fundamentals of foresight
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Explanation of the Science of Foresight and Trendcasting.TRANSCRIPT
Fundamentals of Foresight: Lesson 1, Introduction
Welcome to the first lesson in a series that I believe you'll find useful and informative--not only when you make decisions as an individual or organization, but also when you work toward creating a better future and making a positive impact on the world around you.
The first four lessons in this ten-part series will introduce you to eight practical, tried-and-true futuring methods (two per lesson). These methods will help you navigate uncertainties, take advantage of new opportunities, and guard against potential problems. Subsequent lessons will present step-by-step instructions to powerful futuring exercises that utilize these methods, building upon what we've learned.
In his book Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, World Future Society founder Edward Cornish writes, "The goal of futuring is not to predict the future, but to improve it." It is with this in mind that we now introduce you to the basic concepts of foresight.
* Elements of Foresight: Scanning and the DEGEST Method
Scanning is the ongoing and systematic examination of current newspapers, magazines, Web sites, and other media resources in order to spot significant trends occurring over a period of time and changes that are likely to take place. It's a great way to stay one step ahead of the curve. There are 3 steps:
* Scan * Clip * Review
This technique was originally developed by military intelligence officers who scanned publications for clues to what was happening in enemy countries. They didn't read every article, of course. Instead, they would skim through them, keeping an eye out for specific key words. This approach was used extensively during World War II, and continues to be used in business and government today.
The news media focuses on reporting individual events. However, instead of focusing exclusively on one isolated news story, we're going to concentrate on the bigger picture, tracking many different events over time--events that relate, however tangentially, to our personal and professional lives. This will help us spot the long-term trends. Often we don't realize that we're part of an emerging trend until it has already fully emerged. Let's identify and understand the shifts that are happening now. [Brainstorm a list of trend lines that could be followed. DARPA PDF and Videos:http://www.darpa.mil/news_videos/videos.html ]
It's important to recognize trends at an early stage in their
development. This ensures that you have enough time to respond to emerging risks and opportunities. Constant scanning updates our knowledge of the world and acts as a radar system for business and government.
So, now that you've successfully identified several emerging trends, what do you do? How do you organize your information? What methodology will you use to classify, analyze, and evaluate the trends? This is where the DEGEST Method comes in.
There are various classification systems and methodologies in play. One of the very best was introduced by Northwestern University marketing professor Philip Kotler in his popular textbook Marketing Management. Kotler developed the DEGEST system (widely utilized in the business world and also used in The Futurist magazine, which publishes a selection of current trends in each issue). Kotler decided that the most significant business trends fell into six distinct categories:
Demographics
One example of an emerging demographic trend: in the developed world, the average age is increasing, as people choose to have fewer children later in life. Think about the different impacts of this demographic shift.
Economics
The economy provides jobs, income, and products essential to our lives. But the world's economies are changing furiously. This means there will be many more opportunities for new businesses and new jobs--but also big challenges for individuals and communities.
Government
Laws and regulations change constantly, affecting all aspects of our lives. Governments levy taxes, make war, enforce laws, and are the largest employers in most nations.
Environment
Issues pertaining to the natural world and how we interact with it.
Society
Popular culture, the media, the education system, religious and spiritual paths, and all the ways we interact with each other.
Technology
New technologies are revolutionizing human life everywhere. To stay up-to-date, we need a general understanding of what's happening in
computers, telecommunications, biotech, etc. New technologies raise living standards and also pose a wide variety of challenges.
By the way, as you may have noticed, many trends and developments could easily be classified in two or more categories. Technology trends, for example, not only shape our personal lives but can also have major impacts on the economy, the government, and the environment. Your next step is to make connections across the categories. Also, feel free to add new categories, or to modify the DEGEST system in a way that works best for you. [Concept Map?]
This simple classification scheme provides us with a powerful tool to improve our understanding of the world around us. Now we can begin to see how everything--all of the pieces of the puzzle--fit together to form the big picture.
(adapted from Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish, available from the World Future Society, http://www.wfs.org/wfsbooks.htm)
Congratulations on completing the first lesson in the series! You have now been introduced to two distinct yet interrelated methods of futuring (Scanning and DEGEST). Next week's installment willintroduce you to two more tried-and-true forecasting methods, and build upon what we've just learned. Get ready for Lesson 2: Trend Analysis and Scenarios!
Other Resources:
According to Kotler: The World's Foremost Authority on Marketing Answers Your Questions by Philip Kotler. American Management Association. 2005. 168 pages. Paperback. Philip Kotler's marketing genius has been distilled here in an easily accessible format that addresses such questions as what the marketing department of the future will look like, and what marketing strategies make sense during a recession. According to Kotler is a must-have guide for anyone with something to sell. Order from Amazon.com: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0814472958/thefuturistbooks
FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change by Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown. Prentice Hall. 2005. 234 pages. Futurists Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown have helped hundreds of leading enterprises, such as 3M and Merck, anticipate and respond to change. In FutureThink they share their foresight strategies and trend analysis techniques with you. FutureThink will help you not just prepare for the future, but claim it. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/013185674X/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 2: Trend Analysis and Scenarios
Welcome to the second lesson in the series! Last week, you learned two powerful futuring techniques: Scanning and the DEGEST Method. This week, continuing where we left off, we'll examine two more: Trend Analysis and Scenarios.
In the 1970s, the Institute of Life Insurance in New York developed a program to alert insurance people of developments outside their industry that might be relevant to their business. They called the program Trend Analysis.
Trend Analysis addresses the nature, causes, speed, and potential impacts of a developing trend. Trends can have both primary and secondary impacts. For example, longer life-spans not only increase the number of people for whom resources must be provided (a primary impact) but also increase the number of people who can contribute to the economy through paid and unpaid labor (a secondary impact).
The value of understanding trends is increasingly recognized in the business world. Executives know that a company that fails to adapt to current trends is quickly left behind. Knowledge of significant world, national, and religious trends provides an invaluable background for making practical judgments about your goals and strategies. Being unaware of the trends means risking the possibility of having a business, career, or investment crushed by a wave of unrecognized change. By utilizing trend analysis, individuals and organizations can hope to ride the waves of change toward their goals.
Trend Analysis can be divided into three parts:
* Analysis: Once you identify a trend, you'll need to find out what caused it, how fast it's developing, and how it will impact you both personally and professionally. Remember: a trend can have lots of different impacts, many of which may not be immediately apparent. Keep an eye out for those secondary impacts!
Causal Analysis identifies the forces that are creating and shaping the trend. Often, these forces are themselves trends, so you may have to probe further to identify the causes of the contributory trends. This analysis is especially important if you want to slow or halt the trends.
Impact Analysis identifies the effects of the trend. All too often, important consequences escape notice. Something to keep in mind: a trend can have many surprising consequences, and anticipating those can be tricky.
* Monitoring: Trends viewed as particularly important should be carefully monitored--watched and reported on regularly. For example, a rapidly rising unemployment rate or the appearance of a deadly new
disease such as XDRTB (an extremely drug-resistant strain of tuberculosis) can have significant impacts on many different organizations and communities.
* Projection: When statistics are available, a trend can be plotted on graph paper to show how the trend has evolved over time. If desired, the trend line can then be extended or "projected" into the future, based on the recent rate of change. Such a projection shows where the trend should be at some point in the future--assuming there is no shift in the rate of change, that is. However, additional factors will often cause that change rate to vary.
Here's an example: A population with a steady 2% rate of annual growth will double in about 35 years. Based on that projection, we can now begin to figure out what some of the consequences would be: More traffic, more pollution, less green space, more businesses and cultural activities, and so on. And now that we have a conceptual structure, we can start to think realistically about what the future holds in store. We can also start asking ourselves questions about how best to plan for and to shape the future. Far too often, people talk about what to do and how to do it before they understand the situation they are in and how it's shifting.
That said, it's unlikely that we'll be 100% accurate. We'll probably be off to some degree, and maybe even miss it by a mile. The farther down the line we try to project a trend, the more likely it is that our anticipation will be wide of the mark. Nonetheless, trend projection has proven extremely invaluable when forecasting everything from economic and demographic shifts to the likelihood of armed conflict breaking out in a given country or region. And a knowledge of current trends and their possible implications is highly relevant to the practical decisions we make.
Another way to measure the impact of a particular trend is by leading it through an imaginary set of consequences. This technique, known as Scenarios, can help you better understand where a specific trend is heading and how it could impact you. (It's also helpful for identifying the possible outcomes of different business strategies as well.) Well-thought-out stories can help you figure out the best possible ways to react and adjust to future developments.
Try the following exercise: First, choose a trend that will most likely have a long-term impact on your organization. Now tell a story about it. Describe, in narrative form, the future development of that trend. Take into account as many variables and outside factors as you can think of.
Scenarios: Very serious fiction
In the 1950s, during the height of the Cold War, Herman Kahn and the RAND Corporation, working for the U.S. military, described what might
happen in the event that World War III broke out. They asked some seriously tough questions, such as: What would happen if ten U.S. cities were hit by thermonuclear bombs? How might New York City be evacuated on short notice? And then they used reason and imagination to try and answer those questions.
Scenarios aren't forecasts, but they aren't science fiction either. By putting your thoughts and ideas into story form, you can identify things that might happen, describe how they might actually occur, and figure out what the consequences would be. Well-thought-out scenarios allow us to weigh the pros and cons of various decisions. Scenarios don't provide precise knowledge about the future, but they do enable us to make better, more informed decisions, both personally and professionally.
The multiple-scenario approach forces us to think about the future in terms of alternative possibilities, rather than a fixed, predetermined outcome. In this case, we are going to create not just one but three alternative scenarios:
1. The Surprise-Free Scenario: this storyline assumes that current trends will continue without much change. (This is often called the "business-as-usual scenario.") 2. The Optimistic Scenario: this storyline is based on the assumption that things will only get better. 3. The Pessimistic Scenario: this storyline is based on the assumption that things will only get worse.
We could even go further and add two more possible scenarios: a Disaster Scenario and a Miracle Scenario. Five scenarios are probably the most that you'll want to develop, however.
By the way, scenarios aren't exclusively for the heavy issues. You can use scenarios to help you decide where to spend your vacation, whether to accept a new job, how to get into the college of your choice, whether to ask out that special someone on a date ... just about anything, as a matter of fact.
Scenarios are an excellent way to give order to your thoughts and concerns about the future. In an upcoming lesson, we'll discuss ways to unlock our creativity when coming up with ideas, so if you're feeling uninspired, don't get discouraged! It happens to everyone. The good news is that there are plenty of ways to stimulate our creativity when conducting futuring exercises and practicing the techniques. So stay tuned!
(from Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish, available from the World Future Society, http://www.wfs.org/wfsbooks.htm.)
Congratulations on completing Lesson 2! You have now been introduced
to four distinct yet interrelated methods of futuring. Next week's installment will introduce you to two more tried-and-true forecasting methods, and continue to build upon what we've learned. Stay tuned for Lesson 3: Delphi Polling and Models/Simulations/Games!
Other Resources:
Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change by Adam Gordon. AMACOM 2008. 304 pages. A hands-on, how-to book on evaluating the business, social, and technology forecasts that appear in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, as well as in specialized sources like government and think-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. Futures analyst Adam Gordon has spent his career deciphering changes and trends in a variety of industries. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0814409121/thefuturistbooks
The Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times by Bill Ralston and Ian Wilson. Thompson Publishing 2006. 256 pages. Defines and explains various approaches to scenario planning in rigorous detail, but also features good information on scenarios generally. It includes real-world case studies of scenarios in action at firms such as Nokia and Royal Dutch Shell, which was instrumental in the popularization of the SRI scenario model. The authors also describe how to use scenarios to create a "change-oriented culture" within an organization. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0324312857/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 3: Delphi Polling and Modeling/Simulations/Games
The third lesson in this series presents two more ways to help you navigate uncertainties, spot new opportunities, and guard against potential problems.
Delphi Polling:
In 1953, two RAND Corporation scientists, Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey, developed a polling process that they believed would generate more accurate results than traditional opinion-gathering approaches. They called it the Delphi method. Their idea was to gather together a group of experts in a given field, and ask the same questions to each member of the group. They kept the answers separate and anonymous in order to minimize social influences. Afterwards, the responses were analyzed, to learn where the experts agreed and disagreed. The next step was to present the experts with a summary of the results, and then poll them again to see if any of them chose to revise their initial responses.
The Delphi method was first used during the height of the Cold War, in order to discover the answers to top-secret military questions, such as: how many Soviet atomic bombs would be needed to destroy the U.S. munitions industry? Delphi polling is often conducted to get a broader range of opinion in the hope of increasing the accuracy of projections and forecasts. Carefully structured surveys of experts in a given field can yield more accurate forecasts of coming events.
The Oracle at Delphi was venerated throughout the ancient world as the ultimate prognosticator of future events. Yet the oracle's ambiguous responses were difficult to decipher and left a great deal to interpretation. Helmer and Dalkey's Delphi method, by contrast, is grounded in logic and allows us to make better-informed, more accurate, and more rational predictions.
Modeling, Simulations and Games:
Close your eyes and imagine that you're getting ready to build your dream house. Do you just start digging a hole and mixing concrete, or do you design it in advance, drafting an architectural model and taking into account all of the necessary materials, associated costs, and other variables that might not have occurred to you at first? More to the point, could you conceive of building a house to live in without first creating an architectural model and designing it beforehand?
Models and simulations are practical and sometimes necessary ways of thinking things through in advance. A good definition of them would
be: dynamic descriptions of the behavior of complex systems in "what- if" situations. The interplay of variables is driven by the rules of the model, and the biggest challenge is getting the rules drafted accurately.
We all have experience using these techniques, whether consciously or not. From an early age, whenever we imagined what something might be like, we were mentally constructing models and running simulations. Little did we realize that this way of thinking was also used by philosophers and scientists from Galileo to Einstein, who trained their minds to accurately imagine what might occur, given a certain set of circumstances, in order to achieve breakthroughs.
Computer modeling has been used to study industrial processes, urban planning, and countless other topics since the 1970s, when MIT professor Jay W. Forrester developed a world model that dealt with population change, economic growth, and other factors. Computer simulations have the advantage of being able to process large amounts of data incredibly rapidly, but there are drawbacks. Analyses may not take all of the variables into account, and computers generally lack their programmers' intuitive knowledge about human behavior. Nevertheless, computers are highly useful when simulating the behavior of a complex system under a variety of conditions. For example, a model of the U.S. economy might show the effects of a 10% increase in taxes. And there are other uses as well.
"Shall we play a game?" "Love to. How about Global Thermonuclear War?"
If you recall this bit of dialogue from the movie WarGames, then you're familiar with the concept of gaming--the simulation of real- world military scenarios by means of role-playing. War games help soldiers understand what combat is like in a particular war zone, and allow generals to test out different strategies and tactics. Today, some of the U.S. military's multiplayer simulations are played out on a mock-battlefield, while others come in the form of video games designed for the Xbox.
On the other side of the spectrum, many advanced high-school students participate in the Model United Nations, an experiential education program that provides an exciting way to learn about leadership and diplomacy. And for civilians, there is always The Sims, which pop culture critic Chuck Klosterman describes as "a video game where you do all the things you would do in real life if you weren't playing a video game" and where your character comes with a built-in free will component. As computer gaming technology becomes more sophisticated, the results more closely resemble those of real life. Another advantage of gaming is that it brings out the excitement of a competition, so it can be useful in getting people emotionally involved in thinking about problems and how to solve them.
(from Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish, available from the World Future Society, http://www.wfs.org/wfsbooks.htm.)
At this point, you've been introduced to six proven futuring methods. These powerful tools are yours to take advantage of. There are many other excellent techniques as well, which we'll explore in the coming weeks. Upcoming installments will discuss the necessity of developing Strategic Foresight, as well as how to anticipate and respond to high- impact, low-probability, often-destructive events known as Wild Cards.
Other Resources: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners edited by J. Scott Armstrong. Springer 2001. 849 pages. 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of "if-then principles," and they summarize evidence on these principles. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0792374010/thefuturistbooks
Story and Simulations for Serious Games: Tales from the Trenches by Nicholas Iuppa and Terry Borst. Focal Press 2006. 272 pages. Examines how to create an engaging, effective story (necessary to teach participants), while relating practical considerations of building a simulation. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/024080788X/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 4: Brainstorming and Visioning
The fourth lesson in this series presents two more ways to help you navigate uncertainties, spot new opportunities, and guard against potential problems.
Brainstorming:
Serious efforts to stimulate people's creativity began emerging in the 1950s, when New York advertising executive Alex F. Osborn developed what he called "brainstorming" as a way to get ideas for ad campaigns. He described his technique in his book Applied Imagination (1952), which received a lot of attention from the business community. Brainstorming is probably the most famous and most popular idea- creating technique used today.
A brainstorming session, as developed by Osborn, has four basic rules for generating ideas:
1. Defer judgment on any of the ideas. 2. Try to develop a lot of ideas and not worry about their quality. 3. Strive for unusual ideas. 4. Build on other people's ideas.
The leader of the brainstorming session encourages participants to offer ideas related to the problems at hand. Wild ideas are encouraged, and criticism of any idea is strictly forbidden, since the initial goal is to come up with as many ideas as possible, not to select the best. One member of the group records all the ideas, and after one or more brainstorming sessions, an evaluation meeting is held to consider the ideas proposed. The ideas may be sorted, ranked according to priority, and forwarded to whoever is in charge for possible action.
A close relative of thought experimentation, brainstorming is a great way to identify different possibilities, opportunities, and risks, and to develop innovative long-term strategies.
Visioning--Thinking in the Future Tense:
Envisioning a desirable future is essential for an organization or an individual. Visioning prepares the way for goal setting. It involves the consideration of past and present trends as well as tactical discussions of how to most effectively move towards that desired future. In the words of Austrian writer, activist, and social inventor Robert Jungk, "we must do something to prevent the crises of tomorrow so that we can avoid disasters. We must mobilize people ahead of time." Jungk conceived of visioning as a democratic process whereby groups of people could create their own vision of the best possible future.
Starting in 1962, Jungk organized and conducted "future workshops," in which he encouraged people to review and revise their ideas about the future and then try to create a vision of what they wanted the future to be like. The workshops had four stages:
1. The critique phase, during which all the grievances and negative experiences related to the chosen topic are expressed openly. 2. The fantasy phase, in which the participants come up with ideas in response to the problems, and list their desires, fantasies and alternative views. 3. The selection phase, in which a selection is made of the most interesting notions and small working groups develop them into solutions and outline projects. 4. The implementation phase. Now, participants can step back and critically assess the chances of getting their projects implemented, identifying the obstacles, and imaginatively seeking ways around them as they draw up a plan of action.
Jungk had the foresight to recognize that a shared vision is an incredibly powerful agent of change. Nowadays, many others, from community organizers to behavioral scientists, have firmly embraced this concept as well. Today, there are hundreds of consultants who facilitate "visioning" programs for companies, communities, and other groups.
Clement Bezold, founder and chairman of the Institute for Alternative Futures, outlines five stages in building a vision: (1) identification of problems, (2) identification of past successes, (3) identification of desires for the future, (4) identification of measurable goals, and (5) identification of resources to achieve those goals.
Bezold says that a scenario addresses the head, but a vision addresses the heart. The continuing popularity of Visioning suggests that it truly appeals to people, and has genuine value as a technique for generating ideas, encouraging interaction in a group, and focusing that group on a common set of goals.
(from Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish, available from the World Future Society, http://www.wfs.org/wfsbooks.htm.)
At this point, you've been introduced to eight proven futuring methods. These powerful tools are yours to take advantage of. We'll put several of these to use in the next lesson, where you'll learn the necessity of having Strategic Foresight, as well as how to anticipate and respond to high-impact, low-probability, often-destructive events known as Wild Cards.
Other Resources: Thinkertoys: A Handbook of Creative-Thinking Techniques
by Michael Michalko. Ten Speed Press 2006. 394 pages. THINKERTOYS will teach you how to generate new ideas for businesses, markets, sales techniques, and products and product extensions. Packed with fun and practical tools and exercises, it outlines 30 practical linear and intuitive techniques that can be used by individuals or groups to tackle and solve business problems in fresh, creative ways. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1580087736/thefuturistbooks
Timelines into the Future: Strategic Visioning Methods for Government, Business, and Other Organizations by Sheila R. Ronis Hamilton Press 2007. 196 pages. Every organization needs a vision -- every company, non-profit, school, church, and government agency or department, whether they are local, state, national, or global. The processes are all generally the same. This book addresses how to go about developing foresight and establishing a grand strategy. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0761836810/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 5: Strategic Foresight
So far, you have learned eight practical, tried-and-true methods to help you navigate uncertainties, spot new opportunities, and guard against potential problems. In the previous lessons, we were introduced to:
* Scanning * DEGEST * Trend Analysis * Scenarios * Delphi Polling * Modeling and Simulations * Brainstorming * Visioning
If you skipped over any of these, I recommend taking the time to go back and review them before proceeding. The following lessons will build on what we've learned so far.
And now, without further ado, allow me to introduce you to Strategic Foresight: an exercise that's used by many forward-thinking businesses and organizations, and that incorporates several of the above methods.
Here is your step-by-step guide.
First, let's do a little pre-work: Think about what's most critical to you or your organization's future success. Maybe you're coming up with ideas in your mind, maybe you're scribbling them down on a notepad. As you strive to achieve these goals, Strategic Foresight gives you a solid methodology to work with. In these six steps, you will explore these different possibilities and discover their ramifications.
The six steps are:
1. Framing 2. Scanning 3. Forecasting 4. Visioning 5. Planning 6. Acting
Step 1: Framing
The first step is to clearly frame your objective. Carefully define your purposes and goals. The long-term future is naturally fuzzy and uncertain, and it's hard to evaluate vague issues such as "Where will X technology be in ten years?" But as tempting as it is to skip this step, don't do it! Embrace the ambiguity! Ask yourself who this process is for, why you want to go through with it, and what you would
ultimately like to get out of this process.
* Quick Tip #1: Strategic Foresight is not about being the first to stumble upon the latest and greatest secrets. It's about understanding and acting upon the information that's already freely available and benefiting from it--before others are even aware of what's happening.
Step 2: Scanning
As we learned way back in Lesson 1, Scanning is an ongoing and systematic examination of different media and other resources in order to identify significant trends and changes occurring over time that will impact the future. Remember: Scanning focuses mainly on trends rather than isolated events. You can choose to analyze both strong and weak signals of potential change, as you investigate the context and implications of data relating to the issue at hand.
Step 3: Forecasting
This is the "what if?" step. This is where you get to create alternative futures based on what you just learned in Step 2. Most organizations believe that the future is going to be pretty much like the past. This belief is often based on a series of easy assumptions that go unchallenged. We're going to challenge them now.
You should seriously address the possibility that things may not continue as they have been. And you should prepare yourself to rise to the challenges of the future. Remember, the future is inherently unknowable, and there's no way to get it exactly right. Hence the need for envisioning alternative futures. Come up with a wide range of potential options, and then narrow them down to no more than a half dozen or so.
Step 4: Visioning (or, getting there from here)
This is the "so what?" step. This is where you ask, given the possibilities, what does your organization want (or need) to do? In other words, it's all about choices and outcomes. Outline a path from where you are to where you want to go.
The organization should express its hopes, dreams, and aspirations about the future. Because you're asking this question realistically, it is not mere wishful thinking anymore. It is preferable to err on the side of being overly ambitious at this point, as the next phase (Planning) concerns itself with how to bring that vision into being. At that point, you'll have an opportunity to scale back or fine-tune your vision. For now, think big!
* Quick Tip #2: the goal of this exercise is to make better, more informed decisions in the present. Forecasting lays out a range of possible futures to consider so that you can act effectively now.
Step 5: Planning
Planning is the bridge between Vision and Action. When you develop strategic options and multiple contingency plans, you ensure that your organization will be highly equipped to manage the uncertainty of the future. Compare what could potentially happen (the alternative futures) with what you would like to see happen (your vision). Now you can make an informed decision about the best course of action to take.
Step 6: Acting
Ask yourself what do you need to do, who will do it, how, and (if not now) when? Create an agenda and clearly communicate it to the members of your organization. After all that hard preparatory work, now is the time to take action!
* Quick Tip #3: Remember, Strategic Foresight is an ongoing process! Strategic Foresight allows you to rid yourself of false assumptions and feelings of uncertainty and be better prepared to face your future. To paraphrase Buckminster Fuller, every time you conduct an experiment, you always learn more - you cannot learn less.
Congratulations! You've just completed your first futuring exercise!
(adapted from "Strategic Foresight: The State of the Art" by Andy Hines. This article first appeared in the September-October 2006 issue of The Futurist.)
Other Resources Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight edited by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop. Social Technologies 2007. 253 pages. Distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. Presented in a highly scannable yet personable style, each guideline includes an explanation and rationale, key steps, a case example, and resources for further study. The 115 guidelines are organized into six sequential categories that mirror the phases of a strategic foresight activity, namely Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/097893170X/thefuturistbooks
Strategic Foresight: The Power of Standing in The Future by Nick Marsh, Mike McCallum, and Dominique Purcell. Crown Content, 2002. 299 pages. Shows you how to stand in the future of your sector and see what needs to be changed today in your business. A step by step framework is illustrated by case studies in both business corporations and governmental organizations. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1740950046/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 6: Wild Cards
"Although problems and catastrophes may be inevitable, solutions are not." --Isaac Asimov.
So far, we've been introduced to eight futuring methods. Last week, we discovered a powerful exercise called Strategic Foresight that enabled us to utilize several of those methods. And in the weeks ahead, we'll continue to build on what we've learned.
In the meantime, prepare yourself for Lesson Six ... Wild Cards!
Explosions! Chaos! Panic in the streets! This is the lesson you've been waiting for! The term "wild cards" refers to highly unexpected events that would have enormous consequences if they actually occurred. Fortunately, it's extremely unlikely that they will ever happen. Yet, there's always a chance--and if something so unexpected actually did take place, it's almost guaranteed that it will catch everyone off-guard. We typically assume that there's no way to anticipate or prepare for wild card events. This is a dangerous assumption.
On one level, we love wild card events. We love them as big-budget spectacles in Hollywood movies, from The Day After Tomorrow (global warming) to I Am Legend (global epidemic) and many others. In these movies, the entire planet is caught completely off-guard, governments and citizens alike entirely unprepared for the devastation that is about to be unleashed upon them. That's a large part of what makes these movies so entertaining to watch. But if such events were to happen in real life, we would prefer to follow the old Boy Scout motto and Be Prepared! So, let's prepare ourselves. Seatbelts fastened everyone? Good. Let's begin.
The rapidly growing technological prowess of humans has, for the first time in history, produced new classes of wild cards that could potentially destroy the entire human race. It's extremely important to think about what the potential outcomes would be (as wildly improbable as they are), and to be aware of the dramatic changes that they can cause. If thinking ahead can't prevent such events from occurring, at least it can help us become better prepared for when they do.
Wild cards are high-impact, low-probability events that are too destructive to allow to happen. There are three basic principles for dealing with wild cards:
1. Learn as much as you can about a wild card ahead of time. The more you know about a potential event, the less threatening it becomes and the more likely you'll come up with solutions. (recommended technique: Brainstorming)
2. Identify early warning signs and develop potential responses using the most sophisticated and effective information-gathering and analysis tools available. A word to the wise: early indicators for big events may not be immediately recognizable or obvious. (recommended techniques: Scanning, Visioning, Scenarios)
3. Extraordinary events require extraordinary approaches. We are moving into a new period when potential events may outstrip our current ability to understand and deal with them. These events look so enormous and frightening because our usual methods of problem solving are not up to dealing with them. New approaches will be needed.
And wouldn't it be great if we could actually eliminate some of the wild cards from the deck, particularly the really big ones? What if you discovered that some threats could actually be completely neutralized? What lengths would you go to in order to achieve this goal?
As you ponder that question, here are some examples of wild card events:
Climate Change. A very real possibility. What's the best way to prevent an environmental meltdown? Are multiple solutions called for, and if so, what are they? The documentary An Inconvenient Truth used the media to bring rising concerns about global warming into mainstream consciousness. As a result, many more people are working to create a more sustainable path to the future.
Bioterrorism. A global epidemic is something else to consider. Some experts predict that the technology to manufacture and structurally alter bacteria and viruses will become widely available to anyone with Internet access and a modicum of scientific training within the next decade. Bacteria and viruses could be altered to increase their lethality or to evade antibiotic treatment. Also, diseases once thought to be eradicated could be re-synthesized, enabling them to spread in new regions.
Nuclear Terrorism is always a threat. Already, nuclear materials have reportedly been stolen or sold from the former Soviet Union. Information on assembling nuclear devices can now be found on the Internet--and accessing that know-how is as easy as typing search words into Google. Experts believe that, in addition to the structural damage and loss of life that would inevitably result, a nuclear attack on the U.S. would cause large-scale panic. It would also encourage even more "rogue" groups to adopt these tactics and weaponry.
An accidental disaster on the level of Three Mile Island or Chernobyl is equally troublesome. A large radioactive release triggered by an accident at a nuclear facility could have devastating health and economic consequences. Anti-nuclear activists have long argued that if
one of the three aging nuclear reactors located less than 25 miles away from Wall Street should spring a leak, it could actually lead to an emergency evacuation of New York City.
Other wild cards might include the collapse of the United Nations or a dictator gaining power over a democratic country. For better or worse, the possibilities are endless.
And if Hollywood has taught us anything, it's that we must prepare for the inevitable Robot Uprising. Your computer may very well be actively preparing for the day when all machines will join together to enslave the human race!
You've been warned.
(adapted from "The 'Wild Cards' in Our Future: Preparing for the Improbable" by John L. Petersen. This article first appeared in the July-August 1997 issue of The Futurist.)
Stay tuned! The next installment will discuss how to recognize Signs of Change. After that, we'll examine different methods to jump-start your creativity when conducting futuring exercises.
Other Resources
A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change by John L. Petersen Fulcrum Publishing 2008. 128 pages. Many believe that the world is entering a time of monumental change. In this timely and insightful essay, noted futurist John L. Petersen explains how our leaders can prepare for life-altering events, such as climate change, oil shortages, financial upheaval, epidemics, or a new level of sophistication among terrorists. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1555916619/thefuturistbooks
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology by Ray Kurzweil. Penguin 2006. 762 pages. The "singularity" is a period several decades ahead when technological change will be so rapid and deep that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Technology will allow us to design bodies and brains that will last longer and perform better, e.g.: nanobots (molecular-level robots) will reverse human aging and vastly extend human intelligence. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0143037889/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 7: Recognizing Signs of Change and Elements of Surprise, and Preparing for Multiple Futures
"It is on the regular path that the wild beast attacks." -African proverb.
In previous lessons, we explored eight essential futuring methods. We built on those fundamentals when we learned Strategic Foresight. We also prepared ourselves for large-scale wild card events. This week, we're going to take it up a notch and talk about Wide-Angle Vision, another powerful tool.
Close your eyes for a moment and imagine you're driving down a dark road late at night. Suddenly, out of nowhere, someone or something darts out in front of your car. Your foot slams on the brake. As the car screeches to a halt, you hope and pray that you responded fast enough to avoid a collision.
OK. Now imagine that you've been given a second chance to relive that moment. This time around, you're paying greater attention, scanning the road from left to right, watching for signs of the unexpected. You notice something on the side of the road up ahead, you're not sure what--and now you are anticipating something happening. In this case, you have allowed yourself enough time to think over your options.
What do you choose to do?
Now you have options.
The moral of the story: Be proactive instead of reactive!
If you pride yourself on your reflex time, then congratulations to you! However, relying on your instant reflexes (in this case, slamming on your brakes as hard as you possibly can) isn't always the best response. And if your only choice is to respond quickly, then it may already be too late to change the outcome of the situation.
Anticipation is the key.
Anticipation prepares us for action. It increases our options. And at its best, anticipation means that those quick reflexes of yours are now a distant backup plan. It's always best to plan ahead--to slow down early, drive more cautiously, and make the smartest decision possible.
These are the four skills you need in order to better anticipate what's about to happen:
* Scanning
Try focusing on the big picture instead of fixating on the details. Place the information you've gathered into a larger context. This will help you more effectively analyze the data, find solutions, and gain perspective on a given situation. In other words, go macro, rather than micro.
* Creating a Mental Model
If you recall Lesson 2, this should already be second nature for you. The mental model we're creating here is an explicit, detailed, dynamic description of an event that's based on a consistent set of assumptions that can be readjusted as the situation changes. It's a great way to think a situation through in advance. We can use mental models to notice any warning signs. Now that we've noticed them, it's on to the next step...
* Reading the Warning Signs
Keep an eye out for any surprising deviations from the expected. Rather than concentrating on comprehending all of the available information and data, see if you can figure out "which of these things is not like the other." Red-flag anything that seems out of the ordinary.
* Develop Early-Warning Systems
Consistent vigilance is essential. But it's easy to let your guard down. All that scanning, day after day, and nothing ever really happens. It's dull, tedious, monotonous work ... and I mean, no offense, but what's the point?
The moment you let your guard down, you become just as vulnerable as you were before you started the process. So keep at it! Anticipation is critical to survival in a constantly changing world.
Workshop Exercise: Strategic Vision
This simple two-step exercise was developed for organizations like yours.
1. Ask yourself what's most important in terms of your organization's ability to succeed.
2. Now make a list of your organization's areas of strategic vulnerability as you work hard to succeed.
Count how many areas of vulnerability you identified. Most companies create lists of 20 to 30 critical items. How many of the items on your list do you regularly check for? Too many businesses focus exclusively on the most obvious ones. They may have very thorough plans in place with regard to those obvious critical areas--thus believing themselves
to be protected from getting caught off-guard. But we know better. Check for all of them--and stay vigilant!
Quick caveat: Your strategic vision won't tell you how to act in a crisis situation, but it will prepare you to take action. It empowers you by enabling you to anticipate what might potentially occur. Surprise turns into crisis not because we don't look to the future, but because we look to a single future. For example, how many businesses adjusted their business plans when the price of oil began to skyrocket?
(adapted and excerpted from "Developing Your Wide-Angle Vision" by Wayne Burkan. This article first appeared in the March 1998 issue of The Futurist.)
Stay tuned! We'll get a chance to express our creativity in the next installment! Congratulations on completing Lesson 7!
Other Resources
Wide-Angle Vision: Beat Your Competition by Focusing on Fringe Competitors, Lost Customers, and Rogue Employees by Wayne Burkan. Wiley. 1996. 275 pages. By looking toward "the edges," businesses can spot possible innovative ideas or sources of impending threats. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471134163/thefuturistbooks
FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change by Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown. Prentice Hall 2005. 234 pages. Futurists Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown have helped hundreds of leading enterprises, such as 3M and Merck, anticipate and respond to change. In FutureThink they share their foresight strategies and trend analysis techniques with you. FutureThink will help you not just prepare for the future, but claim it. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/013185674X/thefuturistbooks
Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight edited by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop. Social Technologies 2007. 253 pages. Distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. Presented in a highly scannable yet personable style, each guideline includes an explanation and rationale, key steps, a case example, and resources for further study. The 115 guidelines are organized into six sequential categories that mirror the phases of a strategic foresight activity, namely Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/097893170X/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 8: Productive Thinking--The Value of
Creativity
"The worthwhile problems are the ones you can really solve or help solve, the ones you can really contribute something to. ... No problem is too small or too trivial if we can really do something about it." --Dr. Richard Feynman.
In previous lessons, we explored eight essential futuring methods. We built on those fundamentals when we learned Strategic Foresight. We also prepared ourselves for large-scale wild card events and discussed the importance of developing Wide-Angle Vision. This week, we're going to learn about the importance of thinking productively and the value of creativity.
Whenever Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman was stuck on a problem, he would invent new thinking strategies. He was a strong advocate for thinking about problems many different ways using trial and error. In fact, he believed that his secret strength was his ability to invent new ways to think about things. If something wasn't working, he would look at the problem from different angles and use his imagination to find a solution. He was amazingly productive. He could accomplish in 10 minutes something that might take the average physicist a year. This week, we're going to learn about Feynman's "secret strength," also known as Productive Thinking.
Our default mode, incidentally, is Reproductive Thinking. When we're seeking a solution to a problem, we typically fixate on something we did that worked before and exclude all other approaches. It's much easier to stick with a familiar, supposedly "safe" way of doing things than to risk trying something new that might work better. And it's not a huge leap to convince ourselves that the safe solution is the best solution. But it rarely (if ever) actually is.
In other words, Reproductive Thinking is a problem in and of itself-- it indicates a rigid mindset and an allegiance to predetermined responses that can often cause you to fall behind and make the wrong decisions. For example, when Univac first developed a computer, the company's managers refused to talk to business customers because Univac said the computer had no business applications. Then along came IBM. IBM managers, however, believed according to their experiences that there was virtually no market for a personal computer. In fact, they said they were absolutely certain that no more than five or six people in the world needed a personal computer. Then along came Apple.
Creative types shouldn't think this way. They should always look for alternative ways (and invent new ways) of thinking about things. Like Buckminster Fuller, they should train themselves to look at problems from many different angles, and entertain different perspectives that open them up to new possibilities and new information that the rest of us don't see. Creativity means considering large numbers of
alternatives and accepting that for every good idea, there will be many useless ones.
Productive Thinking asks us to produce many ideas and then choose the best one. A good idea may stop you from going on to discover a great one--and a great idea may stop you from discovering the right one.
That said, coming up with new ideas is easier said than done. How can you motivate yourself to generate more original ideas or creative solutions for your business and personal problems? Lucky for you, we just so happen to have several excellent techniques to share:
* Give yourself an idea quota. Suppose I asked you to spend the next few minutes thinking of alternative uses for toilet paper. No doubt, you could think of a handful of ideas, but probably not very many. The science tells us that the average adult would come up with three to six different ideas for that toilet paper. However, if I asked you to list 40 uses for toilet paper as fast as you could, you would come up with quite a lot of ideas very quickly. Setting a quota and a time limit focuses your energy in a competitive way that guarantees fluency of thought. Take inspiration from Thomas Edison's example: he gave himself a quota of one minor invention every 10 days and one major invention every six months.
Quick tip: Don't try to evaluate ideas while you're thinking of them. When you give yourself an idea quota, put your internal critic on hold for a moment, and just write everything down. There will be plenty of time to go through them and edit them down later, and if you try to quickly evaluate each idea as you come up with them, you'll wind up more confused than you were when you started the process.
What you'll find out afterwards when you go through the list is that it took you a little while to get warmed up. The first ideas that spring to mind are typically the "safe" answers--the same ideas you always come up with. Your ideas after that (regardless of their viability) will gradually become more interesting and more creative, and show more insight, curiosity, and complexity.
Got that? OK then, let's move on to the next technique ...
* Practice Conceptual Blending. This is the key to Productive Thinking and the heart of your imagination. Conceptual blending is a cognitive process that we carry out subconsciously. It involves linking or "blending" two concepts together in order to create new meaning. This explains abstract thought and creativity. These blends occur constantly in our minds without our being aware of it, and enable us to create new meanings, ideas, and insight.
The key to creative thinking is to learn how to consciously and deliberately blend dissimilar concepts in order to create something new. Consider Einstein imagining objects in motion and at rest at the
same time. Consider Niels Bohr imagining light as a particle and wave. And consider a link between concepts that Samuel F.B. Morse made: When he saw horses being exchanged at a relay station, it gave him the idea that periodic boosts of power would enable a telegraphic signal to be transmitted all the way across the United States.
Your subconscious blends different concepts for you by first recognizing the counterparts of each concept that interests you. Next it projects these counterparts together. Lastly, this projection bubbles up into your conscious mind as ideas and insights. This is not logical thinking. This is creative thinking. This is the way prehistoric humans thought. This is how to create ideas, insights, and products that cannot be created using any other way of thinking.
Think metaphorically, and let your mind wander as you do so. Practice free association. In order to generate ideas, you need a way to create new sets of patterns in your mind. You need one pattern reacting with another set of patterns to create new waves of ideas.
A feeling of expertise creates a kind of conceptual inertia that inhibits and constrains creative thought in science, art, and industry. Strive to overcome this inertia, and to develop the creative force to put your imagination in motion. Edison summarized it years ago when he said, "Genius is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration."
The above techniques should get you well on your way to thinking creatively and productively.
(adapted and excerpted from "From Bright Ideas to Right Ideas: Capturing the Creative Spark" by Michael Michalko. This article first appeared in the September-October 2003 issue of The Futurist.)
Stay tuned! In the final two lessons in the series, we'll unlock the 10 secrets to Anticipatory Leadership. Congratulations on completing Lesson 8!
Other Resources
Thinkertoys: A Handbook of Creative-Thinking Techniques (2nd Edition) by Michael Michalko. Ten Speed Press 2006. 394 pages. THINKERTOYS will teach you how to generate new ideas for businesses, markets, sales techniques, and products and product extensions. Packed with fun and practical tools and exercises, it outlines 30 practical linear and intuitive techniques that can be used by individuals or groups to tackle and solve business problems in fresh, creative ways. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1580087736/thefuturistbooks
New Ideas about New Ideas: Insights on Creativity from the World's Leading Innovators by Shira P. White with G. Patton Wright. Perseus 2002. 317 pages. Illustrated. Innovation and creativity are essential to business success. Among the
more than 100 creative leaders interviewed for the book are architect Frank Gehry, violin virtuoso Joshua Bell, glass artist Dale Chihuly, and business visionaries Paul Allen of Microsoft and John Loose of Corning. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0738207802/thefuturistbooks
The Seeds of Innovation: Cultivating the Synergy that Fosters New Ideas by Elaine Dundon. AMACOM 2002. 241 pages. Keeping business ideas fresh and creative is often difficult or impossible. Innovation guru Dundon explores the seeds of creative, strategic, and transformational thinking and offers a nine-step process to innovation designed to invigorate any organization. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0814471463/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 9: Anticipatory Leadership, Part One
"What is the most important thing we can think about at this extraordinary moment?" -Buckminster Fuller.
In previous lessons, we explored eight essential futuring methods. We learned how to develop Strategic Foresight, anticipate wild card events, and see with Wide-Angle Vision. Last week's lesson discussed ways to tap into your creative potential in order to master the art of Productive Thinking. The final two-part lesson, Anticipatory Leadership, takes its inspiration from the life and work of Buckminster Fuller. It presents you with 10 leadership skills that will better prepare you to bridge the gap between the present and the future.
If you dream of one day changing the world, there is probably no better model of leadership than that of Buckminster Fuller, who spent his life striving to "make the world work for 100% of humanity." Buckminster Fuller's leadership ideas have influenced people all over the world for generations. The method of comprehensive thinking that he developed forms the basic foundation to Anticipatory Leadership-the ability to identify critical issues before they emerge and to take action in advance.
This is a powerful blueprint for problem-solving leadership in an age of rapid change, and it can be expressed in terms of 10 integral skills. We'll look at five of them this week and five next week. Because these concepts are so important, we've decided to divide the lesson into two parts in order to spend a little more time discussing each of them more in-depth.
And so, without further ado, here are the first five Anticipatory Leadership skills:
* Think Comprehensively. Rather than try to deal with problems in an isolated fashion, take a step back and look at the big picture. Frame the problem within a larger context. You'll need to combine the poet's imagination and the scientist's perspective of the universe as you investigate the formative forces that brought the problem into being. The guiding principle here is the belief that if you "zoom out" as far as you can, and locate as many outside factors as possible, then you'll eventually be able to identify the root causes of the problem. For example, if your organization has a high employee turnover rate, seek to identify the root causes of their departure and address those larger issues. Only once you find out what's actually causing the problem can you begin to address it. Otherwise, you'll wind up just focusing on the symptoms.
* Spot Future Trends.
Bucky Fuller's 1930s Dymaxion car looked bizarre and otherworldly when he first designed it. Yet it would fit right in at the latest auto shows today. His geodesic geometry was later discovered to be a core design principle at the molecular level. Fuller was able to anticipate what the world would need at critical junctures, and then offer both the philosophical framework and the practical tools for solving those issues. He was almost too far ahead of his time, picking up on the trends light years ahead of everyone else. The importance of spotting trends can't be overemphasized: Anticipating them is critical if you're going to accurately pinpoint upcoming problems and find the best possible solutions.
* Understand the Rules of Gestation. Fuller liked to point out that everything has its own gestation rate. Different processes have different rates of growth and maturation. A baby takes nine months; a new computer chip 18 months; an automobile, three to five years. Nowadays, technological gestation rates are much shorter than they used to be, and they're getting shorter each year. In the 1960s, Fuller had already spotted this phenomenon (he referred to it as "accelerating acceleration.")
These gestation rates, along with the implications of "accelerating acceleration," have a profound impact on business leadership. If your invention, solution, or idea arrives too early in the marketplace (or in the marketplace of ideas), it runs the risk of being stillborn. If you are late to market, you'll be stuck playing a catch-up game.
* Do More With Less. Any technology that can create more output with less input will rapidly gain influence in today's hyperlinked global economy, whether it's a hybrid car, delivering more miles per gallon, or a newer, faster, more powerful computer. Creativity and initiative drive the development process. Resources plus human know-how equals the ability to meet our needs.
* Seek to Change the Environment, Not Human Nature. Fuller recognized that it's incredibly difficult to get habit-ridden people to change their ways. Instead of trying to force or even simply convince people to change destructive behaviors, Fuller sought to change the environment to which those behaviors were a logical response.
You'll have more success achieving a desired result if you alter the physical infrastructure in which people live and work. This can have a large impact on people's behavior and encourage them to start acting constructively.
(adapted and excerpted from "The Anticipatory Leader: Buckminster Fuller's Principles from Making the World Work" by Medard Gabel and Jim Walker. This article first appeared in the September-October 2006 issue of The Futurist.)
Stay tuned! Next week, we'll discuss the five remaining principles of anticipatory leadership. We'll ask naïve questions, take individual initiative, solve problems through action, work toward the best possible future, and learn how small efforts can produce big results.
Other Resources:
Corporate Radar: Tracking the Forces that Are Shaping Your Business by Karl Albrecht and Henry Bruner. AMACOM. 1999. 272 pages. This book will enable you to conduct an environmental scan to assess the forces operating in your external environment, on the eight dimensions of customer, competitor, economic, technological, social, political, legal and geophysical. Once you understand what is happening in the outside world you will be able to take advantage of its opportunities and protect yourself against its threats. The book is backed up by stories of companies that have succeeded or failed to understand their environment. (Kirkus UK) http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0814405045/thefuturistbooks
Global Inc.: An Atlas of Multinational Corporations by Medard Gabel and Henry Bruner. The New Press. 2003. 165 pages. Paperback. The product of several years of collaborative research by leading historians and geographers, Global, Inc. is the first book to examine multinational corporations from a truly global perspective and in atlas format. Impartial, accessible, and endlessly engrossing, Global, Inc. offers a penetrating look at one of the most powerful phenomena on the planet in the twenty-first century. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/156584727X/thefuturistbooks
Fundamentals of Foresight, Lesson 10: Anticipatory Leadership, Part Two
In last week's lesson, we learned the first five steps of AnticipatoryLeadership:
1. Thinking Comprehensively2. Spotting Future Trends3. Understanding the Rules of Gestation4. Doing More With Less5. Seeking to Change the Environment (Rather than Human Nature)
This week, we'll focus on steps 6 through 10.
A quick reminder: Anticipatory Leadership is the ability to identifycritical issues before they emerge and to take action in advance. Thispowerful problem-solving toolkit can be broken down into a series of10 integral leadership skills that will better prepare you to bridgethe gap between the present and the future.
And so, without further ado, here are the next five AnticipatoryLeadership skills:
6. Take Individual Initiative.Understanding and expertise (unlike wealth and power) are essential toleadership. Buckminster Fuller believed that we all should be leaders.And we are, in at least one sense--we're leading our own lives. To makea difference in life, you don't need an official blessing or sanction.You just need to be self-motivated. The largest corporations nowreadily acknowledge that their future market success depends onentirely new markets that are (almost always) driven into being by afew self-motivated creative thinkers.
7. Ask Naïve Questions.Why can't we feed everyone on the planet? Why do we do things this wayinstead of that way? What does it mean to be wealthy?
Sometimes leadership involves nothing more than simply asking theobvious questions. The answers can often bring about a surprising joltof action. Revisit and challenge basic assumptions using your owninsights and viewpoints, especially when critical issues are at stake.To quote Bucky Fuller, "Dare to be naïve!"
8. Solve Problems Through Action.Theories are not enough; they must be converted to projects that work(and continuously modified if they don't). The scope of BuckminsterFuller's curiosity and the range of his technical and artistic pursuitswere vast. And they were united by the common goal of providing humanitywith tools that benefited everyone. Fuller's deeds and projects broughthim great satisfaction over the years, regardless of their immediate
impact. And as his portfolio of discoveries grew, they served asinspiration for even greater breakthroughs.
9. Work Toward the Best Possible Future.Fuller believed in envisioning what the world should be like and thenworking hard to make that future a reality. Large and inspiringchanges are sometimes what's really needed, rather than smaller, saferincremental changes. Again, concentrate on the bigger picture, andstrive to develop a strong moral vision. For example: We know that wehave the technological capacity to meet the basic human needs of theentire planet and to do so in an environmentally sustainable way. Thebig questions are: How do we accomplish this goal, how long will ittake, and what's holding us back from achieving this?
10. Small Efforts Can Produce Big Results.That said, sometimes small, strategic actions can cause large-scalechange.
Picture the world as a sailing ship at sea. How best to navigate it?What direction is the world going in, and in which direction should itreally be headed? The guidelines for everyday leadership that emergefrom this approach are easy to list, but much more difficult toexecute:
* Know what ship you are steering. Are you trying to change theentire world, or just your own department? Determine which system youare seeking to steer or change direction.
* Know in what direction your ship is currently heading. Take a stepback and look at the big picture to see how your direction anddestination fit into the larger scheme of things.
* Be aware of the shifting winds and tides as you steer your ship.Develop your wide-angle vision and keep scanning that horizon!
* Decide where your ship ought to be going. This is often the mostcritical issue of leadership. What is the goal that you need to keepin sight so that you can respond to the changing currents of theenvironment and stay on target? (The target, by the way, is your long-term, big-picture goal, not next quarter's profit margin, share price,or units delivered.) How will your efforts help to increase overallglobal well-being?
* Know when and how to efficiently exert pressure on the rudder.Envision and plan how to make change happen. Move the rudder in theright direction, and learn how to continue navigating successfullythrough changing tides.
(adapted and excerpted from "The Anticipatory Leader: BuckminsterFuller's Principles for Making the World Work" by Medard Gabel and JimWalker. This article first appeared in the September-October 2006
issue of The Futurist.)
Other Resources:
Future, Inc.: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What's Next(Hardcover)by Eric Garland. AMACOM. 2006. 256 pages.Eric Garland a professional futurist and adviser to executives at topcorporations and government agencies, here provides many practicaltechniques for a wide range of businesses and industries in order for themto foresee their futures. He offers specific methodologies to assess howthe business environment is changing, and which changes are relevant."How can we overcome the systemic indifference to the mid and long-termfuture? Garland's book can be a giant step in that direction," writesconsulting futurist Joseph F. Coates.http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0814408974/thefuturistbooks
The Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in UncertainTimes by Bill Ralston and Ian Wilson. Thompson Publishing 2006. 256pages.Defines and explains various approaches to scenario planning inrigorous detail, but also features good information on scenariosgenerally. It includes real-world case studies of scenarios in actionat firms such as Nokia and Royal Dutch Shell, which was instrumentalin the popularization of the SRI scenario model. The authors alsodescribe how to use scenarios to create a "change-oriented culture"within an organization.http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0324312857/thefuturistbooks
Congratulations! You have just completed the series! I hope that youfound it to be useful and informative. Please let me know what youthought of the lessons in this series.
Best wishes and happy futuring!
Tim MackPresidentWorld Future Society
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