future of autonomous driving
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Autonomous DrivingAn Overview of Market & Technology Roadmaps, Changes in
Architecture, Design / Testing / Validation of Automated Vehicles
Prana Natarajan, Team Leader Nick Ford, Sr. Consultant
Automotive & Transportation
A Joint Presentation with
Harald Barth Dr. Anthony Baxendale
Product Marketing Manager Research Manager
© 2013 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of
Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
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Today‟s Presenters
• Prana leads a team of research analysts covering the chassis & safety systems market, besides tracking
industry trends such as functional safety, 48V power net and automated driving
• Nick is a senior consultant with prior experience of having served a leading chassis & safety systems supplier
as a Global Product Planning Director
• Harald is a highly experienced product marketing manager with immense product-related knowledge in
commercially launching various safety products, now related to automated driving.
• Anthony is a highly experienced research manager with a proven record of developing and delivering high
technology solutions to the automotive, defence, security and telecommunications sectors.
Nick Ford
Sr. Consultant,
Frost & Sullivan
Prana Natarajan : uk.linkedin.com/in/pranat/
Nick Ford: uk.linkedin.com/pub/nick-ford/1/254/566
Anthony Baxendale: uk.linkedin.com/pub/anthony-baxendale/7/754/989 @FS_automotive
Dr. Anthony BaxendaleResearch Manager
Future Transport Technologies
MIRA Ltd
Prana T Natarajan
Team Leader,
Frost & Sullivan
Mr. Harald BarthProduct Marketing Manager
Driving Assistance
Valeo
Bietigheim-Bissingen, Germany
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Agenda
No. Topic Page
1 Overview of Automated Driving 4
2 Global Analysis of Industry Activity on Automated Driving 5
3 Comparative Analysis: Functional roadmap, technology preferences & alternatives 6
4 Pricing implications: Consumers, OEMs & suppliers 9
5 The Curious Case of the Google Car: What, how & why? 10
6 Case Study: Valeo Park4U – the solution & challenges addressed 12
7 Design, Testing & Validation of Automated cars 15
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Macro Level Outlook of Automated Driving – Driver InvolvementWhile capabilities exist with automakers to create semi- or highly-automated vehicles today, the biggest
challenge in taking the driver out of the loop is to make the car think like a human driver
Level of
AutomationSemi-Automated Highly-Automated Fully-Automated
Module Steering, braking, acceleration, monitoring, access
Application
EPS, EBS+ Electric Parking
Brake, Electronic Throttle
Control, ADAS, keyless entry
Intersection assist,
redundancy back-up for
connectivity, self-driving
capability until driver takes
over control (~10 seconds)
Multiple
redundancies
(hardware) and
Artificial Intelligence
(Software)
Length/
Duration of
Automation
(miles,
seconds)
Low Medium High
Driver
Involvement
(miles,
seconds)
High Medium NIL
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Automated Driving Market: Levels of Automated Driving, Europe & North America, 2013
5
OEM Comparative Analysis – Overall Automated Driving StrategyWhile traditional OEMs tend to target an identical launch plan across functions, segments and regions,
Google’s model agnostic approach could be the game changer
OEM Automation
Level
Launch
Year
First Models Top Level Functions Region of Introduction
TJA APA Hwy
BMW Semi-
Highly
2014
2017
X5
5- / 7-series
Europe & North America
Mercedes Benz Semi-
Highly
2014
2017
E-Class
S-Class
Europe, North America, Australia
Audi Semi-
Highly
2016 A8 Europe & North America
Volkswagen Semi- 2017 Passat Europe & North America
General Motors (Cadillac)
Semi-
Highly-
2018
>2020
SRX,
ATS & XTS
North America
Ford Semi-
Highly
2017
2020
Fusion
Explorer
Europe & North America
Lexus Highly 2020 LS Japan, Europe & North America
Nissan Highly 2020 Leaf Europe & North America
Volvo Semi 2015 XC90 Europe & North America
Google Fully- 2018 Model / OEM
agnostic
North America
TJA – Traffic Jam Assist APA – Autonomous Parking Assist Hwy – Automated Highway DrivingSource: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Automated Driving Market: Comparative Analysis of Sensor Suite, Europe & North America, 2013
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OEMs Radar LIDAR* Camera Laser# Ultrasonic Comments
Volkswagen Mono-Vision Stereo vision not a current priority.
BMW Mono-VisionFocus on peripheral laser, rather than
internalization of Lidar
Audi Stereo-VisionBumper mounted Lidar offers lesser
“field of view”
Mercedes Benz Stereo-Vision6D vision leverages stereo camera for
traffic movement
GM Mono-Vision Current sensor suite not sufficient for AD
Volvo Stereo-VisionCautious approach in spite of being
technologically astute
Google CarMono- /
Stereo-VisionLooks at fully automated driving only
Sensor Portfolio for Automated Driving: Comparative AnalysisClear divide exists between OEMs more so in terms of periphery-fitted Laser versus roof-mounted LIDAR;
Mercedes-Benz leads the way in leveraging stereo-vision to create 6D-vision for future vision-sensor fusion
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.* LIDAR refers to the typical roof-mounted multi-laser unit
#- refers to lasers seamlessly integrated with vehicle periphery
Automated Driving Market: Comparative Analysis of Sensor Suite, Europe & North America, 2013
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2010 2016 2020
Autonomous Driving: Application RoadmapWhile ADAS functionalities form the basis for vehicle autonomy, connected solutions ensure getting the most
out of automated driving
Parking
(Autonomous
parallel parking)
Autonomous
emergency
braking
system
Traffic Jam
Assist Semi
Autonomous
steeringEmergency
Steer Assist
Smart Navigation
(Vehicle deciding
on routes)
Automated
Highway
systems
Lane Change
assist
(Partial
Steering
autonomy)
ACCIntersection assist
(powered by V2V V2X)
Automated
valet
retrieval
Platooning
Co-operative
cruise control
Driverless car
Occupant
specific driving
dynamics,
alerts to the
environment
(horn, dim dip)
Automated vehicle taking complete
control of navigation, transmission,
steering, braking and parking.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Assisted
Semi-automated
Highly-automated
Cooperative
driving
Towards fully-automated driving
Automated Driving Market: Functional Roadmap, Europe & North America, 2010 - 2020
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OEM Comparative AnalysisWhile traditional OEMs are focussed on offering semi-automated features in the near future, Google’s to create
an ecosystem dedicated to automated vehicles including retro-fit hardware
Note: capability is evaluated based on a weighted analysis of current vehicle line-up
and demonstrator projects already showcased
Capability needs
improvement
Highly
capable
Low inclination towards going “driverless”
High inclination towards going “driverless”Google
VW
Nissan
General
Motors
BMW
Volvo
Ford
Audi
Lexus
Fiat
Renault
Key Market for overall
vehicle sales: US
Key Market for overall
vehicle sales: global
Mercedes-
Benz
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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2600
1920
2300
3220
1700
2400
2800
4500
4000
6600
5000
2500
3500
4000
10000
0 5000 10000 15000
BMW
MB
Audi
GM
Ford
Lexus
Volvo
Comparative Estimates of ADAS Option Cost with Automated Driving
Option, US, 2014
AD Package ADAS Package
OEM Comparative Analysis – Automated Driving Cost & Volume AnalysisFord is likely to lead the market offering automated modes of driving at a disruptive price-range, despite not having
firm launch plans; Audi lags behind BMW & Mercedes-Benz who have very competently priced their offering
Price ($)Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
10
Google Car: Sensors and Technologies UsedThe Google X automation module employs some of the finest and expensive sensors available today,
enabling a transition to ADAS-enabled maps with accuracy of 10cm, a dire need for autonomous driving
3 RADAR Sensors
(Bow-mounted
stereoscopic
sensors)
RADAR Sensor
Position
Estimator
Stereo Camera (HD)360 Degree Laser
detection (LIDAR) A Stereo- or a Mono-vision camera for forward-looking
functions such as traffic sign recognition, traffic signal
recognition, peer vehicle movement & trajectory
projection, besides pedestrian and obstacle detection.
Lidar senses the driving
environment
around, including tracing lane
markings and road-width
GPS helps navigation of
the vehicle and also
transmits vehicle data for
the purpose of diagnostics
& prognostics
Ultrasonic sensors may be used to
measure the position of objects very
close to the vehicle, such as curbs
and other vehicles when parking
Data from various sensors and vision inputs are fed into a
central control unit that controls vehicle dynamics module
and drive commands. Algorithm to be sophisticated to
understand driving environment’s direct and indirect
messages in terms of traffic and maneuvering
Forward sensing radar monitors
the distance of the vehicles and
obstacles in front
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
11
Business Models Around Automated DrivingBesides the obvious ownership-based model, a new subscription-based driving-as-a-service business
model can allow for autonomous driving, reinterpreting the human-availability clause
Manually driven
Basic DAS
Extended ADAS
Traditional OEM Approach
• Every trim to have standard
fitment of DAS warning
functions & relevant hardware
• This helps OEMs and suppliers
to achieve economies of scale
for enabling technologies for
automated driving.
• Every trim gets automated
driving as an option, pursuing a
pull-strategy.
• Automated mode shall be
activated only upon receiving a
command from the driver
• Driver controls the vehicle
when needed.
Standard: LDW, BSD, Park assist, FCW, Rear vision camera
and driver-monitoring
Option: Lane Change / Keeping Assist, Autonomous
Parking, Traffic Jam Assist, highway chauffeur and driver-
monitoring
Driverless
Driving-as-a-service Model
Tele-operated vehicle control
• Legislation around driver controlling a vehicle is
open for interpretation, allowing for a potentially
new business model on a subscription basis.
• Vehicles can be tele-operated through a remotely
located human driver. The driver controls the
vehicle when needed, but monitors it constantly just
as any human would.
• Subscribers can hop-on and hop-off while a virtual
driver always ensures the safety of the vehicle in
the driving environment.
Stakeholders involved: Legislators, Road-operators, telecom
& telematics service providers, insurance providers, V2X
service providers, mobility integrator etc.
Simulator
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Nov 2013 I 12
Nov 2013
Valeo Park4U® – The solution & challenges addressed
Harald BarthProduct Marketing Manager Driving Assistance
Valet Park4U®Intuitive Driving
Nov 2013 I 13
Valeo Park4U® – The Solution
78 vehicle models from 18 brandsAffordable luxury for everyday‟s life
From Semi- to Fully-automated Parking The future: Park4U® Remote / Valet Park4U®
Control Unit
Sensors
Push button
Source: Valeo
Nov 2013 I 14
Valeo Park4U® – The Challenges addressed
End-user perception / acceptanceDetermine the vehicle‟s movement / position
System‟s understanding of the situation Embed software code into a small µ-processor
In a customer clinic over 70% of participants stated a strong
interest to purchase Park4U® with their next car.
Source: Valeo
Meeting the Design Challenges of Autonomous Vehicles Balancing a high degree of system authority with a complex operating environment and security aspects
requires a „System of systems‟ approach
MIRA’s slide can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording.
http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/analyst-briefing-detail.pag?mode=open&sid=286359044
The Need for System Resilience A paradigm change in the design of highly automated vehicle systems requires a “system of systems”
approach to design and assurance
MIRA’s slide can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording.
http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/analyst-briefing-detail.pag?mode=open&sid=286359044
Requirements for the Design Process of Autonomous VehiclesTo implement the resilience approach, a development process incorporating disruption management is required
MIRA’s slide can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording.
http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/analyst-briefing-detail.pag?mode=open&sid=286359044
Systems Engineering Framework for Autonomous VehiclesBased on a traditional automotive V-model lifecycle process, additional parallel stages are
needed to cope with disruptions
MIRA’s slide can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording.
http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/analyst-briefing-detail.pag?mode=open&sid=286359044
Towards Autonomous Driving
Strategic Review and Assessment of Future Opportunities
and Implications for the Automotive Industry with the Advent
of Autonomous Driving
Workshop Proposal
November 2013
20
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For Additional Information
Harald Barth
Product Marketing Manager
Driving Assistance
Mobile: +49(0)176-3000 4025
Dr. Anthony Baxendale
Research Manager
Future Transport Technologies
+44 (0) 24 7635 5559
Prana Natarajan
Team Leader – Chassis &Safety
Automotive & Transportation
+44 (0) 20 7915 7871
Nick Ford
Consultant
Automotive & Transportation
+44 (0) 1454 880096