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    Game analysis A road map to winIradge Ahrabi-Fard University of Northern Iowa

    Mark Jacobson University of Northern IowaJose Manuel Palao, Spain

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    What are statistics? Stats are a numerical study of the players' and

    teams' actions in order to make decisions based on their abilities

    Volleyball Analysis

    Theoretical Review

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    Reference values (trainingand competition)

    New perspective forgame analysis

    Volleyball analysis (Proposal)

    Serve (S) At tack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Team As Points = S + A + B + E

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    Ex. Box score

    Purpose of statistics => Objective idea of player and team actions in competition

    Info to press and fans

    Occurrence and efficacy of skills

    Analysis of actions in relation to

    their effect on the game and the

    following action

    Own team

    Volleyball Analysis

    Theoretical Review

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    Winning Philosophical StrategyEarn point to get to30/25 sooner than the opponent

    Stop or slow down the opponent point earning to reach30/25 before your team

    Both game strategies are important. Unless a

    team develops an effective capability to earn

    point while stopping or slowing down the

    opponent to get to 30/25 sooner, winning

    cannot be predictable

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    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Opponent errors (E)

    Team's Points = Serve + Attack + Block + Opp. Errors

    WAYS TO OBTAIN POINTS IN VOLLEYBALL

    Volleyball Analysis

    Theoretical Review

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    Team As Points > Team Bs Points

    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Team As Points = S + A + B + E

    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Team Bs Points = S + A + B + E

    Volleyball Analysis

    Theoretical Review

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    Analyzing the official score stat sheet (new method)

    New method of stat gathering design

    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Team As Points = S + A + B + E

    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Team Bs Points = S + A + B + E

    Volleyball Analysis

    Theoretical Review

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    Analyzing the official score stat sheet

    (with a more details method)

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    Ind. effort

    Teams points = Serve + Attack + Block + Op. Errors

    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Opp. errors (E)

    Unforced error

    (serve E & BHE)

    Forced error

    Attack E, Block E

    Volleyball analysis (Theoretical review)

    Team effortInd. & team

    effort

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    Opponents Error

    Opponents unforced error:Opponent serve error

    Opponents ball-handling error

    Opponents forced error: Attack error

    Block error

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    Data Gathering Design

    From Official Stat SheetTeam A

    Earned Points Oppts Unforced E Oppts Forced ErrorAtt.K BA SA Oppt SE Oppt BHE Oppt Att. E Oppt. BE

    Team B

    Earned Points Oppts Unforced E Oppts Forced ErrorAtt.K BA SA Oppt SE Oppt BHE Oppt Att. E Oppt. BE

    The above data gathering method keep data

    for each game and total for the entire match result

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    Result Analysis - Sample Selection University level 11 matches were analyzed

    3 matches won 3-0 3 matches lost 0-3

    20 games from five 5 game matches(5th games were excluded)

    Total of 38 games 19 winning and 19 losing games

    High school 10 matches Total of 33 games

    (7 matches in 3 and 3 matches in 4)

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    Volleyball Analysis

    General Findings (Point Earning Priorities)

    Attack kill

    Opponents attack and block error (forced error)

    Opponents serve and ball handling error (unforced error)

    Serve or block ace (forced error)

    Attack kill

    Opponents

    Forced Error

    Opponents

    Unforced Error

    Serve and

    Block Ace

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    Findings Over 80 percent of points were from team attack and

    opponents error Attack kill games won 56.5

    Attack kill games lost 57.9

    Opposition error team won 36.1

    Opposition error team lost 31.6 Winning and losing did not have proportion difference of

    attack kill

    There was a significant difference in opponents error

    Opponents forced error was much higher than their unforcederror

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    Volleyball Analysis

    Reference Values

    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Opp. errors

    Games lost 4.4% 56.5% 3.0% 36.1%

    Games won 4.5% 57.9% 6.0% 31.6%

    Attack (A) Opp. Attack errors Pts. relative attack

    Games lost 56.5% 17.5 points (80.4%)

    Games won 57.9% 7.1 points 24.1 points (82.7%)

    Rest of points (Aces, blocks,and rest of opp. errors)

    * No Significantdifference found in T

    Test for two related

    samples

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    Statistical Analysis of Offense Difference

    T test out put indication:

    Game lost .6604Game won .5701

    Difference 0f .09023 alpha level of 90%

    Not enough to establish a 95% level of confidence

    The result shows offensive attack could

    not be the cause of loss

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    Opponents Contribution

    Opponents unforced error: Opponents SE+BHE=3.2 (WG)

    Opponents SE+BHE=2.5 (LG)

    Opponents forced error: Opponents AE+BE=7.7 (WG)

    Opponents AE+BE=6.0 (LG)

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    Statistical Analysis of Opponents

    Forced Error Difference

    T test out put indication:

    Game lost .6998Game won .8046

    Difference of -.10475 almost 10.5% higher in games

    wonP value0.044

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    1,0 1,3 0,50,5

    2,75,5

    12,7

    0,60,52,0

    7,1

    17,1

    0,0

    2,0

    4,0

    6,0

    8,0

    10,0

    12,0

    14,0

    16,018,0

    AK SA Op_AE Op_SE Op_BHE Op_BE

    Lost Won

    COLLEGE LEVEL

    Volleyball Analysis

    Reference Values

    *

    Serve Ace Attack Kill Block A Opp. errors

    Games lost 4.4% 56.5% 3.0% 36.1%

    Games won 4.5% 57.9% 6.0% 31.6%

    * Significant differences found in T Test for two related samples

    Attack Kill Service ace Opp. Attack E Opp. Serve E BHE Opp. Block E

    *

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    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Team As Points = S + A + B + E

    Error (point opp team)Opp attack

    opportunityLimited attack

    Attack

    opportunityPoint analyzed team

    - 1 -.25 0 +.25 + 1

    Volleyball analysis (Proposal)

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    More Intricate Analysis Required New value system for earning points

    Attack Block

    Serve

    Understanding of Influencingopponents error

    Block influence on oppositions attack

    Serve influence on oppositions attack

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    Serve (S) At tack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Teams points = S + A + B + E

    Error attack No limited attack Limited attack No attack Kill

    -1 -0.25 0 +0.25 +1

    Volleyball analysis (Proposal)

    Data Gathering Offense

    Dig

    Attack

    Block

    Dig

    Attack

    Block

    Dig

    Attack

    Block

    X Dig

    At tack

    Block

    Dig

    Attack

    BlockX

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    Serve (S) At tack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Teams points = S + A + B + E

    Volleyball analysis (Proposal)

    Offense Sophistication

    Dig

    Serve/Pass Attack

    In System

    # of Blockers

    Sophisticated

    One or no Block

    Sophistication Level

    Serve/Pass Attack

    Out of System

    # of Blockers# of Blockers

    # of Blockers

    Dig AttackIn System

    Dig AttackOut of System

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    Serve (S)Attack (A) Block (B)

    Op. errors (E)

    Teams points = S + A + B + E

    ErrorIn system

    No limited attack

    Out of system

    Limited attackNo attack Ace

    -1 -0.25 0 +0.25 +1

    Serve

    Pass

    Serve

    Pass X

    Serve

    Pass

    X

    Serve

    Pass

    Serve

    Volleyball analysis (Proposal)

    Serve Influence

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    Serve General Analysis Data range:

    SA = 1Serve result in no attack opportunity =+.25

    Serve causes out of system attack opportunity =0

    Serve provides the opponent with an in system attackopportunity =-.25

    Serve error =-1

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    Earning point Serve Strategy

    Individual Capability

    Serve ace from: Position serve

    Tough serve

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    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Teams points = S + A + B + E

    Out of system or in system

    block

    - Blocker(s) L. M. & R

    - Rotations

    - Blocking the zone or area

    of the net

    - 1 B = one block

    - OB = out of posit ion block

    - LB = late block

    Volleyball analysis (Proposal)

    Block Out of System In System

    Attack

    One block

    X

    Dig

    Attack

    Late block

    Dig

    Attack

    Out of position block

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    Block AceTeam Capability

    Block ace Rotation

    Area of the block

    Type of block Out of system 1B, LB, OP

    Solo BS

    B (2 or 3 in system block)

    Ratio of block over

    Ratio of soft block

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    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Teams points = S + A + B + E

    Error No limited attack Limited attack No attack Point

    -1 -0.25 0 +0.25 +1

    Components of block over

    evaluation

    - Blocker(s) L. M. & R

    - Rotations

    - Blocking the zone or area

    of the net

    Volleyball analysis (Proposal)

    Block Over

    Attack

    Block

    Dig

    Attack

    Block

    Dig

    Attack

    Block

    X

    X

    Dig

    Attack

    Block

    Dig

    Attack

    Block

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    Serve (S) Attack (A) Block (B) Op. errors (E)

    Teams points = S + A + B + E

    Error No attackOut of system

    limited attackIn stem full attack

    -1 -0.25 0 +.25

    Components of soft block

    evaluation

    - Blocker(s) L. M. & R

    - Rotations

    - Blocking the zone or area

    of the net

    Volleyball analysis (Proposal)

    In System Soft Block

    Attack

    Soft block

    Dig

    Attack

    Soft block

    X

    Dig

    Attack

    Soft block

    Dig

    Attack

    Soft block

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    Studied variables were way to obtain & probability of obtaining points in relation to result

    Volleyball analysis (Reference values)

    11 matches of women's teams of

    Division I NCAA were analyzed

    (season 2007)

    38 games were studied

    10 matches of female varsity

    teams in Iowa were analyzed

    (season 2007)

    35 games were studied

    COLLEGE LEVELHIGH SCHOOL LEVEL

    A descriptive, transversal, and correlation design was used.

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    Serve Analysis

    Teams that were in the study could improve

    their winning chances by improving their

    serve influence of opponents attack

    E i i S S

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    Earning point Serve Strategy

    Individual Capability

    The probability added values

    prioritizes the servers accordingto their influence on the

    opponents attack ability

    Servers that provide more than

    80 % of 0 or -.25 values should

    be instructed to avoid serve error

    from tough serve and resort toposition serving

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    Serve General Analysis

    Very rare to find 1+.25> -1+0+-.25 Calculate the number of serves of each server in each

    game

    Total value of each server 1+.25> -1+0+-.25

    Prioritize your servers according to who influences

    opponents attack most least

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    Serve General Analysis Analyzing serve influencing the opponents

    attack error independently from block

    6 servers serve ratio (example):

    #10 3 serves

    #11 4 serve

    #12 7 serve #11 3 serve

    #11 8 serve

    #11 5 serve

    The number of serves indicate the strength ofrotation

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    Serve General Analysis 6 servers serve ratio (example):

    #10 3 serves

    #11 4 serve

    #12 7 serve

    #11 3 serve

    #11 8 serve

    #11 5 serve

    Coach can play with line up, finding best & weakest rotations

    Manipulate line up to put best server with best front row(increasing point earning capability getting to 30/25 sooner)

    Manipulate line up to put best server with weakest front row(increasing side out chance of that rotation)

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    Team Block Capability

    Evaluate the ratio of out of

    system and in systemblocks against a certainopponent

    Evaluate the blockers ratioof Block over and softblock and make instructionof block action during

    high block and morepenetration during regularblock

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    Attack Evaluation

    Adding probable points gave several statistically

    significant values UNI in the 11 matches had significantly higher

    proportion of attack kills at home than in the road

    UNI had less sophistication in their offense during thegames that they did not go beyond 20

    Oppositions had more serve influence on their attack

    during the losing games than tUNI had on the

    opposition

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    Attack Evaluation

    Team under study did not have much success

    during dig attack with sophistication. More

    mobility of middle players could berecommended and designed

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    HIGH SCHOOL LEVEL SUMMERY

    Volleyball Analysis (Reference values)

    - Problems with data stabilization (large differences between teams).

    - Analysis of the probability of the actions does not help to predict the

    result of the game.

    - Percentage of attack points per team lower than at college level.

    - Offense is the most important point earner.

    - At lower level, more points are obtained from opponent error.

    - Winning teams obtained more points by themselves than losing teams.

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    Volleyball Analysis (Conclusions)

    - At lower levels, opponent error is more important (in the sample

    studied).

    - The second largest amount of points is from opponent error.

    - Offense is the most important point earner.

    > 80%

    - Block and serve influence the opponents forced error the second

    highest game earning points (in the sample studied).

    - More studies (and data) are needed to establish solid conclusions and

    reference values.

    - At higher levels, more information is obtained with the analysis of the

    probability of the actions to predict detail performance outcome.

    - Teams have to be evaluated on the basis of their own specification.

    COLLEGE LEVEL SUMMERY

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    More Studies - Larger Sample

    I am looking for institutions who

    are willing to join me in

    continue this study in largersample with more accurate

    measurement tools

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    Game analysis - A road map to win

    THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

    ANY QUESTIONS?