GIS in Weather and SocietyGIS in Weather and Society

Olga WilhelmiInstitute for the Study of Society and Environment

National Center for Atmospheric Research

WAS*ISNovember 8, 2005Boulder, Colorado

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

GIS basic conceptsHow GIS can be used in weather / societyresearch and applications Current applications Emerging developments / potential use

Case Study Front Range flash flood project

ArcGIS quick introductionClass exercisePresentation of results and discussion

People

ProceduresHardware

Data

Geographic Information SystemsGeographic Information SystemsComputer Mapping

SpatialAnalysis

DatabaseManagement

Software

Analyze

Display

Output

Capture

Store

Query

GIS IndustryGIS Industry

Commercial (COTS) ESRI, MapInfo, IDRISI, and many other vendors

Open Geospatial Consortium Standards, specifications, protocols

Image courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com)

Organizing Spatial Data in a GISOrganizing Spatial Data in a GIS

A GIS works withthematic layers ofspatial data

Allows to ask andanswer questions bycomparing andintegrating differentlayers of data

Capturing DataCapturing Data

GIS includes methods for inputtinggeographic (X,Y) and tabular (attribute) data

Vast collection of geographically referenceddata already exists in digital format Resources on the Web

Satellite imagery, photography

Coordinates (X, Y) – weather station locations

Paper Maps

Storing DataStoring Data

Vector formats Discrete representation of reality

(points, lines, polygons)

Raster formats Use square cells to model reality

QueryQuery

Identifying specificfeatures

Identifying andselecting featuresbased on certaincondition

AnalysisAnalysis

Proximity

Overlay

Network

Spatial statistics

Custom tools

DisplayDisplay

Maps

Graphs

Reports

OutputOutput

Paper Maps

Images

Internet

Images courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com)

Weather in GISWeather in GIS

From static to dynamicFrom static to dynamic

Current use of GISCurrent use of GIS

Mapping: visualization of informationData integration: integrating environmentaland social data in a single framework allowsto address interdisciplinary questions onweather-society interactionsData analysis: exploration of spatial patterns,relationships, networks; spatial statisticsData distribution: disseminating weather andclimate science to broader audiences

Impacts AssessmentsImpacts Assessments

Vulnerability/Risk AssessmentsVulnerability/Risk Assessmentsclimate soils

land use irrigation

Agricultural drought vulnerability

Environmental and Societal ImpactsEnvironmental and Societal ImpactsFire fuel characterizationFire Model – GIS integration

Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme precipitation events

Valuation of ecosystem service changes in alpine landscapes

http://www.gisclimatechange.org

DataDataDisseminationDissemination

http://map.ngdc.noaa.gov/website/nosa/viewer.htm

GIS in Weather and ClimateGIS in Weather and Climate

NCAR GIS Strategic Initiative

European COST-719

Atmospheric Data Modeling

AMS: GIS applications (2003-2005)

EGU: GIS in meteorology and climatology(2001-2005)

Ongoing and Emerging ResearchOngoing and Emerging ResearchThemesThemes

Spatial Interoperability Data formats Compatible Tools

Adding time in GISScale Upscaling Downscaling

Interpolation methodsStandardsInvestigating coupledsystemsImpact assessment ofearth system changes

Weather Forecasting:Weather Forecasting:OGC web servicesOGC web services

MM5 weather forecast model displayed withthe Open GIS Web Mapping Service in CIDD(visualization software developed at NCAR)

Meteorological ObservationsMeteorological Observations

Radar mosaic and mobile surface temperature observations

Outputs from Outputs from GCMsGCMs

Vulnerability ofagriculturalproduction andHigh Plainsaquifer’s depletingwater resources topredicted climatechange in theGreat Plains

WRF Forecast of KatrinaWRF Forecast of Katrina

Wind Speed – 08/29 - 1400

WRF Forecast of KatrinaWRF Forecast of Katrina

Total Rainfall

Case StudyCase Study

A Flash Flood Risk Assessment of theA Flash Flood Risk Assessment of theColorado Front Range Region Using GISColorado Front Range Region Using GIS2005 SOARS project Braxton Edwards, University of Oklahoma (SOARS

protОgО) Olga Wilhelmi and Rebecca Morss, NCAR (SOARS

mentors)

ProblemProblemYearly average of $4.5 Billiondamage and 98 deathsbetween 1983 and 2003

Damage due to floodscontinues to rise as thepopulation and property atrisk increases

Accurate risk assessmentscan aid in determiningappropriate flood control,mitigation, and responsestrategies

Study Area - Colorado Front RangeStudy Area - Colorado Front Range

Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment

Risk = Exposure *VulnerabilityExposure takes intoaccount the environmentalconditions or hazardVulnerability is acharacteristic of a personor a group to cope with,resist and recover from ahazard

4. MethodsWhat is risk?

Risk = Exposure * Vulnerability

Use the risk equation to identify primary exposure and vulnerability factors contributing to the risk of flooding in the Front Range. Use GIS for data integration, analysis, and mapping of the flash flood risk zones in the Colorado Front Range region, and integrate the data with hydrological and statistical precipitation models.

ProximityProbabilityFrequencyIntensityDuration

Preparedness

Coping

Recovery

4. MethodsWhat is risk?

Risk = Exposure * Vulnerability

Use the risk equation to identify primary exposure and vulnerability factors contributing to the risk of flooding in the Front Range. Use GIS for data integration, analysis, and mapping of the flash flood risk zones in the Colorado Front Range region, and integrate the data with hydrological and statistical precipitation models.

ProximityProbabilityFrequencyIntensityDuration

Preparedness

Coping

Recovery

Theoretical BasisTheoretical Basis

Vulnerability assessments (e.g., Cutter 1996, Cutter etal. 2000, Wilhelmi et al. 2004)

Exposure assessment: AMBER – Areal Mean BasinEffective Rainfall method to identify watersheds withflash flood potential (e.g., NWS, Johnson 2002)

Data sourcesData sources

NWSNWS (courtesy ofTreste Hughes)

Front Range watershedboundaries

NWS River ForecastCenters

createdFlash Flood Guidancevalues

F.L. Ogden (UCONN)Converter courtesy ofD. Yates (RAL)

1997 Fort Collins radarprecipitation

ESRI, Inc.ESRI, IncCritical facilities,infrastructure

U.S. Census 2000ESRI, IncDemographics

Original sourceIn GIS formatData type

Demographicvulnerability

weighting

Total Vulnerability

Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment

65_upHispanic

FemaleRenter

classification

Critical FacilitiesIdentify Vulnerability Factors

1 hour

3 hour

6 hour

Exposure

Exposure assessmentExposure assessment

Radar rainfall

FFG

Basin Average FFG

Watershed boundaries

Basin average rainfall

Watersheds

Total Risk

Fort Collins1,3, and 6 Hour Rain

Accumulation

Denver6 Hour Rain Accumulation

Risk=Exposure*VulnerabilityRisk=Exposure*Vulnerability

Flood Exposure VulnerabilityUrban areas

Case 1 Case 2

Comparing Risk in Fort Collins andComparing Risk in Fort Collins andDenverDenver

GIS in weather and society

GIS is a useful tool to study problems whenpeople matter

GIS is a useful tool for integrative research

Ongoing research in Atmo-GIS offers newpotentials

ArcGIS ArcGIS quick overview and walkquick overview and walkthrough exercisethrough exercise

ArcCatalog

ArcMap

ArcToolbox

DiscussionDiscussion

Can we identify research questions and/orproblems where GIS can benefit both scienceand society?

Who do you see as primary users of GISproducts (datasets, decision-support tools,web services)

Any other questions you many have