global environmental trends world resources institute
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Global Environmental Global Environmental TrendsTrends
World Resources InstituteWorld Resources Institutehttp://www.wri.org/wri/http://www.wri.org/wri/
Global population continues to riseGlobal population continues to rise
02468
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Popu
latio
n (b
illio
ns)
Africa Asia and OceaniaEurope Latin America and CaribbeanNorth America
Stabilization remains a challengeStabilization remains a challenge
0
1
2
3
4
1950 2000 2050
Stab
iliza
tion
Rat
io (b
irths
/dea
ths)
(1 =
no
popu
latio
n gr
owth
)
Developing DevelopedAfrica AsiaSouth and Central America
Different assumptions, Different assumptions, different projectionsdifferent projections
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n (b
illio
ns)
Low Medium High
Fertility declines, real and projectedFertility declines, real and projected
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Chi
ldre
n pe
r Wom
an (2
.1 =
no
popu
latio
n gr
owth
)
Developing
Developed
Africa
Asia
South and CentralAmerica
Rapid growth in low income economiesRapid growth in low income economies
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
GD
P G
row
th R
ate
(per
cen
t)
World Low Income Middle Income High Income
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
(mill
ions
in a
bsol
ute
pove
rty)
East Asia LatinAmerica
MiddleEast
SouthAsia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Total
1987 1990 1993
The number of poor continues to growThe number of poor continues to grow
Growing disparities in incomes among Growing disparities in incomes among regionsregions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
(per
cap
ita in
com
e in
con
stan
t int
erna
tiona
l dol
lars
)
Africa Asia Latin AmericaW. Europe N. America
Urban Growth Spurt ContinuesUrban Growth Spurt Continues
0123456789
10
1950 1975 2000 2025
Po
pu
lati
on
(b
illio
ns
)
Rural Developed Urban DevelopedRural Developing Urban Developing
Africa and Asia are Urbanizing FastestAfrica and Asia are Urbanizing Fastest
0102030405060708090
100
(per
cent
)
Africa Asia CentralAmerica
Europe NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
1970 2000 2025
People on the MovePeople on the Move
-63-9
-1366-41
739
102
-392
-85
971
340111
404
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Net
Num
ber o
f Mig
rant
s (t
hous
ands
)
Africa Asia Europe LatinAmerica and
Carribean
NorthAmerica
Oceania
Number (thousands)
Rate (per 100,000 population)
Progress Toward DemocracyProgress Toward Democracy
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992Dem
ocra
tical
ly E
lect
ed G
over
nmen
ts b
y Re
gion
, 196
0-94
OECD Latin America
South and East Asia and Pacific Sub-saharan Africa
Eastern Europe and Central Asia Middle East and North Africa
OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
More Children Are Attending SchoolMore Children Are Attending School
0
20
40
60
80
100
(per
cent
)
World Africa LatinAmericaand the
Carribean
Asia Europe Oceania
1980 1990 1994
More Adults Can ReadMore Adults Can Read
0102030405060708090
100
(per
cent
age
of p
eopl
e ol
der t
han
15
who
are
lite
rate
)
World Africa LatinAmerica and
Caribbean
Asia Europe Oceania
1980 1985 1990 1995
0
1
2
3
4
5
Yiel
d (m
etric
tons
/hec
tare
)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Wheat Yield Rice Yield Maize Yield
Yields Are Up, But Growth is SlowingYields Are Up, But Growth is Slowing
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% In
crea
se in
Yie
ld
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Wheat Paddy Rice Maize
Yields Are Up, But Growth is SlowingYields Are Up, But Growth is Slowing
Progress in Feeding the World Has Varied Progress in Feeding the World Has Varied Widely by RegionWidely by Region
80
100
120
140
160
180
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
Inde
x Nu
mbe
rs 1
961=
100
U.S.S.R. (former) AfricaAsia EuropeWorld Latin America
Progress in Feeding the World Has Varied Progress in Feeding the World Has Varied Widely by RegionWidely by Region
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
Inde
x Nu
mbe
rs 1
961=
100
U.S.S.R. (former) Africa
Asia Europe
World Latin America
Despite Gains, Millions Go HungryDespite Gains, Millions Go Hungry
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1969-71 1979-81 1990-92 2010(mill
ion
pers
ons
suffe
ring
from
und
ernu
tritio
n)
Sub-Saharan Africa Near East and North AfricaEast and Southeast Asia South AsiaLatin America and the Caribbean
World Totals(million hectares)
Vegetation Removal 579Overexploitation 133Overgrazing 679Agricultural Activities 522Industrial and Bioindustrial 23
Degraded Soil Means Less FoodDegraded Soil Means Less Food
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
(mill
ions
of h
ecta
res
degr
aded
)
World Africa North andCentralAmerica
SouthAmerica
Asia Europe Oceania
Vegetation Removal Overexploitation
Overgrazing Agricultural Activities
Industrial and Bioindustrial
Food Supply Increasingly Relies on Food Supply Increasingly Relies on IrrigationIrrigation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991
(per
cent
)
Africa Asia Latin America Europe
North America Oceania World
Farmed Fish Are a Growing Share of the Farmed Fish Are a Growing Share of the Global Fish HarvestGlobal Fish Harvest
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
(mill
ion
met
ric to
ns)
Total Capture Total Aquaculture
What Do Industrial Economies Use?What Do Industrial Economies Use?
0
10
20
30
40
(met
ric to
ns p
er c
apita
)
Germany Japan Netherlands United States
Metals and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Construction minerals
Renewables Infrastructure excavation Erosion
Paper Use is Growing WorldwidePaper Use is Growing Worldwide
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
(met
ric to
ns p
er p
erso
n)
Africa North/CentralAmerica
South America Asia Europe Oceania World
1970 1980 1990 1994
Paper Recycling: Paper Recycling: Rising Volume, Growing ImportanceRising Volume, Growing Importance
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
(per
cent
rec
over
ed)
N. America C. America S. America Europe
Africa Oceania Asia
Vehicle numbers are rising dramaticallyVehicle numbers are rising dramatically
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
Cars Buses and Trucks
Motor vehicle use is highest in developed Motor vehicle use is highest in developed countriescountries
6.7
7.9
22.4
81
88.3
96.6
269.6
519
749.7
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
India
China
Africa
Hong Kong
South America
Brazil
Europe
Japan
United States
(Motor Vehicles Per 1,000 Persons)
Surface temperatures have warmed over Surface temperatures have warmed over the past centurythe past century
Greenhouse gas warmingGreenhouse gas warming
Methane19%
Other Halocarbons
5% CFC-126%
Nitrous Oxide6%
Carbon Dioxide64%
Per capita COPer capita CO22 emissions are emissions are small in small in developing developing countriescountries
0 5 10 15 20 25
Developed Countries
India
China
Mexico
France
Italy
South Africa
Korea, Rep
Ukraine
Poland, Rep
Japan
United Kingdom
Germany
Russian Federation
Canada
United States
(metric tons of carbon dioxide)
Developed Developed nations have nations have altered the altered the atmosphere atmosphere mostmost
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Developed Countries
Korea, Rep
Korea, Dem People's Rep
Iran, Islamic Rep
Brazil
Spain
Australia
Mexico
South Africa
Canada
India
Japan
China
Former USSR
European Union
United States
(billion metric tons of carbon dioxide)
Stabilizing COStabilizing CO22 means steep emission means steep emission cuts eventuallycuts eventually
Success story: Success story: CFC production has fallen sharplyCFC production has fallen sharply
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1986 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Industrialized CountriesDeveloping Countries
Backsliding: Halon production is rising Backsliding: Halon production is rising againagain
0
50
100
150
200
1986 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
(000
ODP
tons
)
China Other Developing Countries Industrialized Countries
Excess nutrients may spur algal bloomsExcess nutrients may spur algal bloomsPre 1972Pre 1972
Excess nutrients may spur algal bloomsExcess nutrients may spur algal bloomsPost 1972Post 1972
More fertilizer: More fertilizer: More food, but more pollution tooMore food, but more pollution too
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991
(mill
ion
met
ric to
ns)
AfricaAsiaSouth and Central AmericaEuropeNorth AmericaOceaniaWorld
SOSO22 emissions in Asia could triple emissions in Asia could triple
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
(mill
ion
met
ric to
ns p
er y
ear)
1990 2000 2010 2020
Europe United States and Canada Asia
NOx levels are still a problem in Europe NOx levels are still a problem in Europe and North Americaand North America
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
1980 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
(000
met
ric to
ns)
NOx SO2
Forest Loss Is Severe in the TropicsForest Loss Is Severe in the Tropics
0
10
20
30
40
50
(per
cent
)
Asia Africa Latin America World
Amazon Deforestation Remains HighAmazon Deforestation Remains High
Many of Earth’s Forests Have Been Many of Earth’s Forests Have Been Cleared or DegradedCleared or Degraded
02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,000
10,000,00012,000,00014,000,00016,000,00018,000,000
Russia andEurope
Asia North &South
America
SouthAmerica
Africa Oceania
(mill
ions
of s
quar
e ki
lom
eter
s)
Cleared Non Frontier Forest Frontier Forest
Water Demand is Growing, Water Demand is Growing, But Supplies Are LimitedBut Supplies Are Limited
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Oceania
North America
Central America
South America
Asia
Europe
Africa
World
Percentage of Water Resources
Total Withdrawals
Agriculture Dominates Water Use, Agriculture Dominates Water Use, But Its Share Will DeclineBut Its Share Will Decline
0 20 40 60 80 100
Oceania
North America
Central America
South America
Asia
Europe
Africa
World
Agricultural Industrial Domestic
Low-Income Nations Are Especially Low-Income Nations Are Especially Vulnerable to Water ScarcityVulnerable to Water Scarcity
River Habitats Have Been Heavily AlteredRiver Habitats Have Been Heavily Altered
200 3125 8750
489000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
(kilo
met
ers)
1680 1800 1900 1980
Waterways Altered for Navigation
How Much Are Nature’s Services Worth?How Much Are Nature’s Services Worth?
Global GNP(US $18 trillion)
Ecosystem Services(US $33 trillion)Ecosystem Services(US $33 trillion)
Reef Threats Are ExtensiveReef Threats Are Extensive
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Coastal Marine Over-Exploitation Land-based Pollution
(per
cent
)
High Medium
Some Fish Stocks Have Collapsed from Some Fish Stocks Have Collapsed from OverfishingOverfishing
0
100
200
300
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Nonc
od C
atch
(000
met
ric to
ns)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Cod
Catc
h (0
00 m
etric
tons
)
Flatfishes (flounders, halibuts, etc.) Haddock Red hake Atlantic cod COD CATCHNON COD CATCH
Bird Populations Are Under Siege Bird Populations Are Under Siege WorldwideWorldwide
Global Environmental Trends: Global Environmental Trends: Global CommonsGlobal Commons
World Resources InstituteWorld Resources Institutehttp://www.wri.org/wri/http://www.wri.org/wri/