global macro trends for 2011

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2011 WorldviewTop Macrotrends to Watch

February 2011

Presented by the Global View Team

Our Global Reach

Agenda

• The Factors Affecting Global Consumers:

A STEEP Analysis

• The Shift

• Common ground: Taking Control

• Developed vs. Developing:

Parallel worlds, parallel lives

• Key Takeaways

The Forces Affecting

Global Consumers

A STEEP Analysis

The retirement bombDemographic imbalances begin to bite

as postwar generations in the U.S.,

Canada, France, Germany, Japan and

Korea begin to claim benefits

Society

Questioning educationAs governments in countries like France

and Italy implement reforms and cut

budgets, more wonder if the cost

translates into brighter career prospects

Left: Iconoculture image; right: Flickr.com/photos/thomaspetermueller image

The world in our handsMobile devices assert their status as the empowering center of the connected universe in both developed and developing societies

Technology

Cloud and crowdThe Net and the network become persistent angels on the shoulder of the global consumer — a digital “spare brain”

of infinite size and memory

Left: Flickr.com/photos/eenar_6 image; right: photo courtesy of Luciana Stein, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Brazil

Economy

A tale of two roads: Emerging vs. Developed

Environment

Water, water anywhereWorldwide droughts and contaminated water supplies focus attention on safety and scarcity — and on management and conservation as key challenges

GreenstreamingPowered by government stimulus programs and rising consumer demand, sustainable energy goes from trend to policy

Left: Flickr.com/photos/IRRI_Images image; right: Flickr.com/photos/J.R.Stuart image

Politics

Same stuff, different dayHope for real reform dwindles as

“politics as usual” persists in many

developed markets — same faces,

same arguments, same ideas

Lame ducks and hot zonesDivided governments and leaders facing serious challenges lead to paralysis — or populist uprising

Left: GlobalPoliticalAwakening.blogspot.com; right: Criticalapp.com

The Shift

Around the World in 10 Macrotrends

20111. Dollars and Sense

2. Friends and Family

3. Technomorphing

4. Culture Shock

5. Ready, Set, Go!

6. Mindful Matters

7. Gross Nat’l Happiness

8. Control Freak

9. Get Real

10. Cultural ID


2. SustainAbilities

3. Dollars and Sense

4. Technomorphing

5. En Vogue

6. Wellville

7. MultiMe

8. Ready, Set, Go!

9. Joie de Vivre

10. Oh, Baby!

The Shifting Global Landscape

Transformers

SustainAbilities Mindful MattersGoing from maintaining to smart consumption

Joie de Vivre Gross National HappinessGoing from petite treats to open, shared fun

Oh, Baby! Culture ShockGoing from subversive sexiness to the “new proper”

En Vogue Get RealGoing from surface to substance

MultiMe Cultural IDGoing from fluid identity to new tribalism

Wellville Control FreakGoing from prevention to security

The Hyper-Engaged Consumer

Clockwise, from top left: iTunes image; Groupon.com image; eFitnessNow.com image; TheSmartStylist.com

image; ConsumerReports.org image; GreenLAGirl.com image

Consumer as…

…researcher

…analyst

…advocate

…expert

…pundit

…evangelist

…portfolio manager

…judge and jury

Values Shift

reality

security

innovation

luxury

affluence

control

aspiration

thrift

conservation

practicality

health

individuality

convenience

wellness

sustainability

family/

community

trust empowerment

20

08

20

09

reality, confidence,

hope

balance

innovation,

connectivity

savvy

sustainability

simplicity

health/wellness

family/

community

integrity, identity

20

10

family

balance

reality

security

control

connectivity/

innovation

health/wellness

practicality

confidence

20

11

Developing**1. family

2. connectivity

3. balance

4. health

5. security

6. innovation

7. savvy

8. control

9. confidence

10. reality

Developed*1. reality

2. balance

3. family

4. control

5. security

6. connectivity

7. responsibility

8. sustainability

9. conscience

10. practicality

* Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Spain, UK, US

** Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey

Two values landscapes (at least)



Developing**1. Dollars and Sense

2. Technomorphing


4. Ready, Set, Go!

5. Culture Shock

6. Control Freak

7. Cultural ID

8. Beauty Mark

9. En Vogue

10. Wellville

Developed*1. Dollars and Sense


3. Gross Nat’l Happiness

4. Technomorphing

5. Mindful Matters

6. Culture Shock

7. Get Real

8. SustainAbilities

9. Ready, Set, Go!

10. Control Freak

And two macrotrend landscapes (at least)



Developed*Gross Nat’l Happiness

Mindful Matters

Get Real

SustainAbilities

Developing**Cultural ID

Beauty Mark

En Vogue

Wellville

“Global,” i.e., Developed and Developing

Dollars and Sense

Technomorphing

Ready, Set, Go!

Friends and Family

Culture Shock

Control Freak

Globally, similarities and differences

Common Ground: Taking Control

BabyBearTechnology.com image

VirtualTourist.com image

A Global Culture ShockA global atmosphere of social and cultural uneasiness is

emerging as indigenous institutions, rituals, customs and

beliefs are challenged.

Culture Shock

• France endured crippling

protests in late 2010 as millions

pushed back against the raising

of the minimum retirement age

from 60 to 62

• Brazilians live in a state of

constant alert, as rising levels of

violence devastate the country’s

sense of security

• Chinese consumers are finally

waking up to the issue of online

privacy

Clockwise, from top left: Flickr.com/photos/william-hamon image; Tianya image; Flickr.com/photos/Marcelo

Freixo 50123 image; IM.qq.com image

Pushing

back against

a world out

of control

The high suicide rate in Korea is

another big issue. According to

government data, the suicide rate per

100,000 hit 31 in 2009. This is a 19.3%

increase from the previous year, and

the highest level in the world. Cases

of suicide among seniors, females

and youths are increasing rapidly.

Hankyoreh, 9 September 2010

A World of Control FreaksConsumers on the prowl for total control of environments,

property, time, safety and wellbeing.

Emptees.com image

Control Freak

• Russia: Self-serve phone

store appeals to

independent shoppers

• Many Mumbaikars brought

home 2011... at home

• Demanding Argentinean

parents want value-added

sitters

Clockwise, from top left: Tele2.ru image; Iconoculture image; photo courtesy of Juliana Medrano, Iconoculture

Cultural Fluent, Argentina; photo courtesy of Maria Corsino, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Italy

Do it my way

… or I’ll do it

myself

As ‘mindfulness’ becomes more of a

priority for Canadians, they are using tools

to simplify and inform themselves and

‘control’ their lives and environments. The

major way this presents itself in Canada is

through technology. The aspiration for the

Canadian consumer to ‘control’ as much as

possible in their lives is relevant because

there are so many systems they feel are out

of their control.

Michelle Auer, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Canada, 1 Dec 2010

Developed vs. Emerging

Megauploadd.com image

The Developed World ReprioritizesEnforced privation and values shifts have encouraged

consumers to reevaluate, reprioritize, and reset their life goals

and modus vivendi

Gross National

Happiness Mindful Matters Get Real

Pre-recession Recession Post-recession

splurging

spontaneous

short-sighted

consumption

slowed

slashed

shrunken

consumption

sensible

streamlined

smart

consumption

Lush Life

En Vogue

Funster

Dollars and Sense

SustainAbilities

Mindful Matters

Gross Nat’l Happiness

Get Real

Reprioritization in the Developed World

• The People’s Supermarket offers

Londoners more than groceries. It’s open

seven days a week and offers members a

10% discount plus a say in how the store

is run and which products it stocks.

• Great rooms aren’t designed in a day.

Ethan Allen is getting the word out in a

new campaign that espouses a slow-mo

interior design process.

• Yoxi.tv aim to alter the course of fast food

in America via YouTube, elements of

crowdsourcing and an American Idol-style

competition. Participants make videos of

their vision for a better fast food nation.

Reprioritization in the Developed World

Clockwise, from top left: ThePeoplesSupermarket.org image; EthanAllen.com image;

FoodCycle.org.uk image; Yoxi.tv image

The Well-

Managed

Lifestyle

In a way [Mindful Matters] has taken over

from Dollars and Sense and is, to my mind, a

more refined version of this more basic

expression of the frugal, counting-pennies way

of thinking. Mindfulness is a much broader and

yet in a way more definite way to describe the

way consumers in Australia are not just looking

to cut back and save a dollar wherever they can,

but they are instead more mindful or conscious

than they once were about where, how and, most

importantly, why they are spending.

Francesca Haisley, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Australia, 3 Dec 2010

“KFC. Changing for

China. Creating the

New Fast Food.”

The Developing World Asserts its PrideThe active recognition, affirmation, and celebration of cultural

affiliations we are born into, as well as the ones we choose, is

thriving in the developing world.

VirtualChina.org image

From… To…

catching up

emulation

“Westernization”

identity

expression

innovation

isolation

Lush Life

En Vogue

Cultural Fusion

Cultural ID

My/Our Lush Life

My/Our En Vogue

Cultural ID in the Emerging World

Positivity about national identity

and rising role on the world stage:• Beijing Olympics, Shanghai Expo

• Brazil World Cup 2014

• Russia awarded World Cup for 2018

Negativity/concerns about the

influence of other countries• Muslim immigration into Russia

Changing definition of self• From fluid identity to new tribalism

Top:ChinaDaily.China.com image; RadioFreeBritain.blogspot.com image

Cultural ID: Why

Value Rank Global rank

security #3 (Russia) #19

freedom #6 (India) #34

change #38 (Brazil) #74

patriotism #26 (China) #84

SOURCE: Iconoculture Quant Survey W1, 2010

BASE SIZE: Min. 1,000 per country, online

FIGURES: Show rank-position of each value out of a total of 90 values, based on Top-2 box scores

Cultural ID: Different Drivers

• Masha and the Bear, a new animated

Russian TV series loosely based on a

traditional Russian fairytale, is a hit among

kids ages 3 to 9 and their parents.

• On July 26, at least 1,000 people staged a

peaceful but loud protest in Guangzhou over

perceived threats to their dialect. A national

debate about dominant vs. marginalized

cultures has ignited.

• To compete with global fast food chains, a

popular chain of eateries in Bangalore,

Empire Restaurants, has introduced the

take-away thali.

Clockwise, from top left: Animaccord.ru image; Sina.com.cn image; Za-lentu.ru image;

Flickr.com/photos/haynes image

Getting back

to me

Cultural ID in the Emerging World

Key

Takeaways

Key Takeaways

• The global recovery is taking different pathways in developed and

developing countries.

• This divergence is also readily apparent in the underlying values

and lifestyle behaviours of consumers in different parts of the world,

although there are also some unifying forces that seem to be at play

everywhere.

• Across both developed and developing economies, marketers

would do well to- Remember that frugality is still a key concern

- Facilitate relationship building with family and friends

- Push technology into more and more areas of our lives

- Offer convenient solutions as our lives stay busy

- Expect hyper-engaged consumers to micromanage their lives and push

back against a world out of control

Key Takeaways

• One size does not fit all in the fragmented global economy of

2011.

• Marketing to consumers in developed markets will need to

recognize a shift in emphasis. Products will rarely be “must-

haves”; marketers will have their work cut out even to make

them “should-considers.”

• Selling approaches in the developing world will need to evolve:- Powerful cues such as “cool,” “status” and “style” will continue

to motivate

- But look to shift the global-local balance toward the local

wherever possible

Valeria PiaggioVP, Consumer Strategist

Global View

[email protected]

Jeff YangVP, Consumer Strategist

Global View

[email protected]

Nick ChiarelliDirector, Consumer Strategist

Global View

[email protected]

global macro trends for 2011

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