germany's renewable energy sector in the context of energy transition
TRANSCRIPT
Germany's renewable energy sector in the
context of energy transition
Marc UhligDeutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena)German Energy AgencyBogotá, 02.07.2015
15. Apr 2023 2
Agenda
About the German Energy Agency (dena) Basics Energiewende Renewable Energies in Germany Power Plants and Security of Supply The Power Grid Electricity/Energy Costs and Prices Q&A
15. Apr 2023 Speaker 3
About the German Energy Agency (dena)
Ownership structure of dena
15. Apr 2023 4
dena’s focus topics and key areas
15. Apr 2023 5
15. Apr 2023 Referent 6
Basics EnergiewendeTransformation of the German energy system
Marc Uhlig
Milestones of the Energiewende
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Germany is part of an integrated European energy and climate strategy.
’14
Amendment of theRenewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)
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Marc Uhlig
Three target areas of the Energiewende
Affordability, security of supply and environmental protection are interlinked.
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15. Apr 2023 Marc Uhlig 9
1. Phase-out nuclear power generation
2. Reduce dependency on energy imports
3. Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets
4. Development of new technologies as new sources of growth and employment
5. Show that energy policy can be both sustainable and economically successful
Five reasons for the Energiewende
Marc Uhlig
StakeholderDialogue
Central steering of the Energiewende
15. Apr 2023 10
In charge of the Energiewende
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
Federal and state coordination
• Chancellor• Prime ministers of the Länder
Monitoring report “Energy of the Future”
Energy GridsPlatform
Energy Efficiency Platform
Research and Innovation Platform
Electricity Market Platform
Buildings Platform
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Two pillars of the Energiewende
The energy transition’s foundation are renewables and reduced energy consumption.
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Renewable Energy
Key legislation:
Renewable Energy Sources Act Renewable Energy Heat Act
• Steady growth• Environmentally friendly
Market and system integration
Energy research and development
Supporting fields of action
European energy and climate policy
Key legislation:
Energy Saving OrdinanceHeating Cost Ordinance
• Reduce energy consumption
• Cost-efficient
Energy Efficiency
2050 Energiewende targets
Renewables are on track. Additional measures will bring climate and energy efficiency on track.
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* 20
13
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, AG
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20
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Marc Uhlig
Climate
Renewable Energies
Energy Efficiency
% final energy consumption
% gross electricity consumption
% primary energy consumption (vs. 2008)
energy productivity
building renovation
% greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990)
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
+2.1% p.a.
doubling of renovation rate: 1% 2%
-40-55
-70-80 to -95
35 40 to 4550 65
8055 to 60
1830
4560
-20
-50
12%*
27.3%
- 8.9%
1.2%* p.a.
~1%* p.a.
-22.6%*
Achieved 2014
German nuclear phase-out timeline
Nuclear phase-out will reduce total power capacity by 22.1 GW by 2022.
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Dec 2017
Dec 2019
Dec 2021
Dec 2022
FukushimaGW
43%
57%
Nov
20
03
May
20
05
Aug
20
11
May
20
15
15. Apr 2023 Speaker 14
Renewable Energies in Germany
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Hydropower Wind power (Onshore) Wind power (Offshore - installed but not complete grid-connected) Photovoltaics Biomass
MW
el
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MW
i (2
014
)
Previous successes: Historical development of renewable energies in Germany
Since 1990, the installed power capacity from renewable energies has increased many times over.
5,595 MW
38,236 MW
38,116 MW
8,791 MW
2,340 MW
German gross electricity production
Renewables have become the biggest electricity source in just ten years.
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10.3% gas
lignite 26%
nuclear 27.1%
24.1% hard coal
5% others3.1% wind 1.1% biomass
2.9% hydro 0% solar
0.4% waste
2003 total: 608.8 TWhrenewables share: 45.6 TWh
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BD
EW
/A
GE
B 2
014
gas9.4%
lignite25.4%
nuclear15.8%
hard coal17.8%
others5.4%
wind9.1%
biomass7.0%
solar5.7%
waste 1.0%
hydro 3.4%
2014 total: 614 TWhrenewables share: 160.6 TWh
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The German federal government announced ambitious goals for the reduction of GHG and growth of RES, especially after the decision to shut down nuclear power plants by 2022.
The EEG has stimulated a significant growth of RES in Germany for more than ten years – significant share of RES at gross electricity production.
Conclusion
Marc Uhlig
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
Domestic production
Hard coal suppliers for the German market
Coal imports remain stable while domestic production has declined.
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So
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e: S
tatis
tisch
es
Bu
nd
esa
mt 2
01
4
Colombia
others
Australia
CanadaRussia
EU
South Africa
USA
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Power plants, security of supplyMaking the transformation happen
Gross power generation capacities in Germany
Renewable capacity expansion has led to a growth in capacity while nuclear will be phased out until 2022.
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Pro
gn
os
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al 2
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20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
300
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200 hydro
geothermal
photovoltaic
biomass
wind
pumped hydro
others
lignite
hard coal
gas
oil
nuclear
GW
renewable energies
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Conventional power plants are needed to back up volatile renewables.
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German electricity system volatility today
Winter 2014 - week no. 4 (January) Summer 2014 - week no. 34 (August)
Solar
Wind
Po
we
r g
en
era
tion
(G
W)
Seasonal storage
Pumped storage
Oil
Gas
Hard coal
Lignite
Nuclear
Biomass
Hydro
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Future: German electricity system volatility in 2022
Renewables can cover the total demand by 2022 but conventional back-up capacity for the winter will still be needed.
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nerg
iew
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GW
80
60
40
20
Winter 2023 (November)
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat SunMon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
GW
80
60
40
20
Summer 2023 (August)
electricity demand photovoltaic hydroconventional
plantsonshore /
offshore windbiomass
Po
we
r g
en
era
tion
(G
W)
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Average duration of supply failures in 2012
Germany has top energy security levels.
Germany
NetherlandsAustria Italy UK
Spain (2011)France
Portugal
SwedenPoland
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
excluding excep-tional events
including excep-tional events
average duration in min/a
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EE
R 2
014
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Four areas to increase flexibility
Different flexibility measures are suitable for varying shares of volatile renewables.
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Grid expansion
Flexibility RE curtailment
Demand response
Power-to-heat Pumped storage
Power-to-gas
Grids
Generation
Consumption
Storage
Share of RE80%65%50%20% 35%
2025 2035 2050 Target year
The power grid
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Enhancing infrastructure for future needs
Marc Uhlig
The challenge: connecting supply and demand
New power lines need to transport excess supply in northern Germany to southern Germany in order to prevent shortages.
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solar
wind (installed)
wind (planned)
bottleneck
transmission grid
distribution grid
high-demand areas
Marc Uhlig
Priority projects in the First Federal Requirement Plan
36 expansion projects were identified as vital for security of supply.
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1336 projects
5,700 km of priority lines by 2022
• 2,800 km new construction• 2,900 km optimisation
Marc Uhlig
The principles of the smart grid
Producers and consumers interact and communicate via the smart grid.
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15. Apr 2023 Referent 29
Electricity/Energy costs and pricesThe benefits of market development and liberalisation
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Price of rooftop PV systems in Germany
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Year
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Ma
r 0
6Ju
n 0
6S
ep
06
De
c 0
6M
ar
07
Jun
07
Se
p 0
7D
ec
07
Ma
r 0
8Ju
n 0
8S
ep
08
De
c 0
8M
ar
09
Jun
09
Se
p 0
9D
ec
09
Ma
r 1
0Ju
n 1
0S
ep
10
De
c 1
0M
ar
11
Jun
11
Se
p 1
1D
ec
11
Ma
r 1
2Ju
n 1
2S
ep
12
De
c 1
2M
ar
13
Jun
13
Se
p 1
3D
ec
13
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
net system price for 10 kW roof-top system installed capacity PV
syst
em
pri
ce [E
UR
/kW
p]
me
ga
wa
tt p
ea
k [M
Wp
]
Cost decline of photovoltaic systems and capacity growth in Germany
Broad market development and constant tariff reduction have more than halved photovoltaic system costs in Germany.
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Levelised cost of electricity in Europe 2014, 2020, 2030
Many technologies can already compete with conventional powerplants, onshore wind in particular.
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Price: 75 €/MWh
Price in€/MWh
The price is determined by the cost of the marginal technology.
33
Power plant dispatch in GW
Merit order (stylised)
Price: 35 €/MWh
RES nuclear lignite hard coal gas oil
Wholesale market pricing with merit order
Renewables shift the merit order and lower price levels.
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15. Apr 2023 Marc Uhlig
Demand: 60 GW
50
100
Muchas Gracias.
Absender | Die Exportinitiative Erneuerbare Energien | 15.04.2023 | Seite 34
Contact
German Energy Agency (dena)Division: Renewable Energy and Energy-Efficient MobilityName: Marc UhligTel.: +49 (0)30 72 61 65 – 602E-Mail: [email protected]:www.dena.de
Geschäftsstelle Exportinitiative Erneuerbare Energien im Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi)Tel.: 030 18 615- 6401/7386E-Mail: [email protected]: www.export-erneuerbare.de
Absender | Die Exportinitiative Erneuerbare Energien | 15.04.2023 | Seite 35
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Research institutions forcast 400 energy autarc comunities
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