global economics analyst

Global Economics AnalystThird Quarter 2011

Economies at a Glance with main forecasts �

Refer to ERWIN on Goldman 360 for additional forecasts and historical data �

Global Economics Analyst Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

3rd Quarter 2011 Volume 9, Issue 3

Note: Forecasts are in bold in tables and after the dotted line in charts. Interest rates are end-period unless otherwise stated. The source for all tables/charts is Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research unless otherwise stated. All regional aggregates reflect GS coverage. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US Dollars based on the ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Contents World Outlook 1

Main Economic Forecasts 2 Summary ................................................................... 2

Interest Rate Forecasts 4 G3, Europe, Americas and Asia ................................ 4 Policy Rate Forecasts ................................................ 5

Exchange Rate Forecasts 6 Dollar Crosses ........................................................... 6 Euro Crosses .............................................................. 7

Monetary and Fiscal Conditions 8 Broad Money Growth ................................................ 8 Budget Balances ....................................................... 9 Government Debt Ratio ........................................... 10

Demand and Output 11 Real GDP ................................................................. 11 Real GDP—Since 2002 and 10-Year Trend ............ 12 Real GDP per Capita %yoy ...................................... 13 Nominal GDP per Capita USD (Level and %yoy) .... 14 Nominal GDP—Level .............................................. 15 Nominal GDP ........................................................... 16 Consumer Expenditure ............................................ 17 Fixed Investment ..................................................... 18 Domestic Demand ................................................... 19 Exports of Goods and Services ............................... 20 Imports of Goods and Services ............................... 21 Current Account ...................................................... 22 Industrial Production ............................................... 23 Unemployment Rate ................................................ 24

Prices 25 CPI Inflation ............................................................. 25 GDP Deflators .......................................................... 26 Commodity Prices .................................................... 27

Country Reports—G3 28 United States .......................................................... 28 Japan ....................................................................... 29 Euroland .................................................................. 30

Country Reports—Europe 31 Czech Republic ........................................................ 31 Denmark .................................................................. 31 France ...................................................................... 32 Germany .................................................................. 32 Greece ..................................................................... 33 Hungary ................................................................... 33 Italy .......................................................................... 34 Kazakhstan .............................................................. 34

Country Reports—Europe cont’ Netherlands ...................................................... 35 Norway ............................................................. 35 Poland ............................................................... 36 Russia ............................................................... 36 Spain ................................................................. 37 Sweden ............................................................. 37 Switzerland ....................................................... 38 Turkey ............................................................... 38 Ukraine ............................................................. 39 United Kingdom ................................................ 39

Country Reports—Africa & Middle East 40 Egypt ................................................................. 40 Israel ................................................................. 40 Nigeria .............................................................. 41 South Africa ...................................................... 41

Asia 42 Australia ........................................................... 42 China ................................................................. 42 Hong Kong ........................................................ 43 India .................................................................. 43 Indonesia .......................................................... 44 Malaysia ........................................................... 44 New Zealand .................................................... 45 Philippines ........................................................ 45 Singapore.......................................................... 46 South Korea ...................................................... 46 Taiwan .............................................................. 47 Thailand ............................................................ 47 Vietnam ............................................................ 48

Latin America and Canada 49 Argentina .......................................................... 49 Brazil ................................................................. 49 Chile .................................................................. 50 Colombia ........................................................... 50 Dominican Republic .......................................... 51 Ecuador ............................................................. 51 Mexico .............................................................. 52 Panama ............................................................. 52 Peru ................................................................... 53 Venezuela ......................................................... 53 Canada .............................................................. 54

Size of the World 55

World Data 56 World Exports ................................................... 56 World Imports ................................................... 58

Global Economics Analyst


3rd Quarter 2011 Volume 9, Issue 3 1

Main Economic ForecastsReal GDP (%) 2010 2011 2012 Consumer Price Inflation (%) 2010 2011 2012

4 5 6 4 5 63 4 5 3 4 5

World Latest 5.1 4.3 4.7 World Latest 3.4 4.5 3.4Previous 5.1 4.8 4.9 Previous 3.3 4.0 3.2

Advanced Economies Latest 3.0 2.1 2.8 Advanced Economies Latest 1.6 2.9 2.1Previous 3.0 2.6 3.1 Previous 1.6 2.4 1.7

Emerging Markets Latest 7.9 7.0 6.9 Emerging Markets Latest 5.8 6.6 5.1Previous 7.9 7.5 7.2 Previous 5.7 6.0 5.0

USA Latest 2.9 2.3 3.0 USA Latest 1.6 3.2 2.2Previous 2.9 3.1 3.8 Previous 1.7 2.5 1.6

Japan Latest 4.0 -0.8 3.0 Japan Latest -0.7 0.7 0.3Previous 3.9 0.7 2.3 Previous -0.7 -0.2 0.2

Euroland Latest 1.7 2.1 1.7 Euroland Latest 1.6 2.7 2.0Previous 1.7 2.1 1.9 Previous 1.6 2.6 1.9

Previous data w ere published in the Global Economics Analyst dated April 15, 2011.

World Outlook

Still Healthy Global Growth, but Risks Dominate

The global economy appears to have slowed from the rapid rates seen in Q1, although growth is still at reasonably healthy levels. But as we move into the second half of the year, the risks to our relatively benign view of the global outlook are now clearly in focus. Our 2011 and 2012 global growth forecasts have come down, and now stand at 4.3% and 4.7%, compared with 4.8% and 4.9% a quarter ago. The most important shift has been in our US growth views: our forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are now at 2.3% and 3.0%, from 3.1% and 3.8%. To a significant degree, this reflects a much softer H1 growth outcome than we initially expected. The biggest contributions at the country level outside the US are in China, where our forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are lower than at the start of the year, and in Japan for 2011, where the earthquake has seen us lower our 2011 forecast substantially but raise the 2012 forecast due to the subsequent rebuilding.

Despite weaker growth, inflation outcomes have in general been higher than we had expected, in large part due to the impact of faster commodity price acceleration earlier in the year on headline inflation rates. But for the US it applies to core inflation rates too. As a result, for the first half of the year, the reality has been less growth and a worse growth-inflation trade-off than we had initially foreseen. Reflecting that reality, our forecasts for year-end price levels in major equity markets are lower than they were last December (although still well above current levels), while our forecasts for yields and oil prices are higher.

Since then, three other risks—each of which we had flagged as a central risk to our outlook—have intensified: headwinds to underlying US demand; the Euro-zone sovereign crisis; and Chinese and emerging market (EM) inflation and tightening. How each is resolved is likely to determine much of what happens to the global economy and markets in the second half of the year.

The biggest issue probably still relates to where the underlying pace of growth in the US will settle, and how

much of the recent slowing is transitory. We are beginning to see some of the temporary pressures reverse and we expect growth to pick up in the near term. But as we look into 2011H2 and into 2012, particularly with the chances of more fiscal drag than we originally envisaged, it is harder to be sure that the US can maintain above-trend growth moving into next year. This has made us more comfortable with our US rate call (we expect short-term rates to stay low as the Fed remains on hold through 2012), but less comfortable with the cyclical view.

The European sovereign crisis is also firmly back in focus. So far, our view that the Euro-zone economy would on average hold up well on German strength and lead to an earlier ECB tightening has served us well. However, the growth divergence between core countries and periphery remains, with peripheral economies stagnating at best. And we are more concerned than we have been for some time that pressure on other European sovereigns could lead to larger stresses. In the UK, official data continue to imply an anaemic recovery in growth. But with inflation at more than twice the MPC’s target, there remains a three-way split on the committee, with some members advocating hikes, others for more QE, and a majority in favour of no change. We forecast a 25bp hike in Q4, although the risks are now almost exclusively skewed towards a later move.

Beyond Europe, the other central issue is whether tightening and inflation pressures in EM will moderate as we have been forecasting. For several of the large emerging markets, China most importantly, inflation picked up more than we expected going into the year, and policy tightening has remained more intense for longer than we had expected. Here, our conviction remains, and we still expect policy to become less restrictive (although not as loose as in 2010H2). More broadly, we expect commodity price relief to become more visible in inflation and wage outcomes in EM in H2 and we think the risk of an overly rapid EM growth slowdown is overstated.



Main Economic Forecasts Summary

For India we use WPI not CPI. Asia consists of China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Real GDP, %chg, yoy 2009 2010 2011 2012

USA -2.6 2.9 2.3 3.0Euroland -4.1 1.7 2.1 1.7Japan -6.3 4.0 -0.8 3.0

Australia 1.3 2.7 2.0 4.0Canada -2.8 3.2 2.9 3.2France -2.6 1.4 2.1 1.7Germany -4.7 3.5 3.3 1.8Italy -5.2 1.2 1.3 1.4Netherlands -3.5 1.6 2.3 2.1Spain -3.7 -0.1 1.1 1.9Sweden -5.3 5.4 4.6 3.1Switzerland -1.9 2.8 2.1 2.1UK -4.9 1.4 1.9 2.6

China 9.2 10.3 9.4 9.2Hong Kong -2.7 7.0 5.2 5.2India 8.0 8.5 7.5 7.8Indonesia 4.6 6.1 6.2 6.2Malaysia -1.6 7.2 5.4 5.6Philippines 1.1 7.6 5.2 5.5Singapore -0.8 14.5 5.5 5.4South Korea 0.3 6.2 4.3 4.4Taiwan -1.9 10.9 4.7 4.9Thailand -2.3 7.8 3.8 4.2

Czech Republic -4.0 2.2 2.5 2.7Hungary -6.7 1.2 2.5 2.6Poland 1.6 3.8 4.3 4.3Russia -7.9 4.0 5.3 5.6South Africa -1.7 2.9 3.5 4.1Turkey -4.8 8.9 7.5 3.5

Argentina 0.9 9.2 7.7 3.2Brazil -0.6 7.5 4.5 4.0Chile -1.7 5.2 6.6 5.4Mexico -6.1 5.4 4.4 4.5Venezuela -3.2 -1.5 4.0 4.3

BRICS 5.6 8.8 7.9 7.9G7 -3.7 2.8 1.9 2.7EU27 -4.0 1.8 2.2 2.1G20 -0.5 5.0 4.3 4.7Asia ex Japan 6.5 9.2 7.8 7.9Central and Eastern Europe -1.0 3.0 3.6 3.7Latin America -1.8 6.3 5.0 4.3Emerging Markets 3.4 7.9 7.0 6.9Advanced Economies -3.3 3.0 2.1 2.8World -0.6 5.1 4.3 4.7

G3

Advanced Economies

Asia

CEEMEA

Regional Aggregates

Latin America

Consumer Prices, %chg, yoy 2009 2010 2011 2012

USA -0.3 1.6 3.2 2.2Euroland 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.0Japan -1.4 -0.7 0.7 0.3

Australia 1.8 2.8 3.6 3.2Canada 0.3 1.8 2.7 2.0France 0.1 1.7 2.3 2.0Germany 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.2Italy 0.8 1.6 2.8 2.0Netherlands 1.0 0.9 2.3 1.7Spain -0.2 2.0 3.0 1.6Sweden -0.3 1.3 3.0 3.1Switzerland -0.5 0.7 0.6 1.8UK 2.2 3.3 4.2 2.2

China -0.7 3.3 4.7 3.0Hong Kong 0.6 2.4 5.3 5.0India 3.8 9.6 8.6 5.1Indonesia 4.8 5.1 6.3 6.4Malaysia 0.6 1.7 3.7 3.7Philippines 3.2 3.8 5.0 5.0Singapore 0.6 2.8 4.2 3.3South Korea 2.8 3.0 4.2 3.7Taiwan -0.9 1.0 2.3 2.4Thailand -0.9 3.3 4.1 3.8

Czech Republic 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.4Hungary 4.2 4.9 3.9 4.3Poland 3.5 2.6 4.5 3.3Russia 11.7 6.8 8.7 6.4South Africa 7.1 4.3 4.9 6.0Turkey 6.3 8.6 6.5 7.7

Argentina 6.3 10.5 9.7 12.6Brazil 4.9 5.2 6.6 6.5Chile 1.5 1.4 3.3 3.5Mexico 5.3 4.2 3.4 3.6Venezuela 28.6 29.1 26.6 21.3

BRICS 2.5 5.4 6.2 4.2G7 -0.1 1.4 2.7 1.9EU27 0.8 2.0 3.0 2.2G20 1.3 3.1 4.2 3.1Asia ex Japan 1.1 4.7 5.6 3.8Central and Eastern Europe 3.0 2.7 3.9 3.3Latin America 6.2 6.2 6.7 6.5Emerging Markets 3.8 5.8 6.6 5.1Advanced Economies 0.2 1.6 2.9 2.1World 1.7 3.4 4.5 3.4

G3

Advanced Economies

CEEMEA

Latin America

Regional Aggregates

Asia



Summary (continued)

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Current Account, % of GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012

USA -2.7 -3.2 -3.1 -3.4Euroland -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1Japan 2.8 3.6 2.0 1.9

Australia -4.2 -2.6 -2.8 -4.9Canada -3.0 -3.1 -2.3 -1.7France -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 -1.2Germany 5.6 5.6 4.3 4.1Italy -2.0 -3.5 -4.0 -4.0Netherlands 4.9 7.2 9.3 9.0Spain -5.2 -4.6 -3.0 -2.8Sweden 7.0 6.3 6.4 6.5Switzerland 11.5 14.6 16.1 15.8UK -1.7 -3.2 -1.5 -0.6

China 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.3Hong Kong 8.6 6.6 7.4 8.7India -2.8 -2.6 -3.4 -3.8Indonesia 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.6Malaysia 16.5 11.5 11.1 10.8Philippines 5.8 4.2 3.5 3.5Singapore 19.1 22.2 21.6 22.8South Korea 3.9 2.8 1.3 0.5Taiwan 11.4 9.3 8.1 8.1Thailand 8.3 4.6 5.1 4.5

Czech Republic -3.2 -3.8 -2.8 -3.0Hungary 0.4 2.1 1.9 0.6Poland -2.2 -3.4 -3.9 -4.3Russia 4.0 4.7 4.3 2.8South Africa -3.9 -2.8 -4.0 -4.5Turkey -2.1 -6.5 -8.5 -7.0

Argentina 3.6 0.8 -0.2 -0.1Brazil -1.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9Chile 1.6 1.9 0.5 -0.1Mexico -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6Venezuela 2.6 6.0 6.2 3.0

G7 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3EU27 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 0.0G20 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6Asia ex Japan 4.9 4.0 3.5 3.2Central and Eastern Europe -2.0 -2.6 -2.7 -3.2Latin America -0.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.6Emerging Markets 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.0Advanced Economies -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5World 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0

Advanced Economies

Asia

CEEMEA

Latin America

Regional Aggregates

G3 Gen. Govt. Balance, % of GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012

USA -10.3 -10.1 -8.9 -8.6Euroland -6.3 -6.0 -4.4 -3.6Japan -9.8 -9.5 -10.2 -10.1

Australia -3.3 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3Canada 0.3 -1.8 -1.2 -0.3France -7.5 -7.7 -6.3 -6.0Germany -3.0 -3.5 -2.7 -1.6Italy -5.3 -5.0 -3.9 -3.3Netherlands -5.4 -6.5 -4.7 -4.0Spain -11.1 -9.2 -6.8 -5.6Sweden -1.2 -0.4 0.6 1.7Switzerland 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2UK -8.2 -9.4 -8.0 -5.8

China -2.2 -1.6 -1.3 -1.0Hong Kong 1.6 -2.8 0.3 1.5India -8.7 -7.6 -8.1 -7.5Indonesia -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.1Malaysia -6.8 -4.7 -5.3 -5.1Philippines -3.9 -3.5 -4.0 -2.5Singapore -1.7 5.4 7.7 3.5South Korea -1.7 -0.4 0.2 1.1Taiwan -3.5 -3.2 -2.0 -1.0Thailand -4.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.3

Czech Republic -5.8 -4.7 -4.1 -3.3Hungary -4.5 -4.3 2.5 -3.0Poland -7.3 -7.9 -5.5 -3.5Russia -5.9 -4.0 -0.1 0.0South Africa -6.0 -4.3 -5.5 -4.9Turkey -5.5 -3.6 -1.0 -2.0

Argentina -0.6 0.2 -0.2 -1.1Brazil -3.3 -2.6 -3.0 -2.9Chile -4.4 -0.4 2.8 2.0Mexico -2.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.3Venezuela -5.5 -3.3 -2.4 -2.4

G7 -8.4 -8.4 -7.6 -7.0EU27 -6.5 -6.4 -4.8 -3.8G20 -6.4 -6.0 -5.1 -4.6Asia ex Japan -3.7 -2.9 -2.7 –Central and Eastern Europe -6.5 -6.6 -3.9 -3.4Latin America -2.8 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2Emerging Markets -3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3Advanced Economies -7.5 -7.4 -6.2 -5.6World -6.0 -5.5 -4.6 -4.1

Asia

CEEMEA

Latin America

Regional Aggregates

G3

Advanced Economies



Interest Rate Forecasts G3, Europe, Americas and Asia

For more details on our Interest Rate Forecasts please see The FI Monthly Analyst. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.

Asia%

Current* Forward Forecast Forward Forecast Forward ForecastJapan 3M 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

10Y 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.8Australia 3M 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.6 5.0 4.7 5.2

10Y 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.0 5.8 5.1 6.0New Zealand 3M 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.8

10Y 5.0 na 5.8 na 6.0 na 6.3Hong Kong 3M 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5Indonesia 3M 7.1 7.0 7.4 5.8 7.6 7.1 8.1Taiwan 3M 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.2Korea 3M 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.7Philippines 3M 3.6 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.0 3.6 4.5Singapore 3M 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6Thailand 3M 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.7 4.4

Close 19 July 11, mid-rates for major markets. We are currently using September 2011, December 2011 and June 2012 contracts for 3-month forw ard rates.

3-Month Horizon 6-Month Horizon 12-Month Horizon

G3 & Key Spreads%

Current* Forward Forecast Forward Forecast Forward ForecastUS 3M 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5

10Y 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.8 3.3 4.0Japan-US 10Y -184 -187 -210 -192 -215 -202 -220Euroland-US 10Y -18 -21 -28 -24 -28 -32 -53


Europe%

Current* Forward Forecast Forward Forecast Forward ForecastEuroland 3M 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.3

10Y 2.8 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.5 3.0 3.5UK 3M 0.8 1.4 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.6

10Y 3.1 3.2 3.8 3.3 4.0 3.5 4.5Denmark 3M 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4Sweden 3M 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.8

10Y 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.8 3.8 2.9 4.0Norway 3M 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.7

10Y 4.4 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.6 4.5Switzerland 3M 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.3

10Y 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.6 2.3 1.7 2.8Poland 3M 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 4.9 5.3

5Y 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.9Czech Republic 3M 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9

5Y 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.5Hungary 3M 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.3

5Y 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.3Russia 3M 4.7 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5Turkey 3M 8.8 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.9 9.6 10.7


South Africa 3M 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.5 6.75Y 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2

Americas%

Current* Forward Forecast Forward Forecast Forward ForecastUS 3M 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5

10Y 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.8 3.3 4.0Canada 3M 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.3 1.8 2.6

10Y 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.8 3.2 4.3Argentina 3M 9.5 na 9.6 na 9.8 na 9.5Brazil 3M 12.3 na 12.8 na 13.3 na 13.3Chile 3M 5.3 na 4.5 na 4.5 na 5.5Mexico 3M 4.5 na 4.5 na 4.5 na 5.5




Policy Rate Forecasts

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

USA 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Euroland 1.0 1.0 1.8 2.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5Japan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Czech Republic 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8Hungary 6.3 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0Israel 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.0 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.0Norway 1.8 2.0 2.8 3.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8Poland 3.5 3.5 4.8 5.0 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0Russia 6.3 5.0 6.0 7.3 5.3 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0South Africa 7.0 5.5 6.0 8.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0Sweden 0.3 1.3 2.8 3.8 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8Switzerland 0.3 0.3 0.8 2.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8Turkey 7.0 6.5 7.3 9.3 6.3 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.3UK 0.5 0.5 0.8 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.0

Brazil 8.8 10.8 13.3 13.3 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3Canada 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5Chile 0.5 3.3 6.0 6.5 4.0 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5Colombia 3.5 3.0 5.0 6.0 3.5 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.3 6.0 6.0Dominican Republic 4.0 5.0 9.0 9.0 6.0 6.8 8.3 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0Mexico 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.5Peru 1.3 3.0 4.5 4.5 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

Australia 3.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0China 5.3 5.8 6.6 6.6 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6India 5.0 6.8 8.0 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.5Indonesia 6.5 6.5 7.3 8.0 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.0Malaysia 2.0 2.8 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5New Zealand 2.5 3.0 2.5 3.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.8Philippines 4.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.0South Korea 2.0 2.5 3.8 4.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3Taiwan 1.3 1.6 2.3 2.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9Thailand 1.3 2.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0

ASIA

Policy Rates (%, eop) 2011 2012

G3

EMEA

AMERICAS



Exchange Rate Forecasts Dollar Crosses

Current* Forward Forecast Forward Forecast Forward Forecast 5-Yr Forecast**

G3EUR/$ 1.41 1.41 1.45 1.41 1.50 1.40 1.55 1.18$/JPY 79.19 79.14 82.00 79.04 82.00 78.76 86.00 107.93EMEA£/$ 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.67 1.61 1.85 1.51$/NOK 5.53 5.56 5.31 5.60 5.13 5.66 4.90 6.34$/SEK 6.51 6.55 6.00 6.58 5.73 6.65 5.55 7.09$/CHF 0.82 0.82 0.85 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.81 1.20$/CZK 17.33 17.34 16.69 17.34 15.90 17.37 15.23 19.39$/HUF 192.10 194.18 185.52 196.16 180.67 199.52 174.84 241.46$/PLN 2.84 2.87 2.73 2.89 2.64 2.93 2.54 3.01$/RUB 28.07 28.34 27.10 28.62 25.90 29.23 25.10 30.00$/TRY 1.66 1.69 1.65 1.71 1.57 1.77 1.47 2.25$/ILS 3.43 3.45 3.40 3.47 3.35 3.50 3.20 4.26$/ZAR 6.99 7.08 7.00 7.18 6.80 7.38 6.45 6.50Americas $/ARS 4.12 4.23 4.15 4.35 4.25 4.64 4.50 6.00$/BRL 1.57 1.60 1.50 1.63 1.60 1.70 1.70 2.70$/C$ 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.92 1.13$/MXN 11.66 11.76 11.55 11.87 11.50 12.10 11.50 12.51$/CLP 461.83 466.83 460.00 471.60 460.00 481.83 460.00 409.42$/PEN 2.74 2.75 2.78 2.77 2.80 2.79 2.82 2.96$/COP 1757.35 1764.20 1750.00 1770.40 1750.00 1786.10 1800.00 2133.93$/VEF 4.29 na 4.30 na 4.30 na 4.30 7.00AsiaA$/$ 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.03 1.06 0.85$/CNY 6.46 6.45 6.37 6.43 6.28 6.40 6.10 5.50$/HKD 7.80 7.79 7.80 7.79 7.80 7.77 7.80 7.80$/INR 44.45 45.00 46.00 45.53 46.20 46.53 47.00 56.00$/KRW 1055.60 1062.10 1040.00 1067.10 1030.00 1074.10 1010.00 975.00$/MYR 3.00 3.01 2.98 3.02 2.90 3.04 2.85 2.69NZ$/$ 0.86 0.85 0.78 0.84 0.79 0.83 0.80 0.63$/SGD 1.22 1.22 1.23 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.18 1.15$/TWD 28.89 28.79 28.00 28.61 27.80 28.30 27.50 26.20$/THB 29.91 30.10 29.75 30.26 29.50 30.61 29.30 35.83$/IDR 8535.00 8592.50 8500.00 8680.00 8450.00 8860.00 8350.00 10738.63$/PHP 42.80 42.94 41.30 43.05 40.80 43.27 40.30 50.00

12-Month Horizon

* Close 19 July 11

3-Month Horizon 6-Month Horizon

**5Yr Forecasts have been discussed in Global View point 11/08 "FX Trends During the Soft Patch".

For more details on our FX Forecasts please see The Global FX Monthly. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.



Euro Crosses

For more details on our FX Forecasts please see The Global FX Monthly. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.

Current* Forward Forecast Forward Forecast Forward Forecast 5-Yr Forecast**

G3EUR/$ 1.41 1.41 1.45 1.41 1.50 1.40 1.55 1.18EUR/JPY 111.92 111.55 118.90 111.15 123.00 110.32 133.30 127.58EMEAEUR/£ 0.88 0.88 0.90 0.87 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.78EUR/NOK 7.81 7.84 7.70 7.87 7.70 7.93 7.60 7.50EUR/SEK 9.21 9.23 8.70 9.25 8.60 9.31 8.60 8.38EUR/CHF 1.16 1.16 1.23 1.16 1.23 1.15 1.25 1.42EUR/CZK 24.49 24.44 24.20 24.39 23.85 24.33 23.60 22.92EUR/HUF 271.50 273.71 269.00 275.86 271.00 279.46 271.00 285.42EUR/PLN 4.02 4.04 3.96 4.06 3.96 4.10 3.93 3.56EUR/RUB 39.67 39.95 39.30 40.26 38.85 40.94 38.91 35.46EUR/TRY 2.34 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.36 2.48 2.28 2.67EUR/ILS 4.85 4.87 4.93 4.88 5.03 4.91 4.96 5.04EUR/ZAR 9.88 9.98 10.15 10.09 10.20 10.34 10.00 7.69Americas EUR/ARS 5.83 5.96 6.02 6.11 6.38 6.50 6.98 7.09EUR/BRL 2.21 2.25 2.18 2.29 2.40 2.38 2.64 3.19EUR/C$ 1.34 1.34 1.39 1.34 1.41 1.34 1.43 1.33EUR/MXN 16.48 16.58 16.75 16.69 17.25 16.95 17.83 14.78EUR/CLP 652.72 658.03 667.00 663.23 690.00 674.88 713.00 483.95EUR/PEN 3.87 3.88 4.03 3.89 4.20 3.91 4.37 3.50EUR/COP 2483.77 2486.81 2537.50 2489.79 2625.00 2501.75 2790.00 2522.41EUR/VEF 6.07 na 6.24 na 6.45 na 6.67 8.27AsiaEUR/A$ 1.32 1.33 1.38 1.34 1.42 1.36 1.46 1.39EUR/CNY 9.14 9.09 9.24 9.04 9.42 8.96 9.46 6.50EUR/HKD 11.02 10.98 11.31 10.95 11.70 10.89 12.09 9.22EUR/INR 62.82 63.43 66.70 64.03 69.30 65.18 72.85 66.19EUR/KRW 1491.94 1497.13 1508.00 1500.71 1545.00 1504.47 1565.50 1152.50EUR/MYR 4.24 4.25 4.32 4.25 4.35 4.26 4.42 3.18EUR/NZD 1.65 1.66 1.86 1.66 1.90 1.68 1.94 1.88EUR/SGD 1.72 1.71 1.78 1.71 1.82 1.70 1.83 1.36EUR/TWD 40.83 40.58 40.60 40.23 41.70 39.63 42.63 30.97EUR/THB 42.27 42.43 43.14 42.55 44.25 42.87 45.42 42.36EUR/IDR 12063.03 12111.95 12325.00 12207.07 12675.00 12410.02 12942.50 12693.59EUR/PHP 60.49 60.53 59.89 60.54 61.20 60.60 62.47 59.10


* Close 19 July 11

**5Yr Forecasts have been discussed in Global View point 11/08 "FX Trends During the Soft Patch".



Monetary and Fiscal Conditions Broad Money Growth

Definitions: Brazil, M4; Canada, M2; Chile, M3 eop; China, M2; Ecuador, M2; Euroland, M3; Hong Kong, M2; India, M3; Indonesia, M2; Japan, M2; Malaysia, M3; Philippines, M2; Singapore, M3; South Korea, M3; Switzerland, M3; Taiwan, M2; Thailand, M2; UK, M4; USA, M2; Venezuela, M2 eop. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Australia: Currency + all ADI deposits of the private non-ADI sector + non-deposit borrowings from the private sector by AFIs - holdings of currency and bank deposits by RFCs and cash management trusts. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Australia 8.3 5.1 – – 4.1 3.2 5.4 8.0 7.6 – – – – – – –

Brazil 6.4 20.8 14.0 12.5 16.0 14.7 20.8 24.6 21.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.5 11.5 10.5 10.0Canada 24.1 -2.9 5.3 6.9 7.5 6.4 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.0Chile -1.4 11.2 14.0 12.0 4.2 6.4 5.4 11.2 11.3 16.8 13.6 14.0 14.0 15.0 15.0 12.0China 27.6 19.7 16.0 16.0 22.5 18.5 19.0 19.7 16.6 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0Denmark 3.2 9.3 5.6 3.7 2.4 3.5 6.4 5.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 5.6 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.7Ecuador 10.6 19.0 6.9 -2.7 – – – – – – – – – – – –

Euroland -0.1 1.6 4.2 6.2 -0.1 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.3 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.2Hong Kong 10.7 7.8 5.0 5.0 9.8 3.3 8.9 7.8 7.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0India 17.5 16.1 17.1 17.0 15.2 15.6 19.1 16.1 17.6 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0Indonesia 13.0 15.4 18.0 20.3 10.2 12.8 12.7 15.4 16.1 17.0 17.0 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3Japan 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0Malaysia 9.2 7.0 10.0 9.0 8.7 8.8 8.5 7.0 8.2 9.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0Mexico 6.5 12.9 – – 7.1 10.7 13.0 12.9 13.2 – – – – – – –

Peru 5.5 45.3 -2.8 0.7 16.3 20.9 26.5 45.3 32.9 34.6 17.4 -2.8 4.5 1.0 8.8 0.7Philippines 7.7 10.7 15.0 16.7 9.8 9.6 10.1 10.7 10.6 14.0 15.0 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7Singapore 10.5 8.4 7.0 7.0 8.2 6.9 7.8 8.4 8.6 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0South Africa 5.7 4.3 – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

South Korea 9.4 12.1 9.7 9.6 9.7 8.9 7.1 12.1 9.1 8.5 9.2 9.7 8.2 8.4 8.2 9.6Sweden -1.5 9.3 4.6 5.4 2.3 2.7 8.0 9.3 8.8 7.0 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.4Switzerland 6.0 6.7 5.6 6.7 5.7 7.4 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.5 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.3Taiwan 5.7 5.3 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0Thailand 6.8 10.9 7.0 7.0 6.1 7.0 9.9 10.9 13.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0UK 11.5 10.6 9.6 8.7 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.7USA 7.9 2.3 5.1 4.6 1.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 4.5 6.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 3.7 5.2 5.0Venezuela 21.2 21.0 29.0 27.0 20.9 17.7 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 25.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 27.0Advanced Economies 5.5 3.0 4.7 5.1 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.9 4.7 5.3 5.3World 9.1 7.6 – – 7.1 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 – – – – – – –

2010 2011 2012Broad Money, % change, yoy

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% chg Broad Money Growth

JapanUSAWorld

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

%chg Broad Money Growth

EurolandUK



Budget Balances


Gen Govt Bal, US$bn 2009 2010 2011 2012Australia -32.4 -44.3 -28.1 -4.7Brazil -53.1 -53.5 -77.3 -76.2Canada 5.0 -30.0 -20.0 -5.0Chile 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0China -108.3 -96.2 -95.1 -85.8Colombia -6.7 -10.1 -9.9 -8.6Czech Republic -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5Denmark -8.5 -15.2 -13.8 -10.9Ecuador -2.2 -1.2 -3.7 -4.0Euroland -789.6 -742.5 -604.9 -521.0France -198.6 -201.0 -184.6 -184.7Germany -101.6 -117.7 -100.8 -63.1Hong Kong 3.3 -6.6 0.6 4.0Hungary -5.8 -5.7 3.8 -4.9India -120.3 -131.6 -165.4 -169.5Indonesia -8.6 -14.2 -19.0 -20.7Italy -112.6 -104.0 -90.4 -81.6Japan -492.7 -508.7 -571.4 -557.4Kazakhstan -3.3 -3.6 -5.0 -3.6Malaysia -13.2 -11.2 -15.1 -16.2Mexico -2.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3Netherlands -43.0 -51.5 -42.0 -37.9Peru -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.2Philippines -6.3 -7.0 -9.4 -6.5Poland -9.8 -12.4 -10.6 -7.6Russia -71.3 -58.0 0.0 2.9Singapore -3.1 12.0 20.7 10.6South Africa -17.4 -15.7 -23.3 -23.9South Korea -13.8 -4.2 2.7 14.4Spain -163.5 -132.5 -108.6 -94.8Sweden -4.7 -1.9 3.4 10.5Switzerland 1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.3Taiwan -13.1 -13.6 -10.2 -5.3Thailand -10.6 -3.1 -3.3 -1.1Turkey -33.7 -26.5 -7.9 -18.8UK -174.0 -213.0 -215.6 -169.7USA -1450.0 -1475.3 -1363.5 -1371.1Venezuela -4.0 -1.5 -0.5 -0.5Advanced Economies -2988.6 -3064.0 -2809.3 -2619.9Emerging Markets -473.1 -444.2 -441.1 -437.8World -3461.7 -3508.3 -3250.4 -3057.7

Gen Govt Bal, % of GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012Australia -3.3 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3Brazil -3.3 -2.6 -3.0 -2.9Canada 0.3 -1.8 -1.2 -0.3Chile -4.4 -0.4 2.8 2.0China -2.2 -1.6 -1.3 -1.0Colombia -2.8 -3.2 -3.5 -2.5Czech Republic -5.8 -4.7 -4.1 -3.3Denmark -2.7 -4.8 -4.2 -3.2Ecuador -4.3 -2.1 -6.0 -6.0Euroland -6.3 -6.0 -4.4 -3.6France -7.5 -7.7 -6.3 -6.0Germany -3.0 -3.5 -2.7 -1.6Hong Kong 1.6 -2.8 0.3 1.5Hungary -4.5 -4.3 2.5 -3.0India -8.7 -7.6 -8.1 -7.5Indonesia -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.1Italy -5.3 -5.0 -3.9 -3.3Japan -9.8 -9.5 -10.2 -10.1Kazakhstan -2.9 -2.5 -2.9 -1.8Malaysia -6.8 -4.7 -5.3 -5.1Mexico -2.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.3Netherlands -5.4 -6.5 -4.7 -4.0Peru -1.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.1Philippines -3.9 -3.5 -4.0 -2.5Poland -7.3 -7.9 -5.5 -3.5Russia -5.9 -4.0 -0.1 0.0Singapore -1.7 5.4 7.7 3.5South Africa -6.0 -4.3 -5.5 -4.9South Korea -1.7 -0.4 0.2 1.1Spain -11.1 -9.2 -6.8 -5.6Sweden -1.2 -0.4 0.6 1.7Switzerland 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2Taiwan -3.5 -3.2 -2.0 -1.0Thailand -4.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.3Turkey -5.5 -3.6 -1.0 -2.0UK -8.2 -9.4 -8.0 -5.8USA -10.3 -10.1 -8.9 -8.6Venezuela -5.5 -3.3 -2.4 -2.4Advanced Economies -7.5 -7.4 -6.2 -5.6Emerging Markets -3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3World -6.0 -5.5 -4.6 -4.1



Government Debt Ratio


Govt Debt Ratio % GDP 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Australia 24.6 21.8 13.0 13.2 21.0 28.7 30.5 30.2Brazil 46.5 47.3 45.5 38.5 42.8 40.4 39.8 39.0Canada 71.6 70.3 66.5 71.3 83.4 84.0 – –Chile 7.3 5.3 4.1 5.2 6.1 7.4 7.3 7.2Colombia 46.4 43.0 40.0 39.5 42.8 43.0 44.0 43.2Czech Republic 30.4 29.4 28.9 30.0 35.3 38.6 41.0 42.5Denmark 37.8 32.1 27.5 34.5 41.8 44.5 46.9 48.2Dominican Republic 20.1 20.6 18.3 24.5 28.3 28.6 31.4 34.8Euroland 70.1 68.5 66.3 70.0 79.5 85.4 87.6 86.9France 66.4 63.6 63.8 67.6 78.1 84.1 88.5 93.0Germany 68.1 67.5 64.8 66.3 73.5 78.3 78.4 76.9Hungary 61.8 65.7 66.1 72.3 78.4 79.6 73.5 73.1Indonesia 46.3 46.0 42.5 38.2 34.0 29.8 28.0 27.0Italy 105.8 106.5 103.6 106.3 116.0 118.8 119.2 118.4Japan 191.1 190.0 187.6 199.0 214.0 220.0 226.3 229.4Malaysia 57.6 51.2 48.2 49.9 63.9 49.0 49.0 49.0Mexico 24.0 24.7 15.3 17.3 29.4 25.6 24.9 23.2Netherlands 51.8 47.4 45.3 58.2 60.8 65.4 66.8 67.9New Zealand 23.3 21.4 18.2 17.4 23.4 28.3 35.5 36.2Peru 37.7 33.0 29.7 24.2 27.3 23.5 22.4 21.4Philippines 82.2 73.3 63.1 70.0 65.3 58.5 70.0 70.0Poland 47.1 47.8 45.0 47.1 50.9 55.1 55.2 55.0Russia 15.8 8.3 6.4 5.3 7.0 7.7 8.4 9.7Spain 43.0 39.6 36.1 39.8 53.3 60.1 65.9 70.2South Africa 31.5 28.4 26.0 26.2 31.3 32.1 37.1 41.0South Korea 30.6 32.2 29.7 29.0 32.5 33.3 32.6 34.8Sweden 50.4 45.0 40.0 38.3 41.9 39.6 36.7 33.3Switzerland 28.1 25.2 23.2 22.4 20.7 20.6 20.5 19.9Taiwan 48.7 46.2 43.7 46.3 51.5 50.6 50.4 48.5Thailand 46.4 40.4 37.5 38.2 43.9 42.4 42.2 42.1Turkey 68.5 60.4 61.3 57.3 – – – –Ukraine 17.3 15.6 12.6 17.6 32.6 38.9 40.8 39.3UK 41.5 42.0 41.6 44.7 52.2 57.7 60.4 61.9Venezuela 32.5 24.0 19.5 14.2 18.4 25.3 24.6 23.5Advanced Economies 73.4 72.1 70.8 76.2 87.2 93.4 93.3 95.0



Demand and Output Real GDP


2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina 0.9 9.2 7.7 3.2 6.8 11.8 8.6 9.2 9.9 7.1 8.5 5.4 2.3 2.1 3.3 4.9Australia 1.3 2.7 2.0 4.0 2.3 3.2 2.5 2.7 1.0 1.1 2.8 3.2 5.3 4.4 3.4 2.9Brazil -0.6 7.5 4.5 4.0 9.3 9.2 6.7 5.0 4.2 4.8 4.1 4.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.0Canada -2.8 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.1 3.6 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.3Chile -1.7 5.2 6.6 5.4 1.7 6.4 6.9 5.8 9.8 6.0 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.2China 9.2 10.3 9.4 9.2 11.9 10.3 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.3Colombia 1.5 4.3 5.5 4.9 4.1 4.7 3.6 4.8 5.1 4.9 6.4 5.7 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9Czech Republic -4.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 1.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.6Denmark -5.2 1.7 1.7 2.1 -1.1 2.3 3.3 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.1 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.7Dominican Republic 3.5 7.8 5.4 5.5 7.5 7.5 7.7 8.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.5Ecuador 0.4 3.6 3.9 3.5 0.4 2.5 4.5 7.0 5.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5Euroland -4.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 0.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8France -2.6 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0Germany -4.7 3.5 3.3 1.8 2.3 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.8 3.1 2.7 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9Greece -2.3 -4.4 -3.8 0.2 -2.9 -3.1 – – – – – – – – – –Hong Kong -2.7 7.0 5.2 5.2 8.0 6.7 6.9 6.4 7.2 4.3 4.5 5.0 4.7 5.8 5.5 5.0Hungary -6.7 1.2 2.5 2.6 -0.8 0.5 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9India 8.0 8.5 7.5 7.8 9.3 8.9 8.3 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.7Indonesia 4.6 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.6 6.1 5.8 6.9 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.2Israel 0.8 4.7 4.5 3.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –Italy -5.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.2Japan -6.3 4.0 -0.8 3.0 5.6 3.1 5.0 2.2 -1.0 -1.6 -1.5 0.3 2.1 3.8 3.3 2.6Kazakhstan 1.2 7.0 6.5 6.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –Malaysia -1.6 7.2 5.4 5.6 10.1 9.0 5.3 4.8 4.6 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.1 5.4 5.4 5.6Mexico -6.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 7.6 5.1 4.4 4.6 4.3 3.8 4.7 5.0 5.0 4.4 3.8Netherlands -3.5 1.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2New Zealand -2.0 1.7 2.5 3.9 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.0 3.3Nigeria 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –Norway -1.6 0.3 1.6 2.7 0.0 1.1 -1.2 1.2 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.0 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.2Panama 3.0 7.5 7.8 7.0 6.2 6.5 8.5 8.6 9.7 8.0 7.0 6.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0Peru 0.9 8.8 6.4 6.2 6.2 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.8 3.6 6.1 7.2 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.0Philippines 1.1 7.6 5.2 5.5 8.4 8.9 7.3 6.1 4.9 4.5 5.2 6.1 5.6 5.9 5.4 5.0Poland 1.6 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.1 3.6 4.6 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4Russia -7.9 4.0 5.3 5.6 3.5 5.0 3.1 4.5 4.1 4.4 6.3 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.1Singapore -0.8 14.5 5.5 5.4 16.4 19.4 10.5 12.0 8.3 2.8 5.3 5.9 5.3 5.6 5.2 5.6South Africa -1.7 2.9 3.5 4.1 1.4 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.2South Korea 0.3 6.2 4.3 4.4 8.5 7.5 4.4 4.7 4.2 3.7 4.2 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.6Spain -3.7 -0.1 1.1 1.9 -1.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1Sweden -5.3 5.4 4.6 3.1 2.9 4.5 6.6 7.6 6.5 5.3 3.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.6Switzerland -1.9 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3Taiwan -1.9 10.9 4.7 4.9 13.6 12.9 10.7 7.1 6.5 4.1 3.9 4.6 4.2 5.5 5.1 4.7Thailand -2.3 7.8 3.8 4.2 12.0 9.2 6.6 3.8 3.0 3.7 4.4 4.2 3.4 4.2 4.4 4.8Turkey -4.8 8.9 7.5 3.5 12.0 10.3 5.2 9.2 11.0 7.8 9.2 2.8 0.8 2.7 4.0 6.0UK -4.9 1.4 1.9 2.6 -0.3 1.6 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.3Ukraine -14.8 4.2 4.3 5.0 4.8 5.5 3.6 3.3 5.3 2.0 6.4 4.8 5.1 2.7 6.7 5.1USA -2.6 2.9 2.3 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2Venezuela -3.2 -1.5 4.0 4.3 -4.8 -1.7 -0.2 0.5 4.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.2 6.0 5.0 2.0Vietnam 5.3 6.8 5.6 6.5 5.9 6.3 7.4 7.2 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.5 8.8 7.2 5.7 5.2Advanced Economies -3.3 3.0 2.1 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 2.7 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9Emerging Markets 3.4 7.9 7.0 6.9 8.4 8.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.7World -0.6 5.1 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.6

2010 2011 2012Real GDP, % change, yoy



Real GDP – Since 2005 and 10-Year Trend

Trend defined as the geometric average of annual Real GDP growth rates for the past 10 years (1998-2007). Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008.

Real GDP, % change, yoy 10 Yr Trend 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Argentina 3.1 9.2 8.5 8.7 6.8 0.9 9.2 7.7 3.2Australia 3.3 3.2 2.5 4.6 2.6 1.3 2.7 2.0 4.0Brazil 3.4 3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 -0.6 7.5 4.5 4.0Canada 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.2 0.7 -2.8 3.2 2.9 3.2Chile 3.8 5.6 4.6 4.6 3.7 -1.7 5.2 6.6 5.4China 9.8 10.4 11.7 13.0 9.6 9.2 10.3 9.4 9.2Colombia 3.6 4.7 6.7 6.9 3.5 1.5 4.3 5.5 4.9Czech Republic 4.0 6.4 7.0 6.1 2.3 -4.0 2.2 2.5 2.7Denmark 1.6 2.4 3.4 1.6 -1.1 -5.2 1.7 1.5 2.2Dominican Republic na 9.3 10.7 8.5 5.3 3.5 7.8 5.4 5.5Ecuador 3.5 5.7 4.8 2.0 7.2 0.4 3.6 3.9 3.5Euroland 2.1 1.8 3.2 2.8 0.3 -4.1 1.7 2.1 1.7France 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.2 -0.2 -2.6 1.4 2.1 1.7Germany 1.5 0.9 3.6 2.8 0.7 -4.7 3.5 3.3 1.8Greece 3.1 2.3 4.5 4.3 1.3 -2.3 -4.0 -2.6 1.4Hong Kong 5.2 7.1 7.0 6.4 2.3 -2.7 7.0 5.2 5.2Hungary 3.5 3.2 3.6 0.8 0.8 -6.7 1.2 2.5 2.6India 7.1 9.5 9.7 9.0 6.7 8.0 8.5 7.5 7.8Indonesia 4.7 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.0 4.6 6.1 6.2 6.2Israel 3.9 4.9 5.7 5.3 4.2 0.8 4.7 4.5 3.5Italy 1.2 0.8 2.1 1.4 -1.3 -5.2 1.2 1.3 1.4Japan 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.4 -1.2 -6.3 4.0 -0.8 3.0Kazakhstan 8.6 9.7 10.7 8.9 3.3 1.2 7.0 6.5 6.5Malaysia 5.4 5.0 5.8 6.2 4.7 -1.6 7.2 5.4 5.6Mexico 3.0 3.2 5.2 3.3 1.2 -6.1 5.4 4.4 4.5Netherlands 2.4 2.2 3.5 3.9 1.8 -3.5 1.6 2.3 2.1New Zealand 3.3 3.2 1.0 2.8 -0.2 -2.0 1.7 2.5 3.9Nigeria 5.7 5.4 6.2 7.0 6.0 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.5Norway 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.7 0.6 -1.6 0.3 1.6 2.7Panama 5.8 7.2 8.5 12.1 10.1 3.0 7.5 7.8 7.0Peru 5.0 6.4 7.9 8.9 9.8 0.9 8.8 6.4 6.2Philippines 4.9 5.0 5.3 7.1 3.8 1.1 7.6 5.2 5.5Poland 4.2 3.6 6.2 6.8 5.0 1.6 3.8 4.3 4.3Russia 6.9 6.4 8.2 8.5 5.2 -7.9 4.0 5.3 5.6Singapore 5.5 6.6 8.2 7.8 1.8 -0.8 14.5 5.5 5.4South Africa 3.9 5.3 5.6 5.6 3.6 -1.7 2.9 3.5 4.1South Korea 5.5 4.2 5.1 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2 4.3 4.4Spain 3.5 3.6 4.0 3.6 0.9 -3.7 -0.1 1.1 1.9Sweden 2.9 3.2 4.6 3.4 -0.8 -5.3 5.4 4.6 3.1Switzerland 2.0 2.6 3.6 3.6 1.9 -1.9 2.8 2.1 2.1Taiwan 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.7 0.7 -1.9 10.9 4.7 4.9Thailand 4.8 4.5 5.1 4.9 2.5 -2.3 7.8 3.8 4.2Turkey 3.9 8.4 6.9 4.7 0.7 -4.8 8.9 7.5 3.5UK 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.7 -0.1 -4.9 1.4 1.9 2.6Ukraine 6.3 2.7 7.3 7.9 2.3 -14.8 4.2 4.3 5.0USA 2.6 3.1 2.7 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.9 2.3 3.0Venezuela 3.7 10.3 9.9 8.8 5.3 -3.2 -1.5 4.0 4.3World 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.0 2.6 -0.6 5.1 4.3 4.7



Real GDP per Capita %yoy

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Argentina 8.0 7.3 7.5 5.6 -0.2 8.0 6.5 3.0Australia 1.8 1.0 2.8 0.6 -0.9 0.9 1.1 3.1Brazil 1.8 2.6 4.7 3.8 -1.9 6.1 3.2 3.7Canada 2.0 1.4 1.6 -0.5 -3.9 2.0 1.8 2.2Chile 4.4 2.8 3.5 2.6 -2.6 4.2 5.5 4.3China 9.7 11.1 12.4 9.0 8.7 9.9 8.9 8.7Colombia 3.4 5.4 5.6 2.3 0.3 3.1 3.8 3.2Czech Republic 6.5 6.2 5.6 1.3 -4.1 2.2 2.5 2.7Denmark 2.2 3.1 1.2 -1.6 -5.8 1.3 1.4 1.8Ecuador 4.2 3.2 0.6 5.7 -1.1 2.1 2.5 2.1Egypt 2.4 4.4 1.7 5.0 -0.8 3.9 -1.0 1.0Euroland 1.1 2.7 2.2 -0.3 -4.6 1.4 1.6 1.2France 1.1 1.9 1.6 -0.8 -3.2 0.9 1.5 1.1Germany 1.0 3.7 2.9 1.0 -4.4 3.6 3.5 2.0Greece 1.9 4.8 3.8 0.6 -2.7 -4.8 -4.1 -0.2Hong Kong 8.4 5.9 5.8 1.7 -3.3 5.9 4.5 4.5Hungary 3.4 3.8 1.0 1.1 -6.5 1.4 2.5 2.6India 8.4 8.1 7.5 5.4 6.5 4.6 5.9 6.2Indonesia 4.0 4.2 4.9 4.7 3.3 4.8 4.9 4.9Israel 3.0 3.8 3.5 2.4 -1.6 3.3 1.8 0.9Italy -0.2 1.6 0.7 -2.1 -5.9 0.8 0.6 0.8Japan 1.9 2.0 2.4 -1.1 -6.1 4.1 -0.6 3.2Kazakhstan 8.7 9.4 7.7 1.9 -0.2 5.5 4.9 5.0Malaysia 2.9 3.8 3.9 3.6 -2.6 6.1 4.4 4.6Mexico 2.3 4.2 2.3 0.3 -6.9 4.6 3.5 3.7Netherlands 1.9 3.3 3.8 1.5 -4.0 1.1 2.0 1.8New Zealand 2.0 -0.2 1.8 -1.0 -3.3 0.7 1.6 3.2Nigeria 2.6 3.4 4.1 3.1 4.1 4.9 4.1 4.6Norway 1.1 0.8 1.6 -0.8 -2.7 -0.1 0.6 1.9Panama 5.3 6.7 10.3 8.3 1.4 5.8 6.2 5.4Peru 5.1 6.5 7.5 8.4 -0.4 7.4 5.0 4.8Philippines 3.0 3.4 5.2 1.8 -0.9 5.5 3.2 3.3Poland 3.6 6.2 6.9 5.0 1.6 3.8 4.3 4.3Russia 7.4 8.7 8.7 5.3 -7.9 4.0 5.1 5.4Singapore 1.8 8.2 3.1 -2.4 -4.6 10.1 1.4 1.3South Africa 4.1 4.4 4.4 2.4 -2.8 1.8 2.4 2.9South Korea 4.2 4.7 4.7 2.1 0.3 6.2 4.3 4.4Spain 1.9 2.3 1.9 -0.9 -4.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.6Sweden 2.7 3.8 2.6 -1.6 -6.1 4.5 4.4 2.6Switzerland 1.9 3.0 3.0 0.8 -4.4 2.3 1.5 1.5Taiwan 3.7 4.4 5.2 0.7 -1.9 10.9 4.7 4.9Thailand 3.4 5.3 9.4 1.9 -2.5 7.1 3.3 3.9Turkey 7.1 5.6 3.5 -0.5 -6.1 7.5 6.1 2.1UK 1.5 2.2 2.0 -0.7 -5.5 0.7 1.2 1.9Ukraine 3.5 8.0 8.5 2.8 -14.5 4.7 4.8 5.5USA 2.1 1.7 1.0 -1.0 -3.5 2.0 1.5 1.6Venezuela 8.2 8.2 7.2 3.8 -4.6 -2.9 2.5 2.8Vietnam 7.0 6.8 7.2 5.0 5.5 5.3 4.3 5.1

Real GDP per Capita, % change, yoy



Nominal GDP per Capita USD (Level and %yoy)

Nominal GDP per Capita 2009 2010 2011 2012

Argentina 7595 9012 10567 10895Australia 45000 55107 66181 68531Brazil 8389 10697 12990 13193Canada 38478 46046 49313 52596Chile 9531 11908 14260 15387China 3739 4398 5275 6265Colombia 5283 6351 7099 7351Czech Republic 18433 18592 21748 23460Denmark 7551 7654 7951 8274Ecuador 3716 4059 4306 4549Egypt 2262 2704 3255 3192Euroland 37958 37571 41810 44098France 42149 41465 46086 48466Germany 40809 41161 46478 49926Greece 20807 20295 19759 19908Hong Kong 29772 31690 34517 37833Hungary 13080 13373 15216 16355India 1194 1440 1673 1825Indonesia 2339 3020 3559 4085Israel 26051 28642 32155 35568Italy 35267 34590 38336 40723Japan 39316 42134 43173 44487Malaysia 6928 8392 9909 11393Mexico 8179 9546 11083 12026Netherlands 48313 47869 53647 57420New Zealand 31147 34456 37251 38590Norway 74369 85392 105399 116720Panama 7197 7753 8407 9123Peru 4335 5186 5655 6028Philippines 1748 2123 2480 2666Poland 11350 12472 15316 17329Russia 8707 10510 13337 15649Singapore 36660 42827 49519 54321South Africa 5820 7296 8375 9556South Korea 17088 20738 24051 27244Spain 32054 31160 34129 35844Sweden 43053 48727 61195 66232Switzerland 63478 67808 79074 83061Taiwan 16409 18623 21524 23621Thailand 4150 4989 5682 6334Turkey 8527 10076 10759 12665UK 34428 36451 42732 46219USA 46417 47807 49376 50980Venezuela 11605 8339 10329 12533Vietnam 1080 1186 1332 1477

Advanced Economies 38274 39510 43009 44998Emerging Markets 3517 4164 4904 5534Asia 4425 5012 5646 6246BRICS 3238 3873 4582 5269Central and Eastern Europe 12909 13794 16491 18271G10 43026 45399 48680 50445G20 11423 12227 13491 14412EU27 36215 36207 40396 42812Europe 36760 36861 41206 43691Latin America 7694 9090 10538 10974

Aggregates

in USDNominal GDP per Capita, 2009 2010 2011 2012

Argentina 9.7 24.6 23.7 16.9Australia -1.4 5.5 5.7 4.9Brazil 3.7 13.9 11.6 10.2Canada -5.7 5.0 5.3 4.7Chile 1.6 13.3 8.1 7.4China 9.8 17.7 20.0 18.7Colombia 4.5 6.6 7.8 6.3Czech Republic -1.7 1.0 4.3 4.5Denmark -5.5 4.8 3.9 4.1Ecuador -5.4 9.2 6.1 5.7Euroland -3.6 2.3 3.1 2.3France -2.7 1.7 3.0 2.0Germany -3.1 4.2 4.6 4.2Greece -1.5 -2.5 -2.6 0.8Hong Kong -3.4 6.4 8.9 9.6Hungary -2.4 4.3 7.1 4.8India 13.1 20.6 16.1 9.0Indonesia 5.4 29.1 17.9 14.7Israel 3.3 4.4 3.8 3.5Italy -3.8 1.4 2.7 3.1Japan -6.5 1.9 -1.0 3.4Malaysia -14.3 21.7 18.1 15.4Mexico -3.2 9.1 7.7 7.4Netherlands -4.4 2.4 3.9 3.8New Zealand -3.3 0.7 1.6 3.2Norway -2.7 -0.1 0.6 1.9Panama 1.4 5.8 6.2 5.4Peru 1.7 12.2 7.9 7.1Philippines -5.1 21.4 16.8 7.5Poland -18.7 9.0 8.8 7.6Russia -26.0 20.7 30.2 25.9Singapore -6.9 16.8 15.5 9.4South Africa 4.2 10.0 8.3 8.0South Korea -10.6 21.6 16.4 13.5Spain -4.3 0.5 1.5 1.9Sweden -4.5 6.0 6.2 4.4Switzerland -4.1 1.6 2.0 3.4Taiwan -5.7 14.0 15.6 10.2Thailand -4.6 20.2 13.9 11.5Turkey 1.8 11.1 8.2 21.7UK -4.1 3.6 5.4 4.9USA -2.6 3.0 3.3 3.2Venezuela 3.3 -28.1 23.9 21.3Vietnam 3.4 9.9 12.3 11.0

%change, yoy



Nominal GDP – Level

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Nominal GDP quarterly path is estimated by our economists as the Chinese government only releases year-to-date data and other data anomalies.

Nominal GDP, US$bn 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Argentina 182 213 261 325 307 368 437 451Australia 736 785 955 1056 990 1234 1496 1563Brazil 886 1087 1382 1613 1625 2099 2582 2631Canada 1138 1270 1401 1563 1295 1568 1696 1828Chile 118 147 164 171 161 203 246 268China 2244 2658 3393 4521 4990 5892 7108 8483Colombia 147 163 208 247 238 289 328 346Czech Republic 125 140 172 221 192 194 227 245Denmark 35 36 42 47 42 42 44 46Dominican Republic 34 36 41 46 47 52 55 59Ecuador 37 42 46 54 52 58 62 66Egypt 93 108 132 165 189 228 281 281Euroland 10219 10585 12280 13825 12475 12382 13847 14675France 2151 2222 2565 2888 2633 2604 2911 3080Germany 2807 2874 3312 3706 3338 3363 3790 4064Hong Kong 178 190 207 215 209 225 247 272Hungary 111 110 138 162 131 133 152 163India 808 917 1177 1200 1383 1731 2041 2261Indonesia 285 365 431 508 541 708 845 982Israel 134 146 168 202 195 218 251 285Italy 1793 1836 2102 2345 2118 2087 2328 2489Japan 4602 4332 4342 4746 5013 5363 5484 5637Kazakhstan 57 80 105 133 116 146 174 202Malaysia 131 156 186 222 193 238 283 330Mexico 849 952 1036 1094 880 1035 1211 1325Netherlands 644 668 778 890 797 793 892 958New Zealand 111 115 142 106 135 151 165 172Peru 79 92 107 127 127 154 170 184Philippines 99 118 147 164 161 200 238 261Poland 306 333 421 551 433 475 583 660Russia 766 978 1294 1696 1236 1492 1898 2231Singapore 117 137 167 193 183 223 267 304South Africa 247 262 286 278 288 365 423 488South Korea 792 890 1049 933 834 1014 1181 1340Spain 1140 1216 1432 1628 1469 1433 1591 1693Sweden 375 389 462 504 402 459 577 628Switzerland 375 386 433 508 495 531 623 658Taiwan 346 366 385 403 377 430 497 548Thailand 177 207 246 275 264 319 365 408Turkey 483 529 646 731 614 736 796 950Ukraine 86 108 142 183 117 140 159 180UK 2291 2382 2806 2786 2127 2267 2678 2916USA 12638 13399 14062 14369 14119 14660 15260 15969Venezuela 144 183 227 311 326 238 298 367Vietnam 53 61 71 90 93 103 118 132Advanced Economies 35021 36400 40104 42951 39812 41769 45542 48201Emerging Markets 8211 9721 11996 14541 14311 17230 20660 23531World 43232 46121 52100 57493 54123 58998 66201 71732



Nominal GDP

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Nominal GDP quarterly path is estimated by our economists as the Chinese government only releases year-to-date data and other data anomalies.

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina 10.9 25.9 25.1 17.1 22.6 26.2 25.4 28.9 28.8 25.3 25.9 21.2 16.1 15.9 17.2 19.0Australia 0.8 7.4 6.6 5.8 2.9 8.6 9.3 8.9 7.4 5.8 6.5 6.7 7.4 6.0 5.1 5.0Brazil 5.1 15.4 13.0 10.6 15.8 16.9 15.7 13.5 12.5 13.4 12.9 13.3 11.1 10.9 10.6 9.9Canada -4.6 6.3 6.4 5.8 5.5 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.0 6.5 6.9 6.0 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.0China 10.4 18.1 20.6 19.3 17.2 16.9 17.0 20.9 22.3 23.9 19.6 18.3 18.8 19.6 19.6 19.4Chile 2.6 14.4 9.2 8.5 13.2 16.0 15.6 12.9 11.2 9.2 8.4 8.2 8.7 8.7 8.4 8.4Colombia 5.7 7.8 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.0 6.1 9.6 10.1 8.6 10.1 9.6 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.0Czech Republic -1.6 1.0 4.3 4.5 -0.6 1.2 2.0 1.3 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.4Denmark -4.9 5.2 4.2 4.3 2.4 6.7 6.4 5.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 5.6 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.7Ecuador -4.0 10.8 7.5 7.1 – – – – – – – – – – – –Euroland -3.2 2.6 3.6 2.8 1.4 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.8France -2.1 2.2 3.6 2.6 1.2 2.2 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.5Germany -3.3 4.1 4.5 4.0 3.3 4.7 4.3 4.1 5.2 4.0 4.0 4.6 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2Greece -1.1 -2.0 -2.3 1.2 -0.5 0.0 – – – – – – – – – –Hong Kong -2.8 7.5 9.7 10.4 8.8 4.3 8.4 7.3 8.5 9.6 11.8 9.8 9.9 11.2 10.5 9.9Hungary -2.6 4.1 7.1 4.8 – – – – – – – – – – – –India 14.6 25.2 17.9 10.7 29.5 25.9 25.8 20.0 21.8 21.6 15.0 13.9 10.1 9.7 11.4 11.8Indonesia 6.7 30.7 19.4 16.2 42.9 31.2 26.2 21.9 20.7 19.3 18.3 19.3 18.6 15.4 16.0 14.9Italy -3.1 1.9 3.4 3.7 0.5 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.5Japan -6.6 1.8 -1.2 3.2 2.7 1.1 2.8 0.5 -2.9 -1.9 -1.1 0.7 3.3 4.1 3.1 2.3Kazakhstan -13.1 25.9 19.8 16.7 – – – – – – – – – – – –Malaysia -13.0 22.9 19.3 16.6 25.8 24.2 22.3 19.9 22.8 17.7 17.8 19.0 17.6 16.7 16.2 15.7Mexico -2.4 10.0 8.6 8.2 12.0 14.0 11.1 10.0 9.6 8.8 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.1 7.5Netherlands -3.9 3.0 4.2 4.2 0.5 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2Peru 3.0 13.7 9.3 8.5 12.8 14.9 14.0 13.0 13.2 6.2 8.5 9.5 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.3Philippines -3.2 23.8 19.0 9.7 21.4 19.0 20.9 16.4 13.8 22.6 19.4 21.8 13.8 8.5 6.7 6.3Poland -18.7 9.0 8.7 7.5 24.1 9.0 -0.6 3.4 7.7 25.6 23.8 19.1 19.6 16.0 16.3 13.3Russia -26.0 20.8 30.4 26.2 30.9 22.7 15.4 17.5 21.8 27.4 30.8 39.0 31.2 27.0 25.2 23.2Singapore -3.2 21.5 20.1 13.8 26.7 24.9 18.6 16.5 22.0 20.5 20.6 17.0 15.7 13.6 13.0 12.6South Africa 5.4 11.2 9.5 9.2 8.1 11.7 12.1 12.9 11.8 10.0 9.0 7.4 11.8 10.0 9.0 7.4South Korea -10.6 21.6 16.4 13.5 38.5 22.9 13.2 12.8 9.9 15.1 21.7 19.5 16.5 15.0 11.9 10.4Spain -3.1 0.8 2.9 3.3 -0.8 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.6Sweden -3.6 6.9 6.3 4.9 3.8 6.1 8.0 9.3 8.8 7.0 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.4Switzerland -1.6 2.1 2.7 3.9 1.8 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.5 1.6 1.2 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.6 4.6Taiwan -5.7 14.0 15.6 10.2 16.8 15.3 13.3 10.5 12.1 16.2 18.1 16.4 12.1 11.8 9.6 7.3Turkey 3.2 12.6 9.7 23.3 27.1 13.9 17.1 13.5 15.8 12.7 4.8 7.7 10.0 21.6 24.4 23.1Ukraine -36.3 19.7 13.7 13.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –UK -3.5 4.3 6.2 5.6 2.5 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.6 6.2 6.7 7.1 7.2 5.5 5.1 4.9USA -1.7 3.8 4.1 4.6 2.8 3.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.8Venezuela 4.8 -27.1 25.6 23.0 -30.2 -27.9 -26.8 -26.3 27.5 26.1 26.7 26.7 22.8 25.1 23.9 20.4Advanced Economies -3.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.5Emerging Markets 4.2 17.8 17.7 15.5 19.4 17.5 16.5 16.8 18.3 19.0 16.4 16.3 15.2 15.2 15.3 14.9World -0.4 10.2 10.3 9.6 10.9 10.1 9.7 9.5 10.2 11.0 10.0 10.1 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.2

2010 2011 2012Nominal GDP, % change, yoy



Consumer Expenditure


2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina 0.5 9.0 9.9 3.2 7.3 8.1 8.9 11.5 11.3 13.0 10.6 5.1 2.2 2.6 3.4 4.3Australia 1.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6Brazil 4.2 7.0 5.4 4.3 8.4 6.4 5.9 7.5 5.9 6.0 5.5 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.5Canada 0.4 3.3 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.4 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7Chile -2.3 15.7 6.9 4.9 13.6 17.1 19.1 13.0 13.2 5.2 5.3 4.6 5.8 4.3 5.2 4.3China 9.0 5.9 6.8 7.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –Colombia 0.9 6.7 6.6 5.4 4.0 4.5 9.4 9.0 8.0 7.4 5.3 5.8 5.3 6.1 4.8 5.4Czech Republic -0.1 0.1 0.3 2.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.7 1.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.8Denmark -4.5 2.3 0.5 2.2 2.8 1.9 1.8 2.6 -0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3Ecuador -0.7 7.7 8.7 4.1 3.4 8.2 9.1 10.1 10.2 6.4 10.3 8.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1Euroland -1.2 0.8 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8France 0.2 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6Germany -0.1 0.4 1.8 1.7 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8Greece -1.8 -4.3 -5.2 1.1 1.4 -4.8 -5.8 -8.2 -10.8 -5.2 -3.3 -1.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.6Hong Kong 0.6 5.8 4.9 4.4 7.4 4.1 5.3 8.1 7.6 6.0 4.5 2.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 3.5Hungary -6.9 -2.1 -0.4 1.0 -4.0 -3.8 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.2 -0.7 0.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8India 7.5 8.6 8.0 8.2 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.0 8.6 8.3 7.7 7.6 8.4 8.5 8.2 7.7Indonesia 4.9 4.6 5.3 6.0 3.9 5.0 5.2 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0Israel 1.7 5.0 5.5 4.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Italy -1.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3Japan -1.9 1.8 -1.1 0.9 3.0 1.3 2.5 0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -2.0 -0.7 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.1Malaysia 0.7 6.5 6.7 5.5 5.2 7.9 6.7 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0Mexico -7.2 5.0 3.8 4.9 4.0 6.8 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9Netherlands -2.6 0.4 0.5 1.9 -0.4 0.2 0.5 1.2 -0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0New Zealand -0.9 2.3 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1Norway 0.2 3.6 2.7 3.8 4.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.1 3.2 2.8 2.5 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1Peru 2.4 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.4 5.6 5.3 5.0 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.0Philippines 4.1 3.4 5.4 5.9 4.0 1.9 2.4 4.9 4.9 5.0 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.8Poland 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.2 2.1 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3Russia -4.7 3.0 6.8 6.8 -0.5 4.7 5.1 2.7 5.7 6.5 7.1 7.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.5Singapore 0.2 4.2 5.2 5.7 6.1 5.2 1.5 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.0South Africa -2.0 4.4 4.8 4.0 2.3 4.7 5.5 5.1 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1South Korea 0.0 4.1 3.2 3.8 6.6 3.5 3.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.8 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.9Spain -4.3 1.2 0.1 0.6 -0.3 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.7 -0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9Sweden -0.4 4.9 2.2 2.3 5.1 3.9 4.9 5.5 1.9 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4Switzerland 1.4 1.7 1.2 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2Taiwan 1.1 3.7 4.1 4.7 3.0 4.3 4.6 2.7 5.0 4.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.5Thailand -1.1 4.8 2.7 3.5 3.9 6.4 5.0 3.9 3.4 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0Turkey -2.3 6.6 10.6 3.0 7.5 3.3 6.5 9.0 12.1 11.8 10.5 8.3 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.1Ukraine -14.2 7.0 4.6 6.4 – – – – – – – – – – – –UK -3.2 0.7 -0.2 0.8 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1USA -1.2 1.7 2.3 2.6 0.8 1.7 1.8 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.9Venezuela -2.9 -1.9 4.6 6.7 – – – – – – – – – – – –Vietnam 3.7 9.4 3.8 4.6 – – – – – – – – – – – –Advanced Economies -1.1 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4World 0.9 3.5 3.6 4.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –

Consumer Expenditure, % change, yoy 2010 2011 2012



Fixed Investment


2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina -10.2 21.2 11.1 1.8 13.1 18.9 26.6 24.7 19.5 12.5 8.3 6.7 0.9 0.6 1.9 3.4Australia -3.2 5.4 6.3 8.8 6.5 7.7 6.4 1.6 2.6 5.0 8.2 10.1 10.3 10.8 8.3 6.5Brazil -10.3 21.9 8.2 7.4 28.4 28.1 21.2 12.3 8.8 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.5 8.5Canada -20.8 7.3 13.7 9.5 -4.3 6.4 11.5 16.6 17.0 15.2 11.9 11.1 10.4 9.7 9.2 8.6Chile -15.9 18.8 14.1 13.3 7.2 29.2 18.6 19.9 19.3 16.0 12.0 10.0 15.0 16.0 12.0 10.0China 23.3 11.8 10.4 10.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –Colombia -0.8 8.3 7.6 5.9 9.3 6.6 3.9 13.8 8.7 6.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 6.5 6.0Czech Republic -7.9 -3.1 1.1 4.0 -7.7 -4.5 0.0 -0.1 3.8 1.8 -0.3 -0.9 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.6Denmark -14.3 -3.2 -3.5 4.7 -16.1 1.8 -0.3 3.6 -1.6 -6.4 -3.7 -2.1 6.2 5.4 4.2 3.1Ecuador -4.3 10.2 8.5 5.0 2.7 9.5 12.8 16.2 10.0 10.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0Euroland -11.7 -1.0 3.3 2.6 -5.0 -0.6 0.5 1.3 4.2 2.3 3.0 3.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.8France -8.8 -1.4 2.9 2.7 -4.8 -1.9 0.2 1.3 3.7 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.3Germany -10.0 5.7 8.3 3.0 0.4 7.1 7.8 7.6 12.5 7.3 6.5 7.3 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0Hong Kong -3.9 8.1 3.6 5.2 8.2 15.8 -0.3 8.6 -1.1 3.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.9 5.3 5.7Hungary -7.8 -5.6 -2.0 1.0 -6.4 -6.0 -4.6 -5.5 -3.7 -2.8 -1.7 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1Indonesia 3.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.0 8.0 9.2 8.7 7.3 9.3 9.3 8.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 9.0Israel -5.8 12.6 14.5 6.8 – – – – – – – – – – – –Italy -12.0 2.3 1.4 3.6 -1.0 3.1 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.8 1.0 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5Japan -12.2 0.0 1.2 6.3 -3.8 -0.1 3.5 1.0 -0.8 -0.2 1.3 4.1 7.1 7.2 6.2 4.6Malaysia -5.6 9.8 7.9 10.0 5.8 12.9 10.1 10.0 6.5 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 10.0 10.0Mexico -11.9 2.4 4.8 4.8 -2.7 1.9 3.8 6.4 7.7 7.2 6.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8Netherlands -10.2 -4.4 8.0 2.1 -10.8 -3.7 -3.1 0.7 10.1 5.0 8.4 8.4 1.2 2.7 2.2 2.1New Zealand -11.9 3.3 6.0 14.5 -2.7 1.6 4.2 10.4 9.0 3.4 7.0 4.6 10.4 14.9 16.7 15.8Norway -6.9 -7.4 10.1 5.8 -17.1 -3.3 -3.7 -4.9 13.6 5.0 13.3 8.8 7.6 6.5 5.3 3.9Peru -9.2 23.2 9.3 10.4 12.7 29.5 27.5 23.2 12.3 5.0 10.2 9.6 11.2 10.5 10.3 9.7Philippines -0.4 19.5 8.9 5.3 19.0 27.1 16.0 16.1 12.0 8.0 10.0 6.0 4.7 4.3 5.5 6.5Poland -1.0 -0.9 7.4 7.7 -5.1 -0.8 0.4 1.7 6.8 6.7 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.6Russia -15.7 4.6 8.1 14.4 -4.4 6.3 5.0 11.5 -0.6 7.5 11.0 14.5 16.5 13.0 14.0 14.0Singapore -2.9 5.1 3.3 6.8 11.1 -1.7 5.8 5.7 -9.5 8.6 7.4 6.9 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.7South Korea -1.4 7.3 2.6 6.6 12.6 7.4 7.1 3.7 -1.3 1.9 2.9 5.9 13.8 7.1 5.4 2.4Spain -16.0 -7.6 -4.3 0.5 -10.5 -6.7 -6.7 -6.1 -5.8 -5.9 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0Sweden -15.3 5.9 7.7 6.6 -0.6 3.9 9.7 11.1 8.9 8.7 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6Switzerland -4.9 3.0 6.9 2.4 3.6 4.5 2.3 1.4 7.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 3.0 2.0 2.2 2.2Taiwan -11.0 23.4 5.2 6.2 28.6 32.0 24.6 12.3 9.6 5.0 3.0 4.0 7.7 7.0 5.8 4.8Thailand -9.2 9.4 7.8 6.5 12.1 11.3 7.9 6.4 9.3 5.8 6.5 9.2 7.1 6.3 6.1 6.4Turkey -19.1 29.9 22.1 3.8 16.8 28.4 30.0 42.1 33.6 26.4 25.3 8.4 4.5 3.3 3.3 4.1UK -15.3 3.6 3.7 9.6 -1.1 2.6 6.2 6.8 0.0 3.3 3.6 8.0 11.7 11.4 8.7 7.0Ukraine -46.2 4.9 14.3 25.9 -2.2 -5.7 3.6 -0.2 -6.0 18.7 19.9 18.7 36.5 27.0 23.2 22.3USA -18.3 3.9 4.4 7.1 -2.0 5.1 5.3 7.4 6.9 2.9 3.7 4.2 5.4 6.7 7.9 8.2Venezuela -8.3 -6.3 5.2 3.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Vietnam 4.3 10.4 4.1 4.6 – – – – – – – – – – – –Advanced Economies -13.7 2.7 4.0 5.9 -1.5 3.4 4.3 4.9 4.6 3.0 3.7 4.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.8

Fixed Investment, % change, yoy 2010 2011 2012



Domestic Demand


2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina -1.2 11.6 10.1 3.0 8.5 11.0 12.6 13.8 12.8 12.0 10.1 6.1 2.4 2.4 3.0 4.0Australia -0.1 3.6 4.1 4.8 3.3 4.1 4.3 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.3Brazil -0.8 10.3 5.6 4.6 11.8 12.6 10.1 6.8 6.8 4.9 5.3 5.3 4.7 4.1 4.5 5.0Canada -2.1 4.5 4.4 3.4 3.8 5.0 4.8 4.6 3.8 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.6 3.2 3.1 3.0Chile -5.9 16.4 8.6 7.0 12.0 19.9 19.0 14.6 14.6 7.9 6.8 6.0 8.1 7.5 6.9 5.8China 14.1 9.8 8.7 9.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Colombia 0.1 6.9 6.6 5.2 5.6 7.5 7.7 6.6 7.6 6.5 6.1 6.1 5.4 5.4 4.9 5.2Czech Republic -4.2 1.5 0.3 2.4 -1.6 0.9 4.3 2.4 0.4 1.3 -2.2 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.3Denmark -6.0 -0.4 1.7 2.4 -1.7 3.1 2.0 2.0 -0.1 -1.1 0.2 0.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0Ecuador -2.8 9.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 8.8 12.9 10.4 5.8 4.5 4.0 3.6 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5Euroland -3.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 -0.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8France -2.7 1.2 2.6 2.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.1 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1Germany -2.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 0.4 3.2 2.3 3.7 3.5 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1Hong Kong 0.7 7.0 3.2 4.3 16.8 10.7 -1.6 4.3 0.5 4.9 4.7 2.8 4.6 4.6 4.2 3.8Hungary -10.2 -1.2 1.2 2.0 -3.9 -0.9 0.4 -0.4 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.4 3.5 2.5 1.0 0.9India 10.6 8.4 6.6 8.1 11.5 9.8 7.6 5.5 7.5 6.7 6.2 6.2 8.2 8.4 8.1 7.5Indonesia 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.6 5.3 5.1 6.6 5.7 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.6Italy -4.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.2 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4Japan -4.7 2.2 0.1 2.5 1.7 1.4 3.7 1.9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.5 1.8Malaysia -2.4 12.4 6.9 7.0 16.9 17.1 9.8 7.2 10.3 5.1 6.0 6.7 7.5 7.3 5.6 7.6Mexico -8.0 5.1 3.7 4.7 3.9 7.5 4.5 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.7Netherlands -3.1 0.9 1.9 1.7 -1.1 3.0 0.7 1.0 2.4 -0.2 2.7 2.8 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.8New Zealand -3.4 2.6 2.8 4.8 1.1 2.6 2.8 3.9 3.5 2.1 3.2 2.5 3.7 5.0 5.4 5.3Peru -2.8 12.8 7.2 6.5 8.5 14.2 15.2 13.2 10.7 4.2 6.9 7.4 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.2Philippines 2.8 8.3 6.8 5.7 10.2 8.3 6.2 8.4 8.2 6.1 7.4 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.6Poland -0.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 2.4 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.5 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.8Russia -6.2 3.2 6.3 7.4 -0.5 4.4 4.3 4.7 3.3 5.6 7.4 9.1 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.7Singapore -6.8 7.2 6.2 6.6 8.2 8.6 -1.3 14.1 0.5 5.1 11.1 8.4 6.4 5.9 6.5 7.5South Africa -2.0 4.5 5.1 4.0 0.4 4.8 6.7 6.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1South Korea -2.8 6.0 4.2 4.8 9.4 7.8 4.8 2.7 1.6 3.5 4.5 7.0 7.0 4.8 3.8 3.8Spain -5.9 -1.1 -0.8 0.5 -2.9 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -1.9 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9Sweden -4.6 5.6 4.3 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.3 7.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6Switzerland 0.7 0.9 0.3 2.5 -2.8 1.0 2.2 3.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 3.6 2.1 2.1 2.2Taiwan -3.6 9.9 3.3 4.7 14.8 10.3 10.2 5.1 3.0 4.1 2.7 3.6 5.2 5.0 4.4 4.2Thailand -6.9 10.3 3.4 4.1 19.3 8.4 11.6 3.4 0.6 6.4 3.2 3.3 4.5 2.6 4.6 4.6Turkey -5.1 10.6 12.2 2.6 8.6 8.4 10.2 14.8 16.1 14.7 13.2 5.9 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.5UK -5.5 2.7 0.4 1.9 1.0 2.9 3.9 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8USA -3.6 3.2 1.9 2.9 1.9 3.8 4.1 3.2 2.7 1.7 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.2Venezuela -7.7 -0.5 5.7 6.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Vietnam 4.1 10.0 3.9 4.6 – – – – – – – – – – – –Advanced Economies -3.6 2.8 1.9 2.7 2.0 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7Emerging Markets 5.2 8.0 6.8 6.8 – – – – – – – – – – – –World 0.0 5.0 4.0 4.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –

Domestic Demand, % change, yoy 2010 2011 2012



Exports of Goods and Services


2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina -6.4 14.6 -0.6 5.1 4.2 18.2 27.8 7.4 7.1 -7.3 -6.0 6.5 8.5 2.7 3.8 5.9Australia 2.8 5.3 1.5 9.4 3.4 9.0 4.2 4.5 -3.4 -1.6 6.1 4.6 15.7 9.3 6.1 7.2Brazil -10.2 11.5 10.4 11.5 14.7 7.2 11.3 13.5 4.3 13.5 12.0 11.0 11.0 12.0 12.0 11.0Canada -13.8 6.4 5.2 6.2 2.5 9.7 6.5 7.0 6.4 4.0 5.6 5.0 5.1 6.1 6.6 6.8Chile -6.4 1.9 5.6 4.3 -5.6 0.6 8.0 5.1 9.5 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5China -17.1 30.3 18.0 18.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –Colombia -8.2 2.0 7.6 5.2 -4.9 2.4 2.1 9.1 11.5 4.5 9.5 5.0 5.5 5.0 6.0 4.5Denmark -9.7 3.8 9.1 4.3 -1.8 3.5 6.2 7.7 10.7 9.9 7.8 8.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3Ecuador -5.9 2.3 2.5 2.5 53.9 33.1 7.3 17.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0Euroland -13.1 11.1 6.9 4.7 7.4 13.2 12.2 11.5 9.7 6.6 6.0 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7France -12.2 9.4 5.6 4.6 5.9 9.8 10.8 10.9 7.8 5.6 4.3 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.9Germany -14.3 14.4 7.7 4.1 8.6 17.9 16.3 14.7 12.8 6.7 6.3 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2Hong Kong -10.1 16.8 11.9 11.9 20.7 19.8 19.7 8.4 15.1 9.2 10.6 13.3 11.0 11.6 12.1 12.6India -6.8 17.9 17.0 14.0 10.0 10.7 24.8 25.0 17.4 17.2 16.8 16.7 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.6Indonesia -9.7 14.9 17.3 10.1 20.0 14.6 9.6 16.1 12.3 21.8 20.2 15.0 16.0 9.3 8.2 8.0Italy -18.4 8.9 6.4 5.2 6.2 9.7 9.8 9.7 7.3 6.3 5.3 6.7 6.2 5.7 4.9 4.1Japan -23.9 23.9 -0.5 9.3 34.7 30.2 21.2 13.2 6.5 -4.0 -3.8 -0.1 2.7 11.7 12.1 10.7Malaysia -10.5 9.9 7.2 9.1 19.1 14.0 6.8 1.7 3.7 7.0 9.0 9.0 8.5 9.0 10.0 9.0Mexico -21.2 27.8 13.6 7.1 9.9 26.4 16.6 21.2 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0Netherlands -8.1 10.8 5.7 3.2 9.3 12.3 10.9 10.7 6.9 6.3 5.5 4.1 4.1 3.0 2.8 2.9New Zealand 1.9 2.8 3.0 2.3 6.2 2.2 0.2 2.8 2.2 2.6 4.3 2.7 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.7Norway -3.8 -1.7 -1.4 1.9 1.7 -0.5 -3.6 -4.5 -6.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6Peru -3.2 2.5 6.2 7.0 0.2 -0.1 7.0 2.7 3.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0Philippines -13.4 21.0 7.2 6.6 18.8 24.0 23.1 16.8 3.3 5.2 7.9 13.0 10.0 6.4 5.3 5.3Poland -16.0 20.5 12.1 11.1 18.5 25.1 20.6 17.8 12.6 10.0 12.8 13.2 10.3 10.8 11.1 12.2Singapore -8.1 19.2 6.8 8.5 21.7 24.4 19.8 12.1 8.4 5.0 6.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0South Korea -1.2 14.5 12.1 10.0 16.7 14.5 11.6 15.7 16.8 11.0 10.7 10.4 10.0 10.2 10.0 9.8Spain -11.6 10.3 12.3 9.4 9.4 11.9 9.4 10.5 11.2 12.1 14.0 12.1 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7Sweden -13.2 10.6 8.9 6.7 3.0 12.1 13.2 14.0 13.6 8.9 7.0 6.5 5.9 6.7 7.0 7.3Switzerland -8.7 10.3 4.4 1.4 11.0 14.6 9.2 6.6 7.2 3.8 3.4 3.3 -0.5 1.6 2.2 2.3Taiwan -8.7 25.7 8.0 8.6 39.1 32.9 20.5 15.1 10.9 6.5 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.6 9.3 9.5Thailand -12.5 14.7 10.2 9.0 16.6 22.3 11.7 9.5 15.9 5.0 9.0 11.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 10.0UK -10.1 5.2 9.2 7.2 1.6 6.5 7.2 5.6 9.3 8.3 9.8 9.5 8.5 7.7 6.4 6.1USA -9.5 11.7 8.4 8.4 11.4 14.1 12.7 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.2 8.2 8.5Venezuela -13.7 -12.9 7.8 9.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Vietnam -11.0 20.0 8.2 10.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Advanced Economies -11.6 12.6 6.9 7.3 12.6 15.4 12.9 10.1 8.5 6.0 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.5 7.5 7.5World -11.2 14.8 9.2 9.3 – – – – – – – – – – – –

Exports of Goods and Services, % change, yoy 2010 2011 2012



Imports of Goods and Services


2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina -19.0 34.0 13.7 2.9 30.1 35.6 37.4 32.7 20.4 17.2 12.7 6.6 5.3 4.9 1.9 0.1Australia -9.0 13.3 11.3 12.1 13.6 17.6 13.4 9.0 9.0 9.7 14.3 12.3 13.6 12.5 10.9 11.5Brazil -11.5 36.2 16.9 14.5 39.6 38.9 40.9 27.2 24.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 13.0 14.8 16.0Canada -13.4 13.1 6.8 5.4 11.5 17.5 13.5 10.2 9.4 5.8 5.2 6.9 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.0Chile -14.6 29.5 10.4 8.2 19.7 35.3 36.8 26.0 20.6 9.0 8.0 6.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 6.0China -14.5 31.3 17.8 19.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Colombia -9.1 6.3 11.6 6.5 4.2 16.7 23.1 16.2 21.4 12.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0Denmark -12.5 3.9 6.0 4.9 -2.5 6.7 4.6 7.0 8.2 4.5 5.9 5.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9Ecuador -11.6 16.3 4.2 5.0 19.9 47.2 47.7 36.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0Euroland -11.8 9.3 6.2 4.6 4.2 11.5 10.8 10.9 8.7 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6France -10.6 8.3 7.3 5.1 2.1 8.5 13.4 9.2 10.7 8.1 4.5 6.2 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.2Germany -9.4 12.8 6.2 5.0 4.5 17.5 13.5 16.2 10.5 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.7Hong Kong -9.0 17.3 11.3 11.8 26.1 22.2 16.1 7.5 11.8 9.5 11.1 12.7 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.5Indonesia -15.0 17.3 21.7 9.8 22.6 18.4 12.2 16.9 15.6 18.0 20.7 31.0 10.4 11.2 8.9 9.1India -2.1 9.2 17.6 14.2 15.5 11.6 0.4 10.3 18.1 18.0 17.3 17.0 14.6 14.2 13.7 14.2Italy -13.8 10.3 6.9 4.7 6.4 9.2 13.0 12.5 8.6 9.4 5.9 4.0 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.6Japan -15.3 9.8 7.7 8.2 3.8 14.5 11.5 9.8 8.7 7.1 6.3 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.0 7.4Malaysia -12.2 15.1 8.8 10.6 27.8 22.6 11.2 3.5 8.4 7.0 9.5 10.0 10.0 11.0 10.5 11.0Mexico -22.6 24.7 12.8 7.5 7.0 29.7 13.4 23.4 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6Netherlands -8.0 10.6 5.7 2.8 7.7 14.0 10.6 10.0 7.2 4.7 6.0 5.0 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.5New Zealand -14.9 9.9 7.2 4.3 6.0 8.9 11.3 13.3 7.6 11.2 8.0 2.4 5.8 3.7 3.9 3.9Norway -11.6 8.9 14.5 4.5 7.7 12.9 8.4 6.8 16.9 11.0 14.7 15.6 5.4 5.0 4.1 3.6Peru -18.6 23.8 10.2 8.5 12.3 24.0 35.3 23.4 13.5 10.0 10.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 8.0Philippines -1.9 22.5 10.1 7.0 24.2 22.1 22.1 21.9 8.8 8.4 12.0 11.0 10.0 6.0 6.0 6.3Poland -24.5 22.6 11.9 11.5 17.6 26.9 22.8 23.0 13.7 11.7 10.9 11.5 10.2 12.1 11.9 11.6Singapore -11.0 16.6 8.0 9.7 16.8 20.3 16.7 12.8 5.6 7.0 9.0 10.2 10.0 8.5 10.0 10.1South Korea -8.0 16.9 12.1 11.7 21.5 18.0 14.7 14.2 10.8 10.5 11.8 15.1 16.5 12.0 10.0 9.0Spain -17.8 5.4 5.0 5.0 2.0 9.6 5.0 5.3 5.2 1.6 7.0 6.5 3.9 4.7 5.5 6.0Sweden -13.6 12.3 9.0 6.1 5.5 17.5 13.5 12.9 12.6 8.4 7.8 7.5 5.7 6.5 6.1 5.9Switzerland -5.4 8.0 1.3 2.0 2.4 12.1 8.9 8.7 4.8 0.4 0.5 -0.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2Taiwan -12.8 28.2 6.9 9.3 49.3 34.0 22.3 14.3 6.6 7.1 6.8 7.0 10.2 7.5 9.4 10.3Thailand -21.5 21.5 11.3 9.2 33.3 24.6 21.3 10.5 16.2 10.5 12.0 7.0 7.0 6.4 11.5 11.5UK -12.0 8.8 3.2 4.6 5.3 10.0 10.7 9.2 4.2 3.5 3.4 1.8 5.1 4.9 4.3 4.1USA -13.8 12.6 4.7 6.7 6.2 17.4 16.1 10.9 9.4 3.3 0.6 6.0 6.0 6.4 7.1 7.4Venezuela -19.6 -2.9 11.0 11.3 – – – – – – – – – – – –Vietnam -10.9 18.9 7.6 8.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Advanced Economies -12.9 11.8 6.1 6.6 7.5 15.4 13.6 10.9 8.8 5.2 4.2 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6World -11.7 15.2 9.3 9.1 – – – – – – – – – – – –

Imports of Goods and Services, % change, yoy 2010 2011 2012



Current Account

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008.

Current Acc, US$bn 2009 2010 2011 2012 Current Acc, % GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012Argentina 11.1 3.1 -0.9 -0.4 Argentina 3.6 0.8 -0.2 -0.1Australia -42.0 -31.7 -42.1 -76.0 Australia -4.2 -2.6 -2.8 -4.9Brazil -25.3 -47.5 -59.0 -75.0 Brazil -1.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9Canada -38.3 -49.1 -39.4 -31.3 Canada -3.0 -3.1 -2.3 -1.7Chile 2.6 3.8 1.1 -0.4 Chile 1.6 1.9 0.5 -0.1China 297.1 306.2 337.3 363.6 China 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.3Colombia -5.2 -9.0 -8.0 -8.6 Colombia -2.2 -3.1 -2.4 -2.5Czech Republic -6.1 -7.4 -6.3 -7.2 Czech Republic -3.2 -3.8 -2.8 -3.0Denmark 11.1 16.0 17.2 20.3 Denmark 3.6 5.1 5.2 5.9Dominican Republic -2.3 -4.4 -4.9 -3.7 Dominican Republic -5.0 -8.6 -9.0 -6.2Ecuador -0.2 -1.9 -2.3 -2.5 Ecuador -0.4 -3.3 -3.6 -3.8Egypt -4.4 -1.9 0.3 – Egypt -2.3 -2.1 -3.6 -3.0Euroland -42.9 -48.6 -63.3 -10.0 Euroland -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1France -39.2 -45.7 -56.0 -37.3 France -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 -1.2Germany 187.8 188.1 163.8 167.4 Germany 5.6 5.6 4.3 4.1Greece -26.2 -23.5 -17.9 -15.4 Greece -11.2 -10.2 -8.0 -6.8Hong Kong 18.0 14.8 18.3 23.6 Hong Kong 8.6 6.6 7.4 8.7Hungary 0.5 2.7 2.9 1.0 Hungary 0.4 2.1 1.9 0.6India -38.7 -44.6 -68.2 -86.5 India -2.8 -2.6 -3.4 -3.8Indonesia 10.6 5.7 2.5 6.1 Indonesia 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.6Israel 7.1 6.4 2.6 1.0 Israel 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.5Italy -42.2 -72.2 -93.6 -98.8 Italy -2.0 -3.5 -4.0 -4.0Japan 141.4 192.2 111.1 104.4 Japan 2.8 3.6 2.0 1.9Kazakhstan -4.4 4.3 8.7 4.3 Kazakhstan -3.8 3.0 5.0 2.1Malaysia 31.9 27.3 31.5 35.6 Malaysia 16.5 11.5 11.1 10.8Mexico -6.4 -5.6 -5.5 -7.6 Mexico -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6Netherlands 38.8 56.8 82.9 86.3 Netherlands 4.9 7.2 9.3 9.0New Zealand -3.2 -5.6 -5.4 -7.1 New Zealand -2.8 -4.0 -3.5 -4.3Norway 48.2 53.6 58.0 65.9 Norway 13.4 12.9 11.2 11.4Peru 0.2 -2.3 -4.3 -6.0 Peru 0.2 -1.5 -2.5 -3.3Philippines 9.4 8.5 8.2 9.1 Philippines 5.8 4.2 3.5 3.5Poland -9.5 -16.1 -23.0 -28.3 Poland -2.2 -3.4 -3.9 -4.3Russia 49.5 70.6 83.7 68.2 Russia 4.0 4.7 4.3 2.8Singapore 35.1 49.5 57.8 69.2 Singapore 19.1 22.2 21.6 22.8South Africa -11.2 -10.1 -16.7 -21.8 South Africa -3.9 -2.8 -4.0 -4.5South Korea 32.8 28.2 15.0 6.8 South Korea 3.9 2.8 1.3 0.5Spain -75.9 -65.3 -48.4 -47.3 Spain -5.2 -4.6 -3.0 -2.8Sweden 28.3 29.1 36.7 40.9 Sweden 7.0 6.3 6.4 6.5Switzerland 41.3 64.6 100.5 103.6 Switzerland 11.5 14.6 16.1 15.8Taiwan 42.9 39.9 40.4 44.3 Taiwan 11.4 9.3 8.1 8.1Thailand 21.9 14.8 18.5 18.2 Thailand 8.3 4.6 5.1 4.5Turkey -13.5 -46.7 -67.7 -66.4 Turkey -2.1 -6.5 -8.5 -7.0UK -36.4 -72.1 -39.3 -18.1 UK -1.7 -3.2 -1.5 -0.6Ukraine -1.7 -2.9 -6.6 -11.7 Ukraine -1.5 -2.1 -4.2 -6.5USA -376.6 -470.9 -470.2 -543.2 USA -2.7 -3.2 -3.1 -3.4Venezuela 8.6 14.4 18.5 11.0 Venezuela 2.6 6.0 6.2 3.0Vietnam -6.1 -3.9 -5.6 -0.7 Vietnam -6.6 -3.8 -4.9 -0.6

Advanced Economies -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5Emerging Markets 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.0World 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



Industrial Production

China: This is based on a much broader survey than the monthly indicator of industrial production, and therefore the annual growth rates based on GDP accounting and those based on monthly survey data often differ significantly. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Australia -1.6 4.5 1.4 3.4 6.2 7.2 5.1 0.0 -1.3 0.4 1.8 4.6 5.2 3.2 2.8 2.4Canada -10.7 5.8 4.9 5.4 2.2 7.8 8.0 5.4 5.0 3.9 4.7 5.9 5.0 5.6 5.6 5.5China 11.4 15.3 14.6 14.8 19.6 16.0 13.5 13.3 14.4 13.9 15.3 14.8 13.9 15.3 15.0 14.7Denmark -17.0 2.2 4.7 4.2 -7.4 2.3 7.8 7.0 6.5 3.4 2.0 7.1 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.4Euroland -14.7 7.4 4.8 3.0 5.1 9.3 7.3 8.1 6.6 4.8 4.4 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.3France -12.4 5.0 2.5 1.5 4.4 7.2 4.3 4.0 3.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.2Germany -16.4 10.8 7.6 3.0 6.9 12.7 10.7 12.6 12.3 7.7 6.5 4.2 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2India 5.3 8.2 7.3 7.3 9.6 6.8 8.6 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.1Indonesia 1.3 4.4 5.3 5.3 4.3 4.3 3.7 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3Israel -6.0 8.0 3.4 3.4 – – – – – – – – – – – –Japan -21.8 16.6 -2.7 6.1 28.0 21.2 14.0 6.0 -2.5 -6.0 -2.5 0.0 0.7 6.0 9.0 8.5Malaysia -7.7 7.5 4.9 6.1 11.1 11.1 4.3 4.1 2.6 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.7Mexico -7.2 4.7 4.1 – 4.1 6.9 4.8 3.1 – – – – – – – –Netherlands -7.4 7.1 1.0 4.1 7.5 10.6 4.7 5.7 0.7 -0.2 2.9 0.8 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.8Norway -6.4 2.8 4.9 6.5 0.1 4.2 4.0 2.9 2.8 5.0 4.9 6.9 7.6 6.8 6.5 5.4Philippines -11.9 23.2 7.4 11.0 10.0 27.4 20.8 16.2 12.7 5.0 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.1 8.7Poland -3.7 11.1 7.3 6.7 10.2 12.5 11.9 9.8 9.0 7.1 6.4 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.9Russia -9.3 6.3 6.1 4.4 9.8 9.7 6.2 6.3 5.3 5.7 7.1 6.1 5.0 4.1 4.7 4.4Singapore -4.2 29.7 8.8 9.0 37.2 45.3 13.7 25.7 13.1 5.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0South Africa -12.7 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.2 8.9 4.5 2.1 4.4 1.2 4.6 4.7 1.8 4.5 4.2 4.6South Korea -0.2 14.8 9.1 10.4 25.8 19.5 10.5 6.0 3.4 7.6 9.8 15.4 15.2 10.4 8.4 8.2Spain -15.5 0.8 0.7 3.2 -0.1 2.6 0.4 0.4 1.6 -0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 3.4 4.0 4.3Sweden -19.3 8.7 10.6 6.6 2.2 10.1 10.9 11.4 15.8 12.6 8.6 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.9 7.6Switzerland -7.9 6.2 8.2 6.4 5.2 8.0 5.4 6.1 7.6 7.5 9.3 8.5 6.0 5.7 6.6 7.0Taiwan -8.1 26.9 13.2 18.5 48.8 29.7 18.8 17.7 14.8 10.0 14.0 14.0 16.0 17.6 19.2 20.8Thailand -9.7 17.5 9.7 15.1 34.1 23.2 12.1 4.9 1.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1Turkey -10.2 13.1 9.7 3.5 17.2 13.8 10.2 11.8 14.3 12.1 10.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.7 4.7UK -10.0 2.1 1.7 2.9 0.3 1.7 3.1 3.3 1.9 1.1 1.9 1.9 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.9Ukraine -20.5 10.7 6.0 – – – – – – – – – – – – –USA -11.2 5.3 3.7 2.8 1.5 6.5 6.9 6.3 5.5 3.9 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.2Vietnam 6.8 14.0 13.3 7.3 13.4 13.0 14.2 15.3 14.2 10.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 8.0 10.0 12.0Advanced Economies -12.3 8.1 3.8 4.2 7.9 10.1 8.1 6.8 4.9 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.7World -6.3 8.6 5.7 5.9 9.4 10.0 8.1 7.2 6.2 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.9 6.2 6.2

2010 2011 2012Industrial Production, % change, yoy



Unemployment Rate

The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% Unemployment Rate

Euroland

USA

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% Unemployment Rate

JapanAdvanced Economies

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina 8.7 7.8 6.9 7.1 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.5 7.4 7.1 7.0 7.0Australia 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6Brazil 6.8 5.3 5.3 5.6 7.6 7.0 6.2 5.3 6.5 6.1 6.1 5.3 7.0 6.7 6.6 5.6Canada 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.2 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1Chile 9.6 9.0 8.5 8.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 8.3 7.3 6.8 6.5 5.8 7.0 6.5 6.2 5.5Colombia 12.0 11.8 10.8 10.0 13.0 12.0 11.5 10.7 12.4 10.6 10.3 10.1 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0Czech Republic 8.2 8.9 8.8 8.6 9.3 8.9 8.7 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5Denmark 4.8 6.0 5.7 5.1 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9Ecuador 8.1 9.0 – – – – – – – – – – – – – –Euroland 9.5 10.1 9.8 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.2France 9.1 9.3 8.5 7.4 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.9Germany 8.2 7.7 7.0 7.0 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4Greece 9.5 12.6 14.5 15.0 11.0 12.2 – – – – – – – – – –Hong Kong 5.2 4.4 3.2 3.2 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2Hungary 10.0 11.2 11.4 11.1 11.8 11.1 10.9 10.8 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.9Indonesia 7.9 7.1 7.8 7.6 – – – – – – – – – – – –Italy 7.8 8.4 8.1 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9Japan 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6Malaysia 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5Netherlands 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6New Zealand 7.0 6.7 6.5 5.7 6.1 6.9 6.4 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7Norway 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4Philippines 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.0 8.0 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.0 7.0 7.0Poland 8.2 9.6 9.1 8.5 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4Singapore 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7South Korea 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.6Spain 18.0 20.1 20.6 20.5 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.4Sweden 8.3 8.4 7.5 6.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.6Switzerland 3.7 3.9 3.0 2.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9Taiwan 5.8 4.7 3.5 3.0 5.6 5.2 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0Thailand 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7UK 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4USA 9.3 9.6 9.1 8.9 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8Vietnam 4.6 4.4 5.2 6.2 – – – – – – – – – – – –Advanced Economies 8.2 8.5 8.1 7.8 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6

2010 2011 2012Unemployment Rate, %



Prices CPI Inflation

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina 6.3 10.5 9.7 12.6 6.6 7.7 9.1 10.2 10.7 10.6 10.2 9.8 9.7 10.3 11.3 12.3Australia 1.8 2.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.7Brazil 4.9 5.2 6.6 6.5 5.2 4.8 4.7 5.9 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.5 6.0 5.7 6.1 5.9Canada 0.3 1.8 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.0Chile 1.5 1.4 3.3 3.5 0.0 -0.4 0.3 1.4 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5China -0.7 3.3 4.7 3.0 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.7 5.0 5.7 5.0 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.2Colombia 2.4 2.7 4.1 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0Czech Republic 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2Denmark 1.1 2.2 2.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8Dominican Republic 4.3 9.2 11.8 9.1 5.9 6.3 8.0 9.2 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.5 10.9 10.1 9.1Egypt 9.9 10.1 11.5 12.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Ecuador 5.2 3.6 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.4 4.2 5.2 5.4 4.8 4.2 4.1 4.1Euroland 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.1France 0.1 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0Germany 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.3Greece 1.4 4.6 2.9 1.0 3.1 5.1 – – – – – – – – – –Hong Kong 0.6 2.4 5.3 5.0 1.9 2.6 2.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 7.3 5.0 5.2 5.4 4.9 4.6Hungary 4.2 4.9 3.9 4.3 6.0 5.4 3.8 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.7 4.6India 3.8 9.6 8.6 5.1 10.5 9.3 8.9 9.6 9.4 9.6 8.9 6.6 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0Indonesia 4.8 5.1 6.3 6.4 3.7 4.4 6.2 6.3 6.8 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.6Israel 3.3 2.7 3.8 2.7 – – – – – – – – – – – –Italy 0.8 1.6 2.8 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.8 1.9Japan -1.4 -0.7 0.7 0.3 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3Kazakhstan 7.3 7.1 9.5 7.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –Malaysia 0.6 1.7 3.7 3.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.2 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.9Mexico 5.3 4.2 3.4 3.6 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6Netherlands 1.0 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.9New Zealand 2.1 2.3 4.6 3.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 4.0 4.5 5.3 5.1 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0Nigeria 12.5 13.7 15.0 15.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Norway 2.2 2.4 1.5 2.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.5Panama 1.9 4.9 7.5 7.0 2.7 2.8 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0Peru 2.9 1.5 2.9 2.5 0.7 1.1 2.2 2.1 2.4 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.5Philippines 3.2 3.8 5.0 5.0 4.3 4.2 3.8 2.9 4.1 5.7 5.8 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.9 6.2Poland 3.5 2.6 4.5 3.3 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.8 4.8 4.4 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0Russia 11.7 6.8 8.7 6.4 7.2 5.9 6.1 8.1 9.5 9.5 8.4 7.2 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.2Singapore 0.6 2.8 4.2 3.3 0.9 3.1 3.4 4.0 5.2 4.8 3.7 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1South Africa 7.1 4.3 4.9 6.0 5.7 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.5 5.1 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.2 6.1South Korea 2.8 3.0 4.2 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8Spain -0.2 2.0 3.0 1.6 1.3 2.3 2.0 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.8Sweden -0.3 1.3 3.0 3.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.2Switzerland -0.5 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.3Taiwan -0.9 1.0 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.6 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.2 1.7Thailand -0.9 3.3 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.0 4.1 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.6Turkey 6.3 8.6 6.5 7.7 9.3 9.2 8.4 7.4 4.3 5.9 7.7 7.9 8.6 8.1 7.3 6.7UK 2.2 3.3 4.2 2.2 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.0 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.9Ukraine 16.0 9.4 9.5 8.7 11.2 8.3 8.5 9.5 7.7 10.5 10.3 9.6 10.1 8.6 8.2 8.0USA -0.3 1.6 3.2 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 2.2 3.3 3.6 3.6 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.9Venezuela 28.6 29.1 26.6 21.3 27.4 31.9 29.8 27.3 29.1 24.6 26.0 26.8 24.2 22.8 19.7 19.0Vietnam 6.7 9.2 16.0 8.3 8.5 9.0 8.4 10.8 12.8 19.4 17.2 14.5 10.0 8.0 8.0 7.0Advanced Economies 0.2 1.6 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0Emerging Markets 3.8 5.8 6.6 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.2 6.0 6.2 6.6 6.3 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.5World 1.7 3.4 4.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1

2010 2011 2012Consumer Prices, % change, yoy

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. For India Consumer Price Table we use Wholesale Prices. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.



GDP Deflators

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% chg GDP Deflators

Euroland

UK

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% chg GDP Deflators

World

USA

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Argentina 10.0 15.4 16.2 13.5 14.8 12.8 15.5 18.0 17.2 17.0 16.0 15.0 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5Brazil 5.7 7.3 8.2 6.4 6.0 7.1 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.0 7.3 6.5 6.0 5.7Canada -1.9 2.9 3.4 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.9 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6China -0.6 5.9 3.8 5.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Chile 2.9 9.4 4.3 3.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Colombia 4.2 3.4 3.6 3.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Denmark 0.4 3.4 2.5 2.2 3.6 4.3 3.1 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0Ecuador -4.4 7.0 3.5 3.5 – – – – – – – – – – – –Euroland 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.9France 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.5Germany 1.4 0.6 1.1 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2Greece 1.3 2.4 1.5 1.0 2.4 3.2 – – – – – – – – – –Hong Kong -0.6 0.4 4.7 5.0 0.9 -1.9 1.7 1.0 1.5 5.0 7.3 5.0 5.2 5.4 4.9 4.6India 7.2 9.8 8.6 5.4 11.3 9.4 9.8 8.8 9.1 9.9 8.9 6.8 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.2Italy 2.3 0.6 2.1 2.3 -0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3Japan -0.4 -2.1 -0.4 0.2 -2.8 -2.0 -2.1 -1.6 -1.9 -0.3 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.3Malaysia -6.9 5.1 4.5 3.7 5.9 5.4 5.1 4.3 6.1 3.4 4.2 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.9Mexico 4.0 4.4 3.4 3.6 7.1 5.9 5.5 6.4 4.9 5.9 6.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3Netherlands -0.4 1.3 1.8 2.0 -0.1 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Peru 2.2 4.5 2.7 2.2 6.3 4.4 4.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2Philippines 2.8 4.3 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.7 3.9 3.8 4.2 5.7 5.8 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.9 6.2South Korea 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 4.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4Spain 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5Switzerland 0.3 0.1 -0.2 1.8 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.3Taiwan 1.0 -1.8 0.0 1.0 -3.3 -1.5 -0.2 -1.9 -2.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Thailand 1.9 3.7 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.0 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.6UK 1.4 2.9 4.2 2.9 2.8 3.6 2.2 3.1 3.0 4.9 4.9 4.0 4.2 2.5 2.6 2.6USA 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5Venezuela 8.3 46.7 22.0 18.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –Vietnam 6.0 11.9 16.4 7.6 10.1 10.2 11.4 14.7 15.4 19.4 17.2 14.5 10.0 8.0 8.0 7.0Advanced Economies 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2World 1.5 3.3 3.4 2.9 – – – – – – – – – – – –

2010 2011 2012GDP Deflator, % change, yoy




Commodity Prices

Selected Commodity Prices

Units Current 2011Price 1-Wk 1-Mth 3-Mth 12-Mth 3-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth

Energy WTI Crude Oil $/bbl. 95.9 5.0 -1.5 2.9 -11.3 25.3 111.0 115.0 126.5

Industrial Metals Aluminum $/lb. 1.1 1.1 0.0 -1.3 -8.0 26.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 Copper $/lb. 4.4 1.0 0.5 7.7 3.8 48.9 4.3 4.4 5.0

Nickel $/lb. 10.8 -3.8 0.7 9.9 -5.9 26.6 10.9 10.9 10.4

Precious Metals Gold $/oz. 1602.4 12.7 2.6 4.0 7.2 35.6 1565.0 1635.0 1730.0

Agricultural CBT Wheat ¢/bu. 689.5 -13.2 4.0 4.6 -12.3 18.4 590.0 600.0 620.0

Soybeans ¢/bu. 1385.5 -0.6 1.4 3.7 3.2 37.5 1300.0 1375.0 1375.0 Cotton ¢/lb. 98.0 -32.4 -8.1 -24.2 -42.8 24.4 125.0 125.0 100.0

Corn ¢/bu. 696.3 10.7 -0.1 -0.6 -7.0 82.5 590.0 575.0 570.0

Sugar ¢/lb. 28.9 -9.9 -5.1 5.4 19.2 64.3 25.0 20.0 20.0

Coffee ¢/lb. 248.2 3.2 -3.3 1.9 -14.8 53.2 235.0 200.0 175.0Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research

Past PerformanceSpot Price Changes (in %) Forecasts

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

(US$/bbl) Crude Oil Prices

Market Forward Curve

Goldman Sachs

Forecast

Source: GS

200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950

1000

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

S&P GSCITM Commodity Price IndexGSCI Spot Index

Source: GS

24034044054064074084094010401140124013401440154016401740

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000


Copper and Gold Prices

Copper (left scale)

Gold (right scale)

US$/mt $/ounce

Source: GS

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300


Coffee and Wheat Pricescents/bushel US$/pound

Wheat (Left Scale)

Coffee (right scale)

Source: GS



Country Reports – G3 United States

Present Situation: Growth is likely to average less than 2% in the first half of 2011, but some easing in energy prices and a rebound in vehicle production should lead to a modest rebound in the second half of the year. Key risks include a renewed rise in oil prices, a faster pace of fiscal tightening and heightened tensions regarding the European sovereign debt outlook. Central Issue: Will a self-sustaining expansion in private-sector demand finally take hold, pushing growth above trend and beginning to whittle down the substantial spare capacity in the US economy? We think it can, barring interference from one of the aforementioned risk factors. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect short-term rates to stay very low as the Fed remains on hold through 2012; slightly higher core inflation and an improvement in the growth outlook should push longer-term yields somewhat higher in the remainder of the year and 2012.

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Consumers Expenditure % chg yoy -1.2 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.9Domestic Demand % chg yoy -3.6 3.2 1.9 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.2Real GDP % chg yoy -2.6 2.9 2.3 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2Nominal GDP, US$bn 14119 14660 15260 15969 15018 15190 15314 15517 15683 15874 16059 16258Consumer Prices % chg yoy -0.3 1.6 3.2 2.2 2.2 3.3 3.6 3.6 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.9

Consumer Spending -1.2 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.2 0.5 2.0 3.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0Domestic Demand -3.6 3.2 1.9 2.9 1.7 1.2 2.1 3.4 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6Real GDP -2.6 2.9 2.3 3.0 1.9 1.5 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5

Employment Cost Index 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8Unemployment Rate 9.3 9.6 9.1 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8

Trade Balance, US$ bn -506 -646 -743 -805 -182 -183 -187 -191 -195 -197 -204 -208Current Account, US$ bn -377 -471 -470 -543 -119 -114 -117 -120 -125 -135 -141 -142Current Account - % of GDP -2.7 -3.2 -3.1 -3.4 -3.2 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.2 -3.4 -3.5 -3.5

Broad Money - yoy 7.9 2.3 5.1 4.6 4.5 6.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 3.7 5.2 5.0Fed Funds - % 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.23 Month LIBOR % 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.810 Year Govt. Bond Yield % 3.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.3

Federal Budget Balance ($bn, FY) -1413 -1294 -1350 -1025 – – – – – – – –

USA 2011 2012

Debt Sector

Activity and Prices

% chg, previous period, annualised

Labour Market

External Sector

Financial Sector

Andrew Tilton

Note: For Nominal GDP quarterly paths are shown at an annualised rate as is common practice in US.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% yoy US: GDP and Industrial Production


GDP



Japan

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Consumers Expenditure -1.9 1.8 -1.1 0.9 -1.0 -1.4 -2.0 -0.7 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.1Domestic Demand -4.7 2.2 0.1 2.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.5 1.8Real GDP -6.3 4.0 -0.8 3.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.5 0.3 2.1 3.8 3.3 2.6Nominal GDP -6.6 1.8 -1.2 3.2 -2.9 -1.9 -1.1 0.7 3.3 4.1 3.1 2.3Nominal GDP, Yen bn 470937 479215 473023 507365 469437 468709 474936 479009 484945 488058 489657 489983

Consumers Expenditure -1.9 1.8 -1.1 0.9 -2.2 -2.4 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0Domestic Demand -4.7 2.2 0.1 2.5 -2.8 -0.2 4.2 3.7 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.1Real GDP -6.3 4.0 -0.8 3.0 -3.5 -3.7 4.2 4.5 3.8 2.6 2.4 1.5Nominal GDP -6.6 1.8 -1.2 3.2 -5.1 -0.8 5.4 3.7 4.9 2.4 1.4 0.6

Consumer Prices -1.4 -0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3GDP Deflator -0.4 -2.1 -0.4 0.2 -1.9 -0.3 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Trade Balance (Y bn) 4038 7979 849 1022 921 -479 163 223 616 -67 229 223Current Account (Y bn) 13287 17171 9583 9398 3505 1387 2627 2551 2919 1832 2653 2590Current Account - % of GDP 2.8 3.6 2.0 1.9 3.0 1.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 1.5 2.2 2.1

M2, yoy 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0Overnight Call Rate (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Discount Rate (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.33 Month Interest Rate (%) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.410 Year Govt. Bond Yield (%) 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9

Government Bond Issuance, Y trn 53.4 44.0 47.0 47.0 – – – – – – – –Gen. Govt Balance, Yen trn -46 -45 -49 -50 – – – – – – – –Gen. Govt Balance (% of GDP) -9.8 -9.5 -10.2 -10.1 – – – – – – – –

US$/Yen 93.5 87.8 81.5 84.8 82.3 81.6 80.1 82.0 82.7 84.7 86.0 86.0

Financial Sector

Exchange Rate Forecasts

Public Sector

% chg, previous period annualised

Output and Prices

Activity and Prices % chg yoy

Japan 2011 2012

External Sector

Note: For Nominal GDP quarterly paths are shown at an annualised rate as is common practice in Japan.

Yuriko Tanaka and Chiwoong Lee

Present Situation: The March 11 earthquake and tsunami severely disrupted the supply chain and damaged consumer sentiment. Q1 GDP declined -3.5% (qoq annualised), and we expect a similar decline in Q2. That said, disruptions have been deep but temporary, and we expect activity levels to recover to close to pre-earthquake levels in June. After relatively slow momentum in the summer, to conserve electricity usage, we expect manufacturing and exports to reaccelerate in Q4. Central Issue: A potential slowdown in the global economy is the main concern. Once production facilities return to normal, Japan's manufacturing activities should once again become a function of global demand. The supplementary reconstruction budget is also likely to be delayed until September. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The JGB market remains nervous given the need for further fiscal expansion to finance the earthquake reconstruction, but private-sector markets should have no problem absorbing additional bond issuance.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% yoy Japan: GDP and Industrial Production


GDP



Euroland

Present Situation: Recovery momentum has slowed over the past couple of months, but at this stage we would interpret this as a normalisation after very strong growth at the beginning of the year rather than a genuine slowdown. However, the divergence between core countries and the periphery remains, with Germany in particular growing strongly while peripheral countries are stagnating at best. Central Issue: While Euro-zone governments have decided in principle to support Greece with a second funding package, the pending issue of private-sector involvement has reignited financial market tensions. These tensions have also now spread to Italy and Spain. We remain of the view that governments and the ECB are determined to prevent any systemic event. Finding a common response, however, will not necessarily be easy given the political constraints. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Developments in relative inflation rates and sovereign bond spreads will likely continue to reflect the core-periphery divergence within EMU. We expect the ECB to raise rates by a further 50bp before year-end.

Dirk Schumacher

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% yoy Euroland: GDP and Industrial Production


GDP

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Consumers Expenditure -1.2 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8Domestic Demand -3.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8Real GDP -4.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8Nominal GDP -3.2 2.6 3.6 2.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.8Nominal GDP, EUR bn 8949.9 9181.6 9514.6 9783.4 2346.6 2374.7 2390.9 2402.4 2420.1 2438.1 2455.9 2469.4Core CPI 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.0Consumer Prices 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.1

Consumers Expenditure – – – – 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0Exports of Goods and Services – – – – 7.6 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.9Imports of Goods and Services – – – – 7.6 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.1Domestic Demand – – – – 3.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8Real GDP – – – – 3.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.1

Trade Balance EUR bn 13.7 -8.6 -16.0 20.2 -8.5 -6.9 -2.6 2.1 3.9 5.5 5.6 5.3Current Account EUR bn -30.8 -36.0 -43.5 -6.7 -14.8 -14.5 -9.7 -4.5 -2.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3Current Account - % of GDP -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

M3 Growth (%) -0.1 1.6 4.2 6.2 2.0 2.3 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.23 Month Interest Rate % 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8

Gross Public Debt - % of GDP 79.5 85.4 87.6 86.9 – – – – – – – –Gen. Govt Balance - EUR bn -566.5 -550.6 -415.6 -347.3 – – – – – – – –Budget Balance % of GDP -6.3 -6.0 -4.4 -3.6 – – – – – – – –

Public Sector


Financial Sector

% chg, previous period annualised

External Sector

Euroland 2011 2012



Country Reports – Europe Czech Republic

Present Situation: The economy continued to grow thanks to sustained external demand and despite subdued domestic demand; growth may slow later in 2011, but should still reach about 2.5%. Domestic consumption will improve only gradually over the coming quarters as fiscal consolidation continues and consumer sentiment remains low. Inflation fell below the 2.0% target again, after rising on higher food and energy prices. Central Issue: The government has faced a series of corruption scandals; coalition talks are still taking place but the risk of early elections seems to have been averted so far. Parliament has started the approval process for the pension reform, but in a more diluted form than the original proposal. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The Koruna remains stable despite a widening negative interest rate differential. With inflation below the target again, and with no visible domestic-demand pressures, we see the CNB remaining on hold until at least late Q3, and then following with gradual tightening, increasing the policy rate to 1.75% by 2012H2.

Present Situation: The recovery in Denmark is progressing, with GDP growth registering 1.7% in 2010 and recent IP figures showing strength. However, the last two quarters have been weak (-0.2%qoq and -0.1%qoq). House price corrections and low productivity growth remain a drag on growth. Strong economic prospects in Germany and the rest of Scandinavia are likely to benefit Danish exports. Central Issue: We expect GDP to grow slightly above consensus at 1.7% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2012. The Danish peg to the Euro remains credible and the Central Bank seems well-equipped to maintain the peg. Fiscal balances remain robust and recent reforms to curb ageing-related expenses are encouraging. That said, the extent of control over municipality spending targets remains to be seen.

Denmark

Czech Republic 2009 2010 2011 2012

Private Consumption -0.1 0.1 0.3 2.5Fixed Investment -7.9 -3.1 1.1 4.0Domestic Demand -4.2 1.5 0.3 2.4Real GDP -4.0 2.2 2.5 2.7Nominal GDP USD bn 192.3 193.9 226.8 244.7

Consumer Prices 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.4Consumer Prices (eop) - yoy 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.2

Population - m 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4Unemployment Rate 8.2 8.9 8.8 8.6

Import Growth EUR - yoy -22.2 26.2 16.5 9.8Export Growth EUR - yoy -22.3 23.9 16.1 9.4Trade Balance USD bn 4.3 2.9 3.0 2.7Current Account, USD bn -6.1 -7.4 -6.3 -7.2Current Account - % of GDP -3.2 -3.8 -2.8 -3.0

Pribor (3 Month) % 1.6 1.2 – –

Nominal Fiscal Bal - % of GDP -5.8 -4.7 -4.1 -3.3

EUR/CZ Koruna, eop 26.1 25.2 23.9 23.6

Financial Sector

Public Sector


GDP Components, % chg, yoy

Output and Prices, % chg, yoy

Labour Market

External Sector

Magdalena Polan

Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen

Denmark 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure -4.5 2.3 0.5 2.2Government Consumption 3.1 0.7 -0.4 0.6Fixed Investment -14.3 -3.2 -3.5 4.7Domestic Demand -6.0 -0.4 1.7 2.4Real GDP -5.2 1.7 1.7 2.1Nominal GDP -4.9 5.2 4.2 4.3Nominal GDP, EUR bn 222 234 244 254

Industrial Production -17.0 2.2 4.7 4.2Consumer Prices (Harmonised) 1.1 2.2 2.9 2.0

Employment - yoy -2.7 -2.2 -0.6 1.0Unemployment Rate (Nat'l Def%) 4.8 6.0 5.7 5.1

Current Account, Dk bn 59 89 95 112Current Account - % of GDP 3.6 5.1 5.2 5.9

3 Month Interest Rate 0.9 0.9 2.1 3.0

Gen. Govt Balance - DK bn -45 -84 -76 -60Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP -2.7 -4.8 -4.2 -3.2

Public Sector



Labour Market

External Sector

Financial Sector



France

Germany

Present Situation: The recovery in the French economy continues, although less briskly than in Germany. Investment spending has picked up as well and consumption growth remains robust. Export growth, however, is still lucklustre and this is unlikely to change as the external environment moderates. Central Issue: With the presidential elections coming up in May 2012, the public debate is now geared towards the forthcoming campaign. Current polls suggest that the governing majority does not start from a strong position. Recent regional elections also sent a warning signal regarding the potential (re-)emergence of the extreme right as a significant force in the debate. These developments will need to be watched closely. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: France remains a strong economy in the Euro-zone sovereign space, with a sound macroeconomic environment and resilient domestic demand.

France 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 0.2 1.4 1.6 2.1Government Consumption 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.3Fixed Investment -8.8 -1.4 2.9 2.7Domestic Demand -2.7 1.2 2.6 2.0Real GDP -2.6 1.4 2.1 1.7Nominal GDP -2.1 2.2 3.6 2.6Nominal GDP, EUR bn 2633.0 2603.9 2911.3 3079.8

Consumer Prices (Harmonised) 0.1 1.7 2.3 2.0GDP Deflator 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.9

Employment - yoy -1.2 0.2 1.0 1.6Unemployment Rate (ILO,%) 9.1 9.3 8.5 7.4

Trade Balance, EUR bn -48.1 -60.4 -87.9 -70.2Current Account, EUR bn -39.2 -45.7 -56.0 -37.3Current Account - % of GDP -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 -1.2

3 Month Interest Rate, % 0.7 0.9 1.9 2.8

Gross Public Debt - % of GDP 78.1 84.1 88.5 93.0Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP -7.5 -7.7 -6.3 -6.0

Public Sector


Financial Sector


Labour Market

External Sector

Germany 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure -0.1 0.4 1.8 1.7Government Consumption 2.9 1.9 2.0 1.6Fixed Investment -10.0 5.7 8.3 3.0Domestic Demand -2.1 2.4 2.5 2.0Real GDP -4.7 3.5 3.3 1.8Nominal GDP -3.3 4.1 4.5 4.0Nominal GDP, USD bn 3338 3363 3790 4064


Employment - yoy 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1Unemployment Rate % 8.2 7.7 7.0 7.0

Trade Balance, USD bn 164 175 208 247Current Account, USD bn 188 188 164 167Current Account - % of GDP 5.6 5.6 4.3 4.1

3 Month Interest Rate, % 0.7 0.9 1.9 2.8


Public Sector


Financial Sector


Labour Market

External Sector

Present Situation: The initially export-led recovery has now become more broad-based, with both private consumption and investment making positive contributions. The economy is now on a self-sustaining growth path, as evidenced by the continuing improvement in the labour market, with unemployment falling to its lowest level since unification. Central Issue: The external environment has been weakening and we expect export growth to be less buoyant going forward. Domestic demand growth, however, is now sufficiently strong to provide an offset for this. Only a signifcant weakening of global growth would pose a real threat to the German recovery at this point. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: German industry remains well-placed to benefit from a rebound in global industrial activity, in particular in the emerging world.

Dirk Schumacher

Dirk Schumacher



Greece

Hungary Present Situation: Growth continues to accelerate thanks to strong exports; domestic demand remains subdued due to deleveraging and the heavy burden of FX debt service. The recovery should continue in 2012 as consumption and investments ultimately pick up but fiscal consolidation may dent growth. Inflation remains driven by changes in food, fuel and energy prices. Central Issue: The government is implementing an ambitious reform program aimed at reducing the structural deficit and increasing labour participation. The process has just started and the first savings may materialise late this year but the program's approval has marked a substantial turn towards a more conservative approach to fiscal policy. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Policy rates should stay on hold in 2011. The MPC may contemplate policy easing if inflation continues to fall and growth softens; however, financial stability considerations and the risk of HUF weakness preclude cuts for the time being.

Hungary 2009 2010 2011 2012

Private Consumption -6.9 -2.1 -0.4 1.0Fixed Investment -7.8 -5.6 -2.0 1.0Domestic Demand -10.2 -1.2 1.2 2.0Real GDP -6.7 1.2 2.5 2.6Nominal GDP, USD bn 130.7 133.3 151.7 163.1

Consumer Prices - eop 5.6 4.7 3.8 4.6Consumer Prices 4.2 4.9 3.9 4.3

Population - m 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0Unemployment Rate 10.0 11.2 11.4 11.1

Trade Balance, USD bn 4.7 6.3 7.8 6.4Current Account, USD bn 0.5 2.7 2.9 1.0Current Account - % of GDP 0.4 2.1 1.9 0.6

3 Month Interest Rate - eop 6.4 5.7 6.2 6.3

Primary Fiscal Bal - % of GDP 0.1 -0.1 6.5 1.0Total Gross Public Debt - % of GDP 78.4 79.6 73.5 73.1Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn -5.8 -5.7 3.8 -4.9Nom Fiscal Bal - % of GDP -4.5 -4.3 2.5 -3.0

EUR/HUF, eop 273.1 277.6 271.0 271.0

Financial Sector

Public Sector




Labour Market

External Sector

Magdalena Polan

Present Situation: The economy grew in Q1 after six consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, this rebound will likely be short-lived as fiscal consolidation and private-sector deleveraging are weighing on the economy. Inflation remains elevated due to indirect tax hikes implemented over the past year, but should ease in the medium term on the back of growing spare capacity in the economy and tighter wage control. Central Issue: With the public sector set to be a drag on the economy in the coming years, the sustainability of any eventual recovery will hinge on the ability to restart growth in the private sector. Successful implementation of structural reforms will be critical, and will also support the price adjustments needed to boost export competitiveness. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The pace of structural reforms is likely to be a key driver of equity valuations, as well as the government's long-term debt-repayment prospects. We think a restructuring piloted by the official sector will eventually be needed in order to restore solvency.

Dirk Schumacher and Alexandre Kohlhas

Greece 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP -2.34 -4.35 -3.80 0.20Domestic Demand -4.24 -7.33 -5.90 -2.00Exports of Goods/Services -20.01 -0.74 6.50 7.80Imports of Goods/Services -18.62 -13.83 -4.20 -4.00Nominal GDP -1.11 -2.03 -2.30 1.20

Consumer Prices 1.35 4.64 2.90 1.00GDP Deflator 1.26 2.43 1.50 1.00

Unemployment Rate (%) 9.47 12.58 14.50 15.00

Trade Balance (Level) EUR bn -18.10 -15.09 -8.97 -5.90Trade Balance (% of GDP) -7.72 -6.57 -4.00 -2.60Current Account (% of GDP) -11.16 -10.23 -8.00 -6.80Current Account (Level) EUR bn -26.15 -23.48 -17.94 -15.43

Gen. Govt Balance (Level) EUR bn -36.15 -21.94 -16.82 -13.84Gen. Govt Bal (% of GDP) -15.43 -9.56 -7.50 -6.10Gen. Govt Debt (% of GDP) 127.21 139.40 155.13 159.73

GDP Components % chg, yoy

Public Sector


Labour Market

External Sector



Present Situation: GDP rebounded by 7%yoy in 2010, owing partly to a rise in industrial and agricultural output in late 2009. Although banks' balance-sheet problems still weigh on the recovery in non-exporting sectors, especially in investment, thanks to high commodity prices and fiscal support, we expect growth of 6.5% in 2011and 2012. Central Issue: Despite inflation running above the NBK forecast of 6%-8% and a strong balance of payments surplus, the NBK resisted currency appreciation in 2010H1, sterilising its FX interventions with short-term paper, and has kept interest rates low, for fear of fuelling speculative capital inflows. We think this policy is sustainable in the medium term, unless inflation rises to double-digits or substantial credit growth (which we think is some way off) pushes up interest rates. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect a modest 4% appreciation to KZT/$ 140 in 6 months to contain inflation risks and promote the dedollarisation of the economy; the risks are currently skewed towards a smaller, rather than larger move.

Kazakhstan 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP - yoy 1.2 7.0 6.5 6.5Nominal GDP (Level) USD bn 115.9 145.9 173.9 202.4

Consumer Prices - yoy 7.3 7.1 9.5 7.5

Population - m 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.7

Current Account (Level) USD bn -4.4 4.3 8.7 4.2Current Account - % of GDP -3.8 3.0 5.0 2.1

Nom State Budget Bal - % of GDP -2.9 -2.4 -2.9 -1.8

External Sector

Public Sector


Output and Prices

Labour Market

Italy

Kazakhstan

Anna Zadornova

Present Situation: While GDP growth in the first half of 2010 was robust, it has since been muted, registering only 0.1%qoq in Q1, after a similarly weak Q4. The PMI dipped below the threshold 50-mark in June. Central Issue: Italian sovereign bond spreads increased sharply in July. This has implied tighter financial conditions, posing significant downside risk to our growth forecasts. However, our leading indicator (EURO-LI) points to a pick-up in the second half of the year. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The Italian budget was fast-tracked through parliament at record speed in July. The austerity measures adopted look encouraging, with plans to secure a balanced budget by 2014. The Italian government's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to decline in the coming years, although the current high level of bond yields may inhibit the pace of improvement in the public finances.


Italy 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure -1.8 1.0 0.9 1.1Government Consumption 1.0 -0.6 0.1 -0.2Fixed Investment -12.0 2.3 1.4 3.6Domestic Demand -4.0 1.6 1.5 1.4Real GDP -5.2 1.2 1.3 1.4Nominal GDP -3.1 1.9 3.4 3.7Nominal GDP, USD bn 2118 2087 2328 2489


Employment - yoy -1.5 -0.7 0.3 0.5Unemployment Rate (ILO,%) 7.8 8.4 8.1 8.0

Trade Balance, USD bn -8 -40 -55 -59Current Account, USD bn -42 -72 -94 -99Current Account - % of GDP -2.0 -3.5 -4.0 -4.0



Public Sector


Labour Market

External Sector



Netherlands

Norway Present Situation: The Norwegian recovery is on a firm footing, and our current business cycle indicator points to robust GDP growth. Following the relatively mild contraction in output through 2009 and a firm recovery in 2010, capacity utilisation has tightened. Central Issue: We expect Norwegian momentum to continue and (mainland) GDP growth to register around +0.9%-1.0%qoq in Q2. We expect growth of 2.9% and 3.5% in 2011 and 2012, respectively. CPI-ATE inflation remains low, but underlying inflation is likely to trend higher towards 2% by 2012. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect Norges Bank to hike by a further 50bp in 2011, having already hiked 25bp in May, leaving the policy rate at 2.75% by end-2011. We expect the next hike to occur in August, although this decision is likely to be data-driven. Low underlying inflation is the main risk to this view.

Norway 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 0.2 3.6 2.7 3.8Government Consumption 4.7 2.2 0.6 1.4Total Fixed Investment -6.9 -7.4 10.1 5.8- Mainland Investment -11.1 -3.1 10.1 6.0Total GDP -1.6 0.3 1.6 2.7Mainland GDP -1.6 2.1 2.9 3.5

Industrial Production -6.4 2.8 4.9 6.5CPI-ATE 2.6 1.4 1.1 2.1

Unemployment Rate 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.4


3 Month Interest Rate 2.2 2.6 3.2 4.210 Year Govt. Bond Yield 4.1 3.7 4.3 4.8

Financial Sector, %


Overseas Sector


Labour Market, %


Present Situation: After growing strongly over the last couple of quarters, we expect some moderation in Dutch growth. High frequency data, however, suggest that the underlying momentum has remained robust so far. Central Issue: Unlike its peers in the EMU core, where the recession was mostly investment-led, the Netherlands suffered a deep contraction in private consumption. A recovery in consumer spending will be crucial in returning the economy to pre-crisis levels, but progress on this front is coming slowly: although the unemployment rate has begun to edge lower, real wage growth remains negative, and households (which carry one of the highest debt burdens in the Euro-zone) still have considerable deleveraging ahead of them. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: As one of the most open economies in the Euro-zone, the Netherlands is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing global recovery.

Netherlands 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure -2.6 0.4 0.5 1.9Government Consumption 4.8 1.0 0.9 1.2Fixed Investment -10.2 -4.4 8.0 2.1Domestic Demand -3.1 0.9 1.9 1.7Real GDP -3.5 1.6 2.3 2.1Nominal GDP -3.9 3.0 4.2 4.2Nominal GDP, USD bn 797 793 892 958

Consumer Prices (Harmonised) 1.0 0.9 2.3 1.7GDP Deflator -0.4 1.3 1.8 2.0

Employment - yoy -1.0 -0.6 0.6 1.5Unemployment Rate (ILO,%) 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.8

Trade Balance, USD bn 59 68 77 80Current Account, USD bn 39 57 83 86Current Account - % of GDP 4.9 7.2 9.3 9.0

3 Month Interest Rate % 0.7 0.9 1.9 2.8


Public Sector


Financial Sector


Labour Market

External Sector

Dirk Schumacher



Poland

Russia Present Situation: After a fall of -7.9% in 2009, the economy grew a subdued 4% in 2010. We expect it to accelerate to +5.3% in 2011, driven mainly by private-sector investment. The main downside risks are a sharp fall in oil prices or political uncertainty reducing investment more than we currently estimate. Central Issue: Headline inflation should remain close to 9.5% until mid-year, before falling to 7.3% in December on base effects in food inflation. However, the remaining output gap is small and, with growth accelerating, we think the CBR will need to tighten monetary conditions significantly in 2011H2 to avoid the economy overheating in 2012. We expect 100bp (50bp) of hikes to the deposit (repo) rate by year-end. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Strengthening domestic demand will likely reduce outflows of Russian capital. With a widening rate differential to developed economies, the Ruble should strengthen against both the basket and the USD. Our Strategists expect Russian equities to outperform, with a preference for domestic sectors.

Clemens Grafe

Russia 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP -7.9 4.0 5.3 5.6Domestic Demand -6.2 3.2 6.3 7.4Nominal GDP, US$bn 1235.5 1492.4 1897.7 2231.1


Current Account, US$bn 49.5 70.6 83.7 68.2Current Account - % of GDP 4.0 4.7 4.3 2.8

Primary Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) -5.4 -3.5 0.4 0.5Nominal Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) -5.9 -4.0 -0.1 0.0

US$/RUB, eop 30.2 30.5 26.0 24.8

Tot Gross Pub Sect Debt-% of GDP 7.0 7.7 8.4 9.7Debt Sector

GDP Components, % chg yoy

Output and Prices, % chg yoy

External Sector

Public Sector


Present Situation: The economy has grown strongly, supported by domestic demand, and with production benefiting from solid exports. Private investments are recovering, but plans to cut public investments are likely to dent growth in 2012. Inflation accelerated following supply-side shocks; it should start falling soon but stay above the target through 2012. Central Issue: Parliamentary elections are scheduled for early October. The current coalition leader, the Civic Platform, is likely to form a new government, preserving policy continuity. We do not expect the new government to pursue substantial fiscal reforms, even with no other elections until late 2014. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Despite the MPC's resolve to remain on hold for the moment, after a cumulative 100bp in hikes, we expect additional tigthening, with the policy rate reaching 5.0% by 2012Q1, from the current 4.50%.

Poland 2009 2010 2011 2012

Private Consumption 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.2Domestic Demand -0.6 4.3 4.5 4.5Real GDP 1.6 3.8 4.3 4.3Nominal GDP , PLN bn 432.7 475.3 583.4 659.7


Import Growth - yoy -24.5 22.6 11.9 11.5Export Growth - yoy -16.0 20.5 12.1 11.1Trade Balance, USD bn -4.3 -8.0 -9.6 -11.9Current Account, USD bn -9.5 -16.1 -23.0 -28.3Current Account - % of GDP -2.2 -3.4 -3.9 -4.3

3 Month Interest Rate - eop 4.2 3.9 5.2 5.3

Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn -9.8 -12.4 -10.6 -7.6Primary Fiscal Bal - % of GDP -4.5 -5.2 -2.9 -1.0Nom Fiscal Bal - % of GDP -7.3 -7.9 -5.5 -3.5Total Gross Pub Sect Debt - % of GDP 50.9 55.1 55.2 55.0

US$/PLN, eop 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.5




External Sector

Financial Sector

Public Sector

Magdalena Polan



Spain

Present Situation: GDP growth registered an impressive 5.7% in 2010. We expect growth to moderate this year and next, but remain well above trend at 4.6% and 3.1%, respectively. Our above-consensus view on growth in Sweden is driven by our expectation of robust growth in Sweden's trading partners, as well as Sweden's high leverage to rebounding global investment demand. Central Issue: Based on current survey evidence, we expect Q2 GDP growth to come in at around +0.8%-0.9%qoq, and we expect an upward revision to the Q1 first release. Headline inflation is likely to remain above the 2% inflation target. We expect underlying inflationary pressure to build as the output gap is now likely to have narrowed. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The Riksbank has raised rates at all meetings since July 2010, from 0.25% to 2.00% currently. We are more hawkish than current market pricing, and expect rates to reach 2.75% by end-2011, although the risks are skewed to the downside.

Sweden 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure -0.4 4.9 2.2 2.3Government Consumption 1.6 2.0 1.1 0.4Fixed Investment -15.3 5.9 7.7 6.6Domestic Demand -4.6 5.6 4.3 2.6Real GDP -5.3 5.4 4.6 3.1Final Domestic Demand -3.0 3.5 2.9 2.6Nominal GDP -3.6 6.9 6.3 4.9Nominal GDP, Swkr bn 3089.2 3301.1 3510.3 3683.5

Industrial Production -19.3 8.7 10.6 6.6Consumer Prices -0.3 1.3 3.0 3.1

Unemployment (Nt'l Def %) 8.3 8.4 7.5 6.8Population - m 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5

Trade Balance, Swkr bn 6.6 5.9 6.0 5.9Current Account, Swkr bn 217.6 209.2 223.5 239.9Current Account - % of GDP 7.0 6.3 6.4 6.5


Gross Public Debt - % of GDP 41.9 39.6 36.7 33.3Gen. Govt Balance - Swkr bn -36.0 -13.6 20.6 61.7Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP -1.2 -0.4 0.6 1.7

External Sector

Public Sector


Financial Sector


Labour Market

Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen and Adrian Paul

Sweden

Spain 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure -4.3 1.2 0.1 0.6Government Consumption 3.2 -0.7 0.5 0.2Fixed Investment -16.0 -7.6 -4.3 0.5Domestic Demand -5.9 -1.1 -0.8 0.5Real GDP -3.7 -0.1 1.1 1.9Nominal GDP -3.1 0.8 2.9 3.3Nominal GDP, USD bn 1469.0 1433.0 1590.5 1692.8

Consumer Prices (Harmonised) -0.2 2.0 3.0 1.6GDP Deflator 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.3

Employment - yoy -6.7 -2.3 -1.0 0.5

Trade Balance, USD bn -69.9 -70.5 -59.3 -61.3Current Account, USD bn -75.9 -65.3 -48.4 -47.3Current Account - % of GDP -5.2 -4.6 -3.0 -2.8



Financial Sector

Public Sector



Labour Market

External Sector

Present Situation: The economy is experiencing a subdued recovery. Weak growth is likely to continue for the remainder of the year. The fiscal consolidation continues on track but presents a drag on growth in the short term. Slack in the labour market generates a headwind for consumer spending. The main support for growth comes from exports and depends on continued progress in the global recovery. Central Issue: The outlook for Spain is shaped by adjustment of its twin deficits, implied by its fiscal and current account positions. The fiscal adjustment proceeds as planned. The C/A deficit has also narrowed. The difference between Spanish and Euro-zone inflation has narrowed. Gains in competitiveness are also supported by productivity gains and the reallocation of labour away from the construction sector, although it is unclear how much of that will persist. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Containing sovereign spreads depends on delivering the fiscal adjustment alongside nominal income growth. It also depends on policy at the level of the Euro-zone underpinning confidence.

Andrew Benito

*Calendar adjusted.



Switzerland

Present Situation: Turkey has rebounded strongly from recession. However, excessively loose domestic financial conditions have led to acute external imbalances. We see continued robust growth in 2011, followed by sequential moderation and base effects taking annual growth lower in 2012. Central Issue: Despite recent policy tightening, financial conditions remain loose, and the current account deficit is still significant. Some rebalancing will take place later in the year, but further policy tightening may still be necessary. We expect the CA deficit to narrow to 7.0% in 2012. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: At the next MPC meeting, we expect no hikes in the policy rate or reserve requirements. The CBRT is likely to adopt a more dovish stance, monitoring the ongoing global and domestic soft patch and risks from the Euro-zone fiscal crisis. We continue to forecast 100bp of cumulative rate hikes over 2011H2; however, with growth losing momentum, there now appears to be a greater downside risk to our forecast. We nonetheless remain cautious on the TRY.

Ahmet Akarli and Michael Hinds

Turkey 2009 2010 2011 2012

Private Consumption -2.3 6.6 10.6 3.0Fixed Investment -19.1 29.9 22.1 3.8Domestic Demand -5.1 10.6 12.2 2.6Real GDP -4.8 8.9 7.5 3.5Nominal GDP, US$ bn 614.4 735.7 796.2 949.7

Consumer Prices - end period 6.5 6.4 8.2 6.6Consumer Prices - yoy 6.3 8.6 6.5 7.7

Trade Balance, US$ bn -24.9 -56.4 -76.4 -80.2Current Account, US$ bn -13.5 -46.7 -67.7 -66.4Current Account - % of GDP -2.1 -6.5 -8.5 -7.0

Nom Fiscal Bal incl Privtn, % of GDP -5.5 -3.6 -1.0 -2.0

US$/TRY 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5

Public Sector


Output and Prices

External Sector


Turkey

Present Situation: After a strong recovery in the second half of 2010, GDP growth slowed to +0.3%qoq in Q1. Surveys of business sentiment remain consistent with robust underlying growth momentum, and there remains little sign - both on official and survey data - that the record strength of the CHF is thwarting the expansion of the Swiss economy so far. Central Issue: The trade-weighted Swiss Franc has appreciated by 20% in the past 12 months, while real GDP has already surpassed its pre-crisis peak. Faced with this dilemma, the SNB has remained resolutely dovish, and has kept the policy rate at record lows throughout. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Although the output gap has closed, CPI inflation remains muted. The recent escalation of uncertainty surrounding the Euro-zone debt crisis is likely to mean the SNB retrenches, wary of prompting further CHF appreciation. We expect the first rate hike in September, but the risks are now skewed predominantly towards a later move.

Switzerland 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 1.4 1.7 1.2 2.1Government Consumption 1.6 0.8 1.1 1.4Fixed Investment -4.9 3.0 6.9 2.4Domestic Demand 0.7 0.9 0.3 2.5Real GDP -1.9 2.8 2.1 2.1Nominal GDP -1.6 2.1 2.7 3.9Nominal GDP, Swfr bn 494.5 530.9 623.1 657.8

Consumer Prices -0.5 0.7 0.6 1.8GDP Deflator 0.3 0.1 -0.2 1.8

Unemployment Rate (Nat Def., %) 3.7 3.9 3.0 2.2



Gross Public Debt - % of GDP 20.7 20.6 20.5 19.9Gen. Govt Balance USD bn 1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.3Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2

Financial Sector

Public Sector



Labour Market

External Sector

Dirk Schumacher and Adrian Paul



UK 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure -3.2 0.7 -0.2 0.8Government Consumption 1.0 1.0 0.7 -0.2Fixed Investment -15.3 3.6 3.7 9.6Domestic Demand -5.5 2.7 0.4 1.9Real GDP -4.9 1.4 1.9 2.6Nominal GDP -3.5 4.3 6.2 5.6

RPI All Items -0.5 4.6 5.2 3.9

Industrial Production -10.0 2.1 1.7 2.9CPI 2.2 3.3 4.2 2.2GDP Deflator 1.4 2.9 4.2 2.9Core CPI -0.1 5.4 3.0 1.9

Employment - yoy -1.4 -1.2 0.6 0.8Unemployment Rate 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.6

Trade Balance USD bn -121.0 -146.5 -125.7 -109.5Current Account - % of GDP -1.7 -3.2 -1.5 -0.6

M4 - yoy 11.5 10.6 9.6 8.73 Month Interest Rate % 0.6 0.7 1.1 2.3


Public Sector

GDP Components % chg, yoy

Financial Sector

% change on previous quarter, not annualised

Output and Prices % chg, yoy

Labour Market

External Sector

Present Situation: Official data imply an anaemic recovery. After a 0.5%qoq contraction in 2010Q4 and an offsetting rebound in 2011Q1, GDP growth looks to have slowed in 2011Q2. An acceleration in government spending cuts will likely dampen growth further in the near term, and a slowdown in global demand remains a risk, but with accommodative monetary conditions, we expect a pick-up in 2011H2. Central Issue: With inflation at more than twice the MPC's target, and set to rise further, there remains a range of views on the committee regarding the appropriate balance between high spot inflation and softening output data. Two members continue to advocate rate hikes; the number moving towards more QE has increased. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We forecast a 25bp hike in Bank Rate in Q4, although the risks are now almost exclusively skewed towards a later move. Our above-consensus GDP forecast and below-consensus inflation forecast are more supportive of risky assets (e.g., equities) than it is hawkish on UK fixed income.

Kevin Daly and Adrian Paul

Ukraine

Present Situation: A rebound in private consumption drove 5.3%yoy growth in 2011Q1, but in H2 the recovery continues to face headwinds from the global slowdown, high energy prices and a weak financial system. We expect +4.3% growth in 2011, picking up to 5% in 2012. Inflation re-accelerated to 11.9% in June, and although food inflation is likely to fall after the harvest, we expect CPI to decline only to 10% by year-end. Central Issue: The 2010 $16bn IMF program stalled due to slow progress on reforms: the pension reform was passed, albeit with delays, but the government is trying to avoid increasing subsidised household energy tariffs given rising inflation. As October 2012 parliamentary elections approach, risks of fiscal slippage and weakening in the authorities' commitment to further reforms will likely grow. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The government is likely to tap external markets again in the autumn, conditions permitting, seeking $1-2bn to pre-fund for 2012 and to repay a $600mn Eurobond maturing in December.

Anna Zadornova

Ukraine 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP - yoy -14.8 4.2 4.3 5.0Nominal GDP, US$ bn 116.7 139.7 158.8 180.3Investment Growth -46.2 4.9 14.3 25.9

Industrial Production, cumulative -20.5 10.7 6.0 –Consumer Prices - eop 12.3 9.1 10.0 8.0Consumer Prices 16.0 9.4 9.5 8.7

Foreign Reserves incl Gold, eop 26.5 34.6 35.0 –Current Account, US$ bn -1.7 -2.9 -6.6 -11.7Current Account - % of GDP -1.5 -2.1 -4.2 -6.5

Nom State Fiscal Cons Bal (% of GDP) -8.7 -6.8 -3.5 -2.5

Public Sector



External Sector

United Kingdom



Country Reports – Africa and the Middle East Egypt

Israel

Present Situation: Israel has fared well in the global economic downturn, thanks to the timely response of the BoI and strong macro fundamentals. We expect above-trend growth of 4.5% in 2011 and growth to subsequently moderate to around trend, at 3.5%, in 2012. Central Issue: The BoI stepped up the pace and scale of rate hikes over 2011H1, as inflation and inflation expectations breached the upper 3% boundary of the target range. However, with inflation set to moderate and global growth slowing, we expect the BoI to adopt a more cautious 'wait and see' approach, hiking rates by only a moderate 50bp to end-2011. Over 2012 we expect policy normalisation to continue, with 125bp of cumulative hikes taking the policy rate to 5.0% by end-2012. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our $/ILS forecast now stands at 3.40, 3.35 and 3.20 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 3.50, 3.37 and 3.30 previously), reflecting the slower pace of tightening in the short run and a narrower current account surplus.

Israel 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP 0.8 4.7 4.5 3.5Nominal GDP 5.9 5.8 6.6 6.2

Consumer Prices 3.3 2.7 3.8 2.7Industrial Production -6.0 8.0 3.4 3.4

International Reserves 30.0 – – –Current Account, US$bn 7.1 6.4 2.6 1.0Current Account - % of GDP 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.5

Publc Sector Debt - % GDP 71.8 66.6 60.6 54.9Nominal Fiscal Bal - % of GDP) -4.4 -3.2 -3.0 -2.5Primary Fiscal Bal - % of GDP 1.0 1.7 1.5 2.0

Public Sector



External Sector



Present Situation: The recent political crisis has had a large, adverse impact on the Egyptian economy. Real GDP declined by 7.1%qoq (sa, non-annualised) in 2011Q1. This has led to a substantial deterioration in fiscal balances and broader balance of payments (BoP) pressures. However, several countries and international organisations have extended loans on favourable terms over recent months, helping to alleviate these pressures. Following revisions to the FY2011/12 budget (with US$4bn cut from planned expenditures), the authorities decided not to pursue an IMF stand-by arrangement. Central Issue: Uncertainty remains around the implementation of the current budget, both in terms of spending and revenue collection. The elections (postponed to November 2011) will be a critical development - particularly if they result in a stable, viable government. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Implementation risks for the budget remain an issue, given the structural nature of Egypt's previous fiscal imbalances and political economy constraints (in particular, the approach of raising public wages and maintaining food and energy subsidies).

Egypt 2009 2010 2011 2012

Nominal GDP, US$bn 188.8 228.5 280.6 280.6Real GDP 4.7 5.2 1.0 3.0

Consumer Prices 9.9 10.1 11.5 12.0

Population m 83.5 84.5 86.2 87.9



Labour Market



Nigeria

South Africa

Present Situation: The Nigerian economy grew strongly, at around 7.8%, in 2010, thanks to the impetus provided by rising commodity prices and robust domestic demand growth. In 2011 and 2012, the economy is likely to continue to perform well in response to rising (forecast) commodity prices and steady domestic demand growth. We expect growth of around 7.0% in 2011 and 7.5% in 2012. Central Issue: Recently launched energy sector reforms will be a key issue in 2011. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our Commodities team expects oil prices to rise further, towards $120/bbl by end-2011 and $140/bbl by end-2012.

Present Situation: The post-crisis recovery has been relatively slow and volatile, owing to an extended 2010Q2-Q3 soft patch. Our global and domestic leading indicators (and production data) are showing a significant loss of momentum over 2011Q2. With widespread industrial action over the past few weeks, growth may underperform our 3.5%yoy forecast before making a more tangible recovery in 2012. Central Issue: Headline has been creeping up only gradually as the output gap and labour market slack continue to provide a significant disinflationary buffer, keeping core inflationary pressures in check. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect the SARB to remain on hold at 5.5% for the majority of 2011 and foresee only 50bp of hikes in 2011Q4, followed by a cumulative 200bp of hikes in 2012, bringing the policy rate to 8.0% by end-2012. However, risks to this forecast are now probably tilted towards the downside, with a more a substantial loss in growth momentum inducing the SARB to remain on hold for longer.

South Africa 2009 2010 2011 2012

Private Consumption -2.0 4.4 4.8 4.0Domestic Demand -2.0 4.5 5.1 4.0Real GDP -1.7 2.9 3.5 4.1Nominal GDP, US$ bn 287.9 364.7 423.3 488.4

Consumer Prices - eop 6.3 3.5 6.4 6.1CPIX Inflation 7.1 4.3 4.9 6.0

Trade Balance, US$ bn 0.7 3.9 0.8 -3.3Current Account, US$ bn -11.2 -10.1 -16.7 -21.8Current Account - % of GDP -3.9 -2.8 -4.0 -4.5

Broad Money - M3 - yoy 5.7 4.3 – –3 Month Interest Rate - eop 7.1 5.5 6.2 6.2

Primary Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) -3.7 -2.1 -3.2 -2.6Nominal Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) -6.0 -4.3 -5.5 -4.9

US$/ZAR, eop 8.4 7.3 6.9 6.5

Total External Debt (% of GDP) 27.3 24.4 24.9 26.1Tot Gross Pub Sect Debt-% of GDP 31.3 32.1 37.1 41.0


Debt Sector



External Sector

Financial Sector

Public Sector



Nigeria 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.5Consumer Prices eop 12.5 13.7 15.0 15.0




Country Reports – Asia Australia

China

Present Situation: June IP growth rebounded strongly to 15.1%yoy, up from 13.3%yoy in May. On the inflation front, June CPI inflation rose to 6.4%yoy, up from 5.5%yoy in May. CPI inflation is likely to remain elevated in July because of the high base at the start of July, but high frequency data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that food prices have fallen rapidly on a yoy basis since the first week of July. Central Issue: Stronger-than-expected activity growth tends to alleviate policymakers' concerns about the growth slowdown. But we still expect policy to become less restrictive (although not as loose as in 2010H2) once CPI inflation starts on a downward trend. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our strategists are still constructive on Chinese equity markets and expect performance to year-end to be driven largely by earnings growth. However, the market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, as inflation data may continue to cause concern in the coming months and policy loosening may not materialise.

Present Situation: Natural disasters weighed on growth early in 2011, and tight financial conditions, fiscal drag and the elevated AUD have restrained the recovery since then. We expect growth of just +2.0% in 2011, before a mining-investment-led acceleration to +4.0% in 2012.

Central Issue: The outlook for policy remains dependent on the RBA's estimates on the extent of spare capacity within the economy and on when the economy will come up against supply constraints as private demand reaccelerates from 2011H2.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Given fragile sentiment, patchy growth, restrictive policy settings and an uncertain global environment, we see little case for a near-term rate hike. We believe that the local data flow will not justify a further tightening in policy (+25bp) until February 2012. For the AUD, there are significant short-term risks in both directions, but a deterioration in the trade accounts through 2012H2 should weigh on the AUD towards the end of 2012.

Australia 2009 2010 2011 2012

Private Consumption 1.0 2.8 3.2 3.5Government Consumption 1.6 3.4 3.1 1.9Fixed Investment -3.2 5.4 6.3 8.8Domestic Demand -0.1 3.6 4.1 4.8Real GDP 1.3 2.7 2.0 4.0Nominal GDP, US$bn 990.0 1234.4 1495.7 1562.5

Industrial Production -1.6 4.5 1.4 3.4Average Earnings 4.2 5.1 4.2 4.5Consumer Prices 1.8 2.8 3.6 3.2

Unemployment Rate, % 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.5Population - m 22.0 22.4 22.6 22.8

Trade Balance, US$bn -3.1 15.4 19.7 -12.0Current Account, US$bn -42.0 -31.7 -42.1 -76.0Current Account - % of GDP -4.2 -2.6 -2.8 -4.9

Cash Rate , % 3.8 4.8 4.8 5.03 Month Interest Rate, % 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.2

Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP -3.3 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3

A$/US$, eop 0.79 0.92 1.05 1.03Exchange Rate Forecasts

Financial Sector

Public Sector



Labour Market

External Sector

Economist: Tim Toohey [email protected] Copyright 2011 Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty Ltd

(ABN 21 006 797 897) All rights reserved.

Tim Toohey and David Colosimo

Yu Song

China 2009 2010 2011 2012

Exports of Goods and Services -17.1 30.3 18.0 18.5Imports of Goods and Services -14.5 31.3 17.8 19.0Domestic Demand 14.1 9.8 8.7 9.0Real GDP 9.2 10.3 9.4 9.2Nominal GDP, US$bn 4990.0 5891.7 7108.3 8483.4

Industrial Production 11.4 15.3 14.6 14.8Consumer Prices -0.7 3.3 4.7 3.0

Population - m 1334.7 1339.7 1347.6 1354.2

Gross International Reserves USD bn (level) 2399.2 2847.3 3230.1 3648.8Trade Balance, US$bn 198.2 184.5 182.1 –Trade Balance - % of GDP 4.0 3.1 2.6 –Current Account, US$bn 297.1 306.2 337.3 363.6Current Account - % of GDP 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.3

Broad Money 27.6 19.7 16.0 16.0

Fiscal Balance - % of GDP -2.2 -1.6 -1.3 -1.0

US$/CNY, eop 6.8 6.6 6.3 5.9

External Sector

Financial Sector, % chg, yoy

Public Sector




Labour Market



Hong Kong

India

Present Situation: 2011Q1 GDP expanded by 7.2%yoy, after growing 6.4%yoy in 2010Q4. On a sequential basis, GDP growth accelerated to 11.7%qoq annualised (ann), after growing 6.1%qoq ann in 2010Q4. Annual GDP growth in 2010 was revised up to 7.0%yoy from 6.8%yoy.

Central Issue: The government revised up its 2011 annual GDP growth forecast range to 5%-6%yoy, from 4%-5%yoy in February. We believe the accommodative financial conditions, continuous improvements in the labour market and steady growth in China should continue to support growth.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The potential for Hong Kong to develop into a regional and global financial hub, supported by the offshore RMB business and more listings of international companies in Hong Kong, could support growth. Our Strategists' valuations look 'fair' on a P/E basis but undemanding from a P/B standpoint. Our DDM suggests that current prices have not fully factored in the low rate environment.

Present Situation: The Industrial Production Index grew 5.6%yoy in May, below the 5.8%yoy growth registered in April. June WPI inflation came in at 9.4%yoy, above May's 9.1%yoy.

Central Issue: We forecast FY2012 GDP growth of 7.5% on the basis of a slowdown in investment demand. On the inflation front, we expect the July print to be in double digits, and headline inflation to peak in September. Our WPI inflation forecast for FY2012 is at 8.6%yoy. Meanwhile, we continue to expect the RBI to hike policy rates by 25bp at its July 26 meeting, and one more hike beyond that in 2011.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Although India's medium-term growth prospects remain promising, its near-term macro backdrop has deteriorated: the fiscal deficit may stay at a high level in FY2012 and inflation could remain elevated over the year.

Hong Kong 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 0.6 5.8 4.9 4.4Fixed Investment -3.9 8.1 3.6 5.2Exports of Goods and Services -10.1 16.8 11.9 11.9Imports of Goods and Services -9.0 17.3 11.3 11.8Domestic Demand 0.7 7.0 3.2 4.3Real GDP -2.7 7.0 5.2 5.2Nominal GDP, US$bn 209.3 225.0 246.8 272.4


Unemployment Rate, % 5.2 4.4 3.2 3.2Population - m 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2

Gross International Reserves 255.8 268.7 293.4 323.4Trade Balance, US$bn -28.9 -43.1 -42.7 -42.1Trade Balance - % of GDP -13.8 -19.2 -17.3 -15.4Current Account, US$bn 18.0 14.8 18.3 23.6Current Account - % of GDP 8.6 6.6 7.4 8.7

M2 Growth 10.7 7.8 5.0 5.0Monetary Base - yoy 99.2 2.9 10.0 10.03 Month Interest Rate 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5

Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn 3.3 -6.6 0.6 4.0Fiscal Balance (% GDP) 1.6 -2.8 0.3 1.5

US$/HK$, eop 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8

Financial Sector

Public Sector




Labour Market

External Sector

India 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP 8.0 8.5 7.5 7.8Nominal GDP 14.6 25.2 17.9 10.7Nominal GDP US$ bn 1383.1 1731.0 2041.4 2260.6Domestic Demand 10.6 8.4 6.6 8.1

Industrial Production 5.3 8.2 7.3 7.3Wholesale Prices 3.8 9.6 8.6 5.1

Gross International Reserves incl Gol 279.1 282.9 291.9 300.4Trade Balance, US$ bn -117.3 -99.1 -169.3 -212.7Trade Balance - % of GDP -8.5 -5.7 -8.3 -9.4Current Account, US$ bn -38.7 -44.6 -68.2 -86.5Current Account - % of GDP -2.8 -2.6 -3.3 -3.8

Broad Money 17.5 16.0 17.1 17.03 Month Interest Rate % 4.4 7.3 8.7 8.2

Cen. Govt Balance, US$ bn -120.3 -131.6 -165.4 -169.5Fiscal Balance % of GDP -8.7 -7.6 -8.1 -7.5Exchange Rate INR/US$ 45.1 44.7 46.2 47.0

Financial Sector, % chg yoy

Public Sector



External Sector

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March).

Enoch Fung and Shirla Sum

Tushar Poddar



Indonesia

Malaysia

Present Situation: We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.2% for both 2011and 2012. June headline inflation rose 5.5%yoy, after 6% in May. We continue to expect core inflation to creep up (albeit slowly), and headline inflation to hover around the top end of the BI's target range of 4%-6% in 2011H2.

Central Issue: The BI kept the benchmark Bank Indonesia rate unchanged at 6.75% in June. We continue to expect it to hike the policy rate by another 50bp in the remainder of this year, taking the policy rate to 7.25% by end-2011. We then expect another 75bp in hikes in 2012, taking the policy rate to 8.00%.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Macro growth potential remains intact, but our Strategists expect more challenging equity market conditions in 2011H2, as room for upside earnings surprises looks limited and further significant re-rating potential seems unlikely.

Present Situation: Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3%yoy in May, up from 3.2% in April. On a sequential basis, CPI inflation rose 0.3%mom from 0.2%mom. The rise in the CPI was driven by increases in the major components of Food and Transport.

Central Issue: We continue to expect rising inflationary pressures in the coming months, as the output gap turns firmly positive in 2011H2. Our CPI inflation forecast for the year is 3.7%, above the upper end of the Central Bank's 2.5%-3.5% forecast range for the year. We continue to expect the BNM to hike rates by 25bp, taking the OPR to 3.25%, at its next meeting on July 7.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Earnings growth and contribution to growth are primarily driven by domestic demand sectors, ranging from staples and plantation stocks to gaming and hotel operators.

Indonesia 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 4.9 4.6 5.3 6.0Fixed Investment 3.3 8.5 8.5 8.6Domestic Demand 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.6Real GDP 4.6 6.1 6.2 6.2Nominal GDP, US$bn 541.2 707.5 844.5 981.6


Trade Balance, US$bn 36.5 42.9 13.8 9.7Trade Balance - % of GDP 6.7 6.1 1.6 1.0Current Account, US$bn 10.6 5.7 2.5 6.1Current Account - % of GDP 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.6

M2 - yoy 13.0 15.4 18.0 20.3Monetary Base - yoy 16.7 28.9 22.0 24.03 Month Interest Rate, % 7.1 6.6 7.6 8.4

Cent Govt Budget Balance -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.1

US$/IDR, eop 9400.0 8991.0 8450.0 8350.0Exchange Rate Forecasts

Public Sector, % GDP


External Sector


Financial Sector

Malaysia 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 0.7 6.5 6.7 5.5Fixed Investment -5.6 9.8 7.9 10.0Domestic Demand -2.4 12.4 6.9 7.0Real GDP -1.6 7.2 5.4 5.6Nominal GDP, US$bn 193.3 237.5 283.4 330.4

Industrial Production -7.7 7.5 4.9 6.1Consumer Prices 0.6 1.7 3.7 3.7


M3 Growth (%) 9.2 7.0 10.0 9.0Monetary Base - yoy -20.0 11.8 14.0 10.43 Month Interest Rate, % 2.2 3.0 3.8 3.8

Fiscal Balance (% GDP) -6.8 -4.7 -5.3 -5.1

US$/MYR, eop 3.42 3.08 2.85 2.90

Financial Sector



External Sector


Public Sector

Enoch Fung

Mark Tan



New Zealand

Philippines

Present Situation: Real GDP rose 0.8%qoq in Q1, which is a remarkable result considering the disruption caused by a major earthquake on February 22. Strong commodity prices and a stabilisation in house prices should allow for a slower pace of deleveraging than experienced over 2010, resulting in better growth outcomes going forward. An unwarranted tightening in financial conditions poses the biggest downside risk to the outlook.

Central Issue: Is the burgeoning domestic recovery becoming a self-sustaining one? We believe it is, although we think it requires further confirmation before a tightening in monetary policy is warranted. This is particularly the case given the strength in the NZ$ and the level of global uncertainty.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: While we believe the NZ$ is overvalued, we see a lack of triggers in the near term to significantly close the valuation gap. We believe the RBNZ can hold off tightening monetary policy until early 2012, although this is dependent on inflation outcomes remaining relatively benign.

Present Situation: Real GDP growth slowed to 4.9%yoy in 2011Q1 from 6.1%yoy in 2010Q4. On the inflation front, June headline CPI inflation picked up to 4.6%yoy from 4.5%yoy in May. Food inflation decelerated to 4.0%yoy in June, from 4.2%yoy in May, while core inflation continued to pick up, to 4.0%yoy, compared with 3.7%yoy in May.

Central Issue: We expect CPI inflation to average 5% this year. We also expect core inflation to continue to rise over the next two years on the back of domestic demand side pressure from the closing of the output gap. Meanwhile, we forecast another 50bp in hikes for the rest of this year.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our Strategists' valuations look slightly expensive relative to past ranges, with major valuation metrics all trading above their respective historical means.

Economist: Philip Borkin [email protected] Copyright 2011 Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand Ltd

All rights reserved.

Philippines 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 4.1 3.4 5.4 5.9Fixed Investment -0.4 19.5 8.9 5.3Domestic Demand 2.8 8.3 6.8 5.7Real GDP 1.1 7.6 5.2 5.5Nominal GDP, US$bn 161.2 199.6 237.6 260.7


Trade Balance, US$bn -4.7 -3.4 -5.3 -6.4Trade Balance - % of GDP -2.9 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5Current Account, US$bn 9.4 8.5 8.2 9.1Current Account - % of GDP 5.8 4.2 3.5 3.5

M2 Growth % 7.7 10.7 15.0 16.7Monetary Base - yoy 9.0 7.0 12.0 14.3Net International Reserves 44.2 62.4 73.4 83.03 Month Interest Rate, % 3.9 0.8 4.0 5.0

Budget Deficit % of GDP -3.9 -3.5 -4.0 -2.5

US$/PHP, eop 46.4 43.9 40.8 40.3

Public Sector



External Sector


Financial Sector

Philip Borkin

Shirla Sum

New Zealand 2009 2010 2011 2012

Private Consumption -0.9 2.3 1.5 1.9Government Consumption 0.6 2.7 3.0 1.5Fixed Investment -11.9 3.3 6.0 14.5Exports of Goods and Services 1.9 2.8 3.0 2.3Imports of Goods and Services -14.9 9.9 7.2 4.3Domestic Demand -3.4 2.6 2.8 4.8Real GDP -2.0 1.7 2.5 3.9Nominal GDP, US$bn 135.5 151.3 165.0 172.1


Population - m 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5Unemployment Rate - % 7.0 6.7 6.5 5.7

Trade Balance, US$bn 1.5 2.1 3.0 1.1Current Account, US$bn -3.2 -5.6 -5.4 -7.1Current Account - % of GDP -2.8 -4.0 -3.5 -4.3

Cash Rate, % 2.5 3.0 2.5 3.890 Day Bank Rate, % 2.8 3.2 2.7 4.1

NZ$/US$, eop 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8Exchange Rate Forecasts



Labour Market

External Sector

Financial Sector



Singapore

South Korea

Present Situation: 2011Q2 advanced GDP slowed to 0.5%yoy from an upwardly revised 9.3%yoy in 2011Q1. This was below our expectations of 2.8%yoy and the consensus expectation of 1%yoy. Sequentially, growth for the second quarter dipped to -7.8%qoq, seasonally-adjusted and annualised (qoq sa ann) versus the Bloomberg consensus of 0%qoq sa ann and 27.2%qoq sa ann previously.

Central Issue: We expect a rebound in 2011H2, partially aided by the easing of the Japan supply-chain disruptions. Our current full-year 2011 GDP growth forecast stands at 5.5%, below the consensus expectation of 6.0% compiled by Consensus Economics and at the lower end of the government's 5%-7% forecast range for the year.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Singapore is our Strategists' preferred market in South Asia given its robust macro backdrop, under-appreciated earnings growth potential, relatively attractive valuations and reasonably strong liquidity profile.

Present Situation: Real GDP growth moderated to 4.2%yoy in 2011Q1 from 4.7%yoy in 2010Q4. Headline CPI inflation picked up to 4.4%yoy in June from 4.1%yoy in May. Headline inflation was up 0.2%mom, an acceleration from 0.0% in May, while core inflation increased 0.3%mom and 3.7%yoy, a slight moderation from 0.5%mom previously. Central Issue: We continue to expect a further 50bp in hikes in 2011 to 3.75%, with the next 25bp hike coming most likely in August. Inflation pressure remains strong, in our view, with the output gap now closed and the labour market tightening. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The US recovery, RMB appreciation and macro policy normalisation in Korea are key macro themes for 2011. KOSPI valuations are among the lowest in the region and remain attractive relative to historical multiples. Globally low interest rates should keep liquidity conditions supportive. That said, due to slowing global growth momentum, we switched to neutral for Korean equities from overweight in early May.

Singapore 2009 2010 2011 2012



Unemployment Rate, % 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7


M3 - yoy 10.5 8.4 7.0 7.0Monetary Base - yoy 6.5 11.5 7.0 7.03 Month Interest Rate, % 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6

Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn -3.1 12.0 20.7 10.6Fiscal Balance - % of GDP -1.7 5.4 7.7 3.5

US$/SGD, eop 1.40 1.29 1.21 1.18




Labour Market

External Sector

Financial Sector

Public Sector

South Korea 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 0.0 4.1 3.2 3.8Fixed Investment -1.4 7.3 2.6 6.6Domestic Demand -2.8 6.0 4.2 4.8Real GDP 0.3 6.2 4.3 4.4Nominal GDP, US$bn 833.9 1014.1 1180.9 1340.4




M3 Growth (%) 9.4 12.1 9.7 9.6Monetary Base - yoy 4.5 9.3 8.9 8.13 Month Interest Rate, % 2.9 2.8 4.2 4.7

Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn -13.8 -4.2 2.7 14.4Gen. Govt Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -0.4 0.2 1.1

US$/KRW, eop 1167.6 1139.0 1030.0 1010.0

Total External Debt (% of GDP) 48.1 42.1 38.0 35.6Tot Public Sector Debt (% of GDP) 32.5 33.3 32.6 34.8

Public Sector


Debt Sector


Labour Market


External Sector

Financial Sector

Mark Tan

Goohoon Kwon



Taiwan

Thailand

Present Situation: Real GDP increased 6.5%yoy in 2011Q1, after 7.1%yoy in 2010Q4. June headline CPI inflation rose to 1.9%yoy, compared with 1.7%yoy in May. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, CPI increased 0.1%mom, the same as in the preceding two months.

Central Issue: We believe the strengthening of the currency (versus last year) had helped to mitigate imported inflationary pressures from higher global commodity prices. We expect headline CPI inflation to reach around 3.0%yoy in 2011H2, averaging 2.3% for the full year of 2011. As for 2012, we see inflation coming in at 2.4%.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our Strategists are strategically positive on Taiwan given its rising, yet attractively-priced, exposure to China, and the fact that the economy is gradually gravitating towards China and global EM, and away from DM.

Taiwan 2009 2010 2011 2012


Industrial Production -8.1 26.9 13.2 18.5Consumer Prices -0.9 1.0 2.3 2.4



M2 Growth 5.7 5.3 5.0 5.0Monetary Base - yoy 8.4 8.6 6.0 6.03 Month Interest Rate, % 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4

Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn -13.1 -13.6 -10.2 -5.3Govt Financial Balance (% GDP) -3.5 -3.2 -2.0 -1.0

US$/TWD, eop 32.0 30.4 27.8 27.5

Tot Public Sector Debt (% of GDP) 51.5 50.6 50.4 48.5


Debt Sector

Public Sector


External Sector


Labour Market

Financial Sector

Present Situation: Real GDP growth moderated to 3.8%yoy in 2010Q4, after 6.6%yoy in 2010Q3. June headline CPI inflation came in at 4.1% from 4.2%yoy in May. Core CPI inflation, which the Central Bank targets, continued to rise, reaching 2.6%yoy after 2.5%yoy in May.

Central Issue: We continue to expect upward pressure on both headline and core, and remain above consensus on our CPI forecasts. We expect headline CPI to continue to rise, and average 4.1% in 2011, above the consensus expectation of 3.9%.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our Strategists' valuations look low in absolute terms, but are near the high end of their historical range. The unstable political environment and the associated risks to economic and corporate earnings growth are still high, and could cap further multiple expansion.

Thailand 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure -1.1 4.8 2.7 3.5Fixed Investment -9.2 9.4 7.8 6.5Domestic Demand -6.9 10.3 3.4 4.1Real GDP -2.3 7.8 3.8 4.2Nominal GDP, US$bn 263.5 318.8 364.8 407.9

Consumer Prices -0.9 3.3 4.1 3.8


M2 Growth - yoy 6.8 10.9 7.0 7.0Monetary Base - yoy 12.8 10.9 9.0 9.03 Month Interest Rate, % 1.4 2.2 3.9 4.4

Federal Budget - % of GDP -4.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.3

US$/THB, eop 33.3 30.2 29.3 29.0Exchange Rate Forecasts



External Sector

Financial Sector

Public Sector

Enoch Fung and Shirla Sum

Mark Tan



Vietnam

Present Situation: GDP growth came in at 5.7%yoy in 2011Q2, up from 5.4%yoy in 2011Q1. Meanwhile, CPI inflation remains at a high level. Inflation rose to 12.8% in 2011Q1 from 10.8% in 2010Q4.

Central Issue: We forecast below-trend real GDP growth of 5.6% and 6.5% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. We expect inflation to peak in 2011Q2 at 19.4%yoy, and remain elevated at an average of 16.0%yoy in 2011H2. This brings annual average inflation to 16.0%.

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We believe the periodic devaluations establish a weakening trend in the VND. Notably, frequent downward adjustments in the VND exchange rate may deter investors and Vietnamese citizens (who hold a large proportion of assets in FX and gold) from holding the local currency even over the short term.

Shirla Sum

Vietnam Economic Forecasts 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumers Expenditure 3.7 9.4 3.8 4.6Fixed Investment 4.3 10.4 4.1 4.6Real GDP 5.3 6.8 5.6 6.5Nominal GDP US$bn 92.9 103.4 117.6 132.2


Unemployment Rate 4.6 4.4 5.2 6.2Population 86.0 87.2 88.3 89.5

Gross International Reserves incl Gold 16.8 10.9 5.6 12.0Trade Balance US$bn -12.9 -12.6 -11.5 -6.7Trade Balance - % of GDP -13.8 -12.2 -9.8 -5.1Current Account US$bn -6.1 -3.9 -5.6 -0.7Current Account - % of GDP -6.6 -3.8 -4.9 -0.6

Exchange Rate eop 18465 19495 20900 21113

External Sector

Financial Sector

GDP Components, % change yoy

Output and Prices, % change yoy

Labour Market

Vietnam



Country Reports – Latin America and Canada Argentina

Brazil

Present Situation: We forecast that real GDP growth will slow to 4.5% in 2011, bolstered by a 5.4% increase in domestic demand. We expect the output gap to remain above neutral and this should raise IPCA inflation to 6.5% in 2011. We see COPOM raising SELIC four more times, by 25bp per meeting, to 13.25%. We also expect the government to tighten fiscal and credit policies, albeit moderately. Central Issue: In 2011, the new administration will need to harmonise macro policies to reconcile growth with price and external stability. Large capital inflows and gains in the terms of trade should strengthen the BRL to R$1.50 in three months, increasing significantly the risk that additional measures will be needed to prevent the BRL from appreciating further. Large external borrowing requirements will leave the exchange rate more vulnerable to gyrations in global risk appetite.

Present Situation: President Cristina Kirchner is leading voters' preferences ahead of the October 2011 presidential election. Excessive fiscal stimulus and a lax monetary policy stance are overheating the economy and generating strong demand-pull pressures on inflation. Given the electoral cycle, we do not expect the authorities to tighten policy. Central Issue: Restoring the credibility of Indec, establishing a more constructive relationship with the multilateral agencies and dealing with the Paris Club payment arrears are key unresolved issues. Real GDP grew at a strong 9.9%yoy during 1Q2011. We expect real GDP growth to grow at an above-trend 7.7% in 2011, with inflation remaining around 25%. The significant increase in imports is likely to push the current account into a small deficit in 2011, down from a 0.8%-of-GDP surplus in 2010. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Monetary policy is expected to remain lax (negative real interest rates). We expect the authorities to accelerate the pace of ARS depreciation after the October elections.

Argentina 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP Growth (%yoy) 0.9 9.2 7.7 3.2Nominal GDP (US$bn) 307.0 368.3 436.7 451.0Consumer Prices (yoy, eop) 7.7 10.9 9.8 13.2

Current Account (US$bn) 11.1 3.1 -0.9 -0.4Trade Balance (%GDP) 6.1 3.9 2.7 2.7Exports (US$bn) 55.7 68.1 77.7 81.9Imports (US$bn) 37.1 53.9 66.0 69.7Exchange Rate (ARS/USD, e.o.p.) 3.80 3.97 4.35 5.10Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 48.0 52.2 48.0 49.0

Monetary Base (%yoy) 11.5 31.6 28.0 21.0Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 13.5 14.6 15.2 15.830 Day CD Rate (e.o.p.) 9.5 9.6 9.3 9.0

Federal Govt Primary Balance 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2Federal Govt Overall Balance -0.6 0.2 -0.2 -1.1

Federal Govt Debt (%GDP) 57.9 47.7 41.6 42.2Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 30.2 28.0 22.5 22.7Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 27.8 19.7 19.1 19.5Total External Debt (%GDP) 47.9 38.0 34.8 34.7

Financial Sector - % of GDP

Debt Sector - % of GDP

Activity and Prices

External Sector

Monetary Sector

Brazil 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP Growth (%yoy) -0.6 7.5 4.5 4.0Nominal GDP (US$bn) 1625.1 2099.1 2582.2 2631.1Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p) 4.3 5.9 6.5 5.9

Current Account (%GDP) -1.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9Trade Balance (%GDP) 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0Exports (US$bn, fob) 153.0 201.9 258.3 300.0Imports (US$bn, fob) 128.7 181.6 237.0 286.0Exchange Rate (BRL/USD), e.o.p.) 1.74 1.66 1.62 1.85Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 238.5 288.6 359.6 342.6

Monetary Base (%yoy) 12.6 24.6 14.0 10.0Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 42.6 44.5 45.4 45.9SELIC Rate (e.o.p.) 8.8 10.8 13.3 13.3

Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) 2.0 2.8 2.6 2.7Public Sector Overall Balance (%GDP) -3.3 -2.6 -3.0 -2.9

Net Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 42.8 40.4 39.8 39.0Net Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP 52.0 50.1 49.8 49.2Net External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) -9.2 -9.7 -10.0 -10.2Total External Debt (%GDP) 12.4 12.2 11.3 11.8

Activities and Prices

Debt Sector

Public Sector

External Sector

Monetary Sector

Alberto M. Ramos

Paulo Leme



Chile

Colombia

Present Situation: Domestic demand is expanding at an exuberant double-digit pace. The inflation outlook remains comfortable. The Bank announced in January a US$12bn reserve accumulation program (US$50mn/day). Central Issue: Real GDP grew a solid 9.8%yoy (+1.3%qoq sa) in 2011Q1 driven by robust domestic demand (+13.4%yoy). We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.6% in 2011, on the back of the post-earthquake reconstruction drive, supportive terms of trade, strong labour market conditions and firming credit flows. Inflation is likely to end 2011 at around the 4.0% upper limit of the inflation target band given intense food-fuel supply shocks during 2011Q1. The current account posted a 1.9%-of-GDP surplus in 2010 and we forecast another surplus of around 0.5% of GDP in 2011. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Fundamental drivers (e.g., rallying copper prices, buoyant domestic demand growth and a widening domestic-foreign interest rate differential) continue to support the CLP. The Central Bank made a tactical pause in the rate normalisation cycle in July.

Present Situation: The economic expansion is firming, with domestic demand growth accelerating. Inflation remains well-behaved. Central Issue: Real GDP grew a solid 5.1%yoy (+1.9%qoq sa) in 2011Q1. We expect growth of 5.5% in 2011. The moderate economic recovery does not present an immediate challenge to the inflation outlook as the economy is still operating with slack. We expect inflation to end 2011 slightly above the 3.0% IT midpoint. The Central Bank started to reduce the level of monetary accommodation in February and we expect it to take the policy rate to 4.5%-5.0% by end-2011. The current account deficit is likely to reach 2.5% of GDP in 2011 and be fully covered by FDI flows. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The COP is trading stronger than its theoretical 'fair value' and may test stronger levels in the near term. The Central Bank has taken the policy rate to a still simulative 4.25% and is expected to make a pause in the cycle in the near term.

Chile 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP Growth (%yoy) -1.7 5.2 6.6 5.4Nominal GDP (US$bn) 161.2 203.4 246.1 268.2Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) -1.5 3.0 3.9 3.0

Current Account (%GDP) 1.6 1.9 0.5 -0.1Trade Balance (%GDP) 8.8 7.8 5.9 4.8Exports (US$bn) 54.0 71.0 83.9 89.0Imports (US$bn) 39.9 55.2 69.3 76.1Exchange Rate (CLP/USD, e.o.p.) 501 475 460 480Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 25.4 27.9 38.0 38.6

Monetary Base (%yoy) 10.4 18.2 23.0 23.0Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 70.2 65.8 66.4 69.7Interest Rate 90 Day PDBC (%) 0.5 3.4 6.2 6.7

Public Sector Primary Balance -3.9 0.1 3.4 2.7Public Sector Overall Balance -4.4 -0.4 2.8 2.0

Total Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 6.1 7.4 7.3 7.2Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 5.3 6.1 6.1 6.0Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2Total External Debt (%GDP) 45.3 42.3 37.0 35.8

Public Sector (%GDP)

Debt Sector, % of GDP

Activity and Prices

External Sector

Monetary Sector

Colombia 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP Growth (%yoy) 1.5 4.3 5.5 4.9Nominal GDP (US$bn) 237.6 289.0 328.4 345.6Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) 2.0 3.2 3.8 3.0

Current Account (US$bn) -5.2 -9.0 -8.0 -8.6Trade Balance (%GDP) 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.2Exports (US$bn, fob) 32.6 39.5 50.8 55.7Imports (US$bn, fob) 30.5 37.5 46.6 51.7Exchange Rate (COP/USD, e.o.p.) 2044 1914 1750 1900Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 25.0 28.1 30.7 31.5

Monetary Base (%yoy) 6.8 13.5 16.0 12.0Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 25.8 27.5 28.6 29.7Interest Rate (e.o.p.) 4.1 3.5 5.2 6.3

Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 1.0Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -2.8 -3.2 -3.5 -2.5

Total Pub Sector Debt (%GDP) 42.8 43.0 44.0 43.2Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 28.3 30.0 31.2 30.6Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 14.4 13.0 12.8 12.6Total External Debt (%GDP) 23.0 21.8 21.0 21.1

Debt Sector

Activity and Prices

Public Sector

External Sector

Financial Sector

Alberto M. Ramos

Alberto M. Ramos



Ecuador

Eduardo Cavallo

Present Situation: Higher oil prices are supporting the smallest OPEC member country on various fronts. As a result, we upgraded our annual growth forecast for 2011 to 3.9% from 2.3%, and for 2012 to 3.5% from 2.5%. The forecast revision is based on the better-than-expected economic performance since 2010Q4 and on the more bullish forecast for oil prices over the forecasting horizon. Central Issue: Notwithstanding the forecast revisions, the heterodox policy mix continues to limit domestic and foreign investment. This makes the economy increasingly more dependent on the oil sector and reduces the basis for sustainable long-term growth. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: CDS spreads are likely to remain distressed owing to the weak payment culture and the government's market-unfriendly heterodox policy mix.

Ecuador 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP Growth (%yoy) 0.4 3.6 3.9 3.5Nominal GDP (US$bn) 52.0 57.6 62.0 66.4Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) 4.3 3.3 5.3 4.0

Current Account (US$bn) -0.2 -1.9 -2.3 -2.5Trade Balance (%GDP) 0.1 -1.8 -2.0 -2.2Exports (US$bn, fob) 14.4 18.1 20.8 23.9Imports (US$bn, fob) 14.3 19.6 22.6 26.0Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 3.8 2.6 2.7 3.0

Monetary Base (%yoy) 10.6 19.0 6.8 -2.7Credit to Private Sector (%GDP) 26.7 29.9 32.0 28.6Interest Rate (e.o.p.) 5.2 4.3 5.0 5.5

Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) -3.8 -1.4 -4.8 -4.8Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -4.3 -2.1 -6.0 -6.0

Total Public Debt (%GDP) 19.9 23.4 29.7 33.7Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 5.5 8.2 13.6 17.2Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 14.4 15.2 16.1 16.6Total External Debt (%GDP) 26.0 24.3 25.0 25.6

Financial Sector

Debt Sector

External Sector


Monetary Sector

Eduardo Cavallo

Dominican Republic

Present Situation: In 2011, we expect real GDP growth to decelerate to 5.4%yoy from 7.8%yoy due to the withdrawal of policy stimulus as mandated by the IMF SBA program. We see inflation accelerating in 2011 (8.7%yoy) due to supply-side shocks, but receding in 2012 (to 5.9%yoy). Central Issue: We have a constructive short-term outlook on the economy. However, we are more cautious about the medium term. This is because in order to make growth sustainable, the country needs to persist with structural reforms. However, the forthcoming electoral cycle (presidential elections are due in May 2012), the expiry of the IMF program (February 2012) and increased social tensions suggest that it will become increasingly difficult for the government to pursue reforms. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The financing of hefty deficits is not a problem in the short term. However, a weak external liquidity position is a constraint on credit ratings.

Dominican Republic 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP (% chg yoy) 3.5 7.8 5.4 5.5Nominal GDP (Level) 46.8 51.8 54.7 59.3Consumer Prices (% chg yoy) 4.3 9.2 11.8 9.1

Current Account (% of GDP) -5.0 -8.6 -9.0 -6.2Trade Balance - % of GDP -8.0 -11.7 -12.5 -9.9Export Growth -7.4 11.6 8.0 12.1Import Growth -9.8 14.4 10.0 13.1Exchange Rate (Quarterly Path) 36.2 37.5 39.0 41.0Gross International Reserves incl 3.3 3.8 3.4 3.2

Monetary Growth 16.1 8.1 – –Credit to the Private Sector 8.4 21.3 7.1 8.5Policy Rate 4.0 5.0 9.0 9.0

Primary Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) -1.6 -0.4 0.8 0.5

Gross Public Debt - % of GDP 28.3 28.6 31.4 34.8Total External Debt (% of GDP) 17.6 19.2 20.0 21.0Total External Debt (US$bn) 8.2 9.9 10.9 12.5

Activity and Prices

External Sector

Monetary Sector

Public Sector

Debt Sector



Present Situation: We forecast real GDP growth of 7.8% in 2011, fuelled by a substantial public investment project: US$20bn over five years to finance the expansion of the Panama Canal and other public works. This project is expected to more than double the Canal's capacity upon completion (scheduled for 2014). Central Issue: A strong macroeconomic performance and a solid fiscal outlook earned Panama investment grade status in 2010. The main challenge for the authorities in 2011H2 is to manage the risk of overheating. This could oblige the authorities to apply an abrupt brake to the public investment projects that are underway. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The positive credit outlook appears to have been priced in already, as Panamanian sovereign bonds are trading at tight spreads compared with their peers.

Panama 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP 3.0 7.5 7.8 7.0Nominal GDP (Level) ** 24.9 27.2 29.9 33.0GDP per Capita USD 7197.4 7771.1 8317.8 9163.9


Trade Balance 4.9 -4.7 -4.0 -3.9Current Account -0.2 -10.9 -9.8 -9.2

Credit to the Private Sector % of GDP 86.4 90.0 90.0 90.0

Primary Balance 1.9 1.2 0.2 1.2Overall Balance -1.0 -1.9 -2.4 -1.2

Total External Debt 50.0 51.5 48.4 45.5Total Gross Public Sector Debt 40.8 38.4 37.3 35.0

Debt Sector % of GDP

GDP Components,% chg, yoy


External Sector % of GDP

Financial Sector

Public Sector % of GDP

Eduardo Cavallo

Mexico

Present Situation: Inflation, headline and core, has been surprising on the downside. The economy continues to recover at a moderate pace against a backdrop of a still negative output gap and a significant amount of slack in the labour market. The authorities remain firm believers in the benefits of a free-floating currency. Central Issue: We forecast that real GDP growth will moderate to 4.4% in 2011, after growing 5.4% in 2010. Headline INPC inflation will likely moderate to 3.3% in 2011 from 4.4% in 2010. The external accounts are a source of macro resilience. We forecast a minor 0.5%-of-GDP current account deficit in 2011, which is about a quarter of projected FDI inflows. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect the Central Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, at least until 2012Q1.

Mexico 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP Growth (%yoy) -6.1 5.4 4.4 4.5Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 879.7 1034.8 1211.1 1324.7Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) 3.6 4.4 3.2 3.4

Current Account (US$bn) -6.4 -5.6 -5.5 -7.6Trade Balance (%GDP) -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6Exports (US$bn) 229.7 298.5 335.6 358.4Imports (US$bn) 234.4 301.5 339.3 366.8Exchange Rate (MXN/USD, e.o.p.) 13.06 12.36 11.50 11.70Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 90.8 113.6 144.7 170.1

Monetary Base (%yoy) 9.4 9.7 9.0 9.0Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 13.5 13.3 13.8 14.0Tasa de Fondeo Rate (e.o.p.) 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.5

Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) -0.1 -0.9 1.8 1.9Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -2.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.3

Total Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 29.4 25.6 24.9 23.2Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 29.8 25.7 24.9 23.2Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0Total External Debt (%GDP) 22.3 23.8 19.2 18.4

Public Sector

Debt Sector

Activities and Prices % chg yoy

External Sector

Monetary Sector

Alberto Ramos

Panama



Venezuela

Present Situation: We revised our real GDP growth forecast for 2011 down to 6.4% from 6.8%yoy in recognition of the deceleration in private investment growth expected for 2Q. The risks to the growth outlook are balanced: while the incoming government may provide additional fiscal stimulus, business confidence could remain subdued. Central Issue: We expect inflation to increase to 3.27%yoy in 2011, which is above the upper end of the Central Bank's tight target band. For 2012, we see inflation gradually declining back towards the target.The current account deficit is likely to hover around 2.5% of GDP in 2011, and should be easily financed by solid FDI inflows. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect the Central Bank to raise the policy rate at least once more during 2011H2 in order to consolidate the rate normalisation cycle. The Bank would likely raise the policy rate by more only if the inflation outlook were to deteriorate.

Peru 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP Growth (%yoy) 0.9 8.8 6.4 6.2Nominal GDP (US$bn) 127.0 153.8 169.9 183.5Consumer Prices - yoy, end period 0.2 2.1 3.3 2.7

Current Account (US$bn) 0.2 -2.3 -4.3 -6.0Trade Balance (%GDP) 4.7 4.4 3.5 2.2Exports (US$bn, fob) 27.0 35.6 41.2 42.7Imports (US$bn, fob) 21.0 28.8 35.2 38.7Exchange rate (PEN/USD, e.o.p.) 2.89 2.81 2.80 2.82Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 33.2 44.2 48.9 51.8

Monetary Base (% change, yoy) 5.5 45.3 -2.8 0.7Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 24.7 24.8 26.5 28.0Reference Interest Rate (e.o.p.) 1.3 3.0 4.5 4.5

Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) -0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -1.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.1


Public Sector

Debt Sector

Activity and Prices

External Sector

Financial Sector

Eduardo Cavallo

Present Situation: The policy mix remains heterodox and market-unfriendly. President Chavez has been diagnosed with cancer and is expected to undergo treatment over the next few months. The medical prognosis remains unknown. Central Issue: We forecast a moderate 4.0% real GDP expansion in 2011 (up from -1.5% in 2010) on the back of policy stimulus, higher oil prices and a favourable statistical base. Inflation is high and endemic: low investment in the economy, together with loose monetary and fiscal policy, have entrenched inflation at above 25%yoy despite a deep and protracted 2-year recession. As expected, the authorities devalued the VEF early in 2011. The external accounts remain solid (a current account surplus of 6.0% of GDP in 2010) but the strength of the sovereign balance sheet has been eroding. Higher oil prices are likely to secure a current account surplus of 6%-plus in 2011. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: High hard currency yields are attractive but the credit fundamentals story is slowly deteriorating.

Venezuela 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP Growth (%yoy) -3.2 -1.5 4.0 4.3Nominal GDP (US$bn) 326.1 237.7 298.5 367.2Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) 26.9 27.4 26.7 19.0

Current Account (US$bn) 8.6 14.4 18.5 11.0Trade Balance (%GDP) 5.9 12.8 10.4 6.0Exports (US$bn, fob) 57.6 65.8 80.4 82.0Imports (US$bn, fob) 38.4 38.6 47.4 56.2Exchange Rate (VEF/USD, e.o.p.) 2.2 4.3 4.3 4.3Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 35.8 31.2 27.8 26.0

Monetary Base (%yoy) 21.2 21.0 29.0 27.0Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 21.8 18.0 17.4 18.1Interest Rate (e.o.p.) 12.6 12.6 12.0 12.0

Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -5.5 -3.3 -2.4 -2.4Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) -4.0 -1.5 -0.5 -0.5


Debt Sector


External Sector

Financial Sector

Public Sector

Alberto M. Ramos

* In January 2008, Venezuela redenominated the Bolivar: VEF = VEB/1000.

Peru



Present Situation: Canadian growth was solid in Q4 and Q1, although with significant help from inventory accumulation early in 2011. Q2 growth should be significantly softer, dragged down by higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions in the vehicle sector. The Bank of Canada has kept the overnight rate target at 1% since September 2010. Central Issue: The robustness of domestic demand. On the upside, consumer spending grew at a healthy pace in 2010 and financial conditions remain fairly supportive. On the downside, housing prices look stretched, consumer indebtedness is high and federal fiscal stimulus is beginning to fade. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Canada suffered less credit damage than most developed markets, and continues to benefit from sound fiscal and monetary policies. Key risks are household indebtedness, the housing sector and the international competitiveness of manufacturing in light of the appreciation in the Canadian Dollar.

Canada 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP -2.8 3.2 2.9 3.2Nominal GDP, C$bn 1529.0 1624.6 1728.2 1827.7Consumer Prices - yoy 0.3 1.8 2.7 2.0Final Domestic Demand - yoy -2.1 4.5 4.4 3.4Business Fixed Investment - yoy -20.8 7.3 13.7 9.5

Merchandise Trade Balance -4.7 -9.0 3.4 12.8Current Account Balance -45.2 -50.9 -40.2 -31.3Current Account - % of GDP -3.0 -3.1 -2.3 -1.7

M1 Growth (%) 13.2 11.7 8.5 7.9M2++ Growth - yoy 24.1 -2.9 5.3 6.9Overnight Interest Rate Target %, eop 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.5Prime Rate %, eop 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.53 Month BAs - %, eop 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.610 Year Govt. Bond Yield, eop 3.6 3.1 3.8 4.5Exchange Rate - $/C$ 1.06 1.01 0.95 0.95

Federal Bud Bal C$bn, fiscal year 0.0 -25.0 -15.0 0.0Government Financial Bal 5.0 -30.0 -20.0 -5.0Govt Financial Balance (% GDP) 0.3 -1.8 -1.2 -0.3

External Sector

Financial Sector

Public Sector

Activities and Prices % chg yoy

Andrew Tilton

Canada



Size of the World

Memo Items:

GDP (PPP Share of GDP (Current Share of Difference Stock Market Share of FX Share of Weights1); World Prices); World in Share Capitalisation World Reserves World

2010 US$bn Total (%) 2010 US$bn Total (%) US$bn Total (%) US$bn Total (%)(1) (2) (1-2) (mid-Jul11) (end-1Q11)

United States 14,658 21.95 14,658 25.06 -3.11 14,838 33.99 52 0.63China 10,108 15.14 5,878 10.05 5.08 596 1.36 3,045 36.71Japan 4,319 6.47 5,459 9.33 -2.87 3,737 8.56 1,042 12.56India 4,010 6.01 1,538 2.63 3.38 1,125 2.58 274 3.31Germany 2,939 4.40 3,316 5.67 -1.27 1,527 3.50 37 0.45Russia 2,225 3.33 1,465 2.50 0.83 932 2.14 454 5.48UK 2,186 3.27 2,247 3.84 -0.57 3,152 7.22 54 0.65Brazil 2,186 3.27 2,090 3.57 -0.30 1,238 2.84 309 3.72France 2,151 3.22 2,583 4.42 -1.19 1,855 4.25 39 0.47Italy 1,775 2.66 2,055 3.51 -0.86 589 1.35 37 0.45Mexico 1,554 2.33 1,039 1.78 0.55 418 0.96 118 1.42Korea 1,462 2.19 1,007 1.72 0.47 953 2.18 294 3.54Spain 1,369 2.05 1,410 2.41 -0.36 642 1.47 13 0.16Canada 1,333 2.00 1,574 2.69 -0.70 1,861 4.26 47 0.57Indonesia 1,031 1.54 707 1.21 0.34 333 0.76 99 1.20Turkey 959 1.44 742 1.27 0.17 226 0.52 85 1.03Australia 885 1.32 1,236 2.11 -0.79 1,204 2.76 27 0.33Taiwan 812 1.22 431 0.74 0.48 559 1.28 393 4.73Poland 719 1.08 469 0.80 0.28 166 0.38 99 1.20Netherlands 679 1.02 783 1.34 -0.32 452 1.03 10 0.12Argentina 633 0.95 370 0.63 0.32 48 0.11 46 0.55Thailand 587 0.88 319 0.55 0.33 238 0.55 174 2.10South Africa 526 0.79 357 0.61 0.18 465 1.07 41 0.49Egypt 499 0.75 218 0.37 0.37 53 0.12 27 0.32Colombia 431 0.64 286 0.49 0.16 207 0.47 28 0.33Malaysia 414 0.62 238 0.41 0.21 361 0.83 109 1.32Belgium 394 0.59 466 0.80 -0.21 246 0.56 8 0.10Sweden 354 0.53 456 0.78 -0.25 501 1.15 41 0.49Philippines 351 0.53 189 0.32 0.20 144 0.33 57 0.69Venezuela 348 0.52 291 0.50 0.02 5 0.01 6 0.08Austria 331 0.50 377 0.64 -0.15 120 0.27 7 0.08Switzerland 326 0.49 524 0.90 -0.41 1,251 2.87 225 2.72Greece 324 0.48 305 0.52 -0.04 56 0.13 0 0.00Hong Kong 323 0.48 225 0.38 0.10 1,582 3.62 273 3.29Ukraine 304 0.45 136 0.23 0.22 - - 35 0.42Singapore 293 0.44 223 0.38 0.06 530 1.21 232 2.80Peru 275 0.41 153 0.26 0.15 84 0.19 44 0.53Czech Republic 261 0.39 192 0.33 0.06 50 0.12 40 0.48Chile 258 0.39 203 0.35 0.04 283 0.65 30 0.36Norway 256 0.38 414 0.71 -0.32 260 0.60 50 0.60Portugal 247 0.37 229 0.39 -0.02 76 0.17 2 0.03Israel 219 0.33 213 0.36 -0.04 157 0.36 73 0.88Denmark 203 0.30 311 0.53 -0.23 203 0.46 80 0.96Kazakhstan 194 0.29 138 0.24 0.05 - - 32 0.38Hungary 189 0.28 129 0.22 0.06 30 0.07 49 0.60Finland 186 0.28 239 0.41 -0.13 174 0.40 6 0.07Ireland 174 0.26 204 0.35 -0.09 72 0.16 0 0.01Slovakia 121 0.18 87 0.15 0.03 - - 0 0.00New Zealand 120 0.18 140 0.24 -0.06 53 0.12 17 0.21Ecuador 114 0.17 59 0.10 0.07 - - 3 0.03Bulgaria 91 0.14 48 0.08 0.05 2 0.00 14 0.17Croatia 78 0.12 61 0.10 0.01 - - 16 0.19

World 66,782 100 58,487 100 – 43,657 100 8,293 100

Industrial World 35,207 51 38,986 66 -14 32,871 75 1,795 22of which: G7 29,361 43 31,891 54 -11 27,560 63 1,309 16 Euroland 10,688 16 12,055 20 -5 5,810 13 161 2

Emerging World2 33,281 49 20,463 34 14 10,786 25 6,498 78

Non Japan Asia3 19,390 28 10,754 18 10 6,420 15 4,951 60Latin America 5,801 8 4,491 8 1 2,283 5 582 7Eastern Europe 5,392 8 3,629 6 2 1,407 3 825 10Middle East & Africa 2,698 4 1,590 3 1 675 2 140 2

1US used as benchmark country for computing GDP in PPP terms.2The 'Emerging World' includes three countries not in the above table: Romania (Eastern Europe), Iran and Saudi Arabia (Middle East & Africa). The 'World' includes only those countries in the table.3'Non Japan Asia' includes both industrial and emerging market countries in the region.



World Data World Exports

OECD * US JAPAN EMU-12 GERMANYNON JAPAN

ASIA ASEAN-4 CHINALATIN

AMERICA

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

TOTAL EXPORTS (US$bn)

2010 GDP (nominal US$ bn)

Origin EconomyOECD 710.9 168.8 2538.2 666.1 1075.5 364.6 444.8 385.4 408.1 7397.0 39053.8% of total exports 9.6 2.3 34.3 9.0 14.5 4.9 6.0 5.2 5.5% of GDP 1.8 0.4 6.5 1.7 2.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0UNITED STATES 568.5 60.5 176.4 48.2 242.9 94.6 91.9 241.5 17.7 1277.6 14657.8% of total exports 44.5 4.7 13.8 3.8 19.0 7.4 7.2 18.9 1.4% of GDP 3.9 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.1JAPAN 228.1 120.5 62.9 20.3 367.3 129.8 149.6 36.8 9.6 771.7 5458.9% of total exports 29.6 15.6 8.2 2.6 47.6 16.8 19.4 4.8 1.2% of GDP 4.2 2.2 1.2 0.4 6.7 2.4 2.7 0.7 0.2EUROLAND 2516.7 205.0 39.8 464.2 248.4 109.6 3767.3 11967.3% of total exports 66.8 5.4 1.1 12.3 6.6 2.9% of GDP 21.0 1.7 0.3 3.9 2.1 0.9GERMANY 725.3 65.5 13.1 499.4 107.2 24.5 58.3 28.6 9.6 1206.1 3315.6% of total exports 60.1 5.4 1.1 41.4 8.9 2.0 4.8 2.4 0.8% of GDP 21.9 2.0 0.4 15.1 3.2 0.7 1.8 0.9 0.3FRANCE 334.4 26.2 7.4 246.1 83.5 39.9 16.2 14.2 10.9 30.4 510.1 2582.5% of total exports 65.6 5.1 1.5 48.3 16.4 7.8 3.2 2.8 2.1 6.0% of GDP 12.9 1.0 0.3 9.5 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.2ITALY 255.4 25.5 5.3 184.6 58.1 28.8 9.8 11.2 11.8 44.3 440.8 2055.1% of total exports 57.9 5.8 1.2 41.9 13.2 6.5 2.2 2.5 2.7 10.0% of GDP 12.4 1.2 0.3 9.0 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.2UNITED KINGDOM 259.8 42.5 5.3 185.1 41.7 29.5 12.5 7.9 5.4 17.0 373.6 2247.5% of total exports 69.5 11.4 1.4 49.5 11.2 7.9 3.3 2.1 1.4 4.5% of GDP 11.6 1.9 0.2 8.2 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.8NETHERLANDS 443.8 21.4 3.7 348.6 147.5 21.2 9.2 6.9 7.2 35.3 567.6 783.3% of total exports 78.2 3.8 0.7 61.4 26.0 3.7 1.6 1.2 1.3 6.2% of GDP 56.7 2.7 0.5 44.5 18.8 2.7 1.2 0.9 0.9 4.5SPAIN 167.0 7.8 1.7 135.2 25.8 8.6 2.7 3.4 9.1 14.3 241.3 1410.0% of total exports 69.2 3.3 0.7 56.0 10.7 3.6 1.1 1.4 3.8 5.9% of GDP 11.8 0.6 0.1 9.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0AUSTRIA 90.8 5.2 1.2 75.3 47.7 7.3 2.0 3.3 2.1 25.2 148.4 376.8% of total exports 61.2 3.5 0.8 50.8 32.1 4.9 1.3 2.2 1.4 17.0% of GDP 24.1 1.4 0.3 20.0 12.7 1.9 0.5 0.9 0.6 6.7BELGIUM 315.8 21.3 3.7 246.6 76.8 22.2 5.0 6.3 5.1 20.4 402.8 465.7% of total exports 78.4 5.3 0.9 61.2 19.1 5.5 1.2 1.6 1.3 5.1% of GDP 67.8 4.6 0.8 53.0 16.5 4.8 1.1 1.4 1.1 4.4DENMARK 73.7 5.7 1.8 37.9 16.8 5.8 2.4 2.2 1.3 5.3 95.0 310.8% of total exports 77.6 5.9 1.9 39.8 17.6 6.1 2.6 2.4 1.3 5.6% of GDP 23.7 1.8 0.6 12.2 5.4 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.7FINLAND 42.5 4.8 1.1 20.5 7.0 6.6 1.7 3.4 1.4 3.9 68.4 239.2% of total exports 62.1 7.0 1.7 30.0 10.2 9.7 2.5 5.0 2.0 5.7% of GDP 17.8 2.0 0.5 8.6 2.9 2.8 0.7 1.4 0.6 1.6GREECE 9.9 0.8 0.0 7.3 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.0 21.1 305.4% of total exports 47.1 4.0 0.2 34.8 10.9 2.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 19.0% of GDP 3.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3IRELAND 94.8 24.8 2.3 45.9 9.1 5.3 1.9 2.1 1.1 2.6 112.3 204.3% of total exports 84.4 22.1 2.0 40.9 8.1 4.7 1.7 1.8 1.0 2.4% of GDP 46.4 12.1 1.1 22.5 4.5 2.6 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.3PORTUGAL 36.9 1.7 0.2 31.1 6.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.7 48.5 229.3% of total exports 76.2 3.5 0.3 64.2 13.1 1.5 0.6 0.6 2.7 3.5% of GDP 16.1 0.7 0.1 13.6 2.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7SWEDEN 110.3 9.6 1.8 58.9 15.8 10.0 2.3 4.5 3.0 8.6 150.0 455.8% of total exports 73.5 6.4 1.2 39.2 10.5 6.7 1.6 3.0 2.0 5.7% of GDP 24.2 2.1 0.4 12.9 3.5 2.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.9SWITZERLAND 139.6 19.8 6.5 93.5 37.5 23.3 11.3 7.2 4.9 8.2 195.1 523.8% of total exports 71.6 10.2 3.3 47.9 19.2 12.0 5.8 3.7 2.5 4.2% of GDP 26.7 3.8 1.2 17.8 7.2 4.5 2.2 1.4 0.9 1.6ICELAND 4.0 0.2 0.1 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6 12.6% of total exports 86.6 4.5 2.5 61.4 14.1 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.8% of GDP 31.6 1.7 0.9 22.4 5.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7NORWAY 113.2 6.5 1.6 53.8 15.0 6.9 3.5 2.3 1.2 4.1 131.7 414.5% of total exports 86.0 5.0 1.2 40.9 11.4 5.2 2.6 1.8 0.9 3.1% of GDP 27.3 1.6 0.4 13.0 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 1.0CANADA 335.5 289.9 8.9 15.6 3.8 24.2 6.3 12.9 9.3 1.6 387.1 1574.1% of total exports 86.7 74.9 2.3 4.0 1.0 6.3 1.6 3.3 2.4 0.4% of GDP 21.3 18.4 0.6 1.0 0.2 1.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1AUSTRALIA 74.0 8.5 40.1 8.6 1.7 108.3 26.2 53.1 2.7 0.6 211.8 1235.5% of total exports 34.9 4.0 18.9 4.0 0.8 51.2 12.4 25.1 1.3 0.3% of GDP 6.0 0.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 8.8 2.1 4.3 0.2 0.0NEW ZEALAND 16.1 2.7 2.4 2.0 0.5 8.6 2.2 3.5 0.4 0.1 31.4 140.4% of total exports 51.3 8.6 7.8 6.5 1.5 27.5 7.1 11.1 1.3 0.3% of GDP 11.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 0.3 6.1 1.6 2.5 0.3 0.1* Excluding Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Korea, Slovakia, and Turkey

EXPORTS TO (US$ bn, 2009)





AMERICA


TOTAL EXPORTS (US$bn)


Origin EconomyNON JAPAN ASIA 1440.4 520.9 276.5 410.3 123.2 599.9 556.3 217.7 79.2 3926.2 10753.9% of total exports 36.7 13.3 7.0 10.5 3.1 15.3 14.2 5.5 2.0% of GDP 13.4 4.8 2.6 3.8 1.1 5.6 5.2 2.0 0.7ASEAN-4 396.5 143.3 76.9 103.6 34.8 798.1 444.7 124.0 24.6 1480.2 1885.4% of total exports 26.8 9.7 5.2 7.0 2.3 53.9 30.0 8.4 1.7% of GDP 21.0 7.6 4.1 5.5 1.8 42.3 23.6 6.6 1.3CHINA 734.8 283.7 120.3 226.1 68.1 437.3 319.3 75.2 42.0 1580.4 5878.3% of total exports 46.5 17.9 7.6 14.3 4.3 27.7 20.2 4.8 2.7% of GDP 12.5 4.8 2.0 3.8 1.2 7.4 5.4 1.3 0.7HONG KONG 108.3 42.8 16.5 30.5 10.4 241.6 13.5 205.8 4.9 4.0 390.3 225.0% of total exports 27.7 11.0 4.2 7.8 2.7 61.9 3.5 52.7 1.3 1.0% of GDP 48.1 19.0 7.3 13.6 4.6 107.4 6.0 91.4 2.2 1.8INDONESIA 61.8 14.3 25.8 14.2 3.0 71.5 28.8 15.7 3.1 1.8 157.8 706.7% of total exports 39.2 9.1 16.3 9.0 1.9 45.3 18.3 9.9 2.0 1.2% of GDP 8.7 2.0 3.6 2.0 0.4 10.1 4.1 2.2 0.4 0.3KOREA 121.0 46.0 26.0 28.3 11.7 193.1 32.0 125.5 28.7 14.4 461.6 1007.1% of total exports 26.2 10.0 5.6 6.1 2.5 41.8 6.9 27.2 6.2 3.1% of GDP 12.0 4.6 2.6 2.8 1.2 19.2 3.2 12.5 2.8 1.4MALAYSIA 79.8 24.2 20.6 17.8 5.2 122.5 50.6 45.8 3.8 2.2 237.3 238.0% of total exports 33.6 10.2 8.7 7.5 2.2 51.6 21.3 19.3 1.6 0.9% of GDP 33.5 10.2 8.7 7.5 2.2 51.5 21.3 19.2 1.6 0.9PHILIPPINES 22.9 7.7 7.4 6.0 2.4 29.8 14.3 10.9 0.5 0.5 57.8 188.7% of total exports 39.6 13.4 12.7 10.3 4.2 51.7 24.8 18.9 0.9 0.8% of GDP 12.1 4.1 3.9 3.2 1.3 15.8 7.6 5.8 0.3 0.2SINGAPORE 87.3 23.0 16.4 24.8 6.2 200.4 55.7 36.5 10.5 2.4 353.6 222.7% of total exports 24.7 6.5 4.6 7.0 1.7 56.7 15.8 10.3 3.0 0.7% of GDP 39.2 10.3 7.4 11.1 2.8 90.0 25.0 16.4 4.7 1.1TAIWAN 79.9 31.5 18.0 19.9 6.5 162.9 53.8 76.9 80.0 3.8 274.6 430.6% of total exports 29.1 11.5 6.6 7.2 2.4 59.3 19.6 28.0% of GDP 18.6 7.3 4.2 4.6 1.5 37.8 12.5 17.9THAILAND 71.7 20.2 20.4 14.3 3.3 74.4 16.7 21.5 4.7 3.2 195.4 318.9% of total exports 36.7 10.4 10.5 7.3 1.7 38.1 8.6 11.0 2.4 1.6% of GDP 22.5 6.3 6.4 4.5 1.0 23.3 5.3 6.7 1.5 1.0INDIA 72.9 27.5 5.0 28.5 6.4 48.8 15.0 17.7 6.4 4.9 217.3 1538.0% of total exports 33.6 12.6 2.3 13.1 3.0 22.5 6.9 8.1 3.0 2.3% of GDP 4.7 1.8 0.3 1.9 0.4 3.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.3LATIN AMERICA 403.2 271.0 18.1 71.5 15.2 102.4 14.5 65.1 4.9 702.1 3993.7% of total exports 57.4 38.6 2.6 10.2 2.2 14.6 2.1 9.3 0.7% of GDP 10.1 6.8 0.5 1.8 0.4 2.6 0.4 1.6 0.1ARGENTINA 16.6 3.6 0.9 8.8 1.6 10.7 1.5 6.2 24.2 0.8 68.0 370.3% of total exports 24.5 5.4 1.3 13.0 2.3 15.8 2.3 9.1 35.6 1.2% of GDP 4.5 1.0 0.2 2.4 0.4 2.9 0.4 1.7 6.5 0.2BRAZIL 72.2 19.5 7.1 36.3 8.1 45.9 7.0 30.8 31.6 2.3 201.9 2090.3% of total exports 35.8 9.6 3.5 18.0 4.0 22.7 3.5 15.2 15.6 1.1% of GDP 3.5 0.9 0.3 1.7 0.4 2.2 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.1CHILE 27.0 6.7 6.8 10.0 1.0 22.6 4.5 15.9 8.2 0.6 67.0 203.3% of total exports 40.3 10.0 10.2 14.9 1.4 33.7 6.7 23.8 12.2 0.8% of GDP 13.3 3.3 3.4 4.9 0.5 11.1 2.2 7.8 4.0 0.3MEXICO 251.8 210.8 3.2 13.1 3.7 10.5 1.5 6.2 11.9 1.1 286.8 1039.1% of total exports 87.8 73.5 1.1 4.6 1.3 3.7 0.5 2.2 4.2 0.4% of GDP 24.2 20.3 0.3 1.3 0.4 1.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.1VENEZUELA 35.6 30.3 0.1 3.3 0.7 12.7 0.0 6.0 3.7 0.2 78.4 290.7% of total exports 45.4 38.7 0.1 4.2 1.0 16.2 0.1 7.7 4.7 0.2% of GDP 12.2 10.4 0.0 1.1 0.3 4.4 0.0 2.1 1.3 0.1CENTRAL EUROPE 251.9 10.1 1.8 239.7 118.7 14.0 2.7 6.6 3.4 492.4 1531.5% of total exports 51.2 2.1 0.4 48.7 24.1 2.8 0.5 1.3 0.7% of GDP 16.5 0.7 0.1 15.7 7.8 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.2CZECH REPUBLIC 78.3 2.2 0.5 75.6 42.8 3.0 0.7 1.2 0.8 26.2 132.1 192.2% of total exports 59.3 1.7 0.4 57.2 32.4 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 19.8% of GDP 40.8 1.1 0.3 39.3 22.3 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 13.6HUNGARY 49.7 2.0 0.6 47.7 23.9 3.4 0.7 1.6 0.5 20.4 95.4 129.0% of total exports 52.1 2.1 0.6 50.0 25.0 3.6 0.7 1.6 0.6 21.4% of GDP 38.6 1.6 0.5 37.0 18.5 2.6 0.5 1.2 0.4 15.8POLAND 86.2 2.1 0.4 81.0 40.5 2.8 0.5 1.6 0.8 23.2 150.7 468.5% of total exports 57.2 1.4 0.3 53.7 26.9 1.8 0.4 1.1 0.5 15.4% of GDP 18.4 0.4 0.1 17.3 8.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 4.9TURKEY 37.7 3.8 0.3 35.5 11.5 4.8 0.8 2.3 1.3 7.4 114.1 741.9% of total exports 33.1 3.4 0.2 31.1 10.1 4.2 0.7 2.0 1.1 6.5% of GDP 5.1 0.5 0.0 4.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.0* Excluding Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Korea, Slovakia, and Turkey

EXPORTS TO (US$ bn, 2009)



World Imports



AMERICA


TOTAL IMPORTS (US$bn)


Origin EconomyOECD 515.6 237.8 2627.7 782.8 1531.9 215.9 971.2 446.2 380.1 8120.6 39053.8% of total imports 6.3 2.9 32.4 9.6 18.9 2.7 12.0 5.5 4.7% of GDP 1.3 0.6 6.7 2.0 3.9 0.6 2.5 1.1 1.0UNITED STATES 736.9 123.6 246.0 84.4 562.4 72.8 383.0 293.3 15.4 1968.1 14657.8% of total imports 57.7 6.3 12.5 4.3 28.6 3.7 19.5 14.9 0.8% of GDP 5.0 0.8 1.7 0.6 3.8 0.5 2.6 2.0 0.1JAPAN 193.7 69.0 53.1 19.3 277.3 38.3 153.4 23.5 2.9 694.0 5458.9% of total imports 25.1 9.9 7.6 2.8 40.0 5.5 22.1 3.4 0.4% of GDP 3.5 1.3 1.0 0.4 5.1 0.7 2.8 0.4 0.1EUROLAND 2363.3 150.8 62.7 474.6 268.3 3759.3 11967.3% of total imports 62.9 4.0 1.7 12.6 7.1% of GDP 19.7 1.3 0.5 4.0 2.2GERMANY 628.9 37.6 20.9 459.9 123.6 18.0 82.9 16.3 2.9 1054.3 3315.6% of total imports 52.1 3.6 2.0 43.6 11.7 1.7 7.9 1.5 0.3% of GDP 19.0 1.1 0.6 13.9 3.7 0.5 2.5 0.5 0.1FRANCE 416.6 20.6 6.3 339.6 114.6 47.1 6.5 30.3 7.3 35.6 594.5 2582.5% of total imports 81.7 3.5 1.1 57.1 19.3 7.9 1.1 5.1 1.2 6.0% of GDP 16.1 0.8 0.2 13.1 4.4 1.8 0.3 1.2 0.3 1.4ITALY 253.2 12.8 5.6 206.5 77.2 53.3 4.7 37.7 10.7 40.4 475.6 2055.1% of total imports 57.4 2.7 1.2 43.4 16.2 11.2 1.0 7.9 2.2 8.5% of GDP 12.3 0.6 0.3 10.0 3.8 2.6 0.2 1.8 0.5 2.0UNITED KINGDOM 335.2 31.4 9.1 237.7 70.2 77.9 10.8 48.9 8.5 32.1 537.8 2247.5% of total imports 89.7 5.8 1.7 44.2 13.1 14.5 2.0 9.1 1.6 6.0% of GDP 14.9 1.4 0.4 10.6 3.1 3.5 0.5 2.2 0.4 1.4NETHERLANDS 291.8 35.0 14.2 177.2 79.4 97.4 11.3 64.8 19.9 21.3 513.1 783.3% of total imports 51.4 6.8 2.8 34.5 15.5 19.0 2.2 12.6 3.9 4.2% of GDP 37.3 4.5 1.8 22.6 10.1 12.4 1.4 8.3 2.5 2.7SPAIN 185.2 9.6 3.6 147.0 39.1 30.8 2.5 21.0 12.7 16.2 311.0 1410.0% of total imports 76.8 3.1 1.2 47.3 12.6 9.9 0.8 6.8 4.1 5.2% of GDP 13.1 0.7 0.3 10.4 2.8 2.2 0.2 1.5 0.9 1.2AUSTRIA 107.4 2.5 1.2 98.1 69.1 7.3 1.5 4.4 0.5 20.6 157.2 376.8% of total imports 72.4 1.6 0.8 62.4 44.0 4.7 1.0 2.8 0.3 13.1% of GDP 28.5 0.7 0.3 26.0 18.3 1.9 0.4 1.2 0.1 5.5BELGIUM 299.1 20.7 8.4 231.6 63.5 30.2 6.4 15.7 6.9 14.4 387.8 465.7% of total imports 74.2 5.3 2.2 59.7 16.4 7.8 1.7 4.1 1.8 3.7% of GDP 64.2 4.5 1.8 49.7 13.6 6.5 1.4 3.4 1.5 3.1DENMARK 61.8 2.4 0.3 37.4 17.4 8.0 0.5 5.6 1.4 5.5 82.8 310.8% of total imports 65.0 2.9 0.4 45.2 21.1 9.6 0.6 6.8 1.6 6.6% of GDP 19.9 0.8 0.1 12.0 5.6 2.6 0.2 1.8 0.4 1.8FINLAND 43.0 1.4 0.5 24.9 10.0 4.6 0.5 3.0 0.9 2.8 68.0 239.2% of total imports 62.8 2.0 0.7 36.6 14.7 6.7 0.7 4.4 1.4 4.1% of GDP 18.0 0.6 0.2 10.4 4.2 1.9 0.2 1.3 0.4 1.2GREECE 30.7 1.3 0.7 25.2 6.6 7.4 2.5 3.8 1.2 4.7 62.5 305.4% of total imports 145.5 2.1 1.2 40.3 10.6 11.9 4.0 6.1 1.9 7.5% of GDP 10.0 0.4 0.2 8.2 2.2 2.4 0.8 1.2 0.4 1.5IRELAND 49.3 8.2 0.8 14.2 4.6 4.4 1.0 2.5 0.6 1.3 59.8 204.3% of total imports 43.9 13.8 1.4 23.8 7.6 7.4 1.7 4.1 1.0 2.1% of GDP 24.2 4.0 0.4 7.0 2.2 2.2 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.6PORTUGAL 58.0 1.0 0.5 51.5 10.4 3.4 0.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 75.4 229.3% of total imports 119.8 1.3 0.6 68.3 13.8 4.5 0.5 2.8 2.8 2.7% of GDP 25.3 0.4 0.2 22.4 4.6 1.5 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9SWEDEN 107.7 4.5 1.8 67.3 26.9 12.1 2.7 7.2 1.1 9.7 146.9 455.8% of total imports 71.8 3.1 1.3 45.8 18.3 8.2 1.8 4.9 0.8 6.6% of GDP 23.6 1.0 0.4 14.8 5.9 2.6 0.6 1.6 0.2 2.1SWITZERLAND 145.5 9.4 3.5 121.9 56.2 11.0 2.8 5.8 1.8 5.9 175.8 523.8% of total imports 74.6 5.3 2.0 69.3 32.0 6.3 1.6 3.3 1.0 3.4% of GDP 27.8 1.8 0.7 23.3 10.7 2.1 0.5 1.1 0.3 1.1ICELAND 2.7 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.9 12.6% of total imports 59.2 8.1 2.3 30.2 7.5 8.6 0.8 6.0 9.4 3.0% of GDP 21.6 2.5 0.7 9.4 2.3 2.7 0.2 1.9 2.9 0.9NORWAY 52.3 4.2 1.7 23.4 9.5 10.8 3.0 6.6 1.5 4.4 76.9 414.5% of total imports 39.7 5.4 2.2 30.5 12.4 14.1 3.9 8.5 2.0 5.7% of GDP 12.6 1.0 0.4 5.7 2.3 2.6 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.1CANADA 284.5 216.8 14.3 32.5 12.0 65.2 8.2 47.4 31.9 3.1 430.3 1574.1% of total imports 73.5 50.4 3.3 7.6 2.8 15.1 1.9 11.0 7.4 0.7% of GDP 18.1 13.8 0.9 2.1 0.8 4.1 0.5 3.0 2.0 0.2AUSTRALIA 88.9 23.6 18.4 28.3 10.6 87.1 19.2 39.8 3.5 1.8 214.2 1235.5% of total imports 42.0 11.0 8.6 13.2 5.0 40.7 8.9 18.6 1.6 0.8% of GDP 7.2 1.9 1.5 2.3 0.9 7.1 1.6 3.2 0.3 0.1NEW ZEALAND 15.9 3.2 2.3 3.3 1.3 10.2 2.4 4.9 0.4 0.2 30.7 140.4% of total imports 50.4 10.5 7.4 10.6 4.1 33.1 7.7 16.0 1.2 0.7% of GDP 11.3 2.3 1.6 2.3 0.9 7.2 1.7 3.5 0.3 0.1* Excluding Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Korea, Slovakia, and Turkey

IMPORTS FROM (US$ bn, 2009)





AMERICA


TOTAL IMPORTS (US$bn)


Origin EconomyNON JAPAN ASIA 1288.5 292.6 455.8 311.1 138.6 439.7 467.9 149.1 22.3 3755.7 10753.9% of total imports 34.3 7.8 12.1 8.3 3.7 11.7 12.5 4.0 0.6% of GDP 12.0 2.7 4.2 2.9 1.3 4.1 4.4 1.4 0.2ASEAN-4 483.9 127.1 184.6 101.1 36.8 637.3 342.4 57.3 5.6 1419.7 1885.4% of total imports 34.1 9.0 13.0 7.1 2.6 44.9 24.1 4.0 0.4% of GDP 25.7 6.7 9.8 5.4 2.0 33.8 18.2 3.0 0.3CHINA 518.7 102.0 176.3 139.1 74.4 313.5 172.1 73.2 11.7 1393.9 5878.3% of total imports 37.2 7.3 12.6 10.0 5.3 22.5 12.3 5.2 0.8% of GDP 8.8 1.7 3.0 2.4 1.3 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.2HONG KONG 98.2 23.3 39.7 24.3 7.4 282.6 47.8 197.1 3.1 1.0 433.5 225.0% of total imports 22.6 5.4 9.2 5.6 1.7 65.2 11.0 45.5 0.7 0.2% of GDP 43.6 10.4 17.6 10.8 3.3 125.6 21.2 87.6 1.4 0.4INDONESIA 42.1 9.4 17.0 7.6 3.0 70.3 29.8 20.4 3.3 0.6 135.7 706.7% of total imports 31.0 6.9 12.5 5.6 2.2 51.8 22.0 15.1 2.4 0.5% of GDP 6.0 1.3 2.4 1.1 0.4 10.0 4.2 2.9 0.5 0.1KOREA 173.6 42.7 68.5 29.8 12.2 134.2 23.4 75.7 12.0 1.8 424.1 1007.1% of total imports 40.9 10.1 16.2 7.0 2.9 31.6 5.5 17.8 2.8 0.4% of GDP 17.2 4.2 6.8 3.0 1.2 13.3 2.3 7.5 1.2 0.2MALAYSIA 54.7 15.4 19.4 12.3 5.9 109.6 57.0 26.2 2.8 0.6 189.5 238.0% of total imports 28.9 8.1 10.2 6.5 3.1 57.9 30.1 13.8 1.5 0.3% of GDP 23.0 6.5 8.2 5.1 2.5 46.1 24.0 11.0 1.2 0.3PHILIPPINES 25.3 7.5 10.7 4.0 1.5 35.0 13.5 10.3 1.1 0.3 76.0 188.7% of total imports 33.3 9.9 14.1 5.3 1.9 46.0 17.8 13.6 1.5 0.4% of GDP 13.4 4.0 5.7 2.1 0.8 18.5 7.2 5.5 0.6 0.2SINGAPORE 102.5 35.6 24.5 28.8 8.9 136.5 21.0 33.7 3.0 2.1 310.9 222.7% of total imports 33.0 11.5 7.9 9.3 2.9 43.9 6.7 10.8 1.0 0.7% of GDP 46.0 16.0 11.0 12.9 4.0 61.3 9.4 15.1 1.3 0.9TAIWAN 109.6 25.4 51.9 18.3 8.3 84.0 25.3 35.9 39.2 0.7 251.2 430.6% of total imports 43.6 10.1 20.7 7.3 3.3 33.4 10.1 14.3 15.6 0.3% of GDP 25.5 5.9 12.1 4.2 1.9 19.5 5.9 8.3 9.1 0.2THAILAND 70.4 10.9 38.3 10.7 4.7 62.2 16.4 24.5 3.2 0.7 184.6 318.9% of total imports 38.1 5.9 20.8 5.8 2.5 33.7 8.9 13.3 1.7 0.4% of GDP 22.1 3.4 12.0 3.3 1.5 19.5 5.1 7.7 1.0 0.2INDIA 93.5 20.4 9.6 36.3 12.4 99.3 33.3 44.0 8.2 2.7 356.3 1538.0% of total imports 26.2 5.7 2.7 10.2 3.5 27.9 9.3 12.4 2.3 0.8% of GDP 6.1 1.3 0.6 2.4 0.8 6.5 2.2 2.9 0.5 0.2LATIN AMERICA 370.3 239.8 22.9 81.5 30.0 125.7 34.8 66.7 4.5 659.9 3993.7% of total imports 56.1 36.3 3.5 12.4 4.6 19.1 5.3 10.1 0.7% of GDP 9.3 6.0 0.6 2.0 0.8 3.1 0.9 1.7 0.1ARGENTINA 19.4 8.2 0.9 8.7 2.9 10.0 1.4 6.7 23.6 0.4 59.1 370.3% of total imports 32.8 13.8 1.6 14.8 5.0 16.9 2.3 11.4 39.9 0.7% of GDP 5.2 2.2 0.3 2.4 0.8 2.7 0.4 1.8 6.4 0.1BRAZIL 84.1 30.0 7.7 35.2 13.8 49.8 11.0 28.1 27.6 2.4 199.8 2090.3% of total imports 42.1 15.0 3.8 17.6 6.9 24.9 5.5 14.1 13.8 1.2% of GDP 4.0 1.4 0.4 1.7 0.7 2.4 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.1CHILE 22.4 10.2 3.0 6.5 2.4 13.1 3.7 8.2 14.4 0.3 60.3 203.3% of total imports 37.1 17.0 5.0 10.8 4.0 21.7 6.2 13.6 23.9 0.4% of GDP 11.0 5.0 1.5 3.2 1.2 6.5 1.8 4.0 7.1 0.1MEXICO 225.6 179.7 10.5 26.3 9.9 48.1 18.5 19.7 9.3 1.2 296.5 1039.1% of total imports 76.1 60.6 3.6 8.9 3.4 16.2 6.2 6.6 3.1 0.4% of GDP 21.7 17.3 1.0 2.5 1.0 4.6 1.8 1.9 0.9 0.1VENEZUELA 18.7 11.7 0.7 4.7 0.9 4.7 0.2 4.0 15.6 0.2 44.1 290.7% of total imports 42.4 26.6 1.5 10.7 2.1 10.6 0.5 9.1 35.2 0.5% of GDP 6.4 4.0 0.2 1.6 0.3 1.6 0.1 1.4 5.4 0.1CENTRAL EUROPE 271.5 17.6 8.2 254.7 125.5 71.7 14.8 44.3 5.0 565.6 1531.5% of total imports 48.0 3.1 1.4 45.0 22.2 12.7 2.6 7.8 0.9% of GDP 17.7 1.2 0.5 16.6 8.2 4.7 1.0 2.9 0.3CZECH REPUBLIC 69.6 1.6 1.7 66.9 37.1 14.0 2.9 9.1 0.3 21.1 125.4 192.2% of total imports 55.5 1.3 1.4 53.3 29.6 11.1 2.3 7.2 0.2 16.8% of GDP 36.2 0.9 0.9 34.8 19.3 7.3 1.5 4.7 0.1 11.0HUNGARY 45.8 1.3 1.9 43.0 22.4 13.2 3.1 8.7 0.4 13.1 88.1 129.0% of total imports 52.0 1.5 2.2 48.8 25.4 15.0 3.5 9.9 0.5 14.9% of GDP 35.5 1.0 1.5 33.4 17.4 10.2 2.4 6.7 0.3 10.2POLAND 97.1 2.3 1.3 92.1 48.4 14.9 3.7 9.3 1.2 17.3 166.5 468.5% of total imports 58.3 1.4 0.8 55.3 29.1 9.0 2.3 5.6 0.7 10.4% of GDP 20.7 0.5 0.3 19.7 10.3 3.2 0.8 2.0 0.3 3.7TURKEY 59.0 12.3 3.3 52.7 17.5 29.7 5.1 17.2 3.0 11.6 185.5 741.9% of total imports 31.8 6.6 1.8 28.4 9.5 16.0 2.7 9.3 1.6 6.3% of GDP 7.9 1.7 0.4 7.1 2.4 4.0 0.7 2.3 0.4 1.6* Excluding Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Korea, Slovakia, and Turkey

IMPORTS FROM (US$ bn, 2009)



Asia (cont'd) Global Markets Research Jan Hatzius~ 1(212)902-0394 Japan Portfolio Strategy Research Dominic Wilson~ 1(212)902-5924Dominic Wilson~ 1(212)902-5924 Hiromi Suzuki* 81(3)6437-9955 Francesco Garzarelli~ 44(20)7774-5078

Tsumugi Akiba* 81(3)6437-9966Kazunori Tatebe# 81(3)6437-9898 Global Macro Research

Andrew Tilton~ 1(212)357-2619 Kamakshya Trivedi* 44(20)7051-4005Zach Pandl* 1(212)902-3393 Pan-Asia Strategy Derivatives Research Jose Ursua# 1(212)855-9705Alec Phillips* 1(202)637-3746 Sam Gellman* 852-2978-1631 Stacy Carlson^ 1(212)855-0684Jari Stehn* 1(212)357-6224 Sunil Koul# 852-2978-0924Shuyan Wu^ 1(212)902-3053 Jason Lui# 852-2978-6613 Global Credit Strategy Research

Charles Himmelberg~ 1(917)343-3218Latin America Economics Research Bangalore Service Desk Kenneth Ho* 852-2978-7468Paulo Leme~ 1(305)755-1038 Ram Dharmaraj# 1(212)934-9678 Lotfi Karoui* 1(917)343-1548Alberto Ramos~ 1(212)357-5768 Saikat Banerjee 1(212)934-1928 Annie Chu# 1(212)357-5522Eduardo Cavallo* 1(212)357-5772 Ketaki Garg 1(212)934-6319 Anthony Ip# 852()2978-2676Petya Kehayova^ 1(212)934-0199 Vishal Vaibhaw 1(212)934-6319

FX ResearchUS Portfolio Strategy Research Australia & New Zealand Economics Research Thomas Stolper~ 44(20)7774-5183David Kostin~ 1(212)902-6781 Tim Toohey~ 613-9679-1079 Robin Brooks* 1(212)357-8763Stuart Kaiser* 1(212)357-6308 Philip Borkin* 649-362-7306 Themistoklis Fiotakis* 44(20)7552-2901Amanda Sneider* 1(212)357-9860 Andrew Boak# 612-9321-8576 Fiona Lake* 852-2978-6088Ben Snider^ 1(212)357-1744 David Colosimo# 613-9679-1085Yi Zhang^ 1(212)357-6003 Fixed Income Research

Europe, Middle East and Africa Constantin Burgi^ 44(20)7051-4009Asia Peter Oppenheimer~ 44(20)7552-5782Kathy Matsui~ 81(3)6437-9950 Macro Equity Research

European Economics Research Noah Weisberger~ 1(212)357-6261Asia-Pacific Economics Research Ahmet Akarli~ 44(20)7051-1875 Alexander Kazan* 1(917)343-4543Michael Buchanan~ 852-2978-1802 Kevin Daly~ 44(20)7774-5908 Aleksandar Timcenko* 1(212)357-7628Goohoon Kwon~ 82(2)3788-1775 Clemens Grafe~ 7(495)645-4198Enoch Fung* 852-2978-0784 Dirk Schumacher~ 49(69)7532-1210 Commodities Research Tushar Poddar* 91(22)6616-9042 Andrew Benito* 44(20)7051-4004 Jeffrey Currie~ 44(20)7774-6112Yu Song* 86(10)6627-3111 Magdalena Polan* 44(20)7552-5244Mark Tan* 65()6889-2472 Natacha Valla* 33(1)4212-1343 EnergyShirla Sum# 852-2978-6634 Lasse Holboell Nielsen# 44(20)7774-5205 Samantha Dart* 44(20)7552-9350Professor Song Guoqing 86(10)6627-3021 Marek Raczko# 44(20)7552-0159 Stefan Wieler# 1(212)357-7486Yin Zhang^ 86(10)6627-3112 Anna Zadornova# 44(20)7774-1163 Johan Spetz 44(20)7552-5946

Antoine Demongeot^ 44(20)7774-1169Japan Economics Research Michael Hinds^ 44(20)7774-1137 Non-EnergyNaohiko Baba~ 81(3)6437-9960 Adrian Paul^ 44(20)7552-5748 Damien Courvalin* 1(212)902-3307Chiwoong Lee* 81(3)6437-9984Yuriko Tanaka* 81(3)6437-9964 European Portfolio Strategy Research Commodity Strategy

Sharon Bell* 44(20)7552-1341 Allison Nathan~ 1(212)357-7504Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy Research Gerald Moser* 44(20)7774-5725 David Greely~ 1(212)902-2850Timothy Moe~ 852-2978-1328 Christian Mueller-Glissmann* 44(20)7774-1714Christopher Eoyang~ 81(3)6437-9888 Anders Nielsen* 44(20)7552-3000 AdministrationHelen Zhu~ 852-2978-0048 Matthieu Walterspiler# 44(20)7552-3403 Linda Britten* 44(20)7774-1165Kinger Lau* 852-2978-1224 Loretta Sunnucks* 44(20)7774-3223Caesar Maasry* 852-2978-7213Hanfeng Wang* 86(10)6627-3318Ben Bei# 852-2978-1220Jeen Kim# 82(2)3788-1726Richard Tang# 852-2978-0722Chenjie Liu^ 86(10)6627-3324

~MD *VP/ED #Associate ^Research Assistant/AnalystEmail: f [email protected]

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Americas

US Economics Research

Goldman Sachs Global Macro and Markets Research Kamakshya Trivedi, Global Markets Economist [email protected] +44 (0)20 7051 4005 Jose Ursua, Associate Economist [email protected] +1 212 855 9705 Constantin Burgi, Research Assistant [email protected] +44 (0)20 7051 4009 Stacy Carlson, Research Assistant [email protected] + 1 212 855 0684

Each country economist has certified as follows: I, name of economist, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm's business or client relationships. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs,and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs &Co. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman Sachs &Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman Sachs & Co. oHG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt fur Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany. General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. SIPC: Goldman, Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (http://www.sipc.org). Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at http://www.theocc.com/publications/risks/riskchap1.jsp. Transactions cost may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to www.360.gs.com. Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. © Copyright 2011, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The material was prepared for the clients of Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia and Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. In preparing this material, Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia and Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (‘financial circumstances’) of any particular person. Accordingly, before acting on any advice contained in this material, you should assess whether the advice is appropriate in light of your own financial circumstances or contact your Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia or Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand adviser. If you were referred to Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia or Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand by an investment adviser, that adviser may receive a financial benefit from Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia or Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand for dealing in securities on your behalf. Your Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia or Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand adviser will give you precise details of any benefit payable to the investment adviser who referred you to Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia or Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand. Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty Ltd and Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand Limited and their affiliates distributing this material and each of their respective directors, officers and agents (“Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Group”) believe that the information contained in this material is correct and that any estimates, opinions, conclusions or recommendations contained in this material are reasonably held or made as at the time of compilation. However, no warranty is made as to the accuracy or reliability of any estimates, opinions, conclusions, recommendations (which may change without notice) or other information contained in this materialstock and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Group disclaims all liability and responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage which may be suffered by any recipient through relying on anything contained in or omitted from this material.This material is for the intended recipient only and is provided on the condition that you keep it confidential and do not copy or circulate it in whole or in part.

global economics analyst

Documents