gen barry r. mccaffrey, usa (ret.) 16 april 2010 combating weapons of mass destruction presentation...

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) 16 April 2010

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTIONDESTRUCTION

Presentation to:Presentation to:Joint Senior Leaders’ CourseJoint Senior Leaders’ Course

U.S. Army Maneuver Support Center of U.S. Army Maneuver Support Center of ExcellenceExcellence

April 16, 2010April 16, 2010

BARRY R. McCAFFREYBARRY R. McCAFFREYGENERAL, USA (RETIRED) GENERAL, USA (RETIRED)

Adjunct Professor of International Affairs Adjunct Professor of International Affairs United States Military AcademyUnited States Military Academy

2900 South Quincy Street, Suite 300AArlington, VA [email protected] 1 of 13



Barry McCaffrey served in the United States Army for 32 years and retired as a four-star General. At retirement, he was the most highly decorated serving General, having been awarded three Purple Heart medals (wounded in combat three times), two Distinguished Service Crosses (the nation’s second highest award for valor) and two Silver Stars for valor.

For five years after leaving the military, General McCaffrey served as the Director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP). Upon leaving government service in 2001, he served as the Bradley Distinguished Professor of International Security Studies for five years at the United States Military Academy at West Point, NY. He continues as an Adjunct Professor of International Affairs.

In October 2004, General McCaffrey was elected by the Board of Directors of HNTB Corporation (www.hntb.com) where he also serves as the chairman for the company’s federal business unit. HNTB Corporation is an employee-owned infrastructure firm known and respected for its work in transportation, tolls, bridges, aviation, rail, architecture and urban design and planning for federal, state and municipal clients.

Currently, General McCaffrey is President of his own consulting firm based in Arlington, Virginia www.mccaffreyassociates.com. He also serves as a national security and terrorism analyst for NBC News.

General McCaffrey graduated from Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass., in 1960; and from West Point with a BS in 1964. He earned a master's degree in American Government from American University and attended the Harvard University National Security Program as well as the Business School Executive Education Program.

General McCaffrey is married to Jill Ann McCaffrey, with whom he has three children and six grandchildren. Their son, Colonel Sean McCaffrey, is currently serving as an Army Infantry Brigade Commander at Ft. Benning, GA.

Biography of General Biography of General Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (RET.)Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (RET.)

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The Eight Principle Challenges The Eight Principle Challenges to Global Securityto Global Security

• The proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.

• Regional war among nation states.

• Civil war and failed states.

• International terrorism.

• The global recession and poverty.

• International crime and drug cartels.

• Humanitarian crisis/refugees.

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Global Tools to Shape the Global Tools to Shape the International EnvironmentInternational Environment

• Diplomacy is under-resourced and poorly organized.

• International Development Assistance lacks money and leadership.

• Arms Control is more effective than air attacks.

• International Law Enforcement Cooperation is a major success.

• Nonproliferation Initiatives lack a modern framework and international leadership.

• Shaping World Opinion is a function of sound policy and collective diplomacy -- not slick public relations.

• International Covert Action and Intelligence Collection has improved enormously with new resources and courageous dedication by the global intelligence community.

• UN/NATO/US Military Intervention must be the tool of last resort. When employed it must be violent, focused on clear objectives, and fully integrated with other elements of national power.

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• Protecting America’s critical infrastructure and key assets is a formidable challenge. Our open and technologically complex society presents a huge array of targets.

• The macro numbers are enormous: 87,000 communities; 1,800 federal reservoirs; 2,800 power plants and 104 commercial nuclear power plants; 5,000 airports; 120,000 miles of railroads; 590,000 bridges; 2 million miles of pipeline; 80,000 dams.

• 85% of our critical infrastructure is privately held. Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) must be a public-private enterprise. Owner-operators must protect their resources.

• It is impossible to defend everything against every conceivable threat. We must move beyond gates, guards, and guns. We need to design security features into new infrastructure. We need new technology to protect potentially high-casualty targets.

• Federal Government support is vital in the transportation sector. Transportation choke points are a particular concern. We must develop a coordinated mechanism for assessing vulnerabilities and evaluating risk mitigation activities.

Protecting US Critical InfrastructureProtecting US Critical Infrastructure

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• Nukes at one extreme – WWI vintage mustard agent at other extreme. (Anthrax letters – 6 deaths and 22 cases of illness).

• Toxicology / Bio-warfare or Bio-Terrorism?– Chemical: “I can kill you with anything – let me choose the dose.” (LD50 of caffeine vs. VX

Agent)– Classical chemical warfare agents are still effective – we’re well prepared but ‘inexperienced’.– Biological: with any unusual or emerging infectious disease --initial diagnosis will be very

difficult.

• WWI Influenza epidemic– 1918 bug – 100 million dead in three waves.– Really hot ones tend to burn themselves out (you die before you shed the virus).– We have re-constructed 1918 influenza, and Nature keeps shuffling influenza’s genes.

• Bio Warfare on battlefield against prepared US troops operationally inefficient – good bio-detectors and delayed impact; However – excellent terrorist weapon.

– (Anthrax, plague, tularemia, etc. all easy to grow in quantity)

• Bio Proliferation really hard to detect.– Dual use – bacteria fermentation (benign spores in Tide detergent).– “Gene splicing” and “Molecular biology” now at high school level.– We have made synthetic polio from scratch.

• Novel chemicals tough to control/detect. (circumvent CWC and Australia Group controls).

• Forensics – we can tell you what it is – but not who made it.

Thinking About Weapons Thinking About Weapons of Mass Pandemoniumof Mass Pandemonium

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Nuclear Threat: Nuclear Threat: Status of World Nuclear ForcesStatus of World Nuclear Forces

COUNTRY• Russia• United States• France• China• United Kingdom• Israel• Pakistan• India• North Korea

TOTAL:

TOTAL INVENTORY12,0009,40030024018580

70-9060-80<10

~22,300

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• Global stocks exceed 250 tons of civil plutonium – enough for tens of thousands of nuclear weapons.

• No agreement between US and Russia concerning disposition of 34 metric tons of plutonium from decommissioned nuclear weapons.

• Each year – world produces enough civil plutonium to produce 1000+ nuclear devices.

• Non-weapons use of HEU is 4000 kilograms per year.

• 530 kilograms of HEU in Mexico, South Africa, Serbia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc.

• 3.5 million pounds of HEU and 1.1 million pounds of plutonium in 40 countries.

• 20 kilograms of HEU will produce a nuclear device.

The Nuclear Threat: Fissile MaterialThe Nuclear Threat: Fissile Material

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• 71,000+ metric tons of chemical agent in the world.– 40,886 metric tons (57.43%) of world stockpile verifiably

destroyed.– 3.93 million (45.33%) of 8.67 million chemical munitions and

containers covered by the CWC have been verifiably destroyed.

• If you can make good beer – you can make low stability, poorly weaponized nerve agent or mustard agent.

• The US Armed Forces can operate with complete effectiveness under active chemical attack.

• Chemical attack by non-state actors against an unprotected, unwarned, confined population will be a disaster.

The Chemical ThreatThe Chemical Threat

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• Credibility of US “Nuclear umbrella” for 30 allied nations -- Administration objective of a “nuclear free world”. (April 2009 Prague speech)

• US Nukes all more than 20 years old.

• US Nuclear physical infrastructure well over 60 years old.

• No testing since 1992. (1,054 tests 1945-1992)

• Congress killed Reliable Replacement Warhead Program in 2007.

• Life extension of nuclear warheads has focus on “refurbishment” or “Reuse” only. “Replacement” (previously tested designs) only as last resort with presidential approval.

• Nuclear Policy Review appeared to disengage nuclear retaliation from chemical or biological attack.

• Prague Treaty April 2010 with Russia – no application to North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, India.

US Nuclear Deterrence at RiskUS Nuclear Deterrence at Risk

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• Verifiable treaties with strong international support, monitoring, and reporting.

• Strong international law enforcement and intelligence agency cooperation.

• Strong international economic sanctions.

• A deployed, continuously modernized strategic and tactical US anti-missile defense system.– Airborne laser – boost phase– Aegis Naval missile – mid-course– ABM – end phase

• A robust, protected, modernized US strategic and tactical nuclear strike capability accompanied by the declaratory political will to employ a retaliatory response. (USAF strike aircraft and USN submarine force.)

Maintaining Credible Maintaining Credible United States WMD Deterrence United States WMD Deterrence

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• The US will be attacked by a non-state actor employing radiological devices or biological agents in the coming decade.

• Eventually our nuclear deterrence will lack technical credibility.

• There is a small probability (5%) of employment of a low yield nuclear device against an American city in the coming 50 years.

• There is a modest probability (20%) of employment of nuclear weapons by state actors in the coming 50 years.

• We need a US National Guard force of 600,000 troops to respond to CONUS WMD attack. (Domestic military universal service).

– WMD reconnaissance and decontamination.– Military police and motorized infantry.– Field medical hospitals.– Engineer heavy construction.– Logistics.– USAF C17 and C130 airlift.– US Army helicopter lift.– US Joint tactical and strategic communications capability.– US military command and control (deployable TOC’s).

Right of Boom – Where is the Fear?Right of Boom – Where is the Fear?

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• 1st: Non-proliferational treaties.

• 2nd: Strengthen:– The CIA– The Customs and Border Protection Agency– The US Marshal Service– The FBI– The Coast Guard– The Public Health Service– The USAID– The USIA

• 3rd: Build the National Guard we need for homeland security and defense.

Looking Toward the FutureLooking Toward the Future

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gen barry r. mccaffrey, usa (ret.) 16 april 2010 combating weapons of mass destruction presentation...

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