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Global Framework for Climate
Services (GFCS): An Overview
Rupa Kumar Kolli
Filipe Lucio [email protected]
www.gfcs-climate.org/ 1
Global Framework for Climate Services
Goal:
• Enable better management of the risks of
climate variability and change and
adaptation to climate change at all levels,
through development and incorporation of
science-based climate information and
prediction into planning, policy and practice.
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Why a Framework for Climate Services?
• It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources…) for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors.
• A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings.
• Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services.
• Climate services have not been able to reach the last mile to those who need them the most.
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WMO
What are Climate Services?
• Provide a source of accumulated knowledge about the past, present and future of the climate system;
• The development and delivery of a range of "products" and advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems – Historical climate data sets
– Climate monitoring
– Climate watches
– Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions
– Climate change projections
• The use and the effective application of these products to help achieve the desired results.
Components of GFCS
,
User Interface
Users – Government, private sector, research – agriculture, water, health,
construction, disaster reduction, environment, tourism, transport, etc. ,
User Interface
Climate Services Information System
Observations and
Monitoring
Research, Modeling
and Prediction
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
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GFCS Sectoral Priorities
• All climate-sensitive sectors to be tackled but in the
first four years it is agreed to give priority to the
following sectors for GFCS implementation:
Energy
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The principles of GFCS
GFCS Governance
• Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services (IBCS) – Established by Extraordinary Session of World Meteorological
Congress in 2012
• IBCS-1: 1-5 July 2013, Geneva – Adopted the GFCS Implementation Plan
• IBCS-2: 10-14 November 2014, Geneva
• IBCS Management Committee (Re-established in IBCS-2) – Chair: Dr Jens Sunde (Norway)
– Co-Vice-Chairs: Dr L.S. Rathore (India) and Dr L. Makuleni (South Africa)
– 28-Member Management Committee
• Partnership Advisory Committee
• GFCS Trust Fund
• GFCS Office (as part of WMO Secretariat)
GFCS is a partnership
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Early Implementation of GFCS • National Consultations/Pilot Projects on frameworks for climate services at national
level – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Belize, Dominica, Trinidad and
Tobago, Suriname, Bhutan, Kiribati, etc.
• Regional Consultations – LDCs in Asia, Bangkok, October 2012
– SIDS Caribbean, Port of Spain, May 2013
– SIDS Pacific, Cook Islands, 31 March-4 April 2014
– Latin America, 28 July – 1 August 2014
– Southeastern Europe, November 2014
– Third Pole, March 2016
• Establishment of joint project offices – WHO/WMO Climate and Health
– GWP/WMO IDMP TSU
– WFP/WMO
• Interagency Coordination Group with UN partners – FAO, WFP, UNESCO, UNDP, UNISDR, WB, WHO and WMO
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Lessons learned from regional and national
consultations
Regional
• Importance of research and science
• Role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums
• Maximization of limited resources through regional approach
• Exploring gaps, capacity development, and strategies for engaging stakeholders
National
• Systematic dialogue with users
• Understanding in-country capabilities
• Identification of data and observation requirements
• Identification of priority research questions
• Building sector-specific capacities
• Leveraging enabling factors
Concern...
Intensity
Frequency
Heatwaves
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Tropical Cyclones
Coastal Marine Hazards
Strong Wind
Water Resource
Management
Health Industry
Food
security Transport
Energy
Urban areas
Hazards’ intensity
and frequency
are increasing
Need for > coping
mechanisms
Vulnerability and
exposure on the rise !
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Drought Flooding
Pro
ba
bil
ity
P (
x)
X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)
Coping range
Within every society,
there is a certain capacity
to cope with hazards
Climate variability/change
as well as societal changes
can increase or decrease
this coping range.
Adapted from Wilhite, 2006.
Vulnerability to climate hazards varies...
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Forecast
uncertainty
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
Forecasts
Warnings
Alerts
Outlooks
Predictions
Scenarios
Projections
Decades Centuries
Climate Change
2 Weeks
Months
Seasons
Years
Climate Variability
Weather
Historical
Observations
Customized Products •Risk assessment and mapping
•Risk Monitoring
•Early Warnings
•Public Advisories
•Research
•Planning tools
Response/Preparedness
Seamless hydrometeorological and climate services
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New demand-driven products in the offing:
onset prediction and monitoring
Probability of early
‘onset’
Probability of
late ‘onset’
CSRP monitoring
product: Observed
time of ‘onset‘ (in
days difference from
long-term average
Early onset
predicted most
likely
Early onset
occurred
Assessment over retrospective cases
indicates forecast can discriminate
early/late onset in ~70% of cases
(Tanzania/Kenya)
Onset forecasts being trialled at
regional centres in East, West and
southern Africa
Prediction is based
on local time of
arrival of 20% of
long-term seasonal
average
Greater Horn of Africa, short-rains season
2011 – 1 month lead time prediction
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Data or information?
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Decision-making across timescales
Begin planning and
monitoring of forecasts
Update contingency
plans
Sensitize communities
Enable early-warning
systems
Continue monitoring
Adjust plans
Warn communities
Local preparation
activities
Activate
response
Instruction to
communities to
evacuate, if
needed
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get
Mark Twain
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Strategic
Objectives of
the GFCS
Operational
and
Resources
Plan
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Step 1: Conduct Comprehensive National Baseline Capacity Assessment for Climate Services
Step 2: Support NHMS to engage in a national consultations process for the development of a framework for climate services
Step 3: Develop National Action Plan to address the capacity gaps identified through the national consultation process
Step 4: Organize National Action Plan Validation
Step 5: Begin Implementation of National Action Plan Activities, Launch National Framework for Climate Services, Ensure rigorous M&E
Supporting Countries to Achieve Coordinated
National Frameworks for Climate Services
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Development of National Action Plans
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Baseline
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Implementation focus (1/2)
• The Framework is being implemented over 2-, 6-, and
10-year time frames to facilitate review at the World
Meteorological Congress sessions.
• The first two years have been the start-up phase for
establishing the Framework’s infrastructure and for
establishment of coordination mechanisms for
implementation of multidisciplinary flagship projects and
activities in the four priority areas
– to develop a “Proof of Concept”
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Implementation focus (2/2)
• Pursuing the ambitions of the Implementation Plan:
• After six years:
– Implementation the Proof of Concept;
– flagship projects will be replicated in other parts of the world to
ensure worldwide improvements in climate services for the
priority areas
• After ten years:
– There will be improved climate services throughout the world,
across all climate-sensitive sectors and across global, regional
and national spatial scales.
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8 Weather • Climate • Water
Major needs
• Capacity development of professionals and communities on
production and effective application of climate services
• Improved, standardized, and quality controlled sector monitoring data
that is compatible with environmental and climate information;
• Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and cost-
effective use of climate information for sector decisions;
• Research and prediction of sector impacts associated with climate
variability and climate change, in collaboration with the climate
research community;
• Development and deployment of early warning systems appropriate to
the sector and user communities;
• Sustainable financial and technical support;
• Better collaboration with the climate community for interdisciplinary
policy, practice and research.
Ten Pre-requisites for Effective GFCS Implementation
1. Strong institutional anchorage
2. Tailored climate service provision
3. Capacity of the NMHS and other technical services
4. Improved communication
5. Diverse communication media
6. Modernized and increased the density of observing networks
7. User driven climate research
8. Enhanced capacity of end-users
9. Sustained GFCS implementation at the national level
10. National stakeholder engagement
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Operational infrastructure required • Technical infrastructure
– Requirements for the different components of the GFCS
– Interoperability of databases (e.g., WIS compliance)
– Climate Services Toolkit (including downscaling/tailoring tools)
– Web platform for dissemination
• Global-Regional-National interaction – Networking capabilities (national access to as well as contribution to
global and regional products)
• Best practices and standardized approaches – Quality management, best practices on methods, tools, etc.
– Standardized approaches for regional/sub-regional synergy
• Linking operational products with the applications – Access to application models and decision support tools
– User-accessible climate knowledgebase
– Operational linkages with applications infrastructure
Programme of Implementing GFCS at Regional and
National Scales: Funded by Environment Canada
Objectives of this Consultation (1/2)
• Review current status of climate services in the Southwest Indian
Ocean region and assess specific needs in the GFCS priority
sectors;
• Review and characterize the current status of interfacing
mechanisms and interactions between climate services providers
and users, identify major areas for improvement and recommend
effective mechanisms and practices;
• Articulate the capacity building needs for the region, in terms of
mandates, infrastructure and human resources;
• Discuss and recommend improved arrangements for national and
local climate issues including climate change indices and impacts
indicators, improved access and use of climate data and
predictions, sustained operational mechanisms and infrastructure
that improve facilitation of the flow of climate information;
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Objectives of this Consultation (2/2)
• Identify partnerships among relevant stakeholders in the region
and build synergies with initiatives supporting the foundational
elements for climate services, such as the Indian Ocean Data
Rescue (INDARE) initiative, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs),
Regional and National Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs/NCOFs)
and others;
• Identify, propose and prioritize, ways to promote community
understanding and awareness of climate variability and change,
and associated risks and opportunities for improved climate risk
management and products and services;
• Provide participating countries with the key steps to implement
GFCS at national level through sharing of experiences from the
various national consultations held so far, and through
identification of priorities for implementation.
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Thank you for your attention
www.gfcs-climate.org/ 30