geographic inequality in social provision and redistribution sarah k. bruch - university of iowa...
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Geographic Inequality in Social Provision and Redistribution
Sarah K. Bruch - University of Iowa
INEQUALITY ACROSS THE US STATES
Inequality WorkshopThe Graduate Center, CUNY June 5, 2015
Motivation
Leveraging variation but also normative concerns.
Subnational variation in social provision and redistribution is a form of inequality.
State inequalities in social provision results in unacceptably different social contracts for economically vulnerable families.
Why do we have subnational variation in provision and redistribution?
Part of the answer is about policy design – the degree of decentralization.
Unequal by Design: Social Provision in the US Welfare State
Sta
ndard
ized
Bro
ad
Cove
rage
Discretion
a
ryTargeted
Key Dimensions of Safety Net Policies
Adequacy of benefits = what recipients receive on average.
Direct expenditures for recipient benefitsProgram caseload or recipients
Adjusted for inflation (in constant $2012)
Adjusted for cost-of-living differences across states.
Value add of measure: vs. max benefit or aggregate spending
Key Dimensions of Safety Net Policies
Inclusiveness of receipt = proportion of potentially needy that get assistance.
Program caseload or recipients Potentially needy population
Potentially needy population estimated with the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (March CPS).
Adjusted for cost of living differences across states.
Value add of measure: vs. caseloads
Defining the State-Level Safety Nets
Include programs in which states have some policymaking authority, or financial or administrative responsibility.
Program Funding• Partial/joint funding of programs & block grant structure • Implication = Variation in availability and stability of
funding
Program Administration• Flexibility in administering programs • Implication = Variation in outreach, application, and
accessibility.
Policymaking Authority• Authority to make rules regarding eligibility and benefits • Implication = Variation in eligibility criteria and benefit
levels.
State-Level Safety Net11 programs that provide support for economically vulnerable families with children.
CA: cash assistance (AFDC/TANF)FS: food assistance (Food Stamps/SNAP)HI: health insurance (Medicaid and SCHIP)CS: child support (enforcement and collections)CC: child care (subsidies – CCBG/CCDF and TANF)ECE: early childhood education (Head Start and public pre-k)UI: unemployment insuranceWA: work support (JOBS w/ AFDC and TANF work support)SS: disability assistance (SSI for disabled children)HS: housing assistance (Section 8)ST: state income taxes (liability threshold and credits)
SNAPSHOT OF CURRENTSOCIAL PROVISION
Adequacy of Safety Net Benefits (2013)
$3,962$3,525
$2,934
$5,018
$7,529
$0
$7,224
$2,301
$13,660
$5,981 $6,153
02
,000
4,0
006
,000
8,0
001
0,00
0Y
ear
ly B
ene
fit in
Dol
lars
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI WA CC HS
Average Yearly Benefit in Median State - 2013
2013 Poverty thresholds:2p/1k = $16,0573p/2k = $18,7694p/2k = $23,624
Inclusiveness of Safety Net Benefits (2013)
.244
.141
.162
1.19
.206
.453
.7
.428
.819
1.21
.194
0 .5 1 1.5
HS
CC
WA
HI
EC
ST
SS
UI
CS
FS
CA
Proportion Potentially Needy Receiving Benefits in Median State - 2013
INEQUALITY ACROSS STATESSOCIAL PROVISION
Inequality in the Adequacy of Safety Net Benefits
02
,000
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10,0
00
Ye
arl
y B
ene
fit in
Dolla
rs
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI CC HS
Adequacy of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Inequality in the Adequacy of Safety Net Benefits
02
,000
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10,0
00
Ye
arl
y B
ene
fit in
Dolla
rs
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI CC HS
Adequacy of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Cash Assistance25th = $3,16275th = $5,020
Inequality in the Adequacy of Safety Net Benefits
02
,000
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10,0
00
Ye
arl
y B
ene
fit in
Dolla
rs
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI CC HS
Adequacy of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Food Assistance25th = $3,07175th = $3,728
Inequality in the Adequacy of Safety Net Benefits
02
,000
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10,0
00
Ye
arl
y B
ene
fit in
Dolla
rs
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI CC HS
Adequacy of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Unempl. Ins.25th = $4,13175th = $5,758
Inequality in the Adequacy of Safety Net Benefits
02
,000
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10,0
00
Ye
arl
y B
ene
fit in
Dolla
rs
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI CC HS
Adequacy of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
State Prek/HS25th = $6,12475th = $8,143
Inequality in the Adequacy of Safety Net Benefits
02
,000
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10,0
00
Ye
arl
y B
ene
fit in
Dolla
rs
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI CC HS
Adequacy of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Child Care25th = $4,62075th = $6,752
Inequality in the Inclusiveness of Safety Net Benefits
0.5
11
.5P
ropo
rtio
n o
f P
ote
ntia
lly N
eed
y P
opu
latio
n R
ece
ivin
g
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI WA CC HS
Inclusiveness of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Inequality in the Inclusiveness of Safety Net Benefits
0.5
11
.5P
ropo
rtio
n o
f P
ote
ntia
lly N
eed
y P
opu
latio
n R
ece
ivin
g
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI WA CC HS
Inclusiveness of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Cash Assistance25th = 0.1075th = 0.25
Inequality in the Inclusiveness of Safety Net Benefits
0.5
11
.5P
ropo
rtio
n o
f P
ote
ntia
lly N
eed
y P
opu
latio
n R
ece
ivin
g
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI WA CC HS
Inclusiveness of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Unempl. Ins.25th = 0.3675th = 0.49
Variation in the Inclusiveness of Safety Net Benefits
0.5
11
.5P
ropo
rtio
n o
f P
ote
ntia
lly N
eed
y P
opu
latio
n R
ece
ivin
g
CA FS CS UI SS ST EC HI WA CC HS
Inclusiveness of Social Provision - Extent of State Variation - 2013
Note: Colored box indicates IQR (25th & 75th percentiles), w/ median highlighted; the length of the whiskers are at 1.5 times the IQR; values outside of that range are represented by dots.
Child Care25th = 0.1175th = 0.21
STATE CHANGE OVER TIMESOCIAL PROVISION
State Change Over Time in Safety Net Benefits
MSALTXLATNSCARKYNCVAFL
WVGAIN
MDNVDEID
MOAZIL
WYCOOKNJSDOHNENMUTMTKSPAIA
ORNDMENYNHMICT
WAWIMNCAMARIVTHI
AK
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y 19
94
Be
ne
fit L
eve
l
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000Benefit Change 1994 to 2013
Absolute Value Change in Cash Assistance Adequacy 1994 to 2013
State Change Over Time in Safety Net Benefits
CTVTMANHNYMNCAVANJMEMDORPARI
WANVNEWIMI
COIDIA
NCKSUTDEIL
MTTNNDFLOHAROK
WYGAAZ
MOIN
SCWVMSALNMTXSDKYLAHI
AK
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y 19
94
Be
ne
fit L
eve
l
2500 3000 3500 4000 4500Benefit Change 1994 to 2013
Absolute Value Change in Food Assistance Adequacy 1994 to 2013
State Change Over Time in Safety Net Benefits
CTVTMANHNYMNCAVANJMEMDORPARI
WANVNEWIMI
COIDIA
NCKSUTDEIL
MTTNNDFLOHAROKWYGAAZMO
INSCWVMSALNMTXSDKYLAAKHI
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y 19
94
Ben
efit Le
vel
2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500Benefit Change 1994 to 2004
Change in Food Assistance Adequacy 1994 to 2004
CTVTMANHNYMNCAVANJMEMDORPARI
WANVNEWIMI
COIDIA
NCKSUTDEIL
MTTNNDFLOHAROKWYGAAZMO
INSCWVMSALNMTXSDKYLAAKHI
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y 19
94
Ben
efit Le
vel
2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500Benefit Change 2004 to 2013
Change in Food Assistance Adequacy 2004 to 2013
State Change Over Time in Safety Net Benefits
IDALARSDTXSCOKMSLANMWYORINAZKSUTMTNDKYNHNVFLVA
WVNECONY
WATNMANCHINJVT
MDPAMNCACTIL
MOIA
WIGAMI
DEOHMERI
AK
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y 19
94
Cove
rag
e
0 .2 .4 .6 .8Coverage Change 1994 to 2013
Absolute Value Change in Cash Assistance Inclusion 1994 to 2013
State Change Over Time in Safety Net Benefits
IDSDNHNY
WYCTMTKS
WASCMACAKYNMAKFLORIN
WIIL
NJNCOKARAZHI
NVUTMNNDMSPAMIALLAIA
MDOHRI
DEWVTNTXVACOVTNEMOMEGA
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y 19
94
Cove
rag
e
.6 .8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6Coverage Change 1994 to 2013
Absolute Value Change in Food Assistance Inclusion 1994 to 2013
State Change Over Time in Safety Net Benefits
IDSDNHNY
WYCTMTKS
WASCMACAKYNMAKFL
ORIN
WIIL
NJNCOKARAZHI
NVUTMNNDMSPAMIALLAIA
MDOHRI
DEWVTNTXVACOVTNEMOMEGA
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y 19
94
Covera
ge
.6 .8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6Coverage Change 1994 to 2004
Change in Food Assistance Inclusion 1994 to 2004
IDSDNHNY
WYCTMTKS
WASCMACAKYNMAKFL
ORIN
WIIL
NJNCOKARAZHI
NVUTMNNDMSPAMIALLAIA
MDOHRI
DEWVTNTXVACOVTNEMOMEGA
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y 19
94
Covera
ge
.6 .8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6Coverage Change 2004 to 2013
Change in Food Assistance Inclusion 2004 to 2013
CURRENT SNAPSHOTREDISTRIBUTION
Data
Annual Social and Economic Supplement (March CPS)
Household level income measures: adjusted for household size (square root of hh size) inflation (CPI-U-RS), and cost of living differences across states (BEA all items RPP).
Dollar figures reported are per equivalized person in the household in 2012 dollars.
Household type: working-aged households (head age 18-64) with children
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5Gini Coefficient
NMCANYIL
MSLAALGAMOTXFLAZ
WAARRINJCTMAKYMENCOKNV
WVMIMTTNIN
PAOROHHIID
VADESCWIMDCOAKKSVTMNNENHSDUTNDIA
WY
Market Inequality and Disposable Inequality for HHs w/ Kids 2012
NDNH
WYIA
NEMNSD
VA
UT
MD
CT
COWI
VT
PAAKMOMA
MEOH
ILNJ
KS
WA
OKMIINHIORID
RIALFL
TNWV
GA
NC
SC
NVTX
MTDE
LA
ARMS
AZ
KY
CANY
NM
.2.3
.4D
isp
osa
ble
Ineq
ualit
y
.3 .35 .4 .45 .5 .55Market Inequality
Market and Disposable Inequality for HHs w/ Kids 2012
No inequality
reduction
0.05 inequality
reduction
0.10 inequality
reduction
0.15 inequality
reduction
WYIA
NDUTSDNHNEMNVTKSAKCOMDWISCDEVAIDHI
OHORPAINTNMTMI
WVNVOKNCMEKYMACTNJRI
ARWAAZFLTX
MOGAALLAMS
ILNYCANM
Sta
tes
Ord
ered
by
Mar
ket I
neq
ualit
y
.3 .35 .4 .45 .5 .55Inequality Reduction
Inequality Reduction among Working-Aged HHs w/ Kids 2012
overall reductionCentralized transfers
Decentralized transfers
State taxes
Federal taxes
0 .1 .2 .3 .4Relative Poverty
NMNYCAKYAZMSARLADEMTTXNVSCNCGA
WVTNFLALRIID
ORHIINMI
OKWAKSNJIL
OHMEMAMOAKPAVTWICOCTMDUTVASDMNNEIA
WYNHND
Market Relative Poverty and Disposable Relative Poverty for HHs w/ Kids 2012
NDNH
WYIANEMNSD
VAUT
MDCTCOWIVT
PAAKMOMAMEOH
ILNJ
KS
WAOKMIINHI
ORID
RIALFLTN
WVGANCSCNVTX
MT
DELAARMS
AZ
KY
CA NYNM
-.1
0.1
.2.3
.4D
isp
osa
ble
Re
lativ
e P
ove
rty
.1 .2 .3 .4Market Relative Poverty
Market and Disposable Relative Poverty for HHs w/ Kids 2012
No poverty
reduction
0.05 poverty
reduction0.10 poverty
reduction
0.15 poverty
reduction
NDNH
WYIA
NEMNSDVAUT
MDCTCOWIVTPAAKMOMAMEOHIL
NJKS
WAOKMIINHI
ORIDRIALFLTN
WVGANCSCNVTXMTDELAARMSAZKYCANYNM
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y M
arke
t Po
vert
y
.1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35Relative Poverty Reduction
Relative Poverty Reduction among Working-Aged HHs w/ Kids 2012
overall reduction Centralized transfers
Decentralized transfers
State taxes
Federal taxes
NHNDUT
WYMDIA
MNCTVAVTNECOSDNJHI
AKWAMAPAIL
WIMEORKSID
OKFLNVDERIIN
OHMOCAMINYTXMTNCGAAZSC
WVALTNARLAKYMSNM
Sta
tes
Ord
ere
d b
y M
arke
t Po
vert
y
.05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3Absolute Poverty Reduction
Absolute Poverty Reduction among Working-Aged HHs w/ Kids 2012
ConclusionsSocial provision in the US is inadequate in terms of benefit levels and the inclusiveness, and that this varies substantially across states.
States start out and end up in different places in terms of levels of poverty and inequality – and these in part reflect policy choices. The decentralized structure of the safety net is one of most crucial and least carefully studied structural features of the U.S. welfare state.
Social provision that is inadequate and unequal hampers our ability to address high and rising levels of inequality, insecurity, and poverty.