global economic trends -...
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Page 1© 2009 Boston Strategies International, Inc.10/25/2009
Longboat Key, FloridaOctober 12, 2009
Global Economic Trends
This report has been prepared by Boston Strategies International at the request of CLIENT for the purpose of establishing its operating strategies. It may not be appropriate for other purposes or audiences. This report contains forward-looking statements andprojections with respect to anticipated future performance of CLIENT, suppliers, customers, and/or general or specific economic conditions and factors that are based on Boston Strategies International’s analysis of market trends and external data. Forward-lookingstatements and projections are not guarantees of future performance and involve significant business, economic and competitive risks, contingencies and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Accordingly, these projections and forward-looking statements maynot be realized and actual results may vary up or down. This report may not be reproduced or distributed without express written approval from Boston Strategies International.
www.bostonstrategies.com(1) 781-250-8150
EXCERPT
Severity of the Global Financial CrisisEXCERPT
Page 2© 2009 Boston Strategies International, Inc.10/29/2009
Source: IMF
Global Economic OutlookEXCERPT
Macroeconomic ScenariosImpact on
Scenario Likelihoodp
Corporate Profits
D R i Aft h kDeep Recessionary Aftershock
Run on Banks as Defaults Mount
Hyper-Inflation or Hyper-Deflation
Currency Crisis
Consumer Malaise Impedes Trade Recovery
Major Countries Go Bankrupt
Page 3© 2009 Boston Strategies International, Inc.10/29/2009
Source: Boston Strategies International adaptation of scenarios considered by The Economist Intelligence Unit
More Good News Than BadEXCERPT
Growth and Trade Trends
10
15
5
Americas
5
0
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Percent Annual Growth
Europe
World Trade
‐10
‐5
Source: Boston Strategies International adaptation and analysis of data from The Economist Intelligence Unit and other sources.
‐15
Page 4© 2009 Boston Strategies International, Inc.10/29/2009
g p y g
The Asian RecoveryEXCERPT
Sales of Health, Personal Care, Pharmaceutical and Similar Products3 5
2 5
3.0
3.5
1 5
2.0
2.5
Market Size (2002=1)
0 5
1.0
1.5(2002 1)Asia
Other
0.0
0.5
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Source: Boston Strategies International analysis of data from IHS Global Insight and other sources
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Page 5© 2009 Boston Strategies International, Inc.10/29/2009
Source: Boston Strategies International analysis of data from IHS Global Insight and other sources.
Supply Chain Costs in 2010EXCERPT
P j t d ChSupply Chain Cost Components
Type of CostProjected Change
October 2009-June 2010Sourcing costs 1 0%Sourcing costs 1.0%Transportation 0.9%Warehouse labor 1 7%Warehouse labor 1.7%Inventory carrying 0.3%Ob l 0 3%Obsolescence 0.3%Production 0.9%Net Impact 5 0%Net Impact 5.0%Source: Boston Strategies International
Page 6© 2009 Boston Strategies International, Inc.10/29/2009
Boston Strategies InternationalDavid Jacoby: [email protected]
Tel: (1) (781) 250-8150
Boston Strategies International is a global management consulting firm that helps market leaders achieve competitive advantage through supply chain management:
• Supply Chain Consulting• Cost and Pricing Benchmarks• Market Data
Boston, MA, USA445 Washington St
Wellesley MA 02482
Dubai, UAEExecutive Suite
P O Box 121601
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Page 7© 2009 Boston Strategies International, Inc.10/29/2009
Wellesley, MA 02482 USA
P.O. Box 121601Sharjah, United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.)
88 Shi Ji AvenueShanghai 200120, China