future studies today ?

Marc Luyckx GHISI, 1Tamkam Univ 18/11/2008

FUTURE STUDIES TODAY?

Marc LUYCKX GHISIMember of the Auroville International Advisory

Council,Former member of the “Forward Studies Unit”, EU

Vice President of COTRUGLI Business School, Zagreb & Belgrade


FUTURE STUDIES TODAY• We are in a crucial moment. • The change announced by Tofler

(Future Shock, 1987) and other futurists is happening today.

• Futurists have an important NEW mission: explain the actual world transformation to the public.


FUTURE STUDIES TODAY• This means that futurology and

philosophy are in the best position for explaining in a transdisciplinary way the multiple dimensions of the actual transition to– Transmodernity– Post industrial society– Post capitalist society– Post patriarchal society


CHAPTER 1:

SHORT DESCRIPTION OF THE TRANSITION


P. Drucker: TransformationEvery few hundred years in Western History there

occurs a sharp transformation. Within a few short decades, society rearranges itself

: its worldview (paradigm), its basic values, its social and political structures, its arts, its key institutions.

Fifty years later there is a new world.”

Peter DRUCKER: “Post Capitalist Society”. Butterworth Heinemann, 1993, 2001, p.1.


WILLIS HARMAN

• “We are living through one of the most fundamental shifts in History: a change in the actual belief structure of Western Society. No economics, political or military power can compare with the power of a change of mind. By deliberately changing their images of reality, people are changing the world.”

Willis HARMAN Stanford Research Institute (+1997), Founder of the “World Business Academy”


Transmodern Business

Knowledge SocietyTRANSMODERN

Danger

Industrial leftovers who have not grasped the changeAgrarian

premodern

Agrarianleftovers

Culturalcreatives

IndustrialMODERN

Sept. 11, 2001?

New Women-Men Partnership Society

End ofPatriarchal Society

Transmodern Business

Knowledge SocietyTRANSMODERN

Danger

Industrial leftovers who have not grasped the changeAgrarian

premodern

Agrarianleftovers

Culturalcreatives

IndustrialMODERN

Sept. 11, 2001?

New Women-Men Partnership Society

End ofPatriarchal Society

Transition to Transmodern

Death ?


KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY:FIVE LEVELS OF CHANGE


Transformation’s five levels1. Humanity is in danger of collective death 2. Knowledge society is the End of the Patriarchal

values (CCC)3. Knowledge Society is the end of modernity. It is

tansmodern. (post secular, flat, tolerant, new level of responsibility and consciousness).

4. Knowledge society is also a new economic logic.5. Knowledge society is potentially a new political

concept of non violence between States. (like EU)


The Iceberg of TRANSMODERNITY

Level 2 : End of Patriarchal myths, sacred and values

Level 3: End of Modernity: REASON Only Truth, Science, Violence, Pyramids, Control

Level 4 : The knowledge society : post-capitalist society (Drucker)

Level 5 : Credibility gap of all Institutions is increasing

Level 1 : Danger of Collective Death

dramatically…


LEVEL 1: HUMANITY IS IN DANGER OF

COLLAPSE


WorldWatch Institute Washington • “Our global economy is outgrowing the

capacity of the earth to support it, moving us ever closer to decline and possible collapse….

• “We have the technologies needed to build the new economy…”

Lester BROWN: “Plan B 2.0” Norton NY, London

2006. Presentation text on the cover.


UNESCO : War against nature• Koichiro MATSUURA, Director of

UNESCO in Paris has declared that “we must end this war against nature, which is in fact a war against ourselves, and against the future generations.”

• “We must conclude an armistice, a new “natural pact” of co-development with nature.” (“Le Figaro” Jan 11, 2007.)


WHY?

• It is a question of Survival for HUMANIY.


Level 2:

KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY =END OF PATRIARCHAL

VALUES


From Matrilinear to Patriarchal• MATRILINEAR(-

3500)• Woman=

Goddess, • snake = her

power• SACRED = LIFE

tree, blood, birth…

• Sexuality + Pleasure

• Power = life giving

• Beauty + art Creativity

• PATRIARCHAL • God the Father • women infer +

sin.• SACRED=

Violent DEATH, blood, cross…

• Sex pleasure impure

• Power = to kill• Ascetism is

better


KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY = END OF COMMAND AND CONTROL• Every LEADER will have to shift his

approach, and the political structures towards post patriarchal values: – respect for the environment, – Importance of human relations– Fostering the joy of creation,– contact with nature, link with the cosmos,– Interiority, spiritual dimension


A NEW WOMAN-MAN RELATION

• In every couple around the world, we see a hidden transformation of the relation. Hence... some new conflicts!

• This means that women and men are obliged to redefine their roles and behaviours.

• Few structures are able to help couples in this unexplained transition. SILENCE.


LEVEL 3:

KNWOLEDGE SOCIETY = END OF MODERNITY


Multi level changes...

1. Structures: From pyramids to void circle2. Status of rational thinking3. Status of Spiritual aspiration (religion) in public.4. Status of truth: real tolerance.5. Status of Science and tech.6. Status of political violence: beyond war7. Status of body, intuition, ethics, esthetics...


0. Pre-Modern to Modern : Pyramid to Pyramid

PRE-MODERN MODERN

COSMOS = object

GOD

Clergy

Government

Men

Women

REASON

Economist

Government

Men

Women

COSMOS = sacred


1. From Modern to Transmodern:

From Pyramid to void cercle MODERN TRANSMODE

RNCultures

Centre is empty

Men part of COSMOS

Men ‘above’ the COSMOS

REASON

Economist

Government

Men

Women


2. STATUS OF RATIONAL THINKING

• “Modern” rational thinking has been a liberation struggle against medieval obscurantism.

• It has become now, like a mental prison.• Rationality is loosing its divine status given

by “modernity”. And it is only one way to think.

• Other ways of thinking like intuition, connection to the cosmos, gain credibility, because we need them, to create knowledge !!


3. STATUS OF SPIRITUAL ASPIRATION IN PUBLIC

• For evident reasons modernity has taken distance from religions.

• But in doing this, it has progressively marginalized religions and spiritual aspiration as outdated.

• This negation of such an important human dimension is in crisis.

• We go probably towards : distinction but not anymore separation.


4. STATUS OF TRUTHMODERN• Pyramidal• Intolerant• Rational = truth• Secular (France)• Disenchanted• NOT Responsible• No conscious of

whole

TRANSMODERN• Round table + Hole• Radical tolerance• Truth exist=“void”• Post secular• Re-enchanted• Collective

responsibility• New level of

consciousness


5. NEW ROLE OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

• Science & Technology had received in “modern” times a “divine” status, because they were rational thus true. Now they have to be at the service of our survival in a sustainable future.

• Science was above ethics, value free ! Now ethics is back and citizens ask questions to science.

• Science was functioning in a offer economy (please consume what we invent !).

• Now science HAS to function in a demand economy (please be part of the solution !).


5. SCIENCE

• And science is reinventing itself at full speed.

• And this happens through hard paradigm conflicts (Thomas Kuhn, Harvard)

• Back to a “poetic” approach to nature... (Ilya Prigogine, Nobel prize 1977).


6. STATUS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE

• Modernity has created the State as zone of internal NON-violence inside. But outside the borders, citizens are obliged to kill.

• Transmodernity has invented structures of non-violence between States: The EU is the first success.

• But European Governments “sell” the EU as a market... They should sell EU as the first political avantgarde of the Knowledge society !


7. STATUS OF INTUITION, ETHICS, BODY, SACRED,

DEATH... • Many things are changing• We see that intuition, ethics, esthetics, are really

becoming important again in the knowledge society.

• The very concept of sacred has transformed more in 40 years than in 2000 years!

• The way we see death and life after death is also changing completely...

• We see a reconnexion of body, mind, soul, intelligence...Towards Reenchantment ?


CONSEQUENCE: POLITICAL CHOICES (I)• EU should be presented as the 1°

Transmodern political project of the XXI° century.

• Politicians should dear to say that we are like at the beginning of Renaissance...

• They should call people to reflect worldwide on the new sustainable structures of the future.


CONSEQUENCE:POLITICAL CHOICES (II)• The main world problems are political

– World hunger– Education– Water– inequalitiy

• The money is there. It would cost 10 to 20% of what is spent for arms...


CONSEQUENCE: ECONOMIC CHOICES (I)• Politicians and economist should

have the courage to say that we are not anymore in the industrial capitalist period.

• We are already in the knowledge economy which is post capitalist (Drucker).

• But nobody dears to say the truth to the citizens. And they know it .... subconsciously.


CONSEQUENCE: ECONOMIC CHOICES (II)• And this “knowldege conomy” (Lisbon

Strategy of the EU 2000-2010), could be oriented towards sutainability and social inclusion.

• We can decide this. A debate is urgent and needed.

• But this presupposes that the economists and politicians “wake up” from the “free trade” industrial nightmare which is unable to lead to a sustainable world.


THE DINOSAUR SYNDROM !• We are in a time of rapid change. • It is time to speak out and reflect

together like in this Congress...• Many structures will become

dinosaurs, if they are unable to transform...

• Better create new structures without fighting the old ones.


Policy and anguish• Example: war on terrorism. Seems to

foster more anger and terrorism, and “clash of civilizations”. Exactly the opposite result.

• Like persecution of Christians • Are politicians able to confront the

changes?• What is their mission today?


Conclusion • Where are you personally? Are you

feeling this transition?• Where are Croatian young business

leaders? Which paradigm are they in ?

• Where does Croatia fit in the European discussion? Which paradigm?

• What is the future of Croatia? Transmodern?


WHAT IS LISBON STRATEGY ?• In March 2000, the Head of the 15 States,

which are Members of the European Union, met in Lisbon for one of their official meetings called « European Council ».

• They decided that « the EU should become the most competitive world actor in the Knowledge society before 2010, and this in full respect of sustainability and social inclusion. »


CHAPTER 2:

WHAT IS KNOWLEDGE ECONOMICS?

(Level 4! )


DEFINITIONS• Data: what is on the web,

unorganised• Information: is already sorted by

« Google ». Overabundance.• Knowledge: is digested by human

brain. Less• Wisdom, Knowledge are rare. Not

enough.


A NEW WORLD...1. New tool of production : human

brain2. New CEO: Enabling creativity and

sharing, Caring for humans = new human-centered management

3. New value creation process : adding Knowledge to Knowledge.

4. BEYOND Trade: from Free Trade to Free Sharing

5. New measurements = qualitative “intangibles”


A NEW WORLD...6. New strategy: beyond war: win-

win not win-loose7. New definition of Progress =

qualitative8. Beyond patenting towards

“Open Source”9. Beyond pyramids towards

networks10.Capitalizing on cultural capital

+ gender capital


1. NEW TOOL OF PRODUCTION

The tool of production is not anymore machine + technol.+ capital (€).

New tool of production is human brain + sharing knowledge in Networks in order to create new K.

This new tool of production is more important than capital and technol. Humans are ABOVE machines and Capital.

Hence Post capitalist society!


2. NEW CEO FUNCTION• Old CEO: command, control, conquer• New CEO:

– Enables the creativity of his “human capital”= tool of Production

– Enables and creates networks around his team. Because (S)He cannot control networks!

– Cares for the intangible assets = brand


2. HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT

• Human capital and HR become central because they are caring for the tool of production: Please come back tomorrow!

• Thus Management : shifts 180° towards human centeredness = more creativity-centred, gender & culture – centred.

• HR Becomes absolutely central.


HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT• The EU economy is at least 50% in this new

knowledge economy. Thus HR is really becoming more important everyday.

• But many enterprises are not understanding the change. And keep HR devalued !

• Most CEO’s do not understand... It is too quick!


HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT• And so the HR managers have a difficult

task to convince their top managers. • Meanwhile people under them push for

change, because they feel the need.• It is important for HR managers to

understand that their problems are worldwide the same. The transformation is too quick!


3. NEW VALUE CREATION PROCES

• INDUSTRIAL SOC.• Add value to object• From steel to car !• Tool is Machine• Humans are cost• Management is machine-centered• Machine is central

• KNOWLEDGE SOC.• Create new K • From data, info to K• Tool is Human brain in Networks• Humans are capital• Management is Human-centered• Machine is at service


4. BEYOND TRADE : win-win(I)

• If I exchange an object against money, I loose the object. This is “trade”: I win and I loose. “Win-Loose” logic

• If I exchange knowledge, I do not loose my knowledge. I win and you win. I am not trading anymore. I share. This is a “win-win logic” of sharing.


4. BEYOND TRADE (II)• INDUSTRIAL SOC.• Free trade of objects• Industrial structure• Pyramids• Unemployment• Pollution• Quantitative growth

• KNOWLEDGE SOC.• Free sharing of knowl.• Post-industrial-capitalist. • Network =value creation• Self-creation of my job• Immaterialization of prod.• Qualitative growth


5. A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASUREMENTS

• « Intangible assets » is a new concept invented by Karl Erik SVEIBY (Sweden)

• They are becoming more and more important in the knowledge society

• Because the knowledge society is about knowledge which is immaterial, intangible and qualitative.


5. A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASUREMENT:

INTANGIBLE ASSETS (I)

• Intangibles assets = – Know how, – Reputation, Trust in the company, – Structure of the company, and Strategy

(balanced scorecards)– Relations with personnel, – Relations with clients,


5. A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASURE. INTANGIBLE

ASSETS (II)• Relation with civil society• Relation to environment • Relation to our collective Future and

sustainability• But also quality of the Networks


5. INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN STOCK MARKETS

• Stock exchange measurements are still looking at financial “tangible” assets (quantitative) but they increasingly look at “intangible” assets (qualitative).

• Today a company is measured more and more by its intangible assets : Minimum 50% .

• Example: “Men’s Wear” USA. & “World Business Academy”, “Spirit in Business”.

• See also Neskey: www.neskey.com

http://www.neskey.com/


5. Intangible indicators grow

Tran

spar

ency

ICT Proliferation

Financial indicators remain important

Non-financia

l indica

tors

grow in importa

nce

Potential for greaterparticipation and

wider accountability

1990 2006 2015


5. GROWING IMPORTANCE OF INTANGIBLE ASSETS (II)

1980 2006 2010 20200%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Tangible Intangible


6. NEW BUSINESS STRATEGY WIN-WIN

• Old business strategy is warlike. Battlefield images are frequent. Patriarchal values dominate: “win-loose” strategies.

• New business strategy: much less violent, “competition through collaboration” is the new motto (post patriarchal).

• Knowledge behaves like love! Shocking idea for the industrial capitalist economy.


TWO SCENARIOS of Knowledge economy for 2020• Scenario 1:Humanism• Human centered• Honest with humans• Really Transparent• Really ethical• Really concerned about the future• REALLY SUSTAINABLE

• Scenario 2: Manipulat.• Pseudo humanist• Invisibly false• False transparency• False ethics• False concern with Humanity’s future• NON SUSTAINABLE


Good Books…• Paul H. RAY: “The cultural creatives: How

50 million people are changing the world.” Harmony, New York, 2002. www.culturalcreatives.org

• Peter DRUCKER: “Post capitalist society”, Harper Business, New York, 1993.

• Verna ALLEE: “The future of knowledge” Elsevier Science, 2003, USA. www.vernaallee.com

• David ROONEY (Australia): “Handbook on the Knowledge economy” 2005.

http://www.culturalcreatives.org/

http://www.vernaallee.com/


Good Books • Jeremy RIFKIN: “The European Dream:

when Europe’s vision of the future is silently eclipsing the American dream” Penguin 2004.

• Ray ANDERSON: “Mid Course correction” 1998. www.chelseagreen.com (Interface)

• World Business Academy: www.worldbusiness.org

• “Neskey” on intangible measurements : www.neskey.com

• PERLAS Nicanor : Shaping Globalization : civil Society, Cultural Power, and Threefolding [email protected]

http://www.chelseagreen.com/

http://www.worldbusiness.org/

http://www.neskey.com/

mailto:[email protected]


Good Books• Marc Luyckx GHISI: The Knowledge

society: a breakthrough to genuine sustainability. Editions India, Cochin, March 08.

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