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Geothermal Efforts

in Groningen

Rien Herber Alex Daniilidis

ESRIG Symposium, 27 march 2018

Location of Groningen Geothermal Concession

Geothermal Project Warmtestad

10000 households

(15% low temperature)

Groningen Geothermal Exploration Licence

Daniilidis, 2015

1 km -

2 km -

3 km -

0 -

5 km

W Edoublet

Energy Academy (projected from south, not to scale)

Seismic Cross Section

Zernike Campus

15˚C

50˚C

100˚C

The Reservoir

Source: SPB Atlas, 2011

Well sorted and

rounded sand grains

Desert Deposits

Rotliegend Sandstone A. In core

B. Under the microscope

Groningen Geothermal Project

Geological model in Petrel

Daniilidis, 2015

30 0m

Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions

Pressure levels Gas saturation

Presenter Presentation Notes As a simplified one-to-one example of the interconnections

Bron: NAM, 2012

pr es

su re

(b ar

)

Production (billion m3)

Groningen Gas Reservoir – Pressure Behaviour

Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions

Pressure levels Gas saturation

Geological parameters Layer permeability, porosity, Net-to-Gross Fault permeability

Presenter Presentation Notes As a simplified one-to-one example of the interconnections

Reservoir Quality Determined by: Porosity Ø (%) & Permeability k (mD)

Porous and permeable rock

50 μm

GOOD

Pores filled with minerals

BAD

Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions

Pressure levels Gas saturation

Geological parameters Layer permeability, porosity, Net-to-Gross Fault permeability

Operational parameters Flow rate Injection temperature

Defined by location

Defined by operator

Presenter Presentation Notes As a simplified one-to-one example of the interconnections

21 scenarios x 216 scenarios = 4536 simulations

Workflow: Dealing with Uncertainties

Presenter Presentation Notes As a simplified one-to-one example of the interconnections

Groningen Doublet – Temperature/Time Distributions

Input: 4536 simulation scenarios

Source: Daniilidis, 2016

Seasonal Heat Demand and Load Factor

Input Data: Equipment/Installations

Probability Distributions

Heat Network Length Heat Network Unit Cost

Producer well contingency Injector well contingency

POS injection well POS production well Drilling location cost

Duration of dev’t phase

Fixed Values

ESP cost Heat Exchanger cost

Gas Separation unit cost

Production well cost Injection well cost

Drilling insurance cost Well Abandonment cost

Input Data: Production Parameters

Probability Distributions

Injection temperature Reservoir Permeability

Gas Saturation Pressure Depletion

Gas Production

Doublet Temperature Loss Desired Capacity

Transmission Efficiency Pump Efficiency

Pump failure Rate

Fixed Value

Production Temperature

Input Data: Economic Parameters

Probability Distributions

Mean Gas Heat Price Mean Natural Gas Producer Price

Mean Electricity Price

Fixed Values

Inflation Rate Interest Rate

Discount Rate Depreciation Rate

Ratio Geothermal to Gas Price Amount of Subsidy

Annual OpEx

Consumer Connection Fee Consumer Annual Usage Fee

mean

75%

90%

100%

25%

M ln

€ Cumulative Discounted Cashflow

Payback Time 23-27 Years

(20.000 Monte Carlo Simulations)

Expected Monetary Value

EMV = POS x NPVsuccess – (1 – POS) x Cost of Failure

POSprod.well = 90%POSinj.well = 70% POSoverall = 63%

From the NPV frequency distribution, construct an expectation curve:

NPVsuccess Cost of Failure EMV

P10 141 50 70

P50 33 55 0

P90 5 61 -20

Monetary values in mln €

1 km -

2 km -

3 km -

0 -

5 km

W Edoublet

Energy Academy (not to scale)

Seismic Cross Section

Zernike Campus

Groningen Gas Field

Geothermal Location in proximity to Groningen Gasfield

Geothermal�Efforts� in �Groningen ���Rien Herber�Alex Daniilidis�� ESRIG Symposium, 27 march 2018 Slide Number 2 Geothermal Project Warmtestad Groningen Geothermal Exploration Licence Seismic Cross Section Zernike Campus Slide Number 6 Slide Number 7 Slide Number 8 Slide Number 9 Slide Number 10 Slide Number 11 Slide Number 12 Reservoir Quality Slide Number 14 Slide Number 15 Slide Number 16 Slide Number 17 Input Data: Equipment/Installations Input Data: Production Parameters Input Data: Economic Parameters Slide Number 21 Expected Monetary Value Seismic Cross Section Zernike Campus Slide Number 24 Slide Number 25