higher base – as opposed to the MEA and Asia-Pac which have relatively low penetration rates.

Table 2: Connections by Region, 2012-2017 (000)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR

North America 331,076 337,160 342,739 347,887 352,812 357,403 1.54%

Latin America 539,892 553,443 565,730 576,479 586,279 596,245 2.01%

Europe 1,082,192 1,087,171 1,089,952 1,091,796 1,095,156 1,098,480 0.30%

Middle East & Africa 937,944 1,044,428 1,159,402 1,283,896 1,410,721 1,540,548 10.43%

Asia-Pac 2,866,064 3,036,882 3,208,769 3,380,759 3,551,826 3,727,996 5.40%

Japan 130,261 133,257 135,789 138,097 140,169 142,271 1.78%

Total 5,887,430 6,192,341 6,502,381 6,818,914 7,136,963 7,462,944 4.86%

Source: iGR, 2013

As the following figures illustrate, the Asia-Pacific region currently has the largest share of connections with 48.7 percent of all connections, a share that will grow to 50 percent in 2017. The only other region to grows it share of connections over the forecast period will be the Middle East and Africa, which will increase its share from 15.9 percent in 2012 to 20.6 percent in 2017.

Although all other regions will add total connections each year of the forecast, they will also slightly lose worldwide connection share to these two quickly growing regions.


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Figure 2: Connections by Region, 2012-2017 (000)

Source: iGR, 2013

Figure 2A: Share of Connections by Region, 2012-2017 (000)

Source: iGR, 2013

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Japan

Asia-Pac

Middle East & Africa

Europe

Latin America

North America

5.6% 5.4% 5.3% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8%

9.2% 8.9% 8.7% 8.5% 8.2% 8.0%

18.4% 17.6% 16.8% 16.0% 15.3% 14.7%

15.9% 16.9% 17.8% 18.8% 19.8% 20.6%

48.7% 49.0% 49.3% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%

2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9%

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Asia-Pac

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Latin America

North America


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In 2012, 2G connections comprised 71 percent of all mobile connections. However, 2G connections are in decline and will fall over the next 5 years as 3G connections become predominant. 3G connections will comprise nearly 63 percent of all cellular connections in 2017.

Table 3: Worldwide Connections by Technology Generation, 2012-2017 (000)

By Tech Gen (000)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR

2G 4,203,212

3,838,537

2,856,997

2,060,865

1,656,144

1,387,171

-19.89%

3G 1,609,342

2,197,413

3,317,668

4,157,882

4,505,493

4,677,216

23.78%

4G 74,876 156,391 327,716 613,690 982,430 1,398,557

79.58%

Total 5,887,430

6,192,341

6,502,381

6,832,437

7,144,067

7,462,944

4.86%

Source: iGR, 2013

Although fourth generation (4G) technologies – which effectively means LTE of either type (TDD or FDD) as Mobile WiMax is in decline – are still in their early stages, but will see drastic growth and reach 1.39 billion connections in 2017 (Figure 3). That is about 18.7 percent of all connections over the forecast.

Figure 3: Worldwide Connections by Technology Generation, 2012-2017 (000)

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4G

3G

2G


11

Source: iGR, 2013

CDMA 1X and EV-DO connections are in decline worldwide, although both technologies will see have significant bases over the forecast period. 1X has already peaked (at 578 million in 2012); EV-DO will peak in 2013 with about 209 million subscribers and then it will slowly decline over the forecast. (Table 4 and Figure 4).

Table 4: Worldwide Connection by Technology, 2012-2017 (000)

By Tech (000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR

PHS 1,693 533 - - - - -100.00%

iDEN 17,780 14,086 10,028 5,938 4,690 4,174 -25.16%

1X 578,354 481,177 350,457 268,709 196,323 165,284 -22.16%

EV-DO 196,041 209,375 201,100 184,850 163,512 130,551 -7.81%

GSM 522,444 365,232 152,508 88,877 62,169 57,870 -35.60%

GRPS/EDGE 3,082,940 2,977,509 2,344,004 1,697,342 1,392,962 1,159,844 -17.76%

UMTS/HSPA 1,413,301 1,988,037 3,116,569 3,973,033 4,341,981 4,546,665 26.33%

LTE 56,282 137,999 311,523 602,256 974,312 1,392,961 89.98%

Mobile WiMax 18,594 18,392 16,193 11,434 8,118 5,596 -21.35%

Total 5,887,430 6,192,341 6,502,381 6,832,437 7,144,067 7,462,944 4.86%

Source: iGR, 2013

GSM and GPRS/EDGE, which collectively tower above other technologies in adoption with about 3.6 billion connections in 2012, will decline over the next 5 years to reach about 1.3 billion connections in 2017. UMTS/HSPA connections will nearly quintuple over the next 5 years to about 4.5 billion connections in 2017, surpassing GSM and GPRS/EDGE as the leading technology in 2014 (Figure 4).


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Figure 4: Worldwide Connections by Technology, 2012-2017 (000)

Source: iGR, 2013

Although LTE connections only numbered 56 million at the end 2012, this number will increase to 1.4 billion by 2017. Mobile WiMax had a significant head start on LTE in 2011 (and earlier), but the world’s largest operators have all chosen to deploy LTE, paving the way for LTE to become the dominant 4G technology.

LTE connections have already surpassed Mobile WiMax connections in 2012. Mobile WiMax connections will decline throughout the forecast period to about 5.6 million in 2017.

Connections using a handful of less adopted technologies including PHS, PDC, TDMA, and iDEN have an extremely small share of worldwide connections and have largely fallen off this revised forecast. By 2016, none of them will still be in use except iDEN, which will only have 4.2 million connections worldwide (Table 3). iDEN use will likely persist in Latin America and the Middle East.

and Figure 22).

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PHS

PDC

TDMA

iDEN

cdmaOne

1X

EV-DO

GSM

GRPS/EDGE

UMTS/HSPA

LTE

Mobile WiMax


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Definitions

General

ARPU (Average Revenue Per User): The average amount of money a subscriber spends each month on their wireless service.

CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate): A formula used to calculate the growth rate over a period of time.

Churn: The percent of subscribers who discontinue wireless usage with the carrier in a given month.

CPGA (Cost Per Gross Addition): The average marketing, handset subsidy, and other costs incurred by an operator to acquire a new subscriber.

Penetration: The percentage of a country or region’s population that has adopted a given technology or service.

Postpaid: The traditional method of service billing where the customer receives a bill at the end of the month detailing what they owe for the month’s usage. Postpaid plans are generally packaged with service contracts that provide phone subsidies.

Prepaid: A method of paying for wireless service prior to use, either by purchasing a bucket of usage at the beginning of the month or drawing from an account with stored value on a per usage basis. Prepaid plans generally forgo service contracts or credit checks and are unlikely to provide phone subsidies.

Device Types

Embedded Modem: A modem that is internally embedded in a device to give the device mobile broadband access. Most laptops and netbooks can be configured to come with embedded modems.

Ereader: Ereaders are portable devices specifically designed for reading digital books, newspapers, magazines, and other literary content. Though ereaders may perform a variety of functions, their focus on reading differentiates them from other devices. Examples include the Amazon Kindle, the Sony Reader, and the Barnes & Noble Nook.

Feature Phone: A conventional cellular phone for calls, SMS, and other simple tasks with an ordinary, 10-digit keypad and, usually, a camera.

Netbook: A highly portable laptop that is generally smaller, lighter, cheaper, and more energy efficient than a laptop, at the expense of processing power. Resultantly, many netbooks use legacy or specialized operating systems, such as Windows XP, Windows 7 Starter Edition, or custom Linux distributions. Some netbooks are subsidized when sold in conjunction with 3G mobile broadband service contracts.


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Portable Modem: A modem packaged in a portable form such as a USB Dongle or ExpressCard that can be used to give compatible devices mobile broadband access.

Smartphone: A cellular phone that uses a recognizable operating system with an advanced web browser and the capability to install third-party applications. Common smartphone operating systems include Apple’s iOS, RIM’s BlackBerry OS, Palm’s webOS, Google’s Android, Microsoft’s Windows Mobile, and Nokia’s Symbian Platform.

Tablet: A portable computing device that, unlike laptops or netbooks, uses a touch screen as its primary method of input, not a mouse and keyboard. Tablets are generally larger than smartphones, but smaller than laptops. One examples of a tablet is Apple’s iPad.

Texting Phone: Similar to a feature phone, except has a full QWERTY keyboard, virtual or physical, for convenient messaging. Texting phones often have support for email, some form of web access, and playing music.

Services

IM (Instant Messaging): a form of live, text based communication between two or more users. A plethora of IM services exist and two users generally must be using the same service in order to chat. Popular IM services include AOL IM (AIM), Yahoo! Messenger, Google Talk (GTalk/GChat), and MSN Messenger.

IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem): a framework originally developed by the 3GPP for delivering multimedia services over an all-IP network, such as voice calling, messaging, video calling, IP TV, or IP radio.

MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service): an improved version of the popular SMS that allows for the inclusion of larger amounts of text, images, audio, and even video.

NFC (Near Field Communications): a high frequency wireless technology used at extremely short range. NFC is often implemented in wallet style cards (such as credit, identification, or mass transit cards) as an alternative to magnetic strips, allowing users to make so called “blink” transactions where their card is held in front of a card reader instead of being slid through it. NFC chips can also be embedded in mobile devices to allow the device to make blink transactions.

SMS (Short Message Service): often referred to as text messaging or simply “texting,” SMS is a text based communication service used to send short messages (generally under 160 characters in length) between mobile phones.

VoIP (Voice over IP): a term used to describe any service that provides voice communications over a network with IP-based architecture. This could refer to services such as Skype, which provide voice calling over the Internet’s IP network, or a voice service for a carrier that is being delivered over an all-IP mobile network.


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Network Technology

1G (First Generation): a generic term to describe analog mobile telecommunications technologies, such as AMPS (Advanced Mobile Phone System) and TACS (Total Access Communication System).

1X: shorthand for CDMA2000 1X (also known as IS-2000), a 2.5G, CDMA based technology developed by Qualcomm that builds on cdmaOne and is capable of peak data rates of 153 Kbit/s. 1X can be upgraded to 1X Advanced, which increases voice and data capacity.

2.5G: a term used to describe to mobile communications technologies evolved from 2G technologies that served as a transitional step to 3G networks, such as EDGE and 1X, which achieved higher voice and data capacity than their 2G counterparts.

2G (Second Generation): a generic term to describe early digital mobile communications technologies, such as cdmaOne, GSM, and iDEN.

3G (Third Generation): technically used to describe technologies that fulfill the ITU’s IMT-2000 requirement, but in practice a generic term to describe advanced wireless technologies that are capable of high data rates, such as UMTS and EV-DO.

3GPP: Third Generation Partnership Project is a collaboration between multiple telecommunications associations, known as the Organizational Partners, with the principle goal of making a globally applicable 3G mobile phone system specification based on evolved GSM specifications. The 3GPP is designed to work within the scope of the IMT-2000 specs. Today, 3GPP is principally tasked with development of LTE and LTE-A specifications.

4G (Fourth Generation): used to describe technologies that fulfill the ITU’s IMT-Advanced specifications, such as WiMax 2 and LTE Advanced. 4G technologies have flexible channel bandwidths; peak speeds of 100 Mbit/s when mobile and 1.5 Gbit/s when fixed; high spectral efficiency; smooth handoff between different network types; and a flat, all-IP network architecture. In practice, 4G is also used to describe technologies that nearly meet these requirements such Mobile WiMAX and LTE.

CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access): an FDD approach to wireless communications where each transmission is digitized and then tagged with a code. The mobile phone is then instructed to decipher only a particular code to pluck the right conversation off the air. The process can be compared in some ways to an English-speaking person picking out in a crowded room of French speakers the only other person speaking English.

cdmaOne: a CDMA based 2G network technology developed by Qualcomm that is also known by its technical name, IS-95, or just CDMA for short.

DAS: Distributed Antenna System is a network of spatially separated antenna nodes connected to a common radio that provides wireless service within a geographic area or structure.


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E-UTRAN: Evolved UMTS Terrestrial Radio Access Network is the air interface for LTE.

EDGE (Enhanced Data rates for Global Evolution): a 2.5G technology for GSM and TDMA networks that offers peak mobile data downlinks speeds of up to 384 Kbit/s in end-user devices.

EMS: Element Management System are the systems and applications used to manage network elements on the network element management layer (NEL) of the Telecommunication Management Network (TMN) model.

eNode B: E-UTRAN Node B is the base transceiver station hardware in LTE networks. Node B uses the WCDMA/TD-SCDMA as the air interface technology. eNode B is therefore the enhanced version of Node B.

EPC: Evolved Packet Core is the core IP processing functionality for LTE and beyond, as defined by the SAE.

EV-DO: shorthand for CDMA2000 1xEV-DO (also known as IS-856), a CDMA based 3G technology developed by Qualcomm and supported by the 3GPP2 that builds on 1X and supports entirely packet based networks. The first iteration of the technology, Rel. 0, can be upgraded to Rev. A, Rev. B, Rev. B Multi-Carrier with a hardware upgrade, and even EV-DO Advanced. Rev A, the most deployed version of the technology, is capable of peak rates of 3.1 Mbit/s in a 1.25 MHz channel.

FDD (Frequency Division Duplex): segregates uplink and downlink operations into two spectrum bands of equal width (paired spectrum bands), which are separated by one or more other bands to avoid interference.

Fixed WiMax: the common name for 802.16d, since it does not support client or terminal mobility.

GPRS (General Packet Radio Service): a technology for data transmission on GSM networks.

GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications): a TDMA based 2G air interface technology used throughout the world.

HETNET: Heterogeneous Network is a network connecting computers and other devices with different operating systems and/or protocols. In wireless, HetNet indicates the use of multiple types of access nodes, including macrocells, picocells, femtocells and/or Wi-Fi, in order to offer wireless coverage in an environment with a wide variety of wireless coverage zones.

HSPA: High Speed Packet Access is an amalgamation of High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) and High Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA) that supports increased peak data rates of up to 14 Mbit/s in the downlink and 5.76 Mbit/s in the uplink. Evolved HSPA (also known as HSPA+) is a wireless broadband standard defined in 3GPP release 7 and 8 of the WCDMA specification that provides data rates up to 84 Mbit/s in the downlink and 22 Mbit/s in the uplink (per 5 MHz carrier) with MIM) technologies and higher order modulation.


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HSS: Home Subscriber Server is the central network database that contains user-related and subscription-related information. The HSS provides mobility management, call and session establishment support, user authentication and access authorization. The HSS is based on pre-Rel-4 Home Location Register (HLR) and Authentication Center (AuC).

iDEN (Integrated Digital Enhanced Network) is a 2G TDMA based mobile communications technology developed by Motorola that provides users with the benefit of Push To Talk (walkie talkie style) communication.

IMS: IP Multimedia Subsystem is an architectural framework for delivering Internet Protocol (IP) multimedia services, originally designed by the 3GPP as a part of the vision for evolving mobile networks beyond GSM.

LTE (Long Term Evolution): a OFDMA based 3GPP standard, generally branded as 4G, that uses an all-IP flat network architecture and is capable of peak downlink speeds 100 Mbit/s and uplink speeds of 50 Mbit/s when deployed in a 20 MHz channel, and even higher rates if used with MIMO to deploy LTE in multiple channels. LTE is generally FDD, but also has an TDD implementation, TD-LTE.

LTE-Advanced: a 3GPP standard that builds off LTE, offering even greater channel flexibility and peak data rates of more than 1 Gbit/s.

MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output): the use of multiple antennas at both the transmitter and receiver to increase spectral efficiency and link reliability.

MME: Mobile Managed Entity is the key control-node for the LTE access-network. It is responsible for idle mode UE (User Equipment) tracking and paging procedure including retransmissions.

Mobile WiMax: the common name for 802.16e, since the technology includes support for high-speed client mobility. Mobile WiMax networks are not backwards compatible with Fixed WiMax networks and offer peak speeds of up to 40 Mbit/s in a single 20 MHz channel.

NGMN: Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance is an industry association founded to develop a common solutions view of next generation wireless networks.

OFDMA (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access): and advanced method of wireless communications that uses complex channel division methods to achieve minimal interference, high spectral efficiency, and efficient use of MIMO.

PGW (PDN Gateway): PDN Gateway provides connectivity from the user equipment (UE) to external packet data networks by being the point of exit and entry of traffic for the device. A UE may have simultaneous connectivity with more than one PGW for accessing multiple PDNs. The PGW performs policy enforcement, packet filtering for each user, charging support, lawful interception and packet screening. PGW also provides for mobility between 3GPP and non-3GPP technologies such as WiMAX, CDMA 1X and EvDO.


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RAN: Radio Access Network – the physical radio layer at the front of each wireless network. Provides the RF connection to the end user device.

S-GW: Serving Gateway routes and forwards user data packets and acts as the mobility anchor for the user plane during inter-eNodeB handovers. The S-GW also manages mobility between LTE and other 3GPP technologies (terminating S4 interface and relaying the traffic between 2G/3G systems and PGW).

SAE: System Architecture Evolution is the core network architecture of 3GPP's LTE wireless communication standard.

SGSN: Service GPRS Support Node is responsible for the delivery of data packets from and to the 2G and 3G mobile base stations within its geographical service area. Its tasks include packet routing and transfer, mobility management (attach/detach and location management), logical link management, and authentication and charging functions.

SON: Self-Organizing Network has been defined by the 3GPP and NGMN as a framework for functions on future radio access networks that make it easier to plan, configure, manage, optimize and correct radio networks.

TDD (Time Division Duplex): a method of separating a channel’s uplink and downlink signals by assigning each unique time slots, allowing use of a single, unpaired block of spectrum.

TDMA (Time Division Multiple Access): a TDD method of wireless communications that allows many users to access a single radio frequency channel without interference by allocating unique time slots to each user within each channel.

UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System): the 3GPP’s standardized CDMA based approach to 3G cellular systems. UMTS includes technologies such as W-CDMA (Wideband CDMA), HSPA (High Speed Packet Access), and HSPA+. In a 5 MHz channel, HSPA+ can reach peak download speeds of 21 Mbit/s, or even higher if deployed with MIMO.

Wi-Fi: Wireless Fidelity is a wireless network for connecting computing devices, as defined by IEEE 802.11 in the 2.4 GHz, 3.6 GHz and 5 GHz frequency bands.

WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access): refers to set of implementations of the IEEE’s 802.16 wireless network standards supported by the WiMax Forum, which certifies vendor equipment to ensure interoperability. WiMax requires an all-IP, network architecture, makes uses of OFDMA, and generally uses unpaired, TDD spectrum.

WiMax 2: the common name for 802.16m, which is expected to be the first truly 4G WiMax technology capable of mobile data speeds up to 120 Mbit/s in a single 20 MHz channel. 802.16m will succeed 802.16e, with which it is backwards compatible.


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Regions

All regions are roughly based on traditional geographic conventions. There are no countries that are divided between multiple regions or that are a member of multiple regions.

Asia-Pacific: All countries in East Asia, South Asia, Oceania, and the Pacific. Afghanistan and Pakistan, sometimes considered parts of the Middle East, are also part of the region. Other exceptions are Russia (which is part of Europe) and Japan (which is its own region).

Europe: All countries on the continent of Europe. Additionally the following transcontinental and Western Asia countries are part of the Europe region: Cyprus, Russia, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Japan: the nation of Japan.

Latin America: All countries in Central America (including Mexico), the Caribbean, and South America.

Middle East and Africa: All countries in Africa and the Middle East. Additionally, the following Central Asian countries are a part of the region: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Some countries traditionally considered to be part of the Middle East region are a categorized under other regions. Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are a part of the Europe region. Afghanistan and Pakistan are a part of the Asia-Pacific region.

North America: The United States and Canada.


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About iGR

iGR is a market strategy consultancy focused on the wireless and mobile communications industry. Founded by Iain Gillott, one of the wireless industry’s leading analysts, we research and analyze the impact new wireless and mobile technologies will have on the industry, on vendors’ competitive positioning, and on our clients’ strategic business plans.

Our clients typically include service providers, equipment vendors, mobile Internet software providers, wireless ASPs, mobile commerce vendors, and billing, provisioning, and back office solution providers. We offer a range of services to help companies improve their position in the marketplace, clearly define their future direction, and, ultimately, improve their bottom line.

Note that Iain Gillott currently serves as an independent director for Wmode, Inc.

A more complete profile of the company can be found at http://www.igr-inc.com/.

Disclaimer

The opinions expressed in this report are those of iGR and do not reflect the opinions of the companies or organizations referenced in this study. All research was conducted exclusively and independently by iGR.

global mobile connections forecast, 2012 - 2017 · 2016-05-17 · connections over the next 5 years...

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