global climate change - ecology and evolutionary...
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Lecture 21, 02 November 2004Global Climate Change
Conservation BiologyECOL 406R/506R
University of ArizonaFall 2004
Kevin BonineKathy Gerst
Brief Quiz:
1. One of the articles (Hayhoe et al. 2004) assigned for today focused on one state in the US. What state?
2. In the above-referenced article, how many climate models were analyzed? How many different future CO2 levels?
3. The other article (Walther et al. 2002) for today was generally about what?
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1. Global Climate Change-Hayhoe et al. 2004-Walther et al. 2002
-Announcements-VOTE!-Landscape Connectivity Wed 1215
-Thank YousC. ElenesAquatic Conservation Presentations
What happens to the solar radiation that reaches the earth?
Miller, 2003
-1 billionth solar output
-visible and ultraviolet (UV)
-greenhouse gases(water vapor, CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone)
-autotrophs/primary productivty
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Greenhouse Effect- earth’s surface absorbs or reflects- reflected either into space or absorbed by gases- greenhouse gases heat up and emit infrared radiation
Miller, 2003
Global Warming
Miller, 2003
[CO2] higher than in past 420,000 years
20th Century hottest in last 10
Temperature has increased 0.5 C since 1950
Since 1861, 9 of the 10 warmest years occurred since 1990
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Selected Greenhouse Gases
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)– Source: Fossil fuel burning, deforestation
Anthropogenic increase: 30%Average atmospheric residence time: 500 years
Methane (CH4)– Source: Rice cultivation, cattle & sheep ranching, decay
from landfills, mining Anthropogenic increase: 145%Average atmospheric residence time: 7-10 years
Nitrous oxide (N2O)– Source: Industry and agriculture (fertilizers)
Anthropogenic increase: 15%Average atmospheric residence time: 140-190 years
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/gsfc/service/gallery/fact_sheets/earthsci/green.htm
atmospheric CO2 up 25% since 1800
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Miller, 2003
Beech Tree Range
- poles will heat up relatively faster
For each 1 degree C change:- climate belts will shift toward the poles by 100-150 km
AZDStar 25 Jan 2004
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Walther et al. 2002Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change
Phenologytimingfrost-free daysvariability
Range Shifts1. temperature2. precipitation-latitude and altitude
Spatial Heterogeneity
Walther et al. 2002, Fig. 1
Degree C per decade
Percent change in precipitation
MORE
Warmer
(Spatial heterogeneity)
Walther et al. 2002, Fig. 1
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Walther et al. 2002Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change
Community Changes-Plant structure
animal community-Bleaching-Antarctic
Ecosystem Changes-Recruitment-Trophic interactions
Synergistic Effects(cod, coral)
Walther et al. 2002, Fig. 3
Switzerland
Hayhoe et al. 2004Emissions and climate change in California
-Two models sensitive (PCM), less sensitive (HadCM3)
-Two CO2 values550ppm, 970ppm
Dismissed by one expert as “another piece of climate alarmism”
(NYTimes 17 Aug 2004)
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Hayhoe et al. 2004Emissions and climate change in California
1. Temperature (increase 1.5 – 9.0 C)
2. Precipitation (mostly decrease)
3. Heat Index (Hot in L.A. = more deaths)
4. Snowpack, Runoff, Water Reserves (trade-off)
5. Agriculture (wine grapes, milk)
The Treasures within… The Treasures within… Unanticipated Uses Unanticipated Uses
of Biological Collections of Biological Collections
Lucinda Lucinda McDadeMcDadeAcademy of Natural Sciences,Academy of Natural Sciences,
PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia
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PH: Fatally flawed storage system installed, late 70sPH: Fatally flawed storage system installed, late 70s
Most of herbarium cabinets went to NYBGMost of herbarium cabinets went to NYBG
Installation complete (<3 Installation complete (<3 mosmos))
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Cones, fruits, etc.Cones, fruits, etc.((PandanaceaePandanaceae))
CryptogamsCryptogams
Why bother?Why bother?
Specimens play major role in making Specimens play major role in making systematics repeatablesystematics repeatable
and thus an empirical scienceand thus an empirical science
True whether True whether floristicsfloristics, ,
revisionaryrevisionary work, work, higher level higher level phylogeneticsphylogenetics
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Also: ecology, population Also: ecology, population biologybiology
Correct identification & Correct identification & vouchering essential part of vouchering essential part of
documenting researchdocumenting research
Why bother?Why bother?
not systematic biologynot systematic biology
not identificationnot identification
not geographic distributionsnot geographic distributions
not conservation biologynot conservation biology
(these all vital…. but anticipated)(these all vital…. but anticipated)
Unanticipated uses Unanticipated uses of Museum Specimensof Museum Specimens
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Unanticipated uses Unanticipated uses of Museum Specimensof Museum Specimens
2. DNA 2. DNA (almost conventional)(almost conventional)
3. Historical Environmental Conditions3. Historical Environmental ConditionsAmino Acid Amino Acid EnantiomersEnantiomers
Leaf Leaf StomatalStomatal DensityDensityCarbon Isotope RatiosCarbon Isotope Ratios
1. 1. PhenologyPhenology
2. DNA 2. DNA (almost conventional)(almost conventional)
1. Phenology
Unanticipated uses Unanticipated uses of Museum Specimensof Museum Specimens
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ZomleferZomlefer, Whitten, , Whitten, Williams & JuddWilliams & Judd
(in progress)(in progress)SchoenocaulonSchoenocaulon((MelanthiaceaeMelanthiaceae))
2. DNA2. DNA
Collected 1876!Collected 1876!
DNA remarkably intactDNA remarkably intact(associated with (associated with xerophyticxerophytic habit?)habit?)
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ZomleferZomlefer, Whitten, , Whitten, Williams & JuddWilliams & Judd
(in progress)(in progress)SchoenocaulonSchoenocaulon((MelanthiaceaeMelanthiaceae))
PH specimenPH specimen
2. DNA 2. DNA (almost conventional)(almost conventional)
1. 1. PhenologyPhenology
(not identification)(not identification)
3. Historical Environmental Conditions3. Historical Environmental ConditionsAmino Acid Amino Acid EnantiomersEnantiomers
Leaf Leaf StomatalStomatal DensityDensityCarbon Isotope RatiosCarbon Isotope Ratios
Unanticipated uses Unanticipated uses of Museum Specimensof Museum Specimens
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3. Historical Environmental Conditions3. Historical Environmental ConditionsLeaf Leaf StomatalStomatal DensityDensity
BeerlingBeerling and and ChalonerChaloner 1993 1993 (Annals of Botany)(Annals of Botany)
Unanticipated uses Unanticipated uses of Museum Specimensof Museum Specimens
StomatesStomates on Surface of Leaveson Surface of Leaves
xx--sectionsection
Leaf surfaceLeaf surface
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Density of Density of StomatesStomateswith atmospheric COwith atmospheric CO22
>3000 years of Olive leaves>3000 years of Olive leaves((OleaOlea europeaeuropea))
1300 BC to present1300 BC to present
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1327 BC pre-332 BC 1818 AD 1978 AD Present
Series1
13271327B.C.B.C.
350350B.C.B.C.
A.D.A.D.18181818
A.D.A.D.19781978 PresentPresent
800800
500500
Stom
ates
/ mm
2
Date
Funeral WreathsFuneral WreathsKing King Tut’sTut’s TombTomb
Herbarium, KewHerbarium, Kew
IndustrialIndustrialRevolutionRevolutionBeerlingBeerling and and ChalonerChaloner 1993 1993
(Annals of Botany)(Annals of Botany)
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Black Guillemots,Black Guillemots,Long term study (1972Long term study (1972--present) present)
George George DivokyDivoky
3. Historical Environmental Conditions3. Historical Environmental ConditionsCarbon Isotope RatiosCarbon Isotope Ratios
Unanticipated uses Unanticipated uses of Museum Specimensof Museum Specimens
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Cooper Island
Divoky’sDivoky’s 25+ year study shows:25+ year study shows:Birds arrive at nesting site two weeks earlier nowBirds arrive at nesting site two weeks earlier now
Laying eggs 10 days earlierLaying eggs 10 days earlier
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Because guillemots feed at edge of Because guillemots feed at edge of pack ice in winterpack ice in winter
Their bodies should reflectTheir bodies should reflectthe location of that pack icethe location of that pack ice
Island snow free for 80+ days Island snow free for 80+ days only beginning in 70sonly beginning in 70s
Results led to examination of causesResults led to examination of causes
***climate change******climate change***
Other ways birds might document climate change?Other ways birds might document climate change?
Specifically:Specifically:More southerly seas more productive More southerly seas more productive
Translates to higher C13:C12 ratioTranslates to higher C13:C12 ratio
Therefore: Therefore: If pack ice (and birds) reduced If pack ice (and birds) reduced
in southerly expansion over timein southerly expansion over time
Detectable in C13:C12 in birdsDetectable in C13:C12 in birds(you are what you eat)(you are what you eat)
C13:C12 should decrease with timeC13:C12 should decrease with time……where to find really old birds?where to find really old birds?
(Not just old but DATED)(Not just old but DATED)
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PH Bird Collection: PH Bird Collection: Second oldest and fifth largest in the USSecond oldest and fifth largest in the US
Collection ManagerCollection ManagerNateNate RiceRice
18921892
δ13C in Black Guillemots1898-2000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050YEAR
-20
-19
-18
-17
-16
-15
δ13 C
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Supports hypothesis that birds feeding Supports hypothesis that birds feeding farther south 100 yrs agofarther south 100 yrs ago
Consistent with / extends Consistent with / extends shorter term documentation shorter term documentation
of reduced extent of winter iceof reduced extent of winter ice
Also likely exacerbated by increase in atmospheric CO2Also likely exacerbated by increase in atmospheric CO2Burning fossil fuel adds C12>C13Burning fossil fuel adds C12>C13
DivokyDivoky continuing project….continuing project….Latest Development: Latest Development:
Pack ice retreating farther to North in summerPack ice retreating farther to North in summer(away from island)(away from island)
3. Other Chemical Constituents3. Other Chemical ConstituentsCarbon Isotope RatiosCarbon Isotope Ratios
PH has essentially all of PH has essentially all of MerriweatherMerriweather Lewis’Lewis’plant specimensplant specimens
Collected 1804Collected 1804--1806, Lewis & Clark Expedition1806, Lewis & Clark Expedition
Remarkable series of events brought them to PHRemarkable series of events brought them to PH(see web site)(see web site)
Unanticipated uses Unanticipated uses of Museum Specimensof Museum Specimens
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PH has essentially all Lewis & Clark plant specimensPH has essentially all Lewis & Clark plant specimens
Mark Teece studied C13:C12 ratios in sample
of L&C plants
Burning fossil fuels Burning fossil fuels adds >>C12adds >>C12
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Obviously no direct measurements of Obviously no direct measurements of atmospheric C13:C12 data atmospheric C13:C12 data
from 200 years agofrom 200 years ago
Teece’sTeece’s results provide modern but results provide modern but prepre--Industrial Revolution baselineIndustrial Revolution baseline
Extend record far back into timeExtend record far back into timeConfirm secular increase in C12Confirm secular increase in C12
Indeed: C13:C12 higher 200 years agoIndeed: C13:C12 higher 200 years ago
The Treasures within… The Treasures within… Unanticipated Uses Unanticipated Uses
of Biological Collections of Biological Collections
Lucinda Lucinda McDadeMcDadeAcademy of Natural Sciences,Academy of Natural Sciences,
PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia