geoscape 2010 census report

8/8/2019 Geoscape 2010 Census Report

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/geoscape-2010-census-report 1/37

Access the New Mainstream

…Results Change the Way Businesses Market to America?

Wil l t he 2010 Census…

César M MelgozaFounder & CEO, Geoscape

[email protected]

1-888-211-9353



Overview

• 2010 Census process and results.

• Cultural diversity—America’s growth engine.• American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series.

•

Re-thinking Corporate Diversity.• Aligning the organization behind the opportunity.

• Will corporate America embrace the Hispanic surge?

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 2



Geosc ape Back gr ound

• Geoscape International founded in ’95

• Geoscape Latin America ‘95 – ’01

• Geoscape Europe BV founded in ’02

– Regional headquarters in Amsterdam

• Geoscape Intell igence System launched ‘04• Merged ownership with Goldman Sachs June ’07

•

Worldwide headquarters in Miami

3© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.



Geoscape ® Provides

4

Actionable Intelligence for a culturally-

diverse business

environment

Data Resources

Technology Research Analytics

Solutions Consulting

• AMDSGeo-demographics

• CSDxSpending Potential

• BehaviorBase – Healthcare – Auto Insurance – The Media Audit

– Mediamark

• Ground-Truth™ Segmentation• Retail Trade Distribution• Customer Data Enrichment• Descriptive Customer Profiles• Predictive Modeling•

Sampling Design• Quantitative Surveys• Qualitative Focus Groups• Conjoint Trade-off Modeling

• Geoscape Intelligence System• DirecTarget® SDK

• Combined Deliverables• Custom Databases• Integrated Systems

• Strategic Planning• Opportunity Assessment• Business Planning Support

• HomeBase - Consumer Lists

• BizBase- Business Lists

• MediaBase

Actionable intelligence fueled by unique data, technology and experience— accelerating growth in a culturally-diverse business environment.



The 2010 CensusProcess and Results



Census 101 (A)

• The decennial census is mandated by the American constitution. – It’s primary intent is to enumerate residents for apportioning the U.S. House of Representatives.

–

A secondary purpose is to enable the “equitable distribution” of funding to state and local governments. – A tertiary purpose is to support the development of commercial activity through information sharing.

– It is administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

• For 2010, the decennial census included only the “ short-form” –

Collects basic facts of households and the individuals within them plus “group quarters” populations. – The “long-form” was previously a 16% sample co-incident with the decennial census and used to collect a

number of additional data elements, such as language-use, educational, income, and housing.

• The American Community Survey (ACS) replaced the long-form – Ongoing survey that provides data every year -- giving communities the current information they need to

plan investments and services.

– Is administered each year to approximately 2 million households and the 2009 county level data becameavailable last week.




Census 101 (B)

• The Census Bureau is funded completely by tax payers to the tuneof $15 billion for 2010. – $340 million was dedicated to Census 2010 community outreach, advertising and marketing.

• Among the most salient issues with the census are: – Representation of economically disadvantaged groups such as ethnic minorities and recent immigrant

populations.

•

Who are often reluctant to respond due to either their transient nature or their fear of persecution.

• The Census is sti ll challenged to reach ‘hard-to-count’ populationsegments like Un-acculturated Latinos. – In 2000 Census, it is believed that the Latino under-count was about 0.7% fewer than were counted,

which was 35.3 plus 250k or 37.5 million.

– Congress prohibited census from using estimation probability statistics to adjust the under-count.

– Some believe the under-count was more severe…transient populations more likely missed as well asthose who purposefully over-stay their tourist visa term.




• Decennial ful l measurement of population within households andgroup quarters.

• Includes: 7 questions. – Persons in household.

– Age.

– Ethnicity, Race, Country of Origin.

– Housing type and owner/renter.

– Gender.

– Relationships among household members.

• Ongoing monthly sample each ~2m/year:

• Includes 48 questions. – All decennial census questions.

– More detail on housing characteristics.

– Occupation.

– Public assistance data.

– Educational attainment.

– Language spoken at home and English ability.

– Place of birth and citizenship status.

– Income, Employment, etc.

Census vs . ACS





MAR-MAYMAIL CENSUS FORMS TO ALL KNOWN

HOUSEHOLDS

JAN ‘10GROUP QUARTERS &

HOMELESS

MAY-JULDOOR-2-DOOR FOLLOW UP FOR

NON-RESPONDERS

AUG-SEPFINAL DATA COLLECTION OF

REMAINING VOIDS

DEC’31-MAR ‘11 INITIALREDISTRICTING DATA INCLUDING

RACE AND LATINO COUNTS

APR ’11-JUN ’13VARIOUS MORE

DETAILED DATA FILESAND REPORTS

Census 2010 T im efram es

Summary of collection and deliverables



Som e key Census shor t c om ings

• Under-count.

• Confusion over race and ethnicity terminology. – Countries of origin under race for Asian but separately under Hispanic ethnicity.

– No option to select mestizo or mulatto as race.

•

Language: – In ACS, English ability for non-native speakers but not usage by context.

• Other issues will be seen as published and

scrutinized.




Cul t ura l Divers i t yAmerica’s Growth Engine



• Employs proprietary household & individuallevel data.

• Utilizes proprietary DirecTarget® Technology.

• Incorporates dozens of public and privatesource data sets including primary researchsurveys.

In-depth representation of

U.S. cultural diversity

•1990 & 2000 census data to presentgeographic areas; for time series.

• Incorporates the American Community Survey(Census Bureau) & integrates variousgovernment data sources.

• Identifies cultural populations missed by thecensus

– Helps rectify the under-count in recentimmigrant groups.

• Includes building permit & residential build-outdata.

• Language, Income, Socioeconomic Status(SES), Country of Origin, Consumer Spending,Age Cohorts, Acculturation (Hispanicity™and Asianicity™ segmentation), TechnologyAdoption and many others.

Over 1,500 indicators onvarious subject areas

• Features 337 detailed Consumer SpendingDynamix™ (CSDx) indicators by major ethnicitygroup, plus 15 major category and 4 summaryvariables.

Amer ic an Marke t sc ape Dat aSt ream

12

• U.S., state, Nielsen Designated Market Area

(DMA), metro area, county, congressionaldistrict, ZIP code, census tract and block

group levels.

Macro-to-micro coverage

• Built from the “ground-up” not the other way

around by a team of specialized

demographers, statistical modelers &database programmers in a perennial effort

to stay at the cutting-edge of research.

Multicultural population & household data – uniquely precise.Planning Year & Five-Year forecast market data; 2010/2015, July 1st vintage date.

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.



Bas ic c om pel l i ng fac t s

• Hispanics, African Americans and Asians represent over 100 million Americans.

• There are over 50 mill ion Hispanic steady-residents of the U.S.

• Hispanics contr ibuted 52% of overall U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010.

• Consumer spending growth drives the U.S. economy—Hispanics and Asians

represent a disproportionate amount of the growth into the foreseeable future.

• The White Non-Hispanic population represents a declining share of the American

consumer—and an increasingly dependent on government entitlement programs.

•

Most corporations are under-invested in in-culture marketing.• Corporations must operationalize behind the opportunity, not just marketing.

• Marketing is only part of the equation.

–

In-culture operations is a critical parallel step to capitalize on the opportunity.13© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.



Hispanic Populat ion Conc ent ra t ion in 1980

14Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series; Estimates as of July 1 2010.

Gateway states

bordering Mexico.




Hispanic Populat ion Dispers ion 2015

15Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series; Estimates as of July 1 2010.

Arizona is the only state

to decline in Hispanicpopulation between

2009 & 2010.

Major metro areasoutside border states are

now gateway cities too.




U.S. Popu lat ion : 2010 by Et hnic Group

16

About one-third of America’s population is of either Asian, Black or Hispanic origin; however, theseproportions vary dramatically at the state and metropolitan area levels. Many companies include Puerto

Rico within their U.S. marketing efforts, with an estimated 3.99 million residents in 2010.

Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series.

67%

12%

5%

16%

33%

Non-Hispanic Other Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian & Pacif ic Islander Hispanic





* 2000-2010-2015 numbers for Asian and Black are for Non-Hispanic; 2010 and 2015 Estimates as of July 1.17Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Note: Population in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (3.99 million) is not included in Hispanic population figures.

By 2015, the population in the three largest ethnic groups will be more than 110.5 million andHispanics will represent nearly half of that population.

Population 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Asian & PI* 980,337 980,337 3,500,439 6,994,034 10,410,556 14,345,690 15,920,986

Black* 18,871,831 22,580,289 26,495,025 29,284,605 33,707,230 37,536,836 39,262,964

Hispanic 2,181,409 9,589,216 14,608,673 21,898,546 35,238,481 49,804,061 55,874,883

Other 157,198,598 170,062,084 181,941,668 190,507,602 202,065,639 207,880,430 212,277,086

Total 179,232,175 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,684,787 281,421,906 309,567,017 323,335,919

The Non-Hispanic White population

will be about equal in size toHispanic+Black+Asian in 2050.

Hispanics became the

largest “minority” groupin 2000 and havecontinued to surge.

Populat ion Change by Et hnic i t y /Rac e



Unaut hor ized Im m igr ant s in t he U.S.

18

U.S. is currently home to about 11 million

unauthorized immigrants – Nearly 7 million are from Mexico

– Another 2.2 million come from other Latin American countries

– Majority of these immigrants are young men –aged 20 -35 years old

According to the most recent Census data

,the 2009 in-flow of new immigrants f rom

Mexico is the lowest seen in a over a

decade – March 2007 -March 2009 only saw approximately 150,000 new

arrivals – roughly 41% less than the previous year

Mexico is the leading country of origin for

immigrants entering the United States – Additionally, roughly 60% of all unauthorized immigration comes

from Mexico.

All people with steady residences are

represented in AMDS population estimates

regardless of legal status – 2.2 million legal non-immigrants with student and work visas are

included in AMDS

Sources 1. Department of Homeland Security, 20092. Jeffrey S. Passel and D’VeraCohn; U.S. Unauthorized Immigration FlowsAre Down Sharply Since Mid-Decade, September 2010.



Unaut hor ized Im m igr at ion Trend

• Overall unauthorized immigrant population declined by

nearly 1 million (7.5%) between ‘07 and ‘09.• Decline in immigration from Mexico fell only 300 thousand

(4.3%) in the same period.




Unaut hor ized Im m igrant In f low

• Overall steady decrease since ‘05




Median Household Inc om e by Cul t ure Group

21

Asians top the list in terms of annual household income, due in part to both the disproportionately large number in workingage cohorts and to their higher levels of educational attainment. Hispanics are about 17 percent below the overall median.

Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series.

HHsMedian HH

Income

Mean HH

Income

Aggregate HH

Income

Total 118,076,459 $53,362 $64,058 $7,563,742,076,500

Non-Hispanic White 97,277,035 $56,378 $66,439 $6,462,952,031,000

Black 14,374,862 $34,976 $46,149 $663,378,904,500

Asian & Pacific Islander 4,406,731 $69,026 $77,353 $340,872,032,000

Hispanic 13,713,851 $43,307 $53,446 $732,944,313,000



Hispan ic s and As ians dr ive grow t h

22Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream and Consumer Spending Dynamix™: 2010.

Hispanics and Asianstogether comprise 15%

of households, but

contribute 67% of theincrease in consumerspending.

N-H White 2.39

N-H Black 2.58

N-H Asian 2.90

Hispanic 3.32

Average Household Size




Top Hispanic Consum er Spending Cat egor ies

23Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream and Consumer Spending Dynamix™: 2010.

Hispanics consume more than the average American household in many categories. Among thoseover-indexing categories are Apparel and various food products consumed in the home.

Average householdspending is 100 percent and

the shown categories areamong those with above

average spending.




Aggre gate L i fet im e Spending per Household

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063

C u m l a t i v e H o u s e h o l d S p e n d i n g

M i l l i o n s ( 2 0 0 8 $ )

Calendar Year - Li fe Expectancy

Total Expenditures

NH White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix™.


Med ian Age L i fe Expec tance Span

Hispanic 27 83 56

Asian 33 85 52

African American 30 77 47

Non-Hispanic White 40 81 41

Aggregate spending over thelifespan of a Hispanic or Asian

household is usually greaterthan that of Non-Hispanic

White households

Hispanic household lifespan is 15 years longer and with more spending in some categories. Lifetime

value in many categories will be greater in absolute dollar terms.



Mult i -d im ensional Consum er Diver s i t y

Divers i ty

Multi-DimensionalConsumer Segmentation

Platform

Acculturation

Language Use

Country-of-OriginLife-Stage

Socioeconomic Strata

Buying Power

Media & Shopping Behavior

Psychographics




Hispanic i t y is Fundam ent a l


H i s p a n i c i t y ™ Segmentation is a platform forstrategic and tactical planning

• HA1: Americanizado – English Dominant (nearly no Spanish). –

Born in US; 3rd

+ generation. – Few Hispanic cultural practices.

• HA2: Nueva Latina – English Preferred (some Spanish). – Born in U.S. 2nd generation. – Some Hispanic cultural practices;

often “retro-acculturate”.

• HA3: Bi-cultural – Bi-Lingual (equal or nearly). – Immigrant as child or young adult. – Many Hispanic cultural practices.

• HA4: Hispano – Spanish Preferred (some English). –

Immigrant as adult, in U.S. 10+ years. – Pre-dominant Hispanic cultural practices.

• HA5: Latinoamericana – Spanish Dominant (nearly no English). – Recent Immigrant as adult (less than 10 years ago). – Primarily Hispanic cultural practices. – Identify with home country more so than U.S.

Hispanic.



Gain ing Ac c ess t o Grow t h

…will corporate America embrace the Hispanic surge?



St ra t eg ic Ex ec ut ion Parad igm


ORGANIZATIONAL ALIGNMENT

CUSTOMER TOUCHPOINTS

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY

COMPETITIVE CONTEXT



• Internal

– Securing buy-infrom C-suite.

• Resources to tapyour fare share of

the growth.• Reflecting diversity

in corporate humanresources and op’s.

• CRM 360 contact in-

culture.

• External

– In-culture brandingand promotion.

– Distribution• Get the right product to

the right customer.

– Promotion• Get shopper’s attention to

availability and deals.

–

Actionable Insights• Expand profit margin byincreasing efficiencies.

Cor porat e Chal lenges




The Ad Gap

Sources: Nielsen 2009 release adjusted for 4 quarters; ahaa.org

Total U.S. Hispanic African American

Spend $136.8 $5.7 $2.4 %Share 100% 4.2% 1.8%

%Pop. 100% 15.4% 12.9%

$136.8

$5.7 $2.4

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

I n

B i l l i o

n s

Advertising Investment

Despite the market growth and branding power offered by in-culture marketing, totaladvertising investment for 2008 reflects a g iant gap in commensurate spend.




The Op’s gap

• Great advertising is a start.

• Customer relationship management is fundamental. – Genuine client service to accommodate (and invite) diversity of cultures is key to success

of any enterprise.

• The danger of half-commitment.

– “BizBase Segment 7734.”• One person consults the organization on multicultural marketing.

• Little or No direct budget authority.

• Expected to evangelize and “Hispanicize” initiatives.

• Great expectations not normally great returns.

• Delaying the inevitable disappointment until appropriate resources are committed.




Reposi t ion ing Cor porat e Divers i t y


HR

MKG

SALES

CSR

33

Diversity at the core, beginning

with product development

Recruitment for all touch-points

reflecting the customer base

Diverse human resource

strategic to long-term leadership




CORPORATERESPONSIBILITY

LEGAL LIABILITYLITIGATION

COMMUNITYRELATIONS

DOING WELL BY DOINGGOOD

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPMANAGEMENT

STRATEGICADVANTAGE

Mul t i c u lt u ral Marke t ing Cont inuum



Summary

• 2010 Census: good data, no need to wait, use AMDS.

• Cultural diversity: the engine of American economic growth.• Most companies have not right-sized for the opportunity.

• Hispanics in particular are driving growth.

• Corporations should recognize the Hispanic opportunity andinvest appropriately in the future growth of their companies.




Discuss ion

Question & Answer



Access the New Mainstream

…Results Change the Way Businesses Market to America?

Wil l t he 2010 Census…

César M MelgozaFounder & CEO, Geoscape

[email protected]

1-888-211-9353

For a copy of thisdeck, please provide a

business card.

geoscape 2010 census report

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