[global hr forum 2014] employment of middle-aged class older employees in germany and their...

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Plan for Reasonable Job Creation and Generational Sympathy:

Employment of Middle-aged Class

Older Employees in Germany and their

contributions against labor market shortages

Dr. Robert Helmrich

is the national and international centre of competence for initial

and continuing vocational education and training in Germany,

and contributes to the improvement of vocational education and

training by means of research, advisory services and

development.

Our topic: Early identification of qualification developments

Global HR Forum 2014, November, 4.-6. 2014, Seoul, Korea, TC 2, Thursday, 11.00-12.30

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Company / part-

time vocational

school

Lower secondary

school

Secondary level I

Age: 10 to 15/16 years

Primary level

Age: 6 to 10 years

Secondary level II

Age: 16 to 20 years

Tertiary level

Age: over 19 years

Weiterbildung

Primary school

Full-time

vocational school

Senior level at

compr. secondary

school

Intermediate

school

Comprehensive

secondary school

Continuing education

Universities Continuing vocational training

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Content

Employment of Middle-Aged Class

Population-forecast in Europe and Germany

Employment participation of the middle-aged class

The german Labour market

Development of supply and demand side in the german labour market

Labour market Shortages in 2030

Older Employees in Germany

Advantage of older Employees

Conclusion

Robert Helmrich BIBB, Germany

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Quelle: Helmrich/Zika (2012) – www.qube-projekt.de

Quelle: Federal Statistical Office; 12th coordinated population projections and current population estimation; calculations and representations QuBe-Project.

Total population and population by age group V1- W2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

In m

. of

pe

rso

ns

Year

Working population 15 up to under 65 years of age

. 1W2: 2012-2030: -8.2 m.

Older persons over 65 years of age

Youth under 15 years of age

Total population


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Demographic trend of the share of the potential

workforce in the total population (2005=100)

80

85

90

95

100

105

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EU25 BE DK DE NL AT

Source: EUROSTAT, population projections, trend scenario: baseline variant


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Demographic trend of the share of the 55-64 age cohort

in the total potential workforce (2005=100)

90

100

110

120

130

140

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EU25 BE DK DE NL AT

Source: EUROSTAT, population projections, trend scenario: baseline variant


® Robert Helmrich BIBB, Germany

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Year

Rate of Youth Unemployment in Europe in %

France

Germany

Greece

Italy

Netherlands

Spain

GB

European Union 28

Quelle: Labour Force Survey, OECD.Stat

Youth Unemployment in Europe

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Projektion des Arbeitskräftebedarfs 2/3 Workforce participation rates by selected age-groups (1991 to 2010)

BIBB-IAB – www.qube-projekt.de Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Mikrozensus

Pe

rce

nta

ge

by a

ge c

oh

ort

s

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Rate of Employment by Age and Qualification

Source: Mikrozensus 2011, BIBB

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67-69 70-72 73-75 76-78 79-81 >81

ISCED 1-3a ISCED 3b-4 ISCED 5b ISCED 5a 6


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Content









Conclusion


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Development of some important labour market figures in

Germany from 2010 to 2030

Quelle: Mikrocensus and national accounts of the Federal Statistical Office. Calculations and graphics by QuBe-Project, 3rd wave

Quelle: Maier, Zika et al., 2014: Engpässe im mittleren Qualifikationsbereich trotz erhöhter Zuwanderung. BIBB-Report 23/14

Year 2010 2020 2030

Population in m. 80.2 79.9 78.7

Working age population1) in

m. 57.2 56.4 53.3

Labour force in m. 43.5 43.6 41.8

Employed population in m. 40.6 41.6 40.4

Employment rate2) 71.00% 73.80% 75.80%

1) Population between the age of 15 to under 70

2) Employed population in relation to labour force

3) Employed population without self-employed workers


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Results I: Labour-market Shortages in 2030: Labour demand and supply

Source: Maier, Zika et al., 2014: Shortages in the medium qualifications area despite increased immigration. BIBB-Report 23/14


34

36

38

40

42

44

46

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

In m

. of

pe

rso

ns

Year

Labour Supply QINFORGE (3rd wave)

Labour Demand QINFORGE (3rd wave)

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Results II: Labour supply and demand by skill level

Source: Maier, Zika et al., 2014: Shortages in the medium qualifications area despite increased immigration. BIBB-Report 23/14


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Results III: Balance of labour demand and supply by MOF (2005 to 2030)

(Major occupational fields)

Difference in

labour supply

and demand

before

accounting for

the

occupational

flexibility – in

thousands of

persons

Source: www.qube-projekt.de ; 3rd wave

http://www.qube-projekt.de/



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Main occupational field of the occupation learned Proportional values for change from main occupational field (MOF) learned to MOF exercised Line

percentages MOF 1 MOF 2 MOF 3 MOF 4 MOF 5 MOF 6 MOF 7 MOF 8 MOF 9 MOF 10 MOF 11 MOF 12

1: Raw material extraction occupations 50.7% 8.8% 2.9% 5.9% 12.1% 6.5% 5.0% 2.2% 2.5% 0.9% 2.0% 0.6% 100.0%

2: Processing, manufacturing and repair

occupations 1.8% 47.7% 7.8% 5.3% 15.5% 5.6% 3.7% 6.7% 2.8% 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 100.0%

3: Occupations involving the control and

maintenance of machines and plants 1.2% 16.7% 41.0% 4.5% 12.9% 5.4% 3.9% 6.9% 2.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 100.0%

4: Occupations involving the trading and sale of

goods 0.8% 2.8% 1.0% 50.1% 6.5% 10.6% 16.6% 1.4% 4.8% 1.6% 3.2% 0.5% 100.0%

5: Occupations involving traffic, warehousing,

transport, security, guarding 1.0% 6.0% 1.8% 4.5% 66.4% 4.4% 8.6% 2.1% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% 0.7% 100.0%

6: Hotel and restaurant and cleaning occupations 3.0% 4.9% 2.4% 8.8% 8.7% 56.5% 6.1% 1.2% 3.0% 1.1% 3.6% 0.8% 100.0%

7: Office, commercial service occupations 0.5% 1.4% 0.5% 8.7% 4.3% 4.0% 67.4% 2.3% 5.9% 1.9% 2.5% 0.6% 100.0%

8: Technical and scientific occupations 0.8% 7.8% 2.3% 4.7% 4.0% 2.6% 7.7% 50.1% 10.7% 4.0% 1.7% 3.6% 100.0%

9: Legal, management and economic occupations 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 7.9% 1.9% 1.6% 25.2% 4.2% 49.1% 4.6% 1.7% 2.4% 100.0%

10: Media, humanities, social science and artistic

occupations 0.4% 1.9% 0.7% 6.3% 2.4% 3.1% 9.9% 7.2% 7.8% 43.8% 4.6% 11.9% 100.0%

11: Health and social occupations, body care

providers 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 4.2% 2.1% 5.2% 6.1% 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 72.5% 3.4% 100.0%

12: Teaching occupations 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 2.1% 1.3% 3.0% 3.9% 1.0% 1.5% 2.5% 5.1% 78.3% 100.0%

Without vocational education and training 2.9% 16.8% 5.8% 10.3% 17.3% 27.1% 6.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 5.5% 0.8% 100.0%

In education and training 2.0% 14.8% 4.1% 14.2% 7.5% 10.5% 15.6% 5.8% 1.7% 5.2% 15.0% 3.5% 100.0%

Total 2.4% 13.9% 4.8% 10.4% 9.7% 10.3% 15.4% 8.0% 5.7% 3.5% 12.2% 3.7% 100.0%

Occupational flexibility according to main occupational field (MOF) in

year 2011





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Results IV: Balance of labour demand and supply by MOF (2005 to 2030)

Difference in

labour supply

and demand

considering the

endogenised

occupational

flexibility

process – in

thousands of

persons





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Content









Conclusion


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Older people in Germany works longer

People older than 64 years works longer

Reasons …. Like to work

Have something to do

Contact to other people

Financial reasons

Other reasons


Early retirement ?


Reasons for early retirement

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Strenghts of older employees

Older employees are seen to have a greater degree of methodological

competence and social competence.


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Measures used to bind older employees

But: so far only 31% of the enterprises actually use one or several of

these measures!


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Mixed-age learning – Application and valorisation of experience

Development of an intergenerational knowledge management

• Mixed-age teams

• Mentoring systems and tandems

• Knowledge communities


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Health

Preservation and Development

of the

Ability to Work across the whole Employment

Biography

Work Design

Career Paths

Health Behaviour

Work Design

Career Paths

Gratification

Career Paths

Work Design

Continuing

Vocational

Training

Strategy

Participation

Org

an

isa

tion

Lead

ers

hip

Perspective: Age-oriented Personnel Development

Promotion of a new quality seal for personnel development


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Conclusion


Germany expects a massive skills shortages in the coming decades.

To keep older workers in employment is only one measures.

More important are:

- a well qualified labour force

- a sufficient immigration

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Thank you for your attention!

Contact:

Dr. Robert Helmrich

Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB)

Robert-Schuman-Platz 3

D-53175 Bonn

Germany

[email protected]

+49-(0)228-107-1132

[global hr forum 2014] employment of middle-aged class older employees in germany and their...

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