future research agenda charles hirschman university of washington
TRANSCRIPT
Future Research Future Research AgendaAgenda
Charles HirschmanCharles Hirschman
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington
Back to the BasicsBack to the Basics What is the research question?What is the research question?
• Dept. variable, hypothesisDept. variable, hypothesis
Empirical description:Empirical description:• Magnitude, trends, patternMagnitude, trends, pattern
Model: Search for explanationModel: Search for explanation• Natural history: origins and developmentNatural history: origins and development• Prevalence, intensityPrevalence, intensity
Implications for interventionsImplications for interventions
Research QuestionsResearch Questions
1.1. Define and describe child migrationDefine and describe child migration• Incidence, prevalence, circular, originIncidence, prevalence, circular, origin
2.2. What are consequences of migration What are consequences of migration for children?for children?
• Depends on type of migration: tied, solo, Depends on type of migration: tied, solo, left behindleft behind
• What the counterfactual?What the counterfactual? Relative to what comparison group Relative to what comparison group
Migration Status of: Destinations of Children
Family Child MDC Other LDC Home LDC
Migrant Migrant Family Migration
Migrant NonMigrant Left Behind
NonMigrant Migrant Child Migration
NonMigrant NonMigrant Stay at Home
Additional QuestionsAdditional Questions
3. Social Mobility of Children (by 3. Social Mobility of Children (by immigrant generation) in destination immigrant generation) in destination areaarea
4a. Effects of child migration on non-4a. Effects of child migration on non-migrants in sending areamigrants in sending area
4b. Effects of child migration on non-4b. Effects of child migration on non-migrants in destination areamigrants in destination area
Measurement of Dept Variable(s)Measurement of Dept Variable(s)
Absolute numberAbsolute number• experience event in a periodexperience event in a period• Ever (cumulative) experience eventEver (cumulative) experience event
Return and repeat migrationReturn and repeat migration
Ratio: (relative to a reference Ratio: (relative to a reference population)population)• In destination areaIn destination area
Total pop or non-migrantsTotal pop or non-migrants
• In origin area(s)In origin area(s) Total pop or non-migrantsTotal pop or non-migrants
More on MeasurementMore on Measurement
Rate: defined as population experience Rate: defined as population experience event in a period relative to population event in a period relative to population (mid-year) exposed to risk of event(mid-year) exposed to risk of event
Examples from Massey:Examples from Massey:• Annual probability of first time migration Annual probability of first time migration
of never migrants in originof never migrants in origin• Annual probability of return migration of Annual probability of return migration of
ever migration in destinationever migration in destination• Annual probability of repeat migration of Annual probability of repeat migration of
returned migrantsreturned migrants
Preliminary Model of Consequences Preliminary Model of Consequences of Migration on Childrenof Migration on Children
UnderlyingUnderlying
ConditionsConditions
MigrationMigration
Family/Family/
CommunityCommunity
Child Child Well BeingWell Being
Child Well BeingChild Well Being
Define Universe by risk of stage of Define Universe by risk of stage of development (0-5, 6-12, 13-17)development (0-5, 6-12, 13-17)
Outcomes of Interest:Outcomes of Interest:• Health: status, risky behaviors, Health: status, risky behaviors,
preventive contacts or treatmentpreventive contacts or treatment• Education: enrollment, attainment, Education: enrollment, attainment,
mastery mastery
Family/Community Proximate Family/Community Proximate Variables Influencing Child Variables Influencing Child
Well-BeingWell-Being
Prior to migration & change following Prior to migration & change following migration:migration:• Family Economic StatusFamily Economic Status• Family StructureFamily Structure• Community Resources (clinics, schools)Community Resources (clinics, schools)
Migration PatternsMigration Patterns
Migration of unattached adultsMigration of unattached adults Solo migration of parentsSolo migration of parents Family migrationFamily migration Solo migration of childrenSolo migration of children
• To join parentsTo join parents• To join relativesTo join relatives• For schoolingFor schooling• Into bondageInto bondage
Underlying ConditionsUnderlying Conditions
Poverty: absolute or relativePoverty: absolute or relative Population density relative to resourcesPopulation density relative to resources Spatial inequalitySpatial inequality Developmental change Developmental change (Commercial (Commercial
agriculture, wage labor, ideational changes)agriculture, wage labor, ideational changes) Labor RecruitmentLabor Recruitment Family/friends in destination areasFamily/friends in destination areas Immigration policiesImmigration policies
Some speculative thoughtsSome speculative thoughts
Family economic status will be key link Family economic status will be key link to child well beingto child well being
Major problems of children in LDC’s Major problems of children in LDC’s stem from underlying conditionsstem from underlying conditions
Migration can create new problems for Migration can create new problems for children (esp. in vulnerable families), children (esp. in vulnerable families), but generally, it is solutionbut generally, it is solution
Implications for PoliciesImplications for Policies
Need to be aligned with historyNeed to be aligned with history• Migration is natural and inevitable part of Migration is natural and inevitable part of
developmentdevelopment
Special treatment or set asides create Special treatment or set asides create popular resentmentspopular resentments
Fairness in access to markets , such as Fairness in access to markets , such as labor, schooling, housing, credit is more labor, schooling, housing, credit is more acceptableacceptable