further improving graduation rate measurement to drive ...grade graduates (captures students who...
TRANSCRIPT
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Further Improving Graduation Rate Measurement to Drive Progress: Starting a Conversation
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Presenters
• Robert Balfanz, Director, Everyone Graduates Center, School of Education, Johns Hopkins University, [email protected]
• Joanna Hornig Fox, Deputy Director, Everyone Graduates Center, School of Education, Johns Hopkins University, [email protected]
• Jennifer DePaoli, Education Advisor, Civic Enterprises, [email protected]
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Thesis A collective effort to improve high school graduation rate measurement over the past decade has played a key role in raising graduation rates. To keep graduation rates rising, these measurements must continue to improve.
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Bipartisan, federal-state effort
• NCLB-2002-High school graduation rate accountability and subgroup reporting
• NGA Compact-2006-Governors agree to common high school grad rate measure based on 4-year cohort rates
• U.S. Dept. of Ed Regulations-2008-Common parameters established for adjusted cohort graduation rate
• Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rates (2011-12)-Reported for all students and key subgroups by 47/50 states
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Leads to A Historic Moment - Grad Rates Hit 80!
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AFG
R
School Year
Average Freshman Graduation Rate (AFGR) Trend 1974-2012
+80%
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ACGR by state, 2012
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Change in AFGR by ethnicity, 2006 - 2012 15
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Hispanic Black White
AFG
R P
erce
nta
ge P
oin
t In
crea
se
Hispanic
Black
White
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Percent of students attending high schools with low promoting power 2002-2012
46%
39%
11%
23%
15%
5%
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Black Hispanic White
Perc
ent
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den
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2002 2012
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What drove increases? • Awareness
• Expectations and accountability
• Secondary school district and state reforms
• Enhanced student supports
• Improved state and district data systems
• Increasing use of data to inform policy, legislation and practice
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Driving Questions
for 2014
and Beyond
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What it will take to get to 90% in 2020
In each state? In each district?
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Key drivers for improvements
• Student subgroups: low-income students, students with disabilities and young men of color
• Big cities: single or multiple districts – populous and/or lagging states
• Better data
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Why precise and comparable graduation rates matter
• Where to target additional supports and resources
• Who to learn from
• Where to build community coalitions
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Closing the opportunity gap for low-income students
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Focusing on students with disabilities
• Students with disabilities represent 13 percent of all students nationally
• The average graduation rate for these students lags the national average by 20 percent
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State 2012 ACGR for Students with Disabilities
2012 ACGR Gap with General Population
Montana 81 -3
Arkansas 79 -5
Kansas 77 -8
And on the other end of the continuum ……..
Oregon 38 -30
Georgia 35 -35
Louisiana 33 -39
Mississippi 32 -43
Nevada 24 -39
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Accelerating graduation rates for young men of color in key states
State 2012 ACGR – African American
2012 ACGR - Hispanic
New York 63% 63%
Michigan 60% 64%
Ohio 61% 68%
Georgia 62% 60%
Colorado 66% 62%
Combined % of High School Population for this sub-group
23.8% 11.1%
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Solving the big city challenge
District Name Overall 2012 ACGR
% Low-Income Students
% of State’s Total Cohort
City of Chicago 69 82.9% 17.5%
Los Angeles Unified
67 89.8% 8.4%
New York City School Districts
66 71.3% 35.4%
Atlanta Public Schools
51 71.6% 3.0%
Minneapolis Public School District
50 59.9% 3.6%
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Solving a metro challenge District Name 2012
ACGR 2012 ACGR Black and % of district
2012 ACGR Hispanic and % of district
District as % of State’s Total Cohort
Atlanta Public Schools
51 50/90% 40-44/4% 3.0%
Clayton County Public Schools
54 56/76% 43/12% 3.2%
Cobb County Public Schools
76 66/35% 60/12% 7.1%
Dekalb County Public Schools
57 57/78% 47/7% 6.6%
Fulton County Public Schools
71 56/45% 51/9% 5.9%
Gwinnett County Public Schools
71 64/30% 53/21% 9.8%
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Solving major state challenges
California educates 14% of the nation’s school-age children and 20% of the nation’s low-income students
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Focusing on the Measurement of High
School Graduation Rates
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Guiding Question: How can graduation rate measurement be improved?
…to best support schools, districts, communities and states in raising high school graduation rates?
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Theory of action
Data
Data for Comparability
Data for Learning
Data for Guiding Actions
Improved Student
Outcomes
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Do graduation rate data currently tell… • Which reported improvements in student
outcomes are real?
• Which are the result of variations in how graduation rates are measured?
• What is working and what is not? Where? For whom?
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Unanswered measurement questions complicate analysis • Why are the two federally reported graduation rate measures -
AFGR and ACGR - similar in some states yet disparate in others?
• To what extent are widely reported differences among states in overall graduation rates and subgroup outcomes driven by variation in measurement?
• How common is it for graduation rate measures to accurately follow federal regulations, state statutes, and business rules and result in rates that are not comparable state to state?
• How often do false negatives or positives occur?
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Does it matter that 10 states have significant ACGR-AFGR gaps?
• 21 states: within 1 percentage point, plus or minus
• 16 states: within 2 to 4 percentage points, plus or minus
• 4 states: AFGR > ACGR by 5 to 12 pp
• 6 States: ACGR > AFGR by 5 to 10 pp
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What can be learned when AFGR and ACGR differ greatly in a state? • AFGR < ACGR
Net out-migration in AFGR?
ACGR 9th-grade cohort is undercounted?
8th-grade repeaters or dropouts in AFGR?
• AFGR > ACGR
Extended-time (5th, 6th, 7th year) graduates in AFGR?
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Thinking together: Where does variability in how graduation rates are measured impact their precision and comparability and how might this variation be addressed?
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Sources of state variability?
• Stricter and looser interpretation of federal regulations?
• Different solutions where federal regulations are silent (i.e. Who is a first time 9th-grader?)
• Difference in state statutes and organizations of schooling?
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Who is a first time 9th-grader?
• 8th-grade graduates?
• All students enrolled in 9th-grade for first time?
• All 9th-graders enrolled as of a specific date after the start of school?
• Can it differ for schools and districts?
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Solutions?
• For school districts, use 8th-grade graduates (captures students who dropout between 8th and 9th or early in 9th grade)
• For schools, pick a common date, for example, four weeks after school starts -- no later than October 1 (provides time to remove duplicate enrollments)
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Who is removed from the cohort? • Students who say they will be homeschooled?
• Students whose relatives report they moved out of the country?
• Students enrolled in private schools without accreditation recognized by the state university system?
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Solutions?
• District and state reports on the impact of students being removed from cohort for homeschooling or moves out of the country
• Only remove students from cohort who enroll in private schools with accreditation recognized by the state university system
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Who is not removed from cohort but should be?
• Students who transfer to schools that do not seek or require transcripts from prior schools?
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Who is added to the cohort? • Students who transfer in second semester of
senior year?
• Students with disabilities whose IEPs say they need extra time to graduate?
• Immigrant students who do not speak English?
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Who earns an on-time regular diploma?
• Students with disabilities whose IEP team says they are ready to graduate?
• Students who completed necessary credits or passed required exit exam the summer after their fourth year of high school?
• Students who participate in joint high school and associates’ degree programs?
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Solutions? • Reach consensus on common rules for including
students in the cohort, and for who is in a subgroup, and who is counted as receiving a regular, on-time high school diploma
• Give special attention to the relationship among IEPs, regular diplomas and years for graduation. Create consistency across states aligned with expert recommendations. Consider creating a few categories from which states could choose.
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Where Else Might Variability Occur in How Graduation Rates are Measured by States?
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When Could Graduation Rate Measures be Technically Correct but Create False Impressions of Success or Struggle (i.e. false positives and negatives)?
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Some scenarios to consider
• Under accountability pressure some schools become more savvy than others in insuring that all struggling students transfer
• Majority of alternative schools in a district are charters with low graduation rates but considered their own LEA
• Significant numbers of seniors transfer to private schools (with lower graduation requirements)
• Statewide “Recovery or Achievement” school districts
• Others?
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Going beyond current graduation rate measures How can we improve graduation rate measurement to bring about higher graduation rates?
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How many variability issues are solved by clearly defining terms and collecting 5-, 6-, and even 7-year high school graduation rates?
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Can we construct graduation rates for all students attending schools (district, charter, private?) in political and metropolitan boundaries?
• Mayors whose city encompasses multiple school districts and charters
• Metropolitan areas pursuing integrated economic and social development efforts
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How can we measure students who drop out before 9th grade?
• At the state level?
• At the district level?
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Can we gather accurate data on where students are falling off-track to graduation?
• How many credits earned when the student is a first time 9th-grader?
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Can we gather accurate data on how entering 9th-grade classes vary among schools?
• By 8th-grade test scores?
• By 8th-grade attendance?
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Initial recommendations
• Working groups (existing or new) make recommendations on technical issues in six to nine months.
• Working groups (existing or new) make recommendations on complicated issues in 12 to 18 months.
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We would like your help to • Identify elementary and middle schools
that feed low-performing high schools
• Identify all districts in a metro area easily, whether public, private or charter (with different types of chartering organizations); easily identify the numbers of students and those in subgroups in a metro area.
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For more information and to download the report, please visit: GradNation.org/gradreport For state indices, please visit: www.every1graduates.org