futuring
TRANSCRIPT
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 113
Futuring
Part I
Bruce LaDuke Futurist Indianapolis IN
Futuring is an emerging discipline that has come into existence because society is changingradically at all levels and with increasing speed variability and complexity Communities and alltypes of enterprises are beginning to feel the crushing weight of exponential change
We find an example of this change within technology where Moorersquos law accurately predictedthat the number of transistors on a chip will double approximately every two years Figure 11shows that progression in the capabilities of Intel computer chips
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 213
Figure 11
Image Source Intelcom Website httpwwwintelcomtechnologymooreslawindexhtm
But this level of change is not limited to technological change There are simultaneousrevolutions in many categories simultaneously These include
Technology
Information Communication Connectivity PrivacyEnvironment BiodiversityMedical HeathMilitary SecurityEconomyCulture ValuesPoliticsEnergyDemographicBusinessEducationImmigration
If the change was in any one area it might be manageable using traditional approaches Butagain simultaneous changes are pushing the limits of all social systems
Next we will look at exponential change in several different areas The mother of these is amulti-dimensional revolution The Internet is not just a technological changemdashIt also representsa revolution in the connectedness of our culture the ubiquitous presence of information the waywe communicate and threats to our privacy Figure 12 shows the exponential growth ofInternet Users
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 313
Figure 12
As the lsquoglobal villagersquo becomes more and more interconnected national boundaries blurpolitical systems become more and more virtual electronic nations emerge positive andnegative news is instantaneous and the fundamental nature of business is radically changed
One weak signal of the impact of these changes can be found in the realm of politics Ron Paulrepublican presidential candidate raised $43 million on November 5 2007 This was the largessingle day of fundraising by any Republican candidate and the largest single day amount for anycandidate in US history Shortly thereafter he beat his own record by raising $63 million inone day The bulk of this money came from online contributions and online supporters insteadof traditional media exposure
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 413
As another example the impact of the Internet is also radically transforming communicationsFigure 13 shows the 668 growth of major Internet services These services are transformingthe way we collaborate search for information receive entertainment and do business
Figure 13
Image Source Alexacom
The environment is another area of massive changes Figure 14 shows the percentage ofspecies threatened by extinction
Figure 14
Image Source Nature Journal httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 513
A direct correlation has been made between reduced biodiversity and increased poverty levelsIn addition the collapse of certain species could spell doom for the ecosystem of our planet
And then there is global warming There are clear indicators that the earth is warming thoughthe regularity of such cycles is being hotly debated Figure 15 shows the trends in temperatureanomalies as recorded by climatological agencies Figure 16 then shows the exponential
increase in carbon emissions that some scientists attribute to warming of the earth
Figure 15
Figure 16
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 613
If global warming is a reality regardless of the cause or frequency of warming cycles sealevels are projected to rise substantially Figure 17 shows the projected rise of sea level Arise of just a few inches could threaten coastal cities globally It is important to note that muchof the population of the earth dwell in coastal cities that would be inundated
Figure 17
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
One of the most crushing exponential trends is the rapidly escalating population of the worldThe UN estimates shown in Figure 18 indicate a potential population explosion between 2010and 2050 with a leveling off after that at approximately 10 billion people
Figure 18
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 713
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems ofvarious countries Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global changemdashChina
The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas China now has 8out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world Smog from China is so dense that it iscrossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles
Image source China Environmental News Digest httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region Inaddition China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources Figure 19shows these percentages
Figure 19 ndash Chinarsquos share of world consumption of materials
Image Source Address to Australian Business Economists httpwwwtreasurygovaudocuments1112HTMLdocshellaspURL=Australian_Business_Economistshtm
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 813
The Rise of an Integral Culture
All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American peopleAccording to the results of a social survey detailed in the book The Cultural Creatives How 50Million People Are Changing the World Paul H Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Andersoncontend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a
technocratic society toward an integral culture
According to Ray these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is realRay calls the people who are advancing this new worldview ldquoCultural Creativesrdquo They are now50 million strong or about one quarter of the United States population
Cultural Creatives
Excerpt from The Rise of Integral Culture By Paul H Ray NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW 37 PAGE 04 SPRING 1996
Compared to the rest of society the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic andspiritual have more concern for relationships and psychological development are more environmentallyconcerned and are more open to creating a positive future According to my research this groupcomprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US or about 44 million people If indeed an IntegralCulture is emerging we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominantcultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium
There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measureat this point in time Traditional Modern and Transmodern (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to present-day observations of three different subcultures of values I have called the bearers of these subcultures ofvalues Heartlanders Modernists and Cultural Creative
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 213
Figure 11
Image Source Intelcom Website httpwwwintelcomtechnologymooreslawindexhtm
But this level of change is not limited to technological change There are simultaneousrevolutions in many categories simultaneously These include
Technology
Information Communication Connectivity PrivacyEnvironment BiodiversityMedical HeathMilitary SecurityEconomyCulture ValuesPoliticsEnergyDemographicBusinessEducationImmigration
If the change was in any one area it might be manageable using traditional approaches Butagain simultaneous changes are pushing the limits of all social systems
Next we will look at exponential change in several different areas The mother of these is amulti-dimensional revolution The Internet is not just a technological changemdashIt also representsa revolution in the connectedness of our culture the ubiquitous presence of information the waywe communicate and threats to our privacy Figure 12 shows the exponential growth ofInternet Users
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 313
Figure 12
As the lsquoglobal villagersquo becomes more and more interconnected national boundaries blurpolitical systems become more and more virtual electronic nations emerge positive andnegative news is instantaneous and the fundamental nature of business is radically changed
One weak signal of the impact of these changes can be found in the realm of politics Ron Paulrepublican presidential candidate raised $43 million on November 5 2007 This was the largessingle day of fundraising by any Republican candidate and the largest single day amount for anycandidate in US history Shortly thereafter he beat his own record by raising $63 million inone day The bulk of this money came from online contributions and online supporters insteadof traditional media exposure
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 413
As another example the impact of the Internet is also radically transforming communicationsFigure 13 shows the 668 growth of major Internet services These services are transformingthe way we collaborate search for information receive entertainment and do business
Figure 13
Image Source Alexacom
The environment is another area of massive changes Figure 14 shows the percentage ofspecies threatened by extinction
Figure 14
Image Source Nature Journal httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 513
A direct correlation has been made between reduced biodiversity and increased poverty levelsIn addition the collapse of certain species could spell doom for the ecosystem of our planet
And then there is global warming There are clear indicators that the earth is warming thoughthe regularity of such cycles is being hotly debated Figure 15 shows the trends in temperatureanomalies as recorded by climatological agencies Figure 16 then shows the exponential
increase in carbon emissions that some scientists attribute to warming of the earth
Figure 15
Figure 16
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 613
If global warming is a reality regardless of the cause or frequency of warming cycles sealevels are projected to rise substantially Figure 17 shows the projected rise of sea level Arise of just a few inches could threaten coastal cities globally It is important to note that muchof the population of the earth dwell in coastal cities that would be inundated
Figure 17
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
One of the most crushing exponential trends is the rapidly escalating population of the worldThe UN estimates shown in Figure 18 indicate a potential population explosion between 2010and 2050 with a leveling off after that at approximately 10 billion people
Figure 18
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 713
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems ofvarious countries Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global changemdashChina
The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas China now has 8out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world Smog from China is so dense that it iscrossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles
Image source China Environmental News Digest httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region Inaddition China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources Figure 19shows these percentages
Figure 19 ndash Chinarsquos share of world consumption of materials
Image Source Address to Australian Business Economists httpwwwtreasurygovaudocuments1112HTMLdocshellaspURL=Australian_Business_Economistshtm
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 813
The Rise of an Integral Culture
All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American peopleAccording to the results of a social survey detailed in the book The Cultural Creatives How 50Million People Are Changing the World Paul H Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Andersoncontend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a
technocratic society toward an integral culture
According to Ray these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is realRay calls the people who are advancing this new worldview ldquoCultural Creativesrdquo They are now50 million strong or about one quarter of the United States population
Cultural Creatives
Excerpt from The Rise of Integral Culture By Paul H Ray NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW 37 PAGE 04 SPRING 1996
Compared to the rest of society the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic andspiritual have more concern for relationships and psychological development are more environmentallyconcerned and are more open to creating a positive future According to my research this groupcomprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US or about 44 million people If indeed an IntegralCulture is emerging we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominantcultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium
There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measureat this point in time Traditional Modern and Transmodern (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to present-day observations of three different subcultures of values I have called the bearers of these subcultures ofvalues Heartlanders Modernists and Cultural Creative
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 313
Figure 12
As the lsquoglobal villagersquo becomes more and more interconnected national boundaries blurpolitical systems become more and more virtual electronic nations emerge positive andnegative news is instantaneous and the fundamental nature of business is radically changed
One weak signal of the impact of these changes can be found in the realm of politics Ron Paulrepublican presidential candidate raised $43 million on November 5 2007 This was the largessingle day of fundraising by any Republican candidate and the largest single day amount for anycandidate in US history Shortly thereafter he beat his own record by raising $63 million inone day The bulk of this money came from online contributions and online supporters insteadof traditional media exposure
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 413
As another example the impact of the Internet is also radically transforming communicationsFigure 13 shows the 668 growth of major Internet services These services are transformingthe way we collaborate search for information receive entertainment and do business
Figure 13
Image Source Alexacom
The environment is another area of massive changes Figure 14 shows the percentage ofspecies threatened by extinction
Figure 14
Image Source Nature Journal httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 513
A direct correlation has been made between reduced biodiversity and increased poverty levelsIn addition the collapse of certain species could spell doom for the ecosystem of our planet
And then there is global warming There are clear indicators that the earth is warming thoughthe regularity of such cycles is being hotly debated Figure 15 shows the trends in temperatureanomalies as recorded by climatological agencies Figure 16 then shows the exponential
increase in carbon emissions that some scientists attribute to warming of the earth
Figure 15
Figure 16
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 613
If global warming is a reality regardless of the cause or frequency of warming cycles sealevels are projected to rise substantially Figure 17 shows the projected rise of sea level Arise of just a few inches could threaten coastal cities globally It is important to note that muchof the population of the earth dwell in coastal cities that would be inundated
Figure 17
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
One of the most crushing exponential trends is the rapidly escalating population of the worldThe UN estimates shown in Figure 18 indicate a potential population explosion between 2010and 2050 with a leveling off after that at approximately 10 billion people
Figure 18
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 713
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems ofvarious countries Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global changemdashChina
The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas China now has 8out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world Smog from China is so dense that it iscrossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles
Image source China Environmental News Digest httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region Inaddition China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources Figure 19shows these percentages
Figure 19 ndash Chinarsquos share of world consumption of materials
Image Source Address to Australian Business Economists httpwwwtreasurygovaudocuments1112HTMLdocshellaspURL=Australian_Business_Economistshtm
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 813
The Rise of an Integral Culture
All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American peopleAccording to the results of a social survey detailed in the book The Cultural Creatives How 50Million People Are Changing the World Paul H Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Andersoncontend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a
technocratic society toward an integral culture
According to Ray these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is realRay calls the people who are advancing this new worldview ldquoCultural Creativesrdquo They are now50 million strong or about one quarter of the United States population
Cultural Creatives
Excerpt from The Rise of Integral Culture By Paul H Ray NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW 37 PAGE 04 SPRING 1996
Compared to the rest of society the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic andspiritual have more concern for relationships and psychological development are more environmentallyconcerned and are more open to creating a positive future According to my research this groupcomprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US or about 44 million people If indeed an IntegralCulture is emerging we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominantcultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium
There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measureat this point in time Traditional Modern and Transmodern (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to present-day observations of three different subcultures of values I have called the bearers of these subcultures ofvalues Heartlanders Modernists and Cultural Creative
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 413
As another example the impact of the Internet is also radically transforming communicationsFigure 13 shows the 668 growth of major Internet services These services are transformingthe way we collaborate search for information receive entertainment and do business
Figure 13
Image Source Alexacom
The environment is another area of massive changes Figure 14 shows the percentage ofspecies threatened by extinction
Figure 14
Image Source Nature Journal httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 513
A direct correlation has been made between reduced biodiversity and increased poverty levelsIn addition the collapse of certain species could spell doom for the ecosystem of our planet
And then there is global warming There are clear indicators that the earth is warming thoughthe regularity of such cycles is being hotly debated Figure 15 shows the trends in temperatureanomalies as recorded by climatological agencies Figure 16 then shows the exponential
increase in carbon emissions that some scientists attribute to warming of the earth
Figure 15
Figure 16
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 613
If global warming is a reality regardless of the cause or frequency of warming cycles sealevels are projected to rise substantially Figure 17 shows the projected rise of sea level Arise of just a few inches could threaten coastal cities globally It is important to note that muchof the population of the earth dwell in coastal cities that would be inundated
Figure 17
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
One of the most crushing exponential trends is the rapidly escalating population of the worldThe UN estimates shown in Figure 18 indicate a potential population explosion between 2010and 2050 with a leveling off after that at approximately 10 billion people
Figure 18
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 713
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems ofvarious countries Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global changemdashChina
The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas China now has 8out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world Smog from China is so dense that it iscrossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles
Image source China Environmental News Digest httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region Inaddition China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources Figure 19shows these percentages
Figure 19 ndash Chinarsquos share of world consumption of materials
Image Source Address to Australian Business Economists httpwwwtreasurygovaudocuments1112HTMLdocshellaspURL=Australian_Business_Economistshtm
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 813
The Rise of an Integral Culture
All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American peopleAccording to the results of a social survey detailed in the book The Cultural Creatives How 50Million People Are Changing the World Paul H Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Andersoncontend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a
technocratic society toward an integral culture
According to Ray these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is realRay calls the people who are advancing this new worldview ldquoCultural Creativesrdquo They are now50 million strong or about one quarter of the United States population
Cultural Creatives
Excerpt from The Rise of Integral Culture By Paul H Ray NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW 37 PAGE 04 SPRING 1996
Compared to the rest of society the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic andspiritual have more concern for relationships and psychological development are more environmentallyconcerned and are more open to creating a positive future According to my research this groupcomprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US or about 44 million people If indeed an IntegralCulture is emerging we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominantcultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium
There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measureat this point in time Traditional Modern and Transmodern (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to present-day observations of three different subcultures of values I have called the bearers of these subcultures ofvalues Heartlanders Modernists and Cultural Creative
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 513
A direct correlation has been made between reduced biodiversity and increased poverty levelsIn addition the collapse of certain species could spell doom for the ecosystem of our planet
And then there is global warming There are clear indicators that the earth is warming thoughthe regularity of such cycles is being hotly debated Figure 15 shows the trends in temperatureanomalies as recorded by climatological agencies Figure 16 then shows the exponential
increase in carbon emissions that some scientists attribute to warming of the earth
Figure 15
Figure 16
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 613
If global warming is a reality regardless of the cause or frequency of warming cycles sealevels are projected to rise substantially Figure 17 shows the projected rise of sea level Arise of just a few inches could threaten coastal cities globally It is important to note that muchof the population of the earth dwell in coastal cities that would be inundated
Figure 17
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
One of the most crushing exponential trends is the rapidly escalating population of the worldThe UN estimates shown in Figure 18 indicate a potential population explosion between 2010and 2050 with a leveling off after that at approximately 10 billion people
Figure 18
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 713
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems ofvarious countries Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global changemdashChina
The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas China now has 8out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world Smog from China is so dense that it iscrossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles
Image source China Environmental News Digest httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region Inaddition China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources Figure 19shows these percentages
Figure 19 ndash Chinarsquos share of world consumption of materials
Image Source Address to Australian Business Economists httpwwwtreasurygovaudocuments1112HTMLdocshellaspURL=Australian_Business_Economistshtm
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 813
The Rise of an Integral Culture
All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American peopleAccording to the results of a social survey detailed in the book The Cultural Creatives How 50Million People Are Changing the World Paul H Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Andersoncontend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a
technocratic society toward an integral culture
According to Ray these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is realRay calls the people who are advancing this new worldview ldquoCultural Creativesrdquo They are now50 million strong or about one quarter of the United States population
Cultural Creatives
Excerpt from The Rise of Integral Culture By Paul H Ray NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW 37 PAGE 04 SPRING 1996
Compared to the rest of society the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic andspiritual have more concern for relationships and psychological development are more environmentallyconcerned and are more open to creating a positive future According to my research this groupcomprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US or about 44 million people If indeed an IntegralCulture is emerging we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominantcultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium
There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measureat this point in time Traditional Modern and Transmodern (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to present-day observations of three different subcultures of values I have called the bearers of these subcultures ofvalues Heartlanders Modernists and Cultural Creative
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 613
If global warming is a reality regardless of the cause or frequency of warming cycles sealevels are projected to rise substantially Figure 17 shows the projected rise of sea level Arise of just a few inches could threaten coastal cities globally It is important to note that muchof the population of the earth dwell in coastal cities that would be inundated
Figure 17
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
One of the most crushing exponential trends is the rapidly escalating population of the worldThe UN estimates shown in Figure 18 indicate a potential population explosion between 2010and 2050 with a leveling off after that at approximately 10 billion people
Figure 18
Images source Global Warming Art httpwwwglobalwarmingartcom
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 713
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems ofvarious countries Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global changemdashChina
The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas China now has 8out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world Smog from China is so dense that it iscrossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles
Image source China Environmental News Digest httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region Inaddition China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources Figure 19shows these percentages
Figure 19 ndash Chinarsquos share of world consumption of materials
Image Source Address to Australian Business Economists httpwwwtreasurygovaudocuments1112HTMLdocshellaspURL=Australian_Business_Economistshtm
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 813
The Rise of an Integral Culture
All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American peopleAccording to the results of a social survey detailed in the book The Cultural Creatives How 50Million People Are Changing the World Paul H Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Andersoncontend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a
technocratic society toward an integral culture
According to Ray these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is realRay calls the people who are advancing this new worldview ldquoCultural Creativesrdquo They are now50 million strong or about one quarter of the United States population
Cultural Creatives
Excerpt from The Rise of Integral Culture By Paul H Ray NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW 37 PAGE 04 SPRING 1996
Compared to the rest of society the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic andspiritual have more concern for relationships and psychological development are more environmentallyconcerned and are more open to creating a positive future According to my research this groupcomprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US or about 44 million people If indeed an IntegralCulture is emerging we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominantcultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium
There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measureat this point in time Traditional Modern and Transmodern (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to present-day observations of three different subcultures of values I have called the bearers of these subcultures ofvalues Heartlanders Modernists and Cultural Creative
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 713
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems ofvarious countries Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global changemdashChina
The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas China now has 8out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world Smog from China is so dense that it iscrossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles
Image source China Environmental News Digest httpwwwnaturecomnaturejournalv405n6783full405234a0html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region Inaddition China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources Figure 19shows these percentages
Figure 19 ndash Chinarsquos share of world consumption of materials
Image Source Address to Australian Business Economists httpwwwtreasurygovaudocuments1112HTMLdocshellaspURL=Australian_Business_Economistshtm
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 813
The Rise of an Integral Culture
All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American peopleAccording to the results of a social survey detailed in the book The Cultural Creatives How 50Million People Are Changing the World Paul H Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Andersoncontend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a
technocratic society toward an integral culture
According to Ray these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is realRay calls the people who are advancing this new worldview ldquoCultural Creativesrdquo They are now50 million strong or about one quarter of the United States population
Cultural Creatives
Excerpt from The Rise of Integral Culture By Paul H Ray NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW 37 PAGE 04 SPRING 1996
Compared to the rest of society the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic andspiritual have more concern for relationships and psychological development are more environmentallyconcerned and are more open to creating a positive future According to my research this groupcomprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US or about 44 million people If indeed an IntegralCulture is emerging we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominantcultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium
There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measureat this point in time Traditional Modern and Transmodern (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to present-day observations of three different subcultures of values I have called the bearers of these subcultures ofvalues Heartlanders Modernists and Cultural Creative
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 813
The Rise of an Integral Culture
All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American peopleAccording to the results of a social survey detailed in the book The Cultural Creatives How 50Million People Are Changing the World Paul H Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Andersoncontend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a
technocratic society toward an integral culture
According to Ray these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is realRay calls the people who are advancing this new worldview ldquoCultural Creativesrdquo They are now50 million strong or about one quarter of the United States population
Cultural Creatives
Excerpt from The Rise of Integral Culture By Paul H Ray NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW 37 PAGE 04 SPRING 1996
Compared to the rest of society the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic andspiritual have more concern for relationships and psychological development are more environmentallyconcerned and are more open to creating a positive future According to my research this groupcomprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US or about 44 million people If indeed an IntegralCulture is emerging we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominantcultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium
There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measureat this point in time Traditional Modern and Transmodern (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to present-day observations of three different subcultures of values I have called the bearers of these subcultures ofvalues Heartlanders Modernists and Cultural Creative
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 913
Because values are at the core of society this shift represents a fundamental change in how wewill approach our world in the future
From a marketing perspective futurist Faith Popcorn futurist and New York Times best-sellingauthor of The Popcorn Report describes 16 trends shaping future American consumerbehaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray
Faith Popcorn ndash 16 Trends
1 Cocooning People stay at home building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain -even dangerous - outside world The country living style of home furnishings is a case in point ofproducts designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend
2 Clanning Were staying at home but still want to connect with other like-minded souls HowInternet chat rooms are one way we clan but still cocoon
3 Fantasy adventure The operative concept is risk free as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe)travel new foods and possibly virtual reality
4 Pleasure revenge This is Screw it Im wearing my mink coat says Popcorn - nd more broadlypleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbiddenpleasures Smoking is another pleasure revenge says Popcorn
5 Small indulgences Even if we cant afford a Porsche maybe we can afford a Porsche watchStressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little affordable treats - from goodcigars to Godiva chocolates
6 Anchoring Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings7 Egonomics Rebelling against uniformity and sterility we seek to stamp an I wherever we go as a
quest for individuality becomes a major trend8 FemaleThink A big shift away from traditional goal-oriented models to the more caring and sharing
familial ones says Popcorn9 Mancipation Popcorn calls it a NewThink for men and it means men will break out of strictly
business ruts into more individual freedoms10 Cashing out Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling simpler
ways of life often in the countryside
11 Being alive Wellness as a concept continues to mushroom and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy
12 Down-aging Nostalgia for a childhood past When we eat Oreos this is down-aging saysPopcorn
13 Vigilante consumers The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price asconsumers organize boycotts and go on the attack
14 Icon toppling If its big established and traditional its in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society
15 SOS Save Our Society A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a newenvironmental consciousness new ethics and a new compassion
Source Trend spotting futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn ndash InterviewEntrepreneur Dec 1996 by Robert McGarvey COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media Inc
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group httpfindarticlescomparticlesmi_m0DTIis_n13_v24ai_19021526pg_1
And business itself is changing The book Its Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davisincludes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility withinbusiness
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1013
Statistics from the Book ldquoItrsquos Aliverdquo
Accelerated Change
bull The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years tenure in that role has decreased from 57percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001
bull In 1991 the number of new household health beauty food and beverage products totaled15400 In 2001 that number had more than doubled to a record 32025
bull From 1972 to 1987 the US government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrialclassification From 1987 to 1997 it deleted 500 At the same time the government added orredefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987 and almost 1000 from 1987 to 1997
bull In 1978 about 10000 firms were failing annually and this number had been stable since1950
bull By1986 60000 firms were failing annually and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly
73000
Increased Volatility
bull From 1950 to 2000 variability in SampP 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold Throughthe decades of the 1950s 1960s and 1970s days on which the market fluctuated by threepercent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year For the past two years ithappened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3)
bull The number of firms that take special items in their accounting has grown dramatically Thenumber of SampP 500 firms declaring special losses has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000
Special items are by definition an admission of being caught flat-footed by change morevolatile than the normal course of the business cycle
We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points The first is that changehas accelerated That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidlyVolatility is the degree of variability around a given trend Our second point is that volatileevents are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently These reinforce each other buttheyre not the same thing
Source Itrsquos Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends
These are just a few examples of the megatrends trends and weak signals that are impactingour world our communities and our enterprises
To say the world is changing is a gross understatement The world is squarely in the middle ofa revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1113
Itrsquos actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing Consider also
The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissionsRumors of peak oil the escalating price of oil and the rise of oil nations that are eitherunfriendly or hostile toward the USThe green revolution
The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers ofyouth in the US This will strain social security Medicaid and other social aid programscreate workforce shortages and strain the US economyGlobal increases in immigrationemigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that resultGrowing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technologyThe rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nationshostile to US interestsThe rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat itThe proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations A potential nuclearIranThe growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care informationThe rise of environmentalist groups as a political force There are over 200 million such
groups globallyIncreasing scientific moral issues stemming from eg stem cell research cloninganimal human hybrid cells genetic research artificial intelligence or transhumanism(the physical and mental extension of human capabilities)The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globallyThe rise of water as an economic assetThe decline of manufacturing in the US (4-8 by 2015)The rise of Internet shoping (50 of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018)The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecularmanufacturing)Economic instability with the drop in value of the US dollar trade deficit fallout from thesub prime-mortgage crisis etc
So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change where is it all headed Somesay we are headed for lsquothe Singularityrsquo
The Singularity
Statistician I J Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that wascoming Later Verner Vinge coined the term lsquoSingularityrsquo to describe an event that would resultin massive social changes following this intelligence explosion
Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe acoming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines
At the same time a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring Nanotechnology andmolecular manufacturing biotechnology information technology and cognitive science areconverging in what is commonly referred to as the lsquoNBIC Convergencersquo The National ScienceFoundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance(httpwwwwtecorgConvergingTechnologies )
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1213
As intelligence rises and converges the result is staggering and exponential increases inchange volatility (variation) and complexity Entire industries are converging or beingeliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common In addition the power of theseconvergent solutions is staggering As an example Israel created a biological computer chipthat is 100000 times more powerful than existing chips
Figure 110 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnologybiotechnology information technology and cognitive science alongside of rising changevolatility and complexity This is the lsquobig picture viewrsquo of the events that are unfolding in ourworld
Figure 110 ndash The Rise to Singularity
Image Source HyperAdvance httpwwwhyperadvancecomsingularityhtm
Surprise
But the nature of exponential growth which wersquove demonstrated over and over again in earlierexamples is a doublingmdashA doubling of change volatility and complexity This doubling has aneffect of surprising its unwary victims Especially when that doubling includes convergence
As a general rule communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change theyexperienced last year will be about equal or less than last year but that is an incorrectassumption The fact is that they should expect more changehellip a lot more
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items
8142019 Futuring
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullfuturing 1313
The forces of change volatility and complexity are extremely disconcerting And if we thenconsider that as a general rule society doesnrsquot see it coming we have even more reason forconcern People are basically trying to make decisions lead manage conduct business etc intraditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an oftenbaffling way
They do the same things they always did but now it includes an onslaught of business failuresnew forms of competition conflicts economic woes etc as change volatility and complexityweigh down social systems In a world of doubling change a conservative approach is nolonger lsquosafersquo it is falling behind Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likelywonrsquot exist in 20 years
In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming itQuality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management Six Sigma Kaiizen etcwere good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose but they gave manyenterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing
Transformation
Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm Transformation is a completely newparadigm An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal
What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that helpthem to transform themselves on demand Futuring extends traditional capabilities of thecommunity or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a Xenomorph
By definition a ldquoxenomorphrdquo is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respondto a perceived trauma event an opportunity for gain or change of conditional feature sets within an environment In that sense an entity possessing this
attribute could be viewed as a near real-time ldquoadapter enginerdquo
lsquoReconstructing yourself on demandrsquo might seem simple enough but there is an entirediscipline behind it and itrsquos not just about forecasting Itrsquos about
1 Forecasting weak signal identification and trend analysis2 Transformational leadership3 More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting4 Long-range visioning and strategy5 Master capacity building in communities6 Systemic enterprise performance7 Transformative change adaptability agility and disruptive innovation8 Performance and change enablers9 Transforming culture10 Improving life
Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items