fundamental analysis - microsoft 14102016.pdf · the uk's services sector, which accounts for...
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14/10/2016
Fundamental Analysis
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Major events this week (October 10 - 14)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
6:00 am EUR German Trade Balance August 22.2B 19.4B
TUESDAY
9:00 am EUR ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment October 12.3 5.4
12:15 pm CAD Housing Starts (YoY) September 221K 182.7K
WEDNESDAY
9:00 am EUR Industrial Production (YoY) August 1.8% -0.5%
18:00 pm USD FOMC Minutes
THURSDAY
02:30 am CNY Trade Balance September 278.4B 346.05B
06:00 am EUR EU Extraordinary Economic Summit
12:30 pm USD Initial Jobless Claims October 246K 249K
FRIDAY
01:30 am CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) September 1.9% 1.3%
12:30 pm USD Retail Sales (MoM) September -0.3%
EU
Producer prices in the Euro zone dropped at a faster than expected pace in August, after rising for three consecutive months, official gugures revealed on Tuesday. According to the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat, the Producer Price Index for the region fell 0.2% on a monthly basis in August, compared to the preceding month's upwardly revised 0.3% gain, while market analysts expected producer prices to increase 0.1% in the reported month. On an annual basis, the PPI declined 2.1% in the same month, slightly up from the upwardly revised fall of 2.6% and in line with analysts' expectations. The August disappointing data congurmed that inflation pressures in the Euro zone remain weak. The drop was mainly driven by low energy prices, which fell 0.8% month-over-month in August. However, excluding energy prices, the PPI remained stable in the eight month of the year. Economists widely expect consumer prices to rise sharply in the gunal months of 2016 and in the early part of 2017.
UK
The UK's services sector, which accounts for more than 75% of the country's GDP, continued to grow in September after dropping sharply immediately after British public has voted to leave the European Union. The Final Markit/CIPS PMI services-sector index decreased to 52.6 in October from 52.9 noted during the previous month. The third-quarter reading showed the slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2012 thus underlying concerns surrounding the outlook will continue as Brexit uncertainty continues. New business, in turn, rose at the fastest pace since February, although it was still below the longer-term average, with overseas client orders boosted by Sterling weakness. Meanwhile, the data comes after outstanding manufacturing and construction PMI readings earlier this week, signaling the economy may be regaining its momentum. Also, Prime Minister Theresa May has signaled she is going to start the formal exit procedure by the end of the gurst quarter of 2017, beginning a two-year negotiation period.
US
Manufacturing activity in the United States rebounded in September after a disappointing August report, official data showed on Monday.The Institute for Supply Management said its Index of manufacturing activity advanced to 51.5 in September, following the previous month's 49.4, while market analysts pencilled in a 1.0 point-acceleration to 50.4 in the reported month. Back in August, manufacturing output contracted for the gurst time since February of this year, as only six out of 18 industries reported growth. A number below 50 points indicates contraction in the US manufacturing sector, while a number above indicates improving conditions. Furthermore, the New Orders Index rose to 55.1 the Employment Index jumped to 49.7 in September from last month's 49.1 and 48.3, respectively, while the Price Paid Index remained unchanged at 53.0, in line with analysts' expectations. The data indicated that nine of the 18 industries reported a rise in new orders, while 10 of the 18 industries reported an increase in production last month. After the release, the US Dollar rose against other major currencies, trading at 1.1217 against the Euro, 1.2833 against the Sterling and 101.44 against the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index rose 0.25% to 95.694.
Key highlights of the week ended October 7
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USD
“The underlying trend in imported deflation is improving and is consistent with a gradual waning of the drag from the stronger dollar and lower global commodity prices”. - Blerina Uruci, Barclays
Friday, October 14, 2016 07:30 GMT
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Trends* Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
MAX 140 121 120
75% percentile 108 110 110
Median 105 105 107
25% percentile 102 101 101
MIN 81 95 92 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Initial jobless claims hold at 43-year low last week; Import prices climb 0.1% in September High
The number of Americans guling for unemployment beneguts remained at its 43-year low last week, official gugures showed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims held at a seasonally adjusted 246,000 in the week ended October 8, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 252,000 during the reported period. Meanwhile, the preceding week’s gugure was revised down to 246,000 from the originally reported reading of 249,000. It was the 84th consecutive week of initial claims remaining below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. The four-moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, declined 3,500 to 249,250 last week, the lowest level since November 1973. The data also showed the number of continuing claims decreased 16,000 to 2.05 million in the week ending October 1, the lowest level since June 2000, while its four-week moving average fell 25,750 to 2.07 million. In a separate report, the Department of Labor said import prices rose 0.1% month-over-month in September, following August’s 0.2% drop and meeting analysts’ expectations. On an annual basis, import prices declined 1.1% in the same month, compared to the previous month’s 2.2% fall.
13.10 open price 13.10 close price % change
AUD/USD 0.75599 0.75682 +0.11%
USD/CHF 0.99045 0.98602 -0.45%
USD/JPY 104.217 103.68 -0.52%
NZD/USD 0.70603 0.70958 +0.50%
CNY
“This comes on the heels of weak South Korean trade data, and it definitely make us worry about to what extent global demand is improving”. - Luis Kujis, Oxford Economics
Friday, October 14, 2016 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Trends* Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
MAX 0.83 0.81 0.83
75% percentile 0.75 0.75 0.75
Median 0.74 0.73 0.72
25% percentile 0.71 0.71 0.71
MIN 0.67 0.64 0.62 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
China trade surplus decreases in September High
According to the General Administration of Customs, China’s trade balance weakened more than expected in September. Chinese trade surplus slipped to 278.4 billion yuan in September, comparing to 346 billion in August. Meanwhile, economists forecasted a fall to 300 billion yuan. Overall, China's September exports lost 10% from a year earlier, far worse than expected, while imports unexpectedly plunged after accelerating in August, hinting that signs of steadying in the world's second-largest economy may be short-lived. Also, the disappointing trade gugures indicating to weaker demand both in China and aboard, and accelerated concerns over the latest depreciation in China's yuan currency, which managed to hit a fresh six-year low against a gurming US dollar. Overall, data have highlighted growing imbalances in China's economy, with growth increasingly depended on government spending as private investment falls to record lows. Larger state gurms are expanding, while smaller manufacturers, in turn, continue to struggle. Eventually, the economy appears to have stabilized during the gurst half of the year, growing at an annualized 6.7% pace during the gurst two quarters.
13.10 open price 13.10 close price % change
AUD/JPY 78.792 78.452 -0.43%
AUD/USD 0.75599 0.75682 +0.11%
EUR/AUD 1.45554 1.46057 +0.34%
GBP/AUD 1.61346 1.61859 +0.32%
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events previous week (October 3 - 7)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
8:30 am GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI September 55.4 52.1 53.3
14:00 pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI September 51.5 50.5 49.4
TUESDAY
3:30 am AUD RBA Rate Statement September 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
9:00 am EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) August -2.1% -2.2% -2.6%
WEDNESDAY
8:00 pm EUR Markit Services PMI September 52.2 52.1 52.1
12:30 pm CAD Trade Balance September -1.9B -2.6B -2.1B
2:30 pm USD Crude Oil Inventories September -2.9M -1.9M
THURSDAY
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims September 249K 255K 254K
FRIDAY
08:30 am GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) September 0.2% 0.4% -0.9%
12:30 pm CAD Employment Change September 67.2K 10.0K 26.2K
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Rate September 5.0% 4.9% 4.9%
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Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
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