Global Climate ChangePotential Impact on Plant Diseases

Waldir Cintra de Jesus Junior (UFES)Francisco Xavier Ribeiro do Vale (UFV)

Global Climate Change & IPM

Land Use & Land Cover

Climate Change

Climate Volatility

Bio-geochemistry

CO2

Globalization, Trade &

Transport

Alien species & GMOs

ICTBiotechnology

Human

Health

Disease Triangle

Comparative Plant Disease Comparative Plant Disease EpidemiologyEpidemiology

Early blight (tomato)Early blight (tomato)

Angular and rust leaf Angular and rust leaf

spot (Common bean)spot (Common bean)

Soybean rustSoybean rust

Coffee leaf rustCoffee leaf rust

(Coelho et al., 2001)

(Coelho et al., 2001)

ENSAIO 1 ENSAIO 2

02468

1012141618202224

14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 105 112 119 126

Dias após o transplantio

Dura

ção m

édia

(h/s

em

ana) 20>T<25C T>25 T<20C

02468

1012141618

Dura

ção m

édia

(h/s

em

ana)

Molhamento Foliar UR>90%

B

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Áre

a folia

r le

sio

nada (

%)

SCT SCVA

(Paul et al., 2001)

Climate changeClimate change

What can plant pathologists What can plant pathologists offer?offer?

Accelerated plant

development Less water

Lower water use efficiency

Thermal stress

(Chakraborty, 2000)

Colletotrichum gloeosporioides causing anthracnose of Stylosanthes scabra

Fig. Free-air enrichment (FACE) apparatus using pure CO2 injection in the field. Rice plants were exposed in four paddies to elevated CO2 by growing them within 12-m-diameter rings which sprayed pure CO2 toward the center from peripheral emission tubes located 50 cm above the canopy. In another four paddies, plants were grown under ambient CO2 conditions with no ring structures in place. (Kobayashi et al., 2006)

Effects of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on the Infection of Rice Sheath Blight

(Kobayashi et al., 2006)

Atual 2080 – A2 2080 – B22050 – A2 200 – B2

Janeiro

Julho

Janeiro

Julho

Medium temperature (ºC) for the actual climate and 2080, scenario A2 and B2, obtained from the average of 6 models (CCSR-NIES, CGCM, CSIRO, ECHAM, GFDL and HADCM3).

(Vale et al., 2000)

2050 – A2Atual

January

July

2050 – A2 2050 – B2

Incubation period of coffee leaf rust (days) (Rayner´s model), to actual and 2050 (scenario A2 and B2)

(Hamada et al., 2005)

One Global Change ImpactsOne Global Change Impacts Toolkit for Pests Toolkit for Pests

Site-Manager

Organise site-specific

information

Climate-matching Mechanistic model

Novel climatesTaxon-based risk assessments

Modular mechanistic modelling

Quantify adaptation options

Integrate multiple taxa

The only tool that meets these needs

Designed by biologists for biologists

(Sutherst, 2006)

Total Cost = $28.5m p.a. Total Cost = $21m

Change in EI

EI Value

+1.0°C+2.0°C +2.0°C

Current

Regional Vulnerability

+1.0°C

Vulnerability of Australian Horticulture to Pests Vulnerability of Australian Horticulture to Pests under Climate Changeunder Climate Change

Current

Queensland Fruit Fly Light Brown Apple Moth

(Sutherst, 2006)

(Vale, 1992)

Concluding remarks

• The focus needs to shift from paddock-based assessment

on specific diseases to a more ecologically relevant spatial

and temporal unit to consider climate with other associated

changes in land use and vegetation cover, among other.