georgia institute of technology sensitivity of future year results to boundary conditions jim...
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Georgia Institute of Technology
Sensitivity of Future Year Results to Boundary
Conditions
Jim Boylan, Talat Odman, Ted Russell
February 6, 2001
Georgia Institute of Technology
Overview• July 1995 Episode with 2040 BWC emissions
– Initial and Boundary Conditions reduced by the same ratio that domain-wide emissions were reduced
• NOx reduced 50%• SO2, SO4, and NH4 reduced 63%
• Comparison of Results– Basecase Results vs. 2040 BWC Results (original BCs)– 2040 BWC with Original BCs vs. 2040 BWC with Reduced BCs– Spatial and Station Plots
• Ozone• Sulfate, Nitrate, and Ammonium Aerosols• Sulfate, Nitrate, and Ammonium Wet Deposition
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ozone on July 16, 2040 (1:00 PM)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ozone Change on July 16 (1:00 PM)
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Ozone on July 16, 2040 (9:00 PM)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ozone Change on July 16 (9:00 PM)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ozone at Great Smoky Mountains
Look Rock (TN) - July 1995
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.090
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ozo
ne
(pp
m)
O3_base O3_2040_bwc O3_2040_bwc_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ozone at Shenandoah National Park
Big Meadows (VA) - July 1995
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.090
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ozo
ne
(pp
m)
O3_base O3_2040_bwc O3_2040_bwc_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ozone at Atlanta
South DeKalb (GA) - July 1995
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.090
0.100
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ozo
ne
(pp
m)
O3_base O3_2040_bwc O3_2040_bwc_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Average Sulfate on July 15, 2040
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Average Sulfate Change on July 15
Georgia Institute of Technology
Sulfate at Great Smoky Mountains
Great Smoky Mountains (TN) - Average Sulfate (g/m3)(Basecase & BWC)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7/11/95 7/12/95 7/13/95 7/14/95 7/15/95 7/16/95 7/17/95 7/18/95 7/19/95
SULF_base SULF_2040 SULF_2040_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Sulfate at Shenandoah National Park
Shenandoah National Park (VA) - Average Sulfate (g/m3)(Basecase & BWC)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7/11/95 7/12/95 7/13/95 7/14/95 7/15/95 7/16/95 7/17/95 7/18/95 7/19/95
SULF_base SULF_2040 SULF_2040_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Average Nitrate on July 15, 2040
Georgia Institute of Technology
Average Nitrate Change on July 15
Georgia Institute of Technology
Nitrate at Great Smoky Mountains
Great Smoky Mountains (TN) - Average Nitrate (g/m3)(Basecase & 2040 BWC)
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
7/11/95 7/12/95 7/13/95 7/14/95 7/15/95 7/16/95 7/17/95 7/18/95 7/19/95
NITF_base NITF_2040 NITF_2040_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Nitrate at Shenandoah National Park
Shenandoah National Park (VA) - Average Nitrate (g/m3)(Basecase & 2040 BWC)
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
7/11/95 7/12/95 7/13/95 7/14/95 7/15/95 7/16/95 7/17/95 7/18/95 7/19/95
NITF_base NITF_2040 NITF_2040_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Average Ammonium on July 15, 2040
Georgia Institute of Technology
Average Ammonium Change on July 15
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ammonium at Great Smoky Mountains
Great Smoky Mountains (TN) - Average Ammonium (g/m3)(Basecase & 2040 BWC)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
7/11/95 7/12/95 7/13/95 7/14/95 7/15/95 7/16/95 7/17/95 7/18/95 7/19/95
AMNF_base AMNF_2040 AMNF_2040_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Ammonium at Shenandoah National Park
Shenandoah National Park (VA) - Average Ammonium (g/m3)(Basecase & 2040 BWC)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
7/11/95 7/12/95 7/13/95 7/14/95 7/15/95 7/16/95 7/17/95 7/18/95 7/19/95
AMNF_base AMNF_2040 AMNF_2040_scaled_BC
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Weekly Sulfate Deposition (2040)
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Weekly Sulfate Deposition Change
Georgia Institute of Technology
Weekly Sulfate Deposition Change
Weekly Sulfate Wet Deposition(Basecase & 2040 BWC)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Great Smoky Mountains Shenandoah National Park
Su
lfate
Flu
x (m
g/m
2)
SO4_base SO4_2040 SO4_2040_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Weekly Nitrate Deposition (2040)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Weekly Nitrate Deposition Change
Georgia Institute of Technology
Weekly Nitrate Deposition Change
Weekly Nitrate Wet Deposition(Basecase & 2040 BWC)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Great Smoky Mountains Shenandoah National Park
Nitr
ate
Flu
x (m
g/m
2)
SO4_base SO4_2040 SO4_2040_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Weekly Ammonium Deposition (2040)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Weekly Ammonium Deposition Change
Georgia Institute of Technology
Weekly Ammonium Deposition Change
Weekly Ammonium Wet Deposition(Basecase & 2040 BWC)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Great Smoky Mountains Shenandoah National Park
NH
4 F
lux
(mg
/m2)
SO4_base SO4_2040 SO4_2040_scaled_BC
Georgia Institute of Technology
Summary of Reducing BCs
• Ozone– decrease 5 -8 ppb off daily maximum– additional 20 - 25% reduction from basecase
• Aerosols– Sulfate
• decrease 2 -3 g/m3 off daily average• additional 10 -15% reduction from basecase
– Nitrate• changed by less than 0.5 g/m3 (+ or -)
– Ammonium• decrease 0.5 - 1.0 g/m3 off daily average• additional 20 - 30% reduction from basecase
Georgia Institute of Technology
Summary of Reducing BCs
• Wet Deposition– Sulfate
• additional 15% reduction from basecase
– Nitrate• little change
– Ammonium• additional 5 - 10% reduction from basecase