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PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Company Intelligence Report © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

REFERENCE CODE GDGE0658V | PUBLICATION DATE MARCH 2014

PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED,

COMPANY INTELLIGENCE REPORT




Executive Summary

PTTEP, Key Valuation Metrics, 2013

Stock exchange SET

Stock symbol PTTEP

Current share price (THB (US$)/share) as of March 31, 2014

157.0 (4.8)

Target price (THB (US$)/share) xxx(xx)

2013 revenue (THB bil) 224.9

Market capitalization of class a (THB bil) as of December 31, 2014

xxx

Estimated enterprise value (THB bil) xx

52-week high/low (THB (US$)/share) xxx (xx) / xxx (xx)

Source: GlobalData; Google Finance, 2014a

PTTEP vs. Peer Group, Operational Performance, 2012

Parameters PTTEP Peer average*

Proved reserves (mmboe) xxx xxx

Oil/gas share in total proved reserves (%)

xxx xxx

Total production (mmboe) xxx xxx

Lifting cost (US$ per boe), three-year xxx xxx

Net-back (US$ per boe), three-year xxx xxx

Recycle ratio, three-year xxx xxx

Oil and gas F&D cost per boe, three-year

xxx xxx

Reserve replacement cost (US$ per boe), annual

xxx xxx

Reserve life index xxx xxx

Development costs (US$ bil) xxx xxx

Acquisition costs (US$ bil) xxx xxx

boe: barrels of oil equivalent; mmboe: million barrels of oil equivalent; F&D: Finding and Development *Peers include Chevron Corporation, Eni S.p.A., Exxon Mobil Corporation, BP p.l.c., Royal Dutch Shell plc and Lukoil Oil Company.

Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack, Advanced Company Operational and Financial Benchmarking database [Accessed on March 12, 2014]

Strengthening Upstream Operations and Diversify Asset Portfolio Geographically

Upcoming Projects Lead the Company’s Production Growth Plan – PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP)’s primary objective is to reach a production capacity of xxx thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboed) by 2020. The company’s oil and natural gas production growth rate showed an increasing trend over the 2009–2013 period, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of xx%. The company currently has 20 production assets in its portfolio, including 14 in Thailand. The company’s major producing domestic assets include the S1, Bongkot, Arthit and Malaysia–Thailand Joint Development Area (MTJDA) projects. The production growth seen during 2012–2013 can be attributed primarily to the Bongkot, Vietnam 16-1, S1 and PTTEP Australasia projects, while the growth during the 2009–2010 period can be attributed to the MTJDA B17 project and the Bongkot and Arthit North projects. The key strategy to achieve the production level target is to maintain a production plateau in domestic projects through exploration, appraisal and development activities, growth from international projects through start-ups and ramp-ups, and investment in prospective and producing assets in new regions. PTTEP’s upcoming projects will make substantial contributions to the company’s overall production.

Organic and Inorganic Activities to Support Geographical Diversification

PTTEP’s overseas acquisitions will help the company to expand its operations into international markets, which are currently skewed towards Thailand. Major acquisitions by the company in the recent past include the acquisition of a stake in Natuna Sea A, a producing gas field in Indonesia in 2013, and the acquisition of Cove Energy plc, a company that holds oil and gas assets in Mozambique and Kenya, both in 2012. The company will also achieve geographical diversification through the development of its

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Company Intelligence Report 3 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.



Executive Summary

projects in Australia, Myanmar and Algeria, in 2014 and beyond. PTTEP is focusing on the development of its projects, including the Montara project, which is located in the Bonaparte Basin in the Northern Territory, Australia; the Zawtika project in Myanmar; blocks 433A and 416B in Algeria; the 16-1 project in Vietnam, and the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project in Offshore Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin, in Mozambique.

Strategic Agreements for Restructuring Development Plans

PTTEP entered into various strategic agreements in 2012 and 2013 that will assist the company in restructuring its upstream asset portfolio and related development plans. One of the major transactions entered by PTTEP in recent past include Kai Kos Dehseh (KKD) asset swap transaction, where it relinquished its 40% interest in the Leismer and Corner development projects for a 60% stake in the Thornbury, Hangingstone and South Leismer (THSL) area of the KKD project area. This asset swap transaction is expected to provide PTTEP benefits like the elimination of losses arising from KKD project operations, delayed investments and flexibility in scheduling development plans, among other things. Moreover, in 2013, the PTTEP partnered some of the major players in the industry to accelerate the development of its assets, including M3 and M11 projects in Myanmar. In addition, the company also secured exploration rights for MD-7 and MD-8 projects in Myanmar, securing additional resources for the company.




Executive Summary

PTTEP, Key Production Data, 2010–2013

Parameter Unit 2010 2011 2012 2013

Crude oil and liquids

mmbbl xxx xxx xxx xxx

Natural gas bcf xxx xxx xxx xxx

Total production mmboe xxx xxx xxx xxx

Oil as % of total production*

% xxx xxx xxx xxx

mmbbl: million barrels of oil; bcf: billion cubic feet Note: 1 mmboe = 1 bcf/6 Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack, Advanced Company Operational and Financial Benchmarking [Accessed on March 12, 2014]

PTTEP, Key Cost per boe, 2010–2013

Parameter Unit 2010 2011 2012 2013

F&D cost per boe, three-year US$/boe

xxx xxx xxx xxx

Reserve replacement cost per boe, three-year

US$/boe

xxx xxx xxx xxx

Oil and gas finding cost per boe, three-year

US$/boe

xxx xxx xxx xxx

Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack, Advanced Company Operational and Financial Benchmarking [Accessed on March 12, 2014]

PTTEP, Key Valuation Metrics, 2010–2013

Parameter Unit 2010 2011 2012 2013

EV/Reserves US$/boe 17.3 xxx xxx xxx

EV/Production US$/boe 68,212 xxx xxx xxx

EV/DACF X 6.6 xxx xxx xxx

EV/EBITDA X 5.8 xxx xxx xxx

EV: Enterprise Value; DACF: Debt-Adjusted Cash Flow; EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization


PTTEP, Key Production Data, 2010–2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

02040

6080

100120

140

2010 2011 2012 2013

Prod

uctio

n (b

cf)

Prod

uctio

n (m

mbo

e)

Crude oil and liquids Total production Natural gas (RHS)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

02040

6080

100120

140

2010 2011 2012 2013

Prod

uctio

n (b

cf)

Prod

uctio

n (m

mbo

e)

Crude oil and liquids Total production Natural gas (RHS) RHS: Right Hand Side Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack, Advanced Company Operational and Financial Benchmarking [Accessed on March 12, 2014]

PTTEP, Key Cost per boe, 2010–2013

0

50

100

2010 2011 2012 2013

US$/

boe

F&D cost per boe, three-yearReserve replacement cost per boe, three-yearOil and gas finding cost per boe, three-year


PTTEP, Key Valuation Metrics, 2010–2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

2010 2011 2012 2013

(US$

/boe

)

X

EV/DACF EV/EBITDA EV/1P reserves





Executive Summary

PTTEP, Key Reserves and Reserves Metrics, 2010–2013

Parameter Unit 2010 2011 2012 2013

Proved crude oil reserves

mmbbl xxx xxx xxx xxx

Proved natural gas reserves

bcf xxx xxx xxx xxx

Proved total oil and gas reserves

mmboe xxx xxx xxx xxx

Oil as % of total reserves

% xxx xxx xxx xxx


PTTEP, Key Reserves and Reserves Metrics, 2010–2013

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2011 2012 2013

bcf

mm

boe

Proved crude oil reserves (mmbbl)Proved total oil and gas reserves (mmboe)Proved natural gas reserves (bcf)


PTTEP, Result of Oil and Gas Operations per boe, 2010–2013

-

0.6

1.2

1.8

-

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013

Rec

yle

ratio

(X

)

US

$/bo

e

Oil and gas revenue per boe Lifting cost per boe, three-year

Net-back per boe, three-year Recycle ratio, three-year


PTTEP, Result of Oil and Gas Operations per boe, 2010–2013

Parameter Unit 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oil and gas revenue per boe

US$/boe xxx xxx xxx xxx

Lifting cost per boe, three-year


Net-back per boe, three-year


Recycle ratio, three-year

% xxx xxx xxx xxx

Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack, Companies Operational and Financial Database [Accessed on March 12, 2014]




Table of Contents

Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................... 6

1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 10

1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 14

2 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Company Overview ...................... 21

3 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Key Highlights .............................. 26

3.1 Near-term Projects to Drive Production Growth ................................................................... 26

3.2 Extensive Drilling Activities to Strengthen Upstream Assets Portfolio .................................. 28

3.3 Restructuring of Overseas Asset Portfolio through Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions 30

3.4 Significant Focus on Southeast Asia to Drive Growth .......................................................... 30

4 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, SWOT Analysis ............................ 32

4.1 Strengths ............................................................................................................................ 32

4.1.1 Increasing Production Levels .......................................................................................... 32

4.1.2 Wide Geographic Presence and Immense Resource Base ............................................. 33

4.1.3 Relatively High Exploration Drilling Success Ratio .......................................................... 34

4.1.4 Prominent Profit Margins and Salubrious (Healthy) Operating Cash Flows ..................... 36

4.2 Weaknesses ....................................................................................................................... 40

4.2.1 Declining Reserve Replacement Ratio Resulting in Slumping Reserve Life Index .......... 40

4.2.2 Heavy Dependence on Natural Gas................................................................................ 41

4.3 Opportunities ...................................................................................................................... 42

4.3.1 New Investment Opportunities with Primary Focus on Acquisition and Development of Liquid-rich Assets ........................................................................................................... 42

4.3.2 Development of Overseas Oil and Gas Resources – Strategic Agreements to Accelerate Development of Assets ................................................................................................... 42

4.4 Threats................................................................................................................................ 44

4.4.1 High Dependence on Upcoming Projects Heighten Risk and may Impact Cash Flows ... 44

5 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Goals and Strategies .................... 45

5.1 Production Target of 600 Thousand Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Day by 2020 .................. 45




Table of Contents

5.2 Enhance Proved Reserves life ............................................................................................ 46

5.3 Diversify Operations and Strengthen Worldwide Position .................................................... 48

6 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploration and Development Overview ................................................................................................................................. 49

6.1 Thailand .............................................................................................................................. 58

6.1.1 A4/48 and 5/48 Project ................................................................................................... 59

6.1.2 G9/43 Project .................................................................................................................. 60

6.1.3 L21/48 and L28/48 .......................................................................................................... 60

6.1.4 L22/43 Project ................................................................................................................ 60

6.1.5 L53/43 and L54/43 Project .............................................................................................. 60

6.1.6 Arthit Project ................................................................................................................... 61

6.1.7 B6/27 Project .................................................................................................................. 61

6.1.8 B8/32 and 9A Project ...................................................................................................... 61

6.1.9 Bongkot Project .............................................................................................................. 61

6.1.10 Contract 3 (Unocal III) Project ......................................................................................... 62

6.1.11 Contract 4 (Pailin) Project ............................................................................................... 62

6.1.12 G4/43 Project .................................................................................................................. 62

6.1.13 MTJDA Project ............................................................................................................... 62

6.1.14 PTTEP 1 Project ............................................................................................................. 62

6.1.15 S1 Project ....................................................................................................................... 63

6.1.16 Sinphuhorm Project ........................................................................................................ 63

6.2 Southeast Asia .................................................................................................................... 63

6.2.1 Union of Myanmar .......................................................................................................... 63

6.2.2 Vietnam .......................................................................................................................... 66

6.2.3 Indonesia ........................................................................................................................ 68

6.2.4 Cambodia ....................................................................................................................... 69

6.3 North America ..................................................................................................................... 69

6.3.1 Canada ........................................................................................................................... 69




Table of Contents

6.4 Middle East and Africa ........................................................................................................ 69

6.4.1 Algeria ............................................................................................................................ 69

6.4.2 Mozambique ................................................................................................................... 70

6.4.3 Kenya ............................................................................................................................. 71

6.4.4 Oman.............................................................................................................................. 72

6.5 Australasia .......................................................................................................................... 72

6.5.1 Australia ......................................................................................................................... 72

7 Capital Expenditure ................................................................................................................. 74

7.1 Costs Incurred..................................................................................................................... 77

8 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Production Overview .................... 81

8.1 Production Profile ................................................................................................................ 81

8.2 Assets Portfolio ................................................................................................................... 85

8.2.1 Thailand .......................................................................................................................... 85

8.2.2 Myanmar ........................................................................................................................ 89

8.2.3 Vietnam .......................................................................................................................... 89

8.2.4 Oman.............................................................................................................................. 90

8.2.5 Australia ......................................................................................................................... 90

8.2.6 Canada ........................................................................................................................... 90

8.2.7 Indonesia ........................................................................................................................ 90

9 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Forecast Production and Financial Statements .............................................................................................................................. 92

9.1 Income Statement (2011–2018) .......................................................................................... 93

9.2 Balance Sheet (2011–2018)................................................................................................ 95

9.3 Cash Flow Statement (2011–2018) ..................................................................................... 97

10 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Valuation ...................................... 98

10.1 Net Asset Value .................................................................................................................. 98

11 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Peer Comparison ....................... 100

11.1 Share Price Performance .................................................................................................. 100




Table of Contents

11.2 Operational and Financial Performance ............................................................................ 101

11.3 Key Financial and Operational Ratio ................................................................................. 106

12 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Production and Reserves Trends109

12.1 Total Oil and Gas, Reserves and Production .................................................................... 109

12.1.1 Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production and Reserves Trend, 2009-2013 ............. 109

12.1.2 Total Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production and Reserves By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ..................................................................................................................................... 111

12.1.3 Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Changes, 2009-2013 ................................... 112

12.2 Crude Oil/Liquids Production and Reserve ........................................................................ 114

12.2.1 Crude Oil/Liquids Production and Reserve Trend, 2009-2013 ...................................... 114

12.2.2 Crude Oil Production and Reserves By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ............................ 115

12.2.3 Crude Oil/Liquids Reserve Changes, 2009-2013 .......................................................... 116

12.3 Natural Gas Production and Reserve ................................................................................ 118

12.3.1 Natural Gas Production and Reserve Trend, 2009-2013............................................... 118

12.3.2 Natural Gas Production and Reserves, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ....................... 119

12.3.3 Natural Gas Reserve Changes, 2009-2013 .................................................................. 120

12.4 Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves Life Index ....................................................... 122

12.4.1 Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves Life Index, 2009-2013 ................................ 122

12.4.2 Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves Life Index, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 123

13 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, E&P Costs Trends ...................... 126

13.1 Allocation of the Upstream Capital Expenditure ................................................................ 126

13.1.1 Upstream Capital Expenditure, 2009-2013 ................................................................... 126

13.1.2 Acquisition Costs By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ......................................................... 128

13.1.3 Exploration and Development Costs, By Country/Region, 2009-2013........................... 130

13.2 Oil and Gas Cost Per boe, US$/boe .................................................................................. 132

13.2.1 Oil and Gas Cost Per boe, US$/boe, 2009-2013 .......................................................... 132

13.2.2 Oil and Gas Cost Per boe, US$/boe, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ........................... 134

14 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Reserve Replacement Ratio ....... 139




Table of Contents

14.1 Oil and Gas Production Replacement Ratio ...................................................................... 139

14.1.1 Oil and Gas Production Replacement Ratio, 2009-2013 ............................................... 139

14.1.2 Oil and Gas Production Replacement Ratio, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ............... 141

15 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Results of Oil & Gas Operations Trend..................................................................................................................................... 148

15.1 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses ................................................................................ 148

15.1.1 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, 2009-2013 ......................................................... 148

15.1.2 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 .......................... 150

15.2 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, Per boe .................................................................. 158

15.2.1 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, By boe, 2009-2013 ............................................ 158

15.2.2 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses Per boe, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ............ 159

15.3 Oil and Gas Performance Metrics ..................................................................................... 167

15.4 Well Statistics.................................................................................................................... 168

15.4.1 Producible Oil and Gas Well, 2009-2013 ...................................................................... 168

15.4.2 Producible Oil and Gas Well, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ....................................... 170

15.4.3 Exploration and Development Wells Drilled, 2009-2013................................................ 178

15.4.4 Exploration and Development Wells Drilled, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ................ 180

16 Appendix ............................................................................................................................... 182

16.1 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 182

16.2 Sources............................................................................................................................. 185

16.3 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 187

16.3.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 187

16.3.2 Secondary Research .................................................................................................... 187

16.3.3 Primary Research ......................................................................................................... 188

16.4 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 189

1.1 List of Tables Table 1: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Major Near-term Growth Projects, 2013 .. 28




Table of Contents

Table 2: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Thailand, Exploration and Development Blocks and Interest, 2013 ............................................................................................................ 58

Table 3: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Myanmar, Exploration and Development Blocks and Interest (%), 2013...................................................................................................... 64

Table 4: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Vietnam, Exploration and Development Blocks and Interest (%), 2013...................................................................................................... 66

Table 5: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Indonesia, Exploration and Development Blocks and Interest (%), 2013 ................................................................................ 68

Table 6: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Algeria, Exploration and Development Blocks and Interest (%), 2013...................................................................................................... 69

Table 7: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Mozambique, Exploration and Development Blocks and Interest (%), 2013 ................................................................................ 70

Table 8: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Kenya, Exploration and Development Blocks and Interest (%), 2013...................................................................................................... 71

Table 9: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Australasia Project, Concession and Interest (%), 2013 ....................................................................................................................... 72

Table 10: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Investment Expenditure Classification, by Segment (as % of Total Expenditure), 2011–2018 .................................................................. 76

Table 11: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Costs Incurred (US$ mil), 2010–2013 ... 78

Table 12: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Reserve Replacement Ratio and Finding and Development Costs Incurred (US$ per boe), 2010–2013 .......................................... 80

Table 13: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Oil and Gas Production Forecast, 2011–2018 .................................................................................................................................. 82

Table 14: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Thailand, Production Licenses and Interest, 2013 .............................................................................................................................. 88

Table 15: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Overseas, Production Licenses and Interest, 2013 .............................................................................................................................. 91

Table 16: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Historical and Forecast Production, 2011–2018 .................................................................................................................................. 92

Table 17: GlobalData, Price Forecasts, 2014–2018 ....................................................................................... 92




Table of Contents

Table 18: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Income Statement (THB mil), 2011–2018 ........................................................................................................................................... 93

Table 19: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Balance Sheet (THB mil), 2011–2018 ... 95

Table 20: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Cash Flow Statement (THB mil), 2011–2018 .................................................................................................................................. 97

Table 21: PTTEP Resources Inc, Net Asset Value, 2014 ............................................................................... 99

Table 22: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Peer Group Comparison, Operational and Financial Performance, 2012 .............................................................................................. 101

Table 23: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Peer Group Comparison, Total Reserves and Production (mmboe), 2012.................................................................................. 105

Table 24: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Peer Group Comparison, Financial and Operational Ratios, 2012 ........................................................................................................... 107

Table 25: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Production and Reserves, mmboe, 2009-2013 .......................................................................... 109

Table 26: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production and Reserves, By Country/Region, mmboe, 2009-2013 ........................................... 111

Table 27: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Changes, mmboe, 2009-2013 ..................................................................................... 112

Table 28: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Crude Oil Production and Reserves Metrics, mmbbl, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................................... 114

Table 29: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Crude Oil Production and Reserves, By Country/Region, mmbbl, 2009-2013 ..................................................................................... 115

Table 30: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Crude Oil Reserve Changes, mmbbl, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................ 116

Table 31: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Natural Gas Production and Reserves Metrics, bcf, 2009-2013 ............................................................................................................. 118

Table 32: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Natural Gas Production and Reserves, By Country/Region, bcf, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................... 119

Table 33: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Natural Gas Reserve Changes, bcf, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................ 120




Table of Contents

Table 34: Figure 53: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Reserves Life Index, Years, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................................... 122

Table 35: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Reserves Life Index, By Country/Region, Years, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................... 125

Table 36: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Upstream Capital Expenditure, US$ mil, 2009-2013 .......................................................................................................................... 126

Table 37: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Proved and Unproved Acquisition Costs, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ........................................................................ 129

Table 38: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploration and Development Costs, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ................................................................................... 131

Table 39: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Reserves Replacement, Finding and Development Costs, Finding Cost and Proved Acquisition Costs Per boe, US$/boe, 2009-2013132

Table 40: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Reserves Replacement, Finding and Development Costs, Finding Cost and Proved Acquisition Costs Per boe, US$/boe, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ...................................................................................................... 137

Table 41: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Production Replacement Ratio, %, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................. 139

Table 42: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt.Avg. Oil and Gas Production Replacement Ratio, By Country/Region, %, 2009-2013 ........................................... 146

Table 43: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Revenue and Expenses, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................ 148

Table 44: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Revenue and Expenses, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 156

Table 45: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................. 158

Table 46: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, US$/boe, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 .................................................................................. 165

Table 47: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Performance Metrics, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................ 167

Table 48: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Producible Oil and Gas Wells, 2009-2013 ......................................................................................................................................... 168




Table of Contents

Table 49: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Producible Oil and Gas Wells, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ...................................................................................................... 176

Table 50: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploratory and Developed Wells, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................ 178

Table 51: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploratory and Developed Wells, By Country/Region, 2009-2013 ...................................................................................................... 180

1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Operational Map, 2014 .......................... 22

Figure 2: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Financial and Operational Overview, 2010–2013 .................................................................................................................................. 23

Figure 3: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Share Price Movement, April 2013– March 2014 ................................................................................................................................. 25

Figure 4: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Sales Growth Targets, 2013–2018 .................................................................................................................................. 27

Figure 5: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploration Targets, 2014 ...................... 29

Figure 6: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Southeast Asia, 2013 ............................ 31

Figure 7: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Production Growth Rate (%), 2011–2013 ........................................................................................................................................... 32

Figure 8: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Reserves and Resource Base (mmboe), By Geography and Product, 2013 ................................................................................ 34

Figure 9: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploration Drilling Success Ratio (%), 2009–2013 .................................................................................................................................. 35

Figure 10: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited and Peer Group, Exploration Drilling Success Ratio (%), 2009–2012 ................................................................................................... 36

Figure 11: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Profit Ratios (%), 2009–2013 ............... 37

Figure 12: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited and Peer Group, Profit Ratios (%), 2009–2012 .................................................................................................................................. 38

Figure 13: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, CFO and Capex, 2011–2013 ............... 39

Figure 14: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited and Peer Group, Reserve Replacement Ratio (%), 2008–2012 ............................................................................................ 41




Table of Contents

Figure 15: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploration and Development Costs, by Region, 2010–2013 ................................................................................................................ 43

Figure 16: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Production Growth Targets, 2013–2020 ........................................................................................................................................... 46

Figure 17: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Resource Base and Reserves (mmboe), by Type, 2011–2013.................................................................................................... 47

Figure 18: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Major Exploration Targets and Drilling Expenditure by Region, 2014 ...................................................................................................... 50

Figure 19: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Number of Exploration Wells Planned, by Region, 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 51

Figure 20: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Proved Reserves (mmboe), by Product, 2011–2013 .................................................................................................................... 52

Figure 21: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Proved Reserves, by Region (%), 2013 ........................................................................................................................................... 53

Figure 22: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Net Productive and Dry Exploratory and Development Wells, 2010–2013 ........................................................................................... 54

Figure 23: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Net/Gross Oil and Gas Ratio (%) for Wells, 2010–2013 ....................................................................................................................... 55

Figure 24: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Oil and Gas Productive and Dry Exploratory Wells by Region, Number of Wells Drilled, 2010–2013 .............................................. 56

Figure 25: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Oil and Gas Productive and Dry Development Wells by Region, Number of Wells Drilled, 2010–2013 ........................................... 57

Figure 26: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Thailand, Operational Overview Map, 2014 ........................................................................................................................................... 58

Figure 27: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Myanmar, Operational Overview Map, 2013 ........................................................................................................................................... 64

Figure 28: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Capex (US$ mil), by Geography, 2011–2013 .................................................................................................................................. 74

Figure 29: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Estimated Capex by Geography (%), 2014–2018 .................................................................................................................................. 75




Table of Contents

Figure 30: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Planned Capital and Operational Expenditure (US$ bil), by Segment, 2011–2018 .......................................................................... 76

Figure 31: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Costs Incurred (US$ mil), 2010–2013 .. 78

Figure 32: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Costs Incurred (US$ mil), by Region, 2010–2013 .................................................................................................................................. 79

Figure 33: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Reserve Replacement Ratio and Finding and Development Costs Incurred per boe, 2010–2013 .................................................... 80

Figure 34: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Production (mmboe), 2011–2018 ........................................................................................................................................... 82

Figure 35: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Production Mix (%), 2011–2018 ........... 83

Figure 36: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Production (%), by Region, 2013 ......... 84

Figure 37: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited and Peers, Relative Share Price Performance Index (%), March 2013–February 2014................................................................. 100

Figure 38: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Financial Parameters, 2010–2013 ..... 102

Figure 39: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited and Peer Group, Financial Parameters, 2012 ..................................................................................................................... 103

Figure 40: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited and Peer Group, F&D Cost and Reserve Replacement Comparison, 2012 ................................................................................. 104

Figure 41: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Peer Group Comparison, Total Reserves and Production (mmboe), 2012.................................................................................. 105

Figure 42: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited and Peer Group, Reserve Life Index (in Years), 2012 ........................................................................................................................ 106

Figure 43: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Peer Group Comparison, Valuation Ratios, 2012.............................................................................................................................. 108

Figure 44: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Production and Reserves, mmboe, 2009-2013 .......................................................................... 109

Figure 45: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Oil & Gas Reserves, End of Period, By Country/Region, mmboe, 2009-2013 ........................................................................ 111

Figure 46: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Changes, mmboe, 2013 .............................................................................................. 112




Table of Contents

Figure 47: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Crude Oil Production and Reserves Metrics, mmbbl, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................................... 114

Figure 48: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil Reserves, End of Period, By Country/Region, mmbbl, 2009-2013 .......................................................................................... 115

Figure 49: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Crude Oil Reserve Changes, mmbbl, 2013 ......................................................................................................................................... 116

Figure 50: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Natural Gas Production and Reserves Metrics, bcf, 2009-2013 ............................................................................................................. 118

Figure 51: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Gas Reserves, End of Period, By Country/Region, bcf, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................ 119

Figure 52: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Natural Gas Reserve Changes, bcf, 2013 ......................................................................................................................................... 120

Table 34: Figure 53: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Reserves Life Index, Years, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................................... 122

Figure 54: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Gas Reserve Life Index, By Country/Region, Ratio, 2009-2013 ............................................................................................ 123

Figure 55: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil & Gas Reserve Life Index, By Country/Region, Ratio, 2009-2013 ............................................................................................ 124

Figure 56: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil Reserve Life Index, By Country/Region, Ratio, 2009-2013 ............................................................................................ 125

Figure 57: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Upstream Capital Expenditure, US$ mil, 2009-2013 .......................................................................................................................... 126

Figure 58: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Proved Acquisition Costs, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 128

Figure 59: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Development Costs, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 130

Figure 60: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploration Costs, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 131

Figure 61: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt.Avg., Reserves Replacement, Finding and Development Costs, Finding Cost and Proved Acquisition Costs Per boe, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................... 132




Table of Contents

Figure 62: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil & Gas Finding & Development Cost/boe, 3-Year Average, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ........................................ 134

Figure 63: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil & Gas Finding Cost per boe, 3-Year Average, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ........................................................... 135

Figure 64: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Reserve Replacement Cost per boe, 3-Year Average, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ........................................................ 136

Figure 65: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Proved Reserves Acquisition Cost per boe, 3-Year Average, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 .......................................... 137

Figure 66: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt.Avg., Oil and Gas Production Replacement Ratio, %, 2009-2013 .......................................................................... 139

Figure 67: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt. Avg. Gas F&D Production Replacement, By Country/Region, %, 2009-2013 ...................................................................... 141

Figure 68: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt. Avg. Gas RRC Production Replacement, By Country/Region, %, 2009-2013 ...................................................................... 142

Figure 69: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt. Avg. Oil & Gas F&D Production Replacement, By Country/Region, %, 2009-2013 .................................................... 143

Figure 70: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt. Avg. Oil & Gas RRC Production Replacement, By Country/Region, %, 2009-2013 .................................................... 144

Figure 71: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt. Avg. Oil F&D Production Replacement, By Country/Region, %, 2009-2013 ...................................................................... 145

Figure 72: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 3-Year Wt. Avg. Oil RRC Production Replacement, By Country/Region, %, 2009-2013 ...................................................................... 146

Figure 73: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Revenue and Expenses, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................ 148

Figure 74: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization From Upstream Oil & Gas Operations, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ... 150

Figure 75: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Income Tax Provision (Benefit) From Upstream Oil & Gas Operations, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013................................. 151

Figure 76: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Net Income/ Loss From Upstream Oil & Gas Operations, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ...................................................... 152




Table of Contents

Figure 77: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil & Gas Revenue, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 153

Figure 78: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Profit (loss) Before Taxation From Upstream Oil & Gas Operations, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013................................. 154

Figure 79: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Production Costs, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 .................................................................................................................. 155

Figure 80: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Expenses From Upstream Oil & Gas Operations, By Country/Region, US$ mil, 2009-2013 ......................................................... 156

Figure 81: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................. 158

Figure 82: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploration Expenses per boe, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................... 159

Figure 83: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Income Tax/(Benefit) per boe, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................... 160

Figure 84: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Lifting Cost per boe, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................... 161

Figure 85: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Annual Net Income per boe, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................... 162

Figure 86: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil & Gas Revenue per boe, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................... 163

Figure 87: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total DD&A per boe, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................... 164

Figure 88: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Total Revenue per boe, By Country/Region, US$/boe, 2009-2013 ....................................................................................... 165

Figure 89: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Oil and Gas Performance Metrics, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................ 167

Figure 90: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Producible Oil and Gas Wells, 2009-2013 ......................................................................................................................................... 168

Figure 91: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Gross Productive Gas Wells, By Country/Region, Number, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 170




Table of Contents

Figure 92: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Gross Productive Oil & Gas Wells, By Country/Region, Number, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 171

Figure 93: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Gross Productive Oil Wells, By Country/Region, Number, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 172

Figure 94: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Net/Gross Oil & Gas Ratio, By Country/Region, %, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................. 173

Figure 95: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Net Productive Gas Wells, By Country/Region, Number, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 174

Figure 96: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Net Productive Oil & Gas Wells, By Country/Region, Number, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 175

Figure 97: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Net Productive Oil Wells, By Country/Region, Number, 2009-2013 ........................................................................................ 176

Figure 98: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Exploratory and Developed Wells, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................ 178




Company Overview

2 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Company Overview

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP) is the national petroleum company of Thailand, established on June 20, 1985, and is engaged in the exploration, development, production and acquisition of crude oil and natural gas prospects. It is a subsidiary of PTT Public Company Limited, which holds a 65.3% equity stake in PTTEP. The company produces around XX% of the total petroleum production in the country. The company has its operations round the world, including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Australasia and North America, operating more than XX projects. PTTEP’s major operations include upstream activities along with other associated business functions such as providing transport and logistic support services, the construction of Floating Liquefaction Natural Gas production (FLNG) vessels and certain other infrastructure-related projects.

The company’s upstream operations are primarily located in the onshore and offshore areas of Thailand. However, the company also has operations in international areas including Algeria, Australia, Canada, Cambodia, Indonesia, New Zealand, Oman, Republic of Mozambique, Myanmar, Kenya and Vietnam. PTTEP’s Exploration and Production (E&P) operations are spread over XX projects in XXcountries, of which XX projects are in an exploration phase of development, three projects are in a development phase, and XX projects are in a production phase.




Key Highlights

3 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Key Highlights

3.1 Near-term Projects to Drive Production Growth PTTEP has mainly focused on strengthening its production profile in domestic as well as overseas locations. The company’s production capacity was increased from XX mboed in 2011 to XX mboed in 2012 and then to XX mboed in 2013, at a CAGR of XX % during the period 2011–2013 and a YOY growth rate XX % over the capacity in 2012. The company currently has XX production assets in its portfolio, including XX in Thailand and two in Myanmar, two in Vietnam, and one project in both Oman and Australia. The company also recently acquired the Natuna Sea A project, which is expected to contribute to the production from 2014.

PTTEP is aiming at a target production volume of XX mboed by 2020, which is a revised capacity from the 900 mboed mentioned in 2012. In line with the strategy to reach target production levels, the company intends to accelerate its E&P programs in order to maintain the production capacity and ameliorate its proved (1P) reserves’ lifespan to 10 years. To support this move, the company intends to enhance its investments in both domestic and international assets. The production contribution from near-term growth projects such as Montara, Vietnam 16-1, Zawtika and Algeria 433A and 416B together with long-term contributors like the Myanmar M3, Algeria Hassi Bir Rekaiz (HBR), and Mozambique Offshore Area 1 projects, the Cash Maple field in the PTTEP Australasia project, and its Canada oil sands projects, will guide the company in attaining its targeted production level. During 2013, the company successfully achieved first production at its Montara project and the highest production to date at the S1 project, with XX barrels of oil per day (bd).




SWOT Analysis

4 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, SWOT Analysis

4.1 Strengths 4.1.1 Increasing Production Levels

The primary objective of PTTEP is to reach a production capacity of XX mboed by 2020. In line with this objective, the company’s production consistently grew during 2009 and 2013, at a CAGR of XX%. The key strategy behind the consistent growth of the company’s production is the exploration, appraisal and development activities conducted at current producing areas, and investment in prospective new regions. Additional development drilling and appraisal activities contributed to sustained production at existing projects along with the growth of production due to the addition of new producing areas in the project. The company’s short-term growth strategy includes organic growth in production through consistent exploration, appraisal and development activities. However, the company also intends to grow inorganically by engaging in an increasing number of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) activities in the long-term. These strategies are conducive to the maintenance of a five-year average reserves replacement ratio of more than one, and consistent growth in production contributing to the achievement of the target production level. The following figure illustrates the growth of the company’s production during 2009–2013.

Figure 7: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Production Growth Rate (%), 2011–2013

Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack [Accessed on March 12, 2014]




SWOT Analysis

4.2 Weaknesses 4.2.1 Declining Reserve Replacement Ratio Resulting in Slumping Reserve Life

Index

Despite PTTEP’s relatively high exploration drilling success ratio, the company was unable to replace the reserves that were utilized for production. Its five-year average proved reserves replacement ratio also dropped from XX% in 2011 to XX% in 2012 and XX% in 2013. The company’s reserve replacement ratio decreased from XX% in 2010 to XX% in 2011, then increased to XX% in 2012 and to XX% in 2013. Consequently, the company’s reserve life index declined to XX years in 2013, from XX years in 2012 and XX years in 2011.

PTTEP’s proved reserves declined by XX % to XX mmboe from XX mmboe in 2012, its 2P reserves declined by XX % to XX mmboe in 2013, compared to XX mmboe in 2012. The 2P reserves at the end of 2013 do not account for the effect of the KKD asset swap transaction announced in January 2014, which further decreased 2P reserves by XX mmboe and the reserve life of the company to XX years. This declining reserve replacement ratio may disrupt the company’s future development and production plans.




Goals and Strategies

5 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Goals and Strategies

PTTEP’s vision is to become one of the leading Asian exploration and production companies through technological development and green practices. The company intends to follow a balanced approach that will allow it to become a prominent international exploration and production company.

5.1 Production Target of XX Thousand Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Day by 2020 PTTEP is aiming to increase its production to XX mboed by 2020, from the XX mboed of production recorded in 2013. The company’s average production rate in 2013 recorded an increase of XX% from XX mboed in 2012. The strategy to reach the targeted production potential by maintaining current production levels from its domestic assets at approximately XX mboed through to 2020, by making additions through overseas projects, start-ups and ramp-ups; and through the addition of extra capacity through new discoveries and the acquisition of production or near-term production projects. PTTEP expects three of its projects, Montara, Zawtika and Natuna Sea A, to contribute to the company’s production in 2014. The company also anticipates that Canadian oil sands will be one of its major prospects for the future, and expects it to support the company’s production beyond 2018.

Currently, PTTEP intends to develop prospects such as Cash and Maple in Australia and HBR in Algeria and explore for more discoveries in international locations such as Mozambique and Kenya in order to add to its resources. Along with these E&D activities, the company intends to secure resources through the acquisition of prospects. For this purpose, the company targets producing assets in Southeast Asia, shale assets with high liquid content in North America, and any other such assets in overseas territories.

The following figure illustrates the company’s strategy for increasing its production to 600 mboed, through both organic and inorganic production growth.




Forecast Production and Financial Statements

9 PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Forecast Production and Financial Statements

PTTEP’s production and financial projections have been made using information that is publicly available. GlobalData has used a forecast period of five years for its analysis. The table below shows PTTEP’s historic and estimated production during the 2011–2018 period.

Table 16: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Historical and Forecast Production, 2011–2018

Production share Actual Projected annual forecast

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Crude oil and NGL production (mmboe) XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Natural gas production (bcf) XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Overall geographical Production (mmboe) XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Source: GlobalData; PTTEP, 2012; PTTEP, 2013b

GlobalData’s price deck is divided into strong, base and weak cases to forecast a company’s performance. GlobalData has applied company-specific differentials to its projected crude oil and natural gas prices. The table below shows GlobalData’s price deck for the 2014–2018 period.

Table 17: GlobalData, Price Forecasts, 2014–2018

Crude oil price (THB per bbl) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Strong case XX XX XX XX XX

Base case XX XX XX XX XX

Weak case XX XX XX XX XX

Natural gas price (THB per mcf) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Strong case XX XX XX XX XX

Base case XX XX XX XX XX

Weak case XX XX XX XX XX

Mcf: thousand cubic feet Source: GlobalData Note: GlobalData has considered base case prices for crude oil and natural gas. Dubai prices are considered for crude oil and Henry Hub prices are considered for natural gas





9.1 Income Statement (2011–2018) PTTEP’s income statement is shown in the table below. The company’s total E&P revenue is expected to increase by almost 20% from THB220.3 billion (US$7.2 billion) in 2013 to THB264.1 billion (US$8.1 billion) in 2014. However, GlobalData expects the company’s E&P revenues to decline at a CAGR of 5% during the 2014–2018 period. The production costs are expected to increase at an annual growth rate of 12.4% during the 2014–2018 period. The company’s Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) in 2014 are expected to be THB127.8 billion (US$3.9 billion), which is 47.5% of its total revenue. The company’s Similarly, the company’s Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) in 2014 is expected to grow by 27.3% to around THB202.1 billion (US$6.2 billion), which is around 75% of its total revenue. The company is expected to generate a net income of THB70.6 billion (US$2.2 billion) in 2014, which translates into a basic Earnings Per Share (EPS) of THB17.8 (US$0.5).

Table 18: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Income Statement (THB mil), 2011–2018

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

E&P revenue XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Other revenue, net XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total revenue XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Production costs XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

G&A expenses XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

EBITDAX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Exploration expense/dry hole XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

EBITDA XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

DD&A expense XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Operating income (EBIT) XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Net interest expense XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

EBT XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Current tax XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Deferred tax XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total income tax XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

PAT XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Net income to common shareholders XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Basic shares outstanding XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX





Diluted shares outstanding XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Basic EPS XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Dilutive EPS XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

EBITDAX: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Depletion, Amortization and Exploration expenses; EBIT: Earnings Before Interest and Tax; EBT: Earnings Before Tax; G&A : General and Administrative, PAT: Profit After Tax Source: GlobalData; PTTEP, 2013a; PTTEP, 2012; PTTEP, 2011





9.2 Balance Sheet (2011–2018) PTTEP’s balance sheet is depicted in the following table. GlobalData expects the company to maintain a healthy level of cash and cash equivalents during the 2014–2018 period. PTTEP’s leverage is expected to decrease from 34.3% in 2013 to 28.1% in 2014 and to 13.8% by 2018.

Table 19: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Balance Sheet (THB mil), 2011–2018

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cash and cash equivalent XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Accounts receivable XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Inventories XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Other current assets XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total current assets XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Prop. plant and equipment, net XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Other non-current assets XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total assets XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Accounts payable XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Current portion of long-term debt XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Other current liabilities XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total current liabilities XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Long-term debt XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Deferred income tax XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Other long-term liabilities XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total liabilities XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Common stock XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Additional paid-in capital XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Retained earnings XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total shareholder equity XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total equity XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX





Total liabilities + shareholder equity XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Source: GlobalData; PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 2011; PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 2012; PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 2013a;





9.3 Cash Flow Statement (2011–2018) The table below shows PTTEP’s cash flow statement for the 2011–2018 period. The company’s CFO increased to THB114.5 billion (US$2.9 billion) in 2013, from THB107.4 billion (US$3.4 billion) in 2012 and THB88.7 billion (US$3.7 billion) in 2011.

GlobalData expects that the company will be able to maintain a sufficient level of cash flows during the 2014–2018 period. The company will be able to fund most of its capex plans through internally generated operational cash flows during the 2014–2018 period.

Table 20: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, Cash Flow Statement (THB mil), 2011–2018

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net income XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Depreciation, depletion, and amortization XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Taxes paid XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Change in working capital XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Operating cash flows XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Capex – additions to PP&E XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Investing cash flows XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Additions to (reductions in) long-term debt XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Common and preferred dividends XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Financing cash flows XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Total increase/decrease of cash XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

PP&E: Property, Plant and Equipment Source: GlobalData; PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 2011; PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 2012; PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, 2013a;




Appendix

16 Appendix 16.1 Abbreviations

1P : Proved

2C : Contingent

2D : Two-dimensional

2P : Proved and Probable

3D : Three-dimensional

4D : Four-dimensional

bcf : billion cubic feet

bcm ; billion cubic meters

bd : barrels of oil per day

BKM : Bungkrathaim

boe : barrels of oil per day

boed : barrels of oil equivalent per day

CAGR : Compound Annual Growth Rate

Capex : Capital expenditure

CFO : Cash Flow from Operations

CPOC : CARIGALI-PTTEPI Operating Company

DACF : Debt-Adjusted Cash Flow

DCF : Discounted Cash Flow

DD&A : Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization

DMF : Department of Mineral Fuels

E&P : Exploration and Production

EBIT : Earnings Before Interest and Taxes

EBITDA : Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization

EBITDAX: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization and Exploration

EBT : Earnings Before Tax

EIA : Environmental Impact Assessment

EP : Exploration and Production




Appendix

EPS : Earnings Per Share

EV : Enterprise Value

F&D : Finding and Development

FCF : Free Cash Flow

FEED : Front End Engineering Design

FID : Final Investment Decision

FLNG : Floating Liquefaction Natural Gas

FPSO : Floating Production, Storage and Offloading units

G&G : Geological and Geophysical

GBN : Greater Bongkot North

GBS : Greater Bongkot South

GSA : Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement

HBR : Algeria Hassi Bir Rekaiz

HMG : Hua Mai Sung

JV : Joint Venture

KKD : Kai Kos Dehseh

km : kilometers

km2 : square kilometers

LNG : Liquefied Natural Gas

mbd : thousand barrels of oil per day

mboe : thousand barrels of oil equivalent

mboed : thousands of barrels of oil equivalent per day

mcf : thousand cubic feet

mmcfd : million cubic feet per day

mi : miles

mi2 : square miles

mmbbl : million barrels of oil

mmboe : million barrels of oil equivalent

mmcf : million cubic feet




Appendix

MNZ-1 : Manizawta-1

MTJDA : Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area

mtd : thousand tons per day

NA : Not Available/Applicable

NGL : Natural Gas Liquids

NPI : Nong Pak Chi

NPV : Net present value

P&A : Plugging and Abandonment

PP&E : Property, Plant and Equipment

PSC : production sharing contract

PTTEPI : PTTEP International Limited

PTTEPS : PTTEP Siam Limited

RHS : Right Hand Side

SAGD : Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage

SCL : Statoil Canada Limited

tcf : trillion cubic feet

TEPM : Total E&P Myanmar

THSL : Thornbury, Hangingstone and South Leismer

WHP : Well-Head Platform

WPG : Wang Phai Sung

YOY : Year-On-Year

ZPQ : Zawtika Processing and Living Quarter

Conversion THB to US$

2011 2012 2013 2014 and above

1 THB = US$ 30.666 31.208 30.796 32.500

1 mmboe = 6 bcf




Appendix

16.2 Sources Google Finance (2014a). Summary. Google. Available from:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=BKK%3APTTEP&ei=e6wzU8C3LNChkgWuUQ [Accessed on March 19, 2014]

Google Finance (2014b). Historical Prices. Google. Available from: http://www.google.com/finance/historical?cid=230422634689079&startdate=Mar+1%2C+2013&enddate=Feb+28%2C+2014&num=30&ei=cK0zU5CJF4ehkgWwfw [Accessed on March 19, 2014].

PTTEP (2010). Annual Report 2010. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited. Available from: https://www.pttep.com/download/DocumentSSHE_ReportFile_1489Annual%20Report%202010.pdf

PTTEP (2012). Annual Report 2012. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited. Available from: https://www.pttep.com/download/DocumentSSHE_ReportFile_239256-1_2012_Full_EN.pdf

PTTEP (2013a). Annual Report 2013. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited. Available from: https://www.pttep.com/download/DocumentSSHE_ReportFile_2730133_EN.pdf

PTTEP (2013b). Analyst Meeting 2013. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited. Available from: https://www.pttep.com/download/DocumentSSHE_ReportFile_2720PTTEP%20YE2013%20Analyst%20Meeting%20-%20Distribution.pdf

PTTEP (2013c). Five-Year Investment Plan. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited. Available from: http://www.pttep.com/imgUpload/5yr%20Investment%20Plan%20(presentation)%20FINAL%20for%20upload(3).pdf

PTTEP (2013d). Corporate day presentation. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited. Available from: https://www.pttep.com/download/DocumentSSHE_ReportFile_2704Tisco%20Conference%20Bangkok%20Jan%2024%20Distn%20FINAL.pdf

PTTEP (2013e). Supplemental information report. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited. Available from: https://www.pttep.com/download/DocumentSSHE_ReportFile_276456-1_EN.pdf

PTTEP (2013f). Conference call. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited. Available from:




Appendix

https://www.pttep.com/download/DocumentSSHE_ReportFile_2712Conference%20Call_YE%202013_Print%20out%20version.pdf




Appendix

16.3 Methodology GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the energy industry, and advanced statistical expertise.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

All GlobalData databases are continuously updated and revised.

16.3.1 Coverage

The objective of updating GlobalData’s coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up-to-date vision of the industry possible.

Changes to the industry taxonomy are built on the basis of extensive research of company, association and competitor sources.

Company coverage is based on three key factors: market capitalization, revenues and media attention/innovation/market potential.

An exhaustive search of 56 member exchanges is conducted and companies are prioritized on the basis of their market capitalization.

The estimated revenues of all major companies, including private and governmental, are gathered and used to prioritize coverage.

Companies that are making the news, or which are of particular interest due to their innovative approach, are prioritized.

GlobalData aims to cover all major news events and deals in the energy industry, updated on a daily basis.

The coverage is further streamlined and strengthened with additional inputs from GlobalData’s expert panel (see below).

16.3.2 Secondary Research

The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market.

The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to:

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations and US Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) filings

Industry trade journals and other literature

Internal and external proprietary databases




Appendix

National government documents, statistical databases and market reports

News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the market

16.3.3 Primary Research

GlobalData conducts hundreds of primary interviews each year with industry participants and commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions:

It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape, and future outlook.

It helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings.

It further develops the analysis team’s expertise and market understanding.




Appendix

16.4 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means; electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

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