Global Change Research in Belgium

1990-2002Guy P. Brasseur

Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyChair, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP)

Hamburg, Germany

An enigma from the ice…

Antarctic record of temperature, CO2 and CH4

The only place this much carbon can “hide” during the ice ages is in the ocean strong coupling between climate and marine carbon cycle

Methane comes mostly from wetlands strong coupling between climate and terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle

… pointing into an uncertain future…

History shows that physical climate, ocean dynamics, and terrestrial ecosystems are a strongly linked system.

In the last 150 years, we have introduced massive perturbations in some of the forcing variables ---

How will the system respond???

?

The Earth System

The Earth: A Complex Dynamical System

• In nonlinear complex systems, minute actions can cause long term, large scale changes. These changes can be abrupt, devastating, surprising, unmanageable.

The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme

IGBP

IGBP provides scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living

Earth.

Specifically IGBP studies the interactions between biological, physical, and chemical processes, and

human systems. It collaborates with other programmes to provide the knowledge necessary to

respond to environmental change.

IGBP Projects

• Atmosphere: IGAC

• Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC

• Land: GLP

• Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS

• Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS

• Land-Ocean: LOICZ

• Integration: PAGES and AIMES

AIMESGLP

www.ess-p.org

Health

Challenges for the Future

CLIMATE

(Gas-phase)CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS

AEROSOLS GREENHOUSE GASES

Greenhouse Effect

CO2

Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources

CH4, O3,N2O, CFC

HumanEmissions

HumanEmissions

HumanEmissions

Land-useChange, Fires

Oxidants:OH, H2O2

HO2,O3

Fires: sootMineral dust

Biogenic Emissions:CH4,DMS,VOC’sDry deposition: stomatal conductance

N deposition03, UV radiation

The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks

LAND WATER / CITIES

Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat

Heat island effect

Based on P. Cox, 2004

Carbon and Climate

ECHAM5 T63L31

JSBACHMPI-OM

CO2 transport

C transport

THCupwelling

exportproduction

1860 - 2100CO2 emissions2300 GtC

610 GtC

40.000 GtC

HAMOCCinterface

albedo

photosynthesisstomatal conductance

phenology

carbon pools

soil, hydrologicaland energy balance

CO2 acts on radiation,stomata and photosynthesis(with climate feedback)

CO2 acts on stomataand photosynthesis, but not on radiation(no climate feedback)

CO

2

ppm

Atmospheric CO2 concentration (global and annual mean)

year

80ppm

positive feedback negative feedback

Difference in carbon uptake between experiments(with minus without carbon cycle - climate feedback)

[kgC / m2]2100

Feedback

Atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric CO2 Difference

C4MIP (IGBP/AIMES)

Air Quality and Climate Change

Climate Response to Potential

Improvement in Air Quality

• In blue: GHG unchanged after year 2000 (commitment experiment).

• In Red: GHG unchanged and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols removed after year 2000 (sensitivity experiment).

(K)

(%)

Response in Temperature and

Precipitation(30 year average)

• Temperature increase larger than 1K over the continents, larger than 4K in the Arctic.

• Temperature and precipitation changes bear some resemblance with greenhouse warming experiments

• A significant increase in precipitation is found in Eastern Pacific, suggesting an El-Nino like change in the mean climate state.

Global Change and the Social System

Earth SystemModel

Humanperturbation

Humanimpact

Including Social feedbacks

Earth SystemModel

Humanperturbation

Humanimpact

Land useWater use

Energy production and consumptionPopulation growthEconomic growth

Structure of the economyHuman health

Including Social feedbacks

Challenges for the Future

• Earth system science should contribute to the themes that will drive fundamental research in the 21st century:

• Interfaces between the micro- and the macro-worlds

• Interfaces between the living and the dead nature

• Interfaces between nature and culture

Thank You

Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring

and Prediction

AtmosphereModels

OceanModels

Land SurfaceModels

TerrestrialBiosphere

Models

Solid Earth M

odels

Car

bon

Cyc

lean

d B

ioge

oche

mi s

try

Wat

er C

y cle

The Earth SystemUnifying the Models

The Predictive Earth System

Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops Petaflops

Natural HazardPrediction

Hydrology

ProcessModels

Climate / WeatherModels

2000 2010

Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems