future of solar energygygy

Photovoltaics Centre of Excellence - supported by the Australian Research Council

Future of Solar EnergyFuture of Solar EnergygygyMartin A. GreenMartin A. Green

University of New South Wales, SydneyUniversity of New South Wales, Sydney

Photovoltaics (PV)Photovoltaics (PV)

Solar water heatingSolar water heating

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW Concentrating Solar PowerConcentrating Solar Power

8Solar boomSolar boom

6W

.

Source: Photon International

4

6

city

, GW

2

4

Cap

ac

BulkBulk

2

New

000

002

04 6 8

0 ThinThin--filmfilm

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

20 20 200

200

200 8

20032003Transition scenarioTransition scenario

1600

a .

GeothermalSolar Heat +

1200

ergy

, EJ/

a Solar Heat +Solar PowerWind

800

mar

y En

e WindBiomass

400

orld

Prim Hydro

Nuclear

0

000

010

020

030

040

050

090 00

Wo

GasCoal


20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21

Oil

20032003Transition scenarioTransition scenario

1600

a .

GeothermalSolar Heat +

1200

ergy

, EJ/

a Solar Heat +Solar PowerWind

800

mar

y En

e WindBiomass

400

orld

Prim Hydro

Nuclear0.02% solar0.02% solar

0

000

010

020

030

040

050

090 00

Wo

GasCoal


20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21

Oil

27

Annual capacity increaseAnnual capacity increase27

W

.

Wind18

city

, GW

9

w C

apac

0 1

Nuclear0New

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Photovoltaics

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW2

Sources: Photon International, IAEA, GWEASources: Photon International, IAEA, GWEA

“Submerged” progress“Submerged” progress

10000

100000. 25%25%

Wind1000

10000

y, G

W

25% 25% World’s World’s energyenergy

100

1000

capa

city

1% World’s 1% World’s electricityelectricity

PV10

100

nsta

lled

WBGU Scenario

1% milestone

1

10In 1% milestone

Actual Wind

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW12000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

S l h tiSolar heating

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWSource: Solahart / ESTIFSource: Solahart / ESTIF

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) 1

Power towerPower towerParabolic troughParabolic trough


Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) 2

Stirling engineStirling engine Photovoltaic receiverPhotovoltaic receiver

Solar Systems, VictoriaSolar Systems, Victoria


Kramer Junction USA 354MW

Oil storage, gas boosting (25%)Oil storage, gas boosting (25%)

Commenced 1989, 10.6% solar to electricityCommenced 1989, 10.6% solar to electricity

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWCapex $2954/kWe, O&M 4.62c/kWhCapex $2954/kWe, O&M 4.62c/kWh

Issues

PositivesPositives

I t t ith f ilI t t ith f il f l l tf l l t. Integrate with fossil. Integrate with fossil--fuel plantfuel plant

. Heat storage relatively cheap?. Heat storage relatively cheap?

. Lower capital cost than standard . Lower capital cost than standard PV (in past)PV (in past)

NegativesNegatives

. Compete on wholesale market . Compete on wholesale market against wind & fossilagainst wind & fossil--fuelsfuels

. Clear sky, water needed. Clear sky, water needed


Ultimate costs versus PV

PV panels as cheap as optical elements of concentrators?PV panels as cheap as optical elements of concentrators?

(then don’t need rest of system, optical accuracy etc.)(then don’t need rest of system, optical accuracy etc.)( y p y )( y p y )

. .

Troughs: $250/mTroughs: $250/m22

Mirrors: $40/mMirrors: $40/m22Heliostats: $125Heliostats: $125--$159/m$159/m22

Mirrors: $13/mMirrors: $13/m22 ??

ThinThin--film PV panels: already film PV panels: already $110/m$110/m22 (First Solar Q4 2006)(First Solar Q4 2006)

22

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWMirrors: $40/mMirrors: $40/m

Eventually $30/mEventually $30/m22 ??

Photovoltaic ApplicationsPhotovoltaic Applications

ConventionalConventionalGenerators PV Central Station

PV Mi i Utilit PV ResidentialPV Mini-UtilityDiesel

ThermaloverloadPV RAPS


Grid parity: Europe

Small Small ftft

Larger groundLarger ground--t dt drooftoprooftop mountedmounted


Grid parity: USA


Germany: feedGermany: feed--in tariff resultsin tariff resultsOther levies taxes

25

German Household Electricity PricesOther levies, taxesRenewable Energy LawDistributionGeneration

10152025

ents

/kW

h

05

10

Euro

ce

1998 2007


First generation cellsFirst generation cells

150-200 m2 3 m m

More Si than microelectronicsMore Si than microelectronics2-3 m m

IssuesIssues

thinner cellsthinner cells. thinner cells. thinner cells

. simpler Si purification. simpler Si purification

n ++

p p fp p f

. higher conversion efficiency. higher conversion efficiencyp-type

p +

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW metal

Second Generation: thinSecond Generation: thin--filmfilm

ThinThin--film Technologiesfilm Technologies

SiliSili. . SiliconSilicon. amorphous. amorphous. microcrystalline. microcrystallineyy. polycrystalline. polycrystalline

ChalcogenideChalcogenide (polycrystalline)(polycrystalline)AdvantagesAdvantages

low materials costlow materials cost

. . ChalcogenideChalcogenide (polycrystalline)(polycrystalline). CIS, CIGS [Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S). CIS, CIGS [Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)22]]. CdTe. CdTe. low materials cost. low materials cost

. large manufacturing unit. large manufacturing unit

. fully integrated modules. fully integrated modulesth ti d ?th ti d ?

. . Dye sensitisedDye sensitised, , OrganicsOrganics

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW. aesthetics, ruggedness?. aesthetics, ruggedness?

Other Advanced ThinOther Advanced Thin--Films:Films:DyeDye--sensitised; Organicsensitised; Organicyy ; g; g


Efficiency/ costEfficiency/ cost

100 US$0.50/WUS$0.10/W US$0.20/W

80Thermodynamiclimit

,%

60US$1.00/W

40cien

cy,

20US$3 50/W

Present limit40

I

Effic

II0 100 200 300 400 500

US$3.50/WI

BulkBulk

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWCost, US$/m2

BulkBulk

Efficiency/ costEfficiency/ cost

100 US$0.50/WUS$0.10/W US$0.20/W

80Thermodynamiclimit

,%

60US$1.00/W

40cien

cy,

20US$3 50/W

Present limit40

I

Effic

ThinThin--filmfilmII

0 100 200 300 400 500

US$3.50/WI

BulkBulk

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW Includes dye, organicIncludes dye, organicCost, US$/m2

BulkBulk

Thermodynamic efficiency limitsThermodynamic efficiency limits

Es

TA

W

Tc

sSs

E

W

QEc

Sc

S = Q/TA

SG>0

≤ (1-TAS /E ) = 93 3% (direct) = 73 7% (global)

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW ≤ (1-TASs/Es) = 93.3% (direct) = 73.7% (global)

The 3 generationsThe 3 generations

?100 US$0.50/WUS$0.10/W US$0.20/W

Thermodynamic? 80

60

Thermodynamiclimit

cy,%

60US$1.00/W

Present limitIII40ficie

nc

. high. high--efficiencyefficiencythinthin filmfilm

II20

US$3.50/W

Present limitIII

I

Eff. thin. thin--filmfilm

. abundant. abundant

. non. non--toxictoxicII

0 100 200 300 400 5002

. durable. durable

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWCost, US$/m2

Third generation optionsThird generation options

100%

74%68%

circulators

tandem (n )hot carrier68%

54%49%

58%

hot carrier

impurity PV & band up converterstandem (n = 3)thermal, thermoPV, thermionicstandem (n = 6)

44%39%31%

impurity PV & band, up-convertersimpact ionisationtandem (n = 2)down-converterssingle cell

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW0%

EEg g control control -- photoluminescencephotoluminescence

Normalised PL Spectra (2-5nm dots; 300K)(2-5nm dots; 300K)

5nm (270s)4nm (240s)4nm (240s)3nm (180s)2nm (120s)

01.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

Photon energy, eVPhotovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW 100nm100nm

Photon energy, eV

Si quantum dot tandem cellSi quantum dot tandem cell

Normalised PL Spectra (2-5nm dots; 300K)(2-5nm dots; 300K)

5nm (270s)4nm (240s)4nm (240s)3nm (180s)2nm (120s)

01.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

Photon energy, eVPhotovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW 100nm100nm

Photon energy, eV

G. ScaderaG. Scadera

Third generation optionsThird generation options

100%

74%68%

circulators

tandem (n )hot carrier68%

54%49%

58%

hot carrier

impurity PV & band up converterstandem (n = 3)thermal, thermoPV, thermionicstandem (n = 6)

44%39%31%

impurity PV & band, up-convertersimpact ionisationtandem (n = 2)down-converterssingle cell

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW0%

HotHot--carrier cell conceptcarrier cell conceptquantum dot absorber

TTTTaa

Efficiency > 4 cell tandem

hole contactelectron contact

TT stiff 80

60

(%) 1

InN Si

TTcc tunnelingcontact

interface

cold carriers

40

20Effic

ienc

y 2hot carriers

absorber

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSWBandgap (eV)

cold carriers

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.00

100nm100nm

SummarySummary

. . need to fix carbon problem at sourceneed to fix carbon problem at sourceid l tid l t ff ti l t i it tiff ti l t i it ti-- provide clean, more costprovide clean, more cost--effective electricity optionseffective electricity options

. . photovoltaics provides a solution providedphotovoltaics provides a solution provided-- volumes increased and costs reduced dramaticallyvolumes increased and costs reduced dramatically

high energy conversion efficiency is the keyhigh energy conversion efficiency is the key. . high energy conversion efficiency is the keyhigh energy conversion efficiency is the key-- to lowest possible longto lowest possible long--term coststerm costs

hi h ffi i thihi h ffi i thi fil t h l i f tfil t h l i f t 20202020. . high efficiency thinhigh efficiency thin--film technologies for postfilm technologies for post--2020 era2020 era-- new nanonew nano--materials provide increased scopematerials provide increased scope


future of solar energygygy

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