Gas Emissions and the Effects on Global Climate Change, Ozone Depletion and Air Pollution

Robert T. WatsonChief Scientist & Director, ESSD. World Bank

andChair, IPCC

November 30, 2000 - 1:00 p.m. - MC2-850

LCR Team

• alleviate poverty for the 1.3 billion people who live on less than $1 per day and the 3 billion people who live on less than $2 per day

• provide adequate food, especially for the 800 million people who are malnourished today, thus requiring food production to double in the next 35 years

• provide clean water for the 1.3 billion people who live without clean water and provide sanitation for the 2 billion people who live without sanitation

• provide energy for the 2 billion people who live without electricity

• improve a healthy environment for the 1.4 billion people who are exposed to dangerous levels of outdoor pollution and the even larger number exposed to dangerous levels of indoor air pollution

• provide safe shelter for those that live in areas susceptible to civil strife due to environmental degradation and those vulnerable to natural disasters

The Challenge of Sustainable Development

State of the Environment

• Air quality is unacceptable in many developing country mega cities, resulting in respiratory illnesses and premature death

• Acid deposition remains a problem in many developing countries, adversely affecting ecological systems

• The Earth’s climate is changing due to human activities, threatening socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health

• Stratospheric ozone depletion, which leads to increased UV-B and adverse health affects, has peaked, but recovery will take at least 50 years

• Biological diversity at the genetic, species and ecosystem level is being lost at an unprecedented rate, threatening critical ecosystem goods and services

Linkages Among Food Production andGlobal Environmental Issues

2

Linkages Among Environmental Issues

Air Quality

Sulfate Aerosols

Poverty is Multi-Dimensional

Opportunity

Capability

Security

Empowerment

Dimensions of Poverty

Income and Consumption

Health

Education

Vulnerability

Participation in Decision-making

Examples of Determinants

Air quality

Natural Resource Base

Ecological fragility

Natural shocks

Access to markets

Access to water and toilets

Environmental Links

Environmental governance

Environmental awareness

Underlying Causes of Change• Increased demand for resources, e.g., biological and energy,

as a result of economic growth and population growth• Subsidies that lead to inefficient use of resources (e.g., water)• Failure to internalize environmental extranalities into the

market (e.g., health care costs into the price of coal)• Failure of economic markets to recognize the true value of

natural resources (e.g., global goods and services)• Failure to appropriate the global values of natural resources

to the local level• Institutional and government failures to regulate or

implement the regulations of the use of biological resources and energy (e.g., collapse of fisheries around the world)

• Inappropriate use of technologies (e.g., fossil energy)• Failure of people to consider the long-term consequences of

their actions (change in human values)

Perverse Subsidies

Annual Subsidies Perverse Subsidies

US$ billion US$ billion

Agricultural 575 460

Fossil fuels 145 110

Road transportation 917 639

Water 233 219

Fisheries 22 22

Forestry 6 6

Totals 1,898 1,456

Source: Myers, 1997

Categories of Economic Values Attributed to Environmental Assets

. Food

. Biomass

. Recreation

. Health

Output that canbe consumed

directly

Direct UseValues

. Ecologicalfunctions

. Flood control

. Storm protection.

Functionalbenefits

Indirect UseValues

. Biodiversity. Converved habitats

Future directand indirectuse values

OptionsValues

Use Values

. Habitats

. Endangered species

Value fromknowledge of

continued existence

ExistenceValues

Other Non-UseValues

Intrinsic Value

Non-Use Values

Total Economic Value

Decreasing “tangibility” of value to individuals

Atmospheric Ozone

Ozone Science, Assessments and PolicyHow Have They Interacted?

Effect of the International Agreements onOzone-Depleting Stratospheric Chlorine/Bromine

TOMS and Ground-based Zonal Trends

1/79 to 12/97

Ch

ang

e in

tem

per

atu

re (

°C)

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

–0.2

Global Temperature ObservationsAnnual averages plus long-term trends, to July 1999

The Met.Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Precipitation Trends (%) per Decade (1900-1994)

Green • = increasing / Brown • = decreasing

Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times

Carbon dioxide: 33% rise Methane: 100% rise

The MetOffice Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research

Glo

bal

-mea

n r

adia

tive

fo

rcin

g (

Wm

)

0

-1

-2

1

2

3

Confidence level

High Low Low Low Very

low

Very

low

Very

low

Very

low

Solar

Troposphericaerosols - direct effect

Stratosphericozone

Troposphericozone

Sulphate

Fossilfuelsoot

Halocarbons

Biomassburning

Tropospheric aerosols- indirect effect

N02O

CH4

CO2

95/868/2.16

Estimates of the globally and annually averaged anthropogenic radiative forcing (in Wm -2) due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols from pre-industrial times to the present (1992) and to natural changes in solar output from 1850 to the present.

Source: IPCC. Climate Change 1995 - The Science of Climate Change. WGI. 1996.

Radiative Forcing

Schematic Illustration of SRES ScenariosSRES Scenarios

A2

c

T

uu

g

A1

B2Global

Economic

Regional

Environmental

B1

u

Scenarios

• Population (billion) 5.3 7.0 - 15.1

• World GDP (1012 1990US$/yr) 21 235 - 550

• Per capita income ratio: 16.1 1.5 - 4.2developed countries to developing countries

• Final energy intensity (106J/US$)a 16.7 1.4 - 5.9

• Primary energy (1018 J/US$) 351 514 - 2226

• Share of coal in primary energy (%)a 24 1 - 53

• Share of zero carbon in primary energy (%)a 18 28 - 35

1990 2100

a 1990 values include non-commercial energy consistent with IPCC WGII SAR (Energy Primer) but with SRES accounting conventions. Note that ASF, MiniCam, and IMAGE scenarios do not consider non-commercial renewable energy. Hence, these scenarios report lower energy use.

0

2

4

6

8

10

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Glo

bal C

arbo

n D

ioxi

de E

mis

sion

sSR

ES

Scen

ario

s an

d D

atab

ase

Ran

ge(in

dex,

199

0=1)

IS92 range

A1, B2

A2

B1

Median

5%

95%

1990 range(all scenarios)

Maximum in Database

Minimum in Database

Total database range

Non

-inte

rven

tion

Non

-cla

ssifi

ed

Inte

rven

tion

Global CO2 Emissions from Energy & Industry

Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.

Scenarios

• CO, (MtCO/yr) 879 363 - 2570

• NMVOC, (Mt/yr) 139 87 - 420

• NOX, (MtN/yr) 30.9 19 - 110

1990 2100

0

50

100

150

200

250

Maximum in database

Minimum in database

Glo

bal S

ulfu

r D

ioxi

de E

mis

sion

s(M

tS)

1930 1960 2020 2050 2100

1990 range

IS92

A2

B1

Sul

fur

- no

n-co

ntro

l, an

d no

n-cl

assi

fied

sce

nari

os

Sul

fur

- co

ntro

l

B2

20801990

Total database range

Range of sulfur-controlscenarios in the database

A1

Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions (MtS)

Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.

Projected Change in Global Mean Surface Temperature from Models using

the SRES Emissions Scenarios

Year

Te

mp

e ra

ture

Ch

ang

e (

º C)

5

4

3

2

1

0

6

SAR

The 1997/98 El Niño Strongest on Record*

*As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the eastern tropical Pacific off Peru

El Niño years

La Niña years

Potential Climate Change Impacts

Balanced Approach to Policymaking

• Command and Control Strategies

• Market-based Interventions

• Voluntary Agreements

Enabling Conditions forEffective Policy Change

• Proper Incentive Systems

• Strong Legal Frameworks

• Public Participation

• Cooperation with the Private Sector

• Technological Capacity

• Financial and Institutional Capacity

• Information for Assessment and Monitoring

USINGMARKETS

CREATINGMARKETS

ENVIRONMENTALREGULATIONS

ENGAGINGTHE PUBLIC

(Subsidy reduction,taxes, user fees,

performance bonds,targeted subsidies)

(Property rights anddecentralization,tradable permits,international offset

systems)

(Standards, bans,quotas)

(Informationdisclosure, public

participation)

WATER

FISHERIES

LAND

MANAGEMENT

FORESTS

SUSTAINABLEAGRICULTURE

BIODIVERSITY/PROT. AREAS

MINERALS

AIR POLLUTION

WATERPOLLUTION

SOLID WASTE

HAZARDOUSWASTE

The Policy Matrix

Source: World Bank. 1997. Five Years after Rio: Innovations in Environmental Policy. Washington, D.C.

Mitigation Options• Supply Side

Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas) Increased power plant efficiency (30% to ~60%) Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.) Carbon dioxide sequestration Nuclear power

• Demand Side Transportation Commercial and residential buildings Industry

• Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Afforestation, Reforestation and slowing Deforestation Improved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland Management Agroforestry

• Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions

Policy Instruments

• Policies, which may need regional or international agreement, include:Energy pricing strategies and taxesRemoving subsidies that increase GHG emissions Internalizing environmental extranalitiesTradable emissions permits-- domestic and globalVoluntary programsRegulatory programs including energy-efficiency standards Incentives for use of new technologies during market build-upEducation and training such as product advisories and labels

• Accelerated development of technologies as well as understanding the barriers to diffusion into the marketplace requires intensified R&D by governments and the private sector

CarbonTrading

JI

MoreRenewables

MoreGEF

CleanTechnology

CleanFuel

EconomicInstruments

EnvironmentalStandards

RegionalAgreements

Sector Reform

Energy Efficiency

Rural Energy

InternalizingGlobal Externalities(supporting the post-Kyoto process)

Local/RegionalPollutionAbatement(to be strengthened)

Win-Win(in place)

Fuel For Thought: Strategy for The Year 2000

Surprise

Geoth.

Solar

Biomass

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Oil & NGL

Coal

Trad Bio.0

500

1000

1500

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

exajoules

Energy SupplySustained Growth Scenario

Source: Shell International Limited.

Co-Benefits - Mitigation

• Co-benefits can lower the cost of climate change mitigation

• Identify technologies, practices and policies that can simultaneously address local and regional environmental issues and climate changeenergy sector

•indoor and outdoor air quality•regional acid deposition

transportation sector•outdoor air pollution•traffic congestion

agriculture and forestry•soil fertility•biodiversity and related ecological goods and services

Magnitudes and Costs of Impacts

Particulates • Premature death and excess morbidity.• $100’s millions to billions per year in large cities. (“An average of 10% of the annual city incomes of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.)• E.Asia, S.Asia, E.Europe, Russia, L.America

Lead • Excess morbidity and loss of IQ points.• Up to $100 million per year in large cities.• E.Asia, S.Asia, E.Europe, Russia, L.America.

Sulfur • Local excess morbidity; local impacts up to $50 million (?) per year in large cities.• Regional acidification; quantification of regional impacts more difficult than local impacts, due to lack of adequate dose-response data.• E.Europe, China/Korea/Japan, India.

Other air (ozone, NOx, CO, volatile hydrocarbons, toxic air pollutants)• Local excess morbidity + some toxic related premature mortality.• Quantification of impacts more difficult (lack of adequate dose-response data); probable range.

Local and Regional Impacts

Relative Costs of AbatementParticulates • Thermal power: relatively in-expensive.

• Cleaner fuels: relatively in-expensive.• Transporte sector (e.g. improved traffic management,

modal shifts, vehicle fleet upgrade, vehiclemodernization): “reasonably” in-expensive.

Lead Cleaner gasoline: relatively in-expensive.

Sulfur FGD for coal-fired thermal power plants: relativelyexpensive.

Others (ozone, NOx, CO, volatile hydrocarbons, toxic air pollutants)Abatement technologies and costs vary. Someabatement is produced ‘jointly’ with the aboveimprovements.

Hydro-related externalitiesEnvironmental and social R&R costs very site-specific.

Internalizing Local andRegional Externalities

Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP)

Source: OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. “Ambient Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992; EPA, AIRS database.

Health Costs (TSP in China)

Source: Clear Water, Blue Skies; China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.