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  • Geothermal Efforts

    in Groningen

    Rien Herber Alex Daniilidis

    ESRIG Symposium, 27 march 2018

  • Location of Groningen Geothermal Concession

  • Geothermal Project Warmtestad

    10000 households

    (15% low temperature)

  • Groningen Geothermal Exploration Licence

    Daniilidis, 2015

  • 1 km -

    2 km -

    3 km -

    0 -

    5 km

    W Edoublet

    Energy Academy (projected from south, not to scale)

    Seismic Cross Section

    Zernike Campus

    15˚C

    50˚C

    100˚C

  • The Reservoir

    Source: SPB Atlas, 2011

  • Well sorted and

    rounded sand grains

    Desert Deposits

  • Rotliegend Sandstone A. In core

    B. Under the microscope

  • Groningen Geothermal Project

    Geological model in Petrel

    Daniilidis, 2015

    30 0m

  • Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions

    Pressure levels Gas saturation

    Presenter Presentation Notes As a simplified one-to-one example of the interconnections

  • Bron: NAM, 2012

    pr es

    su re

    (b ar

    )

    Production (billion m3)

    Groningen Gas Reservoir – Pressure Behaviour

  • Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions

    Pressure levels Gas saturation

    Geological parameters Layer permeability, porosity, Net-to-Gross Fault permeability

    Presenter Presentation Notes As a simplified one-to-one example of the interconnections

  • Reservoir Quality Determined by: Porosity Ø (%) & Permeability k (mD)

    Porous and permeable rock

    50 μm

    GOOD

    Pores filled with minerals

    BAD

  • Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions

    Pressure levels Gas saturation

    Geological parameters Layer permeability, porosity, Net-to-Gross Fault permeability

    Operational parameters Flow rate Injection temperature

    Defined by location

    Defined by operator

    Presenter Presentation Notes As a simplified one-to-one example of the interconnections

  • 21 scenarios x 216 scenarios = 4536 simulations

    Workflow: Dealing with Uncertainties

    Presenter Presentation Notes As a simplified one-to-one example of the interconnections

  • Groningen Doublet – Temperature/Time Distributions

    Input: 4536 simulation scenarios

    Source: Daniilidis, 2016

  • Seasonal Heat Demand and Load Factor

  • Input Data: Equipment/Installations

    Probability Distributions

    Heat Network Length Heat Network Unit Cost

    Producer well contingency Injector well contingency

    POS injection well POS production well Drilling location cost

    Duration of dev’t phase

    Fixed Values

    ESP cost Heat Exchanger cost

    Gas Separation unit cost

    Production well cost Injection well cost

    Drilling insurance cost Well Abandonment cost

  • Input Data: Production Parameters

    Probability Distributions

    Injection temperature Reservoir Permeability

    Gas Saturation Pressure Depletion

    Gas Production

    Doublet Temperature Loss Desired Capacity

    Transmission Efficiency Pump Efficiency

    Pump failure Rate

    Fixed Value

    Production Temperature

  • Input Data: Economic Parameters

    Probability Distributions

    Mean Gas Heat Price Mean Natural Gas Producer Price

    Mean Electricity Price

    Fixed Values

    Inflation Rate Interest Rate

    Discount Rate Depreciation Rate

    Ratio Geothermal to Gas Price Amount of Subsidy

    Annual OpEx

    Consumer Connection Fee Consumer Annual Usage Fee

  • mean

    75%

    90%

    100%

    25%

    M ln

    € Cumulative Discounted Cashflow

    Payback Time 23-27 Years

    (20.000 Monte Carlo Simulations)

  • Expected Monetary Value

    EMV = POS x NPVsuccess – (1 – POS) x Cost of Failure

    POSprod.well = 90%POSinj.well = 70% POSoverall = 63%

    From the NPV frequency distribution, construct an expectation curve:

    NPVsuccess Cost of Failure EMV

    P10 141 50 70

    P50 33 55 0

    P90 5 61 -20

    Monetary values in mln €

  • 1 km -

    2 km -

    3 km -

    0 -

    5 km

    W Edoublet

    Energy Academy (not to scale)

    Seismic Cross Section

    Zernike Campus

    Groningen Gas Field

  • Geothermal Location in proximity to Groningen Gasfield

  • Geothermal�Efforts� in �Groningen ���Rien Herber�Alex Daniilidis�� ESRIG Symposium, 27 march 2018 Slide Number 2 Geothermal Project Warmtestad Groningen Geothermal Exploration Licence Seismic Cross Section Zernike Campus Slide Number 6 Slide Number 7 Slide Number 8 Slide Number 9 Slide Number 10 Slide Number 11 Slide Number 12 Reservoir Quality Slide Number 14 Slide Number 15 Slide Number 16 Slide Number 17 Input Data: Equipment/Installations Input Data: Production Parameters Input Data: Economic Parameters Slide Number 21 Expected Monetary Value Seismic Cross Section Zernike Campus Slide Number 24 Slide Number 25

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