global agricultural monitoring to support...
TRANSCRIPT
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
El cambio de clima y la producción agropecuaria
Global Agricultural Monitoring
to support adaptation
Pascal Kosuth,
for the GEOGLAM group and GEO Agriculture Community of Practice
Cereal grain production per hectare
(Source: SAGE, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisc., USA)
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
1. Climate change and its impact on agriculture
1. Measuring; Understanding, Modelling; Forecasting
2. A case study : sanitary risk
2. The GEOGLAM initiative : Global Agricultural Monitoring
2
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
An international effort to understand and forecast climate
change
Forecasted impact of climate change on rainfed cereal potential production
(source FAO, 2008)
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
A two-dimension entity :
- scientific (>3000 scientists designed by govts)
- and political (intergovernmental)
that provides 5 year reports (1990, 1995, 2001,
2007) on our knowledge of climate evolution
under various scenarios related with Green House
Gaz emission
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
1. Measuring Temperature and carbon dioxide
Globally averaged surface air temperature and carbon dioxide
concentration (parts per million by volume) since 1880 (Updated from
Karl and Trenberth, 2003)
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
1. Measuring Green House Gaz atmospheric
concentrations
Changes in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane,
and nitrous oxide since 1000 A.D. (from IPCC, 2001)
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
1. Measuring cropping calendar evolution (ex. Wine harv. date -
Rhône, Fr)
One month advance in 50 years,
Alcohol rate increase; migration northward
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
2. Understanding and Modeling the Climate System
A complex system :
• Components : sun, atmosphere, ocean,
cryosphere, land, biosphere, man
• Retroactions : ocean inertia, icesheet
inertia, vegetation response
• Uncertainties : evolution of Green
House Gaz emission rates; role of clouds
and aerosols
A rigorous scientific approach for
modelling scenarios : various modelling
groups
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
2. Understanding and Modeling the Climate System
(1) A Global (planet scale) approach :
• Grid representation of the planet
• Submodels per component (atmosph.,
ocean, cryosphere, land and biosphere)
• Coupling sub-models (retroactions)
• Forcing scenarios
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
2. Understanding and Modeling the Climate System
(1) A Global (planet scale) approach :
• Grid representation of the planet
• Submodels per component (atmosph.,
ocean, cryosphere, land and biosphere)
• Coupling sub-models (retroactions)
• Forcing scenarios
(2) Regional approaches :
• Fine scale models
• Regional scenarios
Modelling past period and future period
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
3. Forecasting impacts : mean temperature increase
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Source : IFPRI 2009 Changement climatique, impact sur l’agriculture et coûts d’adaptation
2000-2050 Climate Projections
(NCAR – USA; CSIRO-Australia) with
Green House Gaz emission
scenarios (IPCC A2 scenario)
Temperature
Mexico
Temperature increase +2°C
Precipitation decrease -100mm/year
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Source : IFPRI 2009 Changement climatique, impact sur l’agriculture et coûts d’adaptation
2000-2050 Climate Projections
(NCAR – USA; CSIRO-Australia) with
Green House Gaz emission
scenarios (IPCC A2 scenario)
Precipitations
Mexico
Temperature increase +2°C
Precipitation decrease -100mm/year
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
3. Forecasting impacts : rainfall variability
Forecasted impact of climate change on rainfed cereal potential production
(source FAO, 2008)
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
3. Forecasting impacts : crop production
Forecasted impact of climate change on rainfed cereal potential production
(source FAO, 2008)
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
1. Climate change and its impact on agriculture
1. Measuring; Understanding, Modelling; Forecasting
2. A case study : sanitary risk
2. The GEOGLAM initiative : Global Agricultural Monitoring
15
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
H. Guis, C. Caminade, C. Calvete, A. Morse, F. Roger, M. Baylis
SExES, CIRAD, Montpellier, 17/09/2009
3. Forecasting impacts : sanitary risk
Mapping the effects of climate change on bluetongue transmission in Europe
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
• Massive emergence in Europe in the last 10 years in Europe:- Different (9) serotypes of virus- Different vectors, both exotic and local
Source: European Commission, May 2009
Bluetongue: an emerging disease in Europe
• Historically a tropical disease
- Historical distribution: 35 °S - 40 °N
Area of circulation of BTV before 1998
Presence of Culicoides imicola before 1998
Adapted from Purse B.V. et al. 2005
40° N
35° S
C. imicolaBTV1,2,4,9,16
sheep
Vectors ? Obsoletus gp?
BTV 8, 6, 1 Cattle & sheep
Bluetongue: arboviral disease of ruminants transmitted by some species of Culicoides
Suspected links with Climate Change : are we able to identify ? to forecast ?
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Climate and vector-borne diseases
Vector-borne disease (disease transmitted by blood-sucking arthropod): 3 actors, all under influence of climate
Growth rate
Survival
Distribution
Life habits
Development rate
Survival
Activity (thus contact rates)
Length of gonotrophic cycle
Vector competence
Survival
Replication rate
Climate affects:
Climate?
• Temperature
• Humidity/Rain
• Wind
• Soil moisture
• Variability
• … ???
pathogen
vector
host
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases : risk of installation
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases : risk of installation
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases : risk of installation
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases
1
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
Vector contaminationDuration of viraemia in host (1/r)Ratio vector/host (m)Biting rate (a)
1
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases
1 2
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
Vector contaminationDuration of viraemia in host (1/r)Ratio vector/host (m)Biting rate (a)
1
Vector competenceCompetence (c)Survival (p) during theLength of extrinsic incubation period (n)
2
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases
Vector contaminationDuration of viraemia in host (1/r)Ratio vector/host (m)Biting rate (a)
1
Vector competenceCompetence (c)Survival (p) during theLength of extrinsic incubation period (n)
2
Transmission to new hostSurvival (p)Biting rate (a)
3
1 2 3
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases
m: ratio vectors to host
a: biting rate
b: vector competence
p: daily survival rate
n: extrinsic incubation period
r:1/duration of viraemia in host
)ln(
p b a² mR0
n
pr
Vector contaminationDuration of viraemia in host (1/r)Ratio vector/host (m)Biting rate (a)
1
Vector competenceCompetence (c)Survival (p) during theLength of extrinsic incubation period (n)
2
Transmission to new hostSurvival (p)Biting rate (a)
3
1 2 3
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases
m: ratio vectors to host
a: biting rate
b: vector competence
p: daily survival rate
n: extrinsic incubation period
r:1/duration of viraemia in host
)ln(
p b a² mR0
n
pr
1 2 3
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
Statistical models of presence and
abundance of C. imicola and C.
obsoletus
(temperature & precipitation related)
(C. Calvete)
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases
m: ratio vectors to host
a: biting rate
b: vector competence
p: daily survival rate
n: extrinsic incubation period
r:1/duration of viraemia in host
)ln(
p b a² mR0
n
pr
1 2 3
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
Lab based
studies : relation
between vector
parameters and
Temperature
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator
• R0 models for vector-borne diseases
m: ratio vectors to host
a: biting rate
b: vector competence
p: daily survival rate
n: extrinsic incubation period
r:1/duration of viraemia in host
)ln(
p b a² mR0
n
pr
1 2 3
What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?
Can we map risk indicators from environmental data and climatic data (Temp., precipitations)
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
R0 past anomalies (Observed climate)
R0 relative anomalies (relative to 1961 – 1999 climatology)
Global increasing north-south gradient
Northwest at risk
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
R0 past anomalies (Observed climate)
R0 relative anomalies (relative to 1961 – 2006 climatology)
Global increasing north-south gradient
Northwest at risk 15 years before virus was introduced (2006)
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Future anomalies (2011-2030) : SRESA1B
R0 relative anomalies in future and trends
Global trends: positive anomalies, especially in northern Europe
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Conclusion
Forecasted impact of climate change on rainfed cereal potential production
(source FAO, 2008)
(1) Climate change strongly affects not only the
water cycle and carbon cycle
(2) Climate change strongly affects biosphere and
human activity
(3) There is a strong need for an international
effort to monitor, understand and forecast
climate change and its impact
(4) There is a need for political commitment to
mitigation and adaptation efforts
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
1. Climate change and its impact on agriculture
• Measuring
• Understanding, modelling
• Forecasting
• Acting for mitigation
2. The GEOGLAM initiative : Global Agricultural Monitoring
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
© GEO Secretariat
IKONOS
QuickBird
SPIN-2
SPOT 4, 5
EROS A1
EnvisatEnvisat
Aura/Aqua/TerraAura/Aqua/Terra
GraceGrace
QuikScatQuikScatSageSage
SeaWindsSeaWindsTRMMTRMM
Toms-EP
UARSUARS
Landsat 7Landsat 7
SORCESORCE
ACRIMSAT
CBERS
SeaWiFSSeaWiFS
ERBSERBS
JasonJason
Orbview 2, 3
Radarsat ALOS
DMC
GEO-GLAM
GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL MONITORING
Pascal Kosuth,
for the GEOGLAM group and GEO Agriculture Community of Practice
Cereal grain production per hectare
(Source: SAGE, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisc., USA)
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
To reinforce the international community’s capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales.
© GEO Secretariat
IKONOS
QuickBird
SPIN-2
SPOT 4, 5
EROS A1
EnvisatEnvisat
Aura/Aqua/TerraAura/Aqua/Terra
GraceGrace
QuikScatQuikScatSageSage
SeaWindsSeaWindsTRMMTRMM
Toms-EP
UARSUARS
Landsat 7Landsat 7
SORCESORCE
ACRIMSAT
CBERS
SeaWiFSSeaWiFS
ERBSERBS
JasonJason
Orbview 2, 3
Radarsat ALOS
DMC
Earth
Observation
© GEO Secretariat
IKONOS
QuickBird
SPIN-2
SPOT 4, 5
EROS A1
EnvisatEnvisat
Aura/Aqua/TerraAura/Aqua/Terra
GraceGrace
QuikScatQuikScatSageSage
SeaWindsSeaWindsTRMMTRMM
Toms-EP
UARSUARS
Landsat 7Landsat 7
SORCESORCE
ACRIMSAT
CBERS
SeaWiFSSeaWiFS
ERBSERBS
JasonJason
Orbview 2, 3
Radarsat ALOS
DMC
Earth
Observation
Earth
Observation
MeteorologyMeteorologyMeteorology
Agronomy
Agro-economy
Agronomy
Agro-economy
Agronomy
Agro-economy
Cereal grain production per hectare
(Source: SAGE, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisc., USA)
Cultivated area / crop type area
Crop yield forecast
1. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : objectives
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
1. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : background (G20 2011)
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
G20 Final Declaration (nov. 2011)
44. We commit to improve market information and transparency in order to make international markets for agricultural commodities more effective. To that end, we launched:
• The "Agricultural Market Information System" (AMIS) in Rome on September 15, 2011, to improve information on markets ...;
• The "Global Agricultural Geo-monitoring Initiative" (GEOGLAM) in Geneva on September 22-23, 2011, to coordinate satellite monitoring observation systems … to enhance crop production projections ...
1. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : background (G20 2011)
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Trade
Demand
Stocks
Price
Supply
Policies
Finance
GEOGLAM
AMIS
38
International effort to
increase information availability,
quality and transparency
4. Linking and
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XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012
El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Normalized difference vegetation index over Pakistan August 3, 2011 (FAO)
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Action 1. Global and regional agricultural monitoring Systems Harmonizing, connecting, strengthening inter-comparing existing
systems, disseminating information.
Action 2. Strengthening national capacities for agric. monitoringcapacity development for the use of EO, experience sharing,
research
Action 3. At risk regions and countries agricultural monitoring Improving monitoring methods, tools and systems for vulnerable
agricultural systems
Action 4. Global Earth observation system of systems for agricult.
Developing a coordinated operational system : satellite and in-situ ;
Actions 5 and 6 : Research Coordination + Inform. dissemination
Long term commitment. Full and open data policy.
2. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : actions and outputs
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Deliverable 1 : Access to Earth Observation data for agriculture
monitoring
Deliverable 2 : Access to Meteorological data and forecasts
Deliverable 3 : Cultivated areas, crop-type distribution, crop yield
forecasts
Deliverable 4 : Improved monitoring methods
Deliverable 5 : Strengthened national agricultural monitoring capacities
Deliverable 6 : Dissemination of data to stakeholders;
Deliverable 7 : A sustained Earth observation system of systems for
agricultural monitoring,
2. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : actions and outputs
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
National
Capacity for
Agricultural
Monitoring
Enhancing
Global Agricultural
Monitoring
Systems
Agriculture
Monitoring for countries at risk
Coordinated Satellite and In-Situ Earth Observations
Data, products and information DisseminationCondition/Area/ Yield / Statistics
Operational Research and Development Data/Techniques/Methods/Best Practices
FAO StatAMISPublic Govts
3. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : Components
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1 32
Earth Observations
Satellite / Ground Data /
Models
Meteorological
Expertise and
Info
Agricultural Expertise
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5
6
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Key actors of the Initiative :
International entities : GEO, FAO, WMO, CEOS, CGIAR
Operational actors : GEO Agriculture Community of Practice
Regional and National organisations
Private actors, NGOs
5. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : Status and agenda
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2011 2012
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
Jan.- May 2011 : Initial design in the framework of G20 priorities
June 2011 : Adoption by G20 Agriculture Action Plan
Sept. 2011 : International GEO-GLAM meeting at GEO Geneva
Nov. 2011 : G20 Final Declaration (GEO-GLAM art. 44)
Nov. 2011 : Presentation at GEO VIII Plenary (90 countries, 60 inst.)
Nov.11 – Feb. 2012 : Detailed action plan and budget + Governance scheme
+ Linkage with AMIS
March – June 2012 : Governance definition and approval
Linkage with G20 Mexican presidency
Securing funds for implementation
Informing national and international actors
July 2012 on … : Implementation
5. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : Status and agenda
44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2011 2012
Intercomparison of global products; JECAM;
EO data access; Capacity building modules
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El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23
GEO-GLAM
GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL MONITORING
Thank you for your attention
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