Germany and IIASA Highlights (2008-2014)

June 2014

CONTENTS

1. Summary2. National Member Organization3. Some Leading German Personalities Associated with

IIASA4. Research Partners5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights6. Capacity Building7. Further Information

SUMMARY (2008-2014)National Member Organization

Association for the Advancement of IIASA

Membership start date 1984 But since 1972 as Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Sciences, Federal Republic of Germany (1972-1983); & Academy of Sciences of the German Democratic Republic (1972 to 1990)

Research partners 73 organizations in Germany

Areas of research collaborations

Transitions toward a sustainable energy futureResearch collaborations to tackle climate changeProjecting demographic change in Germany The carbon cycle, farmland, and forestsIncreasing resilience to natural disastersBasic research: Advancing the methods of systems analysis The future of fisheriesAnalyzing global and European water challenges

Capacity Building 21 doctoral student from Germany have participated in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program

Publication output 691 publications

NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION• Association for the Advancement of IIASA • Professor Dr Peter Lemke, Head, Climate Sciences Research Division, Alfred

Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, is the IIASA Council Member for Germany as well as the current Chair of the IIASA Council (2010-14)

• Executive Advisory Board to the German NMO:– Professor Dr. Ulrich Cubasch, Free University of Berlin– Dr. Jürgen-Friedrich Hake, Institute for Energy and Climate Research– Professor Dr. Claudia Kemfert, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)– Professor Dr. Peter Lemke (Chair), Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research – Professor Dr. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, University of Osnabrück– Professor Dr. Ortwin Renn (Vice Chair), University of Stuttgart – Professor Dr. Helga Weisz (Chair as of 1 January 2015), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact

Research and Humboldt University of Berlin• The NMO Secretary for Germany is Professor Dr. Meinhard Schulz-Baldes, Coordinator,

Klimastadt Bremerhaven, and as of January 2015 will be Professor Dr. Hermann Lotze-Campen, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Humboldt University of Berlin.

SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN GERMANY AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Ortwin Renn James W Vaupel

Claudia Kemfert Dirk Messner Ottmar Edenhofer

RESEARCH PARTNERS

• 73 institutions in Germany, including: • Friedrich Schiller University Jena • German Aerospace Agency • Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute• Karlsruhe Institute of Technology • Leibniz Institute for Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries • Max Planck Institutes (various)• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research • University of Bonn • University of Freiburg • University of Hamburg

RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS

Selected Highlights:• Germany, the Global Energy Assessment, and Transitions

Toward a Sustainable Energy Future• German Advisory Council on Global Change• Identifying Climate Impact Hotspots• Climate Change and Farmland• Increasing Resilience to Extreme Weather• Advancing Research Methods• Projecting Changing Population in Germany

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND GERMANY

8Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

• Over 50 German authors and reviewers• Launched in 2012 at the Federal Ministry for

the Environment in Berlin• Outcomes include defining the aspirational yet

feasible objectives for the UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative: 1. Ensure universal access to modern

energy services by 20302. Double the global rate of improvements in

energy efficiency by 20303. Double the share of renewable energy in

the global energy mix by 2030

TRANSITIONS TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE

9Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

GE

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

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200

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600

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1000

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2030 2050

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

GE

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GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE (WBGU)

• WBGU advises German government

• IIASA Deputy Director member since 2008 with contributions to reports including:

• global energy system transformation

• sustainability• global climate negotiations

EUROPEAN CLIMATE & ENERGY GOALS FOR 2030

Source: European Commission (2013) EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends To 2050 Reference Scenario 2013. Authorship includes IIASA’s GAINS and GLOBIOM modeling teams

Non-CO2 GHGs by major sectors in EU 28

2005 to 2050

Non-CO2 GHGs of the agriculture sector in EU 28 by source

2005 to 2050

IDENTIFYING CLIMATE IMPACT HOTSPOTS

Source: Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impacts in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FARMLANDThe impact of 2°C warming on winter wheat yields (left), and

average soil moisture (right) under conventional crop cultivation; both compared to the 2000s.

Source: EU-funded IMPACT2C project (2011-15) which includes the following German partners: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht - Centre for Materials and Coastal Research (HZG), Global Climate Forum, and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

INCREASING RESILIENCE TO EXTREME WEATHER

Source: Linnerooth-Bayer,J. Bals,C. Mechler,R. (2009) Climate Change and Extreme Events: What Role for Insurance? IIASA Policy Brief #4

ADVANCING RESEARCH METHODSAs part of the Geo-Wiki project, IIASA and partners including the

University of Freiburg have been leading a team of citizen scientists to improve maps of different land uses by examining satellite data to

identify exactly how people use the land.

Source: See, et al., 2013. Comparing the quality of crowdsourced data contributed by experts and non-experts. PLOS ONE.

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANY

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Germany - Base Year 2010

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

82.3 Million82.3 Million FemalesMales

82.3 Million

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANYSUSTAINABILITY

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Germany - Projections 2030 - SSP1

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

82.6 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANYSUSTAINABILITY

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Germany - Projections 2060 - SSP1

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

81.4 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANY

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Germany - Base Year 2010

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

82.3 Million82.3 Million FemalesMales

82.3 Million

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANYFRAGMENTATION

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Germany - Projections 2030 - SSP3

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

77 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN GERMANYFRAGMENTATION

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Germany - Projections 2060 - SSP3

Population in Millions

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

60.3 Million FemalesMales

CAPACITY BUILDING• 17 doctoral students from Germany won places on IIASA’s

Young Scientists Summer Program between 2008 and 2013.

• Plus 3 students from developing countries were sponsored by the German NMO

Southern-African Young Scientist Summer Program: (SA-YSSP)• Noor Jamal (SA-YSSP 2013-14 &

University of Flensburg)• Emnet Tadesse Woldegiorgis (SA-

YSSP 2013-14 & University of Bayreuth)

• Verena Helen van Zyl-Bulitta (SA-YSSP 2012-13 & University of Leipzig/University of Stellenbosch)

CAPACITY BUILDING

FURTHER INFORMATION

IIASA and Germanywww.iiasa.ac.at/germany

Association for the Advancement of IIASA schulz-baldes@nord-com.net