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Future Armed Forces 2040

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP 21 September 2017 Slide 1

Alan R. Shaffer

26-27 September 2017

Sofia, Bulgaria

• “I Think There Is A World Market For Maybe Five Computers”

– Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

• “Television Won’t Last Because People Will Soon Get Tired of Staring At A Plywood Box Every Night”

– Daryl Zanuck, Movie Producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946

• “There Is No Reason For Anyone to Have A Computer In His Home

– Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

• “The Idea That Cavalry Will Be Replaced by These Iron Coaches is Absurd”

– Aide-de-Camp to Field Marshall Haig, 1915

• “There is not the Slightest Indication that Nuclear Energy Will Ever Be Obtainable”

– Albert Einstein, 1932

• “Prediction is Very Difficult, Especially if it is About the Future”

– Neils Bohr

Predictions About the Future

21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 2

• Global “Megatrends”

• A Revolution in Industry

– Companies Rise and Fall Quickly

– Technology Maturation Cycle Time Continues to Shrink

• Three Simultaneous Technology Revolutions

– Cyber – Physical; Phase 4 of the Industrial Revolution

– Biological Revolution

– Nano-Manufacture Revolution

• A Revolution in Manufacturing

Change Vectors


MegaTrends


Price Waterhouse Cooper, 2016

Frost & Sullivan, 2015

Hay Group 2016 EY, 2015 HP 2016

Shift in Global Economic Power

Urbanization Globalization 2.0 Digital Future Rapid Urbanization

Demographic Shifts

Electric Mobility Individualism and Value Pluralism

Global Marketplace

Changing Demographics

Accelerating Urbanization

Space Jam (small satellites)

Digitization Urban World Hyper Globalization

Rise of Technology

Cyber Warfare Demographic Shifts

Resourceful Planet (Energy)

Accelerated Innovation

Climate Change Robotics Technological Convergence

Health Reimagined

Convergence of Diagnostics with Big Data and AI

MegaTrends Where NATO Works


Price Waterhouse Cooper, 2016

Frost & Sullivan, 2015

Hay Group 2016 EY, 2015 HP 2016

Shift in Global Economic Power

Urbanization Globalization 2.0 Digital Future Rapid Urbanization

Demographic Shifts

Electric Mobility Individualism and Value Pluralism

Global Marketplace

Changing Demographics

Accelerating Urbanization

Space Jam (small satellites)

Digitization Urban World Hyper Globalization

Rise of Technology

Cyber Warfare Demographic Shifts

Resourceful Planet (Energy)

Accelerated Innovation

Climate Change Robotics Technological Convergence

Health Reimagined

Convergence of Diagnostics with Big Data and AI

Significant to Military: Urban Operations, Technological Convergence, Autonomous

Systems, Cyber and Decision Making Using Big Data / Artificial Intelligence


Revolution in Industry

Companies Rise and Fall Quickly

23 Years Ago The Worlds 10 Largest

Companies (2016)

1. Walmart

(Merchandise)

2. State Grid (Utilities)

3. Sinopec Group (Oil)

4. China National

Petroleum (Oil)

5. Toyota (Auto)

6. Volkswagen (Auto)

7. Royal Dutch Shell

(Oil)

8. Berkshire Hathaway

(Insurance)

9. Apple (Computers)

10.Exxon Mobile (Oil)

Pace of Technology Technology Adoption Timeline (1900-2005)

The Pace of Technology Development and Market Availability is Exceeding the Pace

of Acquisition

~45 Year Cycle ~20 Year Cycle

• Incubation Time From

Discovery to Application

Continues to Shrink

• Chance for

Revolutionary Military

Capability Increases

• Time To Respond

Shrinking


Three Simultaneous Technology Revolutions

• Three Simultaneous Technology

Disruptions

– Information: Cyber-Physical

– Biology: Shift to Cognitive

– Nano: Systems Shrink


Cyber-Physical

• Merging of Physical Systems – Computers

– Internet of Things, Big Data, Cloud, etc all

provide data to physical system

– AI and Machine Learning turn this into

Rudimentary Decisions

• Types of Systems:

– Networked Sensors / Computers

– Cyber Attack

– Self Driving Cars

– Augmented Reality…..


Potential Military Applications of Cyber-Physical

• Opportunities:

– Human Machine Teaming

– Self-Driving Convoys (Already Here)

– Just in Time Logistics (With 3-D Printing)

– Swarming Systems (Intelligence, Potentially

Attack)

• Threats:

– Cyber Attack on a Platform / Vehicle

– Injection of False Information

– Quantity is a Capability …….Swarming Small

Systems

Lockheed-Martin

Automatic Mobility Applique Systems

(AMAS)

Autonomy Will Be Rolled Out in Steps

23 May 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 11

21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP

Slide 12

Biology

• Biology and Understanding The Human –

Cognitive System is Exploding

– Engineered Biological Entities (Fuels,

sensors, coatings, etc)

• Engineered Materials

– Affordable Genomics

– Computers that Think Like Humans


– Exoskeletons and Advanced Prosthetics

– Decision Making Software………..

Ray Kurzwell

The Singularity is Here

The DEKA Arm


Slide 13

Potential Military Applications of Biology

• Opportunities:

– Reduced Decision Time

– Enhanced Performance Envelop

– Early Diagnosis of Problems

• Threats:

– Western Ethics Prevent Some

Applications—Others Do Not Feel

Constrained.

– Novel Biological Weapons /DIY

Bioweapons


Nanotechnology--System Miniaturization

• Microelectronics and MEMS

– Micro-optical Components

– Internet of Things

– Nano fibers


– Micro UAVs (Alone or Swarms)

– Fiber High Powered Lasers

– Micro Sensors

– Electronic Warfare Systems with Greater Frequency Range and Pulse Agility

– Small Accelerometers…...

PROX Dynamics Black Hornet


Potential Military Applications of Miniaturization

• Opportunities:

– Smaller is Survivable

– Enhanced Surveillance

– Untether from GPS

– Advanced Protective Systems

• Threats:

– Defeating Small Swarm

– Hiding May Be Harder—Ubiquitus

Surveillance

Lockheed-Martin

Automatic Mobility Applique Systems

(AMAS)

• Number of People Needed to Accomplish Task

• Size of System Needed to Accomplish Task

• Ability to Network Systems

• Methods of Projecting Power / Energy

• Cyber and Electronic Warfare Importance

Mega Trend Implications for Future Armed Forces


• Non Technological – Prepare For Urban Operations

• Technological – Cyber Will Play Major Role

• Both Denial of Service and Data Uncertainty

– With AI Research, Decisions will Speed Up, Without it, Overwhelming Data Will Slow

Decisions

– Internet of Things -- Harder to Hide

– Miniaturized System

• System – Must Break Cost – Growth Curve

• Quantity has a Quality

– Except for Exotics: Hypersonic Weapons, Directed Energy

Mega Trend Implications for Future Armed Forces


• Small Satellite Constellations

• Laser and Pulsed Microwave Weapons Systems

• Manned / Unmanned Teams

– Urban Environments

– Air Operations

– Ground Logistics

• Three – Dimension Printable Logistics Trains

• Secure, Unbreakable Communications

Systems the Convergence May Spur


• Current Military Satellites Are

Fragile, Easy to Defeat

• Small Sat Constellations

– Easier Access to Space

– Capability More Resilient

– There Will Be More Nations In

Space

– May Be Commercially Based

Small Satellite Constellations


World View Satellite .3m Resolution

• After Years of Promise, Prototypes Finally Being Fielded

• In the United States

– NAVY – Laser Weapons System (LAWS)

– Army – High Energy Laser Mobile Demonstrator

– Air Force -- Current Military Satellites Are Fragile, Easy to Defeat

• All Three Prototypes Work, Affordability Being Worked

• China, Russia Also Have Extensive Directed Energy Programs

Directed Energy


• The Hardest Thing to Prepare For Are

The “Black Swans”

– The Event is Unpredictable

– The Event Has Widespread Ramifications

– After the Event Occurred, People Will

Assert it Was Predictable

• Examples

– The Internet, Personal Computer,

Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Sept 11

Terror Attacks

But What Are The Black Swans


• I Contend We Do Not Know the Extent of Military Potential of Swarming, Autonomous or Semi-Autonomous Drones

• But I Contend This Capability, As Much As Others, Could Change The Way We Fight

• Strong Convergence of Cyber-Physical and Nanotechnology

• Conducted Oct 2016 at China Lake Naval Air Station

Black Swan 1 – Swarming Drones

23 May 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 22

Neither Good nor Bad – It is Today’s Reality

Perdix Test


Black Swan II– Quantum Sensing and Science


• Aug 22, 2017 Report Suggests That

China Has Developed an Array of

Quantum Sensors That Can Detect

Submarines at Many Kilometers

– Based on Detection of Magnetic

Fields and Quantum Interferometry

– If True, the Sanctuary of Undersea

Could Soon be Gone

• Other Quantum Devices Could Make

GPS Obsolete

• Finally, Secure, Unbreakable Comms

Possible in Quantum Communications

QS Communication

• Maintain Active Network of > 5,000(+) Scientists

• Support 7 Technical Panels & Group

• Manage > 250 Collaborative S&T Activities per year

• Manage Outreach to > 500,000 Scientists

The CSO “The Collaborative Production Engine of the STO”

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 25 21 September 2017

Total Number of Activities per Year All Panels/Group Combined

June 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to all Partners Slide 26

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Task Groups New TG's Symposia Spec. Meetings Workshops Lecture Series VKI- LS

Tech. Courses AGARDographs Spec. Teams Mil. App. Studies LTSS CDT

Following Summer 2017

Silence Procedure

Conclusion


• Predicting the Future is Hard

• Must Maintain Insight Into Shifting Areas

(Technical, Industrial)

• Simultaneous Rapid Change In Cyber-Physical,

Biology, Nanotechnology Makes Future Even

More Uncertain

• There Are Potential Black Swans on the Horizon

Back Ups


Black Swan I – Swarming Drones


• I Contend We Do Not Know the Extent

of Military Potential of Swarming,

Autonomous or Semi-Autonomous

Drones

• But I Contend This Capability, As Much

As Others, Could Change The Way We

Fight

• Strong Convergence of Cyber-Physical

and Nanotechnology

Video of swarming drones

You can see at

https://www.youtube.com/

watch?v=ndFKUKHfuM0

• Applied Vehicle Technology (AVT)

• Human Factors and Medicine (HFM)

• Information Sciences Technology (IST)

• Modeling and Simulation Group (MSG)

• System Analysis and Studies (SAS)

• System Concepts and Integration (SCI)

• Sensors and Electronics Technology (SET)

Technical Panels and Group


Back Up

System MegaTrend “Augustine’s Laws”


• Norm Augustine’s XVI Law

– “By 2054, The Entire (United States) Defense Budget Will By 1 Aircraft”

– Stated in 1984 by Norm Augustine, Former CEO of Martin-Marietta and President of Lockheed Martin

• Without Addressing Cost Curve, Future Systems Will Be Unaffordable; Have to Break Current Trend

• Possible Solutions:

– Small Systems

– Open Systems Architectures

• New Russian Systems Would Stress NATO Capabilities; For Example (Not All Inclusive)

– S-400 Triumph – Passive Radar, Long-Range SAM

– Iskander-M – 500km Range Mobile Ballistic Missile

– Su-57 (PAK-FA) – Fifth Generation Fighter

– Ultra-Quiet Submarines (Yasen, Borei Class)

– Zircon – Developmental Hypersonic Missile

– Cyber and EW – Very Advanced

Russian Military Modernization


NATO NATIONS MUST CONTINUE

DEVELOPING NEW CAPABILITIES

33

Disruptive Technology A Case Study

• Digital Equipment Corporation:

– 1957 -- Founded

– 1960 -- Programmable Data Processor 1 (PDP-1) Introduced

• World’s First Minicomputer

• 10% cost of Mainframe Computers

– 1965 -- PDP-8 Rolled-out; World’s #1 Selling Computer

– 1970’s – 1990—DEC #2 International Computer Sales

– 1990 -- 120,000 Employees; Revenues $14B

– 1998 – Company Bought by Compaq—and Dead

“It was the sudden demise of DEC that first drew my attention. How

could a company, once described by Business Week as a freight train

that obliterates all competitors, fall so precipitously?” Interview with

Clayton Christensen, Harvard Business School on Line, April 1999

34

Technology Develops Outpaces Traditional Acquisition

“Moore’s Law” Computing doubles every 18 months

“Fiber Law” Communication capacity doubles every 9 months

“Storage Law” Storage doubles every 12 months

Technology growth is non-linear…

Acquisition path has been linear

Defense Acquisition Pace

F-22 Milestone I: Oct 86 IOC: Dec 05*

Comanche Milestone I: Jun 89 IOC: Sep 09

* Computers at IOC are 2,000 X faster, hold 130,000 X bits

of information than they did at MS I

Basic Research Enables Progress

40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s

• Nuclear weapons

• Radar

• Proximity fuse

• Sonar

• Jet engine

• LORAN

• Digital computer

• ICBM

• Transistor

• Laser technology

• Nuclear propulsion

• Digital comm.

• Satellite comm.

• Integrated circuits

• Phased-array radar

• Defense networks

• Airborne surv.

• MIRV

• Airborne GMTI/SAR

• Stealth

• Strategic CMs

• IR search and track

• Space track network

• C2 networks

• GPS

• UAVs

• Night vision

• Personal computing

• Counter-stealth

• BMD hit-to-kill

• Wideband networks

• Web protocols

• Precision munitions

• Solid state radar

• Advanced robotics

• Speech recognition

• GIG

• Armed UAVs

• Optical SATCOM

• Data mining

• Advanced seekers

• Decision support

Basic Research Program • 6 High Priority S&T areas for DoD

• Metamaterials and Plasmonics

• Quantum Information Science

• Cognitive Neuroscience

• Nanoscience and Nanoengineering

• Synthetic Biology

• Understanding Human and Social Behavior

• Within the broader set of sciences critical

to DoD

Understanding and creating the cutting edge

Trends in basic research are identified and judged through a variety of

interactions, including: • Publications, university site visits, conference attendance

• Future Directions Workshops (identifying emerging areas for investment and International

Centers of Excellence for collaborative opportunities)

• Engage expert panels (JASONs, National Academy of Sciences, etc…)

Metamaterials and Plasmonics

• Enabled capabilities • Nanoscale Subsurface Spectroscopy • Plasmon-enhanced Detectors &

Imagers • Phased Antenna Arrays • Microvascular Autonomic Composites • Novel Coatings (ex. Ice free, water

repellent)

Engineered design of basic properties

and transport of energy/information in

materials & structures

• Select breakthroughs

• Sub-wavelength Elements, Plasmonics,

Photonic Crystals, Metamaterials

• Self-sensing & Self-healing Materials

• Biologically Inspired Structures

• Computational & Fast-algorithm Tools

• Key research challenges

• Efficiently convert optical radiation into

localized energy, and vice versa.

• Enhancing local photophysical processes

• Precise assembly & fabrication of

hierarchical 3-D photonic

• Integrating plasmonics with nanostructured

semiconductor devices

Quantum Information Science Manipulate and control nature down to the precision of a single quantum

• Enabled capabilities • Quantum computing: solving currently intractable

problems • Quantum communication: practical ultra-secure

communication • Quantum simulation: developing new classes of

materials for new applications • Quantum sensing, metrology and imaging:

sensitivity/precision/resolution beyond best possible with classical means

• Key research challenges • Maintaining quantum coherence over time • Discovering new algorithms that fully exploit QIS

for additional new capabilities • New techniques to control quantum systems • New materials, fabrication for long coherence time

• Select breakthroughs • Quantum factorization algorithm

(Shor 1995): solve intractable

problems

• Quantum gas microscope

(Greiner 2010): observation of an

ensemble of atoms in a lattice with

down to a single atom resolution

Cognitive Neuroscience More deeply understand and more fully exploit the fundamental

mechanisms of the brain

• Enabled capabilities • Deeper understanding of human information

processing, learning and decision making • Direct mental control of engineered systems • Better design of information displays and

system controls • Compensation for performance under stress • Ameliorate/ prevent PTSD and TBI

• Key research challenges • Solving the inverse problem of predicting

human behavior from brain signals • Translating clinical measurements & analyses

to uninjured personnel • Developing models incorporating individual

brain variability

• Select breakthroughs • Advances in brain imaging; e.g.

fMRI, Diffusion Tensor Imaging,

and digital EEG

• Advances in correlation of brain-

structure to function

• Massively parallel computation

enabling brain signal analysis

Map of brain interconnectivity as measured

by Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI)

Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Discover and exploit unique phenomena at nanometer dimensions to enable novel

applications

• Enabled capabilities

• Electronics & Sensing: Multi-spectral focal plane arrays, ubiquitous embedded sensors, curvilinear electronics, ultra-low voltage devices

• Power and Energy: Fuel-cells, portable electronics, mobile power, thermoelectrics

• Coatings: Photoactive, self-cleaning films

• Key research challenges

• Low defect density graphene over large areas

• Production and reproducibility of single chirality nanotubes and bilayers of graphene, each layer individually biased to form new condensed state

Graphene monolayer

Graphene Band structure with Dirac points

Dirac points

• Select breakthroughs • Nano-particle coating & functionalization

• Catalysts for energy-harvesting

• Graphene and carbon nanotubes

Synthetic Biology

The promise of engineered biology for a multitude of

applications

• Enabled capabilities • Bio-production including bio-fuels

• Bio-sensors

• Tissue regeneration

• New and faster ways to produce vaccines

• Algae-based food production

• Clean water as a bio-based capability • Key research challenges

• Modeling and simulation to address

complexity of pathways

• Automation of trials

• Selection of appropriate host cell

compatible with synthetic genome

• Regulation and societal acceptance

• Select breakthroughs

A fundamental understanding and

predictive capability of human behavior

dynamics from individuals to societies

• Enabled capabilities • Predictive models supporting strategic,

operational, and tactical decision making and

planning

• Real time cultural situational awareness

• Immersive training and mission rehearsal

• Cross cultural coalition building

• Key research challenges • Conflicting theories

• Data management and fusion

• Mathematical complexity

• Validation of models

• Select breakthroughs • Early success of simple models

• Success of social network analysis

• Prediction of crowd tipping points

Understanding Human Behavior

DoD Policy on Fundamental Research

2010 Carter Memorandum on Fundamental Research (FR)

• “DoD will place no other restrictions on the conduct or reporting

of unclassified fundamental research, except as otherwise required

by applicable federal statutes, regulations, or executive orders.”

• Expanded the protections stated in the 2008 Young memo:

• FR may be supported by non-6.1 or 6.2 funds on campus

• FR not subject to flowdown restrictions inherited from the

parent contract

DFARS Modification of 7000 Clause (2013)

• Formalized Carter memo guidance into official contracting regulations (DFARS)

• Language states that contractors cannot release information without permission

(including publication)

• New exception:

“unless – (3) The information results from or arises during the performance of a

project that has been scoped and negotiated by the contracting activity… and

determined… to be fundamental research in accordance with [NSDD 189 and the

Carter memo].”

FY 14 Topic Areas

Belief Formation and Movements for Change

Models of Societal Resilience and Instability

Power and Escalation

Emerging Topics

Inform DoD

understanding of

Terrorism,

Revolutions

Stability Ops,

Arab Spring 2.0

China, Cyber,

Emerging powers

Some projects funded:

• Mapping the Diffusion and Influence of

Counter-radical Muslim Discourse

• Deterring Complex Threats: Asymmetry,

Interdependence, and Multi-polarity

• Natural Resources and Armed Conflict

• Dynamics of Sacred Values and Social

Responsibilities

• Quantifying Structural Transformation in China

• Multi-source Assessments of State Stability

from Social and Traditional Media

The Minerva Research Initiative • Goal: Build fundamental understanding of the social, cultural, and historical forces that shape regions of the world of strategic importance • Defense social science basic research uses rigorous methodology to investigate the

why and how, versus who or what, of phenomena such as influence, escalation, and resilience

• Topics are updated annually to target knowledge gaps most critical for the warfighter, the force planner, and national security policy development

Cloud Computing

A New Reality: Global Dimensions Affect DoD S&T

Pace of Technology

Rise of the Commons

Expanding Global Knowledge Base

Information Agility

Mass Collaboration

Economic and S&T Mega-Trends

Technology Commercialization

Black Swan Syndrome

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Pace of Technology Technology Adoption Timeline (1900-2005)

It took 23 years to go from

modeling germanium

semiconductor properties

to a commercial product

The carbon nanotube was

discovered in 1991; recognized

as an excellent source of field-

emitting electrons in 1995, and

commercialized in 2000

The Economist, Feb. 9, 2008

The Pace of Technology

Development and Market

Availability is Exceeding

the Pace of Acquisition

~45 Year Cycle ~20 Year Cycle

Rise of the Commons

Military Operations Increasingly Depend on Being Able to Operate

in Places “No One Owns” – The Enablers

Oceans

Electronic Warfare

Ubiquitous Data

Cyber Space

Engineering Challenges • Lay solid foundations…create opportunities

• Envision multiple futures…enable flexible choices

• Design and build systems with focus on lifecycle cost

• Protect our critical defense “intellectual property”

• Focus on “3 Ps” of the DoD Engineering Enterprise: Policy, Practice and, most importantly, People


Technology Megatrends

• Three Simultaneous Technology

Disruptions

– Information: Cyber-Physical

– Biology: Shift to Cognitive

– Nano: Systems Shrink


Slide 50

Biology

• Biology and Understanding The Human –

Cognitive System is Exploding

– Engineered Biological Forms

– Affordable Genomics

– Computers that Think Like Humans


– Exoskeletons and Advanced Prostetics

– ………..

Ray Kurzwell

The Singularity is Here

The DEKA Arm

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