Evening Roundup24 July 2020

US New Home Sales @ 19:30 IST

A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

34/659-P, Civil Line Road,

Padivattom, Kochi – 682024

Day So far

• Retaliatory move of China by ordering the shutdown of US consulate in

southwestern China as a payback to a similar action from Washington

rattled the market sentiments on worries that this may deteriorate

relation between top economies furthermore. The event also sidelined

optimism gained from Euro recovery fund and corona virus vaccine hopes.

Most of the global equities slipped lower, China’s Shanghai composite

index closed with loss at 3.86 percent. While European stocks slipped more

than a percent despite German manufacturing sector avoided contraction.

No exception of MCX commodities as well, all took dip except gold.

• Gold in international spot market seen steady below the psychological

level of $1900 an Ounce and also not far from the all-time high of $1920.30

an ounce, made on September 2011. Meanwhile, MCX gold seen scaling

new highs. Whereas, silver in the global platform slipped around half a

percent.

• Softening dollar supported the crude oil prices higher even though rising

tension between US and China weighed. Major bench mark WTI and Brent

seen steady near around 1.00 percent gains. Meanwhile, Natural gas prices

retreated after the massive gains in previous session on expectation of

higher demand from air-conditioning in US.

• MCX base metals were reeling under pressure when weekend round the

corner on the back of adverse global market condition. Zinc and Nickel

were the top losers. A similar move was witnessed in London platform

where copper set for the first weekly loss in 11 months.

MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Last updated at 16:00 IST

GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES

RATIOS

Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious

Day CloseVol

Gold50770 0.14 50809 50948 50570 50700 5406

Silver 60964 -0.37 61137 61400 60510 61190 15644

Crude Oil 3113 -0.1 3155 3155 3057 3116 36633

Natural Gas 132.2 -1.78 133.4 133.4 131.3 134.6 33161

Copper 508.2 -0.86 509 509.7 505.75 512.6 6818

Nickel 1012.6 -1.36 1022.2 1022.2 1001 1026.6 8740

Lead 146.55 -0.24 146.6 146.8 145.75 146.9 1278

Zinc 175.75 -0.37 174.8 176.15 173.65 176.4 4169

Aluminium 137.2 -0.44 137.4 137.4 136.75 137.8 643

Commodity Rate % Chg

Gold ($/oz)1889.219 0.12

Silver (c/oz) 22.6093 -0.49

Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 41.56 1.19

Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 1.761 -1.34

SHFE Copper (CNY/T)51230 -1

SHFE Nickel (CNY/T) 107300 2.18

SHFE Lead (CNY/T) 15005 0.74

SHFE Zinc (CNY/T)17915 0.31

SHFE Aluminium

(CNY/T) 14405 0.28

Indices Rate % Chg

Dow Jones Fut 26501.0 -0.16

CAC**4978.3 -1.1

DAX** 12914.8 -1.44

Shanghai* 3196.8 -3.86

MSCI Asia Pacific index 166.8 0.221

Baltic Dry index 1388 -5.771

Dollar index 94.70 0.01

Ratio

5 Days Monthly 90 Days

Daily High Low High Low High Low

Gold Silver ratio83.37 90.78 81.94 100.73 81.94 117.15 81.94

Gold Crude ratio259.39 259.39 252.05 268.46 248.78 726.79 247.39

Lead Zinc ratio0.83 0.86 0.83 0.92 0.83 1.01 0.81

Steel Nickel ratio35.52 36.29 34.86 36.30 32.30 36.30 28.32

Lead Aluminium ratio1.07 1.08 1.07 1.12 1.04 1.12 0.96

83.37 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold

259.39 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold

0.83 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead

35.52 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel

1.07 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead

ECONOMIC DATA

Time Country Importance Event Actual Forecast Previous

Monday, July 20, 2020

7:00 China High PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.85%

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

18:00 US Moderate Chicago Fed National Activity (Jun) 2.61

18:25 US Low Redbook (MoM) 3.00%

18:25 US Low Redbook (YoY) -5.50%

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

2:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 7.500M -8.322M

16:30 US Moderate MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 5.10%

18:30 US Moderate House Price Index (MoM) (May) 0.20%

18:30 US Moderate House Price Index (YoY) (May) 5.50%

18:30 US Moderate House Price Index (May) 288.3

19:30 US High Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 25.30% -9.70%

19:30 US High Existing Home Sales (Jun) 4.72M 4.78M 3.91M

20:00 US High EIA Crude Oil Inventories 4.892M -2.088M -7.493M

20:00 US High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 1.073M -0.618M -0.453M

20:00 US High EIA Gasoline Inventories -1.802M -1.386M -3.147M

20:00 US High

EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates

(WoW) -0.2% 0.60%

Thursday, July 23, 2020

All Day Holiday Japan - Marine Day

18:00 US High Continuing Jobless Claims 16.197M 17,600K 17,338K

18:00 US High Initial Jobless Claims 1416K 1,300K 1,300K

18:00 US Moderate Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 1,375K

19:30 Euro Moderate Consumer Confidence (Jul) -12 -14.7

20:00 US High Natural Gas Storage 37B 36B 45B

Friday, July 24, 2020

All Day Holiday Japan - National Sports Day

13:30 Euro High Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50 47.4

13:30 Euro Moderate Markit Composite PMI (Jul) 51.1 48.5

13:30 Euro Moderate Services PMI (Jul) 51 48.3

19:15 US High Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.5 49.8

19:30 US High New Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 3.60% 16.60%

19:30 US High New Home Sales (Jun) 700K 676K

22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 180

22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 253

BULLION

GOLD M

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

Technical Levels

R3 52000

R2 51650/51820

R1 51100/51380

Turnaround 50630

S1 50200/49960/49530

S2 49380/49140/48720

S3 48550/48280/47950

Technical Commentary

Ensuing buying momentum may continue in the coming session towards the

upside objective of 51100 then to 51380 region. But unexpected dip below

50630 may push prices lower.

Technical Levels

R3 65000/68000

R2 63250/63900

R1 61900/62600

Turnaround 60400

S1 59200/58000

S2 57300

S3 56700

Technical Commentary

Broad buying still intact and may continue in the coming session towards the

upside objective of 61900 then to 62600. But fall below 60400 may squeeze

down prices lower.

SILVER M

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

NATURAL GAS

MCX July

Intra Day

Near Term

CRUDEOIL

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

ENERGY

Technical Levels

R3 3425

R2 3275/3350

R1 3240

Turnaround 3050-3190

S1 3025

S2 2970/2925/2860

S3 2790/2725/2650

Technical Commentary

Prices still stuck in narrow consolidation range with lack of directive moves.

Intraday move largely to be in the range of 3050-3190. A firm move that wins

above or below the mentioned range may set the trend.

Technical Levels135

R3 148/150.70/153

R2 143.10

R1 135.20/138.40

Turnaround 129.30

S1 125/116.40

S2 114.70

S3 110/106.80

Technical Commentary

Intraday move largely to be northbound with an immediate objective of

135.20 then to 138.40 region. But dip below 129.30 may push prices lower.

NICKEL

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 518.30

R2 514.60

R1 507/510

Turnaround 504.50

S1 498.50/494

S2 491.30

S3 488/483.50/475

Technical Commentary

Prices possibly to trade lower in the coming session towards the downside

objective of 498.50 then to SMA level of 494. But rise above 504.50 may dent

our bearish expectation.

Technical Levels

R3 1064/1073

R2 1056

R1 1035/1047

Turnaround 1007

S1 998

S2 986/979

S3 967/954

Technical Commentary

Intraday weakness may sustain only below the Bollinger middle band level of

1007 region. Inability to crack below the same could lift prices higher to

1035 then to Bollinger upper band level of 1047.

Copper

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

Zinc

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

Lead

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 183.10

R2 180/181.40

R1 177.70/178.80

Turnaround 176

S1 173.60/172.90

S2 171.30

S3 170

Technical Levels

R3 152/153.40

R2 151.20

R1 148.90/150

Turnaround 147.70

S1 145.90/144.20

S2 143/141.70

S3 139.70

Technical Commentary

Prices still trading in the previous day’s trading range. In this perplexing

situation, failure to crack above 176 may be seen a corrective downside move

to 173.60 then to 172.90 region.

Technical Commentary

Weakness may continue in the coming session towards the downside objective

of 145.90 initially then to 144.20. Even in this bearish note, rise above 147.70

could lift prices higher.

Aluminium

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 143.30

R2 141.70

R1 140.30/141

Turnaround 139.60

S1 138.50/137.20

S2 136

S3 134.70/133

Technical Commentary

Break above the immediate hindrance of 139.60 could push prices higher. Else

could anticipate a corrective move towards the downside objective of 138.50

then to Bollinger lower band level of 137.20

Buying

sentiment/

Bullish

Selling

sentiment/

Bearish

Neutral/

sideways

S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling

pressure.

R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter

buying pressure.

GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:

CERTIFICATION

I, Krishnaprasad N.B., employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby

certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all

of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.

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nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained

within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the

rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.

Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this

report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity

or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in

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