gary billingsley: outlook for rare earths (day 1 - session 1: strategic metals and the clean-tech...

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GLOBAL MINING INVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010 STATIONERS’ HALL ● CITY OF LONDON ● TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 28-29 SEP 2010 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com Investment Conferences Outlook for Rare Earths Gary Billingsley – Exec Chairman, Great Western Minerals DAY 1 – SESSION 1: STRATEGIC METALS AND THE CLEAN-TECH REVOLUTION ?

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Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolutionOutlook for Rare EarthsObjective Capital Global Mining Investment Conference 2010Stationers' Hall, City of London28-29 September 2010Speaker:Gary Billingsley - Great Western Minerals

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Page 1: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010

STATIONERS’ HALL ● CITY OF LONDON ● TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 28-29 SEP 2010

www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com

Investment Conferences

Outlook for Rare EarthsGary Billingsley – Exec Chairman, Great Western Minerals

DAY 1 – SESSION 1: STRATEGIC METALS AND THE CLEAN-TECH REVOLUTION ?

Page 2: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Other sponsors & participating organisations:

GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010

Lead sponsors:

Media partners:

Page 3: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

OUTLOOK FOR RARE EARTHSObjective Capital Global Mining Investment Conference

September 28, 29 2010 London, UK

TSX.V: GWG / OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected]

Page 4: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

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Safe Harbour

• Cautionary Note On Forward-Looking Statements

• "Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding projected processing capacity, output and revenue, GWMG’s continued advancement of its mineral exploration, projects, processing operations and business plans.  When using this presentation, the words “potential”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “believe”,  “expect”, “may”, “project”, “plan” and similar expressions are intended to be  among the statements to identify forward-looking statements."

•Although GWMG believes that its expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risk and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Readers are advised to refer to GWMG’s current Annual Information Form available at www.sedar.com for a full description of risk factors.

• GWMG shall not be liable or responsible for any claim or damage, directly or indirectly, special or consequential, incurred by the user arising out of the interpretation, reliance upon or other use of the information contained in this presentation.

Page 5: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

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Fully Integrated Production Model

EXPLORATION

MINING

PROCESSING

SEPARATION

METAL MAKING

BY-PRODUCT SALES

REO SALES

LCM/GWTI ALLOY PROD’N

Enterprise profitability increases with each stage of processing

RE METAL SALES

ALLOY SALES

Page 6: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

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What Are Rare Earth Elements? Unique optical and magnetic properties

LREE HREE

Page 7: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Where Are Rare Earth Elements Used?Vital to our standard of living

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Page 8: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

World Mine Production and Reserves(tonnes REO)Country Mine Production

2009Reserves

United States - 13,000,000

Australia - 5,400,000

Brazil 650 48,000

China 120,000 (97%) 36,000,000 (36%)

CIS N/A 19,000,000

India 2,700 3,100,000

Malaysia 380 30,000

Other N/A 22,000,000

World Total 124,000 99,000,000

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2010

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Page 9: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Global REE Demand Rising Rapidly

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Page 10: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

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Rising Demand For REE’s and Applications

Increased REE Demand Comes From China REE

Application  REO

2010 Demand

2014f  Demand

Permanent Magnets

 Nd, Pr, Dy,

Tb, Sm 32,000 50,000

NiMH Batteries,

metallurgical  La, Ce, Pr, Nd  28,000 41,000

Catalysts  Ce, La, Pr,

Nd30,000 37,000

Phosphors  Eu, Y, Tb, La, Dy, Ce, Pr, Gd

8,000 12,000

Polishing Powders

 Ce, La, Nd,

mixed20,000 26,000

Glass Additives

 Ce, La, Nd, Er, Gd, Yb

11,000 10,000

Ceramics, other

  Mixed 5,000 6,000

Total     134,000 182,000

Chinese Demand

72,000 (54%)

117,500 (65%)

ROW Demand 62,000 64,500

Source: Lynas Corp. using data from industry participants, Roskill & IMCOA8

Page 11: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

China: Export Quota ReductionsChinese Rare Earth Export Quotas 2004 to 2009 (tonnes REO)

Source: 2005-2009, IMCOA; 2010, Metal Pages

Year RE Export Quota

% Change Demand Outside China

Surplus (Shortfall)

2005 65,609t 0% 48,000t 17,609t

2006 61,821t -6% 53,000t 8,821t

2007 59,643t -4% 55,000t 4,643t

2008 56,939t -4.5% 54,000t 2,939t

2009 50,145t -12% 25,000t 25,145t

2010 30,258t -40% 62,000t (31,742t)

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Page 12: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

REO Prices Over The Last 12 Months

CeO2 US$/t Dy2O3 US$/kg La2O3 US$/t

Nd2O3 US$/t Sm2O3 US$/t Eu2O3 US$/kg

Source: Asian Metal

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Page 13: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

If Not China Then Where?Sample of Known RE Deposits

Source: Mariano

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Page 14: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Global Rare Earth Projects Under Development

Thor Lake TSX:AVLKvanefjeld ASX:GGG

Nolan’s Bore ASX:ARU

Dubbo ASX:ALKMount Weld ASX:LYC

Dong Pao-Sojitsu/Toyota Vietnam

Steenkampskraal TSXV:GWG

Mountain Pass, CA Molycorp

Hoidas Lake TSXV:GWGBayan Obo China

Potential Production by 2012/2013 Potential Production by 2014/2015

A limited number of Rare Earth deposits with 2014/2015 production potential

Mianning

Ionic Clays

Kutessay-TSXV:SRU

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Page 15: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Global Rare Earth Projects Under DevelopmentHonourable Mention: Production 2015+ ?

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Bokan TSXV:UCU

Bear Lodge TSXV:RES

Strange Lake TSXV:QRM

Sarfartoq TSXV:HUD

Wigu Hill Montero (private)

Zandkopsdrift Frontier (private)

Kangankunde ASX:LYC

Nora Karr TSXV:TSM

Page 16: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Where Will Rare Earths Come From?Supply Sources (t REO)

Source: 2005-2009, IMCOA; 2010, Metal Pages and Lynas Corp.

Location 2010 2014

Baotou 55,000 60,000

Sichuan 10,000 15,000

Ionic Clays 45,000 40,000

Mountain Pass 3,000 19,000

Mount Weld - 22,000

Recycling 5,000 6,000

Russia 4,000 4,000

India 3,000 4,000

Vietnam - 5,000

Steenkampskraal - 2,700

TOTAL 125,000 177,700

DEMAND 134,000 182,000

IMBALANCE (9,000) (4,300)

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Page 17: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Projected Shortages 2014

Source: IMCOA; Lynas Corp.

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2014 Supply/Demand Imbalance         

    Demand Supply  

Oxide   t REO t REO Imbalance         

La2O3   51,050 47,801 -3,249

CeO2   65,750 71,435 5,685

Pr6O11   8,900 8,707 -193

Nd2O3   35,900 28,965 -6,935

Sm2O3   1,390 3,554 2,164

Eu2O3   840 711 -129

Gd2O3   2,300 2,666 366

Tb4O7   590 355 -235

Dy2O3   2,040 1,599 -441

Er2O3   940 889 -52

Y2O3   12,100 10,129 -1,971

Ho-Tm-Yb-Lu   200 889 689

         

    182,000 177,700 -4,300

         

Page 18: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Attributes: Current RE ProjectsProject Resource/

Reserve (Mt REO)

Annual Prod’n (t REO)

Capex( US$million)

CeO2 (t) Nd2O3 (t) Dy2O3 (t)

Bayan Obo 56 60,000 N/A 30,000 10,000 600

Mtn Pass 1 19,000 $550 9,700 313 (metal) nil

Mt. Weld 1.2 20,000 $650 9,300 3,700 25

Nolans 1.0 20,000 $420 9,600 4,300 70

Thor Lake 0.3 10,000 $900 3,400 1,700 320

Dubbo 0.7 2,600 $150 960 370 50

Kvanefjeld 2.6 44,000 $2,300 18,000 5,600 480

Dong Pao 0.8 7,000 $50 2,500 800 5

Hoidas Lake 0.1 5,000 $150 2,300 1,000 18

Steenkampskraal

0.03 2,700 $45 1,200 450 18

Source: IMCOA, Company filings, websites and industry journals

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Page 19: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Optimistic Supply/Demand Imbalance 2014Total REO t CeO2 t Nd2O3 t Dy2O3 t

Projected (Shortage) Surplus

(4,300) 5,685 (6,935) (441)

Additional Projects 40,300 16,260 7,370 458

Adjusted (Shortage) Surplus

36,000 21,946 435 17

FOR NdFeB MATERIALS IT WILL BE CLOSE!

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Page 20: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

OBSERVATIONS• There is definitely a need to develop RE sources outside China for

PM materials. It’s prudent for both China and ROW.

• In the long term there are likely enough RE resources to supply the global RE market.

• Sources of PM materials are likely to remain tight in the near term given that it takes 7 to 10 years, on average, to bring mining projects on stream, (in mining-friendly jurisdictions!).

• The world likely does not need any more large “LREE” projects. The focus should be on projects that can supply significant “HREE” per tonne mined. Balance is important.

• It is not enough just to bring RE sources on stream. We must also develop separating and metal making capability.

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Page 21: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

TSX.V: GWG / OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected]

THANK YOU

Page 22: Gary Billingsley: Outlook for Rare Earths (Day 1 - Session 1: Strategic metals and the clean-tech revolution)

Other sponsors & participating organisations:

GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010

Lead sponsors:

Media partners: