fuel fabrication today-to-tomorrow vp asia fuel ... · overall utility nuclear fuel costs sources:...
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Fuel FabricationFuel FabricationTodayToday--toto--TomorrowTomorrow
VP Asia FuelVP Asia FuelWestinghouse Electric CompanyWestinghouse Electric Company
Dr. V.J. EspositoDr. V.J. EspositoJanuary 26, 2009January 26, 2009
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Fuel Fabrication Outline
••Fuel Value ChainFuel Value Chain••Fuel Assembly ProcessFuel Assembly Process
-- Manufacturing Manufacturing -- Design Design -- EngineeringEngineering
••Global CapacityGlobal Capacity••Prediction of Fuel DemandPrediction of Fuel Demand••Assurance of Fuel Assembly SupplyAssurance of Fuel Assembly Supply••ConclusionConclusion
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Fabrication7%
Conversion4%
Uranium58%
Fuel27% O&M
73%
Enrichment31%
Overall Utility Nuclear Fuel CostsSources:O&M vs. fuel NEI 2007Fuel procurement costs from Trade Tech Jan 2009
Disposal Costs are not included
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Fuel Value ChainTrade Tech Long Term Price Indicators, January 9, 2009
U3O8 Conversion Enrichment Fabrication Back-end
Unit $ 70/lb U3O8 $ 12.25/KgUn $ 159/SWU $ 300/KgU ??? Price
Price $ 2,047/KgU $ 137/KgU $ 1,114/KgU $ 300/KgU ???/KgU
Cumul. $ 2,047/KgU $ 2,184/KgU $ 3,298/KgU $ 3,598/KgU
Percent 57% 4% 31% 8%
For 1 KgU at 4.90 w/o and tails assay of 0.3 w/oFor 1 KgU at 4.90 w/o and tails assay of 0.3 w/o
F/P = 11.192214 (KgUn / KgU)F/P = 11.192214 (KgUn / KgU)S/P = 7.003813 (SWU / KgU)S/P = 7.003813 (SWU / KgU)
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Key Elements for Fuel Fabrication and Engineering:Key Elements for Fuel Fabrication and Engineering:
Fuel Assembly is an engineered productFuel Assembly is an engineered product
Slide 5
•• Zirconium Zirconium ProductsProducts
•• TubingTubing
•• Fuel Fabrication Fuel Fabrication and Transportand Transport
•• ComponentsComponents•• UF6 to UO2 UF6 to UO2
•• Powder/PelletsPowder/Pellets•• RodsRods•• Structural Structural ComponentsComponents•• Final Fuel AssemblyFinal Fuel Assembly
•• Engineering Engineering TechnologyTechnology
•• Analytical ModelsAnalytical Models•• Power Power
RequirementsRequirements•• Core ConfigurationCore Configuration•• LicensingLicensing
•• Material Material •• TREX, Coil, BarTREX, Coil, Bar
•• Cladding Cladding
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Fuel Fabrication Process
UF6
Grids & Skeletons
Convertto UO2Powder
Pellets- UO2-Burnable absorber
Fuel Rods
Fuel Assemblies
Tubing, Springs& End Plugs Nozzles
UNH
Zirc Material -Coil
Recycle
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Fuel Assembly TechnologyFuel Design:Fuel Design:
-- Analytical Model to simulate fuel assembly in the coreAnalytical Model to simulate fuel assembly in the core•Neutronic•Mechanical/Material•Thermal-Hydraluics•Safety Analysis
-- Separate Effect and Plant Test DataSeparate Effect and Plant Test Data•DNB•Mechanical •Material Corrosion•Pressure Drop•Temperature Profile
-- LicensingLicensing•Safety Analysis•Regulatory Criteria
-- QA/QC QA/QC
-- Fuel PerformanceFuel Performance•Power Requirements
•Cycle Length•Enrichment•Number of Fuel Assemblies•Operating parameters (shut down margin, burn-up)
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Fuel Designs: Fuel Suppliers have different designs/materials/engineering methFuel Suppliers have different designs/materials/engineering methodologyodology
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LWR Current FabricationNominal Plant CapacityNominal Plant Capacity
MTU/yearMTU/year LWR Uranium Oxide Fabrication Facilities Nominal Plant Capacities MTU/Year (1/1/2008)
Country Operator Facility Powder Pellet Assembly Belgium AREVA NP EU Dessel 0 700 700 Brazil INB-Resende FCN Resende 165 120 240 China Jianzhong Jianzhong 400 400 450 France AREVA NP EU Romans 1200 820 820 Germany AREVA NP EU Lingen Fab 650 650 650 India NFC-Hyderabd Hyderabad 48 48 48 Japan NFI-Kum/Tok Kumatori 0 360 284 MNF-TokaiMur Tokai MNF 475 440 440 NFI-Kum/Tok Tokai NFI 0 250 250 JNF-Yokosuka Yokosuka 0 620 750
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LWR Current Fabrication (cont’d)
C o u n try O p e ra to r F a c ility P o w d e r P e lle t A s s e m b ly K a za k h s ta n K a za to m p ro m U lb a 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
R u ss ia T V E L -E le /N o v E le m a s h 1 0 0 0 8 5 0 7 8 5
T V E L -E le /N o v N o vo s ib irs k 1 5 0 1 5 0 1 0 0 0 S o u th K o re a
K N F C -D a e je o n D a e je o n 6 0 0 6 0 0 6 0 0
S p a in E N U S A -J u zb a d J u zb a d o 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 S w e d e n W e s tS E -V a s V a s te ra s 5 3 0 5 3 0 4 0 0 U .S .A . W e s tU S -C o lu m C o lu m b ia F a b 1 3 5 0 1 5 0 0 1 5 0 0 A R E V A N P U S L yn c h b u rg 0 0 7 0 0 A R E V A N P U S R ic h la n d 1 8 0 0 7 0 0 7 0 0 G N F -W ilm in g t W ilm in g to n 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 U n ite d K in g d o m
W e s tU K -S p rin S p rin g f ie ld s 4 4 0 4 4 0 0
T o ta l M T U /Y e a r 1 2 8 0 8 1 1 6 7 8 1 1 8 1 7
* S o u rc e N A C O c t 2 0 0 8
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Nuclear Renaissance
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1990 1995 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025
Asia
Europe
U.S.
Rest of World
ForecastElectricity Demand (Billion KWh)
• Growing demand for clean, safe electricity• Growing demand for clean, safe electricity
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Today’s Regional LWR
Demands vs. CapacityDemands vs. Capacity
US: ~2200 ~4000Western Europe: ~2000 ~3500Asia: ~1250 ~1500
Demand(MTU/yr)
Capacity(MTU/yr)
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Growth Projections for Nuclear Power
EIA 2008 Data:EIA 2008 Data:
Global Increase ~150 GWe by 2025
WNA Data:WNA Data:Global Increase ~80 GWe by 2020
~150 GWe by 2030
IAEA 2008 Data:IAEA 2008 Data:Global Increase by 2030Low End: ~60 GWeHigh End: ~300 GWe
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NEA Projections: GWeGWe Growth RangeGrowth Range
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
7 0 0
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 8 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 0
Glo
bal N
ucle
ar C
apac
ity (G
We)
H ig h L o w
NEA Projections**NEA Projections**
****NEA, Nuclear Engineering Outlook 2008NEA, Nuclear Engineering Outlook 2008
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Projection for MTU of Fabricated Fuel
0
2 ,0 00
4 ,0 00
6 ,0 00
8 ,0 00
1 0 ,0 00
1 2 ,0 00
1 4 ,0 00
1 6 ,0 00
2 008 20 09 2 01 0 20 11 20 12 2 01 3 20 14 201 5 2 01 6 20 17 201 8 2 019 20 20 2 02 1 2 022 20 23 2 02 4 20 25 20 26 2 02 7 20 28 202 9 2 03 0
Fuel
Fab
ricat
ion
Req
uire
men
ts (M
TU)
H igh Lo w
Global CapacityGlobal Capacity11,80011,800
Projection for MTU of Fabricated Fuel*Projection for MTU of Fabricated Fuel*
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Fuel Design/License/FabricationTo answer the question regarding demand vs. capacity, questions To answer the question regarding demand vs. capacity, questions on a local basis need to be answered:on a local basis need to be answered:
Where will the demand for fuel assemblies be by country?Where will the demand for fuel assemblies be by country?
How big will the demand be by country?How big will the demand be by country?
What new plant design is to be chosen?What new plant design is to be chosen?
Where is the capacity to serve the demand?Where is the capacity to serve the demand?
Will countries develop indigenous capability?Will countries develop indigenous capability?
These questions require a countryThese questions require a country--byby--country assessment from the country assessment from the perspective of growth rate, capacity strategy, government aspectperspective of growth rate, capacity strategy, government aspects and s and
available options.available options.
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Fuel Assembly – Demand vs. Capacity
• Somewhat different than uranium (U308) or enrichment, the final fuel assembly is likely to be different from one supplier to another, either because of design, material, license …
• Fuel Assembly is an engineered product
• Fuel Assembly Supply is much more “local” than “global”LicensingDesignTransportationGovernmental RequirementsNew Plant Design
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Risk – Assurance of Fuel Assembly Availability
• A fuel supplier having the ability to manufacture specific fuel design in multiple countries.
- Cross Qualification of Designs- Integrated Engineering Methodology
• Ability to use fuel supplier licensees to manufacture and perform the engineering analysis.
• Potential to expand licensee rights beyond local boundaries
• Potential Strategic Inventory of fuel assemblies
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Conclusions
•Capacity growth studies are highly variable50 GWe - >300 GWe
•Current and Planned Global Capacity available for significant increase in new plants, however, only from a global aspect.
•Local capacity will be required to address regional growth.
•Transportation capability is an important element to achieve better globalization
•Local or Regional production is likely more important than global availability which can result in capacity short falls