Future proof your profits! Helen Millicer

Activity 1. Perspectives on change Using Workbook fill in pg 1. List your career stage and key events/milestones in 2004 and 2014.

Identify the trends and the patterns, threats and opportunities. ‘The future is already here, it is just not evenly distributed yet’ William Ford Gibson

Major drivers of change 1. Resources

2. Environment

3. Social change

4. Internationalism and technology

Use the facts to identify the threats and opportunities for your business.

Assess what you do, where you are based, your investments, staffing, supply chain, your profits.

Resources • Scarcity of oil, water, phosphorus,

silver and others

• Material shortages drive costs and revolution in efficiency, design and recovery, including landfill mining

• Resurgence in local production & communities = circular economies and reduced consumption

• Resource control by govt or corporates? War and theft?

US Geological Survey 2006, http://phosphorusfutures.net/peak-phosphorus.html Peak water - Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia

Peak phosphorus

‘Phosphate resources are limited, and phosphate is being dissipated. Future generations ultimately will face problems in obtaining enough to exist’. P.H. Abelson, Science Magazine, March 2009

Freshwater shortfall by country (top 15 countries) Total freshwater withdrawal

Total freshwater supply Total freshwater shortfall

Region and country (km3/yr) (km3/yr) (km3/yr)

Saudi Arabia 17.32 2.4 14.9

Libya 4.27 0.6 3.7

Yemen 6.63 4.1 2.5

United Arab Emirates 2.3 0.2 2.2

Kuwait 0.44 0.02 0.4

Oman 1.36 1.0 0.4

Israel 2.05 1.7 0.4

Qatar 0.29 0.1 0.2

Bahrain 0.3 0.1 0.2

Jordan 1.01 0.9 0.1

Barbados 0.09 0.1 0.0

Maldives 0.003 0.03 0.0

Antigua and Barbuda 0.005 0.1 0.0

Malta 0.02 0.07 -0.1

Cyprus 0.21 0.4 -0.2

National Academy of Sciences, 2010, Gleick, P. and Palaniappan, M, summarised in Peak water - Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia

Water scarcity

New Scientist, 2009, Natural Resources: How Long

Will They Last?

Environment • Climate change causing wild and hotter weather

• Agriculture and food production changes

• Fragile or resilient economies, relocating populations, infrastructure damage

• Clean green power everything and carbon boycotts

• Peak water = recycling and desalination

• Biodiversity extinction

Climate change and variability: Tracker maps BOM Climate change impacts in Australia | climatechange.gov.au

Temperature 4 day heatwave, Melb Jan 2014: • ~30% businesses reported

decrease in sales (est loss $37M)

• 59% reported impact upon morale and motivation of workforce

• 38% reported impact upon efficiency of operations & processes

New climate impacts: infrastructure and supply chains

http://www.ozcoasts.gov.au/climate/Map_images/SthEastQld/IBB_North/2.2/jpeg/150dpi/Brisbane_22_150_Map_9.jpg

2100: Brisbane, medium level rise 0.8m plus tide = 2.2m

Anticipating risks and costs: Our Mission - Insurance Council Australia

Impacts on infrastructure 2030

http://www.garnautreview.org.au/chp6.htm Also refer: Infrastructure Sustainability Council of Australia, 2011 CC Adaptation Guidelines

New climate: impact upon materials

Garnaut Climate Change Review 2009

Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation in 2050: How Australia can prosper in a low carbon world | ClimateWorks, 2014

Where are we now? Climate "Today" - Windows to the Universe, National Earth Science Teachers Assoc, 2014

Australia’s energy wealth – we chose which, when and how

Thinking of new image

Energy in Australia 2012, Dept of Resources, Energy and Tourism, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, pg 12, map source Geoscience Australia http://www.bree.gov.au/documents/publications/energy-in-aust/energy-in-australia-2012.pdf

Social change • World population increases and moves, then plateaus, food

and water issues

• Aging population in Australia

• Greater disparity in wealth and health

• Obesity epidemic

• Urban density

• Global citizens, diversity, battery kids and screenagers

• One planet living, sustainability mainstream

• Electric travel and virtual experiences

11 Billion people by 2100? M

illio

ns

Australia: age and trade Terms of trade and working age population, past and future trends. Annual average percentage change

Dept of Treasury from ABS data, 2012

Health and obesity

Global citizens, diversity, screenagers and virtual worlds

Internationalism and technology • Asian century

• Big Data

• International product and virtual service delivery

• Major innovations, bio-engineering, genetic engineering

• Major changes in design and built environment

• Integrated and localised water, energy, resource recovery systems

• Integrated supply chains and business models

• Dark world issues: money, technology and biology

Country govt debt, 2012, IMF

Australian productivity and skills Australia has ‘Average’ management performance in manufacturing (Scale: 1 = worst, 5 = best)

D Gruen, Dept of Treasury from Gloom, Genakos and van Reenen, 2012

Australian productivity innovation opportunities

Dept of Treasury from ABS data, 2008-9

Australian $ exchange rate (1994-2014)

www.tradingeconomics.com

Emerging

technologies

Emerging technologies

Our choices?

Scenario matrix by Richard Watson, Oliver Freeman and Wayde Bull

Be prepared for risks and opportunities

Our Mission - Insurance Council Australia

Activity 2. Impacts from drivers Using Workbook fill in pg 2.

List the significant aspects/impacts from these 5 drivers upon you and your business in the next 10 years

When done listing them, discuss at your table.

Time: 15mins

Activity 3. Actions to minimise impacts Using Workbook fill in pg 3.

Taking your list of significant aspects/impacts, list the Actions you will take.

When done, discuss at your table.

Time: 15mins

Be prepared for the future! Helen Millicer 0413 875 872 hmillicer@optusnet.com.au