gecafs dss inaugural workshop jan 11, 2005 steve sonka university of illinois
TRANSCRIPT
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GECAFS DSS Inaugural Workshop
Jan 11, 2005
Steve Sonka
University of Illinois
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Agenda• Philosophy
• Demonstration
• A Case Study– Results, – Effects, and – Lessons
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Philosophy (1)• Factors in the “external environment”
– Government policies– Technology– Biogeophysical
• Human decision making processes are challenged when decisions involve– Time lags (between decision and outcome)– Uncertainty– Causal ambiguity
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Philosophy (2)
• Strategic versus operating choices, – Climate versus weather– Operating choices
• Routine• DSS’s enhance
– Strategic choices• Humans & DSS’s tend to struggle
• Effective DSS’s for strategic choice– As much to generate better questions– As to provide answers
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Philosophy (3)Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
• DSS’s inform, don’t make decisions
• Decision will come from some group process
• DSS not likely to be “used” by decision maker
• Credibility must be earned, but not by use
• Decision maker(s) won’t be able to give enough attention
• Decision makers– Can describe problems/issues/concern– DSS developer is responsible for design
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Visualization Principles:Tufte
• Escape the Flatland (of 2 dimensions)
• Color
• Compared to what ?
• Time as the 4th dimension
• Macro / micro perspectives
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The Case Study• Client
– Illinois Soybean Program Operating Board– NGO– Mission components
• Market development• Research
• Charge: Help us better anticipate the future global need for protein– Longer term perspective– Enhance commonality of perspective– Improve communication across sector
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The Dynamics of Protein and Malnutrition
• Charge from soybean industry leaders: Help us better anticipate the future global need for protein– Longer term– Commonality of perspective– Accurate, science-based methods
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The Protein Consumption Dynamics (PCD) Model
• The PCD model– A system dynamics simulation engine
(Powersim)– A visualization delivery tool (In3D)
• Driving forces in the simulation– Population– Total income– Diet choices relative to per capita income
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Relationships Underlyingthe PCD Model
TotalAppetite
Per CapitaAppetite
Total Population
Total Income
Cultural Influences
Income DistributionPer Capita Proportion
Malnourished
TotalMalnourished
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Commodities of Interest
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Regional Aggregations
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Move to Visualization
• Fisher, D. K. 2000. Assessing how information affects cognitive maps of strategic issues. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation. University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
• Fisher, D. K., S. T. Sonka, and R. E. Westgren. "Strategic Decision Making in the Quasi-Government Sector: The Illinois Soybean Program Operating Board" International Journal of Organization Theory and Behavior, 7(2004):42-65.
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Effects
• Quasi – experimental measurements
• Anecdotal interpretation of actual decisions
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Before After
Population
Income
Malnutrition
Meeting demand
New markets
Ranking of Strategic Issues:Before and After Intervention
Ran
k: (
1 is
MO
ST
impo
rtan
t)
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Before After
Population
Income
Malnutrition
Meeting demand
New markets
Marketing
Soy foods
Global
Health benefits
Ranking of Strategic Issues:Before and After Intervention
Ran
k: (
1 is
MO
ST
impo
rtan
t)
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Before After
Population
Income
Malnutrition
Meeting demand
New markets
Marketing
Soy foods
Global
Health benefits
New uses
Biotech acceptance
Soybean price
GMOs
Ranking of Strategic Issues:Before and After Intervention
Ran
k: (
1 is
MO
ST
impo
rtan
t)
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Implications / Effects• Existing marketing / promotion skills and
resources are aligned with past, not the future (geography and practices)
• Global income growth is #1 strategic issue (international trade policy)
• Efforts to reduce malnutrition should be on the strategic agenda for human and business reasons (World Initiative for Soy in Human Health)
• Development of Version 2 funded
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Lessons• Strategic choices / DSSs have distinctive
characteristics
• Philosophy: goal is better conversation
• Visualization: Tufte principles are helpful
• Case study: – intervention and– the IT-based tools