GETTING INTO AND

OUT OF HOT WATER

Peter F Gill

crestport.services@googlemail.com

1

MELANIE PHILLIPS, DAILY MAIL,

12 JANUARY 2004

“The claim of man-made global

warming represents the decent of

science from the pursuit of truth into

politicised propaganda. The fact that

it is endorsed by the top scientist in

British government shows how deep

the rot has gone.”

2

THE INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS, CLIMATE

CHANGE PREDICTION, 2005

“This paper, produced on behalf of the Institute of

Physics by Professor Alan J. Thorpe, explains how

predictions of future climate change are made using

climate models. It is hoped that the paper will

increase believability in these models and be

persuasive that anthropogenic activity is likely to be

causing global warming. It aims to convince policy-

makers, the general public and the scientific

community that the threats posed by global climate

change are real”

3

Richard S. Lindzen, CCNet 45/06 -

13 March 2006

A question rarely asked, but nonetheless important,

is whether the promotion of alarmism is really good

for science? The situation may not be so remote from

the impact of Lysenkoism on Soviet genetics.

However, personally, I think the future will view the

response of contemporary society to 'global

warming' as simply another example of the

appropriateness of the fable of the Emperor's New

Clothes. For the sake of the science, I hope that

future arrives soon.

4

CRUDE ESTIMATE OF CURRENT GREENHOUSE EFFECT

TSFC = Te 4

Where: TSFC is temperature of air near Earth’s surface Te is the effective infrared radiation emission temperature Г is an average transmittance of infrared radiation The simplification wrongly ignores other heat transfer mechanisms Thorpe estimates Te ≅ 255K With current concentrations of greenhouse gases Thorpe estimates Г at 0.2 Inserting these figures results in TSFC ≅ 287K or about 14

0C

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CURRENT RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS

TO GREENHOUSE EFFECT

• Water vapour 95.00%• Carbon Dioxide 3.62%• Methane 0.36%• Nitrous Oxide 0.95%• Other 0.07%NB Anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric

carbon dioxide is about 4% of total which

equates to around 0.15% of GHE.

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WATER VAPOUR

• As water vapour is by far the most important greenhouse gas changes in the amount in the

atmosphere are likely to be more important than

similar percentage changes in carbon dioxide

• Evaporation of ocean water is a function of temperature, solar irradiance and wind. For a fixed

temperature the latter two factors predominate.

• Link between carbon dioxide and water vapour is mainly ocean temperature.

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CARBON DIOXIDE• Not a pollutant• Essential for life

• It is a fiction that the pre-industrial content was constant and ideal at 290ppm

• Recent Earth’s history (last 600 million years) shows7000ppm down to 500ppm in Paleozoic

Range 1000 - 2500ppm in Mesozoic

From 1000ppm down to 400ppm in Cenozoic

• Current level is lowest since the end of the Paleozoic• Oceans contain 60 times present atmospheric level

8

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2 OVER GEOLOGIC TIME

Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).Temperature after C.R. Scotese http://www.scotese.com/climate.htmCO2 after R.A. Berner, 2001 (GEOCARB III)

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CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC CO2

LEVELS & EXCHANGES

• 2,700 gigatons CO2 in atmosphere (380ppm)• Current exchanges with biosphere & oceans

at 440 and 330 gigatons respectively totalling

770 gigatons

• Anthropogenic CO2 emissions currently circa 26 gigatons

• IPCC summary documents mention residence time of CO2 in atmosphere at 50 – 250 years

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Effective atmospheric CO2 lifetimeThe effective lifetime for CO2 in the atmosphere, can be determined by the help of radioactive, radiogenic, and stable isotopes.

All measurements with different methods show short effective lifetimes for atmospheric CO2, only ca.5 - 6 years .

Sundquist (1985); Segalstad (1998) 11

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CO2 VALUE OF 290 ppmv selected by

Callendar is now used in models

Encircled values were selected by Callendar

Redrawn after Fonselius et al.. 1956.

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Callendar used only 1%

of >90 000 CO2 measurements

without such selection

between 1812 to 1962 (Beck, 2006)

19th century CO2 concentration

averaged 335 ppmv(Slocum, 1955)

Siple Station Ice Core Data Shifted 82

Years

*************************************************************************CO2

Date of Date air concentration inDepth Samples ice enclosed extracted air(m) measured (yr AD) (yr AD) (ppmv)

187.0-187.3 10 1663 1734-1756 279177.0-177.3 10 1683 1754-1776 279162.0-162.3 9 1723 1794-1819 280147.0-147.2 10 1743 1814-1836 284128.0-129.0 47 1782 1842-1864 288111.0-112.0 26 1812 1883-1905 297102.0-103.0 26 1832 1903-1925 30092.0-93.0 25 1850 1921-1943 30682.0-83.0 28 1867 1938-1960 31176.2-76.6 11 1876 1947-1969 31272.4-72.7 11 1883 1954-1976 31868.2-68.6 8 1891 1962-1983 328

*************************************************************************

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(BERN GROUP: Neftel et al., 1985; Friedli et al. 1986). The age of air bubbles in SIPLE ice deposited in 18 91 was „corrected” by 82 years to 1973 .

All Siple datashifted 82 years

5 bars

15 bars

328 ppmv in 1891

Decrease of CO 2due to formation ofclathrates at pressureabove 5 bars

MOTHER OF ALL CO 2 HOCKEY CURVES: SIPLE, ANTARCTICA

CO2 solubility incresed with depth 3 times

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BECK, 2007. Energy & Environment, 18:259-282

90 000 CO2 CHEMICAL MEASUREMENTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE, 1812 - 1961

(ACCURACY 1 TO 3%). MOST IGNORED BY CALLENDAR

proxy

SIPLE ice core

Mauna Loa

1855

19421820

direct chemical

THESE DIRECT ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS ARE IGNORED BY IPCC

INSTEAD PROXY ICE CORE DATA ARE USED, WHICH ARE ARTEFACTS

PROXY DATA IS ONLY INDICATIVE

• Zbigniew Jaworowski has shown that carbon dioxide content of ancient atmospheres

deduced from ice cores is unreliable

• ZJ cites around 20 processes (physical, chemical and physical chemical) cause CO2

depletion relative to O2 & N2

• ZJ estimates that 30-50% (variable) of CO2 is lost from ice inclusions

• It is clear that ‘short term’ detail is lost

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RECENT PAST RAPID CHANGES IN

CO2 LEVELS

• 1820 – 1847 Average change -32 gigatons/yr• 1855 – 1868 Average change -44 gigatons/yr• 1942 – 1953 Average change -78 gigatons/yr• It follows that the variability of carbon dioxide

emission and absorption by natural processes

exceed current anthropogenic emissions

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AREAS FOR MORE RESEARCH

• Sun – Earth interactions

• Earth’s Heat transfer mechanisms • Mechanisms for changes of water evaporation rates

from oceans, soils, vegetation etc.

• Clouds• Mechanisms for changes in carbon dioxide (natural)

sinks

• Mechanisms for changes in residence times of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

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END OF PRESENTATION

21

Timescales and mechanisms of climate

change

• Four timescales to consider:

– Tectonic (millions of years)– Orbital (hundreds of thousands of years)– Millennial (thousands of years)– Decadal (tens of years)

• Different predominant mechanism driving the change depending upon timescale

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Timescale Predominant driving mechanism

Rate of climate change

Tectonic Plate tectonics, volcanic activity

Changes occurring over millions of years

Orbital Changes in position of Earth’s orbit around sun

100,000’s to 1000’s years (e.g. glacial-interglacial cycles)

Millennial Solar variability, changes in ocean circulatory patterns (THC)

1000’s to

Changes in atmospheric CO2 over tectonic timescale

a) results from Geocarb model (Berner, 2004)

b) results from fossil soil carbonates (Ekart et al., 1999)

Approx. present day

values

2050 values

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Changes in atmospheric CO2 and temperature over orbital timescales

Pre-

industrial

levels

Petit et al., 1999, Nature,

Currently at

380 ppmv

25

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CO2 IN AIR 6800 TO 8700 YEARS B.P.. BASED ON STOMATA OF FOSSIL BIRCH LEAVES FROM DENMARK,

AND ON ICE CORE FROM TAYLOR DOME, ANTARCTICA (LEFT LINE). AFTER WAGNER ET AL., 2002.

stomataIce core

difference up to

>60 ppmv

Holocene Warm Period

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CHEMICAL MEASUREMENTS OF CO2 CONCENTRATION IN AIR (BECK, 2007),

AGREE WITH

TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS AT 5 ANTARCTIC SITES (SCHNEIDER et al. 2006)

temperature

5 ice cores

CO2 chemical

1820

1855

19421990

Schneider et al. STRANGE CONCLUSION (black thick line):

„ANTARCTIC TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 0.2OC SINCE THE LATE 19TH

CENTURY”.

IN FACT THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT CHANGE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 19TH CENTURY.

BOOKS THAT TELL A DIFFERENT STORY “Air Con” - The Seriously Inconvenient Truth about Global Warming Ian Wishart, Howling at the Moon Publishing Ltd 200 9 ISBN 978-0-9582401-4-7 “Red Hot Lies” Christopher C Horner, Regnery Publishing, Inc. 2008 ISBN 978-1-59698-538-4 “An Appeal to Reason – A Cool Look at Global Warmin g” Nigel Lawson, Duckworth Overlook 2008 ISBN 978-0-7156-378 6-9 “Unstoppable Global Warming – Every 1,500 Years” S Fred Singer & Dennis T Avery, Rowman & Littlefield Publi shers, Inc 2007 ISBN 978-0-7425-5116-9 “The Deniers” Lawrence Solomon, Richard Vigilante B ooks 2008 ISBN 978-0-9800763-1-8 “Cool It – The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide t o Global Warming” Bjorn Lomborg Marshal Cavendish Ltd 2007 ISBN 978-0-462-09912-5 “Climate Confusion” Roy W Spencer, Encounter Books 2008 ISBN 978-1-59403-210-3 “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and Environmentalism” Christopher C. Horner, Regnery Publishing, Inc. 2007 ISBN 978-1-59698-501-8 “Scared to Death” Christopher Booker & Richard Nort h, Continuum Books 2007 ISBN 0-8264-8614-2; 978-0-8264 -8614-1 All the above are available from Amazon 28