Cal

low

ay C

ou

nty

9

3 E

xten

sio

n W

ay

Mu

rray

, KY

42

07

1

RET

UR

N S

ERV

ICE

REQ

UES

TED

NO

NP

RO

FIT

OR

G

US

PO

STA

GE

PA

ID

MU

RR

AY,

KY

PER

MIT

#4

31

Agent Notes

Over the past few seasons, we have been short staffed in our

office and have fallen behind on the quality of our Ag News-

letters. Please accept my apologies. We will be moving forward

with an updated version that I hope you will enjoy reading once a

quarter.

In the pages to follow you will find articles written by University of Kentucky

Specialists, staff, and myself. I have also included flyers for upcoming events and

activities throughout our region. If you have any questions or concerns about

the articles or events, please feel free to contact me.

Back to our office staff, we have acquired several new talented individuals, and I

would like to introduce you to them. Katie Powell is our new staff assistant. She

started in January of 2018 and has worked very hard to assist through all of our

moving and restructuring. Kelly Bolls Mackey started in August 2018 and is our

new FCS agent. She is working tirelessly to bring new life to our FCS program

that was without an agent for over three years. Last but not least is Ashley Cox.

She is in a new position that was created by our local board to support our 4-H

program. Ashley started as the 4-H Program Assistant in June and has been

learning the ropes.

Thank you for taking time to read this newsletter, if you have questions please

do not hesitate to give me a call.

Matt Chadwick, Calloway County Agriculture and Natural Resources Agent

Kelly Mackey FCS Agent

Katie Powell Extension Staff Assistant

Ashley Cox 4-H Program Assistant

Newsletter EEO Annual Disclosure: The College of Agriculture, Food and Environment is an Equal Oppor-tunity Organization with respect to education and employment and authorization to provide research, education information and other ser-vices only to individuals and institutions that function without regard to economic or social status and will not discriminate on the bases of race, color, ethnic origin, creed, religion, political belief, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, marital status, genetic information, age, veteran status, or physical or mental disability. Inquiries regarding compliance with Title VI and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Title IX of the Educational Amendments, Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act and other related matter should be directed to Equal Opportunity Office, College of Agriculture, Food and Environment, University of Kentucky, Room S-105, Agriculture Science Building, North Lexington, Kentucky 40546.

Why did I receive this Newsletter? If you are asking yourself that question, please call our

office at 270-753-1452, our mailing list have become dated

and we are aware they need updating. Please let us know

if you wish to be removed.

Thank you– Matt

10 1

2 9

As a farmer, you are often placed in areas and situations where you are

the only one around, whether that maybe on a rural farm road or in the

middle of a corn field. You face very unique situations that others do

not experience or understand. On the same note, farmers are by nature

helpers. You are the back bone and life blood of our rural communities.

With those things in mind, I have surveyed about 50 folks in our rural

area about what tools they need to help them help our community.

From those responses, I have created the “Farmer=Leader” series.

These classes consist of traditional ag topics paired with a matching

short leadership session. I have asked fellow farmers to come and share

these leadership topics with you. They have been asked to keep it short

and speak your language! My hope is to give you some quick tools that

you can keep in your back pocket to pull out when you need them. If

you have questions, ideas for topics, or concerns, you can always give

me a call. –Matt

Growing Hemp In 2020

Bob Peirce

November 14th 6:00PM

Mentoring Young/

New Farmers Dr. Tony Brannon

Grain Market Update

Todd Davis

October 3rd 6:00PM

Helping Others Through Crisis Adam Barnes

Gearing Up for Grazing

Chris Teutsch January 21st

6:00PM

TBA

Watch for Fall Armyworm in Pastures Source: Ric Bessin, Extension Entomologist

Fall armyworm is a recurring pest of pastures, and there have been sev-eral outbreaks in pastures the past few years. As we move into autumn, risk of fall armyworm moving into Kentucky from southern areas in-creases. Growers managing pastures should begin watching for early stag-es of fall armyworm. Pay particular attention to areas where the grass may seem to thin-out or turn brown. Fall armyworm damage may resemble drought stress. Droughty condi-tions, such as has occurred in August, are favorable for fall armyworm.

Fall armyworm doesn’t survive freezes in winter in Kentucky and must recolonize each year from southern areas in Florida and southern Tex-as. While there can be 3 or 4 generations in the South, Kentucky typical-ly has only one or two generations. There have been some reports of increasing fall armyworm numbers in states to our south this summer.

Scouting

Catching fall armyworm in its early stages greatly reduces damage to pas-tures and hay. While damage by fall armyworm may appear to happen overnight, feeding by young stages is minimal compared to losses by 5th and 6th instar larvae. Even though time to reach the 5th instar is similar

to the time spent as a 5th and 6th instar, these larger larvae consume 10 or more times the amount of food consumed by young stages. As larvae may hide during the hottest part of the day, the best time to scout for fall armyworm in pastures is into late morning or in late afternoon. A sweep net can be used to locate early infestations of fall armyworm. If you find fall armyworm, the next step would be to count the number per square foot. If more than two to three per square foot are found, they should be controlled with an insecticide or the field should be cut.

3 8

Late cut hay is a fact of life in Kentucky. There are worse things. Drought, for example. It is no failure if some first cuttings of hay are late. Or rain damaged for that matter. The list of things that have to ‘get done’ in May never ends for the part-time, diversified farmers that form the bulk of the beef cattle producers in Kentucky. Farmers face a never-ending set of ‘what to do first’ decisions. Something has to be second, or third. So late cuttings of hay happen. The real mistake is to let a less-than-perfect first cutting stop the conversation hay management because a farmer thinks we in Extension are disappointed. Frankly, it is amazing that anybody in Kentucky gets a good first cutting of hay in the barn. Next steps if you think your first cutting is just ‘cow hay’ The first thing to do is to get a representative core sample and send it to a certified lab for analysis. It is best but not absolutely necessary if it goes through the sweat before taking the sample. Next, store the hay inside if possible, but at least get it off the ground (on rock, pallets and so on). If you are going to have more than one cutting or hay from other fields, store so this lot of hay can be accessed and fed as needed. Once the re-sults are back, do some planning with the UK Beef Cow Supplementation Tool (http://forage-supplement-tool.ca.uky.edu/). This very simple tool will let you determine what you need to feed with your ‘cow hay’ to meet nutritional needs. Knowing your needs early can let you work with your supplier to secure best pricing. This supplement tool calculates an intake figure from the total fiber in the hay, but you need to make sure actual consumption matches or exceeds the estimates from the tool. You may need to get some current weights for hay bales so you can back calculate intake from hay disappearance. Don’t forget to take into account the waste that happens, even if this is only a guess. The tool also cannot take into account changing energy needs with weather. As a guide, every 10 degree drop below the ‘thermo-neutral’ temperature increases energy needs by 5%. And the thermo-neutral tem-perature is greatly affected by whether the hair on the cow is wet.

My first cutting is just ‘cow hay’ – now what? Dr. Jimmy Henning, Forage Extension Specialist, University of Kentucky

(First published in May 30 issue, Farmer’s Pride).

4 7

The August report also provided the first yield projections for the 2019 corn and soybean crops. Both figures report the 2019 yield projection with the change from last year. For corn, the top-five corn states are projected to have -5 (Iowa), -6 (Nebraska), -9 (Minnesota), -23 (Indiana), and -29 (Illinois) lower yields from last year. Ohio, ranked 8th in corn production, is also projected to have a yield that is 27 bush-els/acre lower than last year. Those states with projected yields above last year are outside of the core producing area like Texas (+37), and Missouri (+20).

Soybean yields are projected to be lower than 2018 in the top-five states with Minnesota (-5), Iowa (-2), Nebraska (-1), Illinois (-10), and Indiana (-9) below their 2018 yields. Current yield projections are for lower yields for most of the top eighteen states surveyed by NASS, except Kentucky (+1) and Tennessee (+4).

One issue that caused confusion and frustration from the August series of reports is the 2019 FSA prevented planting acres for 2019. Cur-rently, FSA reports 11.2 million corn acres, 4.35 million soybean acres, and 2.2 million wheat acres as prevented planting. FSA has released prevented planting data since 2007, with the average amount for corn, soybean, and wheat at 3.8 million acres for the 2007-2018 crop years. This large amount of prevented planting implies that farmers intended to plant over 101 million corn acres in 2019. In retrospect, it is more likely that corn farmers chose to file prevented planting crop insurance because of the larger prevented planting indemnity instead of mudding in a late corn crop or planting an unprofitable soybean crop. When comparing the total NASS planted acres for the top 12 row crops and include the FSA prevented planting acres for those 12 crops, the total area for 2019 is similar to the area in 2013 and 2014 (Figure 6).

240

245

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

NASS Plant FSA Prev Plant

Figure 6. Total NASS Planted Area and FSA Prevented Planted Acres for 12 Major Row Crops for 2007-2019 (Million Acres).

The thermo-neutral temperature for cows with dry hair coats is 18 F, but 55 F when that hair is wet. So the energy needs for cows when it is 35 F and raining is 10% higher than that predicted by the tool (55 – 35 is 20 and each 10 degree change means 5% more energy). Thinking back, we had a lot of 35 F and rainy days last winter, and cows lost a lot of condition. Another idea - Make some serious plans to stockpile tall fescue. A well-managed (not overgrazed) field of tall fescue that is rested from mid-summer into the fall and fertilized with 60 lb of N in mid-August can pro-vide better quality feed for cattle than any hay you will likely produce this summer. Grazing stockpiled fescue will lessen days where hay is neces-sary. Strip grazing the stockpiled fescue with make this high quality forage last longer (due to less waste) and quite possibly reduce mud caused from bale feeding later in the winter. Remember, just because you made ‘cow hay’ does not mean the forage conversation is over. Not by a long shot. Happy Foraging.

Late cut or rain damaged first cuttings can still be part of a sound feeding pro-gram for your beef cows. Don’t let a less-than-perfect first cutting stop the conversation on hay testing, feeding and forage management.

5 6

In a typical year, the August Crop Production report provides insight into the size of the corn and soybean crops. The historically late-planted corn and soybean crops have created uncertainty about the planted area and yield potential. The August reports included a re-survey of planted area in states that account for 85% of U.S. corn and soybean production. The August Crop Production report did not incor-porate the in-field measurements of plant population, ear count or pod count as in previous years. The report reflects analyses of satellite imagery and farmer surveys. As a result, the markets still face uncer-tainty regarding yield and harvested area.

Analysts surveyed before the release expected the 2019 corn crop to be 13.16 billion bushels, which would be 711 million bushels lower than the July estimate and 1.26 billion bushels lower than the 2018 crop. USDA currently pegs the 2019 corn crop at 13.9 billion bushels, which is 736 million bushels above the average analyst ex-pectation. If realized, the 2019 corn crop would be 520 million bushels smaller than last year’s crop.

USDA’s re-surveying of corn planted area projects 2019 corn area at 90 million acres, which is 1.7 million acres less than measured by the June Acreage survey. Figure 1 illustrates the change in planted corn area from 2018 to 2019 and the 2019 planted area for selected states. Kansas increased corn planted area by 950 thousand acres from 2018 to 1.6 million acres. The top-five corn-producing states, colored green in Figure 1, increased corn area by 250 thousand acres from 2018. Iowa and Nebraska both increased area by 400 thousand acres, while Illinois and Indiana reduced corn area by 300 and 250 thousand acres, respectively. USDA projects U.S. corn planted area to be 900 thousand acres above last year’s planted area. Figure 1 demonstrates that most of the planted area increase occurred outside of the top-five corn-producing states. Similarly, most of the reduction in the planted area occurred outside of the core corn growing area.

August Crop Production Report Raises Questions about the Corn and Soybean Crops

Source: Dr. Todd Davis Assistant Extension Professor

Figure 1. 2019 Corn Area (Million Acres) and Change in Planted Area (1,000 Acres) from 2018 to 2019.

1.6+950

13.6+400

10.0+400

3.5+350

2.5+300

1.6+260

1.0+230

0.7+170

0.8+120

0.6+110 7.9

+0

1.0-130 5.1

-2503.3

-25010.7-300

2.0-300

2.8-700 4.5

-800-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

+0

+200

+400

+600

+800

+1,000

+1,200

KA

NSA

S (#7

)

IOW

A (#

1)

NEB

RA

SKA

(#3

)

NO

RT

H D

AK

OTA

(#12

)

TEX

AS (#

13

)

KE

NT

UC

KY (#1

4)

TEN

NE

SSEE (#1

7)

MISSISSIP

PI (#

18

)

AR

KA

NSA

S (#2

1)

LOU

ISIAN

A (#

22)

MIN

NE

SOTA

(#4)

NEW

YOR

K (#

20

)

IND

IAN

A (#

5)

MISSO

UR

I (#1

0)

ILLINO

IS (#2)

MIC

HIG

AN

(#11

)

OH

IO (#

8)

SOU

TH D

AK

OTA

(#6)

2019 Corn Area (Million Acres) and Change in Corn Planted Area (1,000 Acres) from 2018 to 2019

USDA surprised the market by estimating 2019 soybean planted area at 76.7 million acres, which is 12.5 million acres less than the 2018 crop. Analysts surveyed before the report release expected the 2019 soybean crop at 3.78 billion bushels, which would be 771 million bush-els smaller than the 2018 crop. USDA currently pegs the 2019 soybean crop at 3.68 billion bushels, which would be 874 million bushels less than the 2018 crop if realized.

South Dakota has the largest reduction in corn area from 2019 (-800 thousand, Figure 1), and the largest reduction in soybean area at -2.15 million acres (Figure 2). Figure 2 illustrates that the soybean area is reduced in the top 20 soybean-producing states for 2019. The top-five soybean-producing states, colored green, reduced soybean plantings by 3.75 million acres from last year (Figure 2). The reduced soybean area and late planting dates in the key states help drive the projected 864 million bushel decline in soybean production.

Continued on page 7