global distribution of h5n1 outbreaks bird migrationunderstand bird migration. 2.satellite remote...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Xiangming XiaoXiangming Xiao11
Marius GilbertMarius Gilbert22, Jan Slingenbergh, Jan Slingenbergh33, Fumin Lei, Fumin Lei44
11Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and SpaceInstitute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space
University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USAUniversity of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA
http://http://remotesensing.unh.eduremotesensing.unh.edu
22Free University of Brussels, BelgiumFree University of Brussels, Belgium33Animal Health Division, FAO, ItalyAnimal Health Division, FAO, Italy
44Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ChinaInstitute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
May 30May 30--31, 2006, Rome, Italy31, 2006, Rome, Italy
FAO/OIE International Scientific Conference on Avian Influenza aFAO/OIE International Scientific Conference on Avian Influenza and nd Wild BirdsWild Birds
Remote Sensing, Ecological Variables and
Bird Migration
From Declan Butler
Global distribution of H5N1 outbreaks
2003-2006
45 countries
cumulative number of
confirmed human cases (as 6/4/2006)
192 cases/109 deaths
Bird migration
- important for understanding the role of wild waterbirds in the spread of H5N1 virus
- a long history of in-situ field observations, but limited geospatial databases at continental to global scales
A changing Planet Earth poses challenge for bird migration
- land use change
- loss of wetlands
- agricultural expansion and intensification
- post-harvest management
- water use change (e.g., fish and shrimp ponds, dams)
- climate change
Bird migration and climate change
Qinghai - Tibet plateau
the roof-of-the-world, 2.5 million km2
breeding sites for wild birds
temperature rise by ~0.9oC since 1980s
Increase in thawing of permafrost
Decrease in glacier area by 7% per year
���� increase in surface water bodies
Early onset of Indian summer monsoon
Climate variation/change calls for re-analysis of bird migration and climate data.
2
TRMM11/27/97
Terra12/18/99
Landsat 74/15/99
Aqua5/4/02
MODIS
Red/Green/Blue
(band 1-4-3) 5/25-
6/1, 2002
Tonle Sap, Mekong
Delta (Cambodia /
Viet Nam)
500-m spatial
resolution
Satellite remote sensing provides routine observations for quantifying ecological variables relevant to bird migration
Bird migration and satellite remote sensing
1. Phenology of waterbirds migration
timing of migration
Ecological variables that trigger migration
2. Land surface phenology and ecosystems
Habitats along migratory flyway
breeding, stop-over, moulting and wintering sites
3. Satellite remote sensing track ecological variables and habitats for migratory birds
Ecological variables that trigger bird migration in autumn (seasonal migration)
Temperature (e.g., frost)
Snow, Ice
Wind
Phenology of waterbirds migration
Lake Baykal (one MODIS pixel) (Terra/MODIS)
Year 2004 (8-day interval)
1/1/04 3/1/04 5/1/04 7/1/04 9/1/04 11/1/04 1/1/05
Wate
r surf
ace
te
mp
era
ture
(oC
)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
LSTday
LSTnight
Traveling wave of the first frost in July – Dec. 2005 (nighttime LST from MODIS/Aqua
Land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS sensor
(1-km resolution)
Ecological variables that trigger bird migration in spring (seasonal migration)
Temperature (e.g., frost)
Snow and Ice (melting)
Wind
Phenology of waterbirds migration
Lake Baykal (one MODIS pixel) (Terra/MODIS)
Year 2004 (8-day interval)
1/1/04 3/1/04 5/1/04 7/1/04 9/1/04 11/1/04 1/1/05
Wate
r surf
ace
te
mp
era
ture
(oC
)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
LSTday
LSTnight
Traveling wave of the last frost in Jan - June 2005 (nighttime LST from MODIS/Aqua)
Land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS
(1-km resolution)
3
Ecological variables that affect bird migration in autumn and spring (seasonal migration)
- onset of wet & dry seasons
Phenology of waterfowl migration
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
5/2003
11/2003
Monthly rainfall at 0.5o
grid
Land surface phenology and ecosystems
In a human-dominated Earth, changes in land use and water use have substantially altered ecosystems both spatially and temporally, which may affect migratory flyway (breeding, stop-over, moulting and wintering sites). Wild waterbirds may use croplands as part of their habitats.
- Ecosystems along the “migration flyway”
- Land surface phenology- Rural landscape where wild birds interact and
mix with domestic poultry
Where do wild waterbirds fly to and stay?
Satellite mapping
H5N1 outbreaks
Free-range duck Paddy rice field
migratory waterbirds
one MODIS pixel in Bangkok area
Month in 2004
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Veg
eta
tio
n I
ndic
es
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
NDVI
LSWI
EVI
Starting date Starting date
Southeast Asia in 2004
wet season ���� dry season
MODIS-based land surface phenology H5N1 outbreaks in Thailand
4
HPAI cases
Free-range ducks
Cropping intensity
Paddy rice
Spatial correlations among HPAI cases,
free-ranging ducks and paddy rice in
Thailand in 2004-2005.
H5N1 outbreaks
Free-range ducks
H5N1 outbreaks in Thailand and Vietnam were concentrated in those area with multiple cropping systems
MODIS-based land surface phenology
Double cropping pixels in Mekong area
Year 2004 (8-day interval)
1/1/04 3/1/04 5/1/04 7/1/04 9/1/04 11/1/04
Cro
pla
nd a
rea
(km
2)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Planting date
Harvesting date
Natural
wetlandsFish
ponds
Paddy rice
fields
domestic
poultry
Human
population
Migratory
waterbirds
Free-range
ducks/geeseAIVAIV
AIV
Weather / Climate Satellite remote sensing
AIV
AIV
Role of satellite remote sensing Satellite-based geospatial datasets
1. Agricultural land use
cropping intensity, calendar & irrigation
2. Wetlands
natural wetlands, water bodies,
3. Climate
water & land surface temperature, snow, ice,
wind, drought, rainfall
-�migration timing, survival rates of HPAIV
5
Satellite observatories
• MODIS, Landsat, PALSAR, Cloudsat, TRMM
International
FAO
Decision Support Tools
• Risk assessment
• Decision-support
System
• Scenario tools
National
Decision Support Tools
HPAI surveillanceOutbreak location & time
Control area
In-situ observatories
• cropping intensity & crop calendar• wetlands, rainfall• water bodies, irrigation,• land surface temperature, snow, ice
• land primary production
• bird surveillance • waterfowl migration time & flyway • poultry and livestock
• agricultural statistical data
Geospatial analysis
Spatially-explicit
epidemiological
model
Ecology of HPAI2003-2006
Patterns, dynamics, variables
Nowcast & Early Warning
2006-likely “hot-spots” & “hot-times”
Epidemic potentialDistribution of persistence
Framework of observations, analysis and modeling
Summary
1.Geospatial data of climate, agro-ecosystems,
natural wetlands are needed in order to better
understand bird migration.
2.Satellite remote sensing can provide such geospatial datasets in timely mode.
3. Integrating the geospatial databases with bird
migration data (in-situ, satellite-tracking) will
improve geospatial analysis of bird migration, which would help understand the role of migratory birds in the spread of HPAI virus, and identify likely “hot spots” and “hot times” for risk assessment and targeted surveillance.
Thank you!Thank you!
Lake
Qinghai