futures2010
TRANSCRIPT
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Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios
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Scenarios Stories about futures• Event and response• Creativity
• Roles and times• Emergent practices
and patterns
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Who am I?
• NITLE senior fellow• Social media
mainline• Future
studies
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Today’s plan
1.Gamified Reality
2.The Long Great Recession
3.Past Peak Oil4.WorldBoard
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Caveats are mandatory
• Each scenario can be intertwingled
• Narrative and/or complexity
• Not the only futures: climate change, boom time, new age of terror
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I: Gamified Reality
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Gaming extends throughout everyday life:
…literally…practically…conceptually
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Very explicitly about behavior modification
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Imperial gamification
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Large simulations are normal
(political and
mundane)
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II: The Long Great Recession
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Federal funding continues
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Turning Japan in the 1990s
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Stagnation and decline
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Decay sets in, grows
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Chronic popular
discontent
Media battles
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III: Past Peak Oil
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“’By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,’ says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.”
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Nightmare scenario
It gets worse:• No full
replacements• Population and
demand grow• Costs keep
growing
Oil is used for:• Transportation• Food fertilizer• Medicines• Plastics
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Some checks
• New Saudi Arabias• Miracle science• Global recession• Climate change
disasters
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Shift to any alternatives
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Hoarding and panics
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Security state intensifies
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Walled gardens proliferate
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Military adventures attract
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Infrastructure breaks down
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IV: WorldBoard
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World of sensor nets
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Back to 2010
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Back to 2010
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NITLEhttp://nitle.org
Technehttp://blogs.nitle.org/
NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander