fy2010 business environment and 2010年3月期事業環境と業績 …
TRANSCRIPT
CORP IR / May 14, 2009
25
2010年3月期事業環境と業績予想
代表取締役社長 竹中 博司
2009年5月14日May 14, 2009
Hiroshi Takenaka, President
FY2010: April 1, 2009 – March 31, 2010
FY2010 Business Environment and Financial Estimates
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Overview► The semiconductor and FPD markets will continue to expand in three
dimensions:• Regions: Shift from developed countries to high population Asia,
emerging countries• Applications: Shift from mobile devices to medical, communications and
other social infrastructure• Performance: Faster devices with larger memory, lower energy
consumption► A production equipment industry that supports technological innovation of
electronics will make this expansion a reality, and our industry will continue to grow with cyclical peaks and troughs
Over nearly half a century in the production equipment business, TEL has built absolute trust with customers through its pre-eminent technology development capability.We will continue to leverage these comprehensive strengths to grow our business.
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Changing SPE environment
Process technology: Shrinkage; Shift to low powerconsumption
Customers: Accelerated oligopolySPE market: Shift to AsiaEquipment: Pursuit of higher productivity,
environment-friendly equipmentPost sales: Shift to longer life cycles of equipment
Identifying market changes to enhance our position
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HighHigh--kk
Double Double patterningpatterning 3DI3DI
Emerging Emerging MemoryMemory LowLow--kk
Carbon Carbon nanonano tubetubeAdvanced Advanced capacitorcapacitor
Charge trapCharge trap GeGe transistortransistor
EUVEUV
3D / 3D / Vertical transistorVertical transistor
InterconnectInterconnect( ( BarrierBarrier/ /
SeedSeed ))
Shrinkage / Low Power ConsumptionShrinkage / Low Power Consumption
MEMORYMEMORY LOGICLOGIC
SPE technological innovation will continue
Intense pursuit of scaling and lower power consumption
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Worldwide TEL products in operation
50,000 systems
On-call service
Parts/Consumables
Service contract
Preventive maintenance
Repair
ModificationEnvironment-friendly
Refurbish
Relocation
Overhaul
Strengthening post sales operations
Discover new business opportunities, respond to demand for long-life equipment
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Joint development with SHARP• Plasma CVD system for thin-film silicon PV• TEL: joint development, manufacturing and sales
Alliance with Oerlikon Solar• End-to-end thin-film silicon PV solutions • TEL: representative in Asia & Oceania
Independent development by TEL
Strengthening PV Production Equipment business
PVE business to form our third pillar alongside SPE and FPD
TEL PVE business program:
PV: Photovoltaic
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FY2009 OverviewFY2009: April 1, 2008 – March 31, 2009
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► Stayed profitable by rapidly responding to violent market changes• Year-on-year fixed-cost cuts of 40 billion yen
► Maintained a strong balance sheet• Operating cash flow: 81 billion yen• Year end cash* position 210.1 billion yen; D/E ratio 0.7%
► Sustained R&D investment and new product creation• R&D expenses: 60.9 billion yen• Launched new model SPE and 10th gen. FPD production equipment• Established double patterning technology for volume production
► Progressed PVE business• Formed strategic alliance with Oerlikon Solar
FY2009 overview
* Cash = Cash & Deposits + certificates of deposit (short-term securities)
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62.3%
50.6%
59.8%
46.1%
29.9%
17.3%
8.7%6.7%0.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
D/E ratio
(Billion of Yen)
Net debt 107.3 billion yen
207.7
155.7 151.3
127.0
99.4
65.1
40.2 36.0
65.348.4 52.9
42.6
115.4
140.0 134.3
203.5
3.8
210.1
0
100
200
300
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
Interest-bearing debt
Cash & Deposits + Certificates of Deposit
Net cash 206.3 billion yen
Maintained a strong balance sheet
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Scrubber SystemNS300+Single Wafer Deposition System
TriasTM SPAi
MEMS TesterTEMEON™-C
Wafer ProberWDFTM12DPWafer Prober
Precio octoTM
PFC Abatement SystemPA-01T
Coater / DeveloperCLEAN TRACKTM
LITHIUS ProTM V
FY2009 new products
Aiming for higher productivity and environmental friendliness
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LLEIsland / Line & Space (Isolation, Gate, Metal 1…)
LELE SpacerLELE, LLEHole (Contact, Via…)
42nm Line
22nm Line
Established double patterning technology
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TEL as the exclusive representative (sales, start-up and customer support) for end-to-end thin-film silicon PV solutions
Territory: Asia including Japan and Oceania
Expand business in the high growth Asian market
World No. 1 in cumulative shipments of E2E thin-film silicon PV systems
Superior technology, and trusted customer support + sales capability
Strategic alliance with Oerlikon Solar
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Business Environment
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► SPE capexTough environment for orders will continue, but a number of customers’
investment projects for shrinkage coming up• NAND: Due to active smart-phone demand, commencing 30nm investment• DRAM: All the major players will commence 50nm investment for shrinkage• LOGIC/Foundries: Inventory adjustment progressing, 45nm/32nm
investment restarting
► FPD capexProduction is bottoming out due to TV demand from China, recovery is expected, but slow
► PV capexSlight slowdown due to worsening worldwide economy and toning down of government support measures, but major expectations for future growth
Calendar 2009 business environment
CORP IR / May 14, 2009
39Source: TEL Marketing estimates
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
07/Q
1 Q2 Q3 Q408
/Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
09/Q
1 Q2 Q3 Q4
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
07/Q
1 Q2 Q3 Q408
/Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
09/Q
1 Q2 Q3 Q4
NAND
DRAM
Oversupply
Shortage
OversupplyShortage
(CY)
(CY)
Memory supply/demand balance
Supply shortages (NAND in 09/Q2, DRAM in 09/Q3) are creating large appetite for investment
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Fab utilization and investment for memory
Following the recovery of foundry capacity utilization, NAND andDRAM will see active investment for shrinkage
Source: TEL marketing estimates
Output (k wafer)DRAM40nm pilot
DRAM50nmNAND
30nm
Utilization Ave.
Forecast
Utilization rate recovery
200
400
600
NANDinvestment for
shrinkage
DRAMinvestment for
shrinkage
(CY)
50%60%70%80%90%
100%110%120%130%
Q3/08
Q41Q
/09 2Q 3Q 4Q1Q
/10 2Q
Utilization
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FY2010 Financial Estimates
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20.437.5
6.40.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
7-9/
00
10-1
2/ 0
01-
3/01
4-6/
017-
9/01
10-1
2/01
1-3/
024-
6/02
7-9/
0210
-12/
021-
3/03
4-6/
037-
9/03
10-1
2/03
1-3/
044-
6/04
7-9/
0410
-12/
041-
3/05
4-6/
057-
9/05
10-1
2/05
1-3/
064-
6/06
7-9/
0610
-12/
061-
3/07
4-6/
077-
9/ 0
710
-12/
071-
3/08
4-6/
087-
9/ 0
810
-12/
081-
3/09
FPD/PVESemiconductor Production Equipment (SPE)
* Figures until 10-12/05 are non-consolidated, figures from Jan-Mar 2006 are consolidated.* Main difference between consolidated and non-consolidated: Consolidated figures include post-sales orders at overseas
subsidiaries.
(Billions of Yen)1-3/09SPE: 20.4 bil yenFPD/PVE: 6.4 bil yenTotal: 26.9 bil yen
Quarterly SPE+FPD/PVE Orders
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84424Cash dividends per share (yen)
--61.0 (-20.3)-20.0 (-11.5)-41.0 (-32.5)20.5 (4.0)Ordinary income
--
--100%
-18%-33%-50%-41%
YoYchange
FY2010(E)
-38.0 (-12.7)-61.0 (-20.3)
-63.0 (-21.0)0.0
77.059.0
164.029.588.1
-20.0 (-11.5)-41.0 (-32.5)9.6 (1.9)EBIT
-21.0 (-12.1)-42.0 (-33.3)14.7 (2.9)Operating Income
300.0
Full year
0.040.5
104.0
0.036.529.560.0
0.394.2
325.3
FY2009
OthersEC/CNFPD/PVESPE
-26.0 (-20.6)
126.0
1H
-12.0 ( -6.9)
174.0
2H
7.5 (1.5)
508.0
Full year
Net income
Net Sales
FY2010 Financial Estimates(Billions of yen)
• SPE: Semiconductor Production Equipment, FPD/PVE: Flat Panel Display and Photovoltaic Cell Production Equipment, EC/CN: Electronic Components and Computer Networks
• ( ): Profit ratio
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723.8
417.8460.5
529.6
635.7 673.6
851.9
121.0 1.1 22.2 75.7 143.9 168.4
906.0
508.0
300.014.7
-18.3
-63.0
63.9
16.7%
0.2%4.2%
16.9% 18.6%
2.9%
-21.0%
11.2%10.1%
-4.4%
-500
0
500
1,000
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10(E)
-30%
0%
30%
60%
Net Sales Operating income Oprating margin
Net Sales, Operating Income, Operating Margin
(Billions of Yen)
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54.066
56.952.9 53.8
50.1
44.1 43.849.1
60.9
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
(E)
R&D Expenses
12.3 11.0 9.8 13.3 18.122.727.130.9 10.0
49.4
21.6
26.2 27.324.9
21.419.1 18.8
21.4 23.020.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
(E)
CAPEXDepreciation
R&D Expenses and CAPEX
Active investment in selected areas of R&D; Capex, minimum required
(Billions of yen) (Billions of yen)
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1. Cost cuts of 30 billion yen (to give cumulative 2 year total of 70 billion yen)- Further reduction in general expenses- Restrain capex- Effects from reduced outsources
2. Maximize potential of existing business- Actively strengthen existing business areas
3. Sustained investment in R&D to achieve growth- Selective, active investment in high growth areas
4. Flexible response to market changes- New framework for post-sales business- Strengthen PV business- Greater environmental awareness
Maintain a medium-term perspective while responding to short-term issues
Key Measures for the Current Fiscal Year
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1. SPE orders are showings signs of recovery but this will be reflected in TEL’s revenues from FY2011 and beyond, so TEL’s results will continue to be severely affected this fiscal year
2. Continuing from last fiscal year, we will implement large cost cuts and lower our break-even point
3. We see the changes in the market as opportunities and in the next upturn we will aim to outperform the market growth rate
4. We will strengthen our investment in the R&D and human resources required for growth
Summary
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