generating alpha: michael a. gayed, cfa @pensionpartners predicting volatility & corrections
TRANSCRIPT
GENERATING ALPHA:
Michael A. Gayed, CFA@pensionpartners
PREDICTING VOLATILITY & CORRECTIONS
PENSION PARTNERS, LLCAbout Us
BUT ENOUGH ABOUT US…
Investment manager of mutual funds and separate accounts
Absolute return and equity sector rotation strategies
Quantitative, objective investment process utilizing the principles of intermarket analysis
Open, transparent communication through various writings, media appearances, and social media
For more information, contact us at [email protected]
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INTRODUCTIONA VERY BRIEF Look at Asset Allocation
THE PROBLEM IS…
Single most important determinant of returns
Asset allocation policy drives 90% of portfolio variability (Brinson, Hood, Beebower)
On average, accounts for all of total return (Ibbotson & Kaplan)
Average performance across all investments must equate to the market (Sharpe)
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) – no strategy can consistently outperform buy and hold
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INTRODUCTIONA VERY BRIEF Look at Asset Allocation
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Numerous studies put into question EMH
If markets are not fully efficient, tactical managers can take advantage of anomalies How?
Momentum Gradual Diffusion of Information
VolatilityClustering Seasonality
Inefficient Markets
INTRODUCTIONDEFINING Intermarket Analysis
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• Branch of technical analysis
• Study of asset class and sector relationships
• Relative movement across and within markets can be predictive of on-coming booms, busts, volatility, and economic changes
Ways of using intermarket analysis?
WHY WE’RE HEREA Look at Signals and Strategies
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OUR AGENDAWhat We Will Be Covering Today
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Part I: Part II: Part III:
• Power of Utilities sector
• Volatility timing & seasonality
• Implementation & implications
• Using Treasuries as signal
• Dynamic asset class rebalancing
• Practical ways to allocate
Beta Rotation Tactical Risk Rotation Examples in Recent History
CONCLUSION
BETA ROTATIONPART I
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A look at theoretical performance…
BETA ROTATIONPower of Utilities sector
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One of the best early predictors of the stock market (Edson Gould)
Why? Highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and economic fluctuations
Backtesting to 1926, a simple strategy of rotating either fully into Utilities of fully into the stock market based on rolling 4 week
return significantly outperforms a buy and hold of both
BETA ROTATIONA simple buy and rotate approach
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$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
$1,000,000
$10,000,000
$100,000,000
$1,000,000,000$877,671,986
$34,282,186
$17,820,871
Growth of $10,000: July 1926 - July 2013
Beta Rotation Strategy Market Utilities
BETA ROTATIONA simple buy and rotate approach
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Annualized Returns by Decade
Time Period BRS Market Utilities Outperformance vs. Market # Weeks
July 1926-1929 26.6% 15.3% 28.3% 11.3% 178
1930-1939 3.7% 0.1% -6.4% 3.6% 521
1940-1949 12.6% 9.6% 8.8% 3.0% 522
1950-1959 19.9% 18.0% 14.8% 1.9% 521
1960-1969 10.3% 8.4% 6.5% 2.0% 522
1970-1979 12.9% 6.0% 6.9% 6.9% 522
1980-1989 22.4% 16.7% 18.1% 5.7% 522
1990-1999 19.8% 17.9% 8.6% 1.9% 522
2000-2009 6.0% -0.3% 8.6% 6.3% 521
2010-July 2013 17.3% 14.9% 13.2% 2.4% 187
All Years 13.9% 9.8% 9.0% 4.2% 4538
BETA ROTATIONA simple buy and rotate approach
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1929193219341937193919421944194719491952195419571959196219641967196919721974197719791982198419871989199219941997199920022004200720092012
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Rolling 3-Year Outperformance (Beta Rotation Strategy - Market)
BETA ROTATIONA simple buy and rotate approach
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But that’s not all…
Annualized Return Divided by Annualized VolatilityTime Period BRS Market BRS-Market
1926-1929 1.16 0.84 0.32
1930-1939 0.11 0.00 0.11
1940-1949 0.36 0.28 0.09
1950-1959 2.39 1.79 0.60
1960-1969 1.05 0.75 0.30
1970-1979 0.89 0.37 0.52
1980-1989 1.67 1.07 0.60
1990-1999 1.70 1.36 0.33
2000-2009 0.30 -0.02 0.32
2010-2013 1.19 0.88 0.31
All Years 0.80 0.56 0.24
BETA ROTATIONViolating Timing
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Real strength of Utilities is as a signal on volatility
Table 5: Annualized Volatility
Time Period Vol of Market when BRS is in Utilities
Vol of Market when BRS is in Market Differential
July 1926 - 1935 26.1% 31.0% -4.9%
1936-1962 14.6% 14.8% -0.1%
1963-1978 16.4% 11.2% 5.2%
1979-1992 16.0% 13.7% 2.3%
1993 - July 2013 20.3% 15.1% 5.2%
1963 - July 2013 18.0% 13.6% 4.4%
1936 - July 2013 16.8% 14.0% 2.8%
All Years 18.1% 16.6% 1.5%
BETA ROTATIONVolatility timing
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But what about seasonality?
Utilities Strength vs. High VIX/VIX Spikes (Jan 1990 - July 2013)
Criteria # Weeks % of Time BRS in Utilities
% of Time in Utilities Overall Differential
Top 1% of VIX Values (Above 49.3) 12 83.3% 48.5% 34.8%
Top 5% of VIX Values (Above 34.7) 61 58.1% 48.5% 9.6%
Top 10% of VIX Values (Above 29.3) 123 61.0% 48.5% 12.5%
Top 1% of VIX Weekly % Changes (>40.0%) 12 58.3% 48.5% 9.8%
Top 5% of VIX Weekly % Changes (>21.7%) 61 61.3% 48.5% 12.8%
Top 10% of VIX Weekly % Changes (>15.5%) 123 53.7% 48.5% 5.2%
Tail event conditions ARE predictable
BETA ROTATIONSell in May, Rotate Away?
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But that’s not all…
Table 8: Sell in May and Rotate Away?Time Period Utilities Market BRS % of Time in Utilities
Jan 1.4% 1.2% 1.9% 58.1%Feb 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 49.3%Mar 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 40.3%Apr 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 45.8%May 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 44.4%Jun 1.6% 1.0% 1.4% 53.4%Jul 0.9% 0.8% 1.2% 55.3%
Aug 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 52.5%Sep -0.5% -0.7% 0.0% 46.6%Oct 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 56.6%Nov 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 50.7%Dec 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 43.0%
Nov-Apr 5.5% 6.9% 8.4% 47.8%May-Oct 4.0% 3.3% 5.3% 51.5%Overall 9.7% 10.4% 14.2% 49.7%
BETA ROTATIONSell in May, Rotate Away?
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BETA ROTATIONImplementation
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More importantly…
Possible to execute with Exchange Traded Funds
BETA ROTATIONImplications on equities
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As fiduciaries, nearly all asset allocators hold equities for clients
Identifying high risk periods of increased volatility minimizes emotional response
Reducing beta exposure, leverage, and positioning more conservatively might enhance equity returns
But what about outside of equities?
TACTICAL RISK ROTATIONPART II
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TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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Using Treasuries as signal
A look at theoretical performance…
Utilities useful for within equity allocation
Treasuries helpful for bond/stock asset allocation
Backtesting to 1977, a simple strategy that overweights bonds relative to stocks and vice-versa when long duration Treasuries
on month-over-month basis outperforms intermediate produces stronger risk-adjusted returns
Total return long duration Treasuries relative to intermediate provides clues on economy and risk
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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All-In Strategy – 100% Treasuries or 100% Stocks
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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All-In Strategy – 100% Treasuries or 100% Stocks
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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All-In Strategy – 100% Treasuries or 100% Stocks
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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All-In Strategy – 100% Treasuries or 100% Stocks
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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All-In Strategy – 100% Treasuries or 100% Stocks
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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All-In Strategy – 100% Treasuries or 100% Stocks
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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All-In Strategy – 100% Treasuries or 100% Stocks
Instead of 100% to Treasuries…
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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Dynamic Risk Rebalancing
What’s the easiest way of doing this?
Rule:
Overweight bonds when total return long duration outperforms intermediate duration in prior month
TACTICAL RISK ROTATION
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Practical ways to implement
Numerous bond and stock mutual funds/ETFs can be used to over/underweight
The question of when to deviate from target weights can be answered by tracking total return behavior of Treasury ETFs
Identifying periods where bonds are likely to outperform stocks can minimize portfolio drawdowns
Helps answer when to buy, when to sell.
EXAMPLES IN RECENT HISTORYPART III
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EXAMPLES IN RECENT HISTORY
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2010: Flash Crash
EXAMPLES IN RECENT HISTORY
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2011: Summer Crash
EXAMPLES IN RECENT HISTORY
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2012: Two Mini-Corrections
EXAMPLES IN RECENT HISTORY
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2013: False Positives
EXAMPLES IN RECENT HISTORY
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2014: A defensive sector posture defines January-April
Utilities top performing sector YTD
Broad averages did NOT correct, nor did volatility meaningfully
increase
BUT high beta/high momentum names did crack following
leadership
Positioning into defensive/low beta sectors ended up
outperforming aggressive/high beta ones
1 2 3 4
EXAMPLES IN RECENT HISTORY
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2014: No Large-Cap Correction, But…
EXAMPLES IN RECENT HISTORY
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2014: Small-Cap Correction
CONCLUSION
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Intermarket analysis can enhance asset allocation
Within equities, tracking behavior of Utilities can be an early predictor of on-coming volatility
Treasury total return behavior on a month-over-month basis can guide portfolio tilts when addressing fixed income/stock weightings
To generate alpha, follow Utilities and Treasuries.
Intermarket analysis which tracks relationships that lead can result in better risk management, and long-term alpha
QUESTIONS?
Happy to answer any questions you may have
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
http://www.pensionpartners.com/ [email protected]